2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Matchup

The Dallas Cowboys have exorcised one devilish dilemma, winning in December and will look to make it two in a row, trying to find a way to emerge victorious in the postseason. To do so, Dallas will have to trip up Philadelphia for a third consecutive time this season.

The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005 from the Eagles, and Tony Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.

Philadelphia was thought to be a real threat in the NFC riding a six game winning streak. But as last week pointed out, if the Eagles offense doesn’t keep changing numbers on the scoreboard, they are in trouble. Philly’s defense has become a conundrum, yielding 20 or more points in seven of last nine games, after surrendering that many points just once in their first seven outings.

Andy Reid’s offense has scored only 16 points in two games against Dallas this season, which suggests the Cowboys D is way ahead of Donovan McNabb and the rest of the offense. Philadelphia played tight last week with multiple dropped passes and once again they were too quick to drop the running game (10 carries) after averaging over 28 rush attempts during winning streak. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a road loss against opponent.

History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times (6-1 ATS) and won each of its seven opening games.

The last time Dallas won a playoff game, “Independence Day” was the top movie grossing movie back in 1996. The Cowboys defense finished second in the league in points allowed at 15.6 and has better than that in the last nine weeks giving up 13.2. Dallas took full advantage of Nick Cole as he moved from guard to center for injured Jamaal Jackson. Cole will need help in stopping NT Jay Ratliff, which frees up Cowboys inside linebackers in A-gaps for run blitzes.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas one-point heavier favorite than a week ago at four, with total at 45. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS off a win and Romo will look to exploit Eagles linebackers who have trouble keeping track of tight ends. The Boys are 6-1 UNDER as chalk.

Philadelphia is undersized defensively and must find a way to shed blocks quicker. The offense has to find rhythm expediently, which blends the run with the pass. If these two factors are found, Eagles can pull surprise and improve on 7-0 ATS record as road dogs of 3.5 to 10-points.

Philly is 10-4 ATS in Dallas and they are 7-2-1 UNDER in last 10 playoff games.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

Week 16 NFL Previews

On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver’s in a tough spot at Philly and can’t afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.

Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

For the Bengals, it’s time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second’s loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry’s funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis’ team won’t get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.

Keys to the Game-

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don’t give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel’s completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn’t lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.

With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -13.5, 39.5

Carolina at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Fox’s backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.

Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he’s fearless in trying to thread the needle; he’ll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.

3DW Line – Giants by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -8, 42.5

Jacksonville at New England 1:00E CBS

New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.

Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.

Keys to the Game –

Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43

Denver at Philadelphia 4:15E CBS

After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.

Keys to the Game-

Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.

The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Week 15 in the NFL

It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX

In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.

The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41

Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS

Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.

Keys to the Game-

Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.

Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43

Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX

Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.

Keys to the Game-

San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.

Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39

Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS

Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.

Keys to the Game –

It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.

Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.

3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX

Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.

Keys to the Game-

Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.

Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?

3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.

Wagering Info for Week 13 of the NFL

December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it’s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it’s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX

The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don’t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.

Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -5, 43.5

Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak’s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.

Keys to the Game-

For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).

Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you’ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub’s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston’s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.

3DW Line – Houston by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -2.5, 47

Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts’ win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher’s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ’09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell’s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Keys to the Game-

Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league’s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn’t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.

The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to “spy” Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 46

New England at Miami 1:00E CBS

Miami’s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England’s quest to obtain the AFC’s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano’s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.

Keys to the Game –

It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.

Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won’t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the “clutch” context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.

3DWLine – New England by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -4, 46

Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin’s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ’09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven’t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.

Keys to the Game-

It’s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they’ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.

The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don’t blame it trailing in losses, as they’ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.

3DW Line – Dallas by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -1.5, 45.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.