Friday evening is moving day in NBA Playoffs

One of two things happens to start the weekend in professional basketball, either a series will conclude and the winning squad can start thinking about their next series and opponent or the competing teams will return to familiar locale for a Game 7 on Sunday. This makes for real drama as a trio of series underdogs look to wrap-up or extend a series.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:00E ESPN

Though the hip-hop generation of NBA players likely doesn’t include many U2 fans, a song comes to mind watching Atlanta and Milwaukee the last three games, “Desire”.

The Bucks performance in pulling the 91-87 upset as nine-point favorites was unremarkable, given the fact they shot 40.3 percent for the game, were outscored at the center position 25-4 and saw various players disappear for long stretches even when they were on the floor.

Yet, if one game defines a team and its coach, it was Game 5 for Milwaukee with their desire. Scott Skiles grinded away as a college and NBA player and his less-talented contingent played like he did his whole career. This Bucks team is 14-4 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season and goes for the first surprise of the playoffs.

Atlanta showed what they were made of as Josh Smith, Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford all decided individually they were going to be “the man” and went about their business trying to take their defenders one on one with passing the ball be damned. Once again the Hawks proved they are not mature TEAM and that they lack heart. Peering ahead it is little wonder this team is 1-10 ATS revenging a home loss this season.

Sportsbooks still has the more talent-laden Atlanta squad as two-point favorites, however it would take a large dosage of courage to back a team that is 1-10 SU and ATS on the playoff road the last three seasons. Milwaukee was the best spread team in the NBA this campaign and it is continuing in the playoffs. They are 20-6 ATS having covered the spread in three or more consecutive contests.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The people of the United States are known for their short attention spans and ever increasing shorter memories. In this celebrity-status world, it’s easy to jump on the latest fad and forget about what is tried and true.

The basketball world has become infatuated with latest new kids on the block, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are young, talented, and fearless and their youth doesn’t allow them to be discouraged for long.

The eminent demise of the Los Angeles Lakers has been discussed from coast to coast on talk radio and every chatroom and blog one could stumble upon. The world had lost track of just how good the Lakers can be last playing a complete basketball game on Mar. 12 in Phoenix, 21 games ago or a lifetime in today’s hectic world.

But the Lakers came prepared, executed their game plan Tuesday evening, integrating all the parts of the triangle offense to perfection and showed why gold and purple still matters. L.A. is 26-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four.

Oklahoma City gladly returns home, even faced with elimination and is a one-point favorite with total of 194.5. The Thunder is thunderous 15-5 ATS off a road loss and uncanny 27-8 ATS after failing to cover the number. OKC is 13-3 UNDER at the Ford Center after wearing the visiting blue togs. The Lakers will seek to deliver the knockout blow, but are 1-9 ATS off a cover. Kobe and company are 22-8 UNDER with two days’ rest.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

At least for a day, no negative tweets, talk or posturing out of Denver as they held off first match point against Utah at home Wednesday 116-102.

Focal point Carmelo Anthony must have made his case strong enough that he needed help as five other Nuggets scored in double figures and more importantly, the team collectively took a defensive stance, holding the Jazz to series low 45.2 percent.

“Everybody stepped up tonight and did their part,” Anthony said after the game. “With Nene going down early, ‘Frenchie’ came in and stepped up, ‘Bird’ played the way he is supposed to be playing. Everybody played their role tonight. That’s how we won.”

Denver’s more fluid offense is easily measured; they are 47-8 SU when they have 20 or more assists and 9-24 SU when fall below that figure. The Nuggets cannot afford anything less than the same work ethic and compulsion to team work if they expect to continue series and add to 7-3 ATS mark in the first round of postseason.

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a double digit defeat and did not match Denver’s intensity from last contest. “They were a lot more alive, they went after the ball a little harder than we did,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said. “The players off the bench gave them a big lift. Their bench people killed us.”

Utah is up a six-point home favorite, with the total at 215.5 and might face Denver club without Nene, whose been diagnosed with a sprained knee. The Jazz are 17-4 ATS off a road loss and will continue to keep the offense flowing thru Deron Williams, who became the first player in NBA history to record five straight 20-point/10-assist double-doubles to begin a series.

“Stuff was too easy (for the Nuggets),” Williams said. “We have to get back to playing our basketball.”

The odds are not in Denver’s favor with recent 1-8-1 ATS away slide, but if they want to force a deciding Game 7 at the Pepsi Center on Sunday, they will have to find a way.

NBA Game 5's are pivotal

Four teams in professional basketball have a huge stake in the outcome of tonight’s games. The winner in Milwaukee and Atlanta takes series lead and the loser faces elimination in next contest. Denver is already facing the possibility of having their season end tonight, while the gutty and determined Utah Jazz are looking to advance to next round with a win.

Home is where the heart is

The Atlanta Hawks believed they had reached a point in their growth process that they should be thought as serious Eastern Conference contenders at the very least. Instead they look very much like the Atlanta team of two years ago, still searching for true identity against Milwaukee club that has their best player on the sidelines in a suit.

It’s definitely frustrating,” guard Joe Johnson said Tuesday after the Hawks practiced for the pivotal fifth game. “We come into this situation talking so much about what we’re going to do—this and that, this and that—yet we haven’t done nothing. We haven’t done nothing we set out to do.”

Atlanta is a miserable road playoff team but returns home where the comfort level is more to their liking. The Hawks are 36-7 and 27-16 ATS at Phillips Arena, winning by 8.6 points per contest. Atlanta has won 14 consecutive home games and is 7-2 ATS in last nine.

Milwaukee is receiving different contributions, which has helped them overcome the loss of Andrew Bogut. Dan Gadzuric has given valuable minutes off the bench and Carlos Delfino buried six 3-pointers in Game 4 to help the Bucks square the series and they are 27-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.

Sportsbooks have Atlanta as nine-point favorites with total of 192 and they are 9-19 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite. Milwaukee is far from solid sports betting wager with 2-8-1 ATS mark as playoff underdogs.

TNT has this Eastern conflict at 8:00 Eastern and the Hawks are 16-6 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Rocky Mountain tall problems for Denver

The Nuggets are touchy-feely content after a day to recant their feelings about losing Game 4 and falling to 3-1 deficit against Utah. Carmelo Anthony said he was misunderstood when he was quoted as saying he couldn’t beat Utah by himself. J.R. Smith, the ultimate team player (?), tweeted his teammates are being selfish and interim coach Adrian Dantley wondered aloud how a player could score 39 points and still commit nine turnovers, like Carmelo did in last contest.

Yup, the Nuggets are now just one big happy family as they prepare for Game 5 at home. “A lot of people took what I said when I said I needed help the wrong way. But I talked to my teammates. They know what I meant,” Anthony said after Tuesday’s practice. “We talk basketball every day, so they know I’m not pointing nobody out individually.

“I’m not saying I’m playing the best I can play. I’m in there with them. We’re all losing together.”

Denver is losing on the defensive end, conceding 112.2 points a contest to the Jazz, who are shooting over 50 percent for the series. The Nuggets players should be dressed as matadors, since they let Utah players by them while holding their plastic swords. Somebody on this team needs to take the role of leadership and get his team fired up. If so, Denver improves on 26-11 ATS record at home after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.

While the Nuggets might need a team meeting with Dr. Phil, Utah is relishing its opportunity and focused on the task at hand. Deron Williams was asked about the frustrations Denver is feeling, “Let’s worry about us. Whatever they say is what they say. We’re just worried about winning this next game and closing the series out.” he said.

The Jazz are 12-2 ATS after a contest where both teams scored 105 points or more this season and Carlos Boozer won’t have any talk about what a great spot his team is in. “We’re not going to fall into the trap of thinking that we’ve won the series. We haven’t. We have a lead in the series. We haven’t won anything.” - The former Duke star stated.

Denver is a seven-point favorite and is 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. With the total at 215, the Nuggets have to play better defense and are 21-7 UNDER in the first round of the postseason. Utah is 20-7 ATS when playing only their second game in five days and is 7-1 OVER in last eight visits to the Mile High City. This true Western shootout begins right after the Bucks and Hawks.

NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

Saturday Special's

The last three posts we are 9-1, let’s line them up for Saturday and see how we do. We have NBA system in Brew Town today at 30-6 ATS. Top Trend flat dead perfect and Steve of the LCC goes after yet another MLB Free winner. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Everyone assumed the NFL teams know what they are doing when it comes to drafting, they don’t. Plenty of teams make lots of mistakes. Jacksonville’s first pick was a reach and many others were questionable.

Personally I hope Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow go on to have long NFL careers, proving all the nay-sayers wrong.

Baltimore picking Mount (blob) Cody could turn out to be a steal. He fits their defense and if he decides to mature and drop 50 lbs., could be play-yer.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against teams like the Bucks when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team, 43.5-45.5 percent allowed, against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games permitting a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis is 11-0 in road night games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection sees Tampa Bay bouncing back from upset loss.

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NBA homers have to come thru

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.
Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

NBA Eastern Conference Series Outlook

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

3DW Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4) Boston vs (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

Friday's Top Material

On Wednesday we came up a bit short with 1-2 record and will look to return to the winning side of the ledger. The Top Trend follows Milwaukee who is heading towards historic ATS record, already with 50 covers. Sal returns on a nice run in the NBA and lends us his Top Free Play. Friday’s Best System is 80.9 percent, including 10-1 ATS this campaign.

What I thought yesterday- I wish I had more time to watch 30 Rock, I really like that show when I get a chance to see it. Any others I should be looking for outside the sports realm?

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Utah, outscoring their opponents by three points or more a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system recently crossed the 80 percent threshold with 38-9 ATS record, thanks to 10-1 mark this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Milwaukee Bucks are 20-5 ATS after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games this season, winning by 6.9 points per contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal hits a good stretch in the NBA at 6-1 and likes Portland as his best bet tonight in the NBA.

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Betting Beliefs – Always or Never

The NBA and NHL seasons are rapidly coming to a close and Major League Baseball is heading into its first full weekend. Here are some hard, fast betting rules to live by. You are not going to win every time, but your bankroll with be much thicker or have larger figures than if you decided to go the other way.

ALWAYS bet against “turrible” NBA teams late in the season

Charles Barkley may have different ways of utilizing words in the English language, but Sir Charles knows a “turrible” team when he sees one. Bettors looked at the New Jersey Nets recently after they overcame the dubious NBA record for losses and even covered six games in a row. More than one bettor has been sent down the wrong path betting a team with 11 wins and being outscored by 9.3 points per game.

If it looks like dog poop, smells like dog poop, it probably is dog poop. Don’t forget to add Detroit, Minnesota and the Clippers to this list, since most of the players and coaches have already prepaid their airline luggage charges for out of town on the day the regular season ends.

ALWAYS bet on NBA teams that are streaking and playoff bound

If teams are playing solid basketball, winning and moving up the standings plus covering spreads, it makes sense to at the very least consider them on game by game basis.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS since March 1. During that same time span it’s been the flight of the Phoenix in the desert, with the Suns 14-3, 10-6-1 ATS.

So much for injuries, age and nasty schedule supposedly to derail San Antonio. The Spurs are 15-5 and 14-6 ATS; with Tony Parker missing 75 percent of these games and Tim Duncan getting days off to rest weary knees. Follow the words of Grammy award winner Jerry Reed from his early 70’s hit “When you’re, you’re hot”.

NEVER bet out of boredom

If you have been betting college and professional basketball on a daily basis since early November, looking at a skimpy NBA schedule leaves much to be desired if you do not wager on baseball or want to survey the landscape first. I’ve received a couple of email from guys, “Who do you like in the NHL tonight?” or “Got any hot ones in hockey?”

If you haven’t been following hockey all season, now is not the time to start. Though every game looks like a 50-50 proposition, rest assured you are much more likely to lose than to win just guessing. Advice- play the lottery, payouts are larger, if not your odds.

ALWAYS bet underdogs in NHL series wagering

The first round of the Stanley Cup rivals anything NCAA men’s basketball tournament has to offer. In the past four years, over 37 percent of the lower seeds (12 of 32) have advanced to the conference semi-finals. In addition, three other series went the full seven games, which could have provided even more fuel to this argument. Look for hot goaltender and teams with two or three snipers as underdog wagers.

NEVER bet on -151 or more early April favorites in baseball

The baseball in April is a real crapshoot as unsuspecting teams get off to fast starts and perennial powers haven’t put everything together yet. On April 25 last season, here are the records of various MLB teams.

Toronto 13-6
Seattle 12-6
N.Y. Yankees 9-8
L.A. Angels 6-11
Florida 11-6
Philadelphia 8-8
Colorado 5-11

Last season was fairly typical of what occurs. Favorites of -151 or higher were 33-21 (61.1 percent), but were -2.84 units overall the first two weeks of the season.

NEVER bet on “up and comers” early without pedigree

This is tried and true formula in any sport. Ole Miss (8-4, 6-5 ATS regular season) and California (8-5, 6-7 ATS) were ranked in the Top 15 in preseason polls in college football last season, Georgia Tech (No. 17 in preseason polls) in college hoops this past campaign and what about Miami (7-9 8-8 ATS) and Houston (9-7, 7-8-1 ATS) in the NFL listed as likely playoff teams.

Typically a team needs to prove themselves or they come out of nowhere to be a surprise squad is how it usually happens.

Be careful with the Seattle Mariners and even the San Francisco Giants, until they show they can win consistently to be counted as “play on” teams.

NEVER bet against Pamela Anderson

Though the blonde bombshell is adding up in years and might be 20-1 to win Dancing with the Stars, she always finds a way to get herself in the news or on TV.

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

NBA scheduling affects playoff picture

Roughly three weeks remain in the NBA regular season and sports bettors are racking their brains trying to come up with the right answers to pick winners. The playoff chase is in high gear and many teams are scrambling for better positions or are trying to round their game into top form.

Among the many factors a NBA bettor has to take into consideration is scheduling, especially at crunch time late in the season. Every day this time of the season, nearly half the games do not have an overnight line due to one injury or another from a myriad of teams and if they are forced to play back to-back games or three in four days with travel involved, determining a winner is just that much more complicated.

While one is left to ponder these unfriendly conditions, here is what the schedule looks like for many of the contenders in each conference.

Western Conference Shoot-out

At least mathematically, 10 teams in the West still have a chance to secure a playoff spot and as this article was posted, each of them have a winning record in their previous 10 outings, proving what is at stake for all of them.

Unless the Los Angeles Lakers come down with an epidemic, they are fairly secure to wrap up the top slot out West. The second position is like the smog in L.A., not quite as clear. Denver and Dallas are going toe to toe, trying not only to keep teams from hunting them down in their own divisions, but seeking the higher seed should they meet possibly in the West semi-finals with crucial home court advantage at stake.

Both teams have seven road games left and the Mavericks have the edge in that department with 22-12 mark and brilliant 21-13 ATS record as visitors. Besides their exceptional road radiance, Dallas will be either favored or a short underdog in five of those contests.

Denver on the other hand is .500 on the road and 15-16-3 ATS in traveling uniforms. This week they open a five game road trip, visiting rugged outposts like Boston, Orlando and finishing up in Big D, possibly a real deciding matchup. The Nuggets also have a demanding close to the year- @Oklahoma City, home to the Lakers, San Antonio and Memphis and @Phoenix.

Positions four-thru eight will be not only challenge each West contender, but the wits of those putting down the cash to bet the correct side. Three teams in particular will have to literally take it one game at a time and will not have much time to do so. San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston all have a heavy workload with 14 games in just over three weeks. The Thunder have the most games on their own floor with eight and is 22-11 and 18-15 ATS, winning by 5.7 points per contest at the Ford Center. OKC will have to earn their postseason spot even at home, facing all contenders except for Minnesota on Apr. 4.

The Spurs have been scorching the last few weeks even without Tony Parker in the lineup. George Hill has proven his value at the point guard and they will need him and the other veterans like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to overcome a hellacious close to the year. The eight road games is hard enough (16-16, 14-18 ATS) at places like Boston, the Lakers, Phoenix, Denver and Dallas. But even when they are back home, Kobe and company pays a visit as does Cleveland and Orlando. If San Antonio doesn’t slip to eighth seed, it would appear to be a miracle, even with how well they have been executing.

Houston looks like a longshot to make the playoffs, down four games in the loss column to Portland and having eight remaining road games, all in groups of two or three. The Rockets are 8-14 as road dogs (10-12 ATS) and need a 11-3 close to even give themselves a chance.

Utah and Phoenix have both been playing solid basketball for some time and are seeking the all important first round home series as a fourth seed. The Suns have the more arduous journey with eight road games in final 12 contests, which includes a five-game trip mostly thru the Midwest. Steve Nash and the gang should at least show a profit as visitors, as they are 19-14 away from the desert, losing by less than a point a game (-0.8).

Utah’s slate is similar to the Suns, with one less roadie and one more in Salt Lake City. The Jazz travels should include being a road favorite in at least five of their stops and they will be favored in all five contests at EnergySolutions Arena.

Eastern Conference battle and positioning

The Boston Celtics have endured a great deal of criticism this season. This team is loaded with veterans, some believe a little too old. The C’s haven’t shown a great deal of heart or are just lacking in talent against the upper echelon clubs since the calendar turned to 2010. From wagering perspective their home record is their most disconcerting aspect at 21-12 and abysmal 10-22-1 spread mark. Eight of their final 13 contests are at TD Banknorth Garden and the Celtics better take advantage or they could fall to fourth seed, which would mean facing Cleveland in East semis.

Barring injuries or an unforeseen major collapse, the Milwaukee Bucks are going to back to the playoffs. The Milwaukee front office deserves a great deal of credit, adding veterans with young players to have this club in the fifth slot in the East, thanks to 14-3 sprint since Feb.19, with 12-3-2 ATS mark. The Bucks can generate further momentum by playing nine of their final 14 games at the Bradley Center where they are 23-9 and 20-11-1 ATS.
The Chicago Bulls still have a chance, but they have fallen out of favor with their 1-10 slide like Sandra Bullock’s husband. That leaves three teams fighting to avoid first round matchup with LeBron James and the fellas.

Miami, Charlotte and Toronto are bunched like bananas and the Bobcats should have the edge. Charlotte has the most remaining home games, eight of last 13, where they are 25-8 and 19-14 ATS. At present, only two of those contests will be against teams with winning records.

The Raptors are playing the poorest of the trio and are equal parts home and away for their remaining conflicts. Toronto could well be saddled with facing Cleveland, because they are the worst defensive team in points surrendered in the East.

The Heat’s biggest strength down the stretch is Dwayne Wade. Miami has eight road games left on their plate (only five at home), which sounds daunting until you take a closer look. Of those, only Milwaukee has a winning record. That leaves it up to Heat players to take grab the proverbial bull by the horns and finish sixth, thus missing the Cavs and Orlando in the opening round of the postseason. Miami is 15-18 on the road with 17-16 ATS record.

This is a great time for all NBA bettors to take stock of each contending team’s situation and think in advance how they season may play out when it comes to the schedule.

Brackets Announced Today

On Friday we posted a 2-1 day and today the choices are much thinner. We have a NBA system that is 88.5 percent, but tough to swallow. The Big Ten title game has quite an angle and the LCC has a unanimous pick in the A-10. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- This has been a wild ride for me the last few days betting conference tournaments with 4-5, 4-7 and 7-1 days.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites like Milwaukee who are + or (-) three points per game differential, against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less. Though the Bucks seem like obvious play, this 23-3 ATS system takes me off the game.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The favorite in Ohio State and Minnesota matchup is 8-0 ATS.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection is 100 percent (7-0) behind Temple to win and cover.

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All Systems go for NBA Monday

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up their four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington

Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.

Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York

The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.

Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.

Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS.

Bound for Glory Tuesday

After a couple of desultory days, got back to work with 3-0 Monday. For Tuesday have a sharp Top Trend in the NBA out West. Paul Buck is heating up in the NBA and has what he hopes is another winner for you today. Top quality systems are scarce today, however found one that is good just not up to out 80 percent standards. Good Luck

What I found today – Dallas opened as eight-point favorites against Milwaukee; however several sportsbooks have dropped the Mavs to 6.5-point faves with their 5-15 ATS home record. NBA bettors also haven’t been to keen on Warriors and Kings 221 total in Sacramento and most reporting stations have this one falling to 219.5.

Minnesota is off gut-wrenching one-point loss to Michigan State, nevertheless with its tremendous defense and long history of success at “The Barn”, the action has been on the Golden Gophers taking them from 10-point home favorites to 12 or 12.5.

In the ACC, the Miami and Maryland matchup has drawn the attention of total players, taking this one from opening 153.5 to 156 by afternoon to those East of the Mississippi River. Just the opposite of West Virginia at DePaul, as college hoops aficionados wonder who will score for the Blue Demons behind Will Walker, dropping the total from 126 to 122.5 at a few wagering outlets.

On the ice, despite losing four of last five, the Red Wings are a public betting favorite and have gone from -160 to -175 on the money, getting ready to host Phoenix. Maybe having won seven straight at “The Joe” over the Coyotes is influencing backers.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Ball State where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. This decent system is 57-20 ATS, 74 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Golden State is 2-12 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest, losing by 12.7 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck had a winner last night and has won eight of his last 10 NBA plays and likes Milwaukee to cover the seven at Dallas.

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Monday NBA Systems

Five contests on the NBA docket to start the week leading up to Christmas holiday. Utah and Orlando and Cleveland at Phoenix will generate the most buzz, with each having a twist that sets them apart. The other three conflicts all have unique systems worth considering on sides or totals.

Milwaukee at Indiana (-2, 202.5)

After a fast start (8-3) giving Bucks fans hope about the future, Milwaukee has lost 11 of 14. This sets up potential totals play, as road teams that have lost four or five of their last six contests and sporting a win percentage of 40-49 percent, look to be OVER play when the total is 200 to 209.5 and facing a team with win percentage of 25 to 40 percent. (16-3 L3Y)

Utah at Orlando (-8, 204)

The Jazz have won two of three on their five-game road trip before Christmas. Orlando rebounded, literally, from a loss to Miami and bested Portland 92-83 as nine-point favorites. In that contest the Magic cleaned up on the glass with 64-43 edge and favorites that have a +3 or better rebounding edge on the season and off a game where they out-boarded the opposition by 15 or more, are 74-36 ATS in next contest since 2007.

Sacramento at Chicago (-4, 200.5)

The Bulls have been big disappointment this season with 10-15 record and even worse against the spread at 8-15-2 ATS. Chicago has managed to cover three in a row; however their luck might run out tonight. The Bulls escaped with 101-98 overtime win against Atlanta Saturday night and home squads being outscored by six or more points a game, after a close win by three points or less, are 20-57 ATS since 1996.

L.A. Clippers at San Antonio (-8.5, 193.5)

The Clippers have shown general improvement thus far at 12-14 and are in the midst of a six-game road trip. They won their last outing in Philadelphia 112-107 in OT and face a San Antonio club that has been scoring, averaging 107.3 points per game. Tonight watch the total, since it is best to play OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after a team like the Clippers allowed 105 points or more, against opponent after they’ve scored 100 points or more five straight games. (40-12 L13Y)

Cleveland at Phoenix (-2, 209.5)

The “Shaq-tus” makes his return to the desert, to face Phoenix who has yet to lose at home with 10-0 record (6-3-1 ATS). The Suns are off a 26-point walloping of Washington and teams that score 102 or more points a night, off a win by 15 or more, against an opponent that scores between 98-102 points per game, are 30-7 ATS if the line is +3 to -3.

NBA Monday System Watch

It’s the start of another week in the NBA with only three games on the menu. Each contest has a valuable system that that can help shape a potential wager or change one’s minded to open up other possibilities. In any event, here are the Top NBA systems for a Monday night of action.

Charlotte at Orlando (-11.5, 178)

The Orlando Magic (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will have the services of Rashard Lewis once again, whose been sitting out a 10-game suspension after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level. The Magic continued New Jersey’s woes this past Friday with 88-82 victory, while Charlotte (3-6, 5-4 ATS) offensive funk continued with 80-74 loss against Portland Saturday.

This sets up potential OVER play, since teams like Orlando after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, and facing opponent who tallied 35 points or less in the first half of last game are 44-16, 73.3 percent the last five years.

Portland at Atlanta (-4, 189)

The Trailblazers (8-3 SU&ATS) and the Hawks (8-2, 9-1 ATS) are two of the best teams in the early going of the NBA season and having backers build significant bankrolls in the early going with a combined 17-4 spread record.

Something will have to give tonight as Atlanta has won and covered four in a row and Portland is on even better streak at six straight in the two categories. Sportsbook.com has the Hawks as home favorites and that might be correct, as road teams having four or more consecutive wins, playing their third road game in four days are 16-38 ATS, 27 percent in next outing since 2005.

Dallas at Milwaukee (-1.5, 190.5)

Michael Redd better get healthy quick or he might turn into Wally Pipp. (Google it) Rookie Brandon Jennings set a Milwaukee franchise record with 55 points Saturday night in 129-125 win over Golden State (previous rookie record mark of 51 set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - then known as Lew Alcindor), in just his eighth game. Redd has been out since the second game of the season for the Bucks (5-2 SU&ATS) with a knee injury and Milwaukee has won four consecutively.

Dallas (7-3 SU&ATS) is 2-1 on the last stop of a four-game road trip, which included 95-90 win yesterday at Detroit as 4.5-point favorites. This will be the Mavericks fifth contest in a week, yet the situation favors them. In November, teams playing that many games in seven days, with a line are +3 to -3, are 17-4 ATS the last three years.

Happy Veteran's Day - We Thank You

WOW, we’re getting hammered pretty good right now, it happens. We have a hot CFB bettor who has a Free Play on tonight’s contest. Also have an 80 percent system in the NBA on an underdog. No fabulous angles today but have one for Saturday that is worth mentioning. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I learned yesterday – Tim Thomas made 27 saves to backstop the Bruins to a 3-0 win over the Penguins. It was the first time that Boston shut out the defending Stanley Cup champion since Jan. 14, 1993, when the Bruins routed Pittsburgh, 7-0, at Boston Garden. The Bruins' goaltender that night was John Blue, playing only his fourth NHL game. It was the first, and, as it turned out, only shutout of Blue's three-year NHL career.

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Milwaukee, after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system has produced winners 28 ATS of the last 35 times it has come up in the last five seasons.

Free Football Trend-2) A ton of contradictory trends going both ways in several games today, so let’s look at Saturday. The Baylor Bears are 2-14 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 37 or more points a game, losing by almost 35 per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit nine of last 10 CFB plays and is on Central Mich. tonight.

The Platinum Sheet has person hitting 66 percent on CFB Best Bets.

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A very sleepy Monday

A much needed comeback for a 2-1 day keeps everything moving in the right direction. A slow sports day again, however baseball is on the horizon. The Milwaukee Bucks have disappeared faster than an Oklahoma Sooners three point shot. Check out today’s Top Trend to see chances tonight. The Best System involves tonight’s only college hoops game and is 82.3 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) In college basketball, PLAY AGAINST road teams where the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This system is 14-3 ATS since the beginning of 2006 season and would mean to go against UTEP tonight.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Milwaukee Bucks are 1-11 ATS this month.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall goes for two in a row and takes New Jersey.

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Lesson Learned and Top Plays

Yesterday a member of the LCC unloaded on Milwaukee as I reported here for Free Pick. While I was out last night, this person called me about an hour before game time. I had never spoken to this individual and he explained who he was. He informed me once hearing about the Bulls trade, he made the decision to forgo this Bucks as a huge play and wagered the same amount of money on Chicago to counter all his previous wagers. He explained that teams on the road in this situation are often a great bet, since the remaining players pull together, especially on the road.

I asked him how he could eat all the juice, since it was a substantial amount and he told me as a professional bettor, it was better to buy out of what is bad investment than just sit and sustain a potential loss on principle. I asked him why he called and he said he saw the blog and also my email to people that had signed up and wanted me to follow his lead. I understood his position, but was not going to change my wager, since I had enough faith in other plays to break even if I lost on Milwaukee.

It turns out he made a wise play and showed me a lesson about why he does what he does and I do what I do.

Ho-Hum another 2-1 day. (Yea right) The Top Trend was a winner and today one of the teams that has a distinct home court advantage is in an extremely favorable angle. After nailing another system winner, we have one that is 82.1 percent in college basketball. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Middle Tennessee State, favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, off two straight losses against conference rivals, versus opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival. This spiffy system is 23-5 ATS since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Denver Pioneers are 10-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection is 18-9 in their last 27 consensus plays in college basketball (which you can receive for Free while they stay hot by joining mailing list on the upper right) and Appalachian State is one of their two offerings this evening.

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Interesting Wednesday at 3DW

I’ll take another 2 out 3 day and if the guys from the LCC start hitting a few more Free Plays, we’ll really get on a roll. One individual is going HUGE on a NBA game tonight and I’m supporting him all the way. Today’s Top Trend involves the best team in the NBA in a perfect situation. If you like underdogs, we have a system in college hoops that an 82.1 winner, which you should enjoy. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like N.C. State of 10 to 19.5 points, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent off two straight wins within the league. Over the last 11 seasons, this system is 32-7 ATS. 82.1 percent, adding three more winners this year without a loss.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Los Angeles Lakers are 10-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams, allowing shooting percentage defense of 46 percent or worse, in the second half of the season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) A member of the Left Coast Connection made a max bet at every location he could on the Milwaukee Bucks at +2, +1.5 or money line. The dude has to have “onions” and I hope he wins.

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Doug's Thoughts from The Angry Chair

It was extraordinarily peculiar to see four wild card road teams open up as favorites last week and all but Atlanta held, with a deluge of money coming late on Arizona which saw them close as -2 home favorites at most wagering outlets. What struck me was the Indianapolis Colts and their performance in losing to San Diego in overtime.

To a large degree, Indianapolis was a fraud of a team even manufacturing a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season. They started slowing with Peyton Manning coming back from medical procedures, not having him mentally or physically ready to start the season. They had Christmas well before Dec. 25, as Minnesota and Houston gave away certain victories with fool-hardy play.

Of the 12 wins the Colts managed, they were hardly dominating, winning eight by a touchdown or less. During the broadcast of the wild card game, it was brought up Tony Dungy has taken the Colts to seven straight playoffs in his seven seasons in Indianapolis. No question that is a notable accomplishment, but has it REALLY been that successful a run? Dungy inherited a quarterback who has become a three-time MVP, which made his job a lot easier, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, he’s had potential Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Jeff Saturday and very good players like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. I’m not suggesting Dungy is a bad coach, nonetheless has he and his teams reached their potential?

In four of his seven playoff appearances, it has been one and done for the Colts, three times as favorites, like last Saturday. If you remember, the reason he was asked to leave Tampa Bay wasn’t because he was terrible person, rather the failures losing in the very first playoff game three years in a row from 1999-2001. Maybe the Buccaneers weren’t ready to win, yet the coincidence of them winning the Super Bowl the next year after he left is striking.

Contrast that with Andy Reid, who has a like/hate relationship in Philadelphia (who doesn’t for that matter). Reid makes little effort to be likeable and has seen his share of family issues on the front page of untold newspapers. Yet, with last week’s win at Minnesota, the Eagles have won seven straight (5-2 ATS) first games in the postseason.

Dungy does have a Super Bowl winners ring and Reid doesn’t as a head coach, but purely in the football sense, especially for a sports bettors like you and me, I’d rather have Reid coaching on my nickel than Dungy, who has lost first playoff game seven of 11 times as head coach.

Spoke to a noted college basketball handicapper back in December and me mentioned the Big East as conference that could produce a number of upsets. Much like the mythical beast “Hydra”, the Big East is a multi-headed monster, with nine teams in the Top 25 this week. In Greek mythology stories of Hydra, you cut off one of the heads of the beast and another appears, which is what is likely to happen in the Big East all season. Thus far favorites are 11-2 and 8-5 ATS in conference play; however the grueling affects of this league will surely have more underdog winners in the coming weeks.

I have to admit I haven’t looked at Oklahoma City much concerning betting, since I’m not a big supporter of wagering on teams that have no chance to win. Seeing the loud rumbling noise accompanying a lighting discharge (thunder) squad has the worst scoring margin record in the NBA at -8.0 points per game, I can’t lay down the cash on OKC very often. I was mildly surprised to learn after being bowl games intensive the last few weeks (making a few NBA wagers here and there) Oklahoma City was 21-13-1 ATS, however I wasn’t stunned considering how many points they typically receive.

One team that has me befuddled is the leader in making money in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. Having lived in the land of brats and beer for years (only place I’ve ever heard of having a regional neighborhood called “Piggsville” and not have negative connotation), I’ve always had a soft spot for Bucks. Milwaukee is mere 17-19, with heart-thumping 24-11-1 ATS record. What I find most intriguing about the Bucks spread record is nearly half (9) of their losses have been by 10 or more points. Take away those games against the spread in which they are 2-7 ATS, that means in the rest of all of the games Milwaukee has played, they are 22-4-1 against the spread which is remarkable. From the handicapping perspective, right now, if Milwaukee looks like they might get whipped, either play against them or pass, otherwise, they are definite Play On team. (This last paragraph made Fox's Ben Maller's NBA rumor page)