Saturday night is about Wildcats

High seeds Kentucky and Kansas State will complete a full day of Round 2 action after dark in locations east of the Mississippi River. Each of these Wildcat squads are favored, but not by large amounts as they seek to avoid the upset and move on to Sweet 16.

Wake Forest will have to play big

Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) played their most complete game in a month in taking down Texas 81-80 in OT as five-point underdogs. Guard Ishmael Smith’s last shot was a swish, which helped him finish with 19 points, 12 boards and a victory. The next task will be far more daunting and you can forgive coach Dino Gaudio for inquiring about what eligibility the Ivan Brothers have left after watching tape on Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS).

The Wildcats are the biggest team in college basketball, having NBA-size in the frontcourt and they looked similarly imposing in handing East Tennessee State its exit papers 100-71 as 18.5-point favorites. Though Wake Forest’s strength is its baseline players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Kentucky is 6-0 ATS on the road versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game on the season. The Demon Deacons are nine-point underdogs, but that might work for them since Wake is 12-4 ATS catching points the last two seasons, losing by one point a game in that situation.

K-State out to tames Cougars offense

The other Wildcats had a similarly easy time with first round foe North Texas, as Kansas State (27-7, 20-9 ATS) turned the Mean Green into Gumby with 20-point thumping. The Wildcats guard tandem of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen will have to not only score, but play defense against BYU (30-5, 19-13 ATS) who can match points with any team in the country.

The Cougars need two overtimes to finally frustrate Florida 99-92 and grab a fairly remarkable cover. Remarkable only begins to tell the story of Jimmer Fredette, who finished with 37 points. Fredette is the heart and soul of BYU and his point total matched Danny Ainge from 29 years ago, for tournament school record. The junior guard was clutch, with 29 of his points scored after halftime. The Kansas State guards are not dutiful defenders and the Wildcats are only 5-14 ATS when out of Manhattan versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game.

K-State is 4.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 155 and they are exquisite 7-1 ATS facing teams who make eight or more three bombs a game on the year. The Cougars will try and force the pace of the game even higher, as they are 6-0 ATS in road games when they score 81 to 86 points.

Welcome to the Dance

Had a bad feeling about yesterday’s tremendous system as Dallas built huge lead and just coasted in failing to cover giving us 1-2 day. We start with a system this doesn’t quite make the grade for us at 75 percent; however it was the best one I could find today. The Top Trend is kind of a shocker if you were not aware and the LCC looks to keep on rolling in with Top Free play. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Have a great day and enjoy!!!!!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against neutral court teams like UTEP, with a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half. This non-qualify system is 45-15 ATS, including 5-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Wake Forest is 1-10 ATS in NCAA Tournament games.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC consensus is hotter than a Papa John’s pizza with five straight winners and is behind Richmond (6-0) today.

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What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Trying to follow up 3-0

A quality 3-0 Saturday has us feeling pretty good today so let’s do it again. Have a nasty 87.9 percent system in the MAC tourney. In the Sun Belt, this team has yet to cover as a dog and Kendall had a solid Saturday and goes ACC huntin’ today with Best Bet. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – Does North Carolina ever stink!

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ball State, who are average three-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent), against a good three-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or less. This system registers at 87.9 percent, with 29-4 ATS record.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Denver U. is 0-9 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by nine points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 22-10 this week and had winner here yesterday. He’s bangin’ Wake Forest as a short home favorite for top play.

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Saturday College Basketball Matchups

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Hoping for that Super Tuesday

Nice call by Ron of the LCC in his first visit at 3Daily Winners. He has another free NBA play ready to unload today. Our Top Hockey Trend was a winner yesterday, so why not deliver another. The Best System is in the NBA and in the Windy City at 25-5 ATS. Good Luck

What I saw today- In college basketball today, the totals released by oddsmakers are under siege, which is noticeably with such a limited card. Offensive-minded Seton and Villanova went from 163 to 166 and another Big East conflict has Providence and Syracuse moving up three digits from opening number of 166.

Here is a look at what bettors are thinking with the numbers heading downward and conventional wisdom is this would be more smart money than anything.

Towson/Drexel 130.5 to 127.5
Ole Miss/Kentucky 157.5 to 151
SMU/So. Miss. 123 to 119
Mich. State/Wisconsin 126 to 123.5
Northeastern/Delaware 128.5 to126.5
Air Force/S.D. State 119 to 116
Jackv. St./ Tenn. St. 142 to 140

The only side that has seen any significant line movement is Wake Forest going from -7.5 to -6 at home against Miami-FL, who is 6-4 and 5-4 ATS on the road.

In professional basketball, NBA bettors are seeing more defensive game in Cleveland, with the Memphis and the Cavs having been altered from 201.5 to 199. The Clippers and Bulls bash has gone from 195 to 196.5.

All quiet on the ice, with all NHL moves less than 10 cents.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like the Chicago Bulls off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This system chimes in at 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent since 2005.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The Maple Leafs are 0-15 against the money line against defensive teams permitting 2.55 goals game or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron likes Oklahoma City to upend Atlanta on their home floor.

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ESPN announcer swap worth listening to

For a second straight year, ESPN will flip-flop its top announcing teams from college and pro basketball to do games in the other sport. Last year Dick Vitale and Dan Shulman doing a NBA game was honestly no big deal, since Dicky V and Shulman have done games in the past and Vitale’s delivery doesn’t come across the same in pro venue with quieter surroundings.

However, Mike Breen, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will be calling a college game again and they offer different insights, since they have a pro mentally and view the game from that point of view. Their player and coach opinions are interesting and their comments (at least from last year) about collegiate referees were hilarious.

Wake Forest at North Carolina 7 Eastern

The main story line the trio is likely to follow is what is wrong with the Tar Heels. With a 12-6 record, North Carolina doesn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25 and their under-performing ways are further shone with 6-10 ATS record. Since returning to Chapel Hill, coach Roy Williams has never suffered a three-game losing streak, however the answers as to why they are bumbling are present.

North Carolina doesn’t value the possession of the basketball and despite trying to play a faster pace like previous Tar Heels teams; the guard play isn’t there to do so. Guards Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard are part of the reason North Carolina averages almost 17 turnovers a game and the front court players though talented, are not especially good at creating in the half court. Look for Wake Forest to dial up pressure from the opening tap, since the Tar Heels have fallen behind by 20 points in each of their last two games and are 7-20 ATS in ACC contests.

Wake Forest (12-4, 6-7 ATS) has issues of their own, mostly to do with shooting the rock. The Demon Deacons shot 45.3 percent from the field, however that number has been plunging, with three of last five outings below 40 percent. Wake Forest lacks consistent shooting beyond 18 feet and does much better when playing 94 feet. Off their 70-50 drubbing by Duke, Wake is 15-29 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has North Carolina as -6.5 favorite with total of 157.5. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Demon Deacons are 18-34 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or more games on the season.

Look for the NBA guys to really like Al-Farouq Aminu, a 6-foot-9 forward for Wake Forest, if he keeps working on his shooting.

Utah at San Antonio 9 Eastern

One thing hasn’t changed since Vitale used to do radio playoff games in the NBA after his college basketball duties were completed, the San Antonio Spurs are still a very good home team and Utah doesn’t do much in a visitor’s uniform.

The Spurs (25-15, 21-18-1 ATS) are 17-6 (13-9-1 ATS) at the AT&T Center, winning by 9.6 points per game. San Antonio doesn’t have the look of a team ready to compete for an NBA title, especially this month, with a 6-5 SU and ATS mark. Granted the playoffs are still a half a season away, but coach Gregg Popovich is still looking for answers now and down the road, even utilizing little used center Ian Mahinmi. The Spurs do have rebounding deficiencies and a contributor with size could help.

Utah (23-18, 23-16-2 ATS) is 7-12 away from Salt Lake City, though is a competent 9-9-1 ATS. The Jazz have frequently been off key this season, though recent games have shown improvement, winning four of five and they are 5-0-2 ATS in last seven tries.

Utah has same identical record to Oklahoma City, tied for the last playoff position in the West. The team believes they have turned a corner and will start playing better basketball. “We've lost some games we should have won," Carlos Boozer said. "That being said, we're still right in the thick of things. If we can put together a nice little win streak, we can make up some ground." The Jazz are off 119-112 loss to Denver as seven-point underdogs and are 10-3 ATS after a defeat.

The series is dominated by the home team, which is why the Spurs are a 6.5-point favorite. The white clad team is 20-6 ATS and San Antonio is 16-5 ATS hosting the Jazz. These two teams have tended to play high scoring contests, thus keep an eye on the total of 194, since the total is 8-1 OVER in Southwest Texas.

College Basketball Betting Weekend

The college basketball slate is full of games for Saturday and Sunday, with a myriad of betting choices. Many sports bettors love the action and the ability to view what they’ve bet on and we have keyed on the most important games of the weekend in detail. Check out the most pertinent of information before making your selections this weekend. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 16

Dayton at Xavier (-5.5,135) 11:00E ESPN2

The weight of expectations starts to take hold as Dayton (13-3, 7-6 ATS) is the favorite to end Xavier’s run as Atlantic-10 champions. The Flyers, under coach Brian Gregory, are built with defense and rebounding as the cornerstones and this season they have a wider array of players that can put the ball in the basket. Forward Chris Wright has led the way for Dayton as he tops the team in both scoring and rebounding, while sophomore guard Chris Johnson is second in points scored, from a fairly balanced attack. The Flyers have won last two games, but failed to cover each and are 4-1 and 2-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread this season.

Xavier (11-5, 10-5 ATS) might not be a powerful as recent years; however they are still extremely dangerous. New coach Chris Mack has been tinkering with the lineups and inserted sophomore center Kenny Frease at the end of last month. Frease has added size, scored a few points and mostly importantly improved the rebounding, giving Musketeers fans hope they might be stronger A-10 contender than presumed. Xavier does need greater contributions from Jordan Crawford, the team’s only true swingman. His scoring has been uneven most of the year for Musketeers team that is 22-12 ATS at home the last few seasons.

In the last dozen years, Xavier is 12-0 SU hosting Dayton with 8-4 ATS record.

Syracuse at West Virginia (-4.5,144) 12:00E ESPN

It’s the middle of three road games for the Orangemen, heading to Morgantown. As good as Syracuse (16-1, 10-3 ATS) has been, they’ve only faced one real physical team all season which was Pittsburgh and they lost. West Virginia (13-2, 6-8 ATS) will be the second such foe on the schedule with those qualifications and more talent. This becomes a critical game for Syracuse, since if they don’t compete in standing up with more physical style the Big East plays, every team the rest of the year will look to push and shove the Orange around. Syracuse has won and covered three in a row and is 15-5 ATS following a SU win.

Forward Devin Ebanks is known as a scorer, but has shown a maturity to his game, sacrificing shots, by passing the ball to teammates that have more wide open shots and rebounding the ball. In other words, the kind of unselfish play coach Bob Huggins wants. Da’Sean Butler is another playing a high level, being mentioned already for various Big East honors. West Virginia will certainly test Syracuse’s manhood and the loud Mountaineer fans will try to make an impact. This is astonishing; coach Huggins teams are just 8-20 ATS at home vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points.

The ‘Cuse is 14-3 and 11-6 ATS in last 17 outings vs. the ‘Teers.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (-7,155) 2:00E ESPN

The Yellow Jackets (12-4. 7-4 ATS) have made great strides of improvement this season, thanks to coach Paul Hewitt’s recruiting efforts, yet the foundation of this club is 6-9 forward Gani Lawal. The junior received an appraisal last spring that he was not a first round draft choice in the eyes of NBA personnel and took the constructive criticism to heart. He’s emerged as a team leader, showing the first year players what it takes to succeed at this level and Lawal will have to have a big game against North Carolina’s tall timber in the frontcourt. The Yellow Jackets are only 46-70 ATS in road games vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their attempts.

Watching North Carolina (12-5. 6-9 ATS) play this season, is much like a buffet restaurant. The vast amount of food looks delicious, you load up the plate, but half way thru you realize the food doesn’t have a lot of taste and in the end; you are left content but not satisfied. That is what Tar Heel basketball has been to this point, often good, sometimes remarkable, but over 40 minutes, too many dead spots to make it truly satisfying. Turnovers are what continue to plague North Carolina and it’s just not the guards, all players have been guilty. Unless they clean this area up, they will go on as poor ACC wager with 6-14 ATS record.

Since ’97, the Tar Heels are 11-0 and 6-5 ATS against Georgia Tech.

California at Washington (-1.5,159) 2:30E FSN

The Cal Bears (11-5, 8-7 ATS) have been among the more disappointing teams in the country this season. They along with Washington figured to be the best of a mediocre Pac-10 lot. Unfortunately, like many teams that are perimeter oriented, sometimes the shots don’t fall and opposing teams are better prepared this year for California’s long range attack. Coach Mike Montgomery is hoping for the continued development of centers Markhuri Sanders-Frison and Max Zhang to create more options for team. The Bears won at Pullman 93-88 Thursday and are 2-7 ATS after scoring 90 or more points.

Washington (11-5, 4-12 ATS) too has disappointed, in spite of a strong returning crew and nice blend of reserves and incoming freshmen. The Huskies weaknesses have been the defense does not man up well and is easier to break down in longer possessions or if they don’t create steals. When forced into a half-court game, the outside shooting has not been reliable and opponents keep the lane locked tight, preventing points in the paint. Above all, Washington has shown a decided lack of toughness. They stifled Stanford 94-61 as nine-point home favorites in last outing and need to prove they can play well again, being 2-7 ATS this season after a victory.

California is 4-1 SU and ATS vs. Washington, including two wins and covers at Bank of America Arena.

Purdue at Northwestern (+6.5,132) 5:30E BTN

Basketball prognosticators knew Purdue (14-2, 8-8 ATS) was going to be a very good team coming into the season. The Boilermakers had experience, continuity of playing together for a couple of years and a strong work ethic. What has transformed Purdue into a national power is the elementary aspects of basketball. They force almost eight more turnovers than they commit, they are much better rebounding team than a season ago and they make roughly 75 percent of free throw attempts to ice away games. They have hit a bump the last couple of contests, not playing 40 minutes of basketball in either game. Purdue will have to find themselves quickly since they are 3-8 ATS on the road.

Northwestern’s (12-4, 8-4 ATS) confounding start landed them in the Top 25 briefly; however conference play has brought about new challenges. The Wildcats despite severe injuries had thrived because of the play of mighty mite, 5’8 Michael “Juice” Thompson. He ignited the offense, scoring and setting up teammates. Big Ten opponents had taken notice and have squeezed “Juice” not allowing him to roam as freely. Conference clubs have also been prepared for the Wildcats various zone defenses. Northwestern lost to Wisconsin at home in last encounter and is 5-9 ATS after a defeat.

The Cats have played well against Purdue with 10-4 ATS record.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Connecticut at Michigan ( ) 1:30E CBS

The Huskies (11-5, 5-8-1 ATS) knew coming into the season, despite plenty of size, they were not going to have the same scoring power with the departure of Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Their absence has expanded the roles of Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards and both have taken the challenge and become more complete players. What coach Jim Calhoun is seeking is Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu to be more valuable contributors, instead of players just using up minutes. With its size, UConn is 11-3 ATS when they grab 10 or more rebounds than their opponents.

Michigan (9-7, 5-7 ATS) knows what to expect every night from Manny Harris, being one of the best players in the Big Ten. And coach John Beilein knows what to look for from DeShawn Sims, his most versatile performer, who creates matchup issues for opponents. What has been lacking most of the season is that dependable third option. Laval Lucas-Perry, Stu Douglass or Zack Novak have all had their moments, nevertheless, sometimes they have failed all together also. With Connecticut’s decided size edge in this contest, the Wolverines cannot afford to make less than 30 percent of three point attempts, since they are 3-16 ATS when they do.

Wake Forest at Duke ( ) 8:00E FSN

The Demon Deacons (12-3, 6-6 ATS)have one major weakness – outside shooting. Against teams they can overwhelm with their physical skills, the issue still persists, however is less noticeable. Playing against better quality competition, particularly those in the ACC that know their conundrum, well that is how the losses start accumulating, especially on the road. Freshman forward Ari Stewart can score from the outside, yet he is still learning about shot selection. Wake Forest can play different styles and is 13-4 ATS against offensive teams like the Blue Devils scoring 77 or more points a contest.

Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has shown to likely be the best team in the ACC, but they are for from infallible. Kyle Singler had a few off games of late and Nolan Smith will disappear at various points in games. As opposed to the last few seasons, the Blue Devils have room for improvement. Guard Jon Scheyer has been a rock at the point and the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, are improving rapidly providing more help up front. Duke 34-18 ATS on home court when they attempt 63 to 69 shots and 8-4 ATS off a SU win this season.

Duke is 20-5 and 18-7 ATS vs. Wake Forest, including 11-0 SU and ATS since 1997.

Time to run up three Winners

A mildly disappointing 1-2 day, as Milwaukee missed covering by a single point. Steve of the Left Coast Connection has been brilliant in the NBA to date and offers his Best Bet. The Best System is 84.8 percent in a contest involving the Big 10 (11) and the ACC. The Top Trend is nearly perfect in college hoops. Good Luck

What I learned today – New Orleans ran 50 plays from scrimmage on Monday and averaged 9.6 yards per play. Since the 1970 merger only two teams have had as high an average yards per play while running a half-century of plays in one game: the Jets against the Colts in 1972 (10.6) and the Rams against the Chargers in 2000 (9.9). The Saints and Colts are first teams ever to start 11-0. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Wake Forest, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. The record reads 28-5 ATS the last dozen years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The San Francisco Dons (as opposed to the Charley’s) are 1-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC is 40-21in the NBA and is on Denver tonight.

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ACC/Big Ten Tuesday Preview

This 11- game event should be renamed – The Big Ten’s Challenge to defeat the ACC. If the Big Ten Conference had realized they would be zero and 10 in this matchup, they probably would have opted out like some of the football teams do and maybe gone after the Big Sky, however at least soon to be college players learn to see how to take defeat gracefully watching them play. Four games are on tap for Tuesday and two contests involve ranked teams from the Top 25. Here is Tuesday night’s preview. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Michigan State at North Carolina (-2) 9:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch of last season’s national championship game with the Spartans and Tar Heels. North Carolina had one good and one bad game in preseason NIT, but has talent. The year after the Heels won their last championship, they essentially started over with a freshmen class that that ended up winning last year’s title. This club has far more experience with the likes of Deon Thompson, Marcus Ginyard and Deonte Thompson. Sophomores Larry Drew II and Tyler Zeller just need playing time and Drew in particular has to play better and protect the ball, committing too many turnovers. North Carolina has 29-12 ATS record in non-conference tilts and has covered last six against the Big Ten.

Kalin Lucas proved his worth last year and is the Michigan State team leader. With Raymar Morgan being less than 100 percent for the second year in a row, Durrell Summers is comfortably fitting into the role of second choice in the Michigan State pecking order. Summers expanded game makes him a more versatile asset. The Spartans have already been tested; having Gonzaga outplay them for 30 minutes before prevailing 75-71 and being upset by Florida 77-74 as 3.5-point favorites, thanks to 2-10 from behind the arc. Michigan State is 19-9 ATS away from East Lansing in December games.

Michigan State is the only Big Ten team to have winning record (5-4) in Challenge and the Tar Heels are 5-5.

Wake Forest at Purdue (-10.5) 7:00ET ESPN

The Demon Deacons are minus their two top scorers from a year ago yet might end up being a better team, as players that played secondary roles will be featured more. That includes forward Al-Farouq Aminu and center Chas McFarland. It is up to Ish Smith to be facilitator at the point guard and coach Dino Gaudio is very pleased to pick up JC transfer Konner Tucker and freshman Ari Stewart, both excellent shooters, which has been a sore spot with the team the last few years. This problem resurfaced against William & Mary in 78-68 loss, shooting 35.1 percent from the field and making just half their free throw attempts. Wake Forest is 26-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and near perfect 8-1 vs Big Ten in this competition.

Purdue hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start they would like; no they are playing good basketball, but have been hampered by two key injuries. Freshman big man Sandi Marcius was lost for up to six weeks to a broken foot early in preseason practice and point guard Lewis Jackson with injured foot. That means increased minutes for Keaton Grant, which might make the Boilermakers a little less explosive, but better defensively. E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson are who drives the Purdue bus and this trio is keeping them in the fast lane, winning Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands with a thrilling one-point win over Tennessee.

The Boilers are 3-11 ATS in December games over the last three seasons and 2-6 SU in this event.

Maryland at Indiana (+4.5) 7:30E ESPN2

The Terrapins return to action after a disappointing 1-2 record in Maui, losing rather easily to Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both who might be bigger factors in their respective leagues than first thought. Maryland didn’t receive the backcourt play they expected and were soundly beaten on the glass, which was big factor. Maryland is 6-2 ATS off a loss and 4-1-1 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

The rebuilding process continues in Indiana and junior transfer Jeremiah Rivers is making his youthful companions better, dealing the ball with aplomb. Christian Watford and Maurice Creek have been among the benefactors and Verdell Jones III has also been on the receiving end of assists. The Hoosiers are 1-6-1 ATS after covering the spread.

Virginia Tech at Iowa (+3) 9:30E ESPN2

The Hokies are giving headaches to backers in spite of 4-1 start. Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS, failing to put the ball in the basket with any level of consistency. Their early season slate does not in any way represent what they will face in the ACC, yet only once have thet shot over 45 percent. They are 1-7 ATS off a SU victory and 0-5 vs. the Big Ten.

Iowa is off to one of their worst start in decades, with defections, too many young players and a general lack of talent to play at a high level. At least they will have the crowd on their side, though nobody will magically appear to be a post player. Coach Todd Lickliter is already getting heat and they are forced to rely too heavily on the three-ball, with no threat down low. Teams are pressuring the perimeter, not respecting the Hawkeyes ability to tabulate points in the paint. Iowa is 17-37 ATS in most recent non-conference games.

Handicapping for 2009-10 College Basketball

With North Carolina cutting down the nets in Detroit, the 2008-09 college hoops season is history and what can happen next season keeps alumni contributing to their school’s athletic fund and dreaming of sitting behind the team bench in next year’s Final Four. The cry comes out “if we only would have had better facilities” we would have landed that five-star recruit from Montrose Oak Prep Academy.

For the sports bettor, it is never too early to start looking at next year in college hoops. With so many teams and players and coaches moving to a new program, college hoops requires the most preseason handicapping preparation of all sports. Actually, this is the best time to start taking notes while this current season is still fresh on your mind. Hours invested today in study and research are reminiscent of what retirement accounts and mutual funds used to be like: things that grow in value as time goes by.

It is time to start checking schools recruiting classes and incoming, as well as outgoing, transfers. When you actually check the number of transfers that even actually play for their new school, it is alarmingly less than you would expect. Or they fail to live up to lofty expectations, such as the case of originally highly touted 6-10 Eric Boateng who went to Arizona State from Duke. Boateng averaged less than 8 minutes and two points a game this past season.

We’ve already had some major coaching changes, the most notable being the hiring of Memphis’s John Calipari to fill the departure of Billy Gillespie at Kentucky. Mark Gottfried at Alabama finally used up his nine lives while Tony Bennett departs Washington State bringing his Princeton-style offense to Virginia. Mark Fox travels from the University of Nevada to replace Dennis Felton at Georgia. If any other larger schools have job openings, expect to see Creighton’s Dana Altman or New Mexico’s Steve Alford names tossed around.

The pressure for getting the top recruits increased the day the NBA said they required draftees to be one year removed from high school and must have their 19th birthday, or later, in the year of the draft. This rule, in theory, was going to help prevent any more Korleone Youngs, the 1998 poster child of the ill fate that can happen to a high-schooler who shouldn’t go pro early.

However, except for Brandon Jennings who opted for playing overseas in his first year out of high school, we still are seeing a number of “one-and-done” college freshmen. With the continued improvement in early development of players, these one-year players can be program-changers. They can also have a negative effect on a program that can’t reload quickly with capable replacements.

Underclassmen have until April 26 to declare themselves eligible for the draft. Provided they don't sign with an agent, they then have until June 15 to withdraw their names. Some on this year’s list who have already declared are no surprise. Naturally, there will be some “Korleone Youngs” who jump ship too early.

Wake Forest could be the hardest hit school for early professional departures with So. 6-8 James Johnson and Fr. Al-Farouq Aminu most likely leaving and So. PG Jeff Teague also a candidate. Georgetown’s disappointing season could continue into the off-season with 6-8 DaJuan Summers already signing with an agent and 6-10 Fr. Greg Monroe likely to leave.

Both Arizona schools will take a step backwards next year with the Wildcats watching Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger go pro early and possibly even point guard Nic Wise. The Sun Devils will say goodbye to So. James Harden.

Rebuilding next year will be Utah and UAB who both lose four seniors. Both teams had very little depth so the cupboard is fairly bare for returning players. Utah has a very good recruiting class lined up but UAB recently lost a top 5 recruit to Memphis, DeMarcus Cousins. Teams rebuilding with young players should be watched for potential play-on status once conference action gets started and the newbies are learning to play as a team. Early failures can give value later in the season.

With Calipari packing up the U-Haul, recruit Cousins might venture back to the Mike Davis UAB fold or very well could follow Calipari to UK. Currently, this is one of college hoops biggest unsolved mysteries. Who can Calipari bring to UK and who will go elsewhere. Outgoing Kentucky coach Gillespie had signed a fine Wildcat recruiting class including top-flight center Daniel Orton. As of the writing of this article, most everything was up in the air on what would happen.

As judged by one recruiting service, the #1 prospect John Wall, was tempted with Memphis but looks like he is headed to Duke. Lance Stephenson, a top ten recruit, appeared to be signing with Kansas on March 31 but with the Calipari news, he has delayed his announcement. While Stephenson liked Memphis originally, he appeared to be going elsewhere because another top ten shooting guard recruit, Xavier Henry, had already inked with Calipari at MU. With Calipari leaving Elvis’ hometown, it appears so is Henry as he is possibly signing with Kansas, the alma mater of his father, former Jayhawk standout Carl Henry. Another part of the story is he would like to bring his older brother with him, C.J., who was a walk-on at Memphis last year.
This is becoming better than a soap opera. It appears some recruit’s decisions will be predicated upon who is named the new coach at Memphis. Former NBA coaches Reggie Theus and Avery Johnson are at the top of the list.

Currently, Kansas has the #7 rated incoming class and would get a huge boost if either top 10 recruit, Henry or Stephenson, commits to Kansas. If Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins don’t leave early for the NBA, Kansas should be ranked in the top 3 in preseason polls.

Definitely battling for Big 12 supremacy next year will be Texas. The Longhorns lose undersized shooting guard A.J. Abrams but he will be quickly forgotten when 6-3 Avery Bradley arrives in Austin. Bradley was the MVP for the USA Today’s #1 ranked Findlay Prep team of Henderson, NV, who won the inaugural National High School Invitational Sunday. The Horns have the #3 rated recruiting class and will be a top ten team next season. They could move closer to #1 if big man Dexter Pittman continues his improvement in skills and conditioning and Damion James progresses as much next year as he did this year.

Marquette loses three senior starters but has a strong five-man recruiting class. North Carolina has snagged four McDonald’s All-Americans for their upcoming season, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Duke have two each. Nova also has inked 6-9 Mouphtaou Yarou, a surprise non-participant in the Mickey D Classic. The Wildcats’ two McDonald’s participants, both guards, were very impressive and will keep the flame burning in Philly. Duke’s players will bring some needed size to the Blue Devils.

The MVP of the McDonald’s Classic, 6-9 Derrick Favors, will remind Georgia Tech fans of Amare Stoudemire. The Yellow Jackets have a top five class with 5 quality recruits signed that should breath life into what was a stagnant offense this past season.

Tom Crean will have Indiana pointed in the right direction next year with a top ten class. UConn might be facing some stiff NCAA penalties as well as losing 3 seniors and in all probability, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet. With the comments that Connecticut Coach Jim Calhoun is making, you won’t see him on the sidelines next year but in the ESPN studio giving commentary. (after all, he doesn’t live far from their studios)

Cross-town rivals UCLA and USC both have top ten incoming classes. The Bruins lose much more through graduation, though. Pitt loses three senior starters including Sam Young and Levance Fields and probably will see DeJuan Blair opt for the NBA. Not inking an overly strong recruiting class does not bode well for the Panthers next year.

How about a team on the rise that is totally unexpected: Oregon State. Coach Craig Robinson, the President’s brother-in-law, landed two four-star guards and has two Australian frontcourt studs coming in. The surprise of post-season play is also the surprise of the recruiting season.
Do your research now and start uncovering the surprises for the 2009-10 season.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority knows everything basketball and much more.

Time to Tip it Off

We were creamed last night with three dreadful plays by the final scores. At least we have a good attitude going into today because of the events that lie ahead. We have a two-pronged system today that is 83.3 percent and has NCAA Tournament play today and tomorrow. For those liking the classic 5vs 12 upset, have a trend that really fits. I bring back the Left Coast Connection because they have another consensus play. Good Luck (I really mean it)

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after one or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4th or higher in the NCAA tournament. This system is impressive 25-5 ATS and gives us Washington and Wake Forest.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Western Kentucky is 14-1 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Though they got it wrong the other day, the LCC has nine bettors on UCLA and none on VCU.

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Bounce Back Sunday at 3Daily Winners

The one bright spot was from our Midwest contact, who was on the nose about UW-Milwaukee, thanks friend. He helped what was otherwise a pretty dismal day at 1-3. I have to admit, I was shocked yesterday’s system wasn’t close and I took a good jolt to the wagering account on otherwise what was a decent day.

Paul Buck returns after going thru one of the worst losing periods in the NBA of his wagering life and is warming back up and has Lakers/Cavs Free play. The Top Trend doesn’t involve an A-List team, yet who wants to argue with 100 percent. Have a make sense system play in college hoops that is 81.1 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Boston College, revenging a home loss vs opponent (Wake Forest in this case) off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. Since 1997, this system is 30-7 ATS. 81.1 percent and is 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Canisius is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) After a terrible spell, Paul is back, having hit seven of last nine NBA games and he on Cleveland at -4.5 today.

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College Hoops Futures Bets

In last week’s college basketball article, I looked at the past five years of Final Four teams and their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as well as the differential between the two. Using the minimum numbers for each category that occurred over the past five seasons, I made a list of teams who achieved as high or higher number in all three areas. My list of teams numbered sixteen last week.

After using current data, five teams fell out of my qualifying Final Four list and one new one emerged to reduce this week’s slate to 12 teams. Three teams fell out because their defensive efficiency number worsened above the minimum, Missouri, Utah, and Georgetown. Illinois and Kentucky’s offensive efficiency numbers were reduced below our required minimum. Any of these teams can show up on the list again. This week’s list is as follows ranked by the best margin between offensive and defensive efficiency:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Gonzaga
6. West Virginia
7. Arizona State
8. Wake Forest
9. Washington
10. Butler
11. Xavier
12. Villanova

I like to look for inside-outside scoring capabilities on a team. A team cannot rely too much on any one player for their points. Balance is key. Having at least two good shooters from three-point range is a strong benefit when playing against a zone. Sure, players like Davidson’s Stephen Curry are special and many times can carry a team on their shoulders. However, it is very difficult for one player to be able to do that for the five NCAA Tournament wins it takes to become national champion.

The past five years has seen two number-one seeds playing in the championship game three times with the other two years having #2 versus #3 seeds to win it all. Out of the 20 Final Four teams, every squad has been no lower than a #3 seed except for two #4’s, one #5, and a rogue #11, George Mason in 2005-06.

In looking at wagering on a futures bet to win it all, I didn’t want to get worse than 10 to 1 odds so that eliminated a number of my teams. Let’s examine some of the ones I considered.Villanova’s 6-8 forward Sr. Dante Cunningham is having a breakout season leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. However, after improving last season, Jr. Scottie Reynolds has digressed in shooting this year behind the arc while falling to a field goal percentage of 39.0%. Nova is only 2-4 this season against teams in the top 50 RPI. The Wildcats should fall from my list of top Final Four candidates soon.

West Virginia plays tremendous defense but has had difficulties closing games out. While 6-7 Jr. Da’Sean Butler is an all-Big East caliber player, the Mountaineers have two freshmen in their top 5 minute earners with one of those being their point guard, Truck Bryant. They also have the lowest offensive effective field goal percentage of our 12 teams and along with Washington, are the only team to be below 50% in that category.

Xavier played an exceptional non-conference schedule this year helping prepare them for the Atlantic 10 conference race. They have beaten the likes of Missouri, Memphis, and LSU. Their two losses this season were against fellow elite teams on our list, Duke and Butler. Playing their worst game of the year, the Musketeers were down by 31 points at halftime to Duke before losing by 18. The next game was against Butler where Xavier turned the ball over 17 times and put the Bulldogs at the free-throw line for 33 attempts where Butler shot 78.8%. The bright side was they held Butler to just 35.1% shooting.The Musketeers are a well balanced team with three players scoring in double-digits. Any one of five players can go off for 20. A good inside-outside combo in F Derrick Brown and G C.J. Anderson, a gritty competitor. The team shoots the ball well aided by a lot of back screens, play very good defense, and have the best rate in the country at getting to the charity stripe. Their downside is they have the worst turnover rate of our 12 squads, losing the rock on 22.1% of their possessions, 247th in the country. Xavier doesn’t get the national publicity they deserve. They normally play a top 50 non-conference schedule and have had very good post-season success. The Musketeers have gone to three straight NCAA tournaments and seven in the last eight years. They made the Elite Eight last season before losing to UCLA in the West regional final and are one of only nine programs to make multiple appearances in the final eight in the last five years. Xavier is a projected #4 seed by collegerpi.com. At 75 to 1 current odds, that is a long-shot wager I am going to take. I am not saying the Musketeers are going to win it all, but this is a wager that has value to me.

While Butler has beaten Xavier and UAB with their only loss coming at Ohio State by 3 points, I cannot take a flyer on the Bulldogs to capture the college crown as they are ranked 340th out of 344 Division 1 schools in experience. Butler has two freshmen and two sophomores starting.

The University of Washington is playing the best defense they have for the past six seasons, including when they made the Sweet 16 in 2006 led by Brandon Roy where they lost in overtime to UConn. The Huskies don’t make many three’s ranking in the bottom ten nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc. Washington didn’t play a very tough non-con slate losing to Kansas and Florida in a November tournament in Kansas City. The only other Top 50 school they played was a win at home over Oklahoma State. U-Dub is the second worst shooting team and they have the worst defensive effective field goal percentage out of our elite dozen. This past weekend on the road they beat another of our group, Arizona State, after they had dropped a game to Arizona two nights earlier. The Huskies are led by Frosh sparkplug PG Isaiah Thomas and the physical 6-7 Sr Jon Brockman. Even though the Pac-10 is down this year and I don’t like the UW coach very much plus I have my doubts on the Huskies’ true defensive capabilities, at odds of 100 to 1 to becoming the champions, I am going to skip taking the wife out to dinner one night this week and go drop a Benjamin on a Washington futures bet.

After all, who thought the Arizona Cardinals would be within three minutes of winning the Super Bowl?I listed the odds for the teams on my list of winning the championship courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Wake Forest was 14 to 1. At that price I put money on Wake to end up #1. Wake plays at a frenetic pace, seventh fastest in D-1. The Deamon Deacons play superb defense, #5 in defensive efficiency. Even though they have exceptional size, they cover the perimeter like a blanket ranking third in D-1 in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They have beaten two teams on my current list, North Carolina and Duke, and two others that are close to being on the list, BYU and Clemson. They are also exceptional in a stat I like to look at, defensive assist-to-field goal ratio. Wake gets to march to the line frequently ranking 20th in their percentage free throw attempts to field goal attempts, 45.4. Collegerpi.com has Wake as one of their current #1 seeds.

I mentioned that Villanova is a team that will probably slide off my list of potential FF teams, and obviously there are some who could possibly move on to the list. Purdue is projected as a #4 seed and just needs to get and stay as healthy as possible while adding one more point to their OE. Rick Pitino’s Louisville is doing their normal second half of the season surge and only need to improve their OE two points to qualify for our list. While Oklahoma is listed as one of the four #1 seeds by collegerpi.com, they have to improve their defensive efficiency by more than 2 points to make my potential Final Four list.

Sure, this is just the first week of February. It is never too early to look at futures bets. It is similar to playing the lottery, but the people who had Celtics futures tickets last year aren’t complaining.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority drops by to share his wisdom.

Duke visits Wake Forest in ACC Affair

All season long the Big East has been the big bully of the Top 25, having as many as nine teams earlier this season. Because they have taken turns beating each other up, the number has dwindled. A few weeks ago coach Mike Krzyzewski stood up and complained (whined) that the ACC was being overlooked and it was his conference that was the best in the land. Having had three No.1’s compared to the Big East’s one, Coach K certainly has a point at least about the strength at the top of either conference and tonight his club will have chance to prove they are the best team in the country against No.6 Wake Forest.

Duke ascended to the top spot in the country, after Wake Forest (16-1, 8-5 ATS) suffered it first loss of the season, losing to Virginia Tech at home 78-71 as 13-point favorites. It the first time this season, Wake Forest allowed an opponent to shoot 50.0 percent, and also had one of its worst offensive performances while shooting only 43.1 percent.

“We’re going to find out about our guys a little bit,” Demon Deacons coach Dino Gaudio said. “There’s tough kids in that locker room. There’s no doubt in my mind that they’ll bow their necks … and go back to work.” Wake Forest is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

There are tough kids over in the Duke (18-1, 10-7-1 ATS) locker room also, since not bringing best game in only loss to Michigan. The Blue Devils have reeled off 10 straight wins (5-3-1 ATS), winning by an average of 22.8 points per game. They mauled Maryland 85-44, administrating worse ever defeat to the Terps in series history. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. With Duke No.1, they became part of history, being the third team from one state to be ranked number one in the same season.

“It’s a big deal for us because it means we’re playing really well,” coach Krzyzewski said. “We talked about it last week that, just don’t worry about anything, let’s just play. It’s the same thing we’re going to tell them going into this next week. … It’s an honor and it says you’re playing real well. You don’t get anything from it except a really big headline when you lose.”

Wake Forest will look to use its length and considerable athleticism to slow down Duke. The frontline of James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu and Chas McFarland presents difficulties for any team. As the Hokies proved, what you have to do is get them in space and attack the rim, as recovery team defense looked to be an issue, which was masked in a couple previous wins. The offense is multidimensional, however is dependent on guard Jeff Teague getting things started. The sophomore has scored 20 or more points nine times, including five in a row. All the big people are excellent passes and when they are clicking, the Demon Deacons are a load. Wake is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

Part of what makes Duke so tough is they have so many answers. Most nights Kyle Singler and Gerald Henderson can carry the scoring burden. Other times Jon Scheyer and point guard Nolan Smith have come up big and the bench has added more of late. Though Coach K has had tremendous success going with smaller lineup this month, this is exactly the type of game center Brian Zoubek has to be a factor. After a fast start, Zoubek has slowed down in effectiveness. With the height Wake Forest has, he must be a factor. The Dukies are 9-2 ATS after allowing less than 50 points.

Bookmaker.com has the Blue Devils as one-point favorites with a total of 149. Wake Forest is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game and is 6-1 OVER off a loss. Duke is 12-6 UNDER in all games, including 10-3 UNDER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

Wake Forest has won four of its last five home games (3-2 ATS) against the Blue Devils, but the loss came when the Blue Devils were No. 1, an 82-64 defeat on Jan. 8, 2006. This ACC affair starts at 7 Eastern, with the home team 13-3 ATS in last 16 meetings.

Battle of Unbeatens in ACC Action

It’s hard to remember such an important contest in the ACC, with neither Duke nor North Carolina involved. This is unquestionably the biggest game of the weekend and your casual fan might not even know the significance, matching two unbeaten teams this far into the season. It’s another stern test for Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS), traveling south to Clemson. Though, ranked number two in the polls, the Demon Deacons could put the college basketball world on notice that this team is for real.

Wake Forest a youthful bunch, nonetheless are heavy on talent with the likes of sophomore Jeff Teague, L.D. Willliams and Al-Farouq Aminu. Earlier this month they ended BYU’s 53-game home winning streak and left an impression on their competitors. "Wake Forest's speed and quickness is off the charts," BYU guard Jimmer Fredette said.

They followed that up with a convincing 94-87 win over North Carolina. In that game the overpowered the Tar Heels in the paint, outscoring them 44-30. The offense can come from many areas and they continue to be one of the most accurate shooting teams in the country at over 51 percent.

Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS) starting fast isn’t news; it’s what they do from here on that matters. Clemson is 16-0 for the second time in three seasons and a win away from tying its best-ever start set in 2006-07. That season they fell part, closing 8-11. Last year was marginally better, opening 12-1 and finishing 24-10, making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade.
“We’re just playing ball. We’re just playing like we’re having fun,” said senior K.C. Rivers. “We’re enjoying what we do like before we were ranked, so we’re going to continue to do that.”

As compared to previous Tigers' teams, this group might be able to handle prosperity, with senior leaders Rivers and center Raymond Sykes. If guard play is the most important aspect of college basketball, the edge has to go Demontez Stitt and Terrence Oglesby of Clemson. Each brings a unique talent and they work together in harmony for a team that is 35-16 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game.

Bookmaker.com has established Clemson as 2.5-point home favorites.

This will be Clemson’s first game against a ranked opponent and the Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are also 1-34 against Top 5 foes over the last 12 seasons, including 17 straight losses.

Wake Forest has enjoyed success at Clemson with 8-2 ATS mark and six outright triumphs.

This game will be televised regionally on ABC starting at 3:30 Eastern.

Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5

College Football Game Writeups

The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.