Tuesday's bids earned for Big Dance

A trio of invites will be doled out on Tuesday evening for three more conference championships. All three winners are guaranteed spots, however those on the bubble have a rooting interesting in Butler winning, since a Wright State upset in the Horizon League means one fewer spot for them, with the Bulldogs already assured of being invited to the party. Here are the three wagering previews.

Horizon League Championship 9:00E ESPN

Regular season champion Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS) was dumped in last year Horizon championship game by Cleveland State and went on to lose to LSU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are focused on not seeing history repeat itself.

Butler has yet to lose in league play with 19-0 record (7-12 ATS) and wants to close the deal. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business - you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” The Bulldogs have won 19 in a row, but are 7-14 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-3 ATS) ended up being the second place team in the Horizon with 12-6 regular season mark. The Blue Raiders demolished Detroit 69-50 in their only game in this tournament. Wright State has a strong backcourt with Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown averaging over 27 points per game, however they have lost six straight to Butler (2-4 ATS).
Butler is a seven-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse according to Bookmaker.com and they are 14-0 SU (5-9 ATS) in their own building this season. Wright State is 3-11 ATS in road lined games this season; however they are 9-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

Sun Belt Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A number of conference tournaments have gone according to form and the Sun Belt is another with the top two seeds matching up. Troy (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) is the No.1 seed and played like it last night winning 54-48, being a surprising underdog five-point underdog to No. 4 Western Kentucky. The Trojans have four players averaging double digits led by Brandon Hazzard’s 16.6 points per game. Troy averages 75.5 points a contest and is 5-0-1 ATS in last six outings.

North Texas (23-8, 16-7-1 ATS) can also change the numbers on the scoreboard quickly, totaling 74.5 PPG and they have four players of their own that average 10 or more points a contest. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS against conference foes and are 11-6 and 9-5-1 ATS away from Denton.

North Texas won and covered at Troy 75-72 as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, however the teams have split four games the last couple of years. Both squads have winning spread records at neutral site locations, with the Mean Green exceptional at 17-5 ATS and oddsmakers have this going to the wire at a Pick.

Summit League Championship 9:00E ESPN2

The third championship conflict of the night also features a 1 vs. 2 matchup. Regular season champ Oakland (25-8, 5-8 ATS) rolls into the title game on a 10-game winning streak, having won and covered both Summit tourney games. The Golden Grizzlies have four different players that are capable scorers, each scoring 10 or more points, however their best player is center Keith Benson, averaging 17.3 PPG and 10.3 rebounds. Guard Johnathon Jones hands out 6.4 assists per game, while averaging over 12 PPG. Oakland is 12-7 SU away from home.

No.2 IUPUI (24-9, 8-6 ATS) has three individuals that score as well as any trio in the country. Robert Glenn, Alex Young and Leroy Nobles average 51.3 points a contest, with each providing a different skill that limits what opposing teams can do to shutdown at least one of them off. The Jaguars have a six game winning streak themselves and are 13-7 SU on the road.

These teams split a pair of games in 2010 and Oakland holds the all-time edge 19-14. Oakland made the tournament in 2005 and has lost twice in the Summit championship game, including last year. IUPUI won the tournament in 2003 and has also lost two times in the league title tilt. The opening number on this matchup is a Pick.

Hunting for Hoops Winners Can Be Done

With football over for yet another season, unless the Pro Bowl is part of your betting plans, it is time to turn full attention to college basketball wagering. With Wednesday, Thursday and especially Saturday cards often cumbersome because of the sheer volume of games, it can be wise to shave the number of contests down to more manageable numbers. How this can be accomplished is finding particular conferences that have proven to have value.

By now, every league is either at or halfway past the midpoint of conference slate and solid information can be found to utilize for wagering purposes. Three conferences in particular have yielded distinct info, which should be followed, with the intent of cashing in for significant profits.

The Sun Belt Conference is like a few other leagues in college landscape. The Big Ten has 11 teams, the Atlantic 10 has 14 squads and Denver U. and North Texas (Denton) would hardly be considered part of anybody’s list of vacation spots in the Sun Belt region. Fortunately, the goal isn’t to be like the late George Carlin and make sense of the arrangement, instead just to study the facts.

Presently, the Sun Belt ranks 19th in the latest Sagarin Ratings in college hoops among the 33 conferences. With the SBC a bit unwieldy with its 13 teams, certain numbers can be skewed in determining different factors. For example, a conference with vast number of universities could see the records of home team wins watered-down by those occupying the lower regions. The Big East is a perfect example of this, with the division between the have’s and have-nots, roughly the size of our domestic and foreign trade imbalance.

Sun Belt home teams have won 63 percent of conference games (41-24) which is about average overall. This is where things get interesting. Only one team in the league has a defense that allows below 40 percent shooting (39.8), and that is Arkansas State who comes in at 13-8 and .500 in league play.

Thus we establish the SBC is not a great defensive league, which leads to the profit point we are seeking. Sun Belt home teams cough up the cash with great regularity, sporting a 23-41-1, 35.9 ATS mark. With just a few better teams like Western Kentucky, Ark-Little Rock and Middle Tenn. State, the rest are pedestrian, with no atrocious teams, save Florida Atlantic.

This looks to be a real opportunity, with one caveat. Denver University, year in, year out, is one of the toughest stops in the Sun Belt because of the altitude. This season the Pioneers are 4-1 SU and ATS in league action playing at Magness Arena. Subtract Denver’s wins and are wager on SBC road teams improves.

The Western Athletic Conference from time to time makes some noise and is ranked 13th by the Sagarin numbers. Utah State has just one blemish on the docket this season, losing to BYU. In truth, the rest of the conference record-wise leaves much to be desired. Nevada and Boise State are both not as strong as a year ago and the rest of the other six schools are at or below .500.

In league play, the home teams have among the worst records in all of college basketball, with a 20-15 record (57.1 percent). In studying the WAC’s numbers, all the teams are ordinary to slight better than average defensively, and offensively, most teams shoot the ball relatively well. The point is, other than Utah State, every team is capable of beating another home or away. This presents a splendid opportunity to play against home teams who are 12-23 against the spread.

Earlier, imbalance was mentioned in different conferences, where the best teams are Dick Vitale “Flat-out superior”. This appears to be the case in the Colonial Athletic Association, where Northeastern, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel are far above the rest, especially playing on the own courts.

These four teams have compiled a 20-3 record in league play at home and are sensational 17-6 ATS against all CAA comers, including playing among themselves.

In these recessionary times, we all have to work a little harder to have what we need and as this proves; the extra work can place more money in your pocket.

Betting Home Courts in College Hoops

The home court advantage in college basketball varies widely. Some handicappers automatically assign a number to everybody’s home court, usually 3 to 5 points. The well-known statistician, Jeff Sagarin, whose work appears in “USA Today”, usually has it pegged on average as slightly less than four points.

It is my belief the value of the home court varies among teams. Certain conferences even show tendencies on how teams generally perform as a home favorite or underdog. One of the biggest challenges in handicapping college hoops is the sheer number of games to wager on. With way over 200 lined teams to wager on, I will look at any thing that gives me an edge. Using the generalization of conference tendencies helps me eliminate some games or put them on my “short list” for further evaluation.

For example, UC-Riverside is a team I believe is worthy of backing and recently made my “play on” list. They were visiting Denver University. Denver is on my list of not to play against at home. The reason is Denver is 29-13 against the point spread at home the past four seasons, a 69% success rate. UCR was a 4 to 5.5 underdog but ending up losing and failing to cover, albeit it was a close game. Even though I am looking to play UCR, I am not going to play them against a team with such a great home court ATS record as Denver’s.

Other teams with excellent home ATS records the past four years are Weber State, 29-13, Southern Miss, 25-13, 65.8%, Mississippi State, 35-20, 63.6%, and Bradley, Tennessee, Wright State, and New Mexico, all above 60%. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, ACC powerhouses North Carolina, 39-18, 68.4%, and Duke, 35-23, 60.3%, are money-makers at home.

Many people call great winning straight-up records at home a “great home court advantage”. Well, to the average fan that is correct who doesn’t care about point spread results. To the sports bettor, a great home court straight-up record might even mean a team is good to bet against on their “strong home court” as the linesmaker might be giving their opponents extra value. Wisconsin has a great home record straight-up, 141-14, over the past ten seasons going into this year. I easily can see playing the Badgers in a short-lined game or as a home underdog. However, over the past four years Wisconsin is only 28-29 ATS in home lined games. Their SU record is impressive, 64-5, over those four years, but the ATS mark is what I look at first.

As mentioned above, let’s look at some of the conference tendencies we have discovered.

Since the 2004 season, The Big 12 has had a very good record when they are at home lined at pick’em or a very short favorite up to -2.5 points: 30-13, 69.8%. The home favorite advantage stops when Big 12 teams are laying 7 to 17 points as at that level the home squad can only muster a 44.2% coverage rate, 68-86. Home dogs fare fairly well in the Big 12 as home teams getting 3 or more points but less than 10 are 40-29, 58.0%.

Another strong home court advantage in conference play shows up in the Big Ten where single-digit home favorites are covering the spread at a wallet-fattening 58.9% of the time, 99-69, since 2004. However, those point spread wins don’t come very easily when the home favorite is laying double-digits. Teams laying ten-points or more have cashed tickets only 43.7% of the time even though straight-up the highly-favored home team has won 105 out of 108 games.

Something many sports bettors don’t do is to look at lined totals in college hoops. Maybe this stat will have you start paying more attention to playing totals: In Big 10 conference games involving double-digit home favorites, the Under is 61-36, 62.9%. If the points being laid is 14 or more, the Under improves to 68.2%.

The Big East is one of the worst conferences overall when it comes to home-court advantage. With 16 teams in the basketball version of the conference, there is a larger gap in quality of the top-tier and bottom-rung teams. Home underdogs of any point spread have only covered the number 43.7% of the time over the past four seasons. An interesting side note is the Over wins 54.2% of the time when a home dog in league play is involved.

A strong home-court advantage is not the case in the Big East when the home team is a single-digit underdog covering the spread only 43.2% of the time. The Big East is such a large league that many times there is a bigger difference in talent from the top to the bottom and the number of sub-par teams.

In direct contrast to the Big East, the Sun Belt Conference has an exceptional record for home dogs since 2004, 49-34 ATS, 59.0%. The sweet spot is when a home team is getting 3 to 6.5 points, 22-9 ATS, 71.0%. The geographic range of the SBC is rather large stretching from Denver to the tip of Florida. Some of the smaller cities where schools are located also helps make travel a challenge.

Of course if you want to believe that a fair amount of distance traveled to a road destination is a factor, then you would want to look at the WAC. There are schools located in Louisiana to Idaho to Hawaii. There is a super-sharp differential between the point spread record of home favorites and underdogs at home. Regardless of the line, WAC teams laying points at home in a conference game have only covered the number 42.8% of the time since the 2004 season. The best line to bet against home faves is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 64.8% winners taking the road team and the points.

Road favorites in the WAC don’t do well either, 39-51, 43.3%. Again, the good spot to go against these favorites is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 26-36, 41.9%. However, a past trend you should know about is these WAC road teams giving less than seven points are 26-12 Over the lined total, 68.4%.

I imagine a lot of people assume that teams traveling to Hawaii for a conference game helps skew the numbers believing the visiting team will be too tired and the influence of the time zone difference. Actually, over the past four seasons, Hawaii has virtually an exact .500 ATS record in conference play. Yes, their straight-up record is very good, but the point spread is the great equalizer and you know the oddsmaker is shading the line to Hawaii’s side in home games on the island.

In conference play, an exceptional home court advantage when the line is a pick’em to a 2.5 point underdog occurs in the Southeastern Conference. Small home dogs are 22-12, 64.7%, against the spread since 2004 in the SEC. The straight-up record isn’t bad either at 19-15. With the line that small, the teams are very evenly matched and the advantage of playing at home comes through.

However, in SEC games if the two teams aren’t as evenly matched and the home team is getting 3 to 7 points, the ATS record of the home team is a losing 21-31, 40.4%, and a dismal 18-34 SU, 34.6%.

For you totals players, a great spot in SEC games that wins 73.9% of the time since 2004 is to take the Under when a home team is favored by 14 or more points.

The Mid-American Conference has a very strong home-court advantage overall. However, it really is because of the huge quality difference between a few good squads and three to six squads that fall below 200 in college RPI ratings. Home favorites in MAC games over the past four seasons are winning ATS at a 58.6% rate, 157-111. Teams from pick’em to 2.5 point favorites are virtually .500, 28-30 ATS. However, with such a wide differential in the top MAC squads and the bottom-feeders, you would assume home dogs don’t do so well. Overall, the past four seasons home MAC dogs are covering 47.6% of the point spreads.

Knowing the true value of home courts helps the sports bettor gain an edge for profitability.

Author Jim Kruger is the brains behind Las Vegas Sports Authority.