Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Carolina Favored with Home Field Advantage

For this Monday Night, ESPN has their best game involving two exceptional teams from the NFC South. Carolina is the home team in this battle, facing Tampa Bay for sole possession of first place in the division. Based on how the season is playing out in NFL’s best and most competitive division, the Panthers could have a distinct edge. The four teams in this division are 22-2, 17-6-1 against the spread in 2008. (Not counting Saints trip to England as home game)

Tampa Bay can be coldly efficient, if not explosive, and won their fourth straight game, in 23-20 non-cover against New Orleans last week. Quarterback Jeff Garcia completed just 9 of 23 passes for 119 yards, and Tampa Bay gained only 254 yards of total offense, but the defense picked off three passes and held the Saints to 44 yards rushing on 18 carries. Traveling to Charlotte, they are in the middle of playing three NFC South contests.

The modus operandi for Jon Gruden is simple: control the clock, make one or two big plays and use a bone-crunching defense to wear down opponents. Running back Earnest Graham was recently lost for the year with an ankle injury, but it coincided with the return of Carnell Williams, out for 15 months (knee). The “Cadillac” has 16 carries in two games and scored his first touchdown since September 2007 in the win over New Orleans. Warrick Dunn has assumed the lead role, but the 12-year veteran isn’t the featured back of season’s past. He did, however, net his only 100-yard game of the year in the previous meeting with Carolina, a 27-3 win for Tampa Bay on Oct. 12. The Buccaneers are 29-2 ATS when they win straight up away in division games.

Carolina had its back against the wall in Green Bay last week, but a 54-yard completion from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith to the Packers 1-yard line set up the winning touchdown with 1:30 to play in a 35-31 win.

DeAngelo Williams scored a career-high four touchdowns and gets a chance to avenge his worst game of the season, an 11-carry, 27-yard effort at Tampa Bay. He’s all but wrestled the position away from rookie Jonathan Stewart, who’s nursing a heel injury and was caught from behind at the Green Bay 3-yard line on a 43-yard run last week. Williams scored all four his touchdowns from the 1-yard line against the Packers. The Panthers are 17-6 ATS in home games after being out-gained by opposition by 100 or more total yards in last game.

Delhomme was picked off three times in the earlier 27-3 loss to the Bucs but has had their number in previous meetings, throwing for 948 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts in the series. The quarterback has done his best work at home, leading the Panthers to a perfect 6-0 (3-2-1 ATS) mark while throwing nine of his 12 touchdown passes but just three of his nine interceptions.

Smith continued his tear over the last six weeks, topping the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in seven games and started the run with 112 yards at Tampa Bay.

Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorite, with a total of 38. In one of the best angles you will find this season, the Panthers 17-0 UNDER at home against division foes.

Tampa Bay covers if they can get off to a better start. The Bucs have been tempting fate with 6-1 record when the other team scores first. True, it speaks to resolve and an excellent defense; however in big games on the road, they could be caught. Tampa Bay is average in third down conversions and could keep the Panthers on the field by converting at a higher rate. Carolina has allowed over 138 yards rushing per game the last month, Gruden assuredly will ride his “Cadillac”, trying to make the underdog 10-4 ATS.

Carolina covers if the defense steps up. The Cats “D” has surrendered 98 points the last three weeks, totally unacceptable for a team with real postseason aspirations. Coach John Fox defenders need to keep Garcia in a bubble, not letting his escape to beat them. At least the Panthers are winning the turnover battle and are 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. On offense, be imaginative like they were against Green Bay and be the aggressor.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.