Perspective thoughts

I’ve run out of time before the games are starting tonight to go into great depth about are the best sides and totals from 3Daily Winners, however have had good material about the NBA for today. I’d like to share an experience I had in college basketball wagering this season.

Last night’s trifling loss concluded my CBB season at 183-150, +18 SU units. (I’m dropping pushes) While I’ve had better records on a season, I’ve never been more proud of what I accomplished since on Jan. 23, I was 36-54, a +51 game turnaround.

In addition, I was down over 57 units and ended up officially +46.2 units for the year. Most satisfy. My main point is to keep working hard at whatever you do to be the best you can be. I couldn’t have been in any worse shape, but I rethought what I was doing and changed my approach, if not my methods.

While the world focuses on being No.1 because they believe that’s all that matters, the fact is persevering can be even more satisfying.

What I thought yesterday- What a game last night!

From a coaching perspective, the chess game was really a thing of beauty asboth Coach K and Stevens made a number of tactical moves that were brilliant. I don’t know if you noticed but Butler had a very clear intent to touch/foul Duke after every regular jump shot attempt. Their intent of course was to make the Blue Devils players aware they were going to be right on them and Coach K was pissed near the end of the first half about it.

Midway thru the second half, officials started to pay closer attention and called two fouls and the Bulldogs backed off.

In a world that loves the underdog, I was rooting for Duke. The amount of money I wagered was peanuts and I have not one thing against Butler, but I admire people or business’ that have built something and are able to maintain it at or near the top for long periods. (Legally of course)

If you noticed Coach K was shaking his head in disbelief that his team actually had won the national championship and I’m sure he realized in that moment, this was an improbable collection of players to win a title and it might have been his least talented team in his eight title game appearances.

While unemployment continues to run high and many others fear for their jobs because of potential cuts by employer, what must it be like to be Brad Stevens today? He’ll decide when it time to go, but what a future he’s set for himself.

Blue Monday for Butler and Duke

It comes down to this. Yahoo Sports probably had it best with this headline –David vs. Duke. The lovable Butler Bulldogs have captured college basketball’s imagination with its improbable run to the national championship game with a coach and its best player looking younger than next year’s incoming recruiting class. Big bad Duke, sort of the New York Yankees of the hardwood, is loved by their fans hated by everyone else.

This is setting up as the sequel of “Hoosiers”, just in modern day. A band of talented young men led a by a coach who looks like an AAU coach just out of college goes to the sports title game in the school’s home city and nearby Hinkle Fieldhouse (the team’s real home) is replaced by Lucas Oil Stadium. This is so ridiculous a movie producer would can the screen play as a joke.

There is no joking about the talent of Gordon Hayward, who had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first Final Four contest and was the calmest player you will ever see when introduced for a big game. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has won 25 contents in a row and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, after many had believed they could have lost to UTEP or Murray State in their first two encounters of this tournament.

Even losing coach Tom Izzo was impressed.

“If I was not playing, I'd be a Butler fan," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "I like they way they play, I like their story. They play like a Big Ten team." The Bulldogs are now 26-14 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Duke’s return to prominence has some people feeling blue. The Blue Devils (34-5, 23-14-1 ATS) are back, playing with that confidence that comes from wearing a uniform that many consider a four-letter word. Coach Mike Krzyzewski had his team so well prepared it looked like a scrimmage against West Virginia at various points of the game.

Duke regularly solved the Mountaineers switching defense, getting a number of shot attempts within four feet of the rim. Once West Virginia players became overly conscious of Blue Devils players on the inside, it was target practice, as the Big 3 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer) shredded their defense on 12 for 23 shooting behind the three-point line.

The Blue Devils are 19-11 ATS after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season and know this isn’t about just three players shooting the ball well.

“We won this game as a team," Singler said. "It wasn't just put on my shoulders, or Jon's or Nolan's. We won this game from all sides contributing."

Part of the team is a man possessed, center Brian Zoubek who again pulled down 10 rebounds. His determination, which borders on serious anger, has him pulling down rebounds like mad man from a Rob Zombie movie. As Duke goes after its fourth national championship for Coach K, this is how Zoubek feels. “This is the culmination of four years for me. To have a shot at the championship my senior year, after everything we've been through, is a dream come true."

Duke was near perfect against West Virginia and they are 9-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers which plays a part why DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 128.5. Coach Krzyzewski is making sure everyone knows that despite Butler not having the brand recognition of the team he coach’s, this opponent is no fairy tale.

“I think they're one of the best teams in the country," Krzyzewski said of Butler. "I think a Cinderella would be more if somebody had eight or nine losses and pulled some upsets." The Devils are 12-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game this season and are 8-1 UNDER after they’ve made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots the last three years.

Butler could start this game at a real disadvantage, considering Duke’s size and rebounding ability. Forward Matt Howard did not practice with his team Sunday and is a "game-time decision" according to his coach Brad Stevens. Howard is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and would be sorely missed. Butler guard Shelvin Mack said he suffered cramps and will be ready.

Butler’s help-defense has become the talk of the tournament, along with its incredible patience on offense, which is why they are 12-5 ATS after one or more Under’s this year. The Bulldogs are 11-2 OVER after scoring 60 points or less.

This matchup seems real simple, Butler cannot shoot 30.6 percent like they did against the Spartans and they cannot allow Duke to convert 52.7 percent as they did vs. West Virginia. If the Blue Devils are raining shots, Duke covers and wins convincingly. However, if the Bulldogs find three players to make shots consistently, box-out effectively to draw Duke fouls, where they can march to the charity stripe and convert 73.8 percent like they have all season, well, it is game on.

No matter what, one team will be blue and green with envy.

Mountaineers vs Blue Devils Final Four Matchup

You want intensity? I said do you want intensity! Well get up off the couch, sit straight up with both feet planted firmly on the floor, because Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski have narrowed eyes, with taunt faces, having prepared their teams as only they can for the second Final Four game of the day involving a 1 and 2 seed.

Missed shots, no problem

Of the four finalists in downtown Indianapolis, West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) is the poorest shooting team at 43.1 percent. For the Mountaineers, this just means opportunity for their athletic leapers to spring into action, collect the orange and put it back in the basket. West Virginia averages 15.5 offensive rebounds a game and is 8-1 ATS in road affairs when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds a contest since Huggins returned to alma mater.

Butler University isn’t the only butler in town, as the Mountaineers have Da'Sean Butler, who at least in West Virginia circles has opponents saying “the butler did it”. This is what a Big East coach said about Butler the player.

“[Da’Sean Butler] is so versatile. Our guy did a good job on him. We tried to limit his touches. In their five-man motion [offense], they’ll run 25 seconds off the clock if they don’t get a quick one. They keep moving. Butler has won so many games and hit so many big shots. We kind of overplayed him and let someone else do it. When he has the ball, he can score from ‘3.’ He can penetrate, and he hits the boards hard.”

Long athletes like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith pound the glass and have understood their roles in the offense better as the season has unfolded. It’s little wonder why the ‘Teers have tore off 10-game (7-3 ATS) winning streak.

Dukies have depth

Quietly, a few whispers had been heard that possibly Coach K no longer had the Midas touch in bringing in top-rate recruits to Durham, particularly tall ones. This has led to a few early exits in the Big Dance the past few seasons. This season has been a renaissance for Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS), with frontline players complimenting its best players and adding a physical aggressiveness not seen around the program lately.

Maybe it was the practices, or Mason and Miles Plumlee acting like the Hanson brothers from “Slap Shot”, but all of the sudden the Blue Devils were devilish on defense and demons on the offensive boards. Brian Zoubek finally became the player the Duke coaches had envisioned, being an ill-tempered rebounder and defender, with a real thirst for winning. Lance Thomas had played an undersized center in his career, but was allowed to move to four spot on the floor and his confidence and energy increased.

The Plumlee brothers gained confidence themselves and started moving out opposing players like bouncers at a Durham night spot. Kyle Singler got into the act and Duke was like the Pistons of 1989-90, the “Bad Boys” with polite smiles as opposed to snarls. This Duke team fooled everyone, even the oddsmakers, which is why they are 21-13 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season.

Combat gear required

Duke is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total falling to 131. The Blue Devils do not shoot the rock a great deal better than West Virginia at 44 percent, but tracks down 14.6 offensive rebounds a contest and they are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive boards. Duke is 12-2 OVER in a neutral court setting where the total is 130 to 139.5.
The Mountaineers are the bettor’s best pal with 16-2 ATS record in a NCAA tournament conflicts and 11-4 UNDER after they have covered the spread this season.

Games involving 1 vs. 2 seeds have the higher seed 5-4 SU in the Final Four since field was taken to 64 teams. Two betting twists of note: two seeds off a double digit spread win are 1-7 ATS in this round, but a top seed that is unbeaten ATS to this point is 1-5 ATS in next outing.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Tally

Just when it seemed impossible for this year’s tournament to get any better we were given the instant classic between Kansas State and Xavier in double overtime, along with Tennessee in two titanic struggles, both coming down to the last shot in the last two rounds. As we move ahead, here is a wagering overview of the tournament to date.

Once the Sweet 16 arrives, Cinderella’s usually finds the clock striking midnight and indeed it did for St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, Cornell and Washington, losing by an average of 15 points per game. High seeds were not completely immune from being struck down as Syracuse and Ohio State were both laid to rest. Still, favorites and higher seeds were 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS.

In this round, if a team was favored by 7.5 or more points or four or less, they were 3-0 against the number. Totals were also decidedly one way in the Thursday-Friday matchups with the UNDER an overwhelming 7-1.

The Elite Eight brought far different results. Here the favorites were 1-3 SU and ATS. In Kentucky’s case, No.1 seeds are now .500 SU against No. 2 seeds in the last 36 meetings in this round, thus underdog players made out well. Nonetheless, coach John Calipari has to be shaking his head thinking his team did not allow a two-point basket in the first 20 minutes against West Virginia and still trailed.

The higher seeds were 2-2 SU and ATS over the weekend, with the total doing a reversal at 3-1 OVER.

With just three games left to be played in this year’s heart-throbbing NCAA tourney, here are the all the betting numbers.

Favorites - 38-23 SU, 29-31-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 41-19, 30-29-1 ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -16-1, 9-8 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less -10-17, 9-18 ATS
Totals – 35-26 UNDER
Totals over 140 – 16-12 UNDER
Totals under 130 – 9-6 UNDER

Looking ahead, all four coaches are perfectly suited for this tournament, with 20 of the games decided by five points or less. That means it comes done to execution and the will to win and performing under pressure. Coaches Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski are known for their hard-driving styles that demands excellence and don’t sell Brad Stevens short, as he is known for designing the “Butler way” of playing basketball.

Here is wagering tip. If either Final Four encounters goes into overtime, bet against the winner in the title game. In the last three tournaments, the overtime winner is head-shaking 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in next outing (Western Kentucky and San Diego are discounted from 2008, since they played each other after overtime games), including 0-5 SU and ATS this season.