Ten College Football Bets to Consider in 2009

When the college football schedules were officially released, it is a terrific time to go through the various leagues and forecast what the potentially lucrative spots are to profit from. The factors may include revenge, scheduling and look-aheads. Here is ten specific dates on the calendar which are worthy of consideration for wagers.

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year’s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach’s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in last 11, add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. Coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and be better prepared. Florida State isn’t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense and buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams they lost to. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, emotionally worn-out Wake doesn’t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won’t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season’s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won’t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with pang of first loss, Tulsa ran into hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in 40-point loss. (That’s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa’s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they are off huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less last season and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in 13-10 loss. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Cater Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in The Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of last season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, out-gaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville’s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at present location, he needs his team to watch film of last season for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ‘Ville for granted, looking ahead to season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for right to play in C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn’t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.

Betting the ACC Tournament

The 56th annual Atlantic Coast Conference tournament is about ready to tip off, as it leaves the Carolina region for a trip to Atlanta, with Georgia Tech playing host. This has been the premier event in postseason college basketball for years and 2009 should be no different. North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite at -175 to cut down the nets Sunday afternoon; however a cloud of doubt has arisen as junior guard Ty Lawson is questionable for the opener and possibly for the whole tournament with a badly swollen right toe according to coach Roy Williams. Smart bettors know it is Lawson, not Tyler Hansbrough that makes the Tar Heels play most efficiently. Here is a game by game look at the opening round.

Miami vs Virginia Tech 12 Eastern

Miami (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS in ACC) starts the festivities with Virginia Tech in the tournament opener in a 8 vs 9 matchup and are favored by 3.5-points at Bookmaker.com, having won three of last four contests. The Hurricanes lean on two-time All-ACC selection Jack McClinton. The junior guard sets the table for Miami offense and leads the conference in three point accuracy at 46.4 percent. If the games are close, McClinton is a big reason why the Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last two seasons as he converts 88.5 percent from the charity stripe.

Virginia Tech (7-9, 6-10 ATS) fell apart late in the season, losers of six of last seven, including three in a row. The Hokies have been burying backers as well, on 2-7 ATS skid, as they are not receiving enough contributions from leading scorers A.D. Vassallo and point guard Malcolm Delaney. If Virginia Tech is going to move to 17-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick, their scoring tandem must come through.

The winner advances to same time slot Friday to face top seeded North Carolina.

Georgia Tech vs Clemson 2:20 Eastern

Georgia Tech was 2-14 (6-10 ATS) in ACC action and earned the last seed. The Yellow Jackets were a rambling wreck with too many young players in a ruthless league. Georgia Tech lost eight of last nine and is 5-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season. The Jackets were beaten twice by Clemson and failed to cover the spread either time.

Clemson (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) could well have had today off; unfortunately, they lost three of last four, which lowered them to fifth seed. The Tigers didn’t have any teeth at crunch time in those losses and their defensive weakness is guarding opponents once they break their press, surrendering far too many easy baskets once broken down. Clemson went to the title game last year and will seek that magic elixir that got them their in 2008. “We're going to go back to practice and hopefully try to catch fire and get back to the championship," said forward Trevor Booker.

Clemson is a 9.5-point favorite, however is just 10-25 ATS on the road after allowing 80 points or more. The winner moves on to take on Florida State.

N.C. State vs Maryland 7 Eastern

Both the Wolfpack and the Terrapins arrive at the Georgia Dome with seat belts attached and treys in upright position after a bumpy close to the season. N.C. State (6-10, 10-5-1 ATS) lost four of last six ACC affairs, including one to Maryland. The Wolfpack are the 10th seed and are hoping for some of the same magic they made two seasons ago. In 2007, they were a No.10 seed and caught fire, riding it all the way to ACC title tilt, before losing to North Carolina. The club from Raleigh is listed as 1.5-point underdogs and is 7-19 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two campaigns.

Maryland (7-9, 8-8 ATS) was having a very average season until they caught everyone’s attention in upsetting North Carolina at home in overtime 88-85 on Feb. 21. Since the upset they are 1-3 SU and ATS. The Terps wouldn’t even be a seventh seed except for point guard Greivis Vasquez, having frequently been asked to carry the load for a team light on talent in a conference of this quality. The junior will on occasion come unglued and make bad choices, like in the last game loss at Virginia, with questionable judgments when the game was on the line. Maryland has won and covered last four games against N.C. State, however is mere 3-10 ATS on neutral courts.

Whoever survives has second seeded Wake Forest on tap.

Virginia vs Boston College 9:20 Eastern

In the first day finale, Boston College is 4.5-point choice to surpass 11th seeded Virginia. The Eagles look solid for making the field of 65 on Sunday, but one more win at least only gives a greater level of comfort. Boston College (9-7, 7-9 ATS) already has resume building wins over North Carolina and Duke. Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders give the Eagles exceptional backcourt play and B.C. is 25-10 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent of their three-point shots or worse.

It has been another dismal campaign for Virginia with just four wins (8-8 ATS) in the ACC. The Cavaliers are only 9-23 the last two seasons in conference play, their worst two year stretch in a decade. Virginia is only 1-9 away from home (6-4 ATS) and coach Dave Leitao is trying to keep positive attitude. “Obviously you're the one that drives the bus, and so a lot of times it kind of starts and ends with you. It's difficult, but at the same point in time, it doesn't shake both my confidence and my will of thought to know that we're doing the right thing and we're going in the right direction."

It’s rather easy to make a case, Virginia is the worst team in the ACC, finishing last in the in field-goal percentage (41.8) and field-goal percentage defense (43.8). To complete the inept trifecta, they were last in three point shooting at 31.1 percent. Based on how things have been playing out in Charlottesville, it doesn’t take a degree from Virginia to understand 17-30 spread record in March.

The victor draws Duke Friday night.

Two Sunday System Plays -88.9 Percent

Slightly disappointed didn’t get the 3-0 day we were looking for, however can never complain about 2-1. Today’s Top System yields TWO plays from an 88.9 situation. Sunday means ACC action and we have a sharp angle that is 92.3 percent. Sal is bubbling hot in college hoops, watch for his Top Play today. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 or more points, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent) after 15+ games, with the favorite averaging 14 or fewer turnovers and the underdog an average pressure defensive team, forcing 14.5-17.5 turnovers. The idea behind this spectacular 24-3 ATS system is the favorite is unlikely to be effected by dog’s defense and the points the underdog might normally earn of turnovers won’t materialize and the road favorite covers. Play On Illinois and Akron today.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Clemson Tigers are 12-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection is en fuego after 6-1 Saturday, taking him to 34-9, 79 percent in last 43 plays in betting college basketball. He's expecting Northwestern to overcome disappointment earlier this week and take down Michigan.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Battle of Unbeatens in ACC Action

It’s hard to remember such an important contest in the ACC, with neither Duke nor North Carolina involved. This is unquestionably the biggest game of the weekend and your casual fan might not even know the significance, matching two unbeaten teams this far into the season. It’s another stern test for Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS), traveling south to Clemson. Though, ranked number two in the polls, the Demon Deacons could put the college basketball world on notice that this team is for real.

Wake Forest a youthful bunch, nonetheless are heavy on talent with the likes of sophomore Jeff Teague, L.D. Willliams and Al-Farouq Aminu. Earlier this month they ended BYU’s 53-game home winning streak and left an impression on their competitors. "Wake Forest's speed and quickness is off the charts," BYU guard Jimmer Fredette said.

They followed that up with a convincing 94-87 win over North Carolina. In that game the overpowered the Tar Heels in the paint, outscoring them 44-30. The offense can come from many areas and they continue to be one of the most accurate shooting teams in the country at over 51 percent.

Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS) starting fast isn’t news; it’s what they do from here on that matters. Clemson is 16-0 for the second time in three seasons and a win away from tying its best-ever start set in 2006-07. That season they fell part, closing 8-11. Last year was marginally better, opening 12-1 and finishing 24-10, making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade.
“We’re just playing ball. We’re just playing like we’re having fun,” said senior K.C. Rivers. “We’re enjoying what we do like before we were ranked, so we’re going to continue to do that.”

As compared to previous Tigers' teams, this group might be able to handle prosperity, with senior leaders Rivers and center Raymond Sykes. If guard play is the most important aspect of college basketball, the edge has to go Demontez Stitt and Terrence Oglesby of Clemson. Each brings a unique talent and they work together in harmony for a team that is 35-16 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game.

Bookmaker.com has established Clemson as 2.5-point home favorites.

This will be Clemson’s first game against a ranked opponent and the Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are also 1-34 against Top 5 foes over the last 12 seasons, including 17 straight losses.

Wake Forest has enjoyed success at Clemson with 8-2 ATS mark and six outright triumphs.

This game will be televised regionally on ABC starting at 3:30 Eastern.

Mid-Season College Hoops Report Card

Students are coming back after holiday break. Holiday Tournaments are over with. And the non-conference schedules are wrapping up. Let’s take a gander at the landscape of college basketball this first week of January, 2009.

There are only four (make it three) undefeated teams left with the recent defeat of the Connecticut Huskies at the hands of Pittsburgh and Boston College slaying North Carolina on the Tar Heels’ home court. Sitting with 14 wins against zero losses are the Redbirds of Illinois State (until last night) and the Clemson Tigers. Undefeated Pitt and Wake Forest both have notched 13 wins.

At the complete other end of the spectrum we have a handful of regularly-lined teams with only one win: The West Coast Conference’s Loyola Marymount, Sacramento State from the Big Sky, the Southern Conference’s UNC-Greensboro, and two teams from the Mid-American Conference, Toledo and Eastern Michigan.

The undefeated teams are covering the point spread at a 64.9% clip while the only one-game winners are cashing tickets 28.6% of the time.

Teams who are making supporters money at the betting window are 7-1 ATS Auburn, 12-2 Niagara, 9-2-1 California, Arkansas State at 9-2, and Illinois State with an 8-2 record against the number. Squads that are money burners for their backers are three from the Southern Conference, 1-8 ATS UNC-Greensboro, the 1-6 Paladins of Furman, and the Elon Phoenix checking in at 1-5 beating the point spread. Kent and Toledo, both at 2-8 ATS, aren’t making the MAC very proud.

Let’s look more in detail at a few teams and what we can expect from them.

Underachievers

Louisville started out ranked #3 in the nation. The Cardinals lost on neutral courts to Sun Belt Conference Western Kentucky and to Minnesota. UNLV went on the road last week with their top player injured and beat Louisville. The Cards are playing very good defense but their offensive efficiency is sub-par. This is more glaring when you realize they have played a schedule full of weak defensive teams, with the exclusion of UNLV and Kentucky. Shooting 66.1% from the free-throw stripe leaves a lot of points on the court. Big man Fr. Samardo Samuels has to play more above the rim and draw more fouls. Terrence Williams has slightly improved his shooting from a miserable previous season, but he is only shooting 41.1% on 2-pointers and 29.8% on 3’s. Williams takes the most shots on the team but has a very poor offensive efficiency rating of 99.8. The starter with the best OE rating, Jerry Smith, 121.7, takes the fewest shots of any of the top seven in rotation. Last year Louisville started slowly at 5-3 but came on strong to finish at 27-9. The lack of offense has helped Louisville to a 3-7 O/U mark.

Arizona can play like a top ten team or one that is a conference bottom feeder. They are 7-1 at home with the lone loss being by one-point to a quality UAB team. But, the Wildcats are 0-4 on the road with pathetic offensive showings in their last three away tilts. Turnovers have been a tremendous problem on the road, also. A lack of depth does not help but three high-quality starters in Nic Wise, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill all have high-NBA potential with Hill being a lottery pick. Zona is in the bottom ten in the nation in the ratio of three-point field goals attempted to two-pointers. When there isn’t much of a threat from outside, the defense can sag inside. What is odd is the Wildcats rank 14th in 3-point shooting at 40.0%. You would think more 3’s would be going up with such a success rate. This week’s home games against the Oregon schools will help unravel the Arizona mystery. Arizona is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite.

Are They for Real?LSU has a gaudy 13-1 record (until last night) which is deceptive as they have only played five lined games and have played the softest schedule in the nation out of 344 D-1 schools. Besides a couple of Sun Belt teams and a Big West squad, the Tigers have played two BCS schools. They lost in their only venture away from home, a semi-away game in Houston to Texas A&M. They beat a Washington State team by 12 points with 13 steals as they came from seven points down going on a 24-5 run to finish the game. A good test comes January 6th at Utah just five days before LSU opens conference play against division-rival Alabama. Solid play from Sr. G Garrett Temple and Fr. G Bo Spencer have led the Tigers.

Alabama is not much higher on strength of schedule holding down a #339 rank. PG Ronald Steele is back after missing last year due to knee injuries and is regaining his confidence and getting closer to his previous form that made him one of the top pg’s in America. McDonald’s All-American 6-9 JaMychal Green is learning and improving weekly. While the Tide went to the Maui Invitational and their game against D-2 host Chaminade technically counts as an away game, Bama hasn’t played a true road game yet. Warning signs include one of the ten worst assist to field goals made ratio (means a lot of dribbling and little passing), the 209th ranked effective fg%, a 67.6% FT%, and a poor rate in allowing opponents offensive rebounds. And remember, these numbers are put up at home, or a neutral court, against a very weak schedule. Bama appears to be a team to bet against.

The Real Deal

How many years has Clemson started out looking like a contender until January hits and then they crumble. In 2005 they start out 9-3 then go on a 7-13 run to end the season. A 12-2 start the next year saw a 7-11 finish. The most promising was the 2007 season when Clemson went 17-0 followed by a 4-10 streak. Something woke the Tigers up as they did make it to the NIT Finals finishing second. Another 12-2 beginning last season was followed by more promise then in the preceding years, a 12-8 finish which included a one-game NIT appearance. This year’s 14-0 run doesn’t appear to be a fluke as Clemson ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency with three players in the top 200 in the nation. Big man Trevor Booker is greatly improved and is blocking shots and getting offensive rebounds while not getting into the same foul trouble he did last year. They open their ACC schedule at home against NC State Jan. 10 and then have an early showdown against currently undefeated Wake Forest. I’m looking for opportunities to play on Clemson.

The Mid-Major to Watch Out For

Illinois State is on a tear. They have just demolished two MVC title-contenders, Creighton and Evansville, and next travel to Bradley Jan. 6, a school with a very good home-court advantage. The Redbirds haven't won in Peoria since 2002. If they win there, they have one main spot they could trip up on, playing at Drake Feb. 15, before a rematch at Creighton in their last regular season contest, Feb. 28. ISU is winning through rebounding, they’ve only been outrebounded in one game, and defense, leading the MVC in defensive FG shooting at 40.4%. They are only giving up 62.8 ppg, slightly higher than last year’s 59.3 when they ranked 11th in the country. Last year ISU was 20-1 SU when holding opponents to less that 65 points. A candidate for MVC Player of the Year, 6-3 G Osiris Eldridge is leading the team with 15.9 ppg while hitting 40.4% behind the arc. Oregon transfer 6-5 G Champ Oguchi has been superb averaging 15.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 1.7 apg. He is hitting 38.8% of his 3’s and 83.6% from the charity stripe and he and Eldridge are the leading scoring duo in the MVC.

Getting Better and Dangerous

Kansas has five new starters. Sherron Collins is having a monster season and Cole Aldrich is turning into one of the premier big men around. Stud JUCO transfer Mario Little just saw first action off of injury.

UCLA doesn’t have the inside scoring presence as in the past but they still are playing exceptional defense ranking 11th in the nation in steal percentage. Alfred Aboya and James Keefe are doing well on the offensive boards while Michael Roll and Darren Collison can light it up with both hitting over 50% from 3-point range.

These are just a few teams that stand out. A team’s performance in their non-conference schedule has such variables as the level of competition faced, did they improve as the season progressed, have they played many, or even any, true road games. With so many teams to wager on, it pays to differentiate between contenders and pretenders.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority makes another appearance.

New Year’s Day Bowl Games Early Starters

Happy New Year! With the advent of 2009 (doesn’t the turn of the century seem like it wasn’t that long ago) the Cotton Bowl opted out for a date for tomorrow, helping out all of us that had a little too much fun and stayed up a little too late last night. On paper at least, we appear to have three games that have possibilities of being close. The old-school belief is now when the favorites start coming in with regularity in bowl contests, let’s see if the New Year starts out that way.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs South Carolina

More than one eyebrow was raised when this contest was announced to start the New Year’s Day bowl festivities. This makes this a more compelling meeting for each, looking to erase doubts. Iowa started 3-3, with three defeats by nine points. The Hawkeyes put it together, culminating in an upset of Penn State. After 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota, Iowa is 17-5 ATS after a game committing no turnovers. The vaunted South Carolina defense caved in for 87 points in last two losses, with zero help from offense. With Iowa solid defensively, surprisingly the Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS vs teams who give up 14 or less PPG. The Hawkeyes are meager 2-6 ATS as bowl favorite, with USC marginally better 2-4 ATS as dog.

Why to Watch and Wager

Steve Spurrier is very aware his team has faded down the stretch the last two years. In fact losing the last couple of games have become common place in Columbia, having done so six of the last seven seasons. Spurrier, seldom the positive sort, has taken a more positive approach since losing to Clemson and wants his players to enjoy the moment and end the season on upbeat note. It might not be that easy for the Gamecocks who are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has won five of last six with ball-hawking defense that is +8 in turnover margin during this streak. Running back Shonn Greene has led the Hawkeyes offense and they have gotten just enough out the passing game to average 30.2 points per game. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the Outback Bowl, the favorite is 14-6 against the spread with Big Ten 4-2 ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – Iowa -3.5, 43

Capital One Bowl- Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State (9-3, 6-6 ATS) is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl for the first time in nine seasons as they believe they are on the right track to make this annual event. The Spartans were waxed 49-18 by Penn State in their finale, but that’s nothing new and coach Mark Dantonio teams are 9-1 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. Possibly Georgia (9-3, 3-6-2 ATS) could have lived up to the preseason hype of number one if they could have fielded the team they thought they had in July, but injuries took care of any dreams. Coach Mark Richt teams traditionally have been good away from home, 15-6 ATS playing against a team with 75 percent or higher win percentage. The Bulldogs are good 15-11 ATS in bowls (7-3 ATS L10), with Spartans 5-4 ATS as underdogs.

Why to Watch and Wager

For Georgia, it’s about getting the running game going against Michigan State. In the Bulldogs three losses, Knowshon Moreno was held under the century mark. The coaches have also reviewed the run defense, which allowed 226.4 yards per game in last five encounters, including distressing 409 to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites in last seven outings. Michigan State assuredly will test that Georgia front with Javon Ringer, who finished third nationally in rushing at 132.5 yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns with 21. Quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to play well for the Spartans to pull the upset and Michigan State is 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This bowl has been recently dominated by the Big Ten with five covers in six games, with the only loser being in overtime. In fact, the Big Ten has a streak of four consecutive outright upsets in Orlando.

Bookmaker.com Line – Georgia -7.5, 55

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Nebraska

Clemson University rewarded Dabo Swinney with head coaching position, for making the best of difficult situation and guiding the Tigers (7-5, 4-6 ATS) to three wins to close the season. Clemson finally lived up to preseason hype, with defense that was ranked 15th overall. They will be called on again against high-powered Nebraska offense that scores 36.2 points per game. The Cornhuskers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) made strides to return to past glories with eight wins this season. Nebraska is a ball-hog on offense, holding it for over 33 minutes a game. The Huskers out-played Colorado in final home game, yet is 0-7 ATS after out-gaining foe by 125 or more total yards. Oddly, Nebraska is 15-15 ATS in bowls. The ACC is 7-0 ATS in this bowl, though Clemson was the last loser in 2001 game.

Why to Watch and Wager

After a tumultuous season, Clemson can still cap the year with a New Year’s Day triumph. The Tigers are making their ninth Gator Bowl appearance and have the same number of functioning weapons they had to start the season. Quarterback Cullen Harper and the backfield of James Davis and C.J. Spiller were all swallowed up by ineffective offensive line, until gaining confidence late in year, which allowed them to win four of five. It should be noted, Clemson averaged just 16.8 points per game away from home compared to 25.5 overall. The Tigers are only 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Nebraska returns to bowl game after one year absence and plays in this bowl for the first time ever. Senior quarterback Joe Ganz was among the plethora of fine signal callers in the Big 12. The Cornhuskers won five of last six and averaged 38 points per game in last three. Even in winning, Nebraska average better than two turnovers a game and is 2-10 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins. The favorite has cashed in nine of last 12 Gator Bowls.

Bookmaker.com Line – Clemson -2, 56

ACC/Big Ten Challenge

The Big Ten jetted to 1-0 lead with Wisconsin taking down Virginia Tech 74-72 yesterday and based on the previous results of this event, they better relish it while they can. Tonight five more games will be played, with Duke at Purdue being the showcase contest. If and it is a really big if, the Big Ten wants a realistic chance to finally win The Challenge, they have to hold serve as home favorites tonight, being favored in three of the five games on their home court. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State at Miami-FL (-8) ESPN 7:00E

The Hurricanes are in the group of teams right behind North Carolina and Duke, trying to make noise this season in the ACC. Miami is 4-1 (2-1 ATS), with only loss coming to second-ranked Connecticut 76-63. Guard Jack McClinton is the team’s leading scorer and catalyst from a team that welcomed back four starters and is 11-1 ATS in non-conference action.

Ohio State (3-0, 2-1 ATS) held Samford to 22 points, not for the half, but for the game. They will be tested more severely today, against what might be the best perimeter shooting team in the ACC. The Buckeyes have had to rebuild for the second straight season and have wing David Lighty and F Evan Turner to fall back on. Ohio State has another very good freshman class; however this will be their first road adventure, though in the past this has not been a problem with 14-5 ATS mark after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite.

Ohio State is 2-5 in this challenge and Miami 0-2, but the edge has to go veteran Canes at home with 10-2 ATS record after playing a home game.

Iowa at Boston College (-8) ESPNU 7:00E

Boston College (4-2, 4-1 ATS) fell behind Purdue by 19-points in New York and rallied to within seven before losing. They came from behind to beat UAB in the NIT third place game 83-77 as three-point underdogs. G Tyrese Rice is what makes these Eagles fly and B.C. is 14-4 ATS after three consecutive non-conference games.

Second year coach Frank Lickliter has thrown three freshman into the fray, seeing this as his future and thus far they have responded well with 6-1 (3-1 ATS) record, including 65-63 upset of Kansas State, despite shooting 36.4 percent. Sophomore point guard Jeff Peterson has been an early stabilizer and the Hawkeyes have shot the ball well early at 49.8 percent. Iowa doesn’t appear to be in a favorable situation, but could cover the number if they play physical with Rice like St. Louis did in holding him to six points.

Iowa, like most Big Ten teams has losing record in this event at 2-5 and Boston College is 0-2 in their previous tries.

Clemson at Illinois (-2) ESPN2 7:30E

Coach Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini take a 6-0 (3-1) record into ACC/Big Ten Challenge battle with fellow unbeaten Clemson (7-0, 2-3 ATS). Illinois has been a surprise, vanquishing Vanderbilt on the road and beating Kent State and Tulsa in San Padre Tournament. Contributions are coming from all top seven players, but the big improvement has come from PG Chester Frazier, who has astonishing 42-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Illinois had one of the best home court edges for years but is only 4-12 ATS since the beginning of last season.

Clemson is a sparking 7-2 in this conference challenge and has returned seven of top 10 players from NCAA Tournament team. K.C. Rivers makes this team flow and Raymond Sykes has brought the energy to the Tigers, with Trevor Booker being a force inside. Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

This is one of the swing games the ACC has invariably won in this Challenge and how Illinois handles the Clemson pressure defense will directly relate to the outcome.

Duke at Purdue (-2) ESPN 9:00E

Duke (7-0, 4-3 ATS) has a perfect 9-0 record in this battle between well-known conferences and they face an engaging test. The Blue Devils are still perimeter oriented, with any number of players capable of beating opponent off the dribble taking the ball to the rim. Duke is at its best when the leading scorer is to be determined in a game, whether it is Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas or Gerald Henderson. The Dukies are 14-7 after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Purdue (5-1, 3-2 ATS) is a mere 2-5 in The Challenge, with both wins coming at home. The Boilermakers are coming off disappointing loss to Oklahoma in the NIT final, losing in overtime 87-82, in a game they led almost from start to finish. E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are the stars of Purdue; nevertheless this is a solid basketball team that plays very good defense and has answers on the offensive end. The Boilers have won 13 in a row at Mackey Arena (10-3 ATS) and are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Duke has to be considered dangerous in this position, yet Purdue is angry off a loss and rabid crowd could make it challenging on the Blue Devils.

Virginia at Minnesota (-7) ESPN2 9:30E

The first full night off ACC/Big Ten action concludes at The Barn in Minnesota. The Golden Gophers (6-0, 2-2 ATS) are a youthful bunch, having lost top three scorers from a year ago. Coach Tubby Smith made up a schedule of home games versus beatable opponents, with this being one of the more engaging encounters. Minnesota has had their share of early season injuries in the frontcourt, leaving PG Al Nolen to soldier the load. Coach Smith hopes good shooting fortune continues, being 10-0 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent of their shots or better.

Virginia (3-2, 1-1 ATS) has been sluggish to start a new campaign, due to lack of defense. Teams are shooting 47.4 percent against the Cavaliers, as coach Dave Leitao continues to tinker with his lineup, using five different combinations in five games. Hard to determine what Virginia will do off it worst performance in loss to Liberty and best effort in narrow defeat to Syracuse 73-70 as 16-point underdogs. After years of being a laughable road team (34-57 ATS as road underdogs), Virginia is 11-6 against the spread the last few seasons.

With two inexperienced squads, count this as another swing game.

Great College Football Rivalries - Part 2

Last week we looked at many of the colorful rivalries that make college football such a rich sport steeped in tradition. This upcoming week will take a further look at several more historic matchups being played this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

On Thursday night, Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-5, but 8-2 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a left over turkey leg.

On Friday, the Egg Bowl rivalry will be renewed as Mississippi State heads over to Oxford to get in on with the Rebels. This match-up is best described as a “family feud” as read in William Barner’s book on the history of the rivalry. Back in the old days, fans would break out into fights before, during and after the games. In 1926, the fighting got so ugly after the first Ole Miss victory in 13 years that officials came up with the concept of the Golden Egg Trophy, awarded to the winner in a formal ceremony each year. It was supposed to cut down on such ugliness, instead the fans just fought outside the stadium as opposed to in it. The Rebels have won four of last six and are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine contests.

There is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter. The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson, Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 win. No.1 Alabama hosts this year’s event trying to break a stranglehold Auburn has had with six straight wins (4-2 ATS) under coach Tommy Tuberville, as the Tigers are creeping ever closer to the Tide who own a 38-33-1 all-time edge. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of #1 Alabama with a seventh triumph. The home team is just 4-9 ATS; with the Tide 5-5 ATS in last 10 and Tigers 9-6 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

A regionalized rivalry known as the “Border War” between Kansas and Missouri will once again have great meaning to the combatants. This will be the second year of two-year agreement to return to the roots of origination and play the game in somewhat neutral Kansas City (19 of the first 20 games were played in Kansas City). The all-time football series has Missouri leading 54-53, with 9 ties. The underdog is 8-5 ATS in the last 13 years. Surprisingly this is the second oldest rivalry in D-1 (FBS), with the winner getting The Indian War Drum.

The “Bedlam Game” will be played in Stillwater this season, when the Oklahoma Sooners arrive. It’s hard to almost call this a rivalry since Oklahoma leads with an all-time record of 78-16-7. Billionaire Boone Pickens is doing his best to change all that, upgrading the facilities in Stillwater to be better then any in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. Unfortunately he can’t buy the Cowboys a new defense that can stop the sizzling Sooners. The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 fracases.

The battle of Palmetto State is a heated rivalry with origins back to the 1880’s concerning historic tensions regarding their respective charters. The two institutions are separated by just over 125 miles, holding the longest uninterrupted series in the South and the third longest uninterrupted series overall, having been played every year since 1909. The meeting has a strange ritual dating back to early 1900’s and is carried on today. Without going into all the long details, South Carolina and Clemson University bring a made-up symbol about the other and burns it on Friday night before the big encounter. The 2004 game is the most recent contest etched in the minds of the schools and people across the country, when both teams started brawling at the conclusion of Clemson’s 29-7 victory. Each team had won a total of six games that year and were technically bowl eligible. However, both schools elected to forfeit their postseason because of the shameful nature of the fight. This series typifies maybe as much as any the frenzied excitement, with the visitor 15-4 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

Georgia and Georgia Tech can best be explained by book Bill Cromartie penned – Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate. These teams can’t even agree on the number of games they have competed on the gridiron. Georgia Tech’s records show two more then Georgia’s, as the Bulldogs do not acknowledge the games played in 1943-44 since many of there players were in World War II. Georgia has a 21-game edge in the series and under Mark Richt, the Bulldogs have ripped off seven straight. The visitor is 8-2 ATS.

Florida State and Florida is all about protecting the home turf as demonstrated by 15-5 ATS record in which some of the best athletes in college football have played in this battle. Florida has had the better of it in recent years with four consecutive wins and like most years, the outcome has national implications.

The Notre Dame-USC rivalry is regarded as the greatest intersectional series in college football and has been played annually since 1926, except for a brief repose during World War II. The winner of this rivalry game is awarded the coveted Jeweled Shillelagh, a war club adorned with emerald-emblazoned clovers signifying Irish victories and Ruby-emblazoned Trojan warrior heads for Trojan wins. Notre Dame is 3-9 ATS against cross-country rival USC since 1996 and has lost last three games at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum by 82 points.