Are you Trusting 3rd String Cleveland QB to Cover?

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold, let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on favorites like the Eagles, off a win against a division rival, when playing football on the first day of a new work week. This system is 30-10 ATS, 75 percent the last decade.

Carolina Favored with Home Field Advantage

For this Monday Night, ESPN has their best game involving two exceptional teams from the NFC South. Carolina is the home team in this battle, facing Tampa Bay for sole possession of first place in the division. Based on how the season is playing out in NFL’s best and most competitive division, the Panthers could have a distinct edge. The four teams in this division are 22-2, 17-6-1 against the spread in 2008. (Not counting Saints trip to England as home game)

Tampa Bay can be coldly efficient, if not explosive, and won their fourth straight game, in 23-20 non-cover against New Orleans last week. Quarterback Jeff Garcia completed just 9 of 23 passes for 119 yards, and Tampa Bay gained only 254 yards of total offense, but the defense picked off three passes and held the Saints to 44 yards rushing on 18 carries. Traveling to Charlotte, they are in the middle of playing three NFC South contests.

The modus operandi for Jon Gruden is simple: control the clock, make one or two big plays and use a bone-crunching defense to wear down opponents. Running back Earnest Graham was recently lost for the year with an ankle injury, but it coincided with the return of Carnell Williams, out for 15 months (knee). The “Cadillac” has 16 carries in two games and scored his first touchdown since September 2007 in the win over New Orleans. Warrick Dunn has assumed the lead role, but the 12-year veteran isn’t the featured back of season’s past. He did, however, net his only 100-yard game of the year in the previous meeting with Carolina, a 27-3 win for Tampa Bay on Oct. 12. The Buccaneers are 29-2 ATS when they win straight up away in division games.

Carolina had its back against the wall in Green Bay last week, but a 54-yard completion from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith to the Packers 1-yard line set up the winning touchdown with 1:30 to play in a 35-31 win.

DeAngelo Williams scored a career-high four touchdowns and gets a chance to avenge his worst game of the season, an 11-carry, 27-yard effort at Tampa Bay. He’s all but wrestled the position away from rookie Jonathan Stewart, who’s nursing a heel injury and was caught from behind at the Green Bay 3-yard line on a 43-yard run last week. Williams scored all four his touchdowns from the 1-yard line against the Packers. The Panthers are 17-6 ATS in home games after being out-gained by opposition by 100 or more total yards in last game.

Delhomme was picked off three times in the earlier 27-3 loss to the Bucs but has had their number in previous meetings, throwing for 948 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts in the series. The quarterback has done his best work at home, leading the Panthers to a perfect 6-0 (3-2-1 ATS) mark while throwing nine of his 12 touchdown passes but just three of his nine interceptions.

Smith continued his tear over the last six weeks, topping the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in seven games and started the run with 112 yards at Tampa Bay.

Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorite, with a total of 38. In one of the best angles you will find this season, the Panthers 17-0 UNDER at home against division foes.

Tampa Bay covers if they can get off to a better start. The Bucs have been tempting fate with 6-1 record when the other team scores first. True, it speaks to resolve and an excellent defense; however in big games on the road, they could be caught. Tampa Bay is average in third down conversions and could keep the Panthers on the field by converting at a higher rate. Carolina has allowed over 138 yards rushing per game the last month, Gruden assuredly will ride his “Cadillac”, trying to make the underdog 10-4 ATS.

Carolina covers if the defense steps up. The Cats “D” has surrendered 98 points the last three weeks, totally unacceptable for a team with real postseason aspirations. Coach John Fox defenders need to keep Garcia in a bubble, not letting his escape to beat them. At least the Panthers are winning the turnover battle and are 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. On offense, be imaginative like they were against Green Bay and be the aggressor.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.

Green Bay Has Covered on the Road

After upending Minnesota in Week 1, Green Bay will try for another win on Monday night at the expense of New Orleans, which dropped a heartbreaker to those same Vikings on a Monday night four weeks later. With the NFC North still wide open, the Packers (5-5, 6-3-1 ATS) have hurt their chances by losing three games by three points or fewer. A classic example is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team dropping a tough overtime contest to Tennessee one week and following that by losing to Minnesota by a point when kicker Mason Crosby missed a long field goal late at the Metrodome.

Despite the pressure of taking the reins from Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has settled in quite nicely with 2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first season as a starter. Rodgers also has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown touchdown passes to seven different players, including five to receiver Greg Jennings.

Defensively, Green Bay lost a key cog in the linebacker corps when Nick Barnett went down with an ACL injury, leaving the middle linebacker spot to A.J. Hawk, who along with the secondary, have been stellar against the pass, ranking #3 in the NFL, allowing 176.5 yards a game, and shut down Chicago in last week’s 37-3 romp. Needless to say, the secondary will face a stern test from quarterback Drew Brees; however have a couple of angles in their favor. The Pack has covered seven straight in dome surroundings and is 15-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

A 30-20 win over lowly Kansas City saved the season for the New Orleans (6-4 ATS), who improved to 5-5. Unfortunately, capturing the NFC South crown is a pipedream, but head coach Sean Payton’s team feels a red-hot Brees could propel them to a wild-card spot.

When he is not yelling at tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees has been lighting it up with a league-leading 3,251 passing yards and 18 touchdowns and should easily surpass the 4,423 yards he threw for a year ago. Another reason Brees could accomplish that feat is the return of wideout Marques Colston, who showed encouraging signs by snagging seven balls for 140 yards in the loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

The possible return of Reggie Bush from knee surgery is an added boost to a New Orleans rushing attack that averages only 91 yards a game. Granted, the Saints have been trailing in most games and have resorted to passing more, but power runners like Deuce McAllister (299 yards) and Pierre Thomas (238) have struggled in Bush’s absence. At least this season, the Saints have been marching home to victory more often with 3-1 SU and ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has New Orleans as jovial one-point home favorite, finally playing at the Superdome for the first time since Oct.12. Considering both teams have the ability to score points and have suspect defenses with weak elements, the total of 51.5 seems like a natural to go over, especially with these teams a combined 22-6 OVER after one or more straight victories. Nonetheless, there is a Totals system to consider- Play Under on any team like the Saints where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. The system is a slick 19-3 since 2004.

Green Bay covers if they protect Rodgers like they did last week against Chicago, not like they did versus Minnesota. If the offensive line blocks well enough for RB Ryan Grant to have success again, this opens up the passing game against Saints secondary that ranks 26th. The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, which is important against Brees, who though talented, is mildly vertically challenged. Bat down a few passes to make New Orleans adjust pocket. The Green and Gold is 7-1 ATS in November.

New Orleans covers if they get pressure up the middle, since Rodgers has shown a tendency to hang onto the ball a little too long. The defensive backs have to tackle well and limit the number of gains over 10 yards. Get the running game going, testing what has been a vulnerable front seven for Green Bay. If Reggie Bush is truly ready, see how the Packers linebackers handle him is open areas.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.

Monday Night Betting Matchup

In terms of coaching matchups, it hardly gets any better than this in the NFL with Mike Shanahan versus Bill Belichick. The sideline chess game may be just as good as the one on the field. Both head coaches could be poster boys for “No Guts, No Glory,” especially Shanahan, who went for two points and the win against San Diego in Week 2.

Belichick’s probably the only other coach with enough confidence in his team, and desire to drop the hammer on an opponent. And you can bet he’ll be ready to go for broke given Shanahan’s current three-game winning streak in the series and Denver 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in New England.

The Pats return home after splitting a West Coast trip to San Francisco and San Diego. Despite the loss of Tom Brady, New England is 3-2 (2-3 ATS) after a 30-10 loss against the Chargers last Sunday night. New England wasn’t going to beat San Diego last week; however that game illustrated Matt Cassel’s issues.

Besides taking far too many sacks (19), Cassel’s is slow to react to what is placed in front of him on the football field. Speaking to a person who watches tape on every NFL game, Cassel’s lacks presence in the pocket and finding open receivers at this level of football. He expressed it was clear, despite physical talent, his not starting a football game since high school limits the scope of what he is capable of, thus the vertical passing game of the Patriots is strictly hit or miss. He will be helped playing at Gillette Stadium where New England is 37-21 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.

He takes aim at a Denver defense that continues to sputter, being ranked 30th no matter where it plays. The Broncos fell for the second time in three weeks, losing at home to Jacksonville, 24-17, and the defense was gored for 416 yards, including 276 yards through the air by David Garrard.

The Pats can still score in bunches and from anywhere—just ask the 49ers, who watched Randy Moss burn the secondary for a 66-yard touchdown. What New England desperately needs to improve is a running game split amongst three players (Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and Laurence Maroney), none of whom have distinguished themselves. For the bruising—and often bruised—Maroney and shifty Morris at least Denver’s defense, which allows an average of 137.5 yards per game, offers an opportunity to get on the right track. They will seek to get back to normal off of loss at San Diego, which was first spread loss in October in three seasons.

Jay Cutler looked like the second coming of John Elway as the Broncos averaged 38 points in their first three games. Since then an inexplicable loss to Kansas City, a defensive squeaker against the Bucs and a dull effort against Jacksonville. The Broncos have serious problems on defense against the run and pass and scoring 17.3 points a game like they have in the last three outings won’t mask them.

Bookmaker.com has seen New England hold steady as a three-point favorite, with the total having rose to 48 points. What’s intriguing about the upward movement of the total is Denver is 4-12 ATS when both teams score 20 or more points and New England is 43-18 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points.

Denver covers if they confuse Cassel and make him uncomfortable. Stop the run on the early downs against the Patriots and force Cassel to make plays down the field. Cutler needs to be smarter with the football, as they have seven turnovers in two losses. Cutler needs to be patient, since the New England defense is beatable. If the Broncos maximize efficiency, they move to 15-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games

New England covers by finding Randy Moss. Last week Moss started to revert to Oakland day’s, looking disinterested, get him the ball. Belichick has to change up defense to get more pressure, as defensive backs are below average and can be beaten on middle to deep patterns when the quarterback has time to throw. The offensive line has to block well and control the game. With the total at present figure, it favors the Pats, with Denver disastrous 0-11 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.

Our Monday night system looks to play against any away underdog that has failed to cover its last two games. This system is 19-8 ATS, 70.3 percent.