Breakaway Friday

A split from Thursday has us at 143-84 and we look to build on this record with an 80 percent system in the AL. Also in the junior circuit, one club is on a long losing streak in a particular situation. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – From Elias Sports: James McDonald, who was traded to the Pirates by the Dodgers last week, won his debut with Pittsburgh on Thursday and in the process of doing so became the first starting pitcher to allow no runs and strike out at least eight batters in his first game for the Pirates since 1907, when Nick Maddox threw a shutout with 11 strikeouts in his major-league debut.

The GUARANTEED Plays missed on the Dodgers last night as James Loney left four runners on base in his last two at-bats when the score was still 3-0. Moving ahead to today, I have an Out of the Park Guaranteed Baseball Winner and Twin Pack of MLB Night Time Winners. Join 3Daily Winners and cash in with these Guaranteed Plays.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Cleveland, a weak hitting team with batting average of .260 or less, against a very good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.50 or less, whose batting .200 or worse over their last three games. This system just meets our criteria at 56-14, 80 percent.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The Boston Red Sox are 0-11 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Free Baseball Pick -3) LCC Friday consensus is 5-0 on San Diego over Arizona.

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3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info

A thinner baseball slate has those doing baseball betting fixated on four contests. Two of the games feature side action and the other two hone in on the totals. Take a read and see if you agree or disagree with the wagering public in Thursday’s action.

L.A. Angels at Baltimore 7:05 EDT

Buck Showalter is paying immediate benefits for the Baltimore Orioles, winning his first two games as the skipper. The Orioles offense has come to life scoring 15 total runs in back to back contests, something that has happened only twice since June 25. The O’s will face face Dan Haren (7-10, 4.42) and see if they can orchestrate their third home sweep of the season. The focus for baseball bettors has been on the total, since it began at 8.5 and has been elevated to 9. Granted, Haren was pitching for an awful Arizona club, however his ERA was still lofty 4.86 and he’s 16-7 OVER in 23 starts. While there is a little excitement in the land of crap cakes, the Orioles are 26-11 UNDER at home having won two of their last three.

Colorado at Pittsburgh 7:05 EDT

The Rockies have won five of six and Pittsburgh is playing like Pittsburgh, having lost 10 of 13, so why would online sports betting analysts be favoring the Pirates? The Bucs opened as +161 money line home underdogs and have actually wandered downward to +150 or less at various sportsbooks. The Pittsburgh bullpen was dreadful in 9-4 defeat to Cincinnati and the Pirates are 4-22 after the bullpen was rocked for six or more runs since 2008. The answer my friends is not blowing in the wind, its right here. Did you know Colorado is 4-14 in road encounters after a win and astonishing 0-9 (-9.2 Units) as visitors having won three of their last four games this season? Toss in the fact tonight’s starter Jeff Francis (4-3, 4.44) and Rockies are 0-7 (-9.7 Units) vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and just maybe this dog might have some bite.

San Francisco at Atlanta 7:10 EDT

This potential playoff matchup is strictly about perception. Tim Lincecum and the Giants were -121 ML road faves and are now -108 or lower at online sports betting outlets. Atlanta’s Major League best 36-14 home record undoubtedly is a factor, as is 17-5 mark at Turner Field playing against teams with a winning record this season. Yet, it is impossible to ignore San Francisco’s recent 13-3 joy ride on the road for exactly the last month, plus having the knowledge of Lincecum being 6-1 with 2.70 ERA against Atlanta. The outcome could be decided by how the Braves batters hit in the clutch. After batting under .200 with runners in scoring position for a 10-game stretch, Atlanta busted out eight runs in stopping New York yesterday. Taking advantage of similar opportunities probably will determine the Game 1 winner.

Cleveland at Boston 9:40 EDT

The Red Sox are doing their best to field a team with all their injuries. They’ve lost two of three to Cleveland and want to salvage a split with Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3, 4.22) on the mound. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts against the Indians. The wagering public was in sell mode for this matchup at total of 8.5, with the new number is 9. Matsuzaka is 33-15 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5; however Boston is 10-2-1 OVER after their opponent allowed two or less runs. The Tribe is 12-4-2 UNDER after a win in last 18 outings, but is 6-2 OVER playing a Game 4 of a series.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
The L.A. Angels are 12-0 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last three seasons.

Totals Nugget
San Diego is 14-2 OVER in August road games the last two years with average score of 11.6 total runs.

Run Line Nugget
Florida is 30-11 (+19.2 Units) against the run line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.

3DW Line Moves is copyrighted content of Impact Sports Solutions, Inc and Doug Upstone. All rights reserved.
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Hunting Down more Saturday Winners

Our last meeting here on Thursday saw us post a 2-0 day, taking record to spectacular 123-66. Today our 82 percent Best System and Free are from the same afternoon contest and the Top Trend follows the throwing motion of a Boston chucker. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – From Elias Sports: The Indians defeated the Rays, 3-1, in a rain-shortened game, and have now won their last 18 home games against Tampa Bay, the longest current home winning streak for any major-league team against another. The Rays' last victory in Cleveland came on Sept. 28, 2005 - a 1-0 decision in which Seth McClung outdueled Cliff Lee.

The Indians hold the modern major-league record for consecutive home wins against one team: from 1952 to 1954, Cleveland won 27 consecutive games against the Browns/Orioles franchise (which moved from St. Louis to Baltimore in 1954).

The GUARANTEED Plays are back and we have Guaranteed Parlay today backed with a NL club in an 86.9 percent situation and an AL squad in an eye-popping 92.3 percent winning spot.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Dodgers, revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%). Since 2006, this system is sharp 41-9, 82 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jon Lester is 21-3 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall has three winners in a row at 3Daily Winners and has the Dodgers to mess up the Mets.

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American League teams needing quick starts

The second half of the Major League Baseball season is about to begin and three games are on tap in the junior circuit for participants in sports betting. Two contests feature playoff contenders who are looking to begin the second half with a win, to set the right tone for the rest of the season, hopefully to keep building momentum from this point.

Rangers and Red Sox rumble

Boston (51-37, +3.9 units) actually has a better record than Texas (50-38, -1.8), but is in third place in the AL East behind New York and Tampa Bay, while the Rangers have the largest lead (4.5 games) among the six division leaders.

Both clubs have been slumping and are in need of a fast start to rebuild momentum. Boston has lost five of last seven games, falling behind the Rays in the standings as all their injuries apparently have caught up with them. Seven important players on are the disabled list and that includes All-Stars Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Clay Buchholz.

“I know it’s not perfect, I recognize that, but the level of intensity and trying to do the right thing has been off the charts,” manager Terry Francona told the Red Sox’s official website. “It’s been a challenge, but one that I think we’ve all kind of enjoyed. … Our job is to win with what we have.”

The Red Sox have not enjoyed much success versus quality clubs the last two seasons with a 5-19 record against teams with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season.

Texas starts this four game series with its confidence more shaken than Mel Gibson, having lost a four game series at home to Baltimore of all teams. The Rangers base paths looked like Dallas at rush hour in failing to beat the Orioles once, leaving a total of 37 runners on base in being swept. Those losses left the Rangers 6-15 against AL East opponents this season.

Texas opened as an underdog at online sports betting outlets, but were quickly turned around to a favorite with Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA) facing Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22). Hunter has had seven quality starts in eight outings, but was torched for nine runs in 1 2/3 innings in only Fenway Park start. The Rangers are 3-8 this month.

Boston won final game in Toronto 3-2 and is 18-2 in home games after scoring and allowing three runs or less over the last two seasons. Wakefield will especially careful with Vladimir Guerrero who is hitting .434 against him (10 for 23 with five homers). The BoSox have had little to fear from the Rangers, being winners in 11 of previous 14 in Bean Town.

Scalding Sox try to avoid Minnesota mishaps

During the All-Star telecast, FOX analyst Tim McCarver talked about asking Chicago’s Paul Konerko if he had ever played on a team that was as hot as the White Sox (25-5 since June 9) and the first basemen’s answer was direct and to the point, “Never”.

Chicago’s current eight-game winning streak and torrid play had them blasting by Minnesota (46-42, -3.4) and Detroit to the top rung in the AL Central.

The Pale Hose trailed Minnesota by 9.5 games when this scintillating streak first started and even the manager of Chicago is trying to come to grips with the situation. “I think it is a shock just because the way the team was playing, how many games we were out of first place. It’s a shock how quick we did it,” skipper Ozzie Guillen said. Chicago is 11-2 after four or more consecutive wins this season.

The White Sox (49-38, +9) make a second trip this season to Target Field with hopes of drowning past failures in the land of 10,000 lakes.

Playing in the Twin Cities is not listed as a favorite spot by the White Sox, having lost 16 of last 20; however except for 1-1 this year, the rest of the damage was done at the old Metrodome, where seemingly everything went wrong.

John Danks (8-7, 3.29) hasn’t received a great deal of run support despite being effective and he and Chicago are 19-10 on the road (1-6 lifetime at Minnesota) since 2008.

The Twins are 47-19 at home against left-handed starters the last three seasons and hand the ball to Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64), trying to turnaround season that has gone south with 6-13 record of late. Slowey and the Twinkies are smallish -115 money line home favorites for those betting on sports and are 14-2 in home games after he walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.

Betting Baseball Futures by the Numbers

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting and earned run averages at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might mean. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a San Diego preseason wager of Over/Under 74 wins at Sportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. However, the corrective reading goggles of the halfway point of the season has the Padres as less favorable +110 choice to win the NL West compared back in March when they +600.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up new topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs than your opponent, you cannot lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Since we have the time at the All-Star, we’ll look who at every Major League squad has played thru 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use the New York Yankees as the example.

Yankees runs scored – 436
Yankees runs allowed – 340

436 x 436 = 190096
340 x 340 = 115600

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.
190096 + 115600 = 305696
190096 divided by 305696 = .621

Take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .621, this gives you a total of 50.3. What this means is the Yankees should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was exactly the same, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology and projected season total if they were to play exactly the same way.

American League (actual – projected- possible season record)

AL East
New York Yankees 50-31 - 50-31- 100-62
Boston 49-32 - 47-34 – 94-68
Tampa Bay 48-33 - 51-30 – 102-60
Toronto 41-40 - 44-37 – 82-80
Baltimore 25-56 – 25-56 – 50-112

AL Central
Detroit 45-36 – 41-40 – 82-80
Minnesota 44-37 - 46-35 – 92-70
Chicago WS 43-38 - 41-40 – 82-80
Kansas City 36-45 - 37-44 – 74-88
Cleveland 32-49 - 33-48 – 66-96

AL West
Texas 48-33 - 48-33 - 96-66
L.A. Angels 45-36 - 40-41 – 80-82
Oakland 40-41 - 40-41 – 80-82
Seattle 34-47 - 32-49 – 64-98

AL Observations – The biggest surprise out of the AL East is Tampa Bay projected to win its division. Though most sports books still taking action on division titles have the Rays as the third choice to win AL East, Tampa Bay brings plenty to the party. How they have managed to overachieve thus far is because they have the highest save percentage in the league and concede the lowest on-base percentage in the junior circuit (.305). Another reason Tampa Bay might be around longer than most expected is 25-10 record in games decided by four or more runs, showing their dominance.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen has saved them in the first half of the year, however their pitching as a whole might well send them plummeting in the second half of the season unless they swing a trade for another starter. The Chicago White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with an eight-game winning streak, but have to find a way to replace Jake Peavy who is gone for the year.

The Los Angeles Angels limp into the break having lost eight of last 10. Normally, if a team outperforms its RS/RA numbers, the bullpen is the reason. The overall season numbers for the Halos bullpen is meager, however during their hot June (19-10), the pen actually pitched well. Unless they pick up another bat for the lineup and the entire pitching staff improves, the Texas Rangers could well run away with this very weak division.

National League (actual – projected - possible season record)

NL East
Atlanta 48-33 - 48-33 – 96-66
N.Y. Mets 45-46 - 46-35 – 92-70
Philadelphia 43-38 - 46-35 – 92-70
Florida 38-43 - 43-38 – 86-76
Washington 35-46 -35-46 – 70-92

NL Central
Cincinnati 46-35 - 45-36 -90-72
St. Louis 44-37 - 47-34 -94-68
Milwaukee 37-44 -38-43 - 76-86
Chicago Cubs 35-46 -36-45 – 72-90
Houston 32-39 - 26-55 – 52-110
Pittsburgh 29-52 - 20-61 – 40-122

NL West
San Diego 48-33 - 47-34 – 94-68
L.A. Dodgers 45-36 - 43-38 – 86-76
Colorado 43-38 - 44-37 – 88-74
San Francisco 41-40 – 44-37 - 88-74
Arizona 32-49 – 32-49 – 64-98

NL Observations – The two-time defending NL champion Phillies have outperformed their record, thanks to their ability to rule the NL Central. Philadelphia is 17-8 and +39 in RS/RA against that division (+48 overall). With no Chase Utley likely until September, the Phillies might not have enough hitting or pitching to catch Atlanta. The Florida Marlins numbers suggest they should be better, which is why manager Fredi Gonzalez was shown the door. The Fish are tied for the most blown saves in the NL and their 11-17 record in one run games speaks volumes.

The NL Central appears to be a two team race the rest of the season and how they perform against the other four mediocre clubs should determine the Reds or Cardinals fate. If skipper Tony LaRussa can find ways to score more runs, St. Louis should win division based on numbers.

It’s interesting to note both Houston and Pittsburgh have out-performed (at least on some level) their actual RS/RA figures. Not sure what hiring former Astros star Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach is going to do for team that is 9-28 in games decided by four or more runs. Then there are the Pirates. Consider Pittsburgh has been outscored by 194 runs this season. To put that number into perspective, that is more than fellow last place teams Seattle and Arizona combined (-179 total). The Bucs are a walking play against run line team, losing by 2.2 runs per game and are 4-29 in contests determined by four runs or more.

San Diego is not a fluke, perfectly built for their vast acreage called Petco Park, with more than enough pitching to keep them competitive on the road. Will the lack of offensive production hold up, we’ll find out. Based on first half play, if one team in the NL West could improve, the San Francisco Giants should if they could squeeze more out of their batting order.

Saturday Specials

The Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to blow our system play and give us a 1-2 Friday, as we look to rebound. A number of top line pitchers are scheduled to throw today and two of them have unreal records as favorites and are listed as Top Trends. Our Best System is a winner 84.1 percent of the time and Ron thinks he has another Free Winner on tap. Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.7 in units won in MLB at Cappers Watchdog the last week.

What I saw yesterday – Kuroda of the Dodgers had nothing last night against the D-Backs, throwing 66 pitches in less than two innings. The rest of the bullpen was not much better. I just tire of watching Matt Kemp, he just doesn’t play hard. For a guy who should be approaching the prime of his career, getting benched by your manager doesn’t show a willingness to help your team.

It was just one game, but Arizona went the other way with pitches (instead of trying to pull everything like usual) and was aggressive on the base paths. I have no idea if Kirk Gibson is a good manager, but I expect he will push the Snakes to be more assertive and sit those who are not.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less long balls per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Dating back to when the movie “Good Will Hunting” was hit, this system is 53-10.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies are 14-0 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons and Jon Lester and Boston are 17-0 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine with 28-8 MLB record and is taking the Red Sox to pulverize the O’s on the run line.

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What we learned from MLB Interleague Play

As per usual, the American League once again showed their superiority over their union partners from the National League in interleague play with a 134-118 edge. This marks the seventh straight time the junior circuit has been victorious, however for those thirsting for the 16-team league to finally win this event, this year was the closest the National League has been since this rein began in 2004. (AL won that year 126-125)

One of the humorous aspects each year is the managers that end up with a tougher draw, whine like Oksana Grigorieva (Mel Gibson’s soon to be ex) about what misfortune they have encountered.

Joe Torre was lightly complaining his team had to face the Angels six times, plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Detroit, which led to 4-11 record this year. Torre might have a slight argument, since his team faced better clubs than either San Francisco or San Diego, who are ahead of them in the standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers always play terrible against AL, thus this isn’t news and besides, who had the Padres in first place on July 1 in the NL West this season unless they were taking on Triple-A teams.

Over the course of a 162-game slate, there is going to be ups and downs and if a team is in one situation or the other, that more than anything will affect how they play and more likely determine their outcome.

The biggest benefactor of the interleague play was the Chicago White Sox, who single-handily accounted for 75 percent of the difference in the two leagues with their 15-3 record. The White Sox did have any easier draw, having to play Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington and taking on their sinking cross-town rivals the Cubs, didn’t hurt either. However, manager Ozzie Guillen’s club also swept first place Atlanta on the south side during their 11-game win streak and is right back in contention in the AL Central race with Minnesota and Detroit.

Texas and Boston were two other teams that improved their status whipping their National League counterparts. The Rangers contingent of opponents might already be out of the pennant chase, yet you have to tip your cap for franchise best 8-1 road trip, that included stops in Milwaukee, Florida and Houston. Texas returned home and swept Pittsburgh, to make win streak 11 and they start series with Los Angeles on 16-2 roll, 4.5 games ahead of the Angels.

The Red Sox were 13-5 in their interleague adventure and faced three solid clubs from the NL West and went toe to toe six times with the two-time National League champion Phillies. Their success moved them up to second place in the AL East standings, surpassing Tampa Bay and closing in on the Yankees.

With the Dodgers swimming into the interleague black hole with teams like Washington (5-13 interleague play), Pittsburgh (2-13) and Houston (3-12), somebody from the NL had to emerge victorious.

The biggest winner was the New York Mets at 13-5. Their 6-0 record over Baltimore and Cleveland could hardly be described as taxing, yet for a team that is 9-20 on the road everywhere else, that six-pack of visiting triumphs sure came in handy. The Metropolitans again had to face the Yankees six times and manager Jerry Manuel didn’t whine once, keeping his lips closed tight also facing division contenders like the Tigers and Twins.

Of the National Leaguer’s that were 9-6, division leader San Diego was most impressive with 4-2 road mark.

One final note, it would be a complete oversight not to mention the Pirates. Pittsburgh now holds the record for baseball futility with 17 consecutive losing seasons since Barry Bonds left town in 1992 as a free agent for San Francisco. Barring an unprecedented comeback, No. 18 just needs 32 more losses in the final 86 games. Their aforementioned pitiful interleague record of 2-13, saw them outscored by 2.8 runs per game, quite an accomplishment.

Monday Mania

Took a slight misstep at 1-2 and will attempt to correct that immediately starting with a perfect trend in one of the AL West battles. The Best System is 82.7 percent and Mike of the LCC has what he believes is NL winner! Good Luck

What I thought today – The referees are ruining the NBA playoffs while enhancing those in the NHL. (See tomorrow’s article for more details)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Cleveland, averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. Boston certainly appears the play backed with system that is 43-9, 82.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Angels are 11-0 after accumulating 17 or more base hits.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike went 9-3 over the weekend in all sports and has the Reds as his top play tonight.

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Sunday Stuff

Another 2-1 Saturday takes us to 69-34 and we have a MLB system similar to yesterday with a slightly different twist that is 87.3 percent. The Top Trend yields two from the same game and is 25-1. Mr. Buck has hit a nice stretch and hopes to sail along with another winner today. Good Luck

What I thought today – As soon as Kendry Morales broke the bone in his leg jumping on home plate in freak accident, everyone assumed the Angles would fly away and not be contender. Instead they have won six of seven as other players are stepping up offensively. I acknowledge playing the M’s and Royals helps.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Arizona, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a ridiculous starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. In the last 63 times this system has come up in the last five years, 55 have been winners.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Boston is 12-0 after four or more consecutive Over’s and Baltimore is 1-13 after scoring two runs or less two straight games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Though I continue to do well with 2-1 day, I missed my play here yesterday and in moves Paul Buck who is on steaming 10-2 run. He’s on the Mariners to salvage one game in their series.

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Hopefully more winners on the way

Let’s make today a good Saturday. We have nailed exactly 67 percent of our last 100 selections at the 3DW and let’s hunt down more winners. We’ll start with a MLB killer system that is 93.4. We have a different kind of trend; check it out, rather quirky and perfect. I’ve been going well lately, see my top play today. Good Luck

What I saw today – Justin Masterson won Friday to end his streak of winless starts at 17, which was the longest streak of winless starts in Indians history. The previous record, 15 starts, was set by Brent Strom in 1973 and tied by Rod Nichols from 1989 to 1991.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher (Jon Lester) whose WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Since 2006 this incredible system is 57-4, 93.4 percent. For good measure, Lester is 10-0 against the Birds.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Here is a bit of a changeup, but worth noting. Umpire Todd Tichenor is behind the plate tonight in St. Louis and home teams are 11-0, winning by 3.4 runs per game when he is calling balls and strikes this season. I’m just sayin’!

Free Baseball Pick -3) I’m 31-17, +11.04 units since May 20 and like the underdog Athletics this evening.

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Saturday's Line up

I wish I could keep up with this daily with how we are going but doing a lot of football writing recently which cuts into time. Anyway we are on 59-26 run and have an outstanding 85.4 percent system ready to ignite. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and not surprising involves the Pirates. The guys from the Left Coast Connection have been awesome when they think like-minded and have another Free consensus play. Good Luck

What I’ll thought today – I love conspiracy theorists, if Orlando would have won last night they would say the NBA is fixed and they wanted a seventh game, but since that didn’t happen they move on to “well David Stern wanted Boston in the finals”. Amazing!!!!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Astros, being outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season, after allowing 15 runs or more. Since 2006 this system is 41-7, 85.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brian Burres of Pittsburgh is 0-11 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 in his career. (Team record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus plays have been amazing and they are 10-0 on the Red Sox tonight.

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MLB Systems that hit all bases

The weather is heating up across most of the country, which makes going a baseball a very comfortable experience. On the topic of hot, this Wednesday we have four smokin’ systems in the big leagues that begging to be considered for online sports betting.

Oakland at Baltimore 7:05E MASN

After smacking the ball around the yard for 31 hits in two games early last week, the Athletics offense has gone nearly dormant with more than seven base hits once in last six outings. Oakland is 12th in runs scored in the American League at 3.8 per game and will face Baltimore’s Brian Matusz (2-4, 5.26 ERA), whose last three outings have been like the stock market. (3 2/3, six runs allowed -seven shutout innings – 2 1/3, seven runs allowed)

Sportsbooks have total on this tilt of Ov8.5, but history shows AL teams that score 4.5 or less runs a contest after three consecutive games of seven hits or fewer, against a starting pitcher with ERA in 4.70 to 5.70 range, have a strong tendency to play UNDER with 39-13 record since 1997.

Boston at Tampa Bay 7:10 E NESN

For the last several years the Red Sox have scuffled in Tampa Bay with 6-16 record coming into the series. They are starting to turn that around with a pair of wins to begin three-game set. Boston will go for the sweep of the AL East division leaders having won four in a row and eight of nine.

The Red Sox have been swinging hot bats and are now second to Toronto in home runs in the big leagues with 62 and they’ve received excellent pitching, holding the Rays to one run in the first two games. John Lackey (4-3, 5.07) continues to struggle with his new club and will take on Matt Garza (5-2, 2.37) who is 8-2 against the BoSox.

Oddsmakers have made Boston +144 road underdogs and teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs game after allowing two runs or less and are visiting dogs of +125 to +175, are 26-86 the last five seasons.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 7:10E

While San Diego and Tampa Bay have garnered most of the attention for their early season exploits, one team has quietly gone about their business, yet is surprisingly tied for a division lead. The Cincinnati Reds are 26-20 (+6.5), with seven wins in their last 11 contests. The Reds strength has been their offense, averaging 5.6 RPG since May 4.

Tonight, Cincy is a -166 ML choice and home favorites of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, in May, are 45-13 since 2006.

Arizona at Colorado 8:40E

On the baseball card for Hump Day, one of the biggest presumed mismatches is this NL West battle. The reason is simplistic, National League Cy Young Award candidate, Ubaldo Jimenez (8-1, 0.99) is pitching, leading baseball in wins and earned run average.

How dominant has Jimenez been; he’s the second major league starter in the past 90 years to begin a season with nine starts of six or more innings while giving up three or fewer runs.
The Rockies are -240 ML faves against Arizona’s up and down offense and road underdogs of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts are beggarly 3-47. Ouch!

All systems from the Foxsheets.

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No Monday plays but great info

No great systems, trends or otherwise today, so we’ll let today go.

What I found today – Will this be the year the National League finally ends the American League’s six year reign of terror? Though just 42 of the 252 official interleague games have been played in 2010, the numbers are evenly divided at 21-21.

Some of the usual suspects performed up to their high standards (see article below), as Boston and Minnesota both won series over the National League. However, even traditionally dreadful clubs like San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers came thru and won two of three.

Get out the cell phone to take a picture of this.

Tampa Bay is the first team to get 20 games over .500 and they are the best bet in baseball at +13.3 units, think about that being possible after the 2007 season.

Next is two very unlikely candidates, San Diego (+10.1) and Washington (+10.1).

The Padres are still in first place in the NL West despite a batting order that does not raise the blood pressure of opposing pitchers, but they have pitching staff that leads the National League in ERA at 2.98. While some will say this is a by-product of playing at cavernous Petco Park, San Diego is 14-9 on the road and their ERA is third in the big leagues at 3.8.

Washington being over .500 at 23-22 at this stage of the season is remarkable for them. The reason the Nationals have been successful to this point is improved defense and pitching. Instead of ranking in the lower 25 percent of virtually every category, they are now average, which has them as more competitive club.

At the beginning of the year Seattle was considered a serious threat to knock the L.A. Angels off the throne as AL West champs. The question was why?

Last year Seattle was 85-77 after a hideous 61-101 2008 campaign. Because they lacked offensive firepower, the Mariners front office built the team around pitching and defensive in particular. The move paid off with surprising season.

In the offseason, Seattle added Chone Figgins trying to get another player on base for the middle of the lineup and thought Milton Bradley would find the Puget Sound a more calming area than Chicago. Seattle was 28th last season in runs scored and without changing the main part of the heart of the order, the M’s remain 28th in scoring at 3.5 runs per game, lacking any offensive punch.

With every team placing a greater emphasis on defense, the Mariners edge is negated and Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee can’t pitch shutouts on every start, which helps explain why Seattle is 16-28, -13.9 units.

Sharp sports bettors knew this before the season started. The 2009 Mariners were the 13th team since 1900 to post a winning record after losing 100 or more games. The very next year these teams have a .487 win percentage or roughly 79 wins. (From Bill James 2010 Gold Mine)

What does the home court mean in the NBA Playoffs?

Favored teams thus far in the postseason are 36-13, 31-17-1 ATS when playing in their own building.

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Interleague Baseball is Back

Can you hear the whining already, “I hate interleague play” or “Why do they play these games, nobody cares except for a few series anyways”. Of course most people complaining are either baseball purists who want every starting pitcher to throw nine innings and games to last just over two hours “just like the old days” or online sport betting fanatics who for some reason believe the game is somehow completely different.

Here’s a newsflash, you still have to outscore the other team and you have 27 outs to do so. And if you want to win your wagers, bet the American League until further notice.

The first regular season interleague game was in Texas in June 12, 1997 when San Francisco played the Rangers. The Giants defeated Texas 4-3 (with Darren Oliver the Rangers starting pitcher and he’s back with them this season as reliever) and it’s been all downhill for the National League.

In the previous 13 seasons, the AL has won the season series nine times compared to four for the NL and those from the junior circuit have won the last six in a row, proving their dominance.

The National League actually narrowed the gap last season with 114-138 record, which was better than 2008 when they were 103-149. Where everyone started to take notice of the disparity between the two leagues was 2006. After the AL had won the two previous years 262-241, they hammered the NL 154-98.

National League apologists will blame the designated hitter, more favorable matchups for their counterparts or the weather, but the fact remains over the last six years they are 671-840, .440 win percentage. The answer why for this Grand Canyon-like difference, better organizations in the American League. The top teams have advanced scouting techniques, draft players that fit particular organizations and continually seek improvement.

To see the complete article with detailed charts - click here.

MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

We stay smokin' heading into Monday

Quality winners spilling out of 3Daily Winners with three more W’s on Sunday taking record to 45-23 or pretty damn good. The Dodgers have a new address at wwwwwww.Winners and are in perfect Top Trend tonight. Boston and Yankees is always fun, one team is in a 55-7 winning system tonight. The LCC has another Free Play up for tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – With no disrespect to the former Dukie, but when J.J. Redick is your best player on the floor in the NBA conference finals, your chances of losing go up significantly. Redick was far and away the best and most intelligent Orlando player in the fourth quarter in Game 1, which is really an indictment against the other Magic players.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Red Sox who are average hitting team (BA in .265 to .279 range), against solid AL starting pitcher with ERA under 4.20, with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. If a team was really potent offensively, they would never be such a pooch and playing against them wins 88.7 percent of the time. (55-7)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers are 11-0 in home games off four straight wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection back Oakland A's 8-0 over Seattle.

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Saturday Selections

Sporting a 40-22 record here, our Best System is 86.4 percent in afternoon action. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the AL West and Slick Rick thinks he has another slick pick in MLB action. Good Luck

What I thought today- Besides doing all this, I’m a fan of certain teams but keep it guarded so people don’t think I have favoritism one way or the other. (I seldom bet on teams I like actually) However I am a fan of the Boston Bruins and last night’s loss definitely left a mark.

At the Preakness today, different wagers that include Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Paddy O’Prado.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Giants who average less than a home run per outing, after a win by six runs or more. Since 1997 this MLB system is 51-8, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 0-11 vs. team’s with a terrible bullpen whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 19-5 the last week in baseball and has Boston with Lester tonight.

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Tuesday's Top MLB Systems

On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options.

Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E

The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.

Toronto at Boston 7:10E

The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.

Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). The Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.

Houston at St. Louis 8:15E

The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.

Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.

Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E

For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.

Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.

Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E

The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.

Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER. All systems from the Foxsheets.

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Run Line or Money Line – Yankees case study

The New York Yankees name and brand is known everywhere. Go any place in the world either walking or driving and you are bound to see a Yankees hat or t-shirt. When it comes to betting, the same is true, everyone knows the Bronx Bombers and their storied history and whether you love them or loathe them, everybody has an opinion on the Yankees and those setting the numbers on them are well aware of this fact.

Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to bet against New York, as for well over a decade they have been the best team in baseball year in year out.

The Yankees success has led to frequently inflated money lines by oddsmakers, as they know the wagering public may root for an underdog from time to time, but when it comes down to placing money on wagers, favorites will get the call the vast majority of the time.

With New York having the best talent money can buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in this realm means at least two other victories are required to break even or show a profit.

It is often suggested by handicappers or others in wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are predicting New York wins by two or more runs and if they don’t, your risk is basically cut in half.

The question becomes is this the right strategy?

Broke down last year’s championship regular season on New York and focused first on them being a -155 or higher money line favorite. Of their 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role 82 times or just over half their contests played, which is rather hefty baggage.

For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager Joe Girardi’s club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage when a -155 or higher betting pick.
As you might imagine, a number of the 24 defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter and teammates showed a meager ML profit of +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as decided favorites.

Instead of picking and choosing run lines, let’s convert all 82 contests as good to oversized chalk into run lines.

The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, wagering on the run line.

However, many of our regular wins came with increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W’s that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of +30.55 units.

Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL.

Our 58-24 ML record added up this way.

58 units – 50.2 units = +7.8 units

But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and do the math.

New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to go along with the other 22 wins that added up +22 more units.

Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. Nonetheless look at the difference.

30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8
52.55 - 36.8 = +15.7 units

The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly double’s the amount made of betting the Yankees on the money line in same exact situations. What looks more enticing to you?

Another story frequently spoken in sports betting circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller favorites because of the “value” you are getting on them as compared to higher prices. While this might be true to a point, it’s certainly not a fact.

Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 favorites 56 times, just over a third of the schedule, thus making the argument of “rare” opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, Steinbrenner’s crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of profit.

However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of -130 to -150 they would have came away with +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than playing New York as “valued” favorite 56 times.

The Yankees are the most exaggerated team when it comes to paying the price, nevertheless public teams like Boston, Philadelphia, the Cubs or the Dodgers when they are playing well could well show more profits betting them daily on the run line vs. the money line as good-sized favorites.

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Baseball Systems that are a home run

It’s the first full week of May baseball action and on this Tuesday a number of high quality baseball systems standout. A number of underdogs are really up against solid situations that in the past have been very profitable by playing against them. Will this happen again, read on and make your own decisions.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05E

The Orioles swept Boston over the weekend, but reality came calling in the form of Yankee pinstripes, ending Baltimore’s brief euphoria. The O’s are 10th in the American League in batting at .246 and they will face A.J. Burnett (3-0, 2.43 ERA) as +220 money line underdogs. Here we find road underdogs of +150 or more, batting .260 or less against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) , with a starting hurler that gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start are unbecoming 18-84 since 1997.

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati 7:10E

The Mets have lost three in a row after their eight game winning streak was snapped and are +130 road dogs in the Queen City. Other than last night, the starting pitchers have been roughed up forcing a top notch New York bullpen (2.60 ERA) to start piling up the innings. Surprisingly, underdogs with ML of +100 to +150, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, having worked three straight games throwing four or more innings, are 30-9.

L.A. Angels at Boston 7:10E

The Angels of Anaheim are having serious pitching problems. Among their 15 losses on the year, nine have been by four runs or more, including last night’s 17-8 pasting to the Red Sox, their fourth consecutive road loss. The Halos are +175 dogs and non-favorites being outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season after allowing 15 runs or more are alarming 7-39.

Detroit at Minnesota 8:10E

Joe Mauer might be out of the line-up, yet Minnesota keeps punching the ball around the yard and is second in the AL in batting average (.279) and third in runs scored at 5.4 per contest. In game two of their series with division rival Detroit, the Twins are -135 favorites and home chalk of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games in May, are sharp 43-10 since 2006.

Colorado at San Diego 10:05E

The Rockies got a much needed win last night in San Diego. Colorado’s pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Though the bullpen has a fine 2.48 ERA, they are three of six in save opportunities.

Colorado acquired Greg Smith to be a left-handed starter and thus far his results are atrocious with 7.33 ERA. The Rockies have lost Smith’s last three outings since he has performed even worse with 9.53 ERA and bloated WHIP of 2.471.

Colorado might be catching +135 on the ML, however road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, using a nasty starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts are 7-33, 17.5 percent the previous five seasons.