Missouri and Kansas Clash in Border War

Missouri was chosen as the seventh best team in the Big 12 before the season and early on that figure was befitting of their play. Yet, as the team worked together, they developed chemistry and all the hard work is paying off having won 10 of 11 (5-2 ATS). Last season’s Elite Eight club suffered key losses, but that experience taught the returning players about what it takes to play at high level. The Tigers (15-4, 8-5 ATS) mentally grinding pressure makes them 16-6 ATS versus offensive teams like Kansas scoring 77 or more points a game, including 6-0 against the spread this season.

The loss to Tennessee might have been a good thing for Kansas (18-1, 8-7-1 ATS), as players and coaches were able to get back on the same page. The Jayhawks are as talented as any team in the land and all players that see major minutes have aspirations of playing at the next level, which can become a distraction for coaches. Bill Self has stressed the importance of playing for each other and winning the Big 12, earning No. 1 seed, which allows the other aspects to take care of themselves. Kansas is sick 17-3-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record past the midpoint of the regular season the last two years.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Kansas listed as 12-point home favorites with total of 150, which works out to projected score of 81-69, which sounds off since Missouri averages 81.6 points per contest, however their point total falls off on the road where they’ve scored 70.9 PPG in seven road conflicts.

Missouri is 13-3 ATS having won two of their last three games since last season and is 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this year. The Tigers have to be aggressive and look to force their 20.9 turnovers per game, which is the best in the country. Misso is 11-2 OVER as a road underdog or pick the last three seasons.

Since losing to the Vols, the Jayhawks have won four in a row (2-1-1 ATS) and one player in particular is returning to his old form. Center Cole Aldrich has faced several issues of late, including dealing with the loss of his grandmother last week and he bounced back with his first double-double since Jan. 2 at Iowa State Saturday. “It just feels good to be back,” Aldrich said. “I’ve been through a lot of stuff. It’s tough and it weighs on me, but I’m just going out and giving it my heart.” The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after playing a road game and are 13-4 UNDER off a win against a conference rival since last year.

Jayhawks are laudable 10-1 and 6-4-1 ATS in Missouri’s last 11 visits to Lawrence and this Border War begins at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.

Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

Before the Los Angeles Dodgers are anointed a World Series slot out of the National League, a potential deadly flaw is emerging. There is still plenty of time for manager Joe Torre’s team to pull away from this nasty grouping, yet it certainly is water cooler fodder.

Coming into the season, the Dodgers pitching was the big question mark. No established ace was viewed, with Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72) expected to accept the role, before his 25th birthday. The rest of the rotation was up in the air and despite the team’s success, Los Angeles still has issues. Billingsley and Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.45) have 21 starts and young Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.95) has been given the ball 19 times. Beyond that, things become a little fuzzy, like many of the everyday inhabitants of Venice Beach.

Hiroki Kuroda has 10 starts wrapped around an injury. Eric Stults made nine before hitting the DL and Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton have five a piece. The Dodgers have even tried oft-injured Jason Schmidt recently, trying to extract innings for salary, since wins are 50-50 prop at best.

This leads to the Dodgers being 28th in baseball in quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) with 41. Only Washington and Baltimore have fewer quality starts. Since 2002, only three teams have finished with winning records if they finished in the bottom five of this category and none made the playoffs. While a winning record and postseason entry certainly appear in the Dodgers future, possibly playing at .642 clip might not. The Dodgers bullpen is second only to Oakland in innings used at 3.42 per game and they might have a few tired arms when August and September roll around. This could mean excellent underdog opportunities, especially if the offense hits a slump.

Bookmaker.com had projected Houston for 73.5 wins for the 2009 campaign. The Astros are well ahead of that pace with 49-46 (+4.5 units) record, yet don’t count that money as winnings just yet. Houston started the year 6-12, however recent 11-3 stretch have brought them back to respectability and into NL Central boat race. Houston has the oldest everyday starting lineup and starting pitching staff in the National League.

The ‘Stros numbers have this club opening up a can of commonplace. They are 10th in runs scored in the senior circuit, 12th in home runs, 14th in walks and 8th in on-base and slugging percentages. About the only aspect of Houston’s offense that stands out is they are second in baseball in fewest strikeouts.

Because owner Drayton McLane set limits on expenditures, while wanting to keep his aging assets, general manager Ed Wade made a trip to the junkyard to try to piece together starting pitching staff beyond Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriquez. Digging thru the scrapheap, he found 37-year Brian Moehler (7-5, 4.92 ERA), Russ Ortiz (2-3, 5.02), whose like a pesky rash that won’t go away and Mike Hampton (5-7, 4.63), who left New York Mets for Colorado in 2000, not because of money (wink-wink), but because he and his wife liked the school system in Denver area. (Oh that makes more sense now)

Houston will be depending on three golden oldies in the starting staff, a veteran lineup that has been through the baseball wars. They could be mentally tough and persevere or physically challenged by season’s end and fall apart. Let’s speculate the season total of 73.5 comes into play for the year is out.

All indications are Toronto will deal Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays front office better be prepared to make the right deal, or they will fall even further behind the three teams into front of them in the AL East, in the short and long term. For every Josh Beckett to Boston (along with Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota) for essentially Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez trade, is Tim Hudson to Atlanta for three baseball cards with the pictures of Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas.

If or when Halladay is dealt, that makes 24-year old Ricky Romero (8-4, 3.45) the ace of the Blue Jays staff. Toronto will play 29 of remaining 66 games starting Friday against Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees, along with eight other matchups versus AL Division leaders Detroit and Los Angeles. This could be a birdbath full of opportunities to play against the Jays.