Today we a superb system at 86.7 percent that gives out two plays for a change. The Top Trend involves one of the best teams in the country and how they perform in a given situation at this point of the season. In addition we have picks for both of today’s NFL playoff games. Good Luck
What I thought today - A lot of people I know are on Baltimore today, here's my question, does it makes sense to back a team on short rest playing their fourth consecutive road game?
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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Today this means to play against Bradley and Manhattan for a system that is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent.
Free Basketball Trend-2) Kansas is 14-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
Free Football Pick -3) The LCC members majority is on New Orleans and Indianapolis to cover today.
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Showing posts with label Baltimore Ravens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baltimore Ravens. Show all posts
Ravens at Colts Preview
The AFC’s #1 seed is in action on Saturday evening, and hoping to snap out of a losing funk. The Colts won their first 14 games before losing the final two amidst a controversy of deciding to rest starters. While most players and coaches agree Indianapolis head man Jim Caldwell did the right thing in looking at the broader view of trying to get to another Super Bowl, he has left himself wide open for criticism if they would falter against Baltimore.Defensively, Peyton Manning and Colts know the Ravens first order of business is to take away the run, which is not a big deal for them since they only average 81 yards per game on the ground anyway. This Indianapolis team can’t abandon the run entirely, seeking to keep average of around 23 carries per game. Where the offensive line really has to perform is in the passing game, protecting Manning against the blitzes he will face. They will have no excuse after the way Baltimore started at New England, slugging them in the mouth and the Patriots not responding. The Colts won 14 games, had 10-6 ATS mark and should know exactly what to do.
The Ravens (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) didn’t lose seven games by accident, they have very definable weaknesses. The Colts figure to attack Baltimore on the perimeter, since their corners are not strong at keeping coverage, particularly on deeper patterns where they have to turn and run with receivers. Indy will experiment in the first quarter with Dallas Clark. If Baltimore decides to utilize Ed Reed in more single coverage on Clark, that opens the rest of the field for Manning to attack their greatest deficiency. If instead they let linebackers and a strong safety try and guard Clark, he’s too much of mismatch, which the Colts can exploit.
The Indianapolis defense cannot let Baltimore dictate tempo. Coach John Harbaugh has determined the best way for his team to win and it is as basic as it gets, blocking and tackling. If the Ravens three-headed running monster is in second or third and short continually, Baltimore sends Indy packing in first playoff game for the four time in five years and raises postseason mark to 9-3 SU and ATS. The blue-clad Colts are 13-5 and ugly 6-12 ATS in last 18 home assignments.
Baltimore can pull the upset, but they must stay in character and hit a few big plays. The Ravens have lost seven straight to Indianapolis, covering the spread only once, which included Nov. 22, 17-15 defeat as one-point home underdog. The Birds have manufactured just 11.6 points per game against Indy’s defense in this stretch. That means Joe Flacco has to hit deep passes or Ray Rice has to bust a long run or two. If Baltimore offensive can set the tempo, they move to 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in two straight times.
Bookmaker.com has the Ravens catching 6.5-points with total of 44. For many bettors Baltimore looks to be the play, given their strong defense and tough-minded attitude. While those are admirable qualities, remember teams that won as road underdogs in the Wild Card round are 3-8 ATS in next outing. Similar to Arizona, Ray Lewis’ squad had just six days off and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. When does the well run dry?
Lewis and the defense will have to be lucky and good. They will have to disguise coverage’s and hopefully make Manning a bit anxious, blitzing on early downs and keeping eight men in coverage on passing downs. Baltimore is 13-2 ATS when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards and 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.
In the teams last eight meetings when the total is in the 40’s, the UNDER is 6-2.
Ravens at Patriots Betting Matchup
The Baltimore Ravens, off a pair of playoffs wins a year ago, head into New England believing they can at least match that total. The Ravens are not concerned about New England being 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS) in home playoff games during the Tom Brady era. They view this as opportunity because of advantages they see for themselves.Start with Baltimore was fifth in rushing at 137.9 yards per game and the Patriots were a pedestrian 23rd in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have both gotten hot and New England has been forced to “junk-up” its defense to increase productivity in recent weeks with mixed results.
Though the Ravens secondary finished eighth in passing defense, their cornerbacks are beatable. Fortunately for them, they will have one less weapon to deal with in Wes Welker, done for the season. That means the Baltimore can focus their attention on Randy Moss. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in road playoff games.
New England is in the postseason again after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years, though not the team of prior seasons. The Patriots were perfect at Gillette Stadium this season (5-3 ATS), which included a hard-fought 27-21 win in Week 4 over Baltimore.
With Welker out, the underneath role falls to rookie Julian Edelman to be the slot receiver. Though Edelman has been productive when called upon this season, he lacks the skill and savvy of Welker. Having played quarterback in college, he doesn’t have the experience to find seams and read coverage’s as well. Expect the New England game plan to include screens to running backs and more throws to the tight ends to make up for Welker’s loss. The Pats are 23-5 ATS playing against a marginal winning team (51 to 60 win percentage).
Bill Belicheck’s defense gave up 144 yards rushing to Houston last week, but run stoppers Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren had the week off and should be refresher. In the last five weeks, the Patriots have been generating a better pass rush off the edges; particularly from LB Tully Banta-Cain. Derrick Burgess had a good game last week for the Pats; expect to see more of him since Joe Flacco is not always quick to feel the pressure from the perimeter.
DiamondSportsbook.com has the Brady Bunch as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 43.5. The Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS following a SU loss and are is 17-6 UNDER in playoff games. Achieving a semblance of offensive balance will be crucial and quick hitting plays running off-tackle.
Baltimore is 21-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game and the offensive line has been mowing down the opposition to the tune of 211.7 yards the last month. If they move the pile on New England, they can exploit an untrustworthy New England secondary. With journeyman Leigh Bodden their best cover guy, even an ordinary pass-catching contingent like the Ravens can do damage.
The Birds are 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of seven points or less.
NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff
This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.Playoff Picture
The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.
The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.
Real Life or Football
Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.
Week 17 Angles
* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.
Killer NFL Systems
*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.
Super Duper Trends
*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.
Slippery Slope Situations
*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.
*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)
*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.
*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.
Week 16 NFL Previews
On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver’s in a tough spot at Philly and can’t afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS
For the Bengals, it’s time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second’s loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry’s funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis’ team won’t get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.
Keys to the Game-
Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don’t give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel’s completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn’t lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.
With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.
3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -13.5, 39.5
Carolina at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX
Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.
Keys to the Game-
Coach Fox’s backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.
Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he’s fearless in trying to thread the needle; he’ll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.
3DW Line – Giants by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -8, 42.5
Jacksonville at New England 1:00E CBS
New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.
Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.
Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.
3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44
New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.
Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.
Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.
3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44
Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS
After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.
Keys to the Game –
Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.
The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.
3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43
After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.
Keys to the Game –
Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.
The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.
3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43
Denver at Philadelphia 4:15E CBS
After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.
Keys to the Game-
Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.
The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.
3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.
Keys to the Game-
Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.
The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.
3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
Unreal NFL Sunday Info
Overall a respectable 3-2 day with our system plays a perfect 2-0. Today we have one of the very best systems we have had all year in the NFL at 25-2 ATS. The Top Trend is 100 percent over an extended period of time and Paul Buck looks to continue his latest hot streak. Good Luck
What I know today – Teams that have negative turnover margin of -3 or worse are 13-2-1 ATS in next game the last eight weeks in the NFL. This week that would be Miami, St. Louis, New England, Arizona and the Giants tomorrow night.
On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners
Free Football System -1) Play On home teams like Detroit after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games with a winning percentage of 25 percent or less, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This system is Holy S _ _ _ 25-2 ATS, 92.6 percent since 1999.
Free Football Trend-2) The Baltimore Ravens are 17-0 ATS at home off a non-conference contest.
Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is 17-4 the last five days and has Kansas City as his top play.
Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order StatFox Edge Bowl guide, you will thank me.
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Week 15 in the NFL
It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX
In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.
Keys to the Game-
Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.
The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.
3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41
Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS
Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.
Keys to the Game-
Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.
Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.
3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43
Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX
Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.
Keys to the Game-
San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.
Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.
3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39
Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS
Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.
Keys to the Game –
It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.
Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.
3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5
Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX
Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.
Keys to the Game-
Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.
Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?
3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
Baltimore at Green Bay Monday night matchup
Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.
The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.
For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.
This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.
The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 42.5, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.
Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens’ coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.
Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.
Monday Night System – Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)
Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.
NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11
Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS
After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.
Keys to the Game-
This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.
The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.
3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX
New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.
Keys to the Game-
Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.
With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.
3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46
Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX
Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.
Keys to the Game-
This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.
Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.
3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5
N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS
The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.
Keys to the Game –
Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.
Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent
3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45
San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS
For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.
Keys to the Game-
It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.
In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.
3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
The Cleveland Browns are so ugly......
Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns’ quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.
Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.
The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Mangini’s players think he’s more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the “Sopranos”, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.
The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team “Egypt”, because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)
DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as 11-point favorites with total of 39. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.
The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.
Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.
Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.
Monday Night System – Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)
Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.
Week 8 NFL Options
The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn’t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It’s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it’s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX
If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week’s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.
Keys to the Game-
The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he’s as off-target as he’s been the last two weeks, it’s usually because he strays from fundamentals.
At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn’t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won’t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won’t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.
3DWLine – Philadelphia by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Giants -1, 44.5
St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX
The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that’s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)
Keys to the Game-
Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he’s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that’s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.
Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.
3DWLine – Detroit by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Detroit -4, 43.5
Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS
Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.
Keys to the Game-
How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.
Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.
3DWLine – Baltimore by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -3.5, 41.5
Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS
It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan’s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)
Keys to the Game –
This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he’s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.
This will be Henne’s first road start and Ryan’s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.
3DWLine – Jets by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5
Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX
It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre’s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It’s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau’s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.
Keys to the Game-
If Brett Favre said he’s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny’s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.
Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4’s jersey starting in the first quarter.
3DW Line – Green Bay by 6
DiammondSportsbook.com Line – Green Bay -3, 47
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
Upon further review in the NFL
The New Orleans Saints have cemented who is the best team in the NFC and possibly in the NFL is the middle of October. The Saints look a lot different than when started 5-1 in 2006, coach Sean Payton’s first year. That team was coming off 3-13 season and caught the league by surprise with their new quarterback Drew Brees. The former San Diego signal caller had a HUGE chip his shoulder after being no longer wanted in San Diego.Payton was like a new teacher out of college, full of ideas and idealism and wanted to let the world know he was an offensive guru. New Orleans went to the NFC championship before losing to Chicago. The following two seasons are what most people would have expected from the Saints at 7-9 and 8-8.
Starting back in August, this New Orleans team had a different look. They destroyed teams in the preseason and it continued right in the regular season. After blowing away the Giants 49-27, this club has a killer look. Yes, the Giants were playing subs in the secondary, but they turned off New York’s pass rush and went after their greatest weakness.
The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS not just because of Brees, but because they have the No.9 defense and are fourth in rushing yardage. Brees and Payton have both grown up and so has New Orleans.
Baltimore made a spectacular comeback against Minnesota and should have won the game, but at least they covered the three for those on that side. While that was great news for Baltimore backers, a number of disturbing elements came out of that contest for the Ravens. After losing two consecutive games, Baltimore was flatter than a smashed crab cake and Minnesota jumped all over them 14-0. The Ravens secondary is well below average even with Ed Reed. While a NFL kicker should be expected to make a 44-yard field goal, once again, another team decides to go into a shell once there in range, instead of trying to get closer for an even shorter field goal attempt.
Could Philadelphia have looked any worse in losing to Oakland? For all the supposed genius of Andy Reid, how do you run 14 times against a Raiders defense that had allowed 182 yards rushing per game in previous four contests, especially in a close contest? DT Richard Seymour absolutely destroyed the Eagles offensive line by himself.
Remember all those big smiles and grins coach Rex Ryan had after 3-0 start. Those have been replaced by frowns with the Jets 3-3. His rookie Mark Sanchez took a step backwards in overtime loss to Buffalo, throwing five picks. Ryan’s mistake was placing too much faith in Sanchez. Every young quarterback is going to have ups and downs, which is why Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were successful as first year quarterbacks; they were kept on short leach.
Green Bay won 26-0 over Detroit and made a few defensive adjustments like having Aaron Kampman rush the passer more and blitzing LB Clay Mathews, as both have a knack for creating pressure. What is still disturbing is Rodgers being sacked four times.
There is no other way to describe it, Tennessee quit on coach Jeff Fisher in 59-0 shellacking in snow-laden New England. Though Fisher prior to this season has gotten more out of available talent than any NFL coach, it seems his message after 14 years is ringing hallow. This might be a great opportunity for him to step away, do some broadcasting work and get batteries recharged for another opportunity.
Heard on the radio something that made sense about Josh McDaniels unlikely 6-0 SU and ATS start in Denver. He was quoted as saying what he learned most under Bill Belichick was there was a way to beat every single team. It was the head coach’s responsibility to figure it out, sell it to the assistant coaches and in turn have them put it together for the players in understandable manner. If you believe what McDaniels says, Denver took away Dallas running game, exploited New England secondary and found special teams’ weaknesses in San Diego, which all led to victories.
Study the numbers
The NFL that everyone loves returned this week, with decided underdogs Buffalo and Oakland winning outright, with favorites a mere 5-9 ATS. This change has helped the sportsbooks who have been being beaten on parlays and teasers with so many big favorites winning. Talked to a sportsbook manager on the Vegas Strip who conveyed they took a lot of action on Steelers-Packers parlay and came away a good-sized winner on that product. Underdogs are 17-11 the last two weeks, after sporting 9-21 ATS record the two weeks prior. NFL time travelers are still having issues, with Philadelphia the latest three time zone team to fall, making them 2-8 ATS this season.
NFL teams that have a turnover margin of three or more are 4-8 against the spread if they play the following week. Professional football squads that played after winning outright as a road underdog are 9-4 ATS. Teams that have scored or allowed 40 or more points are a combined 7-1 ATS if they play the next week.
Totals players who march like lemmings when bad weather is reported, received a severe shock on Tennessee and New England outcome, which was over before halftime for Under bettors.
Week 6 of the NFL
This week of the National Football League season brings the top game of the season to date, with two unbeaten teams colliding in Norleans. The top inter-conference match has undefeated Minnesota facing a scuffling Baltimore bunch. Among the better division conflicts is Arizona at Seattle in the NFC West. Cincinnati id favored by more than field goal, which means a touchdown in the last 20 seconds to win and cover again for the Bengals. The rest of schedule is why the bye week doesn’t always work well and Tennessee and New England lost the coin flip.N.Y. Giants at New Orleans 1:00E FOX
Three NFC teams have set themselves apart in the first five weeks, and two of them match up on Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints (4-0 SU&ATS) host the Giants (5-0 SU&ATS) in a battle of unbeaten teams. It will be a battle of wills, as New York has been the best road team in the league under Tom Coughlin, going 31-13 ATS, including 19-10 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans has developed a strong home field advantage of late though; winning five of its last six contests both SU & ATS, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game. The Saints have also scored 23 points or more in every home game since Oct. 21 2007, a span of 14 games. They are looking to break a 0-3 SU & ATS record in post-bye week games under Sean Payton however. In this head-to-head series, home team own a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS edge in the nine meetings.
Keys to the Game-
Right now there is only one way to beat New Orleans, attack Drew Brees. New York has the front four wholly capable of going so and their secondary has quietly moved up the ladder to a top notch outfit. Brees is playing the best football of his career, but no quarterback will be successful without time. Defense end Osi Umenyiora will be facing backup left tackle, with Jammal Brown out, he must dominate. Look for Giants’ defenders to have loose lips to frustrate former teammate Jeremy Shockey with a steady stream of billingsgate and have him cause discord. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.
In case one hasn’t noticed, all the ESPN highlights about the Saints have been mostly Drew Brees passes. New Orleans is second in the league in rushing at 166.2 yards per game and coach Payton has shown remarkable patience is staying with the run, especially the last two games. If Pierre Thomas and others can keep their team in reasonable down and distance situations, Payton’s play sheet is more versatile. Don’t expect Brees to see what the Giants allow, instead the game plan will be to attack New York’s weaknesses, based on game film study. Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have to bring the pressure on Eli Manning and interior of the defense has to be stout against Giants running game. Try this, unbeaten favorites of three or more off a bye are astonishing 16-1 ATS.
3DW Line – New Orleans by 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -3, 47
Baltimore at Minnesota 1:00E CBS
One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under coach Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. Another negative number for the Minnesota franchise is 2-9 ATS mark vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points in his tenure. The Ravens (3-2 ATS) are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their last four games on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1UNDER in its pre-bye week contests and the underdog has covered four in a row in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the previous two meetings both SU & ATS.
Keys to the Game-
The Baltimore defense is not in the Top 5, it is 10th in the NFL. The ferociousness has dissipated. To get back to winners circle, the Ravens have to keep Adrian Peterson running laterally and stayed disciplined to avoid cutbacks. Brett Favre has faced almost no pass rush this season, except for a few plays against San Francisco. Make him feel his age. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS this month after consecutive SU & ATS setbacks and should attack the Vikings in the deep middle and with TE Todd Heap to create more running room. Quit taking stupid penalties.
The Minnesota game plan will include going after pedestrian secondary outside of Ed Reed. The Vikings receivers were considered ordinary until No.4 put on purple jersey. Make Baltimore defend the pass. If Cedric Benson can end the Ravens streak of 40 times not allowing a 100-yard rusher, A.P. should be able to make it 2-0 going the other direction. Peterson will have to maintain ball security, with Baltimore constantly tugging. The Vikes have the top red zone defense (four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20) in the league, kicker Matt Stover doesn’t figure to beat them booting field goals. Minny is 22-12-1 ATS at home off a win and cover.
3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -3, 46
One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under coach Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. Another negative number for the Minnesota franchise is 2-9 ATS mark vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points in his tenure. The Ravens (3-2 ATS) are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their last four games on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1UNDER in its pre-bye week contests and the underdog has covered four in a row in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the previous two meetings both SU & ATS.
Keys to the Game-
The Baltimore defense is not in the Top 5, it is 10th in the NFL. The ferociousness has dissipated. To get back to winners circle, the Ravens have to keep Adrian Peterson running laterally and stayed disciplined to avoid cutbacks. Brett Favre has faced almost no pass rush this season, except for a few plays against San Francisco. Make him feel his age. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS this month after consecutive SU & ATS setbacks and should attack the Vikings in the deep middle and with TE Todd Heap to create more running room. Quit taking stupid penalties.
The Minnesota game plan will include going after pedestrian secondary outside of Ed Reed. The Vikings receivers were considered ordinary until No.4 put on purple jersey. Make Baltimore defend the pass. If Cedric Benson can end the Ravens streak of 40 times not allowing a 100-yard rusher, A.P. should be able to make it 2-0 going the other direction. Peterson will have to maintain ball security, with Baltimore constantly tugging. The Vikes have the top red zone defense (four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20) in the league, kicker Matt Stover doesn’t figure to beat them booting field goals. Minny is 22-12-1 ATS at home off a win and cover.
3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -3, 46
Houston at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) are in rarefied air after five weeks, having won four straight games and leading the AFC North division. They are also 3-2 ATS in ’09, but 0-2 ATS as favorites, extending their recent mark in the chalk role to 3-10 ATS. Head coach Marvin Lewis opened as a 6.5-point point favorite in this one vs. Houston, with the line drifting downward. The Texans fell to 2-3 SU&ATS after losing at Arizona and are already three games back to Indy in the AFC South and come in to this one on a surge of 9-2 ATS on the road off another road game. Houston has covered four of its last six away overall. Cincinnati may be starting to regain a bit of home field advantage and comes in as winners of five of seven ATS as host. These clubs met a year ago in Houston, with HC Gary Kubiak’s team securing an easy 35-6 win as nine point favorites.
Keys to the Game-
The Houston running game stinks at 75.4 yards per game (30th). As proven last week, the Texans can move the ball passing, lighting up Arizona in the second half, however that is part of the problem, it’s very difficult to throw the ball consistently for 60 minutes a game, you need a semblance of balance to be thought of as playoff material. The defensive front has contained two mediocre rushing teams (89 total yards) the last two weeks, do the same against Cincinnati and Houston could move to 14-5 ATS as visiting underdog off road contest. QB Matt Shaub has to have complete game and the “Where’s Waldo” pass rush needs to reappear.
Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of new balanced offense and the longer they keep Houston’s pass offense on the sidelines the better. Test the Texans with Benson and determine how they will react. Do what everyone does, take away Houston running game. Cincy has one definite advantage in doing so, a terrific pass rush to make Shaub hesitant. Oddly, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging 90 or less yards game over the last three seasons. You’ve seen the Ben Stiller movies “Meet the Parents”, that sums up the Cincinnati snapper, holder and kicker on extra points and field goals.
3DW Line – Cincinnati by 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -5.5, 46.6
Arizona at Seattle 4:05E FOX
Seattle (2-3 ATS) hopes to head into its bye week at 3-3, but to do so, needs to come up with a second straight big effort at home. This week’s foe is rival Arizona (2-2 ATS), who snapped a five-game losing streak at Seattle in its Super Bowl season of 2008. The Seahawks are off the 41-0 win over Jacksonville, and looking to extend a winning streak of eight straight games (6-2 ATS) in pre-bye week games. They are on a 4-1-1 ATS run at home overall. For Arizona, now 2-2 after turning back Houston, this is the first divisional road game of 2009 and they were 3-0 SU & ATS in that spot last season. Overall, the Cardinals have covered six of previous eight road games. Favorites are 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight battles of this NFC West rivalry, while eight of 10 meetings have gone OVER the total.
Keys to the Game –
If you or someone you know has a bad back, it just doesn’t go away, especially if you are being knocked around. If Arizona wants to be tied for NFC West lead at the end of the day, they must sack Matt Hasselbeck, something they’ve failed to do the last two contests. Both Cardinals wins are not a coincidence, protect Kurt Warner and the offense hums. Coach Ken Whisenhunt prefers to portray himself as tough guy. He better start living up to image and find a running that would setup play-action passing game, since Larry Fitzgerald’s longest catch is 26 yards. Open running lanes and Zona moves to 5-0 ATS as underdog.
Seattle is a better team with Hasselbeck. Like Warner, the veteran quarterback can pick apart secondaries and the Cardinals surrender a NFL-high 303 yards per game via the pass. Give Hasselbeck time, watch the results. The Arizona run defense is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, nonetheless the Seahawks must keep trying and bounce a few runs outside the tackles with Julius Jones speed. The best way for Seattle to move to 11-2 ATS as home favorites is to do what they did last week, sack the quarterback five times.
3DW Line - Seattle by 4.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Seattle -3, 46.5
Tennessee at New England 4:15E CBS
Tennessee and New England were expected to be among the top contenders for the AFC title in 2009. Neither has lived up to billing. The Titans have been perhaps the NFL’s biggest disappointment, with 0-5 record (1-4 ATS) and on death’s door after the ugly 31-9 loss to Indy on Sunday night. They would love to head into their bye week with more positive momentum generated from an upset of New England (2-3 ATS). Tennessee has won six of its last seven pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, but has only gone 4-13 ATS vs. teams gaining over 375 yards per game on offense. New England dropped to 3-2 with its loss at Denver, but comes into this one with a 23-7 ATS record off a loss under Bill Belichick the last several years. The Patriots recently won back-to-back homes games SU & ATS after going 3-10 ATS in their previous 13.
Keys to the Game-
This contest was chosen by default and Tennessee has plenty of blame to go around. Kerry Collins has thrown as many interceptions this season (7) as of all of 2008. With no pass rush to speak of, the defensive have made more mistakes than the Bank of America and injuries have exacerbated the situation. The running game is starting to look like the Detroit Lions when Barry Sanders was there, the occasional burst from Chris Johnson, with truckload of negative plays. The Titans are 0-5 ATS off a SU failure and have gone from the leadership of Cronus, to being banished to Tartarus.
This looks to easy, but when a team is down, step on their throat from the start. The Tennessee secondary has more communication problems than Sprint and Tom Brady and his teammates should attack them with abandon. No reason Wes Welker shouldn’t drive them crazy and Randy Moss exploit the Titans deep. If the Patriots jump out to big lead, this is a good time to start finding a ground game for the rest of the season. New England is 21-8-1 ATS in October and the defense needs to move the line of scrimmage backwards after permitting 424 yards, the most in 18 games.
3DW Line – New England by 14.5
DiammondSportsbook.com Line – New England -9, 40
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
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