AUGUST’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

By Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL pre-season whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott *12-6
The Minnesota starting pitching has been mediocre for a large part of the season and Scott Baker has been part of the problem, with ERA hovering around 5. This would be the right time for the right-hander to pitch up to expectations with the Twins looking for another AL Central crown.

Bush, Dave * 8-3
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush begins this month with below average career record of 53-64, however he has flourished in the dog days of summer. With fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he has to have his variety of breaking stuff working to be effective, which it is usually this month.

Hernandez, Felix * 13-5
Last season Hernandez was 19-5, with WHIP of 1.114 and hitters batting .227 against him. This year his WHIP to start this month is exactly the same, opponents are hitting ever so slightly better at .232, yet with an inferior team, he is 7-8. With run support, King Felix could have typical August.

Kazmir, Scott * 12-5
On the DL, expected to have rehab assignment the middle of August and could return if all goes well.

Lincecum, Tim * 12-6
Being a two-time Cy Young winner, there are not many bad months. Though still extremely effective, the ERA is up over three this season, with strikeouts down and opponents batting average up to .240 (compared to .221 career). Let’s see if Lincecum pitches to usual high standards with San Francisco back in pennant race.

Oswalt, Roy *13-3
Always a strong closer at the end of the year, Oswalt got the energy boost he needed being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pettitte, Andy *13-5
On the DL since July 19, Pettitte has been soft-tossing without discomfort and could well be back before projected 4-5 weeks initial outlook to continue August dominance.

Pineiro, Joel * 12-2
In the midst of solid 10-7 season and career innings pitched, the Angels right-hander is out six to eight weeks with oblique strain.

Sabathia, C.C. * 14-4
The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts, proving he is primed for another awesome August.

Santana, Ervin * 10-4
Always a quality No. 3 starter, Santana has often been an important cog in the Angels winning AL West titles. While this might not occur in 2010, this Dominican dandy is poised for another sharp month.

Shields, James *12-6
If Tampa Bay is to catch the Yankees, getting better pitching from James Shields would make a difference. His 9-9 record with 4.79 ERA is far cry from 2007-08 when he was 26-16, with ERA a full run lower. Time for Shields to find a way to avoid bats.

Wainwright, Adam *10-3
The Cardinals have a pair of aces with Chris Carpenter and Wainwright and the Georgia native could be on to 20-win campaign if he has usual stellar August. Opposing teams are batting a career low .219 against him.

Wolf, Randy * 10-3
The lefty has found the difference between Miller Park and Dodger Stadium to be severe this season. Two areas demonstrate the difference for Wolf this year compared to last. In 2009, opponents hit .227 against Wolf, presently they are at .269. His strikeout totals this season are more reflective of his poorer career years with 87 to begin August, compared to 160 last season. Will Wolf turn it around?

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach * 2-8
When opponents are batting over .300 against a starting pitcher for his career, the front office should look in the mirror and question themselves.

Guthrie, Mark * 5-13
His ERA is up nearly a run in last 10 starts, explaining 1-6 record. When Guthrie struggles, it’s because the fastball comes to the plate like it is on a string and breaking stuff lacks bite to keep hitters off balance. Pitching for Orioles doesn’t help.

Hernandez, Livan * 4-11
His ERA is creeping up, yet still highly respectable 3.22. For most of his later career, Hernandez has tended to wear down as the year progressed, making him play against pitcher as part of his M.O.

Olsen, Scott * 2-9
Has made one start since being placed on the DL in May and difficult to determine how the left-hander might do for Washington with only 20 total appearances the last two years.

Owings, Micah * 3-8
Optioned to Triple-A Louisville by Cincinnati on July 28.

Robertson, Nate * 3-8
Released by Florida on July 27.


Doug Upstone of 3dailywinners.net contributed to this article.

MLB Series Wagering - Rays at A's

Going to go against the grain, while the Yankees and Red Sox will hog a lot of the headlines this weekend in Major League Baseball, the fact is neither is in first place. The real action this Mother’s Day weekend is in the Bay Area where two American League teams are playing and each starts their three game series atop their division.

The last team to start the season 21-7 like Tampa Bay was the 2005 Chicago White Sox, who went on to win the World Series. The last AL team to have an ERA under three (the Rays are at 2.84) this far into a new campaign was the White Sox five years ago and they won the World Series.

You get the picture; Tampa Bay is off to sensational start, thanks to great pitching and an everyday lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per contest, the best in the bigs.

“Right now, we’re going to ride this as long as we can,” manager Joe Maddon said. “Obviously, the starting pitching has been fabulous. … I believe we can play to this standard for a long time.”

The Rays arrive in Oakland with a four game winning streak after sweeping Seattle and are just the fourth team in the last 49 years to start 12-1 or better on the road. Tampa Bay isn’t just beating other clubs in their own park, they are pulverizing them, winning by 4.7 RPG. They will start David Price (3-1, 2.34 ERA) in the opener, the top pick in the 2007 draft. The left-hander is living up to his considerable potential has given up three runs or fewer in each of his five starts.

Oakland has something not many would have expected in the first full weekend of May, a winning record. The A’s won their series over Texas this week and is tied for first in the AL West.

Oakland will trot out their talented lefty Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 3.45), who has cut down on his walks which has kept him out of bad innings. At 24, for the first time in his career, he is mixing his low-90’s fastball with big breaking curve, showcasing his swing-and-miss stuff on a regular basis. Gonzalez has more strikeouts (27) than hits allowed (23) and has not conceded a home run in his last four starts.

The red-hot Rays are a -155 money line favorite Friday night with total Un7.5 and are 79-23 as a favorite of -150 or more and are 12-2 OVER against teams with a winning record. The teams last met in Florida on Apr. 28, with the A’s falling 10-3. Oakland is just 3-7 as home underdog and is 15-4 UNDER revenging a road loss of six runs or more over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Oakland

The Athletics are well aware how good Tampa Bay is having dropped a pair to them in 2010. They respect what they have accomplished but are not intimidated by the former Devil Rays.

“They've got a good lineup -- a lot of runners and also some good power," said Oakland catcher Landon Powell. "But I like our team, too. You go out there any day [and] any team can win, so we're going to try and do our best and see what happens."

The A’s might have one edge in the final two games of the series being played under natural sunlight; they are 8-3 in the day time. Skipper Bob Geren gives the ball to Ben Sheets (1-3, 7.12) whose returning from injury. After a number of adequate starts, Sheets has been ripped for 19 hits and 17 runs in last two outings, serving up batting practice pitches that opposing hitters have taken yard five times. Oakland has won just once in six starts by Sheets but is 8-3 on Saturday’s.

The second best pitching prospect in the Rays organization behind Price is the Game 2 start Wade Davis (3-1, 2.79). The right-hander has 93-94 MPH fastball, with what scouts call a “plus hard curve”. Even with his obvious skills, Davis best attribute is his unflappable nature and supreme composure. Tampa has won Davis’ prior four starts and is sparkling 7-0 vs. RH hurlers.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

If A’s can earn a split coming series finale, they have history on their side. Tampa Bay has won five on last nine meetings in Oakland, but has a long dismal history of failure in Oak-Town with 12-34 record coming into the series.

James Shields (4-0, 3.15) is the elder statesmen of the staff at 28 and will try to keep his club on the winning track. The right-hander has reputation working both sides of the plate with his hard stuff and a spinner curveball. Shields’ has arguably the best change-up in the AL and will throw it on any count. He is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland.

The white-clad Athletics counter with Dallas Braden (3-2, 4.14) who has five quality starts in six games, with the one bad coming against the Rays and Shields (6 runs and 8 hits in 4 innings). Braden has short over the top delivery and likes to cut his fastball to keep it away from RH batters. When he uses his curve, prefers big sweeper to lefties and downward motion to hitters on the other side of the box. Braden has a 2-1 record with a 2.67 ERA in four home starts this season and has brilliant strikeout-to-walk ratio of 19-3 at the Oakland Coliseum. Look for manager Maddon to load up with RH swingers since Braden is permitting .229 BA to lefties and .274 to righties.

Game 3 Edge: Tampa Bay

It might be intriguing to bet the A’s in this series, but it wouldn’t make sense. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball because they score runs and don’t allow many. They have allowed more than eight base hits twice in their last 11 contests.

Oakland only bats .252 as team and they are ninth in runs scored at 4.3 in the junior circuit. If they can grab a lead in the late innings the A’s would have a chance, since they are the only team in baseball without a blown save (6-0), however the Rays are patient as the dish drawing over four walks a game.

Now does not appear to be the time to bet against Tampa Bay.

Sportsbook series odds: Tampa Bay -190, Oakland +150

3Daily Winners Pick: Tampa Bay

2010 Record – 2-2


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Time for Rays to Roll

You will have to forgive the Tampa Bay Rays for possibly not giving their best performance on Sunday, losing 5-1 to Toronto. Tampa Bay still won the series north of the border and completed one of the better road trips of the year with 6-4 record. While it’s true, every game will count the same no matter when it’s played over a 162-game schedule, some games and series have more meaning then others, which would be the case starting Monday night for the Rays.

Manager Joe Madden’s club is 54-45 (+1.3 units) and trails the first place New York Yankees by 6.5 games in the AL East. In order for Tampa Bay to start closing the gap, they have to do no worse than win two out of three encounters in opening up big nine-game homestand.

“This is a crucial homestand,” Pat Burrell said. “I think it will dictate a lot, especially with the (July 31 trade) deadline coming up. If we have a real good homestand, I mean real good; we’re going to be in a good place.”

The Rays will try to build on recent success they have enjoyed at Tropicana Field, where they have won 20 of last 25. Tampa Bay knows the Bronx Bombers have explosive offensive, which they have managed to turnaround to their favor with 22-6 mark at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better.

James Shields (6-6, 3.70 ERA) will be given the assignment of containing New York and he’s had more than his share of problems. Shields’ hasn’t won a game since June 20 and his ERA is 5.89 in his last three starts. Fortunately, he loves pitching at The Trop and is 4-2 there this season and with the Rays off a loss, Shields and mates are 8-2 on home turf.

The Yankees (60-38, +1.2 units) leave home having won 10 of 11 and open an important road trip in West Florida. Besides facing Tampa Bay, New York will have four in the Windy City with the White Sox and head to Toronto for two tilts before returning home to take on the challenge of Boston.

The Yankees haven’t always been dominant during this streak, but they found ways to win. Joe Girardi’s veteran club is 12-2 in last 14 contests against right-hander hurlers and has conquered teams with winning records to the tune of 15-5. A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74) has settled into the role the New York front office had in mind when they doled out $82.5 million contract to him. Over his last six starts, Burnett has been dominating, sporting 5-1 record and 1.82 ERA.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money line road favorites, with total Un9. The Yanks have won 12 of 14 when Burnett is wearing the favorite cap and they are 41-17 as chalk. New York is 6-0 UNDER in Burnett’s last six starts. Though Shields is effective pitcher at home, Yankees hitters have brought out the worst in him with 1-6 record, 5.73 ERA in eight career starts. He’ll seek previous magic which has allowed the Rays to win 27 of his 35 home starts, including four of five as underdog. Since leaving the name Devil Rays behind, Tampa Bay is 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 of this weighty series is set to commence at 7:08 Eastern and can be viewed on YES and Fox Sports Florida, along with MLB.TV. Burnett is 8-4 versus the Rays in his career and New York is 12-9 the last few years as visitor where Big Stein resides.