NFL Draft Winners and Losers for upcoming season

The National Football League’s prime time draft was a rating success and much like Wal-Mart, obliterated the competition for sports television ratings, sending NBA commish David Stern a chilling message about what people prefer to watch this time of year.

Though the most football experts say the actual results of the draft won’t be known for a few years after everyone chosen can be evaluated thoroughly, that however is not the world we live in. It’s with a great of certainty the History Channel does score well for viewership or hits on-line with the under 30 crowd, unless it was something their parents had talked about.

With that idea in mind, here’s what teams could be impacted this upcoming year both positively and negatively.

Winners

It would have been hard for St. Louis to screw this up. Sam Bradford is their franchise signal caller and presumably they will have him start by sometime in October, if not sooner. OT Rodger Saffold will help adding depth and Bradford protection in the offensive line and WR Mardy Gilyard has good hands and an aggressive attitude. If seventh round pick George Selvie played like he did as sophomore and junior on the defensive line at South Florida, the Rams got a steal.

The first year for GM John Schneider and Pete Carroll in Seattle could hardly have gone better. OT Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas were two coveted players and they landed them both. Before the draft they maneuvered to acquire Charley Whitehurst as quarterback, that is still a wait and see development, but is a better choice over aging Matt Hasselbeck. If WR Golden Tate becomes more disciplined route runner, he will catch anything near him and be home run threat. CB Walter Thurmond might be theft in the fourth round if he stays healthy. The additions of LenDale White and Leon Washington will add far greater versatility to offensive backfield with minimal damage to future drafts.

This is not a misprint, seemingly in spite of themselves the Oakland Raiders not only didn’t screw up their picks, and they might actually benefit from them. Al Davis finally took a real football player in the first round in MLB Rolando McClain. Though most had him going a bit later in the first round, he adds size and instincts in the heart of the defense behind Richard Seymour. The Raiders evidently even had a plan, trading former MLB Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville for speedy (4.28) Clemson WR Jacoby Ford. Bruce Campbell was “combine king” in Indianapolis and has potential to be special in the offensive line and they didn’t take him with first pick to boot. Not sure if Jason Campbell will ever amount to more than what he already is, but JaMarcus Russell’s football future is now up to him. Don’t be surprised it Oakland demands the former top pick takes a MONSTER pay cut and if he refuses, he’d be lucky to get a month of free meals at Applebee’s for a contract as free agent, let alone cash for the money he’s stolen.

Honorable mention – Miami, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets and Baltimore

Losers

What was Jacksonville thinking or were they? The Jaguars selected California’s Tyson Alualu with the 10th overall pick and not one accredited draft expert had him higher than 25th, meaning if Jacksonville was uncertain about what to do, they could have traded down, picked up another selection and still gotten Alualu. Larry Hart, Austen Lee and D’Anthony Smith are all potential defensive disrupters, but their impact would appear to be minimal this upcoming year.

Minnesota has defensive backfield needs and didn’t address them in the most positive way, settling for CB Chris Cook from Virginia, who ran a slowish-time at the combine. USC pass rusher Everson Griffin slipped to the fourth round, so either the Vikings got exceptional value for this player with first round ability or he is underachiever and won’t amount to much. It didn’t matter who drafted Toby Gearhart, questions on both sides were going to be raised. It just happened Minnesota choose him and the world will find out soon enough if he is a quality football player or if the numbers on speed and upright running style means limited career.

Hard to call Tennessee a loser in this spot, because their top picks are in many ways coach Jeff Fisher-type players. Nevertheless, each coming out of college has athletic limitations, without having the proverbial “upside”. Derrick Morgan is high effort player, but not gifted athlete. WR Damian Williams has trouble eluding jams off the line of scrimmage and will try and be difference-maker as punt returner. LB Rennie Curran tackles everything he sees, the issue is what he sees at 5’10. Safety Myron Rolle IS the smartest player in the draft (Rhodes Scholar at Oxford), but coaches at this level wonder about a player that wants to be a surgeon, unless he is cutting up opposing wide receivers.

Dishonorable mention – Chicago, San Diego and Cleveland

Week 3 is sneak peek into the start of NFL regular season

This is the week most NFL coaches enjoy in August, having preparation that is most similar to what the regular season will be like in a couple of weeks. For the most part, the starters will play in the third quarter and the intensity level is relatively high for football played this month, with jobs on the line at various positions and teams wanting to make a good showing. Week 3 starts with three contests, all with their own unique flavor.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

If this was a TMZ.com piece, Michael Vick would be splashed all over and quotes and pictures would be seen. However this isn’t TMZ, this is about sports betting and what could lie ahead for a pair of teams without a preseason victory. Teams that don’t win a game in the preseason have averaged 7.3 wins a year once the real season begins since 1997, which is well below the expectations for both these clubs. Even worse, only one of the last 11 teams that were 0 for the preseason has made the playoffs. (Thanks Mr. East of Playbook.com for that info)


Jacksonville has lost there two games by a total four points and could just as easily be 2-0, be it for a bit more offensive execution. Quarterback David Garrard has looked sharp and receiver Troy Williamson has been exceptional opposite of Torry Holt as the Jaguars new receivers’ core. The Jacksonville running game needs to find another gear after producing 127 yards the first two games. The Jags head to Philly as 7.5-point underdogs according to Bookmaker.com and they are 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Coach Andy Reid stated Donovan McNabb will play the first three quarters and Kevin Kolb the final 15 minutes, but Mr. Vick will see time with the starters. The impression one has is Reid wants to start having upcoming regular season opponents start game-planning for the Eagles newest weapon. Of greatest concern to Philadelphia is the projected offense line starters have not played one down together and they are unlikely too this week either. Philly is only 2-7 ATS in third game of preseason.

Miami at Tampa Bay

This Fox nationally televised contest will have a Florida flavor with the Dolphins at Tampa Bay. Miami has looked impressive in first starts and though Chad Pennington is the clear starter at quarterback, back-up Chad Henne is looking like the future of Fins football. He’s been confident and a real leader and his passes have more zip on them, something not seen since the guy doing the Nutri-System commercials was wearing a Miami helmet. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively (129.5 yards per game) and the defensive line has contained opponents rushing attack. Curious to see if Tampa Bay goes after Dolphins safeties who are vulnerable to the pass. The Fish are 2.5-point underdogs and are 23-15-2 ATS in this spot.

Tampa Bay has split a pair of contests, winning as underdog last week against Jacksonville and is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. New head coach Raheem Morris has not named a starting quarterback yet, with the front office putting out feelers to find out what Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich could bring back in trade. Both have obvious limitations and top pick Josh Freeman isn’t ready. Indecision is not good and the Bucs are 1-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Whatever appeal this game has is lessened by the fact both starting quarterbacks might not see any action. Carson Palmer has an ankle issue and Marc Bulger a finger problem. That means a heavy dose J.T. O'Sullivan for Cincinnati and St. Louis counters with Kyle Boller.

The Bengals first unit has moved the ball no matter who has played quarterback and is averaging 6.4 yards per play. It has been breakdowns at the wrong times that have stalled drives and left them without any points. Expect this to be an area coach Marvin Lewis wants more production from, for a squad that is 1-7 ATS in Week 3.

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs and have a lot to shore up before regular season begins. The entire defense has made multiple miscues in understanding new coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’s been preaching "Get low and stick 'em" tackling, however too many defenders have fallen back to old ways and it will just take time. St. Louis is a sickly 1-9 ATS off a home loss.

Friday NFL Wagering Opportunities

The Week 2 NFL preseason card thickens with a trio of wagering options to start the weekend. The showcase contest is Tennessee at Dallas, which will be on Fox starting at 8 Eastern. Kansas City will make the trip north to Brett Favre country (now west of Wisconsin) to face the Vikings and former division rivals Atlanta and St. Louis will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River. (Picture made you take a closer look, admit it)

Tennessee at Dallas

The world will get its first look at the brand new Cowboys Stadium, with its retractable-roof, built for reported price of $1.15 billion, which is big even by Texas standards. Dallas gave their usual desultory first game effort (2-5 SU and ATS), in being whacked by Oakland 31-10. Quarterback Tony Romo should see increased playing time in preparation for the regular season. Dallas will look to control Tennessee’s running game since they are 0-11 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Tennessee already has wrapped up two wins in August and would gladly take a third if the Cowboys want to go thru the motions again. The storyline for the Titans is this, will Vince Young be able to build on last week’s crisp performance (9-14 for 131 yards, TD)? DiamondSportsbook.com has Dallas as three-point favorites with the total at 37 points. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog, while the Cowboys are 2-9 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Kansas City at Minnesota

The circus has come to Minneapolis, not the Big Top with cotton candy, thrills and chills, no its Brett Favre, this time wearing a Barney-colored number four. Whatever the reasons for Favre’s return, coach Brad Childress has believed since last season the former Packer and Jet quarterback is better than what he’s had on his roster. Sage Rosenfels is now the backup and in all likelihood, Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty are playing for a roster spot.

The Vikings defense bottled up the Indianapolis last week (142 total yards) and is 5-1 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Minnesota is a three-point favorite on the home turf and will sell more tickets for this encounter than anticipated.

With last week’s 16-10 home loss to Houston, Kansas City is now 5-16 and 4-16-1 ATS since 2004 in the preseason. New coach Todd Haley and Chiefs front office won’t say anything publicly, but there has to be a few furrowed brows after Matt Cassel was outplayed by both Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen in Week 1. Kansas City has failed to cover six straight Week 2 assignments and is 3-12 ATS off a home loss.

Atlanta at St. Louis

New Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be on the home team sidelines in St. Louis for the first time Friday. The always intense former defensive coordinator was pleased with the play of the offensive line that helped generate 6.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries in 23-20 win as four-point road underdogs against the New York Jets. Everything isn’t perfect in Rams-land however, as starting quarterback Mark Bulger fractured pinkie on his throwing hand in practice this past Monday, and is presumed out two weeks. That means the reins are turned over to Kyle Boller as first choice, along with Brock Berlin and Keith Null. With top receiver Donny Avery already out bettors have pounced on Atlanta, taking them from one-point underdogs to three point favorites.

The Falcons backups couldn’t hold a 23-10 lead midway thru the third quarter at Detroit and were passed on the last play of the game 27-26. Matt Ryan and the rest of the first team are expected to see extended minutes this week; however the play of the Atlanta reserves is of note if the Birds face injuries during the regular season. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road and are 6-1 against the number playing the second of two consecutive road encounters.

Sunday Best for NFL Betting

Ahh, nice to be back on the winning side with 2-1 record, though we have to get this system thing sorted out. Today’s best system has different twist than anything we have had all season and is 83.3 percent since 1999. Our Top Trends have been a serious winner of late, let’s see if a bad team can make us look good again. Left Coast Connection member Sal is having a outstanding week and has his best NFL play available. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home teams off two or more consecutive Unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams averaging 23-27 PPG after eight or more games on the season. This dandy system is 15-3 ATS, 83.3 percent the last decade. It says here San Diego is the team that fits this system.

Free Football Trend -2) The St. Louis Rams are 2-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal gave us the Florida Gators winner on the way to a 6-2 day and comes back with Tampa Bay as his Best Bet on the NFL board.

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