Colonial and WCC Conference Wagering Previews

The college conference action starts to build in earnest today with four more gearing up for action, to go along with those that have commenced. Our focus is on two that will have a championship game on ESPN this coming Monday night, the Colonial and West Coast conferences. Both leagues feature teams that have enjoyed NCAA tournament success and should have highly competitive events. In addition, we have some of the top wagering information on each conference, so let’s move ahead in these exciting days of March.

Colonial Athletic Association Preview

The CAA has enjoyed another exciting campaign and this year’s postseason tourney is sure to match. Five teams have a legitimate chance to be crowned champs with one more lurking on the outside. Old Dominion (23-8, 10-16-1 ATS) was the regular season champion, thanks in part to unblemished (15-0) home record. What is concern about the Monarchs is they don’t shoot the ball that well (44.8 percent), with many of their baskets coming on offensive rebounds as put-backs. This would seem to make them vulnerable. Northeastern (19-11, 15-13-1 ATS) doesn’t come in playing well, having lost three of last six (0-6 ATS) and not playing typically tough defense. George Mason (17-13, 11-15-1 ATS) has been in the finals the last three years and though talented, are very young, which could make them finalist or one and done.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 13-12 -1 ATS) has won the CAA tourney two of the last three years and has center Larry Sanders, who can be domineering player. The Rams style of pressure defense is disruptive and they have pedigree for this event, plus the advantage of playing in their home town of Richmond. William & Mary (20-9, 15-9-1 ATS) has been in the conference chase all season, however this is new territory for them, though they have the league’s best road record at 10-6 and 10-5 ATS. If you want a good long shot, try Hofstra (18-13, 14-14-1 ATS), they’ve won nine of 10 and are 9-3-1 ATS in true road games.

Betting notes- Favorites of less than 10 points have been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 2002, sporting 40-19 ATS record…. Underdogs of 10 or more points are an unbelievable of late, showing mediocre 2-15 SU record but astonishing 15-2 ATS (88.2 percent) mark since 2003….Total players can cash with bankroll building 37-17 UNDER record in the last six years. … In the championship game, the favored team has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75 percent).

Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Hofstra final

West Coast Conference Preview

This is one of the most dependable tournaments in determining at least one of the teams to be in the finals. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-10-2 ATS) has been the class of the WCC for years and has been a finalist every year since 1998, being the champions nine times. They will again be heavily favored, playing in Las Vegas again, with the matter of whom their opponent might be.
St. Mary’s (24-5, 18-9-1 ATS) and Portland (20-9, 14-10-1 ATS) are presumed to be the only two candidates worthy and the Bulldogs have won and covered against them in four tries this season. The Gaels and Pilots are expected to square off a third time in the semis, with each having won on their home court.

St. Mary’s would appear to have the edge with 10-3 SU road record (9-3 ATS) and difference-maker like center Omar Samhan in the paint. The Gaels are not a lock, as Portland has a good club and knows the only way to make NCAA Tournament is winning the West Coast tourney. Should these teams meet as expected, there matchup on ESPN2 Sunday night might be better than the finals.

Betting Notes -Favorites of seven or more are 27-0 SU and 19-8 ATS in the WCC tournamentsince 1998….Favorites own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the last 12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) record in Round One….Neutral floor chalk of seven points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4 percent) in the WCC tournament since 1998….Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 2001, are 10-1 OVER the number.

Prediction: Gonzaga and Portland final

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Learn from the power of the Bracket Buster

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (-3, 113) 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler (-7.5, 141) 11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (-8.5, 135) 1:00E ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific (-5, 140.5)10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.