The Sunday Setup

Closed with a 2-1-1 day and have a system on a sorry NFL underdog that is 28-6 ATS. Speaking of pooches, have a great angles on another dog at 84.6 percent. The Free Play is an AFC divisional matchup. Good Luck

What I know today – Being a sports bettor is much easier than betting horses. (Lots of longshots at Turf Paradise yesterday and the #5 cashed the first eight races)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On teams like Washington after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous contest, in conference games. Since 2004, this system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Houston Texans are 11-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit seven of last nine plays in the NFL and has Pittsburgh as his play.

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Houston in Big Division Matchup

Two weeks after Texans suffered a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis; their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessee’s Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.

The 5-4 Texans have had 15 days ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, as Kris Brown’s last second potential game-tying 42-yard field goal attempt sailed wide left, and now they prepare for first true franchise run toward the postseason. How Houston (5-3-1 ATS) comes out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much they’ve grown. They have won two straight against Tennessee, but only by a combined four points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 4-10 ATS against a team who won last game by 14 or more points.

The Tennessee Titans (3-6, 4-5 ATS) have opened a Pandora’s Box of questions in winning three in a row after losing first six games of the season. Should Tennessee and coach Jeff Fisher be praised for turning season around or chastised for protracted beginning of the year? Coach Fisher, who didn’t appear to be any fan of Vince Young, was left with little choice but to play the former Texas star after humbling 59-0 pasting by New England.

Young has brought energy to the offense in his three starts and been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in leading his squad to a trio of wins and covers.

Coach Fisher’s club is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six AFC South contests, however is 12-3 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Houston as four-point favorites with a total of 48 and Schaub assuredly will attack the Titans 31st ranked pass defense from the start. The Texans are 13-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt and are 12-3 OVER versus division opponents over the last three seasons.

Tennessee’s running game keys their offense and they are 16-6 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Tonight’s visitors are 10-2 UNDER on the road revenging a close loss by seven points or less.

Tennessee covers if they run the ball effectively against Houston’s 14th ranked run defense. The Texans are not known for gap control, which is real plus for Johnson, who can pop into the secondary in a heartbeat. Last week Buffalo made life tough on the Titans by playing eight-men in the box and press coverage on their unimpressive receivers, before self-destructing. With Houston having two weeks to prepare, Tennessee will see more the same, which means taking shots down the field. Young’s arm is more than strong enough; he just needs the pass catchers to make a few plays. After a mediocre start, the Titans pass rush is coming along and they will need to pressure Schaub. Monday night road teams with only one appearance on the season are 34-17-2 ATS, including 5-2 ATS in 2009.

Houston covers if they create a semblance of a running game with zone-blocking scheme. Granted, the Texans are 28th rushing the pigskin, but Tennessee is nothing special stopping the run (16th) and is vulnerable against teams that run and pass the ball effectively. This helps Schaub, whose been forced to throw the ball too often, which has led to nine picks. Just keeping the Titans honest on defense allows Houston to play to their strength, the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against them. Though Young has shown greater maturity and better decision-making, a steady pass rush that doesn’t allow him to leave the pocket makes a below average passer even worse. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Texans post-bye week games since 2003.

Monday Night System – Same as last week’s, Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (12-2 ATS L16Y, 2-0 this season)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

It's the halfway point of NFL regular season

It was an ordinary day at 2-2. Today we bring in a hot NFL bettor who’s over 77 percent the last three weeks. The Top Trend is a double angle on the same game. What game you ask, read on. The Best System is 81.6 percent and in the Bay Area. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – Charley Weis will make a tremendous offensive coordinator and quarterback coach when he’s back in the NFL. Has Oklahoma really lost four games this season? Who would ever believe Bob Stoops brother would have a better record than him in any season. Could the USC offense possibly look any worse? Purdue wins at Michigan for the first time since 1966, when Bob Greise was the quarterback AND punter!!!

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs or pick like Tennessee who have been outscored by opponents by four or more points game, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This system is 26-6 ATS, 81.6 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Double angle- Arizona is 10-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored and Chicago is 1-11 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

Free Football Pick -3) Randy of the Left Coast Connection is 14-4 in the NFL the last three weeks and has Houston as Top Pick.

NFL Week 9 Sunday Key Info

New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.

Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.

Keys to the Game-

Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.

Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50

Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.

Keys to the Game-

Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.

Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5

Miami at New England 1:00E CBS

The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.

Keys to the Game-

Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.

3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5

Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX

New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.

Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5

San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS

Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.

Keys to the Game-

Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.

The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.

StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

We’ve all heard veteran NFL players talk about the league as “just a business”. If you think of the National Football like say a McDonald’s, you have 32 franchisees within its framework. While Mickey D’s would never allow certain bone-headed people to be in charge of their operations, on Sunday, we saw the differences in a well-run franchise and one’s that should be going out of business or at least hanging signs “Under new ownership”.

The slogan “Pride and Poise” associated with the Oakland franchise is hilarious today and should be replaced with “Polluted and Pitiful”. On Sunday, the Raiders were down 28-0 before registering a first down. JaMarcus Russell is setting new standards for quarterback play in the NFL; even Ryan Leaf will soon be forgotten.

When Al Davis moves on to the big black and silver cloud in the sky, he will have ruined a legacy of innovation and excellence for decades, by not knowing when to step away and being a meddler. Oakland’s ability to overpay for unworthy talent and ridiculous draft choices is now looked upon as “well its Oakland”. As written by Len Pasquarelli of ESPN, of the Raiders 56 viable possessions (not including drives with under two minutes in the half) they have 34 series that lasted three plays or less and 40 that were for five snaps or fewer.

Contrast that with the Giants, a well run franchise, with coach Tom Coughlin as head coach. Coughlin had the good sense to reinvent a part of himself and an underachieving team responded by winning a Super Bowl and has been an annual contender for years. New York was easily more than a two touchdown favorite and the word out of Giants camp was Coughlin was preaching all week not to take the Raiders lightly, stay focused and play our game. New York’s diligence in listening was rewarded with several starters not playing more than two-thirds of the game and virtually all the reserves saw considerable action in 44-7 pasting.

The same was true in St. Louis, as certain folks believed Minnesota might be flat on short week and playing road game against winless Rams. The Vikings went off as 10.5-point favorites and whether they were ready to play or not, it was impossible to tell because of the Rams ineptness. St. Louis is another franchise that has been run aground and at least has made an attempt to change with new people in all keys management positions. But with a shocking lack of talent, this isn’t one of those Miami Dolphins turnarounds, this will take time.

Whatever your opinion of Brett Favre, give the Vikings front office their due, they are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) for the first time in six years and pegged the person they believed could make them a true Super Bowl contender.

Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota and the Giants all know what lies ahead for 2009 and their perspectives are very different.

You had to be really impressed with Atlanta coach Mike Smith and how his staff wisely used the bye week. The Falcons used new toy TE Tony Gonzalez like a child, throwing to him over and over again in the first few games, making their home-run hitter and budding star Roddy White an afterthought. Smith had QB Matt Ryan intent on throwing the ball on the perimeter; against what were thought to be very good San Francisco corners. Ryan was on target and White caught eight passes that he turned into 210 yards in Falcons flushing of the Niners 45-10 as one-point underdogs. Interestingly, the money came all Sunday morning on Atlanta, starting the day as 2.5-point underdogs. Next Sunday’s game with Chicago is tantalizing.

While Cincinnati is well-known for its frugal methods (cheap in the real world) they deserve accolades for staying with coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have had a series of injury-plagued seasons and lacked the depth to replace with quality players. Carson Palmer, either being injured or playing hurt, has cost them in two of the last three seasons. Cincinnati has played five games with each contest being decided by a touchdown or less, but at least they are finding ways to win with rededicated Cedric Benson on offense and more aggressive defense. The Cats host Houston and they are 5-13-2 ATS as non-division home favorites.

In the first half, the Dallas Cowboys players where shaking their heads after every bad play, a real sign of each player on his own page. Yes, they sucked it up and came back and defeated Kansas City in non-cover 26-20, but when you consider Oakland defeated the Chiefs in four quarters, that’s a real cause for concern. We’ll see how much it means after their bye week.

I’m convinced the Houston Texans will never be more than a 9-7 team and hardly ever worse than 7-9 with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Houston’s game against Arizona sums up Shaub in a nutshell. The Texans never scored in the first half, trailing 21-0. Shaub finally got in sync with his receivers and Houston scored 21 unanswered points to tie the score at 21. With a chance to drive his team to take the lead, Shaub stared down his receiver like he was looking at Megan Fox, and frequently burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted the pass for a Pick Six. Shaub did drive his team back down the field for tying score, but threw a jittery pass in the end zone and missed open receiver on great play call. The Texans are in the midst of playing four of five on the road and chances are they are just as likely to be a good bet as bad. Next up is Cincinnati and Houston is 44-44 ATS since joining the league against the AFC.

Surprised the Raiders aren’t trying to make deal for Derrick Anderson after he was 2 for 17 and Cleveland still won and covered. To Anderson’s credit he actually completed one more pass making his completion percentage 15 percent, it just happen to be to Buffalo player. Cleveland ended 10-game losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) at Buffalo and heads to Pittsburgh where they are 1-9 (3-7 ATS) since becoming the Browns again in 1999.

Coach Dick Jauron and his offensive staff are clueless. They acquire Terrell Owens and have no idea how to get him the ball. The Bills are like somebody who always fries steaks in a pan, because the meat is usually cheap. Somebody buys them a sharp new grill and some beautifully tender porterhouse steaks to grill up. Instead, what do these people do with delicious looking meat, what they always, fry it in the pan. Unless Buffalo miraculously wins its next three games before the bye, I wouldn’t stray too far from the phone if I was Jauron, who is 4-13 and 6-11 ATS since opening 4-0 in 2008.

Monday Night Football Preview with Caveat

The vast majority of people are sick to death hearing about a quarterback that has worn the number four in Green Bay and for one season in New York. Because my bosses demand I write an article about tonight’s Minnesota at Houston matchup, they didn’t tell me I had to mention this person from Mississippi by name. In staying with the theme from Sports Illustrated this week (100% F_ _ _ E Free Issue), I’ll avoid using his name.

Minnesota’s newest quarterback played only briefly last week and reports are he will see considerable action on this televised contest. (The rumor is untrue John Madden will come out of retirement to do this game) The worldwide leader in sports newest NFL reporter Adam Shefter has reported there is a "schism" in the Vikings locker room concerning what teammates think about the veteran quarterback, compared to those already on hand. Upon further review, those close to the team have found this not to be the case, with a few dissenting voices, but hardly the next Civil War to start in Minnesota.

The Vikings have won and covered both their preseason encounters and will have to settle on a backup quarterback. Sage Rosenfels missed last week with an ankle and Tarvaris Jackson, thought to be the goner when the Wrangler jeans pitchman was signed, took full advantage of the situation, completing 12 of 15 passes against Kansas City for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Vikings as 3.5-point road underdogs, with a total of 39.

Houston hasn’t had the drama seen in the Twin Cities, but there was a many long faces after the Texans were blasted by 38-14 by New Orleans as three-point home favorites last week. The Houston defense was scorched for 420 yards by the Saints and some members of the defensive line are on the firing line. In particular, starting defensive tackle Amobi Okoye has come under scrutiny. Now in his third season though only 21 years old, the Nigerian hasn’t progressed as some would like to see for the 10th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. A solid game against a good Minnesota offensive line would help quell dissatisfaction.

Quarterback Matt Schaub leads what should a potent Houston attack, with numerous weapons like Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter. The Texans are 6-4 and 4-3-3 ATS playing at home in August football since 2004 and have covered their last three Week 3 assignments.

Minnesota is 24-13-1 ATS in their last 38 underdog roles and is 16-5 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points in the preseason. From situational perspective, the Vikings could be in a hole, since they are 0-7 ATS on the road versus opponent off a 10 or more point loss.

ESPN will have the first ever preseason meeting between these teams at 8 Eastern. Don’t you wonder what one of the main story lines will be?

First Monday Night Home Game for Texans

In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.

Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread on Sept.28. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.

The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn). This was just the Texans second road win and cover in 13 games.

The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.

Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September. Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns. Playing against Jacksonville is a real boost of confidence for Houston, who is 7-6 and 10-3 ATS versus the Jags.

Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7 with 3-8 against the spread record. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced again.

Garrard has failed to continue the success and progression from a year ago and has only nine touchdown passes through 11 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as a three-point favorite, with a total of 48. This will be only the third time the Texans have been favored in this series in 13 meetings, thou they were an expansion team early on. With Monday night games on 12-1 OVER roll this season, this one is worth a look also. The Jaguars are 8-1 OVER as a road underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans are amazing 10-0 OVER versus AFC South opponents over the same time span.

Jacksonville covers if they protect Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. The patchwork offensive line is springing more leaks than a White House classified report. The Houston run defense is beatable, meaning Jones-Drew and friends can have enough moments to matter. The passing game has become real predictable. Any empty backfield means slant to Matt Jones or seam route to Mercedes Lewis, with bailout to Jones-Drew. Throw down the field and maybe the Jags improve to 13-3-1 ATS as division road underdogs.

Houston covers if they keep finding Johnson, since they have won four of the six games he has 100 yards or more receiving. His presence has opened up Kevin Walter, who has seven touchdowns this season. Their running backs are beat up; however spot production is necessary against pedestrian Jaguars defense. The defense forced five turnovers last week, unlikely to happen again, but the same aggressive attitude could take the Texans to 12-5 ATS hosting division rivals.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any Monday night road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in consecutive games. This system is 20-9 ATS, 68.9 percent.