MLB Series Wagering - Twins at Tigers

For the large majority of the season, Minnesota has been the best team in the American League Central, however they have been knocked off that lofty perch like a bunch of Russian spies, having lost to 11 of 16 and passed by Detroit and Chicago. Where have the Twins (45-40, -2.5 units) gone wrong, it’s simple, but it gets complicated. Minnesota is 19-10 (+4.4) in AL Central games, yet is 19-23 on the road. The Twins can still return to the top of the heap by winning division tilts; however they still have to play 40 more road contests, which will necessitate better results to climb up that ladder.

Detroit (46-37, +7.9) has jumped to the front of line, being winners of seven of last 10, thanks to flexing muscles with the heavy lumber. The Tigers have average 5.9 runs per contest in this stretch and reached double digit hits eight times, including last six outings. The always dangerous Miguel Cabrera is hotter than Jennifer Aniston in Smart Water ads, sporting a 16-game hitting streak. In his last dozen games, Cabrera is batting scorching .467, with nine extra base hits among his 21 base knocks and 13 RBI’s. “I’m looking forward to Friday,” said Cabrera. No kidding the way is swinging the bat.

The Twins trail the Tigers by two games in the standings and the opener sets up as good pitching matchup. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.32 ERA) gives it a go against Detroit, who is 15-9 this season against left-handed starters. Liriano however is 4-2 (3.49) lifetime vs. the Tigers and the Twinkies are tough on Friday nights with 27-12 record since last year.

Detroit ace Jason Verlander (10-5, 3.85) will toe the rubber for his club and is a -127 money line favorite at many online sports betting outlets. Verlander is just 5-7 (4.03) against Minnesota, nevertheless is 34-14 when playing on real grass (Tigers record). Detroit is 28-12 at home vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Game 1 Edge: Detroit

The biggest reason for the Tigers leapfrogging to division leadership is their play at Comerica Park. Detroit is an American League best 30-12 on home turf (MLB finest +15.9 units to start the weekend), batting .287 as a team with an on-base percentage of .354. Their play of late has been even more impressive, having won 15 of previous 17 in MoTown.

Manager Jim Leyland hands the ball to Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81), who after making seven of eight quality starts didn’t have much to show for it (2-3 record). He’s been racked in last three outings (25 hits and15 runs in 16 1/3 innings), with his slider not having usual bite and been hanging too many pitches. The Tigers have dropped last five contests at home when Bonderman faces winning club.

Minnesota will hope Justin Morneau can go for this battle if not the opener after suffering a mild concussion (loose term unless you suffered one) when he was accidentally kneed in the head Wednesday night. Morneau starts the series tied for second in hitting in the AL with .345 average and has 18 home runs along with 56 RBI’s.

For this Fox 4:10 Eastern conflict, Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00) will be Minny’s middle game starter. Blackburn is in danger of falling out of the rotation, allowing four or more earned runs in six of last seven starts, leading to capacious ERA of 9.28. That figure is actually lower than his 9.40 earned run average in road starts and Minnesota is languid 3-15 in Blackburn’s pitching attempts in road uniform.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

Like Saturday, the last contest before the All-Star break will be a day game. This is an area Detroit has flourished with 22-13 record compared to Minnesota’s 14-17 mark.

Earlier this week skipper Ron Gardenhire flipped-flopped starting pitchers Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey to give Pavano (9-6, 3.58), the club’s most consistent starter, one more outing before the break. The Twins right-hander pitches to contact, but doesn’t get into a great deal of trouble by limiting walks. Minny could likely use a strong outing from Pavano since they are 20-39 in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last three seasons.
Detroit will go with 22-year old Andrew Oliver (0-2, 5.93) who is making just his fourth big league start and second versus the Twins. The lefty throws a late moving mid-90’s fastball and if can be more consistent around the plate with slider and change, could develop into a top quality starter.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

Both teams feature excellent bullpens, which suggest how the starters perform, will likely determine the series. Detroit has opening game edge and Minnesota in the closer. That leaves the middle encounter as possible decider. The Tigers are playing solid baseball, with tremendous home record and 27-20 mark in games decided by three or less runs. Though the Twins have taken six of first nine meetings in 2010, Detroit looks like the best series wager.

Sportsbooks series odds: Minnesota +110, Detroit -140

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Sunday Night Baseball Preview

Carlos Guillen’s return from the disabled list might be the spark the Detroit Tigers need to help them remain on top of the AL Central. The first-place Tigers look to stay perfect with Guillen back and complete their first four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox in almost 21 years Sunday night at Comerica Park. These division rivals entered this series tied atop the AL Central, but after Detroit (52-44, +5.3 units) swept a doubleheader Friday and rallied for a 4-3, 10-inning victory Saturday, the Tigers have a three-game lead over the second-place White Sox.

Guillen’s return has helped put the Tigers on the verge of their first four-game sweep of the White Sox (50-48, +2.4 units) since Aug. 18-21, 1988.

After missing over 2 1/2 months with a shoulder injury, Guillen went 3 for 7 with a homer Friday and 2 for 5 with two RBIs, including the game-winning single Saturday to help the Tigers to a third straight victory after losing five of six. “I’m excited to be back, and I’m happy that I’m helping us win,” said Guillen, a lifetime .330 hitter against the White Sox.


While Detroit has struggled to consistently produce at the plate, the presence of a veteran like Guillen should make opposing pitchers a bit more careful when facing a lineup that also features All-Stars Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson and the Tigers are 17-6 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.


“He (Guillen) makes the whole offense different,” shortstop Ramon Santiago told the Tigers’ official Web site.


Granderson’s double off Chicago closer Bobby Jenks with two outs in the ninth tied the game Saturday. Jenks, who has failed to convert his last two save chances, has a 9.45 ERA in his last six appearances.


“I’m not even mad,” Jenks said another shaky outing. “The way things had gone in the last week, we had worked on stuff mechanically, and we got the little kinks worked out. (Saturday), everything was sharp.”


A.J. Pierzynski homered for one of his four hits and Scott Podsednik added three hits with an RBI for the White Sox, who haven’t been able to carry over the momentum from Mark Buehrle’s perfect game against Tampa Bay on Thursday and they have fallen to 8-21 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.


“When he pitched his last no-hitter in 2007, we lost five in a row, and now we’ve lost three,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. “Mark Buehrle, this is all your fault.”


Podsednik is 7 for 17 (.412) in his last four games, while Pierzynski is 6 for 9 in this series. Chicago looks to bounce back while facing Detroit rookie Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) for the first time and they have lost seven contests against right-handed hurlers.


Looking to lighten the 20-year-old’s workload, Porcello made his first start since July 5, and allowed five runs and nine hits in five innings of a 9-7 win over Seattle on Tuesday. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his last three starts.


“I just have to stay sharp physically and mentally,” Porcello told the Tigers’ official Web site. Porcello should benefit from his Tiger teammates being 18-6 at home against teams with winning record.


The White Sox counter with Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00), who allowed one run and four hits in eight innings, but didn’t factor in the decision of a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday after Jenks couldn’t hold a one-run lead in the ninth. Despite the outcome, it was a step in the right direction for Richard, whose 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. In his only start versus Detroit, the left-hander allowed three runs while walking five in 4 2/3 innings, but left without a decision in a 5-4 loss to Detroit on June 8.


DiamondSportsbook.com has Detroit as -140 money line favorites, with the total listed at Un9.5. The Tigers are 12-2 at Comerica Park versus left-hand starters and 16-5 UNDER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this year. The White are 19-39 as road underdogs of +150 or less and are 19-8 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 Eastern on ESPN and manager Jim Leyland’s club is 9-0 in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 in 2009.




Jeff Mezydlo, STATS Senior writer and Doug Upstone contributed to this article.