Betting Lessons Learned from the Hardwood

How could you not come away impressed with how Memphis completely bottled up Gonzaga’s offense. The Bulldogs had no good looks, never got close to an offensive rhythm. The difference in quickness resembled college vs high school teams. Not putting the Tigers back in the Final Four, however this is a team on the come and oddsmakers are going to be adding points the rest of the season.

The SEC has caught a lot of grief and deservedly so. One team that has quietly emerged is the LSU Tigers. They have the conferences best record at 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) and have bountiful experience with upperclassmen like Marcus Thornton, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple who were all on the team that went to the Final Four. With the SEC down and the Tigers losing by 30 at Utah and recently by 10 at home to Xavier, this is hardly an elite team, but they still have time to come together and be a force in March and should keep covering conference spreads.

While talking SEC, with Alabama’s loss at LSU, this makes it 17 consecutive road defeats for the Crimson Tide in conference play. (6-11 ATS)

Notre Dame’s performance (or lack there of) looked like the Irish football team when it flew West the last several years to face USC. No determination, no desire. Losing seven games in a row with do that after you have been in the Top 10. Luke Harangody is a great college player, yet obviously, not a locker room lawyer who shake up his teammates. No fight left in the Irish, being strictly play against.

Arizona State has won four Pac-10 road games in a row (4-0 ATS) for the first time in 28 years. True.

Two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 were upset this past weekend. Xavier and Dayton both could have been looking ahead to this Wednesday’s matchup and got clipped in unusual fashion. The Musketeers were beaten because DuQuesne shot a blistering 81 percent in the first half and lost by four as five-point favorites. The next day, Dayton was in position to be tied for first place in the A-10 and they never came out of the locker room at halftime, outscored by Charlotte 46-29, who won for just the second time in league play.

Florida State is 18-5 (11-5-1 ATS) and four of their losses have come against North Carolina, Duke, Miami-Fl. and Pittsburgh. The Seminoles are the tallest team in the country and wore down Clemson at there place, closing the contest on 23-4 run to pull the upset. This is a dangerous underdog.

If anyone finds the Texas, Syracuse and Georgetown teams from early January, please make sure to call respective coaches, each is wondering where they disappeared to.

In the NBA, arguably the most impressive performance all season was the Los Angeles Lakers sweeping Boston and Cleveland on the road. They did so without Andrew Bynum and pedestrian to sub-par efforts from a somewhat ill Kobe Bryant. The Lakers demonstrated mental toughness not normally associated with this club.

You can’t help but feel for the Minnesota losing Al Harrington, back to being a doormat after 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS January.

Did the Clippers really win back-to-back road games by a total of 45 points or was I just punch drunk from going a few a rounds with Chris Brown? That is the first time the Clips have won two road games consecutively since Nov. 6-7, 2007.

Wednesday Betting Information

A peculiar 1-1-1 day as Tennessee pushed at home with line moving up to -27. I was pleased to be on Florida State and escaped by a single point. The Washington Generals couldn’t beat the Harlem Globetrotters, sorry Miami Heat as expected. We have a perfect Trend loaded for reasoning in the NBA this evening. No great systems available today, thus will look to college football on Saturday with TWO plays out an 81.8 percent system. Also, the LCC checks in on tonight's important college football game.Good Luck.

Updating 3Daily Winners at monitors.

Free Sports Monitor #1 NFL
Free Sports Monitor #2 CBB
The Sports Eye #3 NFL
The Sports Eye #5 CFB
The Sports Eye #1 NHL (Free Plays)
Cappers Watchdog #7 NFL (Win percentage - Min.20 plays)
Cappers Watchdog #2 NHL (Win percentage)


Free Football System-1) Play Against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after having won three out of their last four games against opponent after having won six or seven out of their last eight games. This college football system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent. There are two Play Against teams the fit, Air Force and Michigan State.

Free Basketball Trend -2) UTAH is 11-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has tonight's big MAC game this way - Central Michigan 10 members, Ball State minus the points 3 members.

Tuesday Wagering Options

Yesterday’s 2-1 record makes 3Daily Winners 7-2 the last three days, which is nice to see. We are not expecting these types of results all the time, especially with basketball coming more into focus, creating more volatility. All we ask is be patient, take it one day at a time and as we have shown the results will be there. The highly ranked Tennessee Vols are very difficult to beat at home as you can see in today’s Top Trend. Our Top System will summon strength from a lower region to play this NBA team, yet impossible to say a 95.2 percent play is a bad idea. Free Plays nothing special, with strong opinion offered. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Washington (Generals) Wizards after going under the total by more than six points in three consecutive games, who have a winning percentage of 25 percent or less on the season. This system is sumptuous 20-1 ATS. Holy _ _ _ _!

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Tennessee Vols are 16-2 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Nobody is too crazy about tonight's card in any sports. Only six guys from the Left Coast Connection are betting NIU and Kent State, with the Huskies a 4-2 choice. A few like the Indiana Pacers in the NBA and the college basketball plays are all over the board. Myself, I like Florida State because they were favored by 17.5 at home to LaSalle last season and with both teams having similar players back, the Noles are just a three point play on the road, with typical swing about eight points.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror Betting CFB

Seeing the latest craze in college football by some teams is to change the tempo of the offense and run more plays to keep the defense from changing players to fit situations, I’ll do the same thing this week.

Oklahoma State was expected to be better in 2008, but Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech were all presumed to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 South back in August. Thus far the Cowboys are the only team in college football not to suffer a spread loss at 7-0. You have to wonder if T. Boone Pickens is a betting man (sports’ betting that is), since if he bet his alma mater each game and had “let it ride”, he would be overcoming some of the big financial hits he has taken. It’s becoming more evident coach Mike Gundy can coach and recruit a little. Just asking- If you watched Oklahoma State and USC play on the road last week, whom do you think looked like the better team?

Tulsa is unbeaten and 6-1 ATS and had great second half in covering the spread against Central Florida. They have very good receivers and fascinating way of attacking both on offense and defense. Yet could not help but wonder if they wouldn’t be 6-10 point underdogs to Boise State and TCU on neutral fields, let alone against a top level BCS squad. Big test at Arkansas this week and at Houston on Nov.15.

Minnesota is 7-1 and 6-1 ATS and plays three of final four games at home. The Golden Gophers after a 1-11 campaign caught a scheduling break this season in avoiding Michigan State and Penn State. No doubt Minnesota is much improved, but here is a scary thought. If the Nittany Lions remain unbeaten and Texas or Alabama loses, and Ohio State slips up again, that could mean Minny goes to the Rose Bowl to face possibly face USC. A talented Illinois team was catching 13.5 last year, would the Gophers be on the receiving end of 20?

Though not official yet, Michigan will have 33-year bowl streak broken, still having to play three of last four on the road, including at Ohio State. At 2-6 and 1-7 ATS, the most disconcerting aspect of this Rich Rodriquez coached team is they have not gotten better. Though media-types have continued to say Rodriquez will win in Ann Arbor, watching him and his team on the sidelines is very uncomforting. This isn’t supposed to happen at Michigan. The last Michigan team not to go bowling was the 1974 squad who lost at Ohio State 12-10, ending their perfect 10-0 season, with far fewer bowls back in those days. This won’t have quite the same feel.

Fresno State was supposed to finally win the WAC, but once again the always bold talking Bulldogs are nothing special and causing backer’s lots of cash with 1-6 ATS record. Fresno State’s wins at Rutgers and UCLA are far less impressive today as is the narrow loss at home to Wisconsin. Losing at home to Hawaii is ridiculous and they could hardly have been any luckier in winning at Utah State 30-28 last Saturday as 15-point favorites. Coach Pat Hill has this tough guy persona, but how tough is it to bet against the 105th ranked run defense? Hill reminds me of a golfer who shoots one over par at the hardest course in town and is a 12-handicap at easiest course in the area. Of course all he talks about is his one great round.

Quick notes- What did I say about Pittsburgh last week, NEVER trust a Dave Wannstedt coached-team that is supposed to win.

Just a few of weeks ago it was fun to see the “smart” schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern doing so well. The Commodores looked like MSNBC poll showing Barack Obama leading the presidential race, with 5-0 record. Three losses later and confronted with Florida and Tennessee at home and at Kentucky and at Wake Forest, the first bowl possibility in 26 years is slipping again. Northwestern not only lost at insipid Indiana, they lost all everything running back Tyrell Sutton.

Florida State is not only 6-1 and 3-2 ATS, they are returning to physical, smarter football.

At the end of September, talked about what a mess the Big East was based on how down the league is this year, it made sense to look at road teams in conference game. Thus far road teams are 6-4 ATS with four outright wins. One aspect not considered was road favorites and they are 1-2 SU and ATS.

After a 5-8-1 start, college football teams off a three exact spread covers are 10-3 ATS the last three weeks. That would mean Arkansas, Florida, Iowa and Louisville are possible play on teams. The opposite would be true for those failing to cover in a trio of tilts. On the season this group is 9-18-1 ATS and Clemson, Iowa State and Kentucky all make this week’s play against watch list.

Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley