Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Wagering Outlook

Their may be encounters that will mean more this weekend to fans of particular teams, but no game will have greater importance on the national scope than this Big 12 battle. Texas Tech can end some the drama by taking down once-beaten Oklahoma and essentially winning the Big 12 South, with just Baylor at home and holding all the tie-breakers. Oklahoma can screw up the Big 12 big time by roughing up the unbeaten Red Raiders and if they win by 10 or more points at Oklahoma State next week, they would probably gather enough support to play in conference championship game, even though Texas had beaten the Sooners and they would have the same 11-1 record.

Senior signal caller Graham Harrell has had a special season and as opposed to other Texas Tech quarterbacks under coach Mike Leach, looks to have real NFL ability, needing to add a some weight. Being able to throw to receivers like Michael Crabtree makes his job easier, nonetheless a formerly underrated offensive line allows all the routes to develop and a trio of running backs with different skills makes them go. For the first time in Leach’s nine year tenure, he has a defense that makes stops and can prevent the other team from scoring. The Red Raiders are 5-4 ATS on the road versus ranked teams the last decade.

The Oklahoma offense has been boiling hot. In their last three games, they have averaged 47.3 points per game in the first half! Since losing to Texas, the Sooners offense has gone into another gear led by Sam Bradford and can control its own destiny of sorts. "Our team is in a great position," said Bradford. "We still have a lot of our goals out in front of us." The Oklahoma defense has been quite vulnerable to the pass (95th in the country), yet still ranks ahead of Texas Tech (99th) or Texas (112th) in quarterback controlled conference. The Sooners are 20-12 ATS in home finales at Norman.

Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS against ranked teams and the running game has been the difference for the increase in offensive production. Since netting 48 yards rushing against Texas, a very good Sooners offensive line has opened up holes that Oklahoma running backs have sauntered thru for 250 yards per game. Bob Stoops secondary may be lousy, but he will make sure to keep Harrell busy with a solid pass rush, something neither Oklahoma State nor Texas could do. Boomer Sooner is 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards play in three consecutive games and Texas Tech is 2-10 ATS on the road after out-gaining opposition by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games.

Besides having to play at Norman, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 34-27 at Lubbock last season, ending their BCS title hopes and will face a team looking for payback. Do you really think coach Leach is worried? He’s not, after watching Oklahoma surrender over 327 yards passing thru the air against a bunch of average Big 12 teams. A big reason why Oklahoma has look so formidable of late is they have forced 15 turnovers in last four contests, have Harrell be careful passing the pigskin and yards and points should be plentiful. The Red Raiders are well aware of the Sooners prowess in moving the ball on the ground; however Oklahoma is 8-22 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game.

Bookmaker.com has home-standing Sooners as 7-point favorites with total of 75.5. The total is certainly inviting with the two schools a combined 14-3 OVER this season.

The visiting team is 5-3 ATS, though these encounters have not necessarily been close with the victor having a margin of 10+ points seven of last nine. Set aside four hours of your time if you plan on watching this one on ABC at 8 Eastern.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football

One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.

Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.

Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.

Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.

Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.

You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.

For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM

Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.

This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.

Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!

If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.

Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.

In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.

The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.

West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.

College Football Game Writeups

The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.