Sometimes your the windshield, sometimes your the bug

Last night I went 1-2, but had my chances. I bet against Stephen Strasburg and Washington, as Florida had him on the ropes the first three innings, leaving six men on base. To his credit, Strasburg got the Marlins out, but the Fish certainly had their chances.

I took another underdog with the streaking White Sox, who finally saw the air come out of the balloon, but in a unusual way. The Pale Hose committed four errors which was the difference in their 7-4 loss. San Diego won comfortably to complete the day.

If I were presented with the same exact circumstances again today for betting baseball, I would make the same three wagers. It just didn't work out.

Baseball Betting Choice – The Rook or the Vet

Stephen Strasburg’s rookie debut has caused quite a stir in baseball, showcasing his incredible ability. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) is 13 years older than his mound opponent on Monday night and could put his right arm around the youngster and share his wisdom, having already traveled down this road. Instead, he will try and out-duel the younger phenom.

Strasburg’s (2-1, 1.78) highly anticipated professional campaign has been marked by a number of first’s, the last being his first loss in the Major Leagues, a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. Though he permitted a season-high nine base hits in his six innings of work, he did strike out nine Royals batters, walking none for the third time in four starts. He also broke a record that has stood since 1955, fanning 41 hitters in his first four initial starts.

“I know there’s going to be times when it’s going to be like this in the future,” Strasburg said. “And there’s going to be times when I’m not pitching well, and they’ll just go out there and score a ton of runs and save me. It’s baseball.”

Lost in all the excitement of Strasburg becoming a member of Washington (33-43), is their recent futility. The Nationals are 3-13 since the right-hander arrived in D.C. and they swept Pittsburgh June 8-10. The most recent three losses were a real embarrassment even for the Nats, as they lost all three games to regional rival Baltimore. That was just the Orioles second sweep of the season and their first ever over Washington since they arrived in the area in 2005.
Hudson is all the way back for last year’s surgery pitching for Atlanta (44-32), which has the best home record in the big leagues at 26-8. Hudson has sparkled at Turner Field with 4-1 record and 1.87 ERA, allowing only 23 hits in 33 1/3 innings. The right-hander has enjoyed any matchup with Washington, sporting an 8-1 record and minuscule 1.62 ERA. In his career, Hudson is 58-22 in home games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)

Oddsmakers have the Braves as -115 money line favorites, with total Ov.6.5. Atlanta enters this series opener 14-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 9-2 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.

Washington will try and avoid the usual doldrums that affect them, as they are 30-62 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 2008 and 23-10 UNDER in the same role since last season.

This NL East matchup is on ESPN2 at 7:10 Eastern and surprisingly these teams have split the last 18 contests in Atlanta.

Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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Bring Back Steroids to Baseball!

I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than a year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

Written by Red Wydley who drops by on occasion.

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