Best Bets in College Basketball

College basketball has evolved into conference play and a number of teams have gaudy records, some are of value and others not. In the sports wagering game of cat and mouse, spread wins and losses supersede conventional win/loss numbers, as team’s heavy one way or the other draw the scrutiny of those setting the lines. Let’s face it, understanding information is the key to winning consistently, along with an instinct to spot a winner based on various factors. Here we will look at a number of the top winning college basketball teams covering the spread and if they are a good or bad bet going deeper into the season.

St. Mary’s (14-2, 13-2 ATS)

The Gaels lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad, including the brilliant Paddy Mills and figured to finish no better than third place in what could a down year for the West Coast Conference. It was fairly easy to make the argument that St. Mary’s was burned by the NCAA after being snubbed with 28-7 record, primarily because Mills suffered hand injury and the team faltered because of that down the stretch. Players like center Omar Samhan vowed to make sure that wouldn’t happen again and has kept his word thus far. It would be incorrect to call the Gaels schedule imposing; nevertheless, they’ve faced teams that at least deserved to have a spread in virtually every contest. St. Mary’s is a patient offensive team, shooting almost 50 percent and works the ball around for good shoots in coach Randy Bennett’s offense. Defensively, the Gaels are adequate in holding opponents to around 42 percent shooting and as usual are lights out at tiny McKeon Pavilion (3,500 capacity) with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS record. St. Mary’s notoriety mostly comes from playing Gonzaga; oddsmakers won’t pay a great deal of attention to them as long as they don’t enter the Top 25 or make a lot of headlines. Should be able to secure a fair price on the Gaels in the coming weeks.

Texas (15-0, 8-3 ATS)

Coach Rick Barnes Longhorns are very deserving of high ranking and for a club this high on the charts, have covered an abnormal amount of games. In trying to understand why, Texas has faced an exceptional non-conference slate, which has presented less inflated numbers that would correlate with top-notch status. The Longhorns have proven they have the skill and depth to override opposing teams. This has been particularly true against teams that compete with Texas for 25-30 minutes, then players that could start for most of the Horns opponents, overwhelm them down the stretch as these bench players and fresher starters are able to play their game against worn out foe. Texas is 8-3 ATS as favorite, but is not lock they appear. Coach Barnes has to get after his guys from time to time, since they are so skilled on offense; they kept caught up in making buckets instead of defending the basket. Most of the time they will be able to overcome this and cover inflated numbers, but as was the case in the Arkansas road conflict, they surrendered 48 first half points and never was close to covering the 14-point spread due to lack of defensive intensity.

Kansas State (13-2, 7-3 ATS)

The Manhattan ‘Cats were supposed to be good, but not this good! Though Bob Huggins stay was just one season, he made an indelible mark on the program and coach Frank Martin continued right where Huggins left off. Kansas State’s depth allows Martin to sit any player who is not going all out on the floor. Martin wants his players like a Motorhead CD, aggressive on offense, defense and crashing the boards. The Wildcats are blessed with an exceptional backcourt. Shooting guard Jacob Pullen can scorch the nylon and really heat up beyond the arc. Denis Clemente pushes the ball with his blazing speed for easy layups or passes for spot up three’s by teammates. K-State lacks that one consistent scorer in the paint, nonetheless junior Curtis Kelly and Luis Colon have played better this season. Kansas State will see inflated numbers at Bramlage Coliseum, however are still worth consideration if opponent is weak defensively (44 percent shooting percentage or higher). On the road, taking the purple clad ‘Cats as underdogs is good wager, as long as the opposing team has an average or less backcourt, which Clemente and Pullen could run roughshod on. This team feeds on emotion and is 11-2 and 6-2 ATS after a victory.

Oregon State (7-8, 8-2 ATS)

At the beginning of 2010, the general appearance is coach Craig Robinson, might be having a better first quarter than is brother in law (The President) in the court of public opinion. The Oregon State head man might be carrying a small container of Tums in sport jacket, as his Beavers have played nine of 15 games decided by eight or fewer points. Robinson, in his second year, is working on upgrading the talent in Corvallis, but until then has decided that playing defense is the best way for his team to have a chance to win. It’s nothing fancy for Orange and Black, focusing on playing positional defense, not getting beat off the bounce and helping out when necessary. Despite a 2-4 SU record as an underdog, Oregon State has hung tough, losing by just 1.2 points per game in that role and sporting a busy 6-0 ATS record. With the Pac-10 languishing this season, the Beavers catching points looks like an opportune wager.

Villanova (11-1, 11-4 ATS)

College basketball is a guard-oriented sport, since it is much easier to find players that can be dynamic at 6’3 or less than it is to find a 6’10 big man. Coach Jay Wright has always understood this and recruited accordingly. That doesn’t mean Wright wants a one-trick pony in backcourt, his players have to be versatile performers offensively and defensively and willing to track down rebounds. Villanova’s quick getaway has been fueled by persistent defensive pressure, keeping foes right around 40 percent shooting and Scottie Reynolds directs an offense NASCAR champion Jimmy Johnson would be proud, having many gears, including sticking it on the floor. Studying the patterns of the Wildcats against the spread the last several years, oddsmakers have had a real beat on Nova. They seldom cover by more than four or five points, which is coach Wright’s style of play. The Wildcats are 12-1 and 9-4 ATS as chalk and have been superb when playing with three or more days off with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS mark. Big East play tends to grind up most teams, keeping them around .500 against the number. For the short term, as long as Villanova continues to play great defense, they have to be considered a play on team as a favorite or dog.

Northern Iowa (14-1, 11-3 ATS)

Subtract the head-scratching loss to DePaul in the second game of the season; the Panthers are on track for a truly special campaign. Northern Iowa returned nine players that accounted for 91.7 percent of its scoring from team that tied for first in the Missouri Valley and won the conference tournament to earn NCAA berth. The Panthers aren’t going to mesmerize opponents with blazing speed; however they will carve them up a like turkey with the conference’s best inside duo, accurate outside shooters and a team that doesn’t make mistakes. 7’1, 290 pound Jordan Eglseder is turning into dominant beast, as he and Adam Koch control the paint. The perimeter players feature a cast of sharp shooters, with the Panthers hovering around 40 percent all season from three-point range. With all the veterans on this team, they are unaffected by outside surroundings and just goes about their business of winning basketball games. This team started the year with three goals, win the Valley regular reason and postseason tournament to earn higher seed and get to at least the Sweet 16. Would not recommend betting against them.

Las Vegas Bowl Preview

This is easily the best of the early bowl conflicts, ranking 8th on our radar, with two Top 25 teams. This is BYU’s fifth straight Las Vegas Bowl, which seemingly isn’t that big a problem, since the Mormons have a large population in the southern part of Nevada. Maybe in a different economy, the Cougars (10-2, 5-7 ATS) might be inclined to look at another site, but given the choice, Vegas made the most sense.

BYU’s senior class has won 10 or more games for the fourth year in a row. Quarterback Max Hall directs the 13th best pass attack in the land at 299.6 yards per game. Coach Bronco Mendenhall is an Oregon State alumnus and former defensive coordinator with the Beavers and hopes for running back Harvey Unga continued health. Slowed with severely injured hamstring in fall camp, only recently has Unga gone full tilt like he did against Utah in gaining 116 yards. Opposing coaches agree, the Cougars are much harder to prepare for with a healthy Unga. BYU is 4-13 ATS after the first month of the season the last two years.

Oregon State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) was oh so close to making first Rose Bowl appearance in 46 years, but came up short to rival Oregon in pivotal contest. A justifiable question is the Beavers mental state after falling to the Ducks. In a similar scenario a year ago, Oregon State bounced back and won the Sun Bowl, however this year they have nine fewer days to prepare, making it harder to gauge response time.

Sean Canfield closed career with a brilliant senior campaign (16th passing offense), completing a school-record 70 percent of his passes. The Rodgers brothers, Quizz and James, will test BYU’s speed on the defensive perimeter. Oregon State is 13-4 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest under coach Mike Riley.

BYU opened as early 1.5-point favorites and were swiftly turned around to underdogs. The Cougars are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs other bowl teams, with Oregon State 3-4 and 4-3 ATS. The BYU bowl history is pretty pathetic at 9-17-1 SU and 9-16-1 ATS, including 6-9 ATS as underdogs. The Beavers are 8-5 SU and 5-3 ATS (5-0 and 4-1 ATS under Riley), with 5-3 spread record as favorites. Since the bowl committee established an affiliation with the Mountain West, the conference is 6-6 and 5-6-1 ATS.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon State now posted as 2.5-point favorites, with total having sunk two points to 58.5. Both teams were excellent away from home, with the eager Beavers 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and the feisty Cougars 6-0 and 4-2 ATS, winning by over 26 points a game.

Oregon State is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons and the total might be an indicator of outcome since coach Riley’s team is 7-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

This is 8:00 Eastern start on ESPN and the favorite in a BYU bowl game is on 7-0 and 5-2 ATS run.

3DW Line – Oregon State by 4

Pac-10 title on the line in Oregon

ESPN undoubtedly would love to take credit for having the foresight to knowing this year’s “Civil War” between Oregon State and Oregon would have this much at stake. Alas, even the worldwide leader in sports knows that you luck into situations like this, having a Rose Bowl bid at stake. This is the first time ever the conflict has meant a trip to the “Grand Daddy of them all” for both schools.

Even the most optimistic of Oregon State backers saw a middle of the road Beavers team for 2009 and even a month ago would not have had a clue their team would be playing for the right to go to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions.

But on Nov. 7, after upsetting California on the road 31-14 and Oregon losing at Stanford, things started to fall into place for these suddenly eager Beavers. After that win, coach Mike Riley tried to add perspective to his team about lie ahead, “if you win a big game, then the next one gets bigger.” His players accepted the challenge and are riding three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS) and is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight Pac-10 games over the last two seasons.

Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) fans have not made the trek to Pasadena since the first day of 1964. Coach Riley might have a national power if his team could ever get off to fast start. After beginning 2-2 the Beavers have gnawed their way to six wins and covers in last seven games. Oregon State is 16-7 SU and ATS the last four games of the regular season since 2004.

Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS) was brilliant in coming from behind at Arizona, trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 31 in the waning seconds before a frenzied crowded that was ready to storm the field. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was unbelievable down the stretch and in overtime and placed his team in position to be outright Pac-10 champions with a victory against their most hated rival. The Ducks were last conference champions in 2001, but were moved to Fiesta Bowl because of BCS arrangement at the time. A win by Oregon has them playing New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. Oregon is 7-1 ATS with additional rest.

Oregon has scored 42 or more points in each Pac-10 game Masoli has started. He’s a master at running the read-option and powerful runner. His passing and judgment has improved all season. He’ll lead the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing offense against the top-rated run defense. The Beavers only allow 98.4 yards per game on the ground, but were lit up for 385 rushing yards last year at home by the Ducks. Oregon’s incredible efficiency has them 14-3 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 9.5-points favorites with total of 61.5. Oregon State knows to win quarterback Sean Canfield has to be on target for league’s best passing attack. The Beavers also have to be able to run close to their average of 147 yards, after gaining just 89 yards in last year’s battle. OSU is 14-3 ATS after the first month of the season and is 9-1 UNDER in road games off three straight wins against conference competition. The outcome could well be determined by the total score with the Ducks 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last two years, winning by over 17 points per game.

This Pac-10 title tilt starts at 9:00 Eastern and Oregon is 7-14 ATS since 1988 vs. Oregon State, however the home teams is 8-4 ATS in last 12.

Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5