CBB Tournament Wagering Blog

Thursday March 11 8:24 AM

Disappointments – Colorado-Missouri-Louisville

Colorado was a very popular play yesterday morning among handicappers, having won three in a row, the last against the Red Raiders in convincing fashion and Texas Tech riding a six-game losing streak. I got emails from people asking if this was good play and my response was I don’t like betting conference tournament games after the teams had just met. This usually means both are mediocre, given they would play right away again and anything is possible. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, who worked the ball inside which led to 30 free throw attempts (23 made) and outrebounding the Buffs by 10.

A 12th seed defeated a fifth-seed for the second time in the history of the Big 12 tournament as Nebraska knocked off defending tournament champion Missouri. The Tigers were clearly not ready to play after being thumped by Kansas Saturday by 21 and carried the emotional baggage like luggage to Kansas City. The Cornhuskers, a 10.5-point underdog, followed many of the same principles the Jayhawks provided on tape. The Missouri press is beatable on the backside if you go to the rim once you cross midcourt and shot 58.8 percent in winning by 15.

It was typical of Louisville all year and they got what they deserved in upset by Cincinnati. The Bearcats play physical and coach Rick Pitino knew what it would take to down Cincinnati. "The point of emphasis tonight was to rebound the basketball," Pitino said. "We rebound, we win. We knew that. We didn't, we lost. We go home early. Wasted a lot of boosters' money." The Cardinals were dominated on the glass 46-29 and those holding Cards -6 tickets also felt cheated.

Surprises – Notre Dame – Montana

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey deserves all the credit in the world for his team’s remarkable turnaround. Luke Harangody went down in loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 11 and reports later surfaced his college career might be finished. Coach Brey convinced his squad this was now their team and Tory Jackson and Tim Abromaitis in particular took over as leaders and the rest of the players followed their lead in winning last four games, including taking down a pair of ranked clubs.

Harangody’s knee heeled faster than what many believed and he’s returned, coming off the bench. Coach Brey stayed true to the players that realistically have given Notre Dame the chance to be in NCAA Tournament and kept them as starters. The Irish started slowly in trailing 11-2 to Seton Hall and Brey subbed in Harangody and his energy and moves around the basket helped Notre Dame build 28-21 halftime lead. Brey went back to usual starters and they built a 14-point lead and Brey was wise (in my opinion) to let the starting five work thru brief Pirates run that cut the lead to nine and only brought in the former Big East player of the year after Notre Dame has reestablished control.

If you had Weber State -3.5 on their home floor, leading 40-20 at the half, you could be excused from turning away from ESPN2 and the Big Sky championship to check out another game. One problem occurred with that logic, Anthony Johnson of Montana. Johnson exploded for career high 42 points, an amazing 34 in the second half, proving why they call it March Madness, as the Grizzlies stormed all the way back to steal 66-65 win and NCAA bid. What a performance!

Wednesday March 10 7:00AM

You had to be impressed with how Butler just overwhelmed Wright State 70-45 as seven-point home favorites. That win was the Bulldogs 20th in a row, the longest streak in the country, having last lost at UAB on Dec. 22, 67-57. Butler should be a fifth seed (a sixth at worst) and is a definite threat to win a game or two in the tournament, as long as they stay away from super athletic teams.

It’s not my job when to tell coach Jim Calhoun when to retire, but given the non-performance his team put up against St. John’s in being routed 73-51 as 4.5-point favorites, something has to change. Calhoun continues to be plagued by health issues and Connecticut finished the season 6-12 and 7-11 ATS, which made the talk of them even being considered for NCAA Tournament foolish. Maybe progression will just solve the Huskies problems, as seniors Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Gavin Edwards provided nothing in terms of leadership for their team and their careers are almost completed.

North Texas won the Sun Belt title and automatic bid, by squeaking by Troy 66-63. The Mean Green has four 20-win seasons and can really motor up and down the floor. They could present a challenge to wrong NCAA tourney opponent, as they are 12-6 (10-5-1 ATS) away from Denton and 7-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The biggest concern is 43.1 field goal percentage defense and sometimes how easily opponents get inside on them for easy buckets.

Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Time to get serious about wagering college basketball

What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 13

Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS

Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.

Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.

Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network

The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.

Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.

Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast

A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.

No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.

George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC

These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.

Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.

Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark

Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2

Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.

Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.

Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E

In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.

Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.

Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.

Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN

You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.

All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.

The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 14

Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS

This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.

Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.

The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.

Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN

Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.

Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.

Louisville and Texas making bettors nervous

Rick Pitino knew the 2009-10 Cardinals were not at the same level as last year’s squad and expected growing pains. Rick Barnes of Texas knew he had a deep and talented club, which rose all the way to No.1 this season. As both Louisville and Texas have come up on the wrong side of the ledger in recent games, college basketball bettors are left to ponder what each of these teams might do on Big Monday.

Hey, a little helper over here

The Cardinals (13-8, 6-10 ATS) have lost four of last five in Big East play and Louisville backers are seeing red with their team 1-5 ATS in last six. The Cardinals 77-74 loss at West Virginia might have been microcosm of the entire season. The ‘Ville trailed the Mountaineers 13-0 to start the game and were outscored 18-4 to end it. The other 32+ minutes they dominated the contest 71-46. When the game was in the balance; the Cards could not make a bucket and didn’t stop the opposition, a familiar theme this season. Louisville is 3-11 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in eight days over the last three seasons.

About the only positive news for the home team is tonight’s foe is in the same predicament. Connecticut (13-8, 7-11-1 ATS) have fallen in five of their last seven outings, including the last two to Providence and Marquette. The Huskies have too often played like dogs to start games and they trailed by double digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying, only to lose 70-68 at home as five point favorites. UConn wiped the glass clean against smallish Marquette, outrebounding them by 19, yet forced but three turnovers. “I’m ready to play another game,” forwards Gavin Edwards said. “I want to get this taste out of my mouth as quick as possible.” Connecticut is 12-4 ATS in road games after playing consecutive contests as a favorite.

Louisville is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 145.5 and is 12-3 ATS in February games over the last two seasons, normally the time a Pitino coached club starts to jell. UConn will be playing their fifth game without coach Jim Calhoun (2-2 SU & ATS) and they are 6-0 OVER on the road after outrebounding opponent by 15 or more, winning by 7.7 points per game.

This is the early 7:00 Eastern start on ESPN and Louisville is 10-3 OVER as a favorite this season.

Longhorns coming up short

Texas hits the Big 12 road for the first time since losing at Kansas State and is off immensely disappointing home loss to Baylor 80-77 in overtime, as nine-point chalk. Texas (18-3, 8-9 ATS) has not been playing with the same urgency they were earlier in the season and has dropped three of last four. Opposing teams have bothered the Texas guards who have been dribbling too much and not getting offense into motion by passing the ball. Some Longhorns backers wonder if the team would be better served have a more set rotation of players having specific roles. They are just 5-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons, which includes current 0-6 spread mark in 2010.

After facing the frenetic pace at Missouri two days ago, another team that can get up and down the floor is next for Oklahoma State (16-5, 9-5-1 ATS). As usual it was physically and mentally draining contest in Columbia, losing 95-80, committing 24 turnovers and the Cowboys starters will be tested, since points off the bench are like the scenery from Stillwater to Austin, not much. Outside of James Anderson, perimeter shooting for Okie State is thinner than Kate Moss. The Cowboys have to shoot well since they are 8-46 ATS when they make 34 to 39 percent of their shots.

Texas is a 2.5-point fave in Stillwater and is putrid 6-17 ATS after a Big 12 game over the last two seasons. It will be a raucous setting for Okie State who is 17-7 ATS in all home games since 2008. Gallagher-Iba Arena hasn’t been hospitable for Texas, who is only 2-5 SU and ATS in previous seven visits.

College Hoops Dominates Landscape

For a lot of casual bettors and fans, this is really the kickoff of the college basketball season. Forget the fact that more than half the season has already been played, with no football this weekend (unless you consider the Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl football) a vast number of people start turning their attention towards college hoops and beginning mentally prepping for March Madness which is not that many weeks away. Here is a look at some of the top matches this weekend on the collegiate hardwood. Sides and total from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 3o

Louisville at West Virginia (-7, 137.5) 12:00E ESPN

Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS), playing in the Big East is going to face more than their fair share of challenging opponents and as per usual went out of conference to face a number of tough hombres. Come tournament time that helps your resume, however it really helps the confidence of the team to beat a Top 25 club, not just play with them. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS against ranked teams and will have another shot to improve against West Virginia. The Cards are 18-7 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.

Since its fast start, West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS) has been erratic in its play since 2010 began with 5-3 and 3-5 ATS record. Continual 40 minute effort has been lacking, with the Mountaineers playing like characters in a Rob Zombie movie, with no visible signs of emotion. What has curtailed West Virginia’s excellence is their star players have not been playing like stars. Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks have been off their game somewhat and it has had a trickle affect on the team. They will look to find earlier rhythm and are 38-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three point shots a game.

Louisville has failed to cover their last five contests; however is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against West Virginia the last dozen years.

Duke at Georgetown (+2, 141.5) 1:00E CBS

As opposed to previous few seasons, this Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) team could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament instead of being bounced early on. This matchup with Georgetown will be a good barometer where the Blue Devils are at present and what improvements they should work on. Credit Kyle Singler for finding ways to work thru shooting slump. Instead of just firing away, he brought his game closer to the basket, taking more 10-15 foot shots and worked the offensive glass, building confidence until he was back in groove for team that is 11-21 ATS against the Big East.

The same measuring stick can all be used by Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS), who was scorched by Syracuse 73-56 after starting the contest with 14-0 lead. The Hoyas Greg Monroe has become the focal point of the team, delivering all over the floor and his desire to run on the break not only shows hustle, but a willingness to be team player, hungry to win. In reviewing Georgetown’s season, one fact sticks out like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeries, if Chris Wright doesn’t play well, the Hoyas will labor to be victorious. G-Town is a raunchy 11-22 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.

Duke comes in 10-4 ATS off a win like they enjoyed over Florida State, while Georgetown is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference tilts. With both teams ranked, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in five previous meetings.

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-7.5, 145.5) 2:00E ESPN

The top three teams in the Big 12 have been established, but who is one rung down? We’ll start to find out with this encounter. Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) is a smallish team, too dependent on outside shooting, which explains them ranking ninth in the conference in buckets made. When the offense breaks down, all eyes turn to guard James Anderson to bail them out. Though Anderson his very good player, he can’t be counted on to make shots from bad spots on the floor with the shot clock winding down. The Cowboys are going to have to step up after losing two of last three as visitors and are 26-43 ATS as a road underdog or pick.

Missouri’s unique brand of basketball is a little like the triple option in football, you can simulate it in practice, but that doesn’t mean you are ready for it in games. The Tigers (15-5, 8-6 ATS) defensive pressure forces over 20 turnovers a game, however what coach Mike Anderson’s club doesn’t get credit for is defending the perimeter, allowing the lowest three-point percentage of buckets made in the Big 12. Missouri’s front line looks to matchup and secure a draw, being inexperienced and having the guards to score points. The Tigers are 21-12 ATS as a favorite since last year.

Okie State has a three game win streak in the works and is 17-5-1 ATS off a SU victory. Missouri is perfect 12-0 at home this season (5-2 ATS) and is 21-6 against the spread in last 27 contests in Columbia. The straight up winner is 8-1-1 ATS since 2002.

Washington State at Washington (-8.5, 156) 3:30E FSN

Alright, the Pac-10 has a foul odor about it and even the Patriot League looks more interesting this season. Nonetheless, somebody has to win this conference and these two teams believe they can answer the bell to be that team. Washington State (14-6, 6-11 ATS) is your classic ADHD team, seldom focusing for long periods of time without drifting into other thoughts. Coach Ken Bone is looking a more even keel approach and threatened to start sitting players if they are not ready to play, even star Klay Thompson. The Cougars are 10-19 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game.

Coach Lorenzo Romar had seen enough. After three indifferent Pac-10 performances that ended up being losses, coach Romar inserted forward Justin Holiday into the starting lineup and he set the table with his defensive energy for others to follow. Senior Quincy Pondexter was pleased with the shakeup, since as a senior; he wants to win the Pac-10 title. Unfortunately, Washington (13-7) went to Los Angeles last weekend and was swept by the L.A. universities leaving them three games behind California in the Pac-10 chase. The Huskies want to hurry the pace and are 35-18 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points.

Washington is one of the worst bets in college basketball at 5-14 ATS. The Huskies have taken nine of last 12 at Bank of America Arena in the Apple Cup rivalry, but have played like dogs with just four covers.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-8.5, 154) 4:00E ESPN

Two weeks ago this SEC showdown would have been footnote in most newspapers across the country. That has abruptly changed with what has happen the last 14 days. Vanderbilt (16-3, 10-6 ATS) is the last unbeaten team in the conference with their impressive 85-76 win at Tennessee as six-point underdogs. That gave the Commodores 10 straight wins (7-2 ATS) and they are bubbling to the top as one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49.8 percent. Vandy shooters have been dandy, making less than half their attempts just twice in this streak. This underappreciated squad is 13-2 and 10-4 ATS off a SU triumph.

Top-ranked Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS) was the last unbeaten to fall, being demonized by South Carolina guard Devan Downey, who literally threw in 30 points against the Wildcats. Coach John Calipari was mildly disappointed, more frustrated his team was outworked. However like any good coach, he’s not going to dwell on one defeat. “It’s a great lesson,” Calipari said. “A lot of times, until you take an ‘L’ they don’t want to believe you. Especially with how young we are.” Kentucky may be a young team, however the most shocking aspect from the loss was the no-show performance from junior Patrick Patterson, who totaled five points (0 in last 20 minutes) and lacked any sort of assertiveness they may have made the difference, especially from an upperclassman. The Cats are 8-0 and 5-1 ATS off a non-cover.

Kentucky will face a far more balanced team in Vanderbilt than they witnessed at South Carolina. Playing before Ashley Judd and the rest of the zealous Kentucky fans will be a big plus, along with being 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS against Vandy since 1998 in Lexington.

Kansas at Kansas State (+4, 155) 7:00E ESPN

Though Kansas (19-1,9-7-1 ATS) probably is the most talented team in the country, it hasn’t shown the killer instinct that of the club that won the national championship two years ago. The Jayhawks will go on auto-pilot emotionally and as coach Bill Self acknowledged, this group doesn’t like to embarrass opponents and flex their intimidation muscles like their predecessors. Kansas is 10-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season, but if they don’t bring a bucket of raw emotion like did in mauling Missouri this past Monday, they could stumble again.

Kansas State’s got game, a lot of game. The Wildcats (17-3, 11-4 ATS) not only have a sound backcourt, their frontline has proven to be vastly underrated. Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels have found ways to score in the paint and Luis Colon can be a defensive presence when not committing senseless fouls. Though Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente make a terrific backcourt combination, Rodney McGruder has a spark plug off the bench as third guard and will eat up more minutes if either of the other two is having off night. K-State is 9-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or points game this campaign.

This series is not a pantisocracy, with Kansas 11-1 SU and ATS at Bramlage Coliseum since 1997.

Sunday, Jan. 31

Florida at Tennessee (-7.5, 141 ) 1:00E CBS

Coach Billy Donovan has a conundrum. “I have a hard time figuring these guys out sometimes,” Donovan said. This is the main reason why Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) stumbled out of the SEC gate and is trying to play catch up in the formidable East Division. Among the problems is forward Dan Werner’s prolonged shooting slump. Though guard Erving Walker has been drilling shots beyond the arc, other than Alex Tyus, game to game the scoring has been spotty. The better teams continue to beat the Gators off dribble penetration and they do a poor job on rotation giving up too many easy buckets. They have strung together four SEC wins playing three of those games in Gainesville, but must be sound defensively since Florida is 0-7 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

This might be Bruce Pearl’s best coaching job. Losing four players to suspension (two returned) and having to end the career of his best player Tyler Smith for transgressions, Pearl helped unite his squad and they accepted responsibility. Often the merry prince, senior center Wayne Chism immediately thrust himself into leadership role and his on-court play jumped markedly. Presumed freshman sensation Kenny Hall was buried on the Tennessee bench, however after the upheaval; he’s become instant energy off the bench for the Vols. Veterans J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Bobby Maze have all become better players particularly on defense.

The Vols (15-4, 8-8 ATS) are 11-3 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots, but have failed to connect on more than 44 percent in last four games, losing the last two outright as favorites. Has the emotion worn off for Tennessee and now they are starting to feel the pain of not having Smith? Everyone finds out since the Volunteers are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS vs. Florida the last 12 seasons.

Maryland at Clemson (-4.5, 145 ) 5:30E FSN

The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained level of more consistent play. Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with and everyone will have to play well against Clemson’s full court press. They Terps are 16-6 ATS in road games since 2007.

Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them and fallen behind and made furious comebacks, coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the pendulum not swing as dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.

Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with 4-6-1 ATS mark.

Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

Big Monday is Back

With football relegated to weekends the rest of the season, college basketball is back on the front burner. That means a dose of Big East and Big 12 hoops for the next couple of months and wagering opportunities from two of the best conferences in the collegiate game. We start this Monday with a “Whiteout” in Louisville and “Bedlam” bash in Norman. Get Ready!

Cardinal red is white

Louisville (12-4, 5-6 ATS) spent the early part of the season learning to play without its two best players from a year ago and coach Rick Pitino has added responsibility with their hard work and maturity. He’s brought back different full-court defenses, that have man-to-man principles in the half court and the players love it. Guards Preston Knowles and Edgar Sosa are embracing the challenge and Samardo Samuels has become more dominant. The Cardinals are on 18-6 ATS run in Big East action the last two years.

The last couple of years, Louisville has added a special night when everyone in the arena wears white t-shirts, for the whiteout-effect and coach Rick Pitino has joined in the festivities wearing a pure white suit with a red tie, which led to coining the phrase “respect the suit”. The Cardinals have won seven of eight, including a non-cover over St. John’s 75-68 Saturday. Louisville is 23-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.

After squeaking by Marquette twice in eight days by a total of four points, once beaten Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS) lands in Kentucky. The Wildcats have a number of ways to attack teams with its marvelous guard contingent and should not be vastly affected by the different types of presses Louisville likes to use. Few guards in the country have been through the wars like Scottie Reynolds and his team is 13-3 ATS vs. good offensive clubs averaging 77 or more points per game. Coach Jay Wright’s concern is defensive intensity, where he has seen unnecessary lapses.

When asked about having his team readiness to play after nipping Marquette 78-76 Saturday, Wright said. “We’ll be fired up to play”.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cardinals as three-point favorites, with total of 155. Villanova is averaging 84.3 points per game and Louisville is 5-15 ATS versus offensive teams -scoring 84 or more points game. The Wildcats have to contend with the Cards various defenses and are 6-16 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

These teams have split six engagements the last 12 years with the ‘Ville 5-1 ATS.

Bedlam to reign

Oklahoma (9-6, 4-8 ATS) figured to have problems with the departure of All-American Blake Griffin, but not to this extreme. The Sooners have lost five games by double digits and the last three have been a nightmare, being destroyed by 15, 24 and 31 respectively. Oklahoma brought in a number of new recruits that were supposed to blend with talented returnees like guard Willie Warren, but as coach Jeff Capel said about his underperforming squad, “Talent is overrated,”.

The Sooners are 0-6 ATS off a spread loss and defensive effort has been the biggest culprit. In their last three blowouts, they have allowed opposing teams to shoot 55.8 percent. Maybe a battle with in-state rival will stir their hearts.

Oklahoma State (13-2, 6-2-1 ATS) started Big 12 play with bang, burying then No.22 Texas Tech 81-52 two nights ago. James Anderson led the way with 28 points and they have done a superb job protecting the ball with just over 11 turnovers a game, which is on pace to break a school record. The Cowboys are averaging 75.1 points per game this season and are 10-1 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State opened as a one-point favorite, with total of 146. The Cowboys have covered 10 of last 11 league games and are 13-5 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins. Oklahoma has taken nine of last 12 meetings at home, with 5-7 ATS mark and is 12-3 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

The Sooners are dismal 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 Big Monday’s.

Big East play starts for Pittsburgh and Louisville

It’s a short week for both teams as they open the Big East campaign for 2009. The strain is a little greater for Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-1 ATS), having to play consecutive road games, after visiting N.C. State last week and blowing 31-17 lead, conceding three unanswered touchdowns in 38-31 defeat. The Panthers are one of the favorites to win the conference and they have shown why, sort of. They had one of better run defenses in the country anchored by Greg Romeus, until they crumbled against the Wolfpack in allowing 208 yards. They had no answer for N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like Louisville as anyone under center that resembles him.

Offensively, Pittsburgh does something better each week and quarterback Bill Stull is arriving as a passer, which really keeps this run-oriented team balanced. First year starter Dion Lewis has helped Pitt ring up 5.1 yards per carry. The Panthers are afflicted 8-21 ATS in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in last game.

It’s another slow start for Louisville (1-1 ATS) after losing at Utah 30-14, giving them a 1-2 record. The Cardinals are predicted to finish at or near the bottom in the Big East race, but could change points of view with a home win over Pittsburgh.

As opposed to last year’s downcast 0-5 finish, Louisville has signs they might be better than anticipated. Quarterback Justin Burke has looked poised on the road and put up decent numbers and wide receiver Trent Guy is playmaker. Victor Anderson is dependable running back, though his lack of size has hurt the Cards on third and short situations. The defense has played in spurts, but hasn’t made big stops. In the last two games, Cardinals have flown the coup in yielding 191 yards per game on the ground. Under embattled coach Steve Kragthorpe, the ‘Ville is 4-10 SU and ATS in league play.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 6.5-point favorites with a steady total of 53.5. The Panthers have to take advantage of so-so Louisville offensive line and collapse the pocket to prevent secondary from being exposed. Pitt has covered their last four after relinquishing 280 or more yards. On offense, keep pounding away at the Cardinals defense with the run and see how they hold up.

The Cardinals are 4-8 against the spread when not playing on Saturday’s and will need supreme effort and no mistakes to pull off the upset. Burke must be intelligent decision-maker and not throw bad passes. If Burke can receive pass protection, Buffalo and N.C. State have combined for 755 passing yards against Cats secondary. For Louisville defense, add to Pittsburgh’s FBS total of most sacks allowed. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS after scoring 20 or fewer points.

Last season, Pittsburgh leveled Louisville 41-7 as six-point favorites, ending seven game losing streak to them. They are 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings. ESPN2 has the coverage at 8 Eastern and the visitor is 6-2 ATS.

Michigan State almost Home in Midwest Regional

I’m not sure Tom Izzo would want it any other way, as his Spartans are an underdog against the number one team in college basketball. Michigan State has won two terrific basketball games against USC and Kansas, in which they were able to make plays at the end of each game and the opposing team was not. This Elite Eight game has a secondary meaning to coach Izzo and seniors Goran Suton and Travis Walton, since with a victory it, would continue the tradition of every senior class making at least one visit to Final Four under Izzo.

Michigan State (29-6, 18-13-1 ATS) would also having something waiting for them once they made it to Detroit, a throng of Spartans fans at Ford Field, making it a virtual home game for the team from East Lansing.

In order for Michigan State to upset Louisville, they will have to do a better job handling the ball than they did in the first 20 minutes against Kansas where they has 10 turnovers. In the second half, they regained control and committed just three miscues. The Spartans can’t play at frenetic pace and have to control the tempo. That means attacking press when openings appear, while being choosy enough to run offense when necessary.

Michigan State raised their record to 13-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons and will need Suton and the guards to do what they did in last 20 minutes to limit Louisville. The backcourt attacked the Kansas guards and didn’t allow them to make entry passes into the post. After surrendering 20 points to the Jayhawks in the paint in the first half, they choked them off to just one basket in the final stanza, with Suton offering other support.

This type of defense could affect the Cards long-range shooting also, with the Spartans 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game on the season.
Michigan State would have to believe Louisville (31-5, 22-14 ATS) couldn’t possibly play any better than they did against Arizona. Watching the energy and the confidence the Cardinals exuded from the tap, you didn’t need the sound on to see what Arizona was in for. What’s scary about Louisville is how they are playing.

Rick Pitino’s team is the hottest in the country with 13 consecutive wins (9-4 ATS), playing devastating defense. What makes them almost impossible to defeat is when they shoot the ball proficiently. During this winning streak, they have made 48 percent or more of attempts 10 times, including last four games. They have more quality depth coming off the bench than the Chinese Red Army and even Earl Clark seems to understand the moment. "We came out with more intensity, and that's what you've got to do when you're up big because it's hard to play with a lead," Clark said.

Louisville is 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game after 15 or more contests and has been established as a seven-point favorite with a total of 138.5 at Betjamaica.com. The Cardinals have to stay aggressive on offense and defense. They are 22-12 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game and perfect 9-0 ATS when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game.

The Spartans are 12-4 ATS versus excellent teams who shoot better than 45 percent with a defense holding opponents to less than 42 percent shots made. Like always, Michigan State must control the glass and Louisville is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding opponents by seven or more per game.

Something will have to give since Sparty is 8-0 SU as a No.2 seed and the ‘Ville is 17-1 SU as a one or two seed. Next stop, the Motor City.

Friday Betting Action

In a rare odd day, we were 1-0, but it beats the alternative. I have more Left Coast Connection consensus plays about tonight’s tournament, with interesting results. Kansas makes the Top Trend with perfect 11-0 record and today’s Best System is 82.1 percent looking at a NBA totals action. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City in this case) after two or more consecutive Unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 points per game). This totals system is a sleek 32-7, 82.1 percent and a perfect 4-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas is 11-0 ATS versus good defensive teams shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selections -3) After a 2-2 Thursday, this is how the LCC sees the other half of the Sweet 16. Louisville 6-5 (bets placed), Gonzaga 9-4, Syracuse 16-5, Michigan State 14-4.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Favorites on Collision Course in Midwest?

In downtown Indianapolis, most people there and around the country are expecting a battle of the top two seeds Sunday afternoon. Both Louisville and Michigan State were challenged in the second round and each passed at crunch time to advance. In order for them to hook-up, the Cardinals and Spartans must navigate a treacherous foe that could destroy what many people was an inevitable matchup.

(1) Louisville vs (12) Arizona

Despite being the overall number one seed and holder of a dozen straight wins, coach Rick Pitino saw disturbing trends very similar to what plagued his squad in December. Louisville mastered Morehead State 74-54 as 21.5-point favorites, however led by just two at the half. The Cardinals built significant leads over Siena a couple of times, yet flittered away both and they didn’t put away the Saints until the last few possessions.

Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels have been like the stock market in recent weeks, up one day and down the next. Only Terrence Williams has been consistent and he has been brilliant in leading his team. Preston Knowles and Andre McGee must do a better job shooting the ball, not settling for three-point shots like they did in the first two games. This pair has to be more aggressive in getting to the basket, which could open up teammates for better shots. Louisville (30-5, 21-14 ATS) has to be prepared to start fast and is 21-10 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

If the Cards take their time, they could be chasing Arizona (21-13, 19-14-1 ATS) all day. The Wildcats have three exceptionally talented players and this trio has started fast in both victories. Guard Nic Wise and pushed the ball at every opportunity, Chase Budinger has made long shots as expected, but has attacked the rim like LeBron James with big-time flushes that have kept his teammates fired up. Center Jordan Hill has picked his spots, scoring when called upon and having a number of nice assists.

Arizona is playing with a real hunger and being the 12th seed is just having fun. Betjamica.com has the ‘Cats on the receiving end of nine-points, with the total having risen to 139. They are 22-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game.

Should Louisville be trusted, history suggests maybe, as favorites of seven or more points are 29-1 SU with .500 spread record in the round of Sweet 16. A 12th seed has never beaten a No.1 in 15 prior meetings and is 6-9 ATS.

(2) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State

This Midwestern matchup is a revenge game for Kansas, who lost to Michigan State 75-62 as 6.5-point road underdogs on January 10. The Jayhawks (27-7, 20-8-1 ATS) have grown as the young players matured and become more reliable. The two rocks have to be guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich. The Kansas point guard can get hotter than soup left in the microwave too long and blister opposing teams. His stocky build allows him to get to the rim the same as a much taller player. Aldrich continually works on all aspects of his game and is going to make a very nice living at the next level.

Bill Self’s club has been able to stay under the radar all season, with oddsmakers never quite figuring them out. They have won and covered both games in the tournament; including demolishing Dayton 60-43 and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
With Kansas a much better team than what Michigan State (28-6, 17-13-1 ATS) saw previously, the Spartans are different also. Kalin Lucas was just hitting his stride and improved dramatically to be named Big Ten player of the year. Goran Suton was still rounding into form from injury and though he had a poor shooting game against USC, he was a huge part in the Trojans Taj Gibson being a non-factor in last contest. Raymar Morgan isn’t all the way back from mono, however more glimpses are shown each game of him coming back for a Spartans team that is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last two seasons.

This 2 vs 3 contest opened as a Pick, with bettors making Michigan State a 1.5-point favorite. Two seeds are 19-9 in these matchups, covering 16 times. Michigan State is 28-3 and 15-12-1 ATS when winning the battle on the glass, and if they neutralize Aldrich, the Spartans should be great position to triumph.

Don’t look for this to be a white elephant, with two very well coached teams.

Bettors Should Expect the Unexpected Sunday

Typically Sunday is the day where more upsets occur in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In this round, the lower seeds have managed to win about 43 percent (36-48) straight up and covered the spread a money making 53 percent of the time. This can lead to all kinds of madness and the potential for lower seeds to win outright or at the very least cover oddsmakers spreads exist. Here are the possibilities for upsets today.

(6)Arizona State vs (-3) Syracuse 12:10E

Do you think N.C. State has more respect for former coach Herb Sendek now? Arizona State is one of five teams that advanced to second round out of the Pac-10 and Sendek has turned around a dormant Sun Devils program that would frequently have less than a hundred students at games. Even more amazing, is the fact ASU made it to this matchup with Syracuse, when you realize Pac-10 player of the year James Harden has nine points on 1 for 8 shooting versus Temple. Point guard Derek Glasser filled in the scoring void with career-high 22 points and lifted Arizona State to 19-11 ATS on the year.

Syracuse is bad matchup for many teams, since they have scoring options all over the floor. Jonny Flynn has been the best point guard in the country the last 10 days and Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins are trigger-happy assassins who kill opposing teams with there shooting ability. Arinze Onuaku and Paul Harris do a nice job on the inside and the defensive intensity has picked up with Orangemen on 8-1 SU and ATS roll. Syracuse is a two-point pick and it would hardly be an upset if the Sun Devils shine and come out on top.

(11) Dayton vs (3) Kansas 2:30E

What might have been the quietest upset of the first round was Dayton controlling West Virginia from the opening minutes as 9.5-point underdogs. The Flyers had been written off since losing point guard Rob Lowery and were only 3-4 in last seven contests. However, Dayton is a quality defensive team in holding foes to 39.6 percent shooting and Chris Wright dunked the Mountaineers into the off-season with 24 points. This was Dayton’s first tournament win in 19 years and they are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

Kansas stood up against a game North Dakota State squad and keeps alive the dream of defending national championship. The Jayhawks will want to step up tempo and force Dayton to play at their pace and are 16-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season. Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite and is one of a trio of three-seeds playing today and this group is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS this round since 2006.

(13) Cleveland State vs (12) Arizona 2:40E

Almost every year is one crazy matchup nobody saw coming and this is the one. Arizona’s Big 3 played up to and beyond expectations, scoring 66 of the Wildcats 84 points. Arizona was among the last teams invited to the dance and played like they should have been invited unquestionably. The ‘Cats are 11-2 ATS playing against teams with 60-80 win percentage this season, but won’t be able to play the underdog card again in Miami.

Cleveland State played like they should have been the fourth seed in whipping Wake Forest 84-69. The Vikings have won 13 of 15 (9-5-1 ATS) and are playing with supreme confidence. Cleveland State is making first tournament appearance in 23 years and this squad is noted for defense. The Vikings are 10-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest this season and like Arizona did Friday, can play loose with nothing to lose as three-point dogs.

(8) Oklahoma State vs (1) Pittsburgh 2:50E

Pittsburgh was the least impressive of the number one seeds in the opening round and will have to step up defensive passion against a team that can shoot the orange. Oklahoma State has little size, but is big on heart, with excellent shooting range. Okie State shot 56.6 percent against Tennessee, making seven 3’s and attacked the rim like bunch of cowboys at a $9.99 all-you-can-eat steak joint after working cattle all day. These Cowboys are similar to their coach Travis Ford, who is a fiery sort and won’t back off a challenge. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and 10-1 ATS since Valentine’s Day.

Pittsburgh needed 38 minutes to finally distance themselves from East Tennessee State and looked like they deserve the tag of NCAA tournament underachiever. The sloppy Panthers will have to bring their hearts and get into the game from the start or the Cowboys could shoot Pitt right out of the tournament. Pittsburgh is a noteworthy 10-2 ATS versus teams who make eight or more three-point shots a game and are favored by eight.

(6) Marquette vs (3) Missouri 4:50E

Marquette lived to tell about Utah State’s comeback and moved to next round with 58-57 squeaker. The Golden Eagles shot ugly 36.2 percent, however converted 19 of 23 attempts from the charity stripe to preserve victory. Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews can not go a combined 6 for 26 if Marquette has visions of trip to Glendale, AZ.

Missouri is a four-point favorite in this contest of Midwestern universities and will try to make pressing defense take its toll on thin Marquette squad. The Tigers will wear out teams, even teams who protect the ball like the Golden Eagles; with 14-4 ATS record vs. clubs committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this year. Marquette can create the upset, if they shoot the ball better and Missouri goes into one of their shootings funks which has happened this season.

(10) USC vs (2) Michigan State 5:00E

This is the classic 10 vs 2 second round matchup and USC has the momentum and talent to advance. The Trojans buried Boston College, doubling them up 42-21 in the second half. Taj Gibson led the onslaught, with 24 points and 10-for-10 shooting from the field. USC has now won and covered six straight, shooting over 50 percent and playing normal Tim Floyd defense. Don’t expect the Trojans to be worn out either, since two games in three days is the norm in the Pac-10 and they are 24-11 ATS in this set up.

Michigan State is four-point favorite and is 7-1 ATS away from East Lansing versus teams shooting 45 percent or better, with defense holding opponents to 42 percent or less. Don’t sell USC short, since they are 26-12 ATS as an underdog. No. 10 seeds are 9-5 ATS in second round since 2000.

(9) Siena vs (1) Louisville 5:20E

Louisville went through the motions in the first half against Morehead State before asserting themselves in the final 20 minutes to put them away. A similar pattern of play might prove fatal for the tournament’s top-rated team. Siena’s fast paced style of play was reduced to a crawl by Ohio State. The Saints needed 50 minutes to finally overcome the Buckeyes 74-72, despite making only 33.3 percent of their shots. How they managed to hang in was controlling the glass with overwhelming 17 rebound edge (51-34). Bookmaker.com has Siena receiving 11.5-points, with total of 141 and they might need it all and more. All five starters played a minimum of 44 minutes in Friday’s contest and facing the Louisville pressure has proven to be physically and mentally fatiguing for opposing teams. Siena is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 7.0 to 12.5 points, while Louisville is 10-2 ATS after a game shooting 57 percent or higher and allowing 43 percent shooting or less.

(12) Wisconsin vs (4) Xavier 2:20E

If you prefer grind it out possession after possession basketball, you should be in luck with Xavier taking on Wisconsin. Actually the Musketeers can get up and down the court, averaging 72.5 points game, on 46.5 percent shooting. Xavier has a superb deep game, tossing in 40 percent from beyond the arc and they are 6-0 ATS against Big Ten teams.

Wisconsin can play 94-feet also; they just walk it, as opposed to running back and forth. The Badgers are capable of the upset if they continue to heave them in from long distance. They made nine three-pointers after the intermission to surprise Florida State. This is the Badgers 11th appearance in the second round and they are 15-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Wisky four points with a total of 122.5.

High Maintenance Friday Favorites

For Day Two of the first round, thought we would break the bracket down into two segments. The first portion is taking a look at the five major favorites and see how they might perform, having the burden of giving away so many points to teams that may or may not be able to use them for the purpose of those who might back them.

Louisville is the top ranked and top seeded team in tournament and has all the components to be a champion. The Cardinals press can stick to opponents like barbecue sauce on baby back ribs, creating numerous turnovers and easy baskets. Coach Rick Pitino has been preaching incessantly about playing as a team, saying the NBA can wait and the players finally listened. The Cardinals come in 8-1 ATS in road games after five or more consecutive wins and are 21-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com.

Morehead State with their opening game win over Alabama State, earned a four day stay in beautiful Dayton, Ohio. The Eagles have four starters that average double digits and are 13-5 ATS after one or more wins this season. One major conundrum for Morehead State, they committed 77 more turnover than assists coming into the tournament. Ouch. If they can keep their wits about them, the Eagles could cover, with Louisville 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 10 points or more.

Also in the Midwest region is No.2 Michigan State, who is favored by 16.5 points. The Spartans ability to make a run depends on Raymar Morgan to play at expected level and point guard Kalin Lucas to be efficient, not mercurial. Michigan State laid an egg in Big Ten tourney and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. Robert Morris has Northeast Conference player of the year Jeremy Chappell, on a team that shoots 47.6 percent. Robert Morris, the person, signed the Declaration of Independence "Financier of the Revolution", because of his role in financing the American side in the Revolutionary War. Even he might have had to back Michigan State.

Pittsburgh is the top seed in the East and collectively could do a commercial for the American Beef Council. DeJuan Blair and Tyrell Biggs are wide bodies with tremendous skills and Sam Young is a triple threat on the wing. Levance Fields is underappreciated point guard with 4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. The Panthers flamed out quickly in Big East Tournament, but should be ready and rested. They are 15-6 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. East Tennessee State loves to get up and down the floor, scoring 78.6 points per game and is fabulous 14-1 ATS in March games since 1997. Only chance for the Bucs to cover the 19.5 points is run and make shots.

On the subject of running, Missouri likes to get of the starting blocks playing 94-feet with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons leading a frenetic pace for the Tigers. Missouri is back in tournament for the first time in six seasons and will want to make a splash with its three senior starters. Misso is a 13-point favorite and has deep, productive bench, which should wear down Ivy champ Cornell. The Big Red doesn’t have great athletes; however is rare tall team from that conference, with frontline of 7’0, 6’7, and 6’6. Cornell shots the deep ball well at 41.5 percent and is 11-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less in last contest. Missouri is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.

If Syracuse would have lost in first or second game of Big East tournament, would they even have been a fourth or fifth seed? Being listed among the top nine teams in the country seems a bit of a stretch, even if they won and covered seven of last eight. Jonny Flynn has proved he is one of the most dynamic point guards in the country and the Orangemen can tickle the twine with its array of shooters. Stephen F. Austin has a point guard that 5’3, yup it’s true. Eric Bell does a fine job distributing the ball and the Lumberjacks are an excellent defensive team, ranking third in the country in field goal percentage allowed at 37.4. Syracuse is favored by a dozen and is 9-4-1 ATS as neutral site game favorite. Stephen F. Austin can cover if they keep the games in the 60’s.

Wagering on NCAA Tournament Champion

The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last 11 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

Last year I wrote about Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, having a process to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has worked in the NBA as a scout and been an assistant coach for several teams on the college level. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ and I worked his method last season for the first time and two of the three teams were Kansas and Memphis, who played for the national championship last season.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

• 8 of 8 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
• 19 of 21 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
• 20 of 21 past champions had NBA guard
• 8 of 11 past champions won conference tournament

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 23 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.

Number of consecutive wins:

23 – Memphis

19- Utah State

16 – Wake Forest, Clemson, Pittsburgh

13- North Carolina, Oklahoma, Connecticut, American

12- Marquette, Minnesota, Butler

11- Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Tenn.-Martin, Xavier, North Dakota State, Binghamton

10- Duke, Louisville, LSU, BYU, Texas A&M

Absent from this list are such notable teams like Gonzaga (two nine-game streaks), Washington and Missouri, all teams that would be in the discussion as many as the teams on this list for strong consideration as top quality clubs.

The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.

Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.

In reviewing above list, Memphis has frontcourt players Shawn Taggert and Robert Dozier, who are both tall long athletes, who will be on somebody’s NBA roster when they leave. Guards Antonio Anderson and Tyreke Evans have shown to be special players and will be paid as professionals before long.

Utah State has an exceptional player in Gary Wilkenson, who was the Western Athletic Conference play of the year; however he is 26 years old and has limited options at the next level.
Wake Forest might have as much next level talent as any team in the country, but it is awfully young. Sophomore Jeff Teague is top scoring threat and is good facilitator of the ball. Freshman Al-Farouq Amino has unreal ability and just needs more seasoning and to work on outside game. Second year player James Johnson is inside-outside threat and 7’0 junior Chas McFarland has improved each year in school and could catch on with NBA team when he graduates.

Clemson has high motor guy in Raymond Sykes, who has the size and strength for NBA, however has shooting limitations. K.C. Rivers and Trevor Booker don’t have the right amount quickness that converts to the NBA.

Pittsburgh has DuJuan Blair and Sam Young, who should both be drafted for the NBA, but no guards on the Panthers squad are ready to make a move. Though Tyler Hansbrough supposedly doesn’t meet the criteria to play in the NBA, he has the look of a high energy seventh or eighth man, who will do whatever it takes to improve. The rest of the North Carolina contingent is questionable with Wayne Ellington and Danny Green and if Ty Lawson wasn’t 5’11. he would be big time prospect.

Connecticut has a boatload of talented players. A.J. Price should stick with some team and Jeff Adrien already has NBA-body. Stanley Robinson would make a nice project for a team with patience to let him grow and Hasheem Thabeet is already on his way, once he decides to go. Oklahoma of course has Blake Griffin and guard Willie Warren, both top level talents that would make any team an instant contender.

Michigan State has Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers, who have potential as sophomores, but Raymar Morgan is more unknown as a 6’8 forward. Marquette’s Jerel McNeal has improved each season, but nothing even close in the frontcourt. BYU has guard Lee Cummard, who may lack the quickness, but is very good shooter. LSU has the right combination in principle anyways, with Marcus Thornton at guard and Tazmin Mitchell at forward. I’ll cut Mitchell a little slack since his body type is bigger than listed 6’7 height.

Louisville’s Earl Clark and Terrance Williams will very likely be better pros than they were in college, with coach Rick Pitino demanding more team effort. Duke has Gerald Henderson who should stick, however Kyle Singler doesn’t count as 6’8 player, since he is more of two guard or swingman when he is drafted.

The rest of the teams have primarily very good college players, but most are undersized or lack a particular quality that would prevent them from being able to earn a NBA paycheck.

Moving on, 72.7 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last 11 years won their conference tournament. Last year, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won their post-season tournaments. This season only nine of the 21 teams with long winning streaks won their conferences tournaments and just three from the bigger conferences, if you include Conference-USA.

A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg.

The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are only two teams that stand above the rest. They are Louisville and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament.

Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

NCAA Tourney Preview and Sweet 16 Predictions

With the field of 65 teams set, the real fun begins, who are the locks to win and advance and where will the upsets come from. In many cases, filling out a bracket is challenging enough, however trying to beat the oddsmakers over the first four days of the NCAA Tournament might be the reason Rogaine was invented, as fans see double digit leads dissipate faster than our dollars being handed out for bailouts.

Here is a look at each region and who could be in the Sweet 16.

Midwest Region

Louisville (28-5) is the top seeded of the entire tournament, winning the Big East regular season and postseason tournament. The Cardinals have won 10 games in a row and have to draw a great deal of attention. Louisville plays tremendous pressing defense, has at least three NBA potential players and is 12-3 and 9-4 ATS away from home. They will easily dispatch of first round opponent Alabama State or Morehead State, who are in the play-in game and face the winner of Ohio State and Siena. The Buckeyes (22-10) are playing much better than they were in mid-February, as Evan Turner has turned into one of the best players in the Big Ten. The Saints (26-7) by no means are simple club to beat, scoring 77.7 points per game, with four starters averaging double digits. The respect they have earned shows up in advancing four spots to No.9 seed from last year when they upset Vanderbilt and are a three-point underdog at Bookmaker.com.

Arizona (19-13) getting into the tournament is a mystery, losing five of last six and having 2-9 (5-6 ATS) true road record. Nevertheless, they have three quality players in Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill and Nic Wise, who could give Mountain West champion Utah (24-9) fits. The Utes don’t overwhelm opponents, winning by 7.2 points per game, but they know how to win and were 19-13 against the spread and should take down the Wildcats as a one point underdog. If that happens, a young a talented Wake Forest (24-6) team should be waiting. The Demon Deacons next year should really be something, but they are not too shabby this season with guard Jeff Teague as leader. If Cleveland State (25-10) can play at their tempo, they should be able to give Wake Forest quite a game, on the receiving end of eight points.

Michigan State (26-6) handily won the Big Ten regular season, but failed for the ninth straight year to make tourney final. The concern about the Spartans is what happens when Chris Allen and Durrell Summers don’t play well. Both are potential 20-point scorers any given night, unfortunately have had their share of four and five point games. Tom Izzo’s club should handle Robert Morris (24-10) as 17-point favorites, who finished 9-2 after losing at Pittsburgh by 20 points. The Boston College (21-11) and USC (21-12) matchup is almost impossible to predict with how the teams play from game to game, however the Trojans get the nod from oddsmakers as two-point favorites.

If Kansas (25-7) puts the loss of Baylor in Big 12 tournament behind them quickly, they should be fine. If they let it linger and play like coach Bill Self teams had played prior to last year, the Jayhawks could have real tussle with North Dakota State (26-6) as 10-point favorites. Five years ago coach Saul Phillips made the decision to redshirt the entire talented freshmen class, with the hopes of entering Division 1 basketball and earning NCAA bid in first year. It worked and you know they will be excited to face the defending champions.

Dayton (26-7) comes in limping to the tournament with 3-4 record, really missing point guard Chris Lowery, who is out for the season. Two other players have seen limited action reducing the effective edge the Flyers had with 12-man roster. West Virginia (23-11) seldom losses to teams it should beat and Dayton is one of them.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 Teams

Louisville – Utah – Michigan State – Kansas

West Region

Connecticut (27-4) coach Jim Calhoun could hardly be more pleased, since he has won two national championships coming out of the West Region. The top seeded Huskies have deep and talented frontcourt that can dominate and you have to like the fact they were 13-2 and 9-6 ATS away from Storrs and are a rock solid 21-point favorite. They drew Tenn-Chattanooga (18-16), who won the Southern Conference, by avoiding Davidson and playing a tired College of Charleston on there own home court. The 8 vs. 9 matchups are always intriguing and BYU against Texas A&M fits the mold. The Cougars (25-7) have outstanding players like guards Lee Cummard and Jimmer Fredette, leading a team that was 9-3 and 10-2 ATS on the road. Texas A&M (23-9) had the unimaginable loss to Texas Tech, blowing 19-point half time lead, but had won six in a row prior to that and is a two-point dog.

Purdue (25-9) finally met expectations, winning the Big Ten tourney, as Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore turned it on. Because of how the Boilermakers can play defense, they should be able to control Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa (23-10). The Panthers had a three-game losing streak in the middle of February, including a loss to Siena in Bracket Buster contest, but bounced back to win last five contests. They would love to get into a real grinder with Purdue, with the score in the low 60’s, catching eight points. Washington (25-8) was awarded the fourth seed and easily has the toughest foe among their peers. The Huskies are the most physical team in the Pac-10, but they will face a Mississippi State (23-12) who made improbable run to win SEC with four wins in four days and has won and covered the spread six straight times. The Bulldogs shoot the three-ball well and have shot-blocker extraordinaire Jarvis Varnardo, to swat away attempts in the lane. You always have to beware of teams playing that many games in that many days and Mississippi State also drew the earlier Thursday game, having to travel all the way to Portland, Or.

Coach John Calipari of Memphis (31-3) will tell the media that he could care less about what seed they are, however you can bet tomorrow’s lunch money he’s selling the lack of respect card to his players. This is a deep and veteran club with loads of NBA ability, who will shake Cal-State Northridge (17-13) and storm to Sweet 16. California (22-10) and Maryland (20-13) both do things well, nonetheless, the Bears have lost four of last six and have just one cover and seem soft by comparison trying to slow down guard Greivis Vasquez who can take over a game for the Terrapins. Cal is favored by a single point at the moment.

Missouri (28-6) will look to turn the heat up defensively on Cornell (21-9), who won the Ivy League as pretty good squad, but was 0-3 against the three tournament teams they faced and is a 13.5-point underdog. It is sad we won’t get to see Marquette (24-9) at full strength without Dominic James, and they better make sure they don’t get into slow down affair with Utah State (30-4), who is 13-4 and 10-5 ATS on the road. The wagering public hit the Aggies hard, taking them from seven-point underdog to 4.5 by morning.

West Region Sweet 16 Teams

Connecticut – Purdue – Memphis – Missouri

East Region

More than one expert likes the Pittsburgh Panthers (28-4) in the national championship game on April 6 and their coach Jamie Dixon, though not happy about Big East tournament effort, is pleased about the extra rest to have everybody healthy and ready to end recent tournament disappointments. For Pitt to advance beyond the Sweet 16, they must avoid what has curtailed them in their losses or struggles, which is two early fouls on DeJuan Blair in the first half. Blair’s brawn and skill opens up the playbook for forward Sam Young and others. After dispatching of East Tennessee State (23-10) as 20-point pick, Pittsburgh can look ahead to up and down conflict with either Oklahoma State (22-11) or Tennessee. The Cowboys have no size, but shoot the ball effectively and their only two defeats in last 10 tries have been to Missouri and in-state rival Oklahoma, who they later clipped in Big 12 tourney. The Volunteers (21-12) played like the more tired team in SEC title game and remain a mystery even today and are favored by two points.

Florida State (25-9) has a star in guard Toney Douglas who averaged 25 points per game in ACC tournament. The Seminoles have NBA size and should be too skilled for Wisconsin (19-12), as they are making first March Madness appearance in 11 years. You have to wonder if Xavier (25-7) peaked, as they are only 6-5 since February with more than one indifferent performance. Portland State (23-9) was the Big Sky champ and is not a super squad, but if taken too lightly, could surprise behind Jeremiah Dominguez, who was the Big Sky tournament MVP This is the Vikings second straight trip to tourney and could be dangerous dog on the receiving end of 11-points.

Duke (28-6) grabbed the second seed as presumed and is in much better shape this time around heading into NCAA event than a year ago. They are more mature, fresher and have more scoring options. Defensively, they are solid, but somewhat vulnerable to dribble penetration, which shouldn’t be a problem for the first couple of rounds. Binghamton (23-8) is making first ever showing in the tournament and graduate Tony Kornheiser can wear the jersey proudly for a few more days as 22-point pooch. Texas (22-11) just never clicked this season, lacking point guard play to start and later consistent outside shooting. The Longhorns should have enough as 3.5-point faves to hold off Minnesota (22-10), who was 5-8 ATS away from the Land of 10,000 lakes.

UCLA (25-8) better come East ready to play, otherwise they will be one and done against a Virginia Commonwealth (24-9) club that has star player in Eric Maynor. The Rams were the regular season and conference tournament champs and can play defense, holding foes to 39.7 percent shooting. VCU caught the attention of bettors immediately, going from 10-point underdog to seven. Villanova (26-7) has seven strong players that regularly make considerable contributions. Scottie Reynolds has to play well, as the Wildcats are 11-0 when he scores 18 or more points. American (24-7) was supposed to win the Patriot Conference and did behind senior guards Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer, but don’t matchup well as 17-point underdogs.

East Region Sweet 16 teams

Pittsburgh – Florida State – Duke – Villanova

South Region

If Ty Lawson is back to 100 percent, no reason why North Carolina should not be headed to the Motor City for the Final Four. In the past, when Lawson wasn’t healthy or playing up to usual standards, the Tar Heels (28-4) went from great to very good team. When he is out of the lineup, the other North Carolina players besides Tyler Hansbrough are out of rhythm and miss more shots than they normally would. Radford (21-11) will be a good warmup, though they have averaged 89.1 points per game in last six as Big South champs. If ever there was a contrast in styles, it is LSU and Butler tilt. The Tigers (26-7) were the class of the SEC by a wide margin; however after beating Kentucky in Lexington, they seemed to have let up and haven’t shot over 40 percent in losing three of last four contests. Butler (26-5) is deliberate and plays more cerebral and though they can’t match LSU ability-wise, they play solid defense and could frustrate Tigers as two-point (Bull)dogs.

Illinois (24-9) might be in the classic 5 vs 12 matchup, since they have shown since January, they can miss a large volume of shots in a row and take ugly losses. Western Kentucky (24-8) has peaked at the right time, winning 11 of last 12 (9-3 ATS), as senior Orlando Mendez-Valdez and junior A.J. Slaughter have stepped into the backcourt and played at a high level. This was on many people radar immediately, as the Hilltoppers went from 6.5-point dog to four.

If you prefer strong fundamentals in picking winners, Gonzaga (26-5) would be a wise selection. The Bulldogs have won 18 of 19 (only loss to Memphis) and are second in the nation in field goal defense at 36.8 percent. Coach Mark Few today has the team that many believed he would and they should move past Akron (23-12), since MAC teams have shown very little in recent years in this tournament.

If likely player of the year Blake Griffin and his older brother Taylor want to leave Oklahoma (27-5) in a blaze of glory, now would be the time to raise level of play. The Sooners have been off, with 2-4 and 1-5 ATS mark in last six. You wouldn’t believe Morgan State (23-11) would present a tremendous challenge, however Oklahoma might not cover the 16.5-points if bored. Clemson (23-8) could go either way in their contest against Michigan. The Tigers have superior athletes, nevertheless, their press is beatable with patience and they allow too many layups and dunks out of it. The Wolverines (20-13) are capable of putting together explosive output, but lack the consistency to be counted on positively to do so even as receiving five points. Michigan is only 6-10 ATS when not playing at Ann Arbor.

Syracuse (26-9) showed what they are capable of and has a multitude of weapons, which is why they finished 7-1 SU and ATS. With a natural letdown expected, look for Stephen F. Austin (24-7) to be tougher than expected with 12.5-points. For Arizona State’s sake, they better forget about nightmare second half in blowing Pac-10 title, since the Sun Devils (24-9) face Temple (22-11) who is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS since Feb.8. Two future NBA players, James Harden and Dionte Christmas will be on display and Arizona State is favored by five.

South Region Sweet 16 teams

North Carolina – Gonzaga – Oklahoma - Temple