Minnesota and Detroit Showdown

What is the deal with baseball teams not being able to determine a winner after playing 162 games? In the entire history of Major League Baseball, there has only been eight previous one game playoffs to determine a division or league winner, however this will be the third in three years when Detroit travels to Minnesota.

This is turning out to be quite a 24-hour period at the Metrodome, with Brett Favre facing his old team and Vikings fans in full throat going up against the North Division rival the Green Bay Packers. This is followed up on Tuesday with AL Central rivals Detroit and the Twins having to settle their differences in the diamond.

The Twins and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records; however there is no doubt who has the momentum. Minnesota closed the season 16-4, which included four victories over Detroit to force a second straight 163rd game. Besides playing exceptional baseball, the Twins will have the home field advantage, which is as intimidating a place in baseball when the place is packed. Officials in Minnesota decided to pull back the upper-deck outfield curtain to expand seating to more than 50,000 fans for the game. Tickets sold out within minutes. The Twins are 48-33 on their home field this season

"Every pitch," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said, "will be a roar."

The Tigers could use a roar of their own, winning four times in last 10 games to find themselves in this predicament. Subtract the 12-5 win over Chicago on Sept. 26 and the Detroit offensive has tallied 3.1 runs per game to finish the season. From a matchup standpoint, not many strong points for the Tigers to rally around with 7-11 record vs. Minnesota this season (the reason the game is in Minneapolis), including a 2-7 record when playing under the roof.

Playing in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and 50,000 screaming Twins fans is part of the reason the Tigers finished 35-46 on the road this year. Manager Leyland is hoping the bats wake up, with his club is 24-11 having lost three of their last four games this season.

What a spot for a rookie pitcher, which is what Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.40 ERA) faces. Porcello closed strong with 2-1 record, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four starts. The down side for the right-hander is 0-2 mark, with a 6.30 ERA in two starts at the Metrodome.

Bookmaker.com has Minny as -165 money line favorites with total of 8.5. Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36) has the assignment for Ron Gardenhire and likes the setup. “There's no way to go around the fact that we're playing in the Dome and not in Detroit," said Twins right-hander. "I think we've seen in the past how well we play in front of our fans and how much it can affect the outcome of the game. We're all very excited to be here at the Dome."

Minnesota is 24-7 in home games with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and they are 24-7 when Baker starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.

For totals players, the side might be an indication of how to bet the total. The Twinkies are 14-5 OVER at home with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. Detroit on the other hand is 16-6 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175 in 2009.

Don’t look to history to leave many clues, with the home team 4-4 in play-in games. First pitch is 5:07 Eastern on TBS and possibly the winner is told by the line. Detroit is 30-59 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons and Minnesota is 76-40 as a home favorite of -110 or higher in the same time span.

The winner gets the Yankees in New York on Wednesday to start ALDS.

MLB Series Wagering- Twins at Tigers

For most of the season, the Minnesota Twins have been a floundering baseball club, not being good enough to run neck and neck with Detroit in the AL Central, nor bad enough to hang out with Cleveland and Kansas City. This weekend in the Motor City, they will have chance to change people’s perception of them, including their own.

The Twins (53-55, -7.8 units) have lost five of six and are undernourished 22-32 on the road, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Minnesota is in third place, 4 ½ games behind Detroit and knows the significance of turning season around quickly. “They’re all important when you’re chasing,” Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. “It’s in our division and on the road. You don’t want to get too far behind or too far under .500.”

Detroit (57-50, +2.2 units) on the other hand has been a punishing home team. The Tigers are 34-17 at Comerica Park, which ties them for the fourth best home record with Tampa Bay and they are very profitable +12.4 units. Besides wanting to create distance between Central Division rivals, Detroit wants to get Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22 ERA) pointed in opposite direction. Galarraga has lost his last three decisions (Tigers have fallen five straight when Galarraga starts), having last won on June 30 against Oakland. "No pitcher in the history of the game can hide from the fact that you've got to throw strikes," manager Jim Leyland said in reference to his right-hander. "Every pitching coach talks about the same thing: Strike one. There's nothing new about that, but there's also a lot of truth to that.” Detroit is a -110 home favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 9.5, with Galarraga and teammates 2-12 in night games.

Minnesota will counter with Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25), who was among the pitchers torn up by the Los Angeles Angels last weekend. Swarzak is a rookie and though his numbers are not overly impressive, he’s 2-0, with 2.22 ERA pitching on the road in four starts (Twins 3-1). With Minnesota off a tough 2-1 loss yesterday at Cleveland, they are 8-0 after losing by a single run versus a division rival over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

Saturday’s contest will have the Tigers as large chalk favorites and they come into this series 28-12 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The main reason for being tagged with big number is because Jason Verlander (12-5, 3.29) is Detroit’s starting pitcher. Twins hitters don’t figure to have an easy time with hard throwing right-hander. Those swinging from the right side of the plate are batting only .223 against Verlander and he has 1.66 ERA this season in home games. Overall, Verlander and Detroit are 22-4 at Comerica against teams with losing records.

With Minny starting this series with 28-10 record after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last two years, they will need Glen Perkins (6-7, 5.95) to do a 180-degree turn, after being shelled for season highs in runs (9) and hits (12) by the Halos. Perkins usually does a descent job once thru the batting order, but because he lacks an “out’ pitch, hitters are very comfortable the second or third time around. The only bright news is Perkins and the Twins are 10-4 when he hurls in Game 2’s. Totals players should be aware 10 of those 14 starts have gone OVER.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The scheduled Sunday afternoon pitchers are Scott Baker (9-7, 4.59) for Minnesota and Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 2.93) for Detroit. Baker was horrible to start 2009, but has emerged as Gardenhire’s ace since June. Baker is 7-1 since June 4, allowing three or less runs in 10 of his last dozen starts. Watch the money line on him since Baker and the Twinkies are 1-6 as underdogs.

Washburn was brought in to solidify Tigers staff and he suffered rocky first game wearing the “D” for a lid, giving up six runs in just over five innings against Baltimore in taking the loss. From pitching effectiveness perspective, he’s on pace to have career low ERA and could have his most wins since 2002 World Series season with the Angels (18). Left-handed batters are hitting only .184 against him, which could neutralize the M&M boys from Minnesota. Washburn is 4-2 in day games (team’s record) with 2.29 ERA and he’s on the right team with the Tigers 24-14 playing without lights.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

Because our guest selectors have been performing so well with 4-0 record, we’ll bring in another, professional gambler named Sal to make the pick.

“It’s tempting to pick the Twins because they have won six of eight against Detroit and have winning record (11-9) at Comerica the last three years. Verlander will dominate Game 2 for Detroit. Game 1 is likely an Over with two pitchers that will be lucky to see the sixth (inning). I’ll give the Twins the nod in the opener. This brings it down to Sunday. As much as I like Baker right now, the Tigers play so well at home and the Twins stink as visitors. Washburn settles down with new club and Detroit wins the series.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota +135, Detroit -170

3DWPick: Detroit

2009 Record – 6-9