The King could be overthrown in Boston tonight

LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.

After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.

"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.

I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."

It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire?
Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?

Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)

What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.

For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.

Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots.
Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.

Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?

Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.

Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.

"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."

Oddsmakers have Boston as 1.5-point favorites with total of 196.5, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.

The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.

Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.

King James to guard Rondo in Game 5, maybe

The spelling might be slightly different, but Rajon Rondo has been very much like Ronco’s famous “Veg-O-Matic”. Rondo has sliced and diced the Cleveland defense and cut up the Cavaliers guards like helpless tomatoes or onions. Even with an up-and-down Game 3 performance, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest and is the biggest reason Boston and Cleveland is now best two of three.

NBA playoff basketball is about making adjustments from game to game. Cleveland was more aggressive from the start in Game 3, as LeBron James and his teammates bottled up Boston from the opening tap and free-wheeled around the TD Garden going wherever they wanted in winning 124-95 as one-point underdogs.

Coach Doc Rivers didn’t like his offense or defense in that contest and made two modifications for Sunday’s game. He wanted every defender to create more on-ball pressure, thus limiting Cleveland’s ability to drive or pass wherever they desired to go and got more hands up on shots and limited the Cavs to 40.3 percent shooting after draining 59.5 percent two days prior.

Though not publicly stated since series opener, Rivers evidently gave Rondo the green light to take the ball and go rim-running whether he had teammates or not. Rivers had said after Game 1 he wanted other Celtics players to run with Rondo in transition. They did for the most part in second contest in Cleveland, but went back to old ways in being drubbed in next tilt.
Rondo appeared to have free reign Sunday afternoon and carved up the Cavaliers defense for 29 points, 13 assists and a Bill Russell-like 18 rebounds. Boston won by 10 as 1.5-point home dogs and is 5-1 ATS after winning as a home underdog.

LeBron James has surveyed the situation and is tired of watching his guards get cleaved up by Rondo. “I think it starts with Rondo. He's kind of the engine that really gets them going," James said. "He does everything for them. His performance was unbelievable."Rondo was definitely the difference maker."

James has increasing taken pride in his ability to stop opposing players and was spotted by more than one courtside observer in Boston letting coach Mike Brown know he wants to get into defensive stance against Rondo.

"I would love to,'' James said after the game. “It's something we maybe should explore because Rondo is definitely dominating this series at the point guard position. For me, I don't have a problem taking Rondo or guarding Rondo throughout the course of the game. If the coaching staff or the guys want me to do it, I will."

This is not unprecedented for the Cavs as King James guarded Derrick Rose in last series and limited what the Bulls guard could do taking turns with teammates.

Cleveland is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite and is a 7.5-point pick with total of 194.5. This strategy might come out of necessity for coach Brown whose team is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Since the guards are not handling the lightning quick Boston guard and are once again ineffective as scorers, just like in Orlando series in last season’s playoffs, Brown might be forced to employ this method.

The green-clad C’s are 11-4-1 ATS in postseason underdog role and know the better defense they play, that leaves more chances for the former Kentucky guard to run free in the open court.

This TNT 8:00 Eastern matchup has alternated Over’s and Under’s in the first four meetings, however the OVER is still 6-2 in previous eight matchups.

Cavs and Suns look to do their thang on Mother's Day

Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.

Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC

At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.

“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.

The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.

“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”

Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.

Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.

Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT

It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.

Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.

The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.

San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked.
In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.

On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.

"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.

The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.

Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.

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NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Tuesday's Lineup of Winners (I hope)

Three undistinguished days in a row leaves at 23-13, time to come back with some winners like a Top Trend in hockey or what about Paul hitting Free NBA selection. We have a number of good choices from our article on MLB systems today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- What is wrong with the Cleveland Cavaliers? No sense of urgency, very tentative and their supposed rock solid defense has more holes than in the Arizona/Mexico border.

Isn’t it great their will one NBA game each of the next two days with two series having three or more days off? After the NBA got its ass whipped by 3 to 1 in viewers by the NFL Draft, might be time to rethink this stupid strategy and just keep playing and have The Finals start on June 1 after the sweeps are done on TV.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) See system listed below.

Free Hockey Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 9-0 off a home loss by two goals or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is 8-2 in last 10 NBA wagers and has Orlando in Game 1.

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Boston vs. Cleveland Series Preview

The first conflict of the conference semi-finals will take place in Cleveland, when Boston’s veteran team pays a visit. The Cavaliers are deep and varied team and are still a -125 futures wager to be the NBA champions later in June, while Boston fooled many by not being the old fogies many had believed against Miami and hurried the Heat out of the playoffs. This has been a series where the home teams have ruled the last several years.

(1) Cleveland vs (4) Boston

The waves were crashing on the north side of Lake Erie in Canada, some as high as six feet, as Cleveland fans got the news that nothing was structurally wrong with LeBron James right elbow and they let out a collective “Whew”.

The Cavaliers have a number of edges coming into this series in the personnel department and will look to exploit them. James is the best player in the NBA and plays the type of unselfish basketball that benefits all his teammates. From the Sports Network we find LeBron is only player in NBA history to accumulate at least 1,900 points, 525 rebounds and 475 assists in his first 65 career postseason games.

The Cleveland guards are not spectacular, but don’t need to be. Mo Williams and Anthony Parker mostly position themselves away from the ball on offense for weakside jump shots and three pointers. Antawn Jamison and his array of shots is the extra scorer coach Mike Brown needed when teams double and triple James. Shaquille O'Neal is shadow of his former self, but with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and energetic Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers really have options in the paint.

Since James arrived, this is the deepest team he’s been a part with Delonte West and Jamario Moon also adding their skills. Cleveland’s greatest strength as a team is their defense and opponents have converted just 44.2 percent against them. The Cavs start this series 14-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making 48 percent of their shots.

Boston proved that five players is better than one taking down Miami and faces a more daunting challenge in the Cavs, whom they eliminated in the postseason two years ago. The Grim Reaper had been reported on the team bus for most of the second half of the season, but the Celtics had several different players step up, like Ray Allen in last series.

Rajon Rondo is lightning quick and for the most part more than compensates for a below average jump shot. He rebounds, penetrates into the lane to score or finds open teammate and though not a great one-on-one defender, he use his quickness to makes steals and get into passing lanes. He and Allen have to dominate the Cleveland guards in scoring and rebounding.

Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have visibly slowed and this is area Boston can’t be destroyed or this series moves along swiftly. Along with Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace (a washout), Pierce and KG are going to have to total 50-60 points each game unless the guards play exemplarily. The C’s come in 9-3-1 ATS as playoff underdogs.

If Boston doesn’t play with the needed energy and gumption, this is five game series if James is 90 to 100 percent. The teams divided four contests and the Over was 4-0. Cleveland is 8-1 and 7-2 ATS at Quicken Loans Arena vs. the Celtics, however they are 1-9 (7-3 ATS) in Boston and will have to deal with boisterous crowd and excited old geezers not ready to call it quits.

3Daily Winners Pick- Cleveland (-425) in six over Boston (+355)

Big Boys try to flex NBA muscles

Cleveland and the Los Angeles Lakers earned the top seeds in their respective conferences this season. One team has played deserving of that honor, the other, not so much. Both will hit the hardwood with the same goal in mind, thrusting their will on opponent to either finish them off or to gain the upper hand.

Lake Show in trouble of being cancelled

The Lakers players were telling anyone that would listen their late season doldrums were nothing to be concerned with, once the playoffs began it would be “go” time and they would take care of business.

Oddsmakers weren’t fooled and neither was the public. Los Angeles has a team of mostly self-satisfied players this year, not willing to do what it takes to be great and their visible weakness cannot be masked without all-out effort.

On the season the Lakers shot 45.6 percent from the field, they have not touched that figure once in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is receiving a great of credit for how they are playing defense against the triangle offense, but the fact is the Lakers players are being outworked in trying to run their offense and if say Lamar Odom doesn’t get open on the first option for him to receive the ball, he essentially takes himself out of the play or settles for three-point which is not his specialty.

Odom isn’t the only player with this general indifference, there are many others. It is of little surprise L.A. is 13-25 ATS second half of the season watching this kind of effort.

Kobe Bryant is playing a curious role in this series. Undoubtedly he is more injured that what most know. Other than Game 2 when he scored 39 points with his father in the stands, he at times is not even looking to being offensively assertive and is either trying to get the ball to teammates for them to become more aggressive or he is trying to prove a point by saying “you are either with me or against me” and is disgusted with their lack of performance and is being indignant.

When this has happened in the past Kobe always has an answer, just like this time.

“(Oklahoma City) is a young team that plays hard, that’s playing with house money, so they go in there and let it all hang out,” Bryant said. “It’s a series, it’s a challenge. It’s how playoff basketball should be.” We’ll see he and the Lakers really feel about their situation and are 13-3 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.

Oddsmakers have the Lakers as six-point home favorites with total of 193.5. Los Angeles has won 17 straight games when the series is tied at 2-2 and are 17-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series at any juncture. The Thunder will try to use its growing confidence to pull the upset and have spotted the flaws in Los Angeles and will look to attack once again and are 19-9 ATS as a road underdog this season, losing by less than a point a game (0.9).

This is the late 10:30E conflict on TNT and the Lakers are 11-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.

The end is near

The confidence which the Cleveland Cavaliers play with is flabbergasting. For three quarters of Game 3, Chicago took the action to Cleveland, holding a double digit lead most of the time. The Bulls were the aggressor and it appeared Cavs players were satisfied with their less than full effort. In the four quarter the Cavs came storming back with LeBron James taking over the offense and his teammates knocking down three-pointers, finally succumbing by just two points 108-106, as Chicago made their free throws late.

The most stunning aspect of the close of that contest was the reaction of James and his teammates, not long faces from losing a game they should have won by playing all 48 minutes, but they were smiling, with a almost maniacal grin of “Oh man, we almost got’em, we’ll take care of this later”.

There were no smiles before Game 4 as King James led a tyrant army of mercenaries into the United Center and blew away their Windy City counterparts by 22. Cleveland returns home to end the series and is 18-6 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Cleveland is starting to reap the rewards for trading for Antawn Jamison, who scored 24 points in Game 2. Jamison is highly respected around the league and didn’t come to Cleveland to improve his legacy, but rather to get a championship ring. At 33, Jamison is sensing his basketball mortality.

“This is an opportunity of a lifetime,” he said. “I don’t have another five or 10 years left in this body. The sense of urgency is there, not only with myself but with the rest of these guys. That’s why I think it’s a great fit because we all have the same mentality. We are all trying to accomplish the same thing—right now. We’re not trying to wait until next year or the year after that.” The Cavs have covered 42 of their previous 66 playoff games.

Chicago is also sensing their mortality, about this season. Star guard Derrick Rose missed practice Monday to undergo an MRI on his right ankle and forward Luol Deng sat out with a sore knee and calf. The Bulls are once again a dozen points underdog and hope to hit enough shots to improve on 19-10 ATS record revenging a same season loss.

The Cavaliers will look to polish this series off and most likely face Boston and are 17-7 UNDER after winning by 20 or more points, with average margin of victory 13.9 points for this 8:00E TNT broadcast.

Coaching matters during NBA Playoffs

For a lot of people, even sports bettors, they believe the NBA is a highly paid pickup game (read any number of forums), lacking the understanding of what goes into being a professional basketball coach. This is particularly true this time of year when coaches can pour all their energy into one opponent and have more time between games to assess each situation. Here is a look at what coaching has meant in three Sunday series.

Cleveland at Chicago 3:35E ABC

One of unappreciated aspects of professional basketball is coaching and game study. The head coach and assistants break down tape after each contest trying to find ways to improve or take advantage of defensive weakness.

In the NBA, Cleveland is well known for locking down opponents in halfcourt sets. Chicago coach Vinny Del Negro decided to push the ball up the floor on rebounds and made baskets for Game 3, freeing up shooters before the Cavaliers defense was in place. By getting into offense sooner, this allowed cleaner looks for Bulls players and only a Cavs three-point barrage and Chicago’s missed free throws late in the game made the contest interesting.

Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog and is 19-10 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread and needs Kirk Henrich as three-point scorer in the offense. His long range bombs open up the middle for Joakim Noah and Luol Deng to operate.

Del Negro’s other decision was to man-up LeBron James with different defenders and let him get as much as he could earn, without the other players leaving their men for open three-point attempts. This is something James loves to do, have opposing players draw to him like magnet and he skillfully finds open three-point shooter. Chicago stuck with their plan and moved to 5-2 SU and ATS at the “Madness on Madison” location against Cleveland.

It’s now coach Mike Brown’s time to make adjustments and see if he can send the Bulls to 8-21 ATS at home after covering two or more contests.

Dallas at San Antonio 7:05E TNT

They don’t have a NHL team in San Antonio, but Manu Ginobili showed the toughness of hockey player, coming back from broken nose to help the Spurs win 94-90 as 3.5-point favorites. Ginobili’s warrior attitude was on display scoring 11 of his 15 points in the fourth quarter.

The other parts of San Antonio’s three amigos, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, scored 48 points in the victory. Duncan turns 34 years old today and has a trio of games over 20 points and Parker appears to be relishing coming off the bench just like Ginobili used to do. The Spurs have covered eight of last 10 as home favorites.

Dirk Nowitzki overcame coach Greg Popovich’s move of limiting his looks after Dirk’s screens on and off the ball. In Game 2, the Spurs doubled on-ball screens and sent another defender at Nowitzki when he tried to pick and pop. Nowitzki thwarted that strategy as Dallas offense featured more isolation action and used his patented jab-step to total 35 points on 13-23 shooting.

The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS with a day between games and coach Rick Carlisle has explaining to do for benching Caron Butler in the second half. He said J.J. Barea gave them more penetration against San Antonio, (Barea did key a 17-0 run in the third quarter) however he could not replace the 19.5 points Butler has averaged in first two games. Butler had grand total of two points Friday night.

“Coach just goes with whoever is working that night and we went with a three-guard lineup,” Nowitzki said. “It was working for a while but we didn’t seem to have enough down the stretch.”

Ginobili is expected to play and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Spurs as 2.5-point favorites, with total of 193. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite and Dallas is 10-4 ATS as postseason underdog of 4.5 or less and 12-4 OVER as playoff pooch. The home team is on 7-3-1 ATS move.

Denver at Utah 9:35E TNT

The Nuggets defense continues to be a non-factor and it is evident this team is adrift. Despite being severely short-handed, Utah has averaged over 110 points per game in this series, shooting over 50 percent.

Utah’s motion offense usually sets up a number of good looks at the bucket, however coach Jerry Sloan has noticed how slow and lazy (no other way to describe it) Denver has been on weakside defensive rotations, allowing the Jazz to run what appears to be a layup drill at times.
Utah is 21-10-2 ATS against team that permitted 100 or more points in last outing and Deron Williams is acting like its Thanksgiving, carving up Denver’s defense. Utah finished with 27 assists and just nine turnovers.

The Nuggets lack of urgency is unsettling and speaks volumes what George Karl means to this team. The Jazz are the hungrier team and Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine road excursions.

Utah is a two-point pick and is 19-6-1 ATS when favored team by 4.5 or less and is 6-0-1 UNDER off outright win. Denver will attempt to even the series and is 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more. They are 6-2 UNDER in last eight visits to Salt Lake City.

Three NBA teams need tasty home cookin'

Over the next two days, the series switch to new locales with the home town fans clamoring for success from the guys in the short pants. A couple of the teams are in desperate straits and need to make something happen or they can start making summer vacation plans. One other squad doesn’t have its best player however can take the series lead with a victory before its loud and proud fans.

Cleveland at Chicago 7:00E TNT

The Bulls played the Cavaliers even for three quarters, unfortunately professional basketball is a four quarters contest and for those that can’t stand the NBA, saying you only have to watch the last quarter, they were nodding their head with pride about Game 2.

Chicago was tied after three quarters but was outscored 35-25 in the final 12 minutes, thanks to LeBron James doing his best Mariano Rivera impression as the closer. (James is well-known Yankees fan) James scored 15 of his 40 points in the final stanza, ruining the Bulls upset bid.
“They call me the closer every time I come in the fourth quarter,” James said. “It’s my time to put the game away or do what I do best and that’s try to close the game the right way.” Cleveland is 14-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

Chicago will receive the energy from its home fans and the Bulls better start rampage from the opening tip, since nobody expects the Bulls to win four of the next five games. One Chi-Town player enduring himself to the locals is Joakim Noah, whose been a force on both ends of the floor and talking a little trash about Cleveland. He’s more than ready for next assignment. (Note picture- Noah not fazed by Zydrunas Ilgauskas Lithuanian mind-probe)

We can't get discouraged," Noah said. "They did what they were supposed to do. We'll have our fans ready to go for the next game and we'll be ready to go on Thursday."

The Bulls are a four-point underdog, with total of 193 and are 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses. Chicago is 13-4 UNDER playing with two days rest this season.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E TNT

This is all fun and new for the Thunder, being in the postseason for the first time as members from the Sooner State. Oklahoma City lost both games to the defending champion L. A. Lakers, but they are far from discouraged.

"I think that our offense was phenomenal," Kevin Durant said. "Our energy on a defensive end was phenomenal. Of course you cannot play perfect defense an entire game. We got a lot of offensive, rebounds and we played hard.

Of course the next step in the progression is actually winning a game and the Thunder gives the impression they are well-equipped to do so. OKC is 14-5 ATS off a road loss and Bookmaker.com has installed them as 3.5-point favorites.

Thunder fans have enjoyed this young team’s rise all year and view this as the beginning of something much bigger and can hardly be disappointed no matter the outcome.

The Lakers were pushed to the end in Game 2, winning 95-92 as 5.5-point favorites, held to 37.5 percent shooting. Kobe Bryant returned to his usual self scoring 39 points, making 13 of 15 from the charity stripe. It’s a rare sight to see Los Angeles as an underdog, especially in a 1 vs 8 matchup and they are 33-18 ATS as a pooch and 10-2 UNDER in this role.

"We're going home to our crowd, which is gonna give us a lot of energy and we're gonna be ready to play," Jeff Green said Tuesday night. His team is 14-2 ATS after a contest with 15 or less assists this season.

Keep an eye on the total of 191.5 with Oklahoma City 12-2 UNDER at the Ford Center off a cover where they lost the game SU as an underdog.

Phoenix at Portland 10:00E NBA TV

Portland looked every bit like the underdog they were supposed to be, being man-handled by Phoenix 119-90 in Game 2 as 8.5-point underdogs. The news however is good on two fronts, a loss is still a loss whether it’s by one point or 29 and the Trailblazers are returning home.

We got a win," Portland guard Andre Miller said. "You don't want to lose like that any time, but we still are motivated. This is a seven-game series. (The Suns) did their job tonight, but we got a game, and it's a series. Now we have to go and try to protect our home court." Portland is 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.

Phoenix can take pride in understanding and doing what it takes to win as they showed in last outing. They repeatedly ran the floor for easy transition buckets, forced Portland into missing shots with greater defensive intensity (38.2 percent) and spread the ball around with Jason Richardson and Grant Hill being key figures in the victory.

“We were just more aggressive getting the ball up the floor and moving bodies around so they weren’t set,” Steve Nash said, “and they weren’t able to zone it up as well.” That raised the Suns record to 14-4 ATS playing against a team with 60-70 winning percentage this campaign.

Game 3 opened as Pick and Portland has moved to one point underdog with 7-19 ATS record at the Rose Garden after a loss by 10 points or more.

Home teams seek 2-0 edge in NBA Playoffs

Cleveland and Denver opened impressively on their own home courts in winning and covering Game 1 of the new playoff year. Each club will look to take a decided edge on Monday night, before packing for the road for the next two contests. Will each be the able to stir up another winner and beat the oddsmaker to boot? This doubleheader is on TNT starting at 8 Eastern Monday.

Play like a champion

The Cavaliers closed as 12-point point home favorites against Chicago and almost frittered away a 22-point lead before closing the deal. The Bulls got within seven points in the fourth quarter, before being visibility spent and falling 99-83.

Cleveland appeared bored after building humongous lead, yet is quite confident in their abilities, this year more than ever.

“We," LeBron James said, "have the look of a champion."

He might be right and the oddsmakers certainly think so making them the betting choice for futures wager to be NBA champions. The Cavs remade roster is back at full strength with Shaquille O'Neal, Antawn Jamison and Anthony Parker. Cleveland looked bigger, stronger and had more options coming off the bench than Chicago and is 14-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

The Bulls can take heart they outscored the Cavaliers by a point after the first 12 minutes and realistically had no reason to believe they could sweep Cleveland at Quicken Loans Arena.
“We can't wait to play," Derrick Rose said after scoring 28 points and handing out 10 assists. "I know I can't. This is something I live for. I think about it every minute of the day, playing against the best team in the NBA."

The loss ended Chicago’s brief three game winning streak, however they are 13-5 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com took into consideration the Bulls will have turnaround revenge and opened them as Game 2 underdogs of 10.5-points, with total of 191 and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss since Mar. 12. Chicago is 18-8 UNDER revenging same season loss this year.

Cleveland knows how to turn up the defensive intensity and is 13-5 ATS after two or more Under’s this season and continues to rule the first round with 13-3 ATS mark. The Cavs are 10-2 SU and ATS at home vs. Da Bulls in this battle of Great Lakes cities and is 9-1 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite this season.

Carmelo chewy good for the Nuggets

Denver has been floundering for some time, but once the playoff lights came on it was show time for their two brightest stars. Carmelo Anthony scored a playoff-high 42 points in leading the Nuggets to 126-113 victory. Guard J.R. Smith is like a Maserati, able to go from zero to 100 MPH in seconds.

Smith broke open a 90-90 tie game with four 3-point baskets, scoring 18 of his 20 points in the final stanza. "It felt good to get on, period," Smith said. "I couldn't hit anything. I didn't have a rhythm. It felt good to start making shots."

Denver scored 38 points in the last quarter and Anthony and Smith combined for 30 of them. That raised the Nuggets record in 14-3 ATS in playoff games since last season.

Utah has to feel the basketball gods are conspiring against them. Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko re-injured his strained left calf in practice Thursday and won't play in the series, which is catastrophic, since he was the one player on Utah roster that could at least contain Anthony.

Jazz center Mehmet Okur aggravated his left Achilles' tendon injury in the first half, slipping on a wet spot on the floor and undergoes MRI. "I felt something pop," said Okur. (Now out for the season) Utah is 3-12 ATS as visitor revenging a road loss the last two years.

Offense ruled in the series opener, with Denver shooting 57.1 percent and Utah at 54.7 percent, however too many players had wide open looks, which was both a function of exceptional ball movement and shoddy defense.

Utah is a seven-point underdog, with its roster shrinking and will have to continue to shoot the ball well and play defense with greater urgency. At the very least the Jazz are capable of covering the number and are 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.

Denver has shown a killer-instinct when leading in a series and is 8-0 ATS in the postseason in this precise situation. The Nuggets are now is 22-8 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs and are 44-7 SU when they have 20 or more assists this campaign.

NBA Eastern Conference Series Outlook

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

3DW Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4) Boston vs (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

NBA PLAYOFF PRIMER - Opening Round Betting Strategies

It’s never too early or late to prepare for the playoffs. Like preparing for a marathon, it’s best to put ourselves into the best possible condition we can as we make a season ending dash for the cash.

With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say…

NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75% of time (33-95 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

Worse, they are 6-29 SU and 10-22-3 ATS in the post-season with a losing record in opening round games, including 3-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 46-28-2 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 34-19-2 ATS, including 24-10-1 ATS if off a loss of 5 or more points – and 15-3-2 ATS when laying five or more points in this role.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

DOUBLE DIGIT DOGMA

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 25-14-1 ATS in this role, including 21-9-1 ATS if they took 8 or more points the previous game.

These same guys are also 17-6 ATS off a playoff loss when taking double digits from a non-division foe, including 15-3 ATS against sub .795 opponents.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 4-25 SU and 6-23 ATS away from home. They are also 13-31-2 ATS as dogs on their way to the canvas.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS. Last year Detroit was counted out at Cleveland, as well as New Orleans at Denver.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2010 NBA playoffs. I’ll be back soon with additional insight on Round Two.

By Marc Lawrence • PLAYBOOK.com

Bulls and Nuggets need wins

The NBA teams that reside in Windy City and Rocky Mountains are feeling the pinch with seven days left in the regular season. The Chicago Bulls were once comfortably in the playoff picture, second in the Central Division and marching merrily along as a young team on the rise. But even in the Eastern Conference, 10-game losing streaks can really impact your position in the standings (unless you’re New Jersey) and the Bulls season imploded like another Illinois political scandal.

Chicago (37-40, 39-36-2 ATS) fell below motoring Milwaukee in the division and all the way out of the top eight slots in the East, trailing Toronto by one game, despite coming back to win six of last nine SU and ATS.

Chicago desperately wants to sign Dwayne Wade as max free agent, which is why they traded John Salmons to the Bucks, taking on the expiring contracts of Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander. While this vision might work towards the future, it did nothing for Chicago in the present.

Since the Feb. 18 trade, Da Bulls are 10-14 and 13-11 ATS with Salmons up the road on I-94 in Sudsville. Milwaukee, well a consistent NBA guard who can score in the backcourt has elevated the Bucks to 19-6, 18-5-2 ATS since that fateful day.

Chicago has to face Cleveland (61-17, 38-38-2 ATS) next, just the best and deepest team in the NBA. The one edge the Bulls could have is the Cavaliers have set the cruise control and are resting various players until the regular season is finished.

Cleveland tried to help Chicago, taking down Toronto 113-101 as 5.5-points favorites, but the wully-Bullies couldn’t handle a depleted Bucks squad and lost by five at United Center. The Cavs are 24-11-1 ATS after a double digit triumph, while Chicago is 6-0 ATS after a SU defeat.

The Bulls are 2.5-point favorites and have covered four of last five in Chi-Town against LeBron and the fellas and this Central showdown is on TNT which starts a bit after 8:00 Eastern.

Nuggets not playing tasty basketball

Denver (51-27, 34-39-5 ATS) has gone from sole possession division leader and second seed in the West to fifth in the conference.

The Nuggets have had their fair share of frightful opponents, yet that doesn’t explain their 6-6 record and frigid 2-9-1 ATS spread mark in last 12 contests.

The single common denominator is the absence of George Karl who last attended a game on March 16. While Karl is above average coach, he’s not thought of as elite, nonetheless his voice it seems is the one Denver players responds to.

According to the Denver Post, Karl has lost 25 pounds, has difficulty speaking and may need to be fed through a tube for up to six more months, that doesn’t sound like person that could be returning to the bench anytime in the near future sadly.

That leaves it up to the team leaders like Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to be role models and max their abilities for the Nuggets to be victorious.

Denver hosts the Los Angeles Lakers (55-22, 32-43-2 ATS) after facing Oklahoma City last night. The Nuggets are 32-6 at the Pepsi Center (18-19-1 ATS), winning by 9.6 points per game, which is the third best home record in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-16 (16-22-1 ATS) on the road and Denver is 7-0 ATS against clubs with winning visitor’s record and Bookmaker.com has them as two-point favorites with total of 204.

One extra large negative for Carmelo’s crew is recent 1-7-1 ATS mark when playing with no rest and they are 8-2 UNDER, as offense has been stalling with Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson on the sidelines.

To move back up in the standings, Denver needs this contest which starts at approximately 10:35 Eastern and the other three remaining games on the schedule to improve conference position for the playoffs.

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

Easter Bunny brings it for Easter Sunday in NBA

Four teams very familiar with one another are set to face off against each other in NBA action this Easter Sunday. Cleveland has all but wrapped up the league’s best record and wants to continue playing well headed into the playoffs. They will face Boston who is search of finding their way. Immediately following, the surging San Antonio Spurs try to lasso the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center. Enjoy the Easter ham, enjoy the games.

Cleveland at Boston 1:00E ABC

The Atlantic Division champion Boston Celtics (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS) close out a six-game homestand which has been dismal to say the least. Having won nine of 13 games coming off a three game road trip, Boston started an extended stay at home dumping Denver by 14 points and secured a non-cover win over Sacramento by eight as 11-point favorites.

Last Sunday the Celtics were in position to prove they had gotten over three month slide of being incredibly ordinary, facing a hot San Antonio team and they were vanquished 94-73 by the Spurs. That loss must have left an emotional scar or Boston really isn’t anything but average, losing games to Oklahoma City and Houston on their own floor since, which left their coach to say this after Rockets defeat.

"There are so many things I could point out, but I won't," Doc Rivers said. "We played like a high school team at times, as far as the way our thought process was."

The C’s are just 23-15 at home, with a pediculous spread record of 11-26-1 ATS. Chances are this is not their last home loss.

In comes Cleveland with the best record in the NBA at 60-16 (37-37-2 ATS), having won 17 of 19 (10-8-1 ATS) since Feb. 21 and in high gear heading towards the playoffs. The Cavaliers almost traded J.J. Hickson to Phoenix and right now they are thrilled they did not. Coach Mike Brown is defensive-minded and gets wacky when his team doesn’t perform on that end of the floor.

Lately, he has used Hickson as defensive stopper late in games and he has come through, grabbing career-high 16 rebounds on Friday in the Cavaliers win over Atlanta and working a trap with Jamario Moon on Milwaukee’s John Salmons that forced key turnover to help preserve victory earlier in the week. Cleveland is 26-12 and 21-16-1 ATS outside of Ohio.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point road favorites with total of 193.5 on this Easter Sunday clash and the Cavs are 12-5 ATS on this day of the week and 6-2 UNDER in last eight games. Boston is proving more and more they can’t compete with the better teams and are 7-18-1 ATS if the opponent has record of .600 or higher. The Celtics are 29-11 OVER off a loss.

The favorite in this matchup is 5-1 ATS and the previous five contests in Boston are 4-1 OVER.

San Antonio at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

Despite trying circumstances, San Antonio (46-29, 39-35-1 ATS) has flourished. Playing without Tony Parker, other players like Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan missing a game here and there and schedule back-loaded with games, the Spurs have managed to win 15 of last 20 (14-6 ATS). San Antonio is in seventh spot in the hostile Western Conference, but is only one loss behind Oklahoma City and two behind Denver and Utah, and can move up possibly if they continue to win.

Off the 112-100 triumph over Orlando, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS after crossing the century mark.
The Lakers (55-21, 32-42-2 ATS) have not played very good basketball, with an 8-6 (5-9 ATS) record since Mar. 4, before facing Utah two days ago. The Jazz bring out the best in Los Angeles, as Kobe Bryant and teammates handed Utah their eighth straight loss at the Staples Center 106-92 as 4.5-point favorites.

L.A. has played almost arrogantly bored of late, more going thru the motions waiting for the playoffs to begin, however playing against other quality teams like Utah in the West brought back the intensity and it will be interesting to see if they play with same passion against the Spurs. The Lakers haven’t covered back to back games since Feb. 6-10, when they did so three consecutive times.

The Lakers are a six-point favorite with total of 194, but are just 3-9 ATS on previous dozen home tilts and are 20-7-1 UNDER off a win by double digits. San Antonio is perfect against the number if their opponent scored 100 or more points in last contest at 8-0 ATS and is 10-4-1 UNDER on Sunday’s.

The Lakers are on 7-1 ATS run against the Greg Popovich’s Spurs and the UNDER is 5-0 in L.A.

NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

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Top NBA Monday Systems

Changes will be occurring in Charlotte as an ownership bid has been made, headed by one of the NBA’s best players ever. Tonight’s question does that lift the burden off the Bobcats to finally take down Dallas for the first time ever? The numbers point to no, at least as far as system plays are concerned, as we review the possibilities on an NBA Monday. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Dallas (+2, 192) at Charlotte

The Bobcats will officially have a new ownership group led by Michael Jordan once the league approves them. Until then, the next order of business is doing something they have never done, beat Dallas. Charlotte is 0-11 (4-6-1 ATS) against the Mavericks since joining the league and faces a club that has won seven in a row and is not in a favorable position tonight. Play against teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher, since they are 27-6 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (-4, 196) at Philadelphia

The Magic have been playing their usual solid defense, holding last six opponents to 95.5 points per game, however the offense has been a little stagnant, averaging 97 points a contest in last five tries compared to season average of 101. Look to play against (7-24 ATS, L5Y) teams after five or more consecutive Unders, who are a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.

New York (+11.5, 211) at Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won three in a row, shooting over 50 percent as a team, while the Knicks have lost nine of 10 and dream about tendering LeBron James a contract in the off-season. For now, play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, off two or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. This situation is 61-22 since 1996.

San Antonio (-2.5, 195) at New Orleans

At times this season, it’s been almost hard to believe this is the San Antonio Spurs coached by Greg Popovich. Take their last four games in which they have allowed 109 or more points three times. Nevertheless, teams like the Spurs who are road favorites and ordinary defensive team (92-98 PPG), taking on poorer defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 47-18 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread this season.

Portland (+1, 195) at Memphis

Portland concludes their five game road trip in the mid-south off a mauling of division partner Minnesota 110-91. Given the total on this contest, look to play Under on road teams when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. In the last five seasons, this system is 72-33.

Denver (+2.5, 221) at Phoenix

Both teams suffered defeats against conference rivals yesterday, ending winning streaks. Phoenix is 22-7 SU at Planet Orange (home court) winning by eight points per game and appears to be in the better spot. Home favorites having successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 20-3 ATS the last three years.

Utah (-6, 202) at L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles has lost three of four to the Jazz at home, including Feb. 9 matchup 109-99 as five point underdogs. This places the Clips in a negative predicament since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season, are 9-30 ATS.

Cavs visit Beantown tonight

The Cleveland Cavaliers ended their three game losing streak with a 105-95 non-cover over New Orleans Tuesday, next up is to end losing skid that goes back years. Cleveland has made nine trips to Boston and has come up on the short end of the score each time. The last time the Cavs (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won at TD Garden was Jan. 3, 2007 and they are 6-3 ATS in those visits, which is little consolation unless you are a sports bettor.

There has been a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland’s recent slide and the fact they are 1-6 ATS in last seven, but a certain high profile Cavs player tries to put things into perspective.

“There’s 82 games in the regular season. You’ll have ups and downs,” said LeBron James. “We’ve had way more ups than downs. We have the best record in the Eastern Conference and one of the best records in the league. You can go two or three games where you don’t win a game. That’s not our worries.”

Cleveland’s recent struggles have had to do with defense. Coach Mike Brown’s squad prior to last game had allowed 100 or more points in five of previous six contests. Before this, the Cavs surrendered that many points over a span of 26 games, showing the decline in effort. They will seek reversal and are 8-4 ATS off a victory.

Like anything in life, it could be worse, like being a loyal Boston Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS)bettor. Boston has won four of last five, but for Celtics backers, betting the C’s is similar to getting a hot stock tip that the Hummer is coming back strong, with 8-18-1 ATS record since Dec. 27.

General Manager Danny Ainge was being barbequed in Boston until he made the bold moves to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, which restored Celtics pride and brought them a championship. This would have never happened had Boston lost the top pick in the draft in the lottery, which would have brought Kevin Durant and the Celtics would more likely resemble Oklahoma City, than the current model.

Like most GM’s in the NBA, do one thing right and you have a free pass for years. Ainge thought Rasheed Wallace would be good fit for the green and white and he probably more than any other player exemplifies what is wrong with Boston this season and in part explains why they are 3-8 ATS off a SU win.

Wallace isn’t close to being the defense player he was even two years ago when his skills were diminishing. He was supposed to add scoring in the paint, however as 82games.com points out, over 80 percent of his shots come outside the lane and like in recent years he believes he’s Ray Allen deep, despite shooting 28.4 percent beyond the arc. One more thing, guard Rajon Rondo averages more rebounds per game than Wallace (4.4 vs 4.2).

No question injuries have played a part in Boston’s season and Paul Pierce is doubtful for this evening. The Celtics are 6-18-1 ATS at home and 1-7-1 ATS with a day between contests.
Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point faves and they are 7-3 ATS with one day of rest and they are 5-1-1 OVER this month after scoring 100 or more points. Boston has covered 17 of last 25 Thursday assignments and is 20-8 UNDER on this day of the week going back even further.

This confrontation of Eastern powers begins just after 8:00 in East time zone on TNT and the home team is 16-1 SU, though just 8-8-1 ATS in previous 17 meetings.

Viewable Sunday Afternoon NBA Action

Four division leaders will collide on ABC this afternoon, kind of a playoff primer if you will. The first is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, with Cleveland traveling south to Orlando to try and continue to prove to their loss was a mistake and they are indeed the better team. Later, Boston wraps up their five game road trip in the Mile High City. Two top tilts, lots of wagering options.

I must punish you for past misdeeds

The Cleveland Cavaliers (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) lost to Orlando in six games in the East Finals and didn’t sit by idly feeling sorry for itself. They were no match for the Magic and Dwight Howard and picked up the one available big man that could be difference-maker in Shaquille O'Neal. The Cavs with LeBron James, have the best record in the NBA and have faced the Magic twice this year, beating them each time while covering the spread.

For the Cavaliers, that wasn’t not enough, which is why they made the trade for forward Antawn Jamison, who can play the jazzy named "stretch 4" position, which is a power forward who can stretch the defense out to the three-point line. (Pretty cool) The Cleveland front office believes once Leon Powe is activated, they have the necessary parts to not only beat Orlando, but take the whole enchilada. The Cavs arrive in central Florida 19-9 and 16-11-1 ATS on the road.

The Magic players acknowledge Cleveland up the ante. "They made themselves better," said Rashard Lewis said after hearing about the trade. "They wanted to match up with me, or down to me, but I'm not their matchup problem. It's the big fellow (Dwight Howard) over there." Lewis averaged 18.3 points and shot 48.4 percent from 3-point range in the conference final against Cleveland last spring.

However, just because you’re comfortable does mean it’s a done deal and Orlando (38-19, 26-26-4 ATS) is still the defending East champs. "They already were the best team in the East, by far, and this makes them stronger," said Magic forward Matt Barnes. "But we're not going to hold our heads down. We're still confident we can beat them."

Orlando is 21-6 at home (13-13-1 ATS) and plays into double revenge and is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 195. The Magic as a less than magical 8-20 ATS off a double digit home loss which they suffered to Dallas (95-85) on Friday and are 22-8 UNDER off a loss. Cleveland is usually an angry club off a whipping (like they felt at Charlotte 110-93) and is 22-6 ATS off a double digit defeat.

This matinee starts at 1:00 Eastern and the Cavaliers are 10-4-1 OVER since Jan. 16.

Denver a Mile High Headache

The Nuggets are fairly perky again after trudging into Cleveland and ending the Cavs 13-game winning streak. Carmelo Anthony upstaged James at crunch time, scoring his 39th and 40th points to break a 116-116 tie with a jumper with 1.9 seconds remaining in overtime to give Denver the win at Cleveland on Thursday night.

"A lot of people got some good pictures out of that moment," Anthony said. "I wanted the ball. I made the shot." Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS) followed that up with dud at Washington, losing by 10 and return home where they are 23-5 (14-13-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center.

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) checks into Denver 3-1 on road trip, looking to return home on a very positive note. The Celtics have been scuffling plenty the last two months (12-13 SU and 8-16-1 ATS), nevertheless are showing signs of returning to earlier form with 6-2 record in February.

Boston hopes to get something immediately out of their newest player Nate Robinson. "He gives us speed, No. 1," coach Doc Rivers said. "He gives us another ball-handler. And he gives us a guy that can have a night. When guys go flat, he's a guy that can create shots without a play (or) after a play has broken down, on a ball swing. The other thing he does is gives us defense. He can pressure the ball. We can use lineups with (Rajon) Rondo and Nate at times against certain teams. The ball pressure alone will be phenomenal."

Denver is a four-point favorite with total of 198 and is 7-1 ATS off a spread failure and 5-1 UNDER in previous six with a day off between games. Boston is a boastful 51-22-1 as a visiting dog and is 8-1 UNDER in last nine, including six in a row.

This encounter is slated for 3:30 Eastern start with the home team 7-2 ATS.