Top seeds picked to previal out West

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters. Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Bookmaker.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a 4.5-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

Higher seeds intent on moving to Sweet 16

The final three contests of Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament have variety. A top seed takes on a hot team from a poor-mouthed conference, a three-seed is expected to be tested by a squad with ample tourney experience and fourth seed is listed underdog, not playing with all its weaponry. This trio of wagering options will fill the Sweet 16 dance card.

ACC power on parade

Duke tied for the ACC regular season title and walked away with conference tournament and faces California of the much maligned Pac-10. Funny thing about the left-coasters, both teams that made it to the NCAA’s moved on to second round, proving at least at the top, this league was not too bad. The Blue Devils cover the six-point spread at DiamondSportsbook.com if they establish inside presence against the Bears with Kyle Singler, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas doing the dirty work, freeing up the perimeter shooters to score. Expect the Blue Devils to work inside out and they are 6-0 ATS after two straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent.

California’s best shot to pull the upset is staying glued to outside shooters from Duke and beat them down the floor in transition. If Jerome Randle can keep the Bears at high octane level to wear down the bigger Duke players, they’ll be able to take best shot since they are 10-2 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. (Posted total is 143.5)

Pittsburgh against the X-Men

The Panthers and Xavier matchup opened with the Musketeers as a one-point favorite, moved to a Pick and now is a single digit underdog. Pittsburgh moves Salt Lake City if they can remain consistent. All season the Panthers have had players running hot and cold. That means Ashton Gibbs, Gilbert Brown, Gary McGhee, Travon Woodall and Dante Taylor all have to play within themselves and not try and be heroes. Pitt is 10-3 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points game this season.

The oddsmakers are telling us Xavier is very close to playing the way they want with total of 135.5. The Musketeers are 22-3 and 18-6 ATS, when they score 70 or more points and are very potent offensively averaging 79.6 points per contest.

Xavier will have to shoot better than 34.3 percent from the field like they did against Minnesota or they will be in real trouble, as three seeds are 8-1 SU against six seeds in this round.

Purdue could be predicament

The Boilermakers clearly haven't been the same without Robbie Hummel and will have to depend on defense to hold off Texas A&M. The Boilermakers will have to play sensational defense like they did against Siena (32.9 percent) and try and avoid long periods of not scoring. Junior guard E'Twaun Moore and center JaJuan Johnson will probably have to total 40 or more points and have at least two others score around 10 points each. Purdue is 15-26 ATS after playing three straight games as favorite over the last two seasons.

Texas A&M can defend as they proved against Utah State, holding the Aggies to 53 points, compared to average of 73 PPG. Donald Sloan is the inspirational leader and facilitator of the offense and center Bryan Davis is a rugged inside player. Coach Mark Turgeon has done a masterful job in blending the veterans with his youngsters, especially with the loss of Derrick Roland back in December to compound fracture. The Aggies are two-point favorites and 14-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 3:50 PM MST

I got an email from a guy who is a pretty sharp bettor who told me to play Michigan on the money line. I didn’t see it until after the game had started, I can only hope he also had the Wolverines against the spread.

An absolutely superb performance by Michigan in which they should have won the game, but their coach John Beilein had his team push hard for 39 minutes and 57.8 seconds and just like a football coach, goes into prevent defense. There is really no defending their defense in those few precious seconds. Manny Harris and his teammates deserved better, but their coach didn’t do his job at crunch time.

You have to give props to Evan Turner, it was a remarkable shot and what ESPN’s Steve Lavin said, I thought as it was happening, great form by Turner to give him and his team a chance.

How do you figure Illinois? For 35 minutes they looked like they should have tied for the Big Ten title, great precision on offense and stifling defense. Wisconsin ended shooting 28.6 percent for the game and was outrebounded by five and certainly did not look like Bo Ryan coached team as eight point favorites.

The top plays from the handicappers today look like this today. St. Louis (L) Florida State, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Xavier.

The earlier numbers for Dog Hunters

A handful of games had early lines for Friday, with the matchups already predetermined. For this week, the idea, especially before Saturday, is to find the best value, which means hunting for underdogs. Here is a look at the chances of those dogs that were assigned early numbers, attempting to figure out if they can cover or win outright.

St. Bonaventure’s needs your prayers

The Bonnies won their opening game 83-71 over DuQuesne as a one-point favorite. After torching the nets early in the season, conference play slowed down St. Bonaventure’s. However, recently the team has regained their shooting eye, converting on 49.2 percent or more in their last four outings. The Bonnies are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS in last six contests; unfortunately they will be up against Temple defense that allows 56.8 points per game and 38.1 percent.

The Owls have won seven straight and nine or 10, with only loss at highly respected Richmond. Temple has won and covered last nine meetings by an average of 19.2 per game. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Owls sitting as 10-point favorites and they are 6-0 ATS as neutral site favorites for this high noon start.

Underdog Cover Chance – Slimmer than Heidi Montag

Contrast in style

St. Louis is the higher seed at four; nevertheless, they are the underdog to Rhode Island by three-points. Oddmakers tip their hat to coach Rick Majerus, but are not convinced the Billikens 8-2 SU and ATS close to the season is for real. Ignorance is bliss for St. Louis, since they perfectly suited for this moment, having only been favored twice during this stretch. The average total score of a Billikens game is just over 122 points, while the Rams prefer the speedy 94-foot version that goes up and down to the tune of 148.6 total points a contest.

Oddsmakers might be giving an indication of what they really think having the total at 128.5, definitely at more a St. Louis pace. Rhode Island sunk St. Joe’s at home Tuesday by nine points, giving them three victories in last eight games with 1-6-1 ATS record. The Rams are in the subemployment area with 2-8-1 ATS record as favorite.

Underdog Cover Chance – Better than coach Majerus missing next meal

Illini-wreck

The fight has come out of Illinois, losing five of six with two covers. After shooting 49 percent or better five out of six times from Jan.23 –Feb. 9, the Fighting Illini have become card caring members of the welders union having to repair broken rims since they have been clanging hoists at 38.3 percent or worse in most contests. (5 of 6) They shot 35.6 percent against today’s opponent Wisconsin only five days ago and they are 0-5 SU and ATS at neutral site locations.

The Badgers are favored by eight-points which seems a bit generous, but they are 12-4 and 9-5 ATS off a spread cover and are 5-0 ATS after scoring in 68-79 point range this year.

Underdog Cover Chance – Better than Simon Cowell and Sting having lunch.

Dayton chasing bid

Dayton was the preseason choice to be A-10 champions this campaign, instead it turns out they weren’t even the second best team in Ohio from the Atlantic 10. The Flyers reached the 20-win barrier with non-cover 70-60 home win against George Washington in opening round and needs more W’s to be strongly considered for NCAA bid. The players understand their task.

“We just know we have to give it our all every single night and we cannot let up," Dayton forward Kurt Huelsman said. "We're not perfect, nobody's perfect and we made mistakes. But we have to learn and move on." Dayton is just 1-6-1 ATS and faces their biggest rival Xavier.
The Musketeers have rattled off seven wins in a row and 11 of 12 (9-3 ATS) and are playing for A-10 title and NCAA seeding. Xavier has scars from last Dayton dual, being thrashed 90-65 and is listed as three-point fave. The favored squad has covered 13 of the previous 17 conflicts.

Underdog Cover Chance – Similar to driving Toyota, risky

Massachusetts dealing with arachnophobia

The Minutemen were the one lower seed (11th) to pull the upset in the opening round of A-10 tourney. They upset Charlotte 59-56 as nine-point road underdogs, despite shooting 32.1 percent. Next up is one the best defensive teams in the country in Richmond, who is also very efficient on offense. On the year, UMass shoots only 40.1 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from three-point range. Those figures correlate with the Spiders defensive numbers.

Massachusetts is on the receiving end of 9.5-points and is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site dog. The bright side is the Minutemen are 7-3 ATS with two days rest and has covered three previous meetings with Richmond. Unfortunately, these Spiders really get under opposing teams skin, with 10 wins in 11 tries (9-1-1 ATS) and only defeat was at Xavier by two in double overtime.

Underdog Cover Chance – The movie “Cop Out” for Oscar nomination

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

Saturday College Basketball Matchups

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Are Favorites in Peril in East Regional?

Most of the NCAA Tournament has progressed along as expected. The East region is one of two brackets that have seen all four top seeds march to the round of Sweet 16, as predicted. The top two seeds, Pittsburgh and Duke, have seen more trepidation than expected, making them potential upset victims as we head into the next round of action.

Pittsburgh (30-4, 17-11 ATS) is particular has looked inept. The earlier passion, has given way to indifference for better than 30 minutes in each contest thus far in the tournament. They have shown an inability to rise up defensively, allowing opponents to do what they do best. In the East Tennessee State non-cover, Pitt allowed them to play at their pace and the Buccaneers took 20 more shots than Panthers, giving them chances to stay in the game. In the win over Oklahoma State, they did a poor job of defending the perimeter against the Cowboys long-range shooting and gave up far too many unimpeded trips to the bucket.

Maybe the gravity of the situation will finally hit Pittsburgh, who is 11-4 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight points a game this season. One aspect in the Panthers favor is Xavier plays more traditional style instead of helter-skelter. The Musketeers (27-7, 19-12-1 ATS) are now an established Top 20 program and are in the Sweet 16 for the third time in five seasons. Under coach Sean Miller, Xavier plays smart basketball and is 12-3 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Xavier is a seven-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 138.5 and is 10-2 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5. Jason Love is off a pair of ineffective outings and has to produce against the beefy Pittsburgh front line.

Guard Jermaine Dixon has to help out his teammates more than 1-7 effort thus far. Fortunately, Levance Fields has been hitting shots or Pitt would have no outside game. Four seeds are meager 4-13 in this round, but are nearly 50-50 wager at 8-9 ATS.

Duke (30-6, 16-17-2 ATS) players deserve a lot of credit, finding ways to win games. The Blue Devils have won 10 of last 11 and though they might not be the apple of the bettor’s eye with 5-5-1 ATS mark, you have to admire their courage in challenging situations. Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler have been players that bring moisture to Dick Vitale’s eyes; however can a team really advance to Elite Eight with almost no inside presence, even with 16-6 ATS record off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite?

Villanova (28-7, 17-14 ATS) presents different demands on Duke. The Wildcats thrive when Scottie Reynolds is sharp, however they are dominate when he and Dante Cunningham are working together. Cunningham is the team's main man on the inside, both scoring and on the boards and where Coach K finds an answer to stop him will ultimately be the deciding factor. Villanova has been glass-eaters in the tournament and are 14-4 ATS after two games outrebounding opponents by 10 or more.

Duke is favored by two-points, with 148 total and they are 6-16 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5. Villanova has shown a proclivity to play with high scoring teams and is 9-2 ATS versus clubs scoring 77 or points a game this season. Found this little nugget, ACC teams are 12-2 UNDER in the Sweet 16.

Sunday Wagering Action

The Washington Huskies just missed out on a win, thus had to settle for 1-2 day. Saturday’s lone winner was a NBA system play and we’ll come right back with another, which is 80.6 percent. Today’s Top Trend is perfect and involves a Big 12 team in action. The Left Coast Connection is 100 percent behind one team in college basketball today. Good Luck.

I believe Jay Bilas will get an assignment for the Sweet 16 on CBS. If you want to play a drinking game, throw one back every time Bilas says “ball screen”, you’ll never see the second half.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more. The team that fits this NBA system is Oklahoma City and the record is a sparkling 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less shooting percentage after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick is among the 11 LCC bettors on Xavier today, believing they move on to Sweet 16 with win and cover.

College Hoops Futures Bets

In last week’s college basketball article, I looked at the past five years of Final Four teams and their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as well as the differential between the two. Using the minimum numbers for each category that occurred over the past five seasons, I made a list of teams who achieved as high or higher number in all three areas. My list of teams numbered sixteen last week.

After using current data, five teams fell out of my qualifying Final Four list and one new one emerged to reduce this week’s slate to 12 teams. Three teams fell out because their defensive efficiency number worsened above the minimum, Missouri, Utah, and Georgetown. Illinois and Kentucky’s offensive efficiency numbers were reduced below our required minimum. Any of these teams can show up on the list again. This week’s list is as follows ranked by the best margin between offensive and defensive efficiency:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Gonzaga
6. West Virginia
7. Arizona State
8. Wake Forest
9. Washington
10. Butler
11. Xavier
12. Villanova

I like to look for inside-outside scoring capabilities on a team. A team cannot rely too much on any one player for their points. Balance is key. Having at least two good shooters from three-point range is a strong benefit when playing against a zone. Sure, players like Davidson’s Stephen Curry are special and many times can carry a team on their shoulders. However, it is very difficult for one player to be able to do that for the five NCAA Tournament wins it takes to become national champion.

The past five years has seen two number-one seeds playing in the championship game three times with the other two years having #2 versus #3 seeds to win it all. Out of the 20 Final Four teams, every squad has been no lower than a #3 seed except for two #4’s, one #5, and a rogue #11, George Mason in 2005-06.

In looking at wagering on a futures bet to win it all, I didn’t want to get worse than 10 to 1 odds so that eliminated a number of my teams. Let’s examine some of the ones I considered.Villanova’s 6-8 forward Sr. Dante Cunningham is having a breakout season leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. However, after improving last season, Jr. Scottie Reynolds has digressed in shooting this year behind the arc while falling to a field goal percentage of 39.0%. Nova is only 2-4 this season against teams in the top 50 RPI. The Wildcats should fall from my list of top Final Four candidates soon.

West Virginia plays tremendous defense but has had difficulties closing games out. While 6-7 Jr. Da’Sean Butler is an all-Big East caliber player, the Mountaineers have two freshmen in their top 5 minute earners with one of those being their point guard, Truck Bryant. They also have the lowest offensive effective field goal percentage of our 12 teams and along with Washington, are the only team to be below 50% in that category.

Xavier played an exceptional non-conference schedule this year helping prepare them for the Atlantic 10 conference race. They have beaten the likes of Missouri, Memphis, and LSU. Their two losses this season were against fellow elite teams on our list, Duke and Butler. Playing their worst game of the year, the Musketeers were down by 31 points at halftime to Duke before losing by 18. The next game was against Butler where Xavier turned the ball over 17 times and put the Bulldogs at the free-throw line for 33 attempts where Butler shot 78.8%. The bright side was they held Butler to just 35.1% shooting.The Musketeers are a well balanced team with three players scoring in double-digits. Any one of five players can go off for 20. A good inside-outside combo in F Derrick Brown and G C.J. Anderson, a gritty competitor. The team shoots the ball well aided by a lot of back screens, play very good defense, and have the best rate in the country at getting to the charity stripe. Their downside is they have the worst turnover rate of our 12 squads, losing the rock on 22.1% of their possessions, 247th in the country. Xavier doesn’t get the national publicity they deserve. They normally play a top 50 non-conference schedule and have had very good post-season success. The Musketeers have gone to three straight NCAA tournaments and seven in the last eight years. They made the Elite Eight last season before losing to UCLA in the West regional final and are one of only nine programs to make multiple appearances in the final eight in the last five years. Xavier is a projected #4 seed by collegerpi.com. At 75 to 1 current odds, that is a long-shot wager I am going to take. I am not saying the Musketeers are going to win it all, but this is a wager that has value to me.

While Butler has beaten Xavier and UAB with their only loss coming at Ohio State by 3 points, I cannot take a flyer on the Bulldogs to capture the college crown as they are ranked 340th out of 344 Division 1 schools in experience. Butler has two freshmen and two sophomores starting.

The University of Washington is playing the best defense they have for the past six seasons, including when they made the Sweet 16 in 2006 led by Brandon Roy where they lost in overtime to UConn. The Huskies don’t make many three’s ranking in the bottom ten nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc. Washington didn’t play a very tough non-con slate losing to Kansas and Florida in a November tournament in Kansas City. The only other Top 50 school they played was a win at home over Oklahoma State. U-Dub is the second worst shooting team and they have the worst defensive effective field goal percentage out of our elite dozen. This past weekend on the road they beat another of our group, Arizona State, after they had dropped a game to Arizona two nights earlier. The Huskies are led by Frosh sparkplug PG Isaiah Thomas and the physical 6-7 Sr Jon Brockman. Even though the Pac-10 is down this year and I don’t like the UW coach very much plus I have my doubts on the Huskies’ true defensive capabilities, at odds of 100 to 1 to becoming the champions, I am going to skip taking the wife out to dinner one night this week and go drop a Benjamin on a Washington futures bet.

After all, who thought the Arizona Cardinals would be within three minutes of winning the Super Bowl?I listed the odds for the teams on my list of winning the championship courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Wake Forest was 14 to 1. At that price I put money on Wake to end up #1. Wake plays at a frenetic pace, seventh fastest in D-1. The Deamon Deacons play superb defense, #5 in defensive efficiency. Even though they have exceptional size, they cover the perimeter like a blanket ranking third in D-1 in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They have beaten two teams on my current list, North Carolina and Duke, and two others that are close to being on the list, BYU and Clemson. They are also exceptional in a stat I like to look at, defensive assist-to-field goal ratio. Wake gets to march to the line frequently ranking 20th in their percentage free throw attempts to field goal attempts, 45.4. Collegerpi.com has Wake as one of their current #1 seeds.

I mentioned that Villanova is a team that will probably slide off my list of potential FF teams, and obviously there are some who could possibly move on to the list. Purdue is projected as a #4 seed and just needs to get and stay as healthy as possible while adding one more point to their OE. Rick Pitino’s Louisville is doing their normal second half of the season surge and only need to improve their OE two points to qualify for our list. While Oklahoma is listed as one of the four #1 seeds by collegerpi.com, they have to improve their defensive efficiency by more than 2 points to make my potential Final Four list.

Sure, this is just the first week of February. It is never too early to look at futures bets. It is similar to playing the lottery, but the people who had Celtics futures tickets last year aren’t complaining.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority drops by to share his wisdom.

Betting College Hoops Totals Successfully

There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.

In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?

While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.

When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.

Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.

Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.

The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.

I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.

When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.

Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.

It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.

If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.

A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.

Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.

To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.

The basic creed for winning betting college hoops totals is to know thy teams.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is noted basketball expert.