College teams make case for Big Dance

This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt, UTEP and Ohio State are looking for brownie points in enhance position for NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi. Here is a look at what the three OTHER teams have to do tonight in the final week of college basketball.

Leave the alligator alone

Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.

“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”

Florida is a three-point home favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

Watch out for Thundering Herd

For the last several years, a good trivia question pertaining to college basketball would have been, “In 30 seconds, name the other teams in Conference USA besides Memphis?” With John Calipari taking his recruiting skills and likely probation to Kentucky, like a field filled with small holes, C-USA teams are like prairie dogs popping their heads above ground level and scurrying about. One such team is UTEP (22-5, 11-12 ATS), who is seeking outright title this evening in the state West Virginia and are set to be a treacherous foe for a higher seed in the Big Dance.

Another team trying to get noticed is Marshall (22-7, 14-8 ATS), who is 10-4 and in fourth place in C-USA. Not familiar with the Thundering Herd, than you are missing out. Marshall started the season 15-2, and then lost five in a row, with three of the losses by a total of nine points. This experience made this club tougher and they have reeled off seven wins in a row (4-2 ATS). The Herd holds teams to 38.7 percent shooting, 14th in the country. Marshall has a swatting machine in 6’11 Hassan Whiteside. The freshman leads the country in blocked shots at almost unimaginable 5.5 per game and his 159 rejection notices are 16th all-time in the NCAA with two games to go. For good measure, Whiteside also averages 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. Marshall is 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

This should be a tremendous matchup, as the Miners also play great defense (38.9 percent shooting allowed) and shoot the ball well (47.8) and create defensive pressure and are 15-6 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. Marshall is a slim one point favorite, with total having risen to 147.5 and the Herd is 8-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

What kind of fight does Illini have?

Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of last four contests.

The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.

Saturday College Basketball Matchups

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Early Line Moves

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for year is Early Line Moves.

If you read the interview with Fezzik, the professional bettor from Las Vegas, he explains how sharp bettors like himself hit the action early, pounding on weak numbers. (You can find the interview, take a minute or two) Over the years I’ve followed this regularly and over 77 percent of the time, the various segments I show make a profit over the season. Here is example of last year.

CFB sides 68-41 62.3 percent
CFB totals 48-36 57.1 percent
NFL sides 19-17 52.7 percent
NFL totals 32-22-1 59.2 percent

When you have those kinds of numbers, it’s hard to argue with the results. I’m always a skittish about week 1 numbers since so many people have has access, but over the last five seasons it still works out were the sports bettor makes money. Here are this week’s college football games. (For those not familiar with this, the numbers showing are opening figures and those found early in the week to establish differences)

Sides
Troy -4.5 to -7
North Texas +23 to +16
Navy +24 to +2 1
Notre Dame -10 to -14
BYU +25 to +22
Illinois -3 to -7
Minnesota -3.5 to -7
Wisconsin -14 to -16.5
Texas A&M -7 to -15
Idaho +6 to +3
UTEP -4.5 to -8
San Jose State +37 to +33.5
Tennessee -27 to -30

Totals
Oregon/Boise St 62 to 64
Troy/BG 58.5 to 56.5
W. Mich/Michigan 54 to 56
Nevada/N.D. 58 to 61
Minn/Syracuse 49 to 47

Big 10(11) Fraught with Danger for Bettors

The Big Ten Tournament is often a lot like watching your clothes in the wash cycle, not to exciting and everything keeps bumping into each other. If you live in the Midwest or are from there, don’t get all defensive, it’s just the way basketball is played in that area of the country, it’s hard and mean, very similar to the weather most of the year.

However, if you were a fan of either of the George Bush’s as Presidents or Ronald Reagan for that matter, Big Ten basketball is everything that is right about the world (no pun intended), because it is about playing defense and protecting your territory.

The four quarterfinal matchups bring an element of fear to the sports bettor, because this conference is bunched very closely. Michigan State proved to be head and shoulders above everyone else, winning by four games over nearest competitors. The bottom feeders, Indiana and Iowa have been rightly dispatched and based on history, Northwestern being ousted is not going to be on the home page of TMZ.com.

This leaves us with eight teams and this is where the intrigue begins. Michigan State is lock for next week and is playing for higher seed. Illinois and Purdue are safe, yet both need to win or could fall into dreaded 7vs 10 or 8 vs 9 matchups, which are the proverbial roll of the dice. The rest, well they have work to do.

Most bracketologists have Wisconsin and Ohio State safe; however it can never hurt to have one more win. This matchup takes on relevance since the winner can have a better story to tell being on CBS Saturday afternoon and have a legit shot at playing in the tournament finals. Sportbook.com has Wisconsin as two-point favorite, having won seven of last nine.

Though the Badgers have thrived in this event, this is not the same caliber of team. Wisky’s defense isn’t nearly as stout, with opponents making 44 percent of shot attempts. The offense has become known for being consistently inconsistent. In their last seven games, Wisconsin has shot in the 40 to 49.9 percent range just once, finishing three times in the 30’s and three times in the 50+ percent area.

The Buckeyes have won three of four, yet are 2-4 ATS in last six. Put Ohio State down for 16-6 ATS in all tournament games recently.

Just before Wisky and the Buckeyes play Friday afternoon, top-seeded Michigan State and Minnesota meet. The Golden Gophers ended a five game drought away from the Land of 10,000 lakes in numbing Northwestern 66-53. Minnesota is catching seven-points and was beaten solidly by the Spartans by 29 and 12 points this year. Will this provide enough incentive for Michigan State to make the Gophers look less than golden or do the Spartans let Minny hang around and possibly get clipped like Kansas? Michigan State is only 1-7 against the number if opponent is seeded seventh or lower.

Illinois finished the year losing three of last five, including last two contests in Big Ten action. The Fighting Illini is 8-5 SU and ATS away from home and will tackle Michigan, whom they have not seen in a day short of two months. The Wolverines used the whipping stick on Iowa on Thursday and are 8-2 ATS since February, including having strung four in a row together. Like Minnesota, the team from Ann Arbor is on the fence and has to keep piling up wins and hope similar teams like Providence and Kansas State continue to fall. Michigan split with Illinois and are playing better than the Illini right now. The Wolverines are 2.5-point dogs.

Penn State is the last bubble-type out of the Big Ten who manhandled Indiana as expected. The Nittany Lions already have one win over third-seeded Purdue and has covered seven straight Big Ten tourney tilts. The Boilermakers were coming strong, however, lost three of last four, making them as big a mystery in this tournament as any remaining squad. Purdue is a seven-point favorite and if you believe in history, the No.3 seed has failed to cover the spread each time since 2004.

Six of the eight teams still left have .500 or better against the spread records, setting up real thought provoking picks for sports bettors.