MLB Series Wagering- Cardinals at Phillies

The last time the Philadelphia Phillies were playing this well, they were on their way to a World Series title. The Phillies are working on a third consecutive NL East division title, having won 15 of last 17 games. Philadelphia (54-39, +8.5 units) is the most offensive team in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game. The have great diversity, being able to get runners on base and stealing bases to keep the opposing pitcher and defense on edge. If they trail in a contest, the batting order is loaded with big boppers who can help them come from behind.

St. Louis (52-46, -1.2 units) was able to help itself out of mini-slump like many have before them by beating Washington in a rain-shorten makeup game Thursday. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in last 10 games and have seen NL Central lead diminish to 1.5 games. They arrive in the City of Brotherly Love 5-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

J.A. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) will be the opening game starter for the Phillies, which could be his last based on circulating reports. Happ is the main piece Toronto would want in return for Roy Halladay trade and why not. Happ is 26-year old lefthander, has posted 5-0 record since going into the rotation in late May and over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 37 innings. Philadelphia is -135 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of U9. The Phils come into Friday’s tilt 42-20 having won four of their last five games.

St. Louis will attempt to build on Thursday’s victory and might start their newest member, Julio Lugo at shortstop. Lugo was acquired from Boston for outfielder Chris Duncan and is thought as offensive sparkplug to ignite Cards offense which is eighth in the NL in runs scored. Joel Pineiro (8-9, 3.09) has mediocre record, yet has pitched well as ERA indicates. Though not a strikeout pitcher, Pineiro has kept the ball down and has not been taken out of the yard like in the past. Nevertheless, he and Cardinals are 7-17 after a win.

Game 1 Edge: Philadelphia

Game 2 will be Fox late afternoon affair. Philadelphia started this series 38-20 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half the last two years and will entrust Rodrigo Lopez (2-0, 2.60) with another start. Lopez’s spot in the rotation is also in jeopardy with Pedro Martinez not far away from coming off the DL. The 33-year old Lopez has at least shown he should be part of the Phillies pitching staff and could spot start or be used in long relief for a team that has won 12 of last 14 home games.

Manager Tony LaRussa will turn to Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.21) to cool down Philly. Lohse was roughed up on July 12th after coming off the DL by the Cubs, however turned in a more typical performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs against Houston his last time out. The situation definitely favors Charley Manuel’s squad since Lohse and the Cards are 1-10 when he starts on the road.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The series finale has the Cardinals turning to Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68), which has not been a suitable option for awhile for a team in a pennant race. Wellemeyer has ERA over 6.5 in his last eight starts. He’s been hit hard, with right-hand batters hitting .301 and lefties crushing him with .340 average. Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24) of Philadelphia has been just the opposite. After a slow beginning to the season, Blanton is 4-1 with 2.43 ERA since May 21, which covers 10 starts. Blanton has no magical reason why he’s pitched so well. “It's a little more quality pitches, maybe," Blanton said. "Maybe my changeup has come around lately. My sinker is down instead of flat and over the plate, and that always helps. Other than that, I'm just trying to pitch." This Sunday contest is afternoon game and the Phillies came in 18-10 in day ball, compared to the Redbirds 20-17 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

Since I’ve done so poorly picking these series, brought in a guest expert and they’ve been 2-0 this season. Red Wydley has this to say about who wins this series of division leaders. “Philadelphia wins handily, with a sweep possible. The Phillies are scoring 6.4 runs in last 17 games; the Cards have tallied more than five runs twice in last 10. Philadelphia is playing before packed houses every night and has caught fire at home winning 12 of 14. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan should go into Hall of Fame the way he figures out how to maximize pitchers, but I’ll still take the Phillies relievers late in games. The ONLY way St. Louis wins this series is if Albert (Pujols) the Great hits .500 with four dingers. Philly, no problem.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +140, Philadelphia -180

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 4-9

MLB Series Wagering- Brewers at Cardinals

The top two teams in the National League Central Division will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River for a weekend series. Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning nine of 11 and doing so in impressive fashion. The Brewers have scored 6.8 runs per game, while looking like “Harvey’s Wallbangers” (circa 1982), sending 18 balls over the fence. During this same period, opposing teams have only mustered just over four runs a contest, showing Milwaukee has really been clubbing the competition.

After a 2-4 road trip, St. Louis returns home for an attention-grabbing homestand. They start with Milwaukee, followed by the Cubs and commence interleague action against in- state rival Kansas City. Though seldom mentioned publicly, the Cardinals are one of the teams that do not enjoy the Brewers act. Milwaukee is known in baseball circles as being a bit showier about their actions and reactions. Skipper Tony LaRussa being more old-school in baseball traditions, doesn’t always appreciate some of what they do and over the last couple of years there has been a dust-up or two between these division rivals.

Milwaukee is 11-2 having won three of last four games and sends ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) up the hill. Gallardo was handed the role of being top pitcher for Milwaukee and has responded. He’s struck-out better than a batter per inning and has 1.80 ERA in last three starts. If he continues to pitch this way, he’ll improve the Brewers 24-7 record with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games.

The Cardinals will look to get Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) back on track after a pair of rugged outings. Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA in April, but has been bombed in first two starts in May for 13 runs, 16 hits (three home runs) in 10 1/3 innings. The Cardinals are 27-13 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start and Lohse has always been an effective pitcher at home against division teams with 37-17 mark (team’s record) during his career.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Milwaukee as -115 road favorites with total of 8.5 and Lohse is 17-6 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons. (team's record) This being a low scoring affair would not be a surprise, with the Brewers 17-6 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and the Cards 13-3 UNDER at home vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.

Game 1 Edge: Milwaukee

Coming into the series, these were the No.2 and No.3 scoring teams in the National League behind the Dodgers. St. Louis has lost some of its firepower with outfielders Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel on the DL. This means they have to work harder to manufacture runs and would like to believe they have the right pitcher to help slow down Milwaukee offense. Adam Wainwright (3-1, 4.35) and the Redbirds are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and he’s been particularly effective if opponent has winning record with 10-1 mark. Milwaukee will need to have same patience they have shown at the dish all season in being second in baseball in walks and make Wainwright bring the ball up.

They will counter with Jeff Suppan (2-3, 5.50) who was part of the 2006 World Series championship team in the Gateway City. With the off day last Monday, that gave the righthander an extra day of rest and he is 4-0 pitching with five days between games. Suppan has enjoyed facing his old team and is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA since becoming a Brewer. Only negative is the Crew and Suppan are 3-10 in road games against teams with winning records.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The Redbirds might have a slight advantage coming into this game as they were 9-5 playing in daylight compared to Milwaukee’s 6-5 mark before Saturday’s contest. The outcome could be decided early for the series finals. Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) has started poorly in most every start. Too many times, he's dug himself too deep a hole to be able to dig out, with opposing teams hitting an arresting .337 against him.

Milwaukee’s Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82) was on much the same path with 0-4 start, but has bounced back with consecutive wins. Surprisingly, the lefthander has not held lefty hitters in check, with them batting .321 against him compared to .246 by righty’s. Parra’s control is still an issue as he walks almost six batters per nine innings and has yet to get past six innings this season. The Cardinals are 7-4 against left-hand starters this season.

Game 3 Edge: Milwaukee

Milwaukee has won eight of 15 at the newer Busch Stadium and right now is in a great groove. This team has matured to the point of they now play much better on the road (9-7 this season) then in the past. If the Cardinals had all their top guns in the lineup, might be inclined to look their way, but since they don’t, the Brewers look like the play for this series wager.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Milwaukee +130, St. Louis -160

StatFox Edge Pick: Milwaukee

2009 Record – 1-4