NHL bettors expect stars to shine in Game 7

It has been quite a NHL Playoffs, with TV ratings up, interest on the rise for the sport and first Game 7 in three years. While Carolina and Edmonton was exciting in 2006, the argument can be made this is the most anticipated final encounter since Colorado and New Jersey in 2001 or even 1994, when the New York Rangers broke their 54-year drought between Stanley Cups.

This Cup Finals have been all about the chalk, with the home favorite winning each time, as only the last game decided by a single goal. The final score in most cases didn’t tell the story. Five years ago New Jersey and Anaheim played seven games, with the home team winning each contest. That series was still played under the old rules and even insomniacs were nodding off watching that style of play.

Today’s version of hockey is about speed and skill, and each team is loaded with both. Detroit has overcome a number of injuries to get to this point and should be as rejuvenated as they have been in some time, playing before the home folks and working for just the second time in six days.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened Detroit as -170 money line favorites (highest of the series) and the wagering public has bet them up to -190. The Red Wings are 11-1 at Joe Louis Arena in the postseason and have won nine in a row at home. They are 9-2 as -150 to -200 playoff favorites.
Detroit will need the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg and struggling Marion Hossa to have big games. Zetterburg and particularly Hossa have not been as effective of late. Hossa admitted to ESPN.com reporter Pierre LeBrun he is pressing. Hossa made the controversial choice of leaving Pittsburgh for Detroit in the off-season and could be 0-2 in Cup finals, should the Wings lose. Detroit players like their chances in decisive conflict.

"We're confident going back to our home building and playing in front of our own fans, so it will be a fun game going back for Game 7," Detroit captain Lidstrom said.

Pittsburgh is 6-6 on the Stanley Cup chase road in 2009, with three consecutive defeats in Detroit, totaling two measly goals. The Penguins are 15-6 with two days between games this season. This is the time for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to elevate their games to superstardom. They felt the taste of bitter defeat a year ago and are 60 minutes from hoisting Cup for first time. Neither has scratched the score sheet the last two games, a third would raise more questions than find solutions for a team that is 43-19 after scoring two or less goals.

Like most hockey confrontations, goaltending arrives front and center for such an important contest. Chris Osgood for the Red Wings has the pedigree and the rings. Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury has a chance to step into greatness. Most people forget Fleury was the first piece to Penguins revival, being just the third goaltender taken as the first draft choice. He played on some wretched Pittsburgh squads before Crosby and Malkin showed up and is still the biggest question mark coming into Game 7. He’s been brilliant at times in the series, but also less comfortable than a player wearing skates three sizes too big in three losses in Motown.

"You have stuff happening in your head, but you have to just block all the outside, all the negative thoughts and just play the game, keep it simple, have some fun," Fleury said. "To have an opportunity like this to get [the Cup], it's awesome."

The total is listed at its lowest figure of the seven games at Un5.5 (the rest were even or over 5.5) and the previous three contests in Detroit played Under. The Red Wings are 9-3-2 UNDER in last 14 Stanley Cup Finals contests, with Pittsburgh 16-5 UNDER after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season.

The winner of Game 7 will have untold joy, which will commence at 8:05 Eastern on NBC, with the favorite 13-3 in last 16 meetings between these teams.

Red Wings turn to respond

A regulation NHL hockey game lasts three 20-minute periods, sometimes these contests only need a few minutes to render a verdict as to who wins the game. This exact scenario happened in Game 4 at The Igloo in Pittsburgh and it might turn out to be the turning point of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2009.

Detroit again outplayed the Penguins in the first period, out-shooting them 19-11 and just 46 seconds into the second period, Brad Stuart gave the Red Wings a 2-1. Detroit was still carrying the action to Pittsburgh and drew a penalty to set up power play and everybody watching knew one more goal and the party in the Motor City was about to go into the planning stages.

After Nicklas Lidstrom had his shot blocked by Maxime Talbot, who passed to Jordan Staal, everything at the Mellon Center started happening in slow motion. Staal who had been a non-factor, glided by Brian Ralafski and beat goalie Chris Osgood for a short-handed goal to pull the Pens even at 2-2.

"It was huge," Sidney Crosby said of Staal's goal. "They had gotten a couple power plays right in a row. I think it was three minutes before he scored that goal, straight power play time. So, that was a huge momentum shift for us to get that. To get that kill. That first one, and then for Jordan to score that was a bonus. And then we bounced back right away."

Most businesses suffering from the recession which they could “bounce back” the way the Penguins did. For a period of five minutes and 37 seconds, Pittsburgh put on a display seldom seen in the Finals, as Crosby and Tyler Kennedy lit the lamp to give their team a 4-2 lead, which they never relinquished. It was a unique display of talented players at their best. Something else occurred which happens about as often as Heidi Montag avoiding a photo-op, Detroit lost their poise.

"You can't have letdowns against a team like that three-on-twos, two-on-ones, because eventually they're going to capitalize," Lidstrom said. "We didn't keep our composure there in the second period."

With the race for the Cup now a best two-of-three, the scene shifts back to Detroit, where the Wings are 10-1 in the playoffs and understand how these things go in late spring.

"We've been 2-2 over the years quite a bit, whether it be with Calgary, Nashville, whether it be in the Anaheim series," Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. "Everyone talks about momentum, but I'm a big believer that momentum is, you know, as good as the next day's start kind of thing. Just get out there and get playing again and go from there. ..the next game's absolutely huge for us."

Detroit has won 49 of last 66 contests at Joe Louis Arena and is -150 money line favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. The formula to victory might be as simple as the math. The Red Wings have won both games the total was Under and lost twice when the score went Over the number. The Wings are 22-3 at home after one or more consecutive Overs this season. With the total at Ov5.5, are oddsmakers telling us Pittsburgh might be the play? Detroit is 7-1 OVER in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of two goals or more.

Pittsburgh is revitalized and has Crosby, Evgani Malkin and Staal all playing well, which could spell large conundrum for Detroit. They have broken the ice on Osgood’s invincibility and Marc-Andre Fleury is back to being dependable puck-stopper. The Penguins are 21-8 following a triumph and have played OVER last six times with a day between games.

Thankfully, the Finals return to NBC starting at 8 Eastern, with the favorite having won last five meetings.

Penguins look to exploit Detroit weakness

Pittsburgh could never have envisioned being outplayed for the better part of two periods on home ice down 0-2 to Detroit and coming away with a victory to close the series to 2-1 in favor of the Red Wings. But that is exactly what happened, thanks to jubilant crowd and the Penguins digging deeper in the third period to win the game.

By the end of the second period, Pittsburgh had taken Detroit’s best shot and lived to tell about. After a 2-2 first period, the Red Wings out-shot, out-played and out-hustled the Pens in the second period. Detroit had 14 shots on goal, compared to four by Pittsburgh, including five that would be considered true goal potential attempts. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury withstood the flurry of Wings’ shots and saved his team for the first time in the Cup Finals.

This must have given Pittsburgh a glimmer of hope as they played wide-open in the third period from the start, peppering Detroit netminder Chris Osgood with shots and laying hits on everyone in a white and red jersey.

This led to Detroit penalty and Sergei Gonchar made them pay, taking 3-2 lead. Detroit played like an older team forced to play third game in four days and mustered only three shots in last stanza.

The Penguins have won 20 of last 25 as playoff favorites and have found one of the few Detroit weaknesses. Much like Rafael Nadal was able to undercover Roger Federer doesn’t play the shoulder height backhand well; Pittsburgh has to be super aggressive in there own end to force penalties. The Red Wings have give up 18 power play goals in 63 penalty kills, for a contemptible 71.4 percentage in the postseason. This is a direct carryover from the regular season, when Detroit was ranked 25th in the league at 78.3 percent. With creative playmakers like Sidney Crosby and Evgani Malkin, the Penguins lit the lamp twice in Game 3 under those circumstances.

Even Detroit players are puzzled. Defenseman Brad Stuart said, "For whatever reason, we've had some trouble with it (killing penalties). If we knew exactly why, we would have corrected it. We're getting some bad breaks. The last goal, we just got caught out there and we're a little gassed. We've come up with some timely kills, but definitely, statistically this doesn't look too good."

Of course the easiest solution is not to commit penalties, however when fatigued or forced to play out of character, miscues occur. Detroit is still in control and a sharper performance could put them one game away from playing decisive game for Stanley Cup. The Red Wings are 44-12 after opponent allows two or fewer goals and are encouraged to possibly have center Pavel Datsyuk back for first time in the Finals. “He’s one of the best players in the world,” Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. “Obviously, we’d like to have him.”

Pittsburgh is -145 money line favorites, with total Ov5.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. The Penguins are 51-16 as home chalk and are 5-0 OVER on one day’s rest. Detroit has now lost last five encounters as road underdogs and is 6-1 OVER when oddsmakers place them in this role.

If the last contest was huge for Pittsburgh, then Game 4 is gargantuan, since a loss means going to the Motor City with Red Wings poised to win another Cup. This conflict will start a little after 8 Eastern on Versus, with the favorite having won last four meetings.

Penguins' focus is on Game 3, not series

The Pittsburgh Penguins players are saying all the right things, it’s just nobody is listening. The Penguins have had bad luck with unusual bounces, ringing the Detroit goalie cage like it’s a doorbell and outplaying the defending Stanley Cup champions for extended periods of time. One problem, Pittsburgh still trails like they did last year 2-0 after two games in the Finals.

Sidney Crosby has had point blank chances all around the Red Wings net, the problem has been, Detroit bodies have been stacked like logs for a log cabin house, with goalie Chris Osgood acting as insulation.

“I think we outplayed them,” Penguins defenseman Hall Gill said. “Last year, we got outplayed pretty badly.”

Those are the kinds of things you say when you have out-shot the opposition 64 -56 and been outscored 6-2 in the first two contests.

Evgeni Malkin is not the pushover he was last year at this time, however he could hardly be called a force and rightfully should be suspended for Game 3, except for another quick NHL office change. Malkin took out his frustration on Detroit‘s Henrik Zetterberg in the closing seconds of last conflict and should have gotten instigator penalty, which carries an automatic one-game suspension when such an occurrence happen in the last five minutes.

However, this is the NHL, who changed around Finals schedule to increase viewership at the last minute and they offered this as reason. “Suspensions are applied under this rule when a team attempts to send a message in the last five minutes by having a player instigate a fight [or] when a player seeks retribution for a prior incident. Neither was the case here," league disciplinarian Colin Campbell.

Campbell must have watching the Travel Channel if he didn’t believe Malkin wasn’t trying to send a message. You can bet the Phoenix Suns wished Campbell was handing out discipline when Robert Horry deliberately threw Steve Nash into scorers table a couple seasons ago and Suns players came to his rescue, drawing similar automatic suspensions, which was enforced.

Pittsburgh returns home, after what amounts to a four game road trip, where they are 6-2 in the postseason and winners of 10 of last 12. The Penguins acted angry and frustrated and are 9-2 off a loss by two or more goals on the road. They can be as hyped up as they want, but unless netminder Marc-Andre Fleury starts playing like he’s in the Finals, instead of like a member of the New York Islanders, it’s a moot point.

Fleury played very skitterish in opener and was better Sunday, until rookie Justin Abdelkader tossed a half-hearted knuckling shot at Fleury, who swung and missed, giving Detroit a huge two goal lead. While the NBC commentators said the Pittsburgh defensemen should have done a better job (and they should have), this is for the Cup and you NEVER allow such a soft goal, IF you have ambitions of being champions.

The Red Wings are ludicrous 18-3 in last 21 Finals encounters and they have been smarter, more productive and had superior goaltending to this juncture.

The way Detroit plays keep away with the puck, it reminds one of watching taller children playing “keep away” with a ball, with younger and smaller kids chasing them around, hollering at them to give up the ball. This strategy has really paid off at the end of games, when tuckered out Pens defensemen have no legs and makes miscues.

Crosby and company might be 12-1 in home games revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, nevertheless Pittsburgh is up against a harrowing situation, as only one of 32 teams have lost first two games on the road and come back to be crowned the champions of hockey and that was 38 years ago when Montreal accomplished the feat.

Pittsburgh is left with little choice other than to place all energy into Game 3, where they are -150 money line favorites with total of 5.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Possibly returning to playoff favorites will help Penguins who are 19-5 in that role. It would appear Pitt has to play Over to win and they are 9-2 OVER after three or more consecutive Unders this season.

Despite playing so effectively, Detroit has lost last four games as underdog and will try to maintain playing so controlled and are 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing two goals or less in four straight tilts.

Amazingly, the Versus Network will have the next two games, starting at 8:05 Eastern in western Pennsylvania, where the Wings have triumphed six of eight times.