Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

“Who Dat?” NFL Sports Bettors Know

The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.

The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.

In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.

The term “Big Easy” would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.

This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.

Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportsbook.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 12.

The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 56 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.

The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.

The Saints cover if they play their game and don’t become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.

Monday Night System – Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Week 7 NFL Game Matchups

Their might only be 13 games on the schedule for this week, however, Sunday afternoon five exceptional matchups really standout. This week AFC-NFC conflicts dominate the schedule and four in particular are worth noting. The NFC leads 13-10 SU and Minnesota will put unbeaten record on the line at Pittsburgh. Two upstarts, San Francisco and Houston will try to keep pushing playoff aspirations. Chicago and Cincinnati meet in the Queen City and one team will have consecutive losses at the end of the day. New Orleans is in potential flat spot on the road against rested home underdog Miami and Dallas also returns from a bye week and to face a dangerous Atlanta squad.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 1:00E FOX

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) continues its most difficult stretch of the 2009 season with a trip to what could be the NFL’s toughest environment, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The defending champion Steelers (1-5 ATS) are starting to find their groove, having won three straight games to move to 4-2, with 27-14 win over Cleveland. They’ll head into their bye week next, important since underdogs and road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven tries vs. NFC foes and just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS hosting the Vikings. Still, with a 28-11 ATS record vs. teams with winning percentage of 75 or higher, Pittsburgh has to like its chances. Minnesota will be out for more late game magic vs. the Steelers and is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Keys to the Game-

At 40-years old, Brett Favre has the third highest quarterback rating at this juncture of the season, as the offensive line has done superior work in keeping his jersey clean. This allows Favre to step into his throws and getting attacking defenses. Last week was perfect example as they built 14-0 lead on Baltimore before they knew what hit them. Minnesota has performed poorly in two of last three games in the fourth quarter, being torched on the ground and thru the air. That won’t work against Ben Roethlisberger and the Vikes are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive regular season games and keeping Adrian Peterson in tow is tantamount. Favre has hit a number of plays to WR Sidney Rice the last few weeks, those have to be contained. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards and must keep Jered Allen away from Big Ben and keep the pressure on 24th ranked pass defense.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -6, 46.5

San Francisco at Houston 1:00E FOX

After being off last week, San Francisco coach Mike Singletary faces a challenge of getting his 49ers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) teams to play well, as they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-bye week games prior to his arrival. Another obstacle figures to be the fact that this will be the 49ers first ever trip to Reliant Stadium. They are still stinging from the 45-10 loss to Atlanta, their first ATS setback of 2009. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road under Singletary. Houston (3-3 SU&ATS) has been tough to read this season, alternating wins and losses. This week would be a loss according to that pattern. The Texans boast a 16-11 ATS home record under Gary Kubiak, but just 3-3 ATS hosting NFC foes. In addition to San Francisco’s post-bye team struggles, the OVER has converted in those last 10 games.

Keys to the Game-

With a week off, it’s time for the Niners to be more creative offensively. Lacking a deep threat in the passing game, teams have increasingly crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Michael Crabtree might not all the offense; however he knows how to go deep and fight for the pigskin. San Francisco has the worst third down conversion rate in the league, which means more three and four yard gains on first down are imperative. The 49ers defense found out what a hot quarterback can do against Atlanta and Matt Schaub shifts the ball around to lots of receivers. They have to tighten coverage or they will fall to 5-13 ATS on the road against foe off a SU underdog triumph.

The Houston running game has been ineffectual (30th), nevertheless getting the ball to RB Steve Slaton on screens and wheel-routes in the correct method to exploit slower linebackers. The offensive line will have to allow Schaub time to throw and he has been on target with clean throwing lanes. The defensive line should use this opportunity to get sack-groove back as QB Shaun Hill lacks pocket presence and has been tackled for loss repeatedly. The Texans have covered nine of last 13 tilts.

3DW Line – Houston by 2
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -3, 44

Chicago at Cincinnati 4:15E FOX

Chicago begins a two-game stint against AFC North foes when it travels to Cincinnati. The Bears (3-2, SU&ATS) haven’t been to the Queen City since recording a 24-0 win back in 2001. Overall, the road team has won three of the last four games, both SU & ATS, between these non-conference foes. The Bears are just 10-12 ATS vs. AFC teams under Lovie Smith, including 5-5 ATS on the road. Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS) shares the same won-lost record as Pittsburgh for the AFC Central lead and hopes to head into its bye week on a good note. The Bengals off the home loss to Houston in which they yielded 472 yards, are looking for a sixth straight ATS win vs. the NFC, although they are just 2-4-1 ATS as hosts in that role since 2005. Road teams are 6-2 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001.

Keys to the Game-

Chicago should know what to do with former teammate Cedric Benson, as he is one-cut-and-go runner. The Bears defense tackles bottled up Michael Turner last week (30-yards) and need to shoot the gaps to contain Benson. Cincinnati loves to blitz and might need to even more without DE Antwan Odom gone for the season. Though the Bears receiving core is feeble, so is the Bengals 28th rated pass defense. Give Jay Cutler time and Chicago has the upset and Bears move to 10-4 ATS following a spread loss.

When Cincinnati almost lost to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they were arrogant in kicking the ball to Joshua Cribbs, giving the Browns excellent field position time and again. Coach Marvin Lewis has to be smarter against the Bears return personnel or a loss could entail. Be patient with Benson on the ground. He has shown proclivity for breaking big runs, don’t be discouraged by a series of minimal gains. The Bengals have bounced back after sorry defensive performances and are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards. Create exotic blitz packages to annoy Cutler, who have shown he’s not above making poor throwing decisions.

3DWLine – Chicago by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -1, 42.5

New Orleans at Miami 4:15E FOX

After losing its first three games, Miami won its last two before its bye week to climb back into the AFC East race. The next three weeks will determine whether the Dolphins (2-3 ATS) are capable of staying in the hunt. After this game against the undefeated Saints (5-0 SU&ATS), they face trips to New York and New England, both critical divisional contests. Miami comes in on a 4-8 ATS slide as a home underdog. New Orleans is off the statement win over the Giants and also faces a pair of divisional opponents up next, only at home, starting with Atlanta. The Saints are 6-0 ATS the last two years vs. the AFC, and 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East foes dating back to 1992. They are also 8-1 ATS as road chalk under coach Sean Payton. Miami last hosted the Saints in 1998, and is 2-0 SU & ATS in those meetings.

Keys to the Game –

The New England Patriots of a couple of seasons ago might have been a tremendous story ravaging the NFL in the first part of the season; however this New Orleans offense is no less lethal. Coach Payton’s attacking game plans immediately have opponents on tilt, with Drew Brees the executioner. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons in no small part because they win the turnover battle. They are +9 in 2009. New Orleans must tame the “wildcat”. Scoring quickly and building lead places more pressure on slower-paced Miami to score more frequently.

The best way to cool Brees is have him on the sidelines. Miami has the NFL’s best running game and averages over 36 carries a game. Use the same tactics that almost ended Indianapolis unbeaten season. With an extra week to work out deficiencies, the Dolphins have to have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor pestering Brees or he will eat up safeties, the weak link of Fins defense. Miami is 4-14 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog and they better spot TE Jeremy Shockey from the Saints first offensive snap or another loss is forthcoming.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6.5, 48

Atlanta at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas may have headed into its bye week with the confidence of a 3-2 team, but the truth is the Cowboys (2-3 ATS) are closer to being 1-4 than they are to being elite outfit. A late interception return versus Carolina and OT win at Kansas City has made the difference. Offensively they have been stellar, gaining an incredible 7.0 yards per play, best in the NFL. However, defensively, they are yielding 5.8 yards per play, and ranked 22nd in total defense. They start a two-game homestand, and they’ll take on another pretty good team offensively, Atlanta, who comes in at 4-1 after beating Chicago. The Falcons (4-1 ATS) begin a stretch of four road games in their next five. They are on a run of 21-9 ATS in October road games. Speaking of visitors, road teams are 6-0 SU & ATS in Dallas’ last six post-bye week contests.

Keys to the Game-

Frequently, teams off a bye are somewhat lethargic playing at home and off a victory. This sets up perfect opportunity to spring no-huddle offense on Dallas, say the second series of the game. Matt Ryan showed he can handle this attack comfortably and the Cowboys are 26th against the pass. Atlanta has improved the last two weeks stopping the run and applying quarterback pressure, but has blown contain and let opposing QB’s scramble for first downs. Keep Romo in the pocket. Once again the secondary is a concern for Falcons, which means pass rush has to work. The Birds are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since last year.

The offensive line has to take it Atlanta, building on No.3 rush attack. This keeps Romo from making boneheaded plays. Great efficiency is also needed in the red zone as seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions is not good enough. Ryan, the former Boston College quarterback, has not been sacked since the third quarter of the first game against Miami. After lumbering start, Cowboys have 10 sacks in last three contests. Get to Ryan and chances of 6-0 ATS record off a bye improve substantially.

3DWLine – Atlanta by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -4.5, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Unique OutPlay Factor Ratings

It's about this time each football season that I love to dig into the StatFox database for both college & pro football and tabulate the Outplay Factor Ratings for each team. By now, all the clubs have at least four games in the books, meaning we have a decent idea as to how they stack up for 2009. However, as is always the case, there are teams that are overrated and teams that are underrated. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can help to pinpoint such cases, as they ignore wins & losses, and rather quantify how well a team is either outplaying or being outplayed by their opponents. The big thing that the OF does for us is take into account schedule strength, as often teams are given too much credit for whipping up on bad opponents while not enough for playing a very competitive game but coming up short to an elite club.

With that in mind, here are the early season StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for all the clubs as they headed into last weekend's games. I have sorted the teams by division or conference so you can easily compare the numbers, as the teams match up head-to-head most often. The (Off) column is the team's Offensive Outplay Factor Rating, with the higher numbers better. The (Def) column is Defensive Outplay Factor Rating, and there the lower the better. The (COF) is the Composite Outplay Factor Rating, and you can use each team's rating to generate a theoretical pointspread by comparing it to another club and then assigning home field advantage. The (RK) column indicates where that team ranks in the NFL or nationally in college. These numbers take into account ONLY 2009 game results, rather than a specific number of recent games.

Some of the things you'll want to keep an eye on as you analyze these numbers are first, any teams that may rank at or near the top of their respective division/conference in Outplay Factor Rating but not in the actual won-lost standings. These are the types of teams that may be getting undervalued by oddsmakers. Vice-versa for those teams at or near the bottom in OF, but not so in the standings. These are clubs that may be overachieving or getting the benefit of good fortune and hence ready to take a dive. The other factor that is important to consider is to find teams that are generating good offensive & defensive balance. If a team is drastically outplaying its opponents on one side of the ball and not the other, it may be a sign of a potential weak spot for that club. In other words, if a team such as San Diego has a very high offensive OF rating (positive) but also a very high positive on its defensive rating, that means it's offense is carrying the load entirely. A couple of bad or even average games by that unit and that team might be in some trouble. Same goes for a team with two very low negative numbers. That is a team that is outperforming its opponents defensively, but not getting the same performance out of its offense.

You can find out more about the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating by search the term on your favorite search engine or in the Fox Den Forum on StatFox.com.

NFL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

AFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ENGLAND: +7.8 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.2) #5 of 32

NY JETS: +6.8 (Off: +-3.1, Def: +-9.9) #8 of 32

MIAMI: +4.2 (Off: +0.6, Def: +-3.6) #14 of 32

BUFFALO: +-8.8 (Off: +-5.9, Def: +2.9) #28 of 32

The AFC East has the highest combined OF of any division in the NFL thus far. Does that make it the toughest? Possibly. Even Miami had a positive rating after its first four games despite going just 1-3, meaning the Dolphins could be an underrated club in coming weeks. Both New York and New England have favorable schedules upcoming in terms of OF's, so expect these teams to continue to stay atop the division.

AFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CINCINNATI: +4.6 (Off: +1.2, Def: +-3.4) #12 of 32

BALTIMORE: +4.3 (Off: +4.9, Def: +0.6) #13 of 32

PITTSBURGH: +0.2 (Off: +-2, Def: +-2.2) #19 of 32

CLEVELAND: +-7.8 (Off: +-6.4, Def: +1.4) #26 of 32

The AFC North OF standings are the same as the won-lost standings, perhaps indicating that Cincinnati being atop the division is not a fluke. However, the Bengals rating of +4.6 is just 12th in the league, meaning this division as a whole in underachieving. Pittsburgh's rating is particularly alarming, since +0.2 is barely outplaying opponents, and the Steelers' final OF of '08 was +9.2. Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as some other bottom feeder teams.

AFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

INDIANAPOLIS: +11 (Off: +5.1, Def: +-5.9) #2 of 32

JACKSONVILLE: +-4.6 (Off: +-1.5, Def: +3.1) #22 of 32

HOUSTON: +-7 (Off: +-0.1, Def: +6.9) #25 of 32

TENNESSEE: +-8.3 (Off: +-2.7, Def: +5.6) #27 of 32

The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for the AFC South are a one-horse race. Oh wait, so are the actual won-lost standings. Indy has been as good as it has appeared, outplaying teams by 11.0 PPG, which is 1.8 PPG better than the #1 ranked team of '08. The other three clubs are well below the zero mark, meaning that the Colts should be favored by at least 15-points in divisional play before applying any home field points.

AFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

DENVER: +7.2 (Off: +-1.4, Def: +-8.6) #6 of 32

SAN DIEGO: +-1.3 (Off: +4.1, Def: +5.4) #20 of 32

KANSAS CITY: +-6.2 (Off: +-3.3, Def: +2.9) #24 of 32

OAKLAND: +-13.2 (Off: +-10.2, Def: +3) #31 of 32

Like the AFC South, the West also has one team in positive territory in StatFox OF headed into Week 6. Denver has won close games, and the Broncos rating of +7.2 is indicative of that. They may be 5-0, but at +7.2, should not be considered yet as a large favorite. However, according to OF ratings, there's no reason San Diego should be favored on Monday. The Chiefs are better than Oakland, despite the Raiders head-to-head win.

NFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NY GIANTS: +8.3 (Off: +6.7, Def: +-1.6) #4 of 32

PHILADELPHIA: +5.9 (Off: +7.2, Def: +1.3) #9 of 32

DALLAS: +2.8 (Off: +3.5, Def: +0.7) #16 of 32

WASHINGTON: +-10.7 (Off: +-11.4, Def: +-0.7) #30 of 32

The NFC East is stacking up just as envisioned, with Washington bringing up the rear. However, only numbers such as the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can quantify just how bad the Redskins have been in their 2-3 start. At -10.7, they are 30th out of 120 teams, and with the meat of their schedule upcoming, things could get ugly for that franchise. The Giants have been good, but not at the level of New Orleans & Indy. Dallas may be the most overrated team in the NFL.

NFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CHICAGO: +6.9 (Off: +3.3, Def: +-3.6) #7 of 32

MINNESOTA: +4.9 (Off: +5.5, Def: +0.6) #11 of 32

GREEN BAY: +2.7 (Off: +4.8, Def: +2.1) #17 of 32

DETROIT: +-3.7 (Off: +2.6, Def: +6.3) #21 of 32

According to the StatFox OF Ratings, the NFC North is only slightly worse than the East. In fact the degree at which Detroit betters Washington explains how the Lions won their only game. In fact, Detroit should not be grouped with the truly poor teams at this point and is capable of winning games. Minnesota is easily the worst 5-0 team in football and will be tested the next three weeks. Chicago has been solid on both sides of the ball, while Green Bay needs to improve defensively.

NFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ORLEANS: +18.3 (Off: +13.2, Def: +-5.1) #1 of 32

ATLANTA: +8.3 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.7) #3 of 32

CAROLINA: +-6 (Off: +-4.1, Def: +1.9) #23 of 32

TAMPA BAY: +-10.1 (Off: +-5.4, Def: +4.7) #29 of 32

The NFC South OF ratings are as imblanced as the won-lost standings, and New Orleans is setting the pace for the entire league. The Saints will be tested this week at home vs. the Giants though. Atlanta's rout of San Francisco helped boost its rating about four points, and the Falcons are now ranked as the 3rd best team in the entire NFL. Tampa and Carolina go head-to-head Sunday, and assuming the Bucs have very little home field edge, oddsmakers have the spread pegged right, Carolina -4.

NFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

SEATTLE: +5.5 (Off: +1.4, Def: +-4.1) #10 of 32

SAN FRANCISCO: +4.1 (Off: +2.1, Def: +-2) #15 of 32

ARIZONA: +1.2 (Off: +0.4, Def: +-0.8) #18 of 32

ST LOUIS: +-17.7 (Off: +-11.9, Def: +5.8) #32 of 32

The NFC West is balanced after five weeks, just as the won-lost standings indicate. Right now, it is Seattle pacing the OF ratings, with a +5.5, putting it ahead of teams like Dallas & Minnesota. The Seahawks two shutouts help lead to a -4.1 defensive OF, 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco & Arizona are ranked lower overall than Seattle but have shown balance on both sides of the ball. St. Louis is plain awful, and according to the OF's, should be at least a 15-point dog in all divisional games.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

To read all about the college teams, click here.

Article by Steve Makinen of Statfox and The Platinum Sheet.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

We’ve all heard veteran NFL players talk about the league as “just a business”. If you think of the National Football like say a McDonald’s, you have 32 franchisees within its framework. While Mickey D’s would never allow certain bone-headed people to be in charge of their operations, on Sunday, we saw the differences in a well-run franchise and one’s that should be going out of business or at least hanging signs “Under new ownership”.

The slogan “Pride and Poise” associated with the Oakland franchise is hilarious today and should be replaced with “Polluted and Pitiful”. On Sunday, the Raiders were down 28-0 before registering a first down. JaMarcus Russell is setting new standards for quarterback play in the NFL; even Ryan Leaf will soon be forgotten.

When Al Davis moves on to the big black and silver cloud in the sky, he will have ruined a legacy of innovation and excellence for decades, by not knowing when to step away and being a meddler. Oakland’s ability to overpay for unworthy talent and ridiculous draft choices is now looked upon as “well its Oakland”. As written by Len Pasquarelli of ESPN, of the Raiders 56 viable possessions (not including drives with under two minutes in the half) they have 34 series that lasted three plays or less and 40 that were for five snaps or fewer.

Contrast that with the Giants, a well run franchise, with coach Tom Coughlin as head coach. Coughlin had the good sense to reinvent a part of himself and an underachieving team responded by winning a Super Bowl and has been an annual contender for years. New York was easily more than a two touchdown favorite and the word out of Giants camp was Coughlin was preaching all week not to take the Raiders lightly, stay focused and play our game. New York’s diligence in listening was rewarded with several starters not playing more than two-thirds of the game and virtually all the reserves saw considerable action in 44-7 pasting.

The same was true in St. Louis, as certain folks believed Minnesota might be flat on short week and playing road game against winless Rams. The Vikings went off as 10.5-point favorites and whether they were ready to play or not, it was impossible to tell because of the Rams ineptness. St. Louis is another franchise that has been run aground and at least has made an attempt to change with new people in all keys management positions. But with a shocking lack of talent, this isn’t one of those Miami Dolphins turnarounds, this will take time.

Whatever your opinion of Brett Favre, give the Vikings front office their due, they are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) for the first time in six years and pegged the person they believed could make them a true Super Bowl contender.

Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota and the Giants all know what lies ahead for 2009 and their perspectives are very different.

You had to be really impressed with Atlanta coach Mike Smith and how his staff wisely used the bye week. The Falcons used new toy TE Tony Gonzalez like a child, throwing to him over and over again in the first few games, making their home-run hitter and budding star Roddy White an afterthought. Smith had QB Matt Ryan intent on throwing the ball on the perimeter; against what were thought to be very good San Francisco corners. Ryan was on target and White caught eight passes that he turned into 210 yards in Falcons flushing of the Niners 45-10 as one-point underdogs. Interestingly, the money came all Sunday morning on Atlanta, starting the day as 2.5-point underdogs. Next Sunday’s game with Chicago is tantalizing.

While Cincinnati is well-known for its frugal methods (cheap in the real world) they deserve accolades for staying with coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have had a series of injury-plagued seasons and lacked the depth to replace with quality players. Carson Palmer, either being injured or playing hurt, has cost them in two of the last three seasons. Cincinnati has played five games with each contest being decided by a touchdown or less, but at least they are finding ways to win with rededicated Cedric Benson on offense and more aggressive defense. The Cats host Houston and they are 5-13-2 ATS as non-division home favorites.

In the first half, the Dallas Cowboys players where shaking their heads after every bad play, a real sign of each player on his own page. Yes, they sucked it up and came back and defeated Kansas City in non-cover 26-20, but when you consider Oakland defeated the Chiefs in four quarters, that’s a real cause for concern. We’ll see how much it means after their bye week.

I’m convinced the Houston Texans will never be more than a 9-7 team and hardly ever worse than 7-9 with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Houston’s game against Arizona sums up Shaub in a nutshell. The Texans never scored in the first half, trailing 21-0. Shaub finally got in sync with his receivers and Houston scored 21 unanswered points to tie the score at 21. With a chance to drive his team to take the lead, Shaub stared down his receiver like he was looking at Megan Fox, and frequently burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted the pass for a Pick Six. Shaub did drive his team back down the field for tying score, but threw a jittery pass in the end zone and missed open receiver on great play call. The Texans are in the midst of playing four of five on the road and chances are they are just as likely to be a good bet as bad. Next up is Cincinnati and Houston is 44-44 ATS since joining the league against the AFC.

Surprised the Raiders aren’t trying to make deal for Derrick Anderson after he was 2 for 17 and Cleveland still won and covered. To Anderson’s credit he actually completed one more pass making his completion percentage 15 percent, it just happen to be to Buffalo player. Cleveland ended 10-game losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) at Buffalo and heads to Pittsburgh where they are 1-9 (3-7 ATS) since becoming the Browns again in 1999.

Coach Dick Jauron and his offensive staff are clueless. They acquire Terrell Owens and have no idea how to get him the ball. The Bills are like somebody who always fries steaks in a pan, because the meat is usually cheap. Somebody buys them a sharp new grill and some beautifully tender porterhouse steaks to grill up. Instead, what do these people do with delicious looking meat, what they always, fry it in the pan. Unless Buffalo miraculously wins its next three games before the bye, I wouldn’t stray too far from the phone if I was Jauron, who is 4-13 and 6-11 ATS since opening 4-0 in 2008.

In Search of Sunday Success

A very sharp Saturday for 3Daily Winners as we were 3-1, if you include earlier Washington State system play this week. Let’s see if we can keep the winning go with a Best System play that is 26-5 since 1983! The Top Trend seems to be contrarian, but not 10-1 record. Kendall has been lighting them up in the NFL and offers his Best Bet. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I got my backside handed to yesterday and accomplished an unusual feat. How often do sorry teams like Ball State, Iowa State and Kentucky all cover on the same day? I mean except for yesterday. Heavy sigh

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY Against any team with average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Over the last 26 years this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent. The Atlanta Falcons fit this losing profile.

Free Football Trend -2) The Arizona Cardinals are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall is 9-3 the last three weeks in the NFL and foresees a Carolina cover coming today.

Now tap today we have our Guaranteed NFC Game of the Day backed with perfect angle.

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Dressed for Sunday Success

We came up 1.5-points short of going 4-0 in CFB this week and instead settled for 3-1. I searched everywhere but couldn’t find a great system, but found a damn good one at 78.4 percent. The Top Trend is in division dandy and Ken off a brilliant Saturday looks to continue winning ways with his Top Play as Free Pick. Good luck

What I thought yesterday – What the hell happened to Colt McCoy, the Notre Dame defense, the USC offense, the Georgia defense, BYU and when does a team bring back ONE starter on defense start 3-0 (Cincinnati)? Special thanks to the Mangino’s for the late cover over Duke.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This non-qualifying system is 40-11, ATS over the last 26 years at 78.4 percent and shows Kansas City and Jacksonville as the Play Against teams.

Free Football Trend -2) The Atlanta Falcons are 1-12 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LLC was perfect 6-0 yesterday and is playing Da Raaiders today with the +3.

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The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 14-2 ATS last week in NFL.

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NFL Opening Weekend

Thursday was a delicious bacon-wrapped filet appetizer, with the first main course coming Sunday in the NFL. Miami at Atlanta is among the early games that please, as should Jacksonville at Indianapolis, with their new head coach. NFL bettors made Philadelphia into a road favorite at Carolina after starting as underdog. The late afternoon has the NFC Super Bowl representative Arizona hosting division opponent and a team that won the Super Bowl the year prior, New York, is also embroiled in early division dogfight. Enjoy my sports wagering friend.

Miami at Atlanta 1:00E CBS

Miami and Atlanta will try to build on playoff seasons when they open the 2009 campaign in one the two inter-conference games scheduled for Week 1. Miami (11-6, 8-9 ATS) was the league’s biggest surprise in 2008, improving by 10-wins from ‘07. Oddsmakers don’t expect it to continue though, dropping the Dolphins’ regular season wins prop bet to 7.5 this fall. Perhaps that has something to due with the fact that the Fish had the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Head coach Tony Sparano’s team was 3-1 SU, but 0-4 ATS vs. the NFC last year.

Keys to the Game-

Miami’s Ronnie Brown has looked sharp in the preseason and if the Dolphins linemen can make a few creases, Brown could be productive. On defense, Fins coaches have kept LB Joey Porter on the weakside and moved Jason Taylor over to strong side of D-Line. They believe this gives them better combination for pass rush. Cornerback Sean Smith will likely have to go it alone with Michael Jenkins, which could determine Miami’s 1-7-2 ATS record in recent September’s.

Atlanta better run Michael Turner early in the season, since those 376 carries from a year ago are bound to affect him. Last year, Matt Ryan threw less than 10 percent of all pass attempts to tight ends, with Tony Gonzalez that will change as of the first quarter. Look for coach Mike Smith to use zone combinations to hide corners, the weakest part of the Falcons defense. The Birds are 9-2 ATS in season openers.

3DW Power Rating – Atlanta by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -4, 44

Philadelphia at Carolina 1:00E FOX

Top contenders in the NFC go head-to-head Sunday when Philadelphia visits Carolina. The Panthers opened as one-point favorites, but have been flipped to 2.5-point underdogs at most wagering outlets. Carolina (12-5, 8-7 ATS) is hoping to get off to a fast start and erase the memory of January’s embarrassing playoff loss. They rolled to a 12-4 regular season mark but were beaten 33-13 as a 10-point favorite vs. Arizona in the divisional round.

Philadelphia (11-7-1, 12-7 ATS) also lost to the Cardinals a week later in the NFC title game, but has made several well received changes since in the offseason. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, and 33-15 ATS in that role under head coach Andy Reid. They have won two straight series, but haven’t visited Carolina since ’03. The Panthers were 5-3 ATS at home in ’08, their first winning mark since ‘02.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia’s defense for the first time in years won’t look over and see DC Jim Johnson, who lost battle to cancer. They will have to be strong in the A and B gaps to prevent Carolina running backs from dominating game. The Eagles blitzes could affect Delhomme, who doesn’t handle pressure well on consistent basis, however they must get to him, since DB’s are often on an island. Philly runners will have to soften up vulnerable Panthers run defense. If they don’t, they fall 1-8-1 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or less.

The best way to defeat the Eagles pressure is run the ball right at them. Carolina is certainly capable of this and DeAngelo Williams is great bouncing runs to the outside. Coach John Fox has a defensive quandary; his club must be stout up the gut, yet maintain balance and not let talented Eagles perimeter players expose them. This figures to be close NFC battle, which means Carolina must maintain focus and not turn the ball over. Its bad enough they are 0-6 ATS before playing rival Atlanta.

3DW Power Rating – Carolina by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -2.5, 43.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

There are seven divisional games scheduled for opening week in the NFL, perhaps none bigger than that in the AFC South between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The AFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and both the Colts and Jaguars boast playoff expectations.

This has been a back-and-forth series as well, with road teams owning a 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in the last 10 meetings. The last three games have been decided by seven or less points. Ironically, the pointspread for Sunday opened at Colts -7. The Colts were just 3-8 ATS last year as favorites despite winning 12 games. Indy will begin a new era under Jim Caldwell, the former quarterback coach. The Jaguars are hoping to forget ‘08 after losing six of the last seven games, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

Indianapolis begins the post Tony Dungy-era looking for 10th win in last 11 openers (7-2-1 ATS). Though a new coach means some changes, keeping Manning upright is always the first concern. This is critical year for Joseph Addai, who must come thru or rookie Donald Brown will start taking away his carries. Manning has always been at his best with a good running game. The Colts are only 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games and most expose new Jaguars linemen and punish Garrard.

Jacksonville is going to have to run the ball successfully to stay out of third and long and is starting two rookie offensive tackles against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. This sets up play-action passing for Garrard and saves his hide. Indy doesn’t have a lot of size in the middle, thus the Jags could wear down the Colts with Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have also been early money-makers with 8-2 ATS record in Week 1 and they’ll need to change up defenses frequently to cloud Manning’s judgment.

3DW Power Rating – Indianapolis by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -6.5, 44.5

San Francisco at Arizona 4:15E FOX

The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona (12-8, 13-7 ATS) was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.

San Francisco (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS) has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of head coach Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS record in the last eight.

Keys to the Game –

This will be a common theme all year for San Francisco, they can’t allow opponent to get off to fast starts since offense isn’t built to overcome big leads. Frank Gore must be moving the chains and Shaun Hill has to be effective in hitting targets and making good reads. Time of possession means everything to the Niners. Kurt Warner isn’t getting younger and mobility is further decreased with bad hip. Try and cover receivers tight and make him hold the ball to create pressure. San Fran is 4-1 ATS as dog in 3.5-10 point range.

Arizona doesn’t figure to have a number of offensive issues as long as they keep LB Patrick Willis relatively blocked. Willis is among the best inside backers in the NFL, thus one-back sets keep him from being as active in opposing teams backfield. Frank Gore has punished the Cards defense; he must be contained and cut off yards after initial contact. The 49ers receivers are mostly possession types except for TE Vernon Davis, who can be home run hitter. He must he watched closely for club that is 6-2 ATS as home chalk.

3DW Power Rating – Arizona by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Arizona -6, 46

Washington at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

The Giants weren’t at their best when it mattered most last year and failed to defend their Super Bowl championship, but they proved too much for the Redskins to handle in a pair of NFC East showdowns. New York (12-5 SU & ATS) outscored Washington 39-14 on the way to sweeping the season series for the second time in three years.

The rivalry renews in Week 1 at the Meadowlands, where the top-seeded Giants lost only once during the regular season (6-2 ATS) but then suffered a divisional round playoff loss to Philadelphia. The Redskins (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS) watched the playoffs from home following an ugly second half that saw them drop six of eight to finish .500, which placed them last in what many experts believe will again be the best division in football.

Keys to the Game-

Quarterback Jason Campbell answered the challenge in the preseason and now has to establish himself as the leader in Redskins locker room. He’ll have to make intelligent decisions in the face of ferocious Giants pass rush and make plays. Clinton Portis is slowing down, but will have to should the load if Washington is to pull the upset. This is perfect game why Albert Haynesworth was showed with cash, he needs to help contain Giants running game for Skins squad that is15-6-1 ATS as NFC East visitor.

When New York has problems with Washington, it usually revolves around failure of pass defense giving up big plays. Contain the Redskins deep ball and make them go long distances by moving the chains. The Giants linemen have to keep Haynesworth from being disruptive force and maintain manageable third down sequences. A healthy Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora should spell trouble for Jim Zorn’s offense and the blue-clad Giants are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

3DW Power Rating – New York by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New York -6.5, 37

Super Saturday with Big Announcement

Picked off two out of three winners on Friday and start moving towards football. Congrats to Mark on huge winner on the S.F. Giants last night. He wouldn’t tell me how much he won, but a couple of his friends said it was LARGE. Tonight his best play is in the NFL.Have an exceptional Top Trend in the NFL and Best System is on the base paths at 83.7 percent. Good Luck

Wipe that frown off your face – I was slightly disappointed in myself for betting New England -3.5, because half point losses are just plain dumb even in the preseason. I don’t bet much on these games, thus it is good to get the first lesson out of the way early.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting next Saturday and on Sunday once the NFL begins, I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on those days. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. A review of the numbers suggests playing against Oakland, with a sweet system this 103-20, including 13-2 in 2009.

Free Football Trend -2) The Tennessee Titans are 11-1 ATS if opponent is off a win and cover.

Free Football Pick -3) Mark of the LCC flushed with cash, bet Atlanta at -2.5 to cover on televised tilt.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks – Are cleaning up check out our packages.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

Saturday Preseason Football

It is a large slate of action in Week 3 of the NFL preseason and every game has meaning to the players trying to make the team and coaches trying to be ready for the regular season. Here is a look at each game with key wagering information for each contest.

San Diego at Atlanta

This is will be the CBS game starting at 8:00 Eastern, with running back Michael Turner going against his old teammates from San Diego. Atlanta would be 2-0 if the backups had not surrendered lead late at Detroit in 27-26 loss. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks like we will avoid a sophomore slump, playing extremely well in limited action. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with total of 42 and are 21-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

It’s been a different preseason for San Diego, as LaDainian Tomlinson has actually done something besides stand on the sidelines like in years past. L.T. isn’t being overworked mind you with eight carries and a couple of pass catches, however that is way more activity than he’s seen in recent years as he looks to rebound from injury. Even with last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as 1.5-point underdogs, coach Norn Turner teams are 3-6 ATS as dogs or Pick.

Indianapolis at Detroit

Indianapolis may have rotten reputation as preseason team (6-18, 9-14-1 ATS), but Detroit is even less thought of as a team of any kind. In this NFL Network matinee, the Lions have gone from 1.5-point favorites to three-point underdogs. This is the dress rehearsal week for the regular season and the Colts are 6-1 ATS and Detroit is 2-10 SU and ATS in the next to last exhibition game.

New Orleans at Oakland

Another afternoon affair means another flip of the favorites, this time on the Left Coast. The always controversial Oakland Raiders have covered a pair of contests in sporting .500 record, however the wagering public isn’t sold this team that opened as Pick and fell to +2.5-points, is equipped to handle New Orleans who has won both contests by average of 17 points. The Saints are 23-10 ATS in August road games and 16-5 ATS in the visiting uniforms with six or less days rest.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Coach Eric Mangini will take one more look at Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn and decide who will be his starting quarterback in Cleveland, at least for game one. The Browns blew-up Detroit last week 27-10, but are 1-9 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. Tennessee played bored last Friday at Dallas, having played one more preseason contest thanks to Hall of Fame encounter. The Titans are two-point dogs, nonetheless are 11-1 ATS vs. opponent off a win and cover.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Buffalo is 1-2 and 1-1-1 ATS and this week have to solve turnover issues that are plaguing them, with 11 miscues already. Trent Edwards could use Terrell Owens, who is expected to miss another game with sprained toe. The Bills are six-point underdogs with total of 36, yet if they can score 15-21 points, they are 12-2 ATS on the road. Ben Roethlisberger was held out last week, but is presumed ready for action. Pittsburgh is 10-15 ATS in third preseason game and is 1-3 and 0-4 ATS since 2005.

Baltimore at Carolina

Carolina has yet to scratch in the win column in 2009, mostly due to run defense surrendering 140 yards a game. They’ll try and shore this area up this week, but it will be without linebacker Jon Beason, who strained his MCL, and who will be held out at least until regular season starts. Baltimore has been efficient 2-0 (1-1 ATS), looking like playoff contender again. Watch the total here (36) with Panthers on 6-0 OVER run and Ravens 14-4 UNDER off one or more straight Overs.

San Francisco at Dallas

For football fans, this encounter is a quick trip down memory lane of classic matchups these teams played in the 1980’s and 90’s. This won’t be the case today, with Dallas a seven-point favorite and total of 38. The 49ers named Shaun Hill as starting quarterback, but he and former No.1 pick Alex Smith might both be on the sidelines with injury. Say hello to Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis for San Francisco who has two wins without a cover. The Cowboys played with purpose last in routing Tennessee 30-10, however is dastardly 1-9 ATS at home if opponent is off two SU wins.

Seattle at Kansas City

These former AFC division partners will meet again in Kansas City. Matt Hasselbeck looks all the way back from injured back of a year ago. Hasselbeck has the fastball back in repertoire and better accuracy on sideline routes. The Seahawks may be catching 2.5-points, however are 8-0 ATS in last eight August tries and 9-1 ATS since 2007. Kansas City has played like a team installing new offensive and defensive systems and is just the opposite of Seattle, posting 1-9 ATS mark the last three years.

N.Y. Jets vs N.Y. Giants

The Giants are the designated home team, which means they get the bigger locker room in bragging rights matchup. The G-Men have been hit hard on the defensive side of the ball with injuries, yet most Giants fans are more concerned if Eli Manning will mesh with wide receiver group quickly. The New York football Giants are 9-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason. Rookie Mark Sanchez has enjoyed the bright lights of New York thus far, but now productivity will be his savior as Jets QB. Sanchez appeared a trifle overwhelmed by Baltimore’s defense last week and has to remain composed. Gang Green is 13-3-1 ATS in this Big Apple battle, on the receiving end of three points.

Friday NFL Wagering Opportunities

The Week 2 NFL preseason card thickens with a trio of wagering options to start the weekend. The showcase contest is Tennessee at Dallas, which will be on Fox starting at 8 Eastern. Kansas City will make the trip north to Brett Favre country (now west of Wisconsin) to face the Vikings and former division rivals Atlanta and St. Louis will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River. (Picture made you take a closer look, admit it)

Tennessee at Dallas

The world will get its first look at the brand new Cowboys Stadium, with its retractable-roof, built for reported price of $1.15 billion, which is big even by Texas standards. Dallas gave their usual desultory first game effort (2-5 SU and ATS), in being whacked by Oakland 31-10. Quarterback Tony Romo should see increased playing time in preparation for the regular season. Dallas will look to control Tennessee’s running game since they are 0-11 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Tennessee already has wrapped up two wins in August and would gladly take a third if the Cowboys want to go thru the motions again. The storyline for the Titans is this, will Vince Young be able to build on last week’s crisp performance (9-14 for 131 yards, TD)? DiamondSportsbook.com has Dallas as three-point favorites with the total at 37 points. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog, while the Cowboys are 2-9 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Kansas City at Minnesota

The circus has come to Minneapolis, not the Big Top with cotton candy, thrills and chills, no its Brett Favre, this time wearing a Barney-colored number four. Whatever the reasons for Favre’s return, coach Brad Childress has believed since last season the former Packer and Jet quarterback is better than what he’s had on his roster. Sage Rosenfels is now the backup and in all likelihood, Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty are playing for a roster spot.

The Vikings defense bottled up the Indianapolis last week (142 total yards) and is 5-1 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Minnesota is a three-point favorite on the home turf and will sell more tickets for this encounter than anticipated.

With last week’s 16-10 home loss to Houston, Kansas City is now 5-16 and 4-16-1 ATS since 2004 in the preseason. New coach Todd Haley and Chiefs front office won’t say anything publicly, but there has to be a few furrowed brows after Matt Cassel was outplayed by both Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen in Week 1. Kansas City has failed to cover six straight Week 2 assignments and is 3-12 ATS off a home loss.

Atlanta at St. Louis

New Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be on the home team sidelines in St. Louis for the first time Friday. The always intense former defensive coordinator was pleased with the play of the offensive line that helped generate 6.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries in 23-20 win as four-point road underdogs against the New York Jets. Everything isn’t perfect in Rams-land however, as starting quarterback Mark Bulger fractured pinkie on his throwing hand in practice this past Monday, and is presumed out two weeks. That means the reins are turned over to Kyle Boller as first choice, along with Brock Berlin and Keith Null. With top receiver Donny Avery already out bettors have pounced on Atlanta, taking them from one-point underdogs to three point favorites.

The Falcons backups couldn’t hold a 23-10 lead midway thru the third quarter at Detroit and were passed on the last play of the game 27-26. Matt Ryan and the rest of the first team are expected to see extended minutes this week; however the play of the Atlanta reserves is of note if the Birds face injuries during the regular season. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road and are 6-1 against the number playing the second of two consecutive road encounters.