MLB Series Wagering- Cardinals at Phillies

The last time the Philadelphia Phillies were playing this well, they were on their way to a World Series title. The Phillies are working on a third consecutive NL East division title, having won 15 of last 17 games. Philadelphia (54-39, +8.5 units) is the most offensive team in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game. The have great diversity, being able to get runners on base and stealing bases to keep the opposing pitcher and defense on edge. If they trail in a contest, the batting order is loaded with big boppers who can help them come from behind.

St. Louis (52-46, -1.2 units) was able to help itself out of mini-slump like many have before them by beating Washington in a rain-shorten makeup game Thursday. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in last 10 games and have seen NL Central lead diminish to 1.5 games. They arrive in the City of Brotherly Love 5-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

J.A. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) will be the opening game starter for the Phillies, which could be his last based on circulating reports. Happ is the main piece Toronto would want in return for Roy Halladay trade and why not. Happ is 26-year old lefthander, has posted 5-0 record since going into the rotation in late May and over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 37 innings. Philadelphia is -135 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of U9. The Phils come into Friday’s tilt 42-20 having won four of their last five games.

St. Louis will attempt to build on Thursday’s victory and might start their newest member, Julio Lugo at shortstop. Lugo was acquired from Boston for outfielder Chris Duncan and is thought as offensive sparkplug to ignite Cards offense which is eighth in the NL in runs scored. Joel Pineiro (8-9, 3.09) has mediocre record, yet has pitched well as ERA indicates. Though not a strikeout pitcher, Pineiro has kept the ball down and has not been taken out of the yard like in the past. Nevertheless, he and Cardinals are 7-17 after a win.

Game 1 Edge: Philadelphia

Game 2 will be Fox late afternoon affair. Philadelphia started this series 38-20 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half the last two years and will entrust Rodrigo Lopez (2-0, 2.60) with another start. Lopez’s spot in the rotation is also in jeopardy with Pedro Martinez not far away from coming off the DL. The 33-year old Lopez has at least shown he should be part of the Phillies pitching staff and could spot start or be used in long relief for a team that has won 12 of last 14 home games.

Manager Tony LaRussa will turn to Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.21) to cool down Philly. Lohse was roughed up on July 12th after coming off the DL by the Cubs, however turned in a more typical performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs against Houston his last time out. The situation definitely favors Charley Manuel’s squad since Lohse and the Cards are 1-10 when he starts on the road.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The series finale has the Cardinals turning to Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68), which has not been a suitable option for awhile for a team in a pennant race. Wellemeyer has ERA over 6.5 in his last eight starts. He’s been hit hard, with right-hand batters hitting .301 and lefties crushing him with .340 average. Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24) of Philadelphia has been just the opposite. After a slow beginning to the season, Blanton is 4-1 with 2.43 ERA since May 21, which covers 10 starts. Blanton has no magical reason why he’s pitched so well. “It's a little more quality pitches, maybe," Blanton said. "Maybe my changeup has come around lately. My sinker is down instead of flat and over the plate, and that always helps. Other than that, I'm just trying to pitch." This Sunday contest is afternoon game and the Phillies came in 18-10 in day ball, compared to the Redbirds 20-17 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

Since I’ve done so poorly picking these series, brought in a guest expert and they’ve been 2-0 this season. Red Wydley has this to say about who wins this series of division leaders. “Philadelphia wins handily, with a sweep possible. The Phillies are scoring 6.4 runs in last 17 games; the Cards have tallied more than five runs twice in last 10. Philadelphia is playing before packed houses every night and has caught fire at home winning 12 of 14. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan should go into Hall of Fame the way he figures out how to maximize pitchers, but I’ll still take the Phillies relievers late in games. The ONLY way St. Louis wins this series is if Albert (Pujols) the Great hits .500 with four dingers. Philly, no problem.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +140, Philadelphia -180

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 4-9

Baseball Series Betting- Kansas City at Minnesota

With the exception of Cleveland, the American League Central standings are tighter than a pair of Mariah Carey jeans. Two of the teams in the division will be going toe-to-toe for three games when first place Kansas City tries to hold on to slim lead over .500 Minnesota. The Royals roll into the Twins Cities taking three of four against Toronto and are feeling pretty good to start May with 12-10 record, since they have been without their closer Joakim Soria. The right-handed fire-baller has not pitched since April 22 at Cleveland because of stiffness in the back of his right shoulder. Manager Trey Hillman said, “I’d say we'll have him back for the Minnesota series, that’s what I’m hopeful of." Kansas City has a few missing pieces due to injury, however they have survived on pitching, allowing the fewest runs in the American League at 3.7 per game.

Minnesota doesn’t feel too bad to be in their position, without one its big bats in the lineup. Catcher and reigning AL batting champion Joe Mauer is scheduled to make his 2009 debut. Mauer started the season on the disabled list and is key component to the Twins offense. Minnesota is 23rd in runs scored at 4.2 per game and manager Ron Gardenhire understands Mauer’s value. “When he’s not in the lineup and not in the field handling the running game and everything, you miss those things,” Gardenhire said. “He’s an All-Star, and, you know, probably the best hitter in the league. So, yeah, you miss that a lot.”

In the first game, Bookmaker.com has Minnesota with a decided edge, making them -170 money line favorites with a total of Ov9. The reason is Kevin Slowey (3-0, 4.44 ERA) of the Twins is facing Sidney Ponson (0-3, 5.79 ERA). Slowey started slowly, but has only given up three runs in last two starts over 15 innings. The righthander does not throw heat, nonetheless has excellent arm motion, making his pitches difficult to detect. The Twins off a day of rest are 16-4 in next outing.

Ponson was brought into Kansas City to hopefully be fifth starter and innings-eater. He’s only had one real bad game among his four starts and pitched six innings or more in three of his outings. Though seldom associated with winning, Ponson and former teams are 32-18 in May during his career. Against the Twins, Ponson is 11-3, his most wins against any club, with a 2.69 ERA. But he's just 5-7 at the Metrodome, including a 1-4 mark the one year he pitched for the Twins.

Slowey is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) vs. Kansas City and Minnesota is 26-11 at home when playing against a team with a winning record.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The second game has a compelling pitching matchup. The Royals Brian Bannister had a horrible 2008 (9-16) campaign and spring training proved to be more of the same and was sent to Triple-A Omaha. Since being recalled, Bannister has been lights out with 2-0 record with miniscule 0.69 ERA. Bannister’s stuff is a little above average, but as he proved in 2007, he’s capable of having winning record. He will be opposed by Glen Perkins (1-2, 2.48). The Twins lefty lacks overpowering pitches, but to date has solved the long ball conundrum, allowing no home runs in four starts after surrendering 25 a season ago. Perkins has pitched eight innings (all at home) three times already this season keeping hitters off-balance. Kansas City is 12-4 in Game 2’s, but have lost last five Saturday starts by Bannister. The Twinkies have won last four of Perkins starts against winning teams and are 9-1 if he pitches the middle game of the series.

Game 2 Edge: Minnesota

Coming into the series, the Royals were 8-1 against teams with winning home records and they are keeping fingers crossed Gil Meche (1-2, 3.77) can make scheduled start. The K.C. ace lasted just 3 2/3 against Toronto, suffering from lower back stiffness, which caused his pitches to be up and was riddled for five runs on seven hits. Meche has said his back has been bothering him since March and it was significantly worse in last outing. Scott Baker (0-2, 9.82) has had a miserable start to the season, giving up seven home runs over 8 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the year. Against Tampa Bay, he kept the ball in the yard and struck out season high of seven, but still suffered the loss. Watch for how K.C. does in Saturday’s contest, with Minny 10-21 if opponent scored five or more runs in previous game.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Contacted Hurricane Bill of Playbook.com to get his feelings on the series. “This should be a low scoring-series with both teams averaging just around 4 runs per game. Nice advantage for the Twins not having to face Greinke (pitched Wednesday) and possibly not having to face Meche (Sunday start is in question due to sore back). Also, All-Star closer Joakim Soria (sore right shouder) still may not be 100% (one appearance since 4/13) and that could come into play in a low-scoring series. Huge pitching mismatch for the hosts in Game 1 of this three-game set as the underrated Kevin Slowey hooks up with the pathetic Sidney Ponson.”

Would have to agree with Hurricane Bill, and see Twins taking opener and like the fact Perkins pitches so well in the Metrodome. Take Minnesota in series wager for upcoming weekend.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Kansas City +140, Minnesota -180

3DW Pick: Minnesota

2009 Record – 1-2

Baseball Series Betting- San Diego at Philadelphia

Baseball in April is a lot like a horse race going to the first turn. The favorites don’t normally charge out of the gate and long-shots will frequently have the lead as the ponies disappear around the first curve. This happens in baseball almost every year and no better way to make this point is to see the San Diego Padres tied for first place in the National League West. Everyone expected and still expects San Diego to be one of the weaker teams in the senior circuit; however as major league baseball heads into its second weekend, the Pads are part of the biggest stories to start the season.

Owner John Moores is in the middle of a nasty divorce and due to California community property laws, Moores will have to sell all or parts of the franchise. This leads to taking a bare-bones approach to running the franchise, as was witnessed last year when San Diego won 63 games. This makes the Padres a collection of retreads and young players who may or may not be major league material. That’s not to say San Diego has no talent, with All-Star Adrian Gonzalez at first base, hard-working David Eckstein at second and Brian Giles in right. Names less known are Jody Gerut in center, who is hitting almost .290, Chase Headley is over the .300 barrier with on-base percentage of .360 and catcher Nick Hundley has better numbers than Headley.

A bigger reason why San Diego has started so well is pitching. They are seventh in runs allowed at 3.8 per game, with teams hitting just .235 against them. A remade bullpen without Trevor Huffman has an ERA of 2.40 and is five for five in save chances. Though Jake Peavy is still likely to be traded (sources now have Philadelphia as strong contender), tonight’s starter Chris Young (2-0, 1.38) has acted like an ace, striking out 12 in 13 innings and allowing only two walks. Though the money line has fallen considerably; Young and the Pads are 6-0 as +150 or more underdogs.

Philadelphia has had to deal with many distractions, the unfortunate passing of legendary announcer Harry Kalas and the wonderment of what is up with tonight’s starter Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18 ERA). Hamels insists his elbow and arm are fine, despite the loss of seven-mph on fastball in first start in Colorado. Hamels incurred a heavy workload in winning World Series and many believe it has taken its toll. Don’t count Hamels among those that believe and pitching coach Rich Dubee insists he’s just behind from not being able to throw enough in the spring. Oddsmakers still favor the Phillies at -168 and the left-hander and Philly are 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

This is will be a four-game series, which concludes on Monday, but as always the case in this situation; the first three games are how series wagers are determined. Last season the Phillies bullpen was as important a reason as any as to why they became baseball’s best. This group has not started as well in 2009, with a 4.97 ERA. What has been the bugaboo is surrendering seven home runs in 29 innings. The slimmed down Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) was more effective in second start giving up only four hits over seven innings. Myers control has been improved, a little too good as it turns out. He’s struck out 12 with only two free passes, but six of the dozen hits he’s allowed have gone over the wall. Myers and the Phils are 23-6 against the NL West. San Diego counters with Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60), who pitched fairly well in his Padres debut. Don’t expect great things from the right-hander as a starter, having not pitched more than 103 innings in five years. Watch the for line on game two, with Philadelphia coming into the series 22-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and 7-1 on Saturday’s.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

If the probable starting pitchers are correct, Game 3 might have a few runs scored. San Diego will start Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52), who hadn’t pitched as professional in the U.S. until he faced the Mets last Monday. Silva pitched well for four innings until tiring in the fifth and blew 5-1 lead. He has a good assortment of pitches, which is how he made the big club. Silva has to be right, since the Friars are 5-19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game coming in the City of Brotherly Love. Chan Ho Park (0-0, 10.38) doesn’t have a long leash one would imagine and has to do better than allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. At 35, Park should be a middle reliever, pitching for the Dodgers. In his career he has 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium and over 5.20 ERA everywhere else.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

The series finale has Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09) taking on Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55).

Philadelphia comes into the series at .500 and Jimmy Rollins struggling at the dish batting .111. This is a chance for the Phillies to start making a little headway and building momentum. Though the pitching has been disheartening to start, San Diego is batting .236 as a team, which means they are beatable if you score against them. Taking this into consideration, have to play the Phils in series wager, despite the Pads hot start.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Philadelphia -300, San Diego +220

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 1-0