MLB Series Wagering- Marlins at Braves

The general consensus from Florida players was the three game series in Puerto Rico was “different”, however at least it was successful, as they captured two of three against the New York Mets. The Marlins are glad to be back in the lower 48, even if it means taking on the team with the best home record in baseball.

Florida (-6 units) is in fourth place in the National League East with 37-41 record and a trifle rudderless with interim manager Edwin Rodriguez calling the shots, but that is life under owner Jeffrey Loria, who expects prime kobe beef steak, as long as if doesn’t cost much.

Manager Bobby Cox farewell tour is going swimmingly, with Atlanta (46-33, +8.7) atop the division. The Braves offensively are playing a brand of baseball that is a sum of parts rather than individual components. Atlanta’s team batting average is eighth in the National League at .259 and this is a club sorely lacking in power, ranking 12th in home runs (61) and 13th in total bases. Yet, they are third in total runs scored in the senior circuit and are the best in on-base percentage at .347. The larger reason for this higher ranking is the patience at the dish with 342 walks, compared to league average of 264, which are 78 more chances to score without ever putting the ball in play.

While a great deal of focus has been rightly shone on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, with his brilliant season to date, tonight’s pitcher for the Fish, Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83 ERA), has allowed six earned runs in his last nine starts, the same as Jimenez. Johnson and Florida are 31-14 against division opponents, which includes 7-4 vs. Atlanta. The 6’7 right-hander is 4-2 with 2.91 ERA against the Braves has permitted a .545 on-base slugging percentage this season, the lowest of any pitcher in the majors.

Kris Medlen (5-1, 3.15) started the season in the bullpen, but the 24-year old has eight quality starts in nine appearances since joining the rotation on May 8. Medlen and the Bravos are +106 home underdogs, which is noteworthy with Atlanta 28-9 (+15.2 units) at home. The Braves this season are 23-9 playing against a team with a losing record, but are 7-15 facing a pitcher who allows a home run or less every other start. Florida’s Johnson is 17-4 vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game (Marlins Record) and is 23-8 since the beginning of last year, the third best record in the big leagues.

Game 1 Edge: Florida

Game 2 in the series is a regional FOX telecast and it’s the second of a 10-game road trip for Florida. While the Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward has garnered a great deal of attention, the Marlins might end having the NL rookie of the year. First baseman Gaby Sanchez leads all rookies in batting average, base hits, doubles and on-base percentage. When asked about his lack of notoriety Sanchez responded, "I don't mind at all, I'd rather be under the radar and coast through."

One player not coasting is Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for Florida. Sanchez has 10 quality starts from the total of 15 he’s been given the ball and the team is 4-1 when he has five days rest.

Atlanta counters with Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) who’s hit the wall. His last two starts read like this – 7 1/3 innings, 21 hits, 14 earned runs permitted, for 17.18 ERA. (Yikes) Even after being knocked around, Hanson and his teammates are 9-3 in his last dozen starts and are 17-3 at Turner Field coming into this series.

The Braves are 36-15 in the second game of a series and the Marlins are 4-9 most recently.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

The series finale pits Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) against veteran Tim Hudson (8-3, 2.37). The Atlanta right-hander has been exceptional all season long, conceding more than three runs once in his 16 trips to the slab. The Braves began this series 40-17 as favorites. The Marlins are drowning in the role of underdog, 11-22 as of Friday and they hope Nolasco’s bugaboo doesn’t arise again. The five year veteran has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in 2010, but he’s been leaving too many pitches in the zone and has been taken deep 19 times already this season. A 5:05 local start time should help pitchers with more shadows.

Game 3 Edge: Braves

This is the Marlins first trip into Atlanta this season and they are 9-9 the past two years and 19-20 overall against the Braves since 2008. Florida would seem to have a legitimate opportunity to win this series because they can match Atlanta’s starting pitching. Nonetheless, baseball is a nine inning contest and with how well the Bravos are playing at home and having decided edge in the bullpen (Marlins pen ERA is 4.65 vs. Braves 3.37), a series wager on manager Cox’s club appears prudent.

Sports books series odds: Florida +140, Atlanta -1703

3Daily Winners Pick: Atlanta

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

Baseball Betting Choice – The Rook or the Vet

Stephen Strasburg’s rookie debut has caused quite a stir in baseball, showcasing his incredible ability. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) is 13 years older than his mound opponent on Monday night and could put his right arm around the youngster and share his wisdom, having already traveled down this road. Instead, he will try and out-duel the younger phenom.

Strasburg’s (2-1, 1.78) highly anticipated professional campaign has been marked by a number of first’s, the last being his first loss in the Major Leagues, a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. Though he permitted a season-high nine base hits in his six innings of work, he did strike out nine Royals batters, walking none for the third time in four starts. He also broke a record that has stood since 1955, fanning 41 hitters in his first four initial starts.

“I know there’s going to be times when it’s going to be like this in the future,” Strasburg said. “And there’s going to be times when I’m not pitching well, and they’ll just go out there and score a ton of runs and save me. It’s baseball.”

Lost in all the excitement of Strasburg becoming a member of Washington (33-43), is their recent futility. The Nationals are 3-13 since the right-hander arrived in D.C. and they swept Pittsburgh June 8-10. The most recent three losses were a real embarrassment even for the Nats, as they lost all three games to regional rival Baltimore. That was just the Orioles second sweep of the season and their first ever over Washington since they arrived in the area in 2005.
Hudson is all the way back for last year’s surgery pitching for Atlanta (44-32), which has the best home record in the big leagues at 26-8. Hudson has sparkled at Turner Field with 4-1 record and 1.87 ERA, allowing only 23 hits in 33 1/3 innings. The right-hander has enjoyed any matchup with Washington, sporting an 8-1 record and minuscule 1.62 ERA. In his career, Hudson is 58-22 in home games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)

Oddsmakers have the Braves as -115 money line favorites, with total Ov.6.5. Atlanta enters this series opener 14-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 9-2 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.

Washington will try and avoid the usual doldrums that affect them, as they are 30-62 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 2008 and 23-10 UNDER in the same role since last season.

This NL East matchup is on ESPN2 at 7:10 Eastern and surprisingly these teams have split the last 18 contests in Atlanta.

Sunday's Material

Those pesky Padres keep coming up with ways to win, which caused me a losing day and fell to 87-49. This Sunday we’ll look to bring it back around starting with a Top Trend from the I-70 series. Ron goes after another winner in the Lone Star state and one home favorite is in an 84.8 percent system. Good Luck

What I saw and heard yesterday – I’m looking a video from yesterday in MLB, if I can’t find, I’ll just relate the story later today.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like Oakland with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the past five years this system is 56-10, 84.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kansas City is 3-15 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron was 2-1 yesterday giving him 11-4 record of late and is riding the Rangers to take the Texas tussle.

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Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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