Colonial and WCC Conference Wagering Previews

The college conference action starts to build in earnest today with four more gearing up for action, to go along with those that have commenced. Our focus is on two that will have a championship game on ESPN this coming Monday night, the Colonial and West Coast conferences. Both leagues feature teams that have enjoyed NCAA tournament success and should have highly competitive events. In addition, we have some of the top wagering information on each conference, so let’s move ahead in these exciting days of March.

Colonial Athletic Association Preview

The CAA has enjoyed another exciting campaign and this year’s postseason tourney is sure to match. Five teams have a legitimate chance to be crowned champs with one more lurking on the outside. Old Dominion (23-8, 10-16-1 ATS) was the regular season champion, thanks in part to unblemished (15-0) home record. What is concern about the Monarchs is they don’t shoot the ball that well (44.8 percent), with many of their baskets coming on offensive rebounds as put-backs. This would seem to make them vulnerable. Northeastern (19-11, 15-13-1 ATS) doesn’t come in playing well, having lost three of last six (0-6 ATS) and not playing typically tough defense. George Mason (17-13, 11-15-1 ATS) has been in the finals the last three years and though talented, are very young, which could make them finalist or one and done.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 13-12 -1 ATS) has won the CAA tourney two of the last three years and has center Larry Sanders, who can be domineering player. The Rams style of pressure defense is disruptive and they have pedigree for this event, plus the advantage of playing in their home town of Richmond. William & Mary (20-9, 15-9-1 ATS) has been in the conference chase all season, however this is new territory for them, though they have the league’s best road record at 10-6 and 10-5 ATS. If you want a good long shot, try Hofstra (18-13, 14-14-1 ATS), they’ve won nine of 10 and are 9-3-1 ATS in true road games.

Betting notes- Favorites of less than 10 points have been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 2002, sporting 40-19 ATS record…. Underdogs of 10 or more points are an unbelievable of late, showing mediocre 2-15 SU record but astonishing 15-2 ATS (88.2 percent) mark since 2003….Total players can cash with bankroll building 37-17 UNDER record in the last six years. … In the championship game, the favored team has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75 percent).

Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Hofstra final

West Coast Conference Preview

This is one of the most dependable tournaments in determining at least one of the teams to be in the finals. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-10-2 ATS) has been the class of the WCC for years and has been a finalist every year since 1998, being the champions nine times. They will again be heavily favored, playing in Las Vegas again, with the matter of whom their opponent might be.
St. Mary’s (24-5, 18-9-1 ATS) and Portland (20-9, 14-10-1 ATS) are presumed to be the only two candidates worthy and the Bulldogs have won and covered against them in four tries this season. The Gaels and Pilots are expected to square off a third time in the semis, with each having won on their home court.

St. Mary’s would appear to have the edge with 10-3 SU road record (9-3 ATS) and difference-maker like center Omar Samhan in the paint. The Gaels are not a lock, as Portland has a good club and knows the only way to make NCAA Tournament is winning the West Coast tourney. Should these teams meet as expected, there matchup on ESPN2 Sunday night might be better than the finals.

Betting Notes -Favorites of seven or more are 27-0 SU and 19-8 ATS in the WCC tournamentsince 1998….Favorites own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the last 12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) record in Round One….Neutral floor chalk of seven points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4 percent) in the WCC tournament since 1998….Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 2001, are 10-1 OVER the number.

Prediction: Gonzaga and Portland final

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

NIT has Quality Contest for Bettors Attention

Normally, the early rounds of the NIT are about as anticipated as another episode of “Chuck “on NBC. That changes this year, at least for one game, when Davidson travels to Moraga, CA. to take on St. Mary’s in the second round no less of the National Invitational Tournament.

What has caused the uproar of having the 3,500 seat McKeon Pavilion sold out in the fastest time ever in school history, well, just like in the days of the Old West, a hotshot gunslinger is coming to town and plain folks want to see what he has and the locals want to see how he holds up against their guy, who’s returning to form after being wounded.

Davidson (27-7, 14-16-2 ATS) has Stephen Curry who took the Wildcats within one late missed three-point shot of being one of the biggest surprise Final Four teams in years, losing to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. Davidson was upset by College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament semi-finals, which relegated them to the NIT this season. The Wildcats simply are not as good as last year’s squad, but have continued to show to be a wise road wager since Curry stepped on campus with a 29-11-1 ATS record as visitors.

St. Mary’s (27-6, 17-12 ATS) is excited about the opportunity to play in nationally recognized contest, yet you know they believe it would be them, not Arizona, in the Sweet 16 if they would have been given the chance. The Patty Mills injury and subsequent play sent the Gaels in this direction and the best thing they can do is win the tournament to prove their point.

St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and Mills looks to be at or near full strength, scoring 27 points against Washington State in NIT opener. Curry laid 32 on South Carolina, his 15th game of 30 or more this season, and relishes the competition.

“It's beyond just me and him (Mills) out there playing, “Curry said. “ I'm just excited to go out there and play and take on a new, different opponent."

While both schools easily score in the 70’s, the coaches will stress defense. Davidson holds opposing teams to 39.6 percent shooting and is 15-4 and 9-8 ATS on the road. St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good at 41.3 percent, nonetheless holds opponents to fewer points at 63.8 points per game, compared to the Wildcats 65.5.

Davidson is a four-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 143, which is a role they have embraced, posting 11-1 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is 14-1 and 6-6 ATS at home and is 7-1 against the number when a favorite or underdog of 10 or less points on home floor.

"The Steph-Patty Mills matchup, everyone is talking about it," Davidson forward Steve Rossiter said. "I just got to make sure I don't get caught watching during the game."

ESPN2 hopes people are interested enough to want to check out the action, though the 11:30 Eastern time slot might be arduous for those in the East and Midwest. Keep in mind Davidson is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less, winning by an average of 1.6 points.