MLB Series Wagering- Cardinals at Reds

This is the time of the year when baseball really starts to get fun because there is attractive matchups like this one that has meaningful significance to the pennant races. Almost the entire season, the echoes have reverberated San Diego and Cincinnati (64-48, +13.7 units) were a great baseball story, but eventually they would come back to earth and be the mediocre teams most expected back in March. With eight weeks to go in the regular season, barring a Sands hotel-like collapse, the first place Reds aren’t going anywhere.

Cincinnati’s unemployment rate is hovering at 10 percent, but for the first time in years, the baseball team is providing a positive distraction, in a town known as a great baseball community. The Reds return home off a 5-1 divisional road trip and lead St. Louis (61- 49, -6.1) by one game in the loss column and are 11-4 since July 23, including winning nine of last 11, in which they’ve outscored the opposition 70-33. “It’s time,” manager Dusty Baker said. “They (the players) had been wanting us to focus on it but we had to focus on the Cubs. To come in here and get a sweep in Chicago (first time in five years) is big for us.”

The Cardinals are top heavy and manager Tony LaRussa knows it. If St. Louis is going to repeat as division champions, they have to play better on the road (23-31) and get more out of the back end of the rotation. For this series in the Queen City, St. Louis come fully prepared with Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia and Adam Wainwright as the scheduled pitchers for the Redbirds. This terrific trio is 45-24 in games they’ve started, the best in baseball.

Carpenter (12-3, 2.91 ERA) will look to get St. Louis off to a good start in the series and he has been on top of his game. The right-hander is 3-0 in last five starts (all Cardinals’ wins), with undersized ERA of 1.64. Carpenter has three wins already this season against the Reds and is 10-3 with 1.96 ERA lifetime against Cincy. Sportsbooks have St. Louis as -133 money line favorites with total Ov7.5 for this ESPN 7:10 Eastern telecast and Carpenter and the Cards are is 9-1 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season, winning by two runs per contest.

The Reds counter with their rookie Mike Leake (7-3, 3.86), who after a sensational start, might be tiring, having lost last two starts and been hit hard. His earned run average in those defeats is 7.94 and Cincinnati is 6-15 at home after a win by win six runs or more, like yesterday’s 11-4 crushing of the Cubs. That number overlaps Baker teams that frankly were not very good and this Reds bunch is 24-11 after allowing four runs or less three straight games this year.

Game 1 Edge: St. Louis

The second game of the series brings elements relating to both clubs. St. Louis knows it can leave town atop the NL Central with a sweep and might not have to look back in doing so. The task is fundamentally difficult since Cincinnati has not been swept at Great American Ball Park in more than a year, falling to Colorado over three days in late July over early August.

Granted, Albert Pujols hits against everybody, but coming into this series he’s hot even by his own standards, having gone 16 for 32 with five homers and 11 RBIs in the last seven contests. Against Cincy this campaign he’s hitting .381 with three homers and 12 RBIs. Left-hander Jamie Garcia (9-5, 2.53) got two extra days off between starts after his worst outing of the season (8 runs and 10 hits over five innings) and manager LaRussa hopes that is the right tonic to get the young pitcher back to form. The Cards are 5-1 in Garcia’s last six starts against winning squads.

Cincinnati has been battering lefties of late with 16-5 mark. Reds starter Johnny Cueto (11-2, 3.24) has been devastating with 5-1 record and 1.55 ERA over his past nine starts. Don’t expect St. Louis to load up with LH hitters, as they are only batting .221 against Cueto, compared to RH batters who hitting .274. The Reds are 6-1 in previous seven Game 2’s outings and have won all five in that exact same situation in which Cueto was the starting pitcher.

Game 2 Edge: Cincinnati

The final contest of the series is a day time affair, with Adam Wainwright trading pitches with Bronson Arroyo. Wainwright (16-6, 2.07) often is the second fiddle of the St. Louis staff, but know this, he’s only the second hurler in the Cardinals storied history to have 16 victories and an ERA that low in 24 starts to begin a season. The other is Hall of Fame great Bob Gibson. The Redbirds are 21-18 in day games and if they are favored by -200 or less with Wainwright the pitcher, the Cards are 8-0.

Arroyo (12-6. 3.83) is in the Top 20 of units won at +6.4 in baseball. His career shows a pitcher who runs like a Moet faucet, hot or cold. He’s being scalding with 2.62 ERA in previous 10 starts and has not given up a run in consecutive starts. His changing speeds on his curveball has been wicked, with batters hitting a meek .177 against him. He and the Reds are 6-2 as underdogs and 22-18 under natural light.

Game 3 Edge: Cincinnati

Had my string of five series wins in a row snapped last week; however I feel I get back on track here. The Cardinals have the pitching edge with their exceptional starters, yet they 2-7 in road series since May and are 9-17 in traveling gray uniforms. The play here is the excited home underdog with a lot to prove and Cincinnati builds on lead by Wednesday evening.

Sportsbooks series odds: St. Louis -135, Cincinnati +105

3Daily Winners Pick: Cincinnati

3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info

For the most part, online sports bettors are in agreement with money line numbers oddsmakers placed on the 15 games on the baseball board. However, there is greater division in thought about how the Totals should play out and I’ll examine those three contests along with money line adjustments.

Atlanta at Washington 7:05 EDT

After registering 6.4 runs in the past five games, Atlanta was all geared to see Stephen Strasburg of Washington. With S-squared a late scratch, Braves’ hitters must have been disappointed and tallied only five hits in 3-0 shutout last night. This evening it is a pair of veteran pitchers on the hill with Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) squaring off against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12). The total opened at 8 and has since fallen to 7.5, with solid provocation. Hudson is 9-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals and Hernandez is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in his last four matchups with Braves. With Atlanta 13-4 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game and the Nats 10-1 UNDER after a contest with a combined score of four runs or less this season, the direction of the money appears accurate. Review SBGGlobal.com for all your baseball options.

Arizona at Philadelphia 7:05 EDT

The Phillies offense is crackling like expected, impressing those betting on sports with 6 runs per game during six-game winning streak. Roy Halladay (11-8, 2.28) will attempt to do his part in limiting the Arizona offense and the right-hander has permitted one or less runs in four of his last six starts. The Philadelphia hitters will look to dial in on the tosses of Edwin Jackson (6-9, 5.01), who has 6.85 ERA since throwing no-hitter on June 25. The total has headed downward for this NL conflict, starting at 8 and now at 7.5. Halladay could be expected to limit the D-Backs offensive output and is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) However, Jackson is very hittable and the Snakes bullpen ERA has 7.81 on the road and the club is 13-5 OVER after four or more consecutive losses this year. Not certain if the total is going the right way.

St. Louis at N.Y. Mets 7:10 EDT

In theory, the Mets were a sound underdog play on Tuesday, playing well at home against a Cardinals club that has failed in the road greys. New York won 8-2, raising home record to 31-16 (+12.8 units) and St. Louis fell to 21-29 (-6.6) as visitors. A matchup of left-handers has left sports bettors feeling more comfortable with the Metropolitans chances in Game 2 of the series. New York was a -119 ML choice at daybreak and has since jumped to -130 or higher. The Mets are 8-0 in home contests after batting .240 or worse over a 15-game span this campaign. While Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21) is having a brilliant rookie season, with the second lowest ERA among starting pitchers in baseball, Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79) is 50-16 after walking one or fewer hitters in each of his last two outings during his career. (Team's Record)

Baltimore at Toronto 7:05 EDT

Not sure what to make of this total sinking southward. This AL affair opened at 9.5 and has since gone to 9, which sort of made sense when Shawn Marcum was the scheduled starting pitcher for Toronto. The Blue Jays made a change to Brad Mills (7-4, 4.13 ERA in 16 starts for Triple-A Las Vegas), giving him his third Major League start and first of 2010. If you forget about the pitching switch, the Blue Jays are still 11-2 OVER at the Rogers Center vs. AL clubs scoring 4.7 or less runs game in the second half of the season since last year. Baltimore was again hammered 8-2 by Toronto and is 25-14 UNDER after scoring two runs or less and even with Jeremy Guthrie (4-10, 4.46) pitching better lately, the Orioles are 2-8 on the road with the lefty starter, who sports a 5.01 ERA in road uniform. Guthrie however, is 20-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year with average score 7.4 total runs.

L.A. Dodgers at San Diego 10:05 EDT

It’s unusual to say the least a team would win five of six while scoring a grand total of 11 runs, yet that is precisely what the Dodgers have done in pulling to within six games in the loss column of San Diego. Linemakers had the team from L.A. as +114 underdogs, but sports betting online fans have preferred the pedigree of the Dodgers and they now sit +100 pooches. Los Angeles is a stellar 26-8 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span and thought provoking 15-1 after five straight times where they had less than 10 hits. With Hiroki Kuroda (8-8, 3.48) in better form than Clayton Richard (7.13 ERA in four July starts), the visitor might well be the right play.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
Seattle is 4-23 against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more since 2008.

Totals Nugget
Florida is 14-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season, with average total score of 6.9 RPG.

Run Line Nugget
Arizona is 0-11 against the run line in road games vs. good fielding teams, averaging 0.6 or fewer errors a game in 2010, losing by alarming 5.3 RPG.

Hump Day Stuff

Even after a few so-so days, we are still a strong 117-65 here at 3Daily Winners. We posted a system earlier in the day and the Braves now also fit this killer tip at 85.7 percent system. Kendall’s Top Play and the Top Trend are from the same contest. Good Luck

What I noticed today – From Elias Sports: Tommy Hunter improved to 7-0 in nine starts with a win over the Tigers on Tuesday. He's the first pitcher in Rangers history to have at least seven wins and no losses in his first nine starts of a season.

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Free Baseball System -1) It turns out in the article below; the Atlanta Braves also fit the same criteria.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This is a different number; Joe Blanton of the Phillies is 2-14 against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday in his career. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall nailed yesterday’s winner and comes back with the Cardinals to flip the Phillies.

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Opposites Attract for Monday Baseball Betting

The Detroit Tigers and the Philadelphia Phillies did not get off to the kind of starts they wanted to begin the second half of the season. The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals did just the opposite, racing out of the box. The American and National League teams will face off against each other tonight, each trying to extend or break the habits they began the final stage of the baseball season with.

Tigers offense needs bite

Detroit (48-42, +3.2) will attempt to take a similar path that Texas (53-39, +0.2) just completed and return to winning ways. The Rangers had lost four consecutive home games to last place Baltimore before the break and used that frustration to win a four-game series at Boston over the weekend. The Tigers will try to follow suit, after dropping four straight to cellar-dweller Cleveland.

“Shame on us,” Detroit manager Jim Leyland said. “This club appeared like it wasn’t ready to play this weekend and that’s the manager’s responsibility. That’s not the players. I’m shocked, really.”

The Tigers offense went flat, totaling eight runs against the 12th ranked team in the AL in runs allowed. Sluggers Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera were especially guilty, being five for 29 in the series. Detroit returns home where they are league-best 32-13 (+16.8) and 12-2 after scoring two runs or less two straight games since last year.

Texas was close to sweeping the Red Sox, with their only loss in extra innings Saturday and outscored Boston 21-11 in their four contests. The Rangers arrive in MoTown having won 12 of last 15 road games and will send Scott Feldman (5-8, 5.32 ERA) to the mound, whose been pounded for 14 runs (10 earned), 18 hits over two starts and six innings facing Tigers’ hitters.

Online sports betting outlets have Detroit as -120 money line favorites with total of 9.5 and they are 16-3 at home off a loss to a division rival as a favorite and 8-0 OVER, after scoring three runs or less, three battles in a row. Jeremy Bonderman (5-6, 4.79) takes the ball for the home team and Detroit is 6-1 as a home favorite when he starts.

For this 7:05 Eastern AL affair, Josh Hamilton will try to keep swinging a hot bat and win in Detroit for the first time in a dozen tries.

Redbirds are flying high

St. Louis (51-41, -5.5) was best described as being a mild underachiever in the NL the first half of the season, however they might be ready to take flight and command of the Central Division after drilling the Dodgers four straight and reclaiming first place. The Cardinals offense is scoring runs at a more familiar pace in winning five in a row (5.1 RPG). The last five runs were a confidence builder, touching home plate that many times in the eighth and ninth innings to overcome a 4-0 deficit to Los Angeles for a stirring come from behind triumph.

“The most significant thing is that we’re 10 games over .500,” Tony La Russa said.

The St. Louis starting pitchers and bullpen have been in harmony after their three day vacation and are 59-23 home games after permitting four runs or less five consecutive contests the last 13 years.

This ESPN Monday night matchup has a struggling Philadelphia club (48-43, -9.1) searching for answers. The Phillies lost three of four to the Cubs and realistically should have lost all four in the Windy City except for Carlos Marmol having wild streak that gift wrapped a four-run ninth inning rally Saturday.

“We haven’t hit for a long time,” Phils skipper Charlie Manuel told MLB.com. “We hit spurts where we come out of it. On a given night, we might score some runs, but it seems like we fall right back into it. Inconsistent play. It’s what we talk about every day.”

About the only good news for Philadelphia is 20-8 Monday record and starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick (5-3, 4.44) is 20-7 in a series opener with the help of teammates.

For those following sports betting lines, St. Louis is a -125 ML choice with Blake Hawksworth (3-5, 4.73) the announced hurler. Hawksworth has been forced into the rotation due to injuries, using deception material, relying heavily on the changeup. He’s been continually in trouble as opponents are batting .320 against him this season. He’ll have to be especially careful with St. Louis native Ryan Howard, who is batting .381 with seven homers and 29 RBIs in 17 career games in his home town.

The Cardinals are going after their six straight home win, which they haven’t accomplished since last August and are a mere 4-9 after a one run win in 2010. For whatever reason, the Philadelphia offense perks up with Kendrick on the mound (6.2 RPG) and this combination is 27-13 playing at night.

Betting Baseball Futures by the Numbers

The interpretation of how baseball was to be viewed differently came about with Bill James book “Baseball Abstract”. He and his fellow scribes developed an illuminating way to no longer take a batting and earned run averages at face value, rather look inside the numbers to understand what it really might mean. The term “sabermetric” became part of the language of baseball in the late 1980’s and still is widely renowned in today’s world.

This has lead to other methods of interpreting statistics, opening the door for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com to name a couple. This in-depth type of analysis of numbers has benefited fans and those who love to wager on baseball. For those seeking opportunity to place futures wagers on baseball, being able to see halfway thru the season eliminates some of the guess work that appeared cumbersome back in March.

Today you have a track record to follow and an inkling what might occur in the last 81 games of the baseball season. The oddsmakers do also, and a San Diego preseason wager of Over/Under 74 wins at Sportsbook.com looks safer today then it did before the season started. However, the corrective reading goggles of the halfway point of the season has the Padres as less favorable +110 choice to win the NL West compared back in March when they +600.

One element of James’ work that is as fresh today as it was when he first brought up new topics is the runs scored vs. runs allowed aspect of the game. If you score more runs than your opponent, you cannot lose. If you score a great deal more runs then the opposition, then you might have a dominate team. From the wagering standpoint, the value in this information is which teams are playing to their potential, which are playing above their potential and which are playing below. The last two elements are especially valuable, since if a team or teams continue on the same path, ultimately, they should reach their water mark and play accordingly.

Our goal in making long and short term wagers for baseball is to ensure equal representation of all teams. Since we have the time at the All-Star, we’ll look who at every Major League squad has played thru 81 games or half the schedule. This presents a balanced look at all the teams.

How this exercise works is to multiply the number of runs scored and square it, followed by doing the same with number of runs allowed. We’ll use the New York Yankees as the example.

Yankees runs scored – 436
Yankees runs allowed – 340

436 x 436 = 190096
340 x 340 = 115600

Add the two numbers together and divide the runs scored into the total to achieve a percentage.
190096 + 115600 = 305696
190096 divided by 305696 = .621

Take the number 81 (half the season) and multiply by .621, this gives you a total of 50.3. What this means is the Yankees should have a record of 50-31, based on runs scored and allowed and their actual record was exactly the same, thus right on schedule.

Any difference greater than three games means something is occurring that needs to be understood. Typically, bullpen production or lack of it is the biggest culprit in terms of wins and losses. Below is the complete list showing each team’s actual record and record based on RS/RA methodology and projected season total if they were to play exactly the same way.

American League (actual – projected- possible season record)

AL East
New York Yankees 50-31 - 50-31- 100-62
Boston 49-32 - 47-34 – 94-68
Tampa Bay 48-33 - 51-30 – 102-60
Toronto 41-40 - 44-37 – 82-80
Baltimore 25-56 – 25-56 – 50-112

AL Central
Detroit 45-36 – 41-40 – 82-80
Minnesota 44-37 - 46-35 – 92-70
Chicago WS 43-38 - 41-40 – 82-80
Kansas City 36-45 - 37-44 – 74-88
Cleveland 32-49 - 33-48 – 66-96

AL West
Texas 48-33 - 48-33 - 96-66
L.A. Angels 45-36 - 40-41 – 80-82
Oakland 40-41 - 40-41 – 80-82
Seattle 34-47 - 32-49 – 64-98

AL Observations – The biggest surprise out of the AL East is Tampa Bay projected to win its division. Though most sports books still taking action on division titles have the Rays as the third choice to win AL East, Tampa Bay brings plenty to the party. How they have managed to overachieve thus far is because they have the highest save percentage in the league and concede the lowest on-base percentage in the junior circuit (.305). Another reason Tampa Bay might be around longer than most expected is 25-10 record in games decided by four or more runs, showing their dominance.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen has saved them in the first half of the year, however their pitching as a whole might well send them plummeting in the second half of the season unless they swing a trade for another starter. The Chicago White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with an eight-game winning streak, but have to find a way to replace Jake Peavy who is gone for the year.

The Los Angeles Angels limp into the break having lost eight of last 10. Normally, if a team outperforms its RS/RA numbers, the bullpen is the reason. The overall season numbers for the Halos bullpen is meager, however during their hot June (19-10), the pen actually pitched well. Unless they pick up another bat for the lineup and the entire pitching staff improves, the Texas Rangers could well run away with this very weak division.

National League (actual – projected - possible season record)

NL East
Atlanta 48-33 - 48-33 – 96-66
N.Y. Mets 45-46 - 46-35 – 92-70
Philadelphia 43-38 - 46-35 – 92-70
Florida 38-43 - 43-38 – 86-76
Washington 35-46 -35-46 – 70-92

NL Central
Cincinnati 46-35 - 45-36 -90-72
St. Louis 44-37 - 47-34 -94-68
Milwaukee 37-44 -38-43 - 76-86
Chicago Cubs 35-46 -36-45 – 72-90
Houston 32-39 - 26-55 – 52-110
Pittsburgh 29-52 - 20-61 – 40-122

NL West
San Diego 48-33 - 47-34 – 94-68
L.A. Dodgers 45-36 - 43-38 – 86-76
Colorado 43-38 - 44-37 – 88-74
San Francisco 41-40 – 44-37 - 88-74
Arizona 32-49 – 32-49 – 64-98

NL Observations – The two-time defending NL champion Phillies have outperformed their record, thanks to their ability to rule the NL Central. Philadelphia is 17-8 and +39 in RS/RA against that division (+48 overall). With no Chase Utley likely until September, the Phillies might not have enough hitting or pitching to catch Atlanta. The Florida Marlins numbers suggest they should be better, which is why manager Fredi Gonzalez was shown the door. The Fish are tied for the most blown saves in the NL and their 11-17 record in one run games speaks volumes.

The NL Central appears to be a two team race the rest of the season and how they perform against the other four mediocre clubs should determine the Reds or Cardinals fate. If skipper Tony LaRussa can find ways to score more runs, St. Louis should win division based on numbers.

It’s interesting to note both Houston and Pittsburgh have out-performed (at least on some level) their actual RS/RA figures. Not sure what hiring former Astros star Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach is going to do for team that is 9-28 in games decided by four or more runs. Then there are the Pirates. Consider Pittsburgh has been outscored by 194 runs this season. To put that number into perspective, that is more than fellow last place teams Seattle and Arizona combined (-179 total). The Bucs are a walking play against run line team, losing by 2.2 runs per game and are 4-29 in contests determined by four runs or more.

San Diego is not a fluke, perfectly built for their vast acreage called Petco Park, with more than enough pitching to keep them competitive on the road. Will the lack of offensive production hold up, we’ll find out. Based on first half play, if one team in the NL West could improve, the San Francisco Giants should if they could squeeze more out of their batting order.

More Red Hot Winners at 3DW

Two more winners last night takes 3DW to 101-57, 63.9 percent, of our most recent plays. Though we have missed days here and there for plays, did you realize Ron has been doling out winners since June 13! That is by far the best streak we’ve ever had, considering one posted loss means “See Ya”. His top play is listed below for Free. Today’s Top Trend is a totals play and the Best System is light, but still very strong at 76.5 percent. Good Luck

What I thought and heard today – How weird life can be when you anticipate events to occur in a certain way and out of nowhere something completely different occurs. I know it’s a broad topic, but sometimes it’s just crazy.

Can you believe the line on Rangers/O’s game? It’s a terrible value even on the standard run line. You’d have to go to 2.5 run line just to have reasonable number for taking a loss and though Texas could win 10-3 easily, a tough number to beat, especially in July.

Just saw this on Twitter from former NBA player Toni Kukoc - What is the difference between LeBron and the planet Saturn, both are large, full of gas, but Saturn as least has rings. Not bad.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) This won’t be a qualifying play because it falls below 80 percent limit, however at least consider the Yankees as Play On team with a money line of -100 to -150, when team's hitters draw four walks or more game on the season, after allowing two runs or less in a trio of contests. This system checks in at 72-22.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tom Gorzelanny of the Chicago Cubs is 10-1 OVER in road games playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season during his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron had three more winners last night taking his record to 50-12 since June 9 (holy sh_t) in baseball. Tonight his favorite play is Houston to launch the Cardinals.

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Happy 4th of July!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A spirited 3-1 Saturday, raises our record to 94-54. We start today with Ron of the LCC just on fire and he offers his top selection for Free. The Top Trend is flat out perfect the Best System is amazing 48-8! Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.5 in units won at Cappers Monitor the last 10 days.

What I saw yesterday – The Arizona Diamondbacks put on as bad a performance as a team can, committing six errors, a franchise record. The final score was 14-1 Dodgers and it should have been worse except for two base-running blunders by L.A. that led to unnecessary outs.

Kirk Gibson was just in his second game as manager but he is finding things out quickly about his team and himself. His starting lineup featured more than half the team made up of backups. The logic was lost on me and everyone else.

The Snakes can never, I repeat never again start Rusty Ryal at first base, his footwork and lack of experience led to directly to one and possibly two of the errors (Adam LaRoche would have saved two errors for certain) the D-Backs had.

Part of being a manager is to understand circumstances. Yes, Gibson was just on his second day on the job, but he had to know or should at least checked that this moribund team was going to have a large crowd on hand. It’s the manager’s job to win games first, however with over 44,000 on hand to watch fireworks as much or if not more than then to watch the Arizona, this was a great opportunity to go all out to impress the fans that maybe they should come back and see another game, since this club has nothing but pride and paychecks to play for the rest of the way.

The only reason anyone who was in attendance would bother to come back in 2010 is to see another team.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Halos, with a team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, in the second half of the season. Hitting the way back machine to 1997, this system is 48-8, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trends -2) The Atlanta Braves are 9-0 vs. teams with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron continues to crush the books with a 31-9 record on the diamond and is riding the Redbirds to split series with Milwaukee.

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Baseball Systems that circle the bases

Winning at baseball betting comes in many shapes and sizes. One method to consider is baseball systems, since you don’t have a point spread involved and just have to win the game to win the money. For Thursday uncovered four strong MLB systems that could well provide delectable results.

Chicago Cubs at Seattle 3:40E

Two crummy teams presently headed in opposite directions are the Cubs and Mariners. Chicago (31-40) has dropped four of five to AL West teams and has fallen into third place tie with Milwaukee in the NL Central. Seattle (30-41) on the other hand has strung together six straight wins and moved to within 2.5 games of vacating the basement of their division.

The Mariners go after their longest win streak since they won eight straight from June 23-July 1, 2007, giving the ball to Felix Hernandez (5-5, 3.39 ERA), who is back to pitching like King Felix in his last couple of outings (17 2/3 innings, three runs allowed). Seattle is a -156 money line favorite and the M’s and Hernandez are 19-4 in June when he is the starter. You have to like the Mariners chances since home teams having won six or more consecutive contests in June are 112-44 the last 13 years including 7-1 this season.

Florida at Baltimore 7:05E

This isn’t exactly news like a United States general has been removed from his duty, as the Baltimore Orioles (19-52) pitching staff continues to give up hits at an alarming rate. O’s pitchers have been touched for 69 base hits in their last six outings, permitting 6.5 runs per game in losing five of six. The past three contests have been especially egregious, as 26 opposing runners have touched home plate.

It’s not like Baltimore has a tremendous offense to offset their pitching woes, ranked 12th in on-base percentage in the American League at .310, averaging a league low 3.3 RPG. Oddsmakers have this contest set for 9.5 total and in this spot look to go below the number as AL teams with on-base percentage .310 or worse on the season, having allowed seven runs or more three straight games are 38-12 UNDER.

St. Louis at Toronto 7:07E

The Blue Jays are like basketball team that lives and dies with the three-point shot. When it goes in the basket, the club looks awesome, when it does not, they definitely come up short. Toronto (38-34) leads all of baseball with 108 home runs; however they are dead last in the AL in batting average (.239) and on-base percentage (.307).

As good as the Jays starting pitching has been, St. Louis (40-31) is the type of team that can match or surpass Toronto’s pitchers and keep their bats under control like they have the first two games of the series. With the Blue Jays a +116 home underdog against Adam Wainwright (10-4, 2.23) and Redbirds, consider playing against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with below average AL hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games. The favorite in this situation is 97-28 since 1997.

Pittsburgh at Texas 8:05E

The Texas Rangers (43-38) are hotter than the midday Dallas summer sun with 10 consecutive victories. The same cannot be said about Pittsburgh (25-46), who has been a victim on the road 13 games in a row. The Texas bats are afire, scoring 6.4 RPG in this streak and will face ground-ball pitcher Jeff Karstens (2-2, 4.72).

Rangers’ hitters battered the first two Pirates pitchers for 13 runs last night, forcing them to use five relievers over the last eight innings. Karstens has to pinpoint the ball to be effective and only has walked 11 batters in seven starts; however he can’t overpower opponents either, as his total of 19 strikeouts proves.

The Rangers are a Texas-sized -250 ML favorite to sweep the series and underdogs of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings are dreadful 10-58.

All systems from the Foxsheets.

Major League Baseball Trendy Talk

It’s the final week of interleague play for this season and today four matchups in particular stand out on the baseball scorecard. We have a blend of hot pitchers, hot teams and a hot rivalry for this Tuesday.

St. Louis at Toronto 7:07 E

Call them what you will, lefties, port-siders or southpaws, whatever the name, Cardinals rookie lefty Jaime Garcia (6-3, 1.59 ERA) and the Blue Jays Brett Cecil (7-3, 3.58) have both been highly effective.

Garcia at 23 years old has overcome Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss all of 2009, yet he’s been incredibly effective, not conceding more than two earned runs in his 13 starts this season. A lack of run support has left Garcia and St. Louis (38-31, -6.4 units) at just 6-7 overall this season, totaling three or fewer runs in seven of his trips to the mound.

Cecil suffered his first loss in five weeks at San Diego, being pounded for five runs in six innings. Prior to that, the Toronto left-hander has given up six total runs in five outings. Cecil and the Jays are is 12-4 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

With the total at 7.5, Garcia and the Redbirds are 10-0 UNDER in night games and merely 20-26 in June games over the last two seasons. The free-swinging Blue Jays (38-32, +10.2) are 6-10 against lefty starters this season (2.9 runs per game), but 12-3 OVER vs. a very good bullpen like Cards whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.

San Diego at Tampa Bay 7:10 E

The Padres (40-29, +13.8) continue to be the biggest surprise in the National League, leading the NL West this far into the 2010 campaign, with exceptional pitching and timely hitting. San Diego leads the Major Leagues with 3.01 ERA and also in strikeouts (541). San Diego comes up big when it matters most, ranking 4th in ERA with runners in scoring position and 2nd overall with the same threat and there are two outs. The Friars have been at their best against quality competition with 14-4 mark playing against team with 54% to 62% win percentage this year.

Tampa Bay (42-27, +1.6) still have top notch record, but their 8-9 mark in June has dropped them out of first place in the AL East. Two reasons for this fall, the Rays starting pitchers have an ERA over 5.50 since the middle of May and players like B.J. Upton (.230 batting average) Carlos Pena (.200) are hurting their ability to score runs in the upper part of the batting order. The Rays are pedestrian 18-15 at Tropicana Field; however they are 36-12 in home games after scoring two runs or less.

Tampa Bay is smallish -132 ML home favorite largely because San Diego’s Mat Latos is 6-1 since May 7, with opposing hitters showing a sordid .197 batting average against the 6’6 right-hander.

The Pads are a pretty reliable 12-7 (+8.5 units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
Atlanta at Chicago White Sox 8:10 E

Two of the hottest teams in the big leagues collide this evening in Chi-Town. The Chicago White Sox (34-34, -2.7 units) are back to .500 having won six straight and 10 of 11 and are within shouting distance of Minnesota in the AL Central at 5.5 games back. The biggest reason for Chicago’s turnaround is their continued dominance of the National League, with a 10-2 record this season and 34-14 since 2008.

Atlanta (42-28, +11.1) has been no slouch, with five consecutive conquests and winners of eight of last 10. The Braves have also thrived in interleague action with 7-2 mark in 2010. The Atlanta offense has been working in harmony with its pitchers. Atlanta leads the NL in scoring at 5.1 runs per game and when they score five or more runs in a contest, they are perfect 31-0. (42-0 dating back to last season)

A great pitching matchup of two terrific young hurlers, featuring Tommy Hanson (7-3, 3.27) vs. John Danks (6-5, 3.18). Hanson and the Braves are -113 ML road favorites and are 16-3 in the first half of the year since he arrived last season. Danks has not received a great deal of run support this campaign, but is 7-3 when throwing on five days rest (Sox record) and the Pale Hose are 22-8 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 2008.

L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels 10:05 E

Another chapter unfolds in the Freeway series, which moves south to Orange Country and Anaheim. The Angels (39-33, +5.1) are the hotter team having won six of nine, yet have lost ground in the AL West, with the Rangers reeling off eight wins in a row. The Halos swept the Dodgers (38-31, -0.3 units) nine days ago and are 17-4 versus NL West opponents over the last two seasons.

The Dodgers are having their typical issues with the AL, sporting 2-7 record and they are 29th in interleague play the last four years at 21-37. They will lean on Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.97) to end four game losing streak. The club with the blue hats is 36-17 after a loss by two runs or less (2-0 at Boston) and Kershaw and teammates are 9-0 against a team with a winning record this season.

The Angels are +112 home pooches and are 16-8 at the Big A as underdogs of +100 or higher. Ervin Santana (6-5, 3.91) and Halos are 9-1 (+10.8 units) as an underdog of +100 to +150. Manager Mike Scioscia’s club has taken 16 of previous 23 meetings; however the road team has won five straight series.

Big League Trendy Talk

While your parents taught you gossip is unhealthy, it is a positive when breaking down baseball betting. For those that participate in sports betting, having knowledge that can give you the edge, well it’s invaluable. Review the best information anywhere on four meaningful baseball contests tonight.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05 E

Both these NL East clubs busted out scoring slumps last night as they totaled 18 runs on 26 hits, with Philadelphia (31-26, -5.4 units) winning 10-8. Because of tonight’s pitching matchup, they could both go right back into batting slumps. Roy Halladay (8-3, 2.03 ERA) goes for the Phillies and Josh Johnson (6-2, 2.10) for Florida (28-31, -5.5).

Sportsbooks have the Phillies as -160 money line home favorites and as good as Doc Halladay is, Johnson isn’t too shabby with the Marlins 41-18 when he starts and 13-5 when he is underdog of +150 or less. With the way the Phils have been hitting lately, Halladay probably feels like he’s back in Toronto and is 5-9 (-11.8 Units) against the ML after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

It’s not all doom and gloom for Philadelphia as they are 29-15 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better and the floundering Fish (four straight losses) are 1-11 versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower this season.

San Diego at N.Y. Mets 7:10 E

The Padres (34-24, +13.3) got a rare taste of their own medicine, falling 2-1 in extra innings to New York (31-27, +4.1). Even with last night’s defeat, San Diego is uncanny 9-3 when a total of four or less runs are scored this year. Mat Latos (5-4, 3.26) has the unfortunate luck of drawing another top line pitcher in tonight’s action. Latos has been matched against Halladay, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo and Jonathan Sanchez (three times) and has to look at Johan Santana (4-2, 2.76 ERA) this evening.

Santana has thrown 15 straight scoreless innings and has a 0.74 ERA over his last five starts and his teammates are thriving at Citi Field. The Mets are 23-9 at home and are riding their second nine-game winning streak in the Big Apple. New York is 7-0 at home after three or more consecutive wins this season and is a -150 ML favorite. Santana is his career is 104-33 as a favorite of -150 or more. (Team's Record) San Diego will attempt to counter and is 9-3 after four or more consecutive road games in 2010.

L.A. Angels at Oakland 10:05 E

Though it seldom gets much play nationally, the Angels (32-29, +2.2) and Athletics (31-29, +3.7) is one of the more heated division rivalries in baseball. The teams have split the first two of a four game series and Oakland will attempt to retake second place on the AL West behind Dallas Braden (4-5, 3.77), who hasn’t won since tossing a perfect game on Mother’s Day. Braden is 0-3 with a 4.45 ERA since May 9th; however oddsmakers still have the left-hander and the A’s as -128 favorites. Braden is 5-13 (-12.1 Units) against the ML as a home favorite of -110 or higher. (A's Record)

The Halos had their six-game winning stopped last night with 10-1 thumping and hand the ball to Joe Saunders (4-6, 4.78), who could be spokesperson for a yoyo company with his up and down performances. Saunders and the Angels are 13-4 in road tests vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs a game since 2008 and the port-sider is 10-4 vs. his rival. Even with last night’s loss, the Angels are 14-6 at McAfee Coliseum the past three seasons.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10 E

Manager Tony LaRussa tried to play the percentages, essentially giving away the first game of the series in Los Angeles with his pitching choices and coming back with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.05 ERA) the next two games. His plan was foiled as Hiroki Kuroda and two relievers combined for a six-hitter in the Dodgers 1-0 shutout victory. St. Louis (33-26, -5) hasn’t been great this year, however they have avoided long losing streaks, but our in danger of losing four in a row for the first time since June 5-9, 2009.

Having Wainwright to pitch will be a big plus, as he is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 30 innings over his last four overall outings and has a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers (35-24, +4.8). With the Cardinals a -105 betting option, they and Wainwright are 14-3 when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.

The Blue Crew is in the midst of its longest homestand of the year (13 games) and have won seven of first nine and they own the finest record in the big leagues since May 9 at 22-7. Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 3.06) toes the rubber for L.A., with his club 37-15 at Dodger Stadium with a money line of -100 to -150 since last year.

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June 8 Wagering Options

A good quick rebound of 2-1 takes 3DW to 72-37, 65.4 percent. We offer an 80 percent system in the Clearwater dome in Florida. In the great state of Texas, matching trends pop up with a certain pitcher of the Rangers. Finally, Sal is 12-3 in last 15 MLB plays and likes a Midwestern team on the Left Coast. Good Luck

What I thought today – Looking forward to watching Steve Strasburg pitch. Did you know the Nationals have never been above a -155 favorite since moving to D.C.?

For old time Cubs fans, Carlos Silva is 8-0 on the North Side, which is the best start for Chicago pitcher since Ken Holtzman in 1967.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Blue Jays, who bat .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.50 or less), hitting .200 or worse over their last three games. Looking back 13 years we find a 52-13 record.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Colby (Cheese) Lewis of Texas is 12-1 in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs game (Rangers record) and these same contests are also 12-1 OVER.

Free Baseball Pick -3) These plays have been little faulty the last few days and Sal has St. Louis with Chris Carpenter to down the Dodgers.

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Baseball Systems that round the bases

On this Tuesday in baseball, believe it or not there are other baseball games as or possibly even more important than Pittsburgh at Washington. While you can still buy a ticket to Roy Halladay’s perfect game in Florida (at full price no less, go Marlins), there are four baseball systems (plus a bonus play) in place tonight for the online sports betting fan which could add to cash to wagering account.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05E

Another lesser known rookie will be making his debut, as power hitter Mike Stanton will be in the Marlins batting order. The 20-year-old outfielder has been tearing it up Double-A Jacksonville (hitting .311 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs in 52 games) and his first big league at bat will be against Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.62 ERA) who has found a groove and is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six outings.

Philadelphia (30-26, -6.4 units) still isn’t hitting the baseball, averaging two runs per contest in last 13 outings, however their fielding has been impeccable, with no errors in last five games. The Phillies are -138 money line choice and favorites with a ML of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher whose given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings are 65-19 since 2006. (Note: The San Francisco Giants and Matt Cain also fit this system)

Toronto at Tampa Bay 7:10E

The Rays are seventh in the American League in home runs, but still manufacture runs well enough to be third in baseball at 5.2 per game. Tampa Bay (37-20, +6.5) won on Sunday 9-5 in Texas to salvage a .500 road trip and send Jeff Niemann (5-0, 2.79) up against Toronto’s (33-25, +12) power laden lineup.

The Blue Jays lead the Major’s in home runs yet only bat .245 as a team and Niemann and the Rays are 8-0 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Tampa Bay is a -195 ML pick and home favorites with a ML of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less dingers a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more, are 27-4 the previous three years.

Kansas City at Minnesota 8:10E

Zack Grienke (1-7, 3.60) might be feeling the pressure of late with the lack of run support and trying to be too perfect. Last year’s Cy Young award winner has a 7.04 ERA in last three starts, allowing 24 hits in 15 1/3 innings. He’s received the lowest run support in the American League at 2.64 per start.

“The last month I haven’t really been myself, I guess,” said Greinke. “Everything looks tougher, like the hitters look better and the strike zone looks smaller. It just seems tougher out there at the moment.”

The Kansas City hurler will take on a Minnesota team (33-24, +3.2) scrambling for bodies with a number of injuries and not hitting the ball. With oddsmakers setting the total Un8, the play is UNDER when a ice cold hitting team is batting .200 or worse over their last five games, against opponent with a frigid starting pitcher, whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. In the last 13 years this system is 67-28 below the number.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10E

The Cardinals offense could be a Dateline mystery on NBC, ranking a pedestrian 14th overall at 4.6 runs per game. Manager Tony LaRussa gave the appearance at least that last night’s game was not particularly important using two pitchers Blake Hawksworth and P.J. Walters, in a 12-4 loss to Los Angeles (34-24, +3.6).

Evidently, LaRussa is focusing on the last two games of the series and has Chris Carpenter (7-1, 2.76) on one extra day rest taking on Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda (5-4, 3.63). Carpenter is 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last 14 regular-season road starts; however has 5.21 ERA when pitching with five or more days rest.

Does it make it a wise to bet to back the underdog Dodgers at +115, since National League clubs scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a contest vs. a NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or less, after allowing 10 runs or more, are 19-49?

Hopefully more winners on the way

Let’s make today a good Saturday. We have nailed exactly 67 percent of our last 100 selections at the 3DW and let’s hunt down more winners. We’ll start with a MLB killer system that is 93.4. We have a different kind of trend; check it out, rather quirky and perfect. I’ve been going well lately, see my top play today. Good Luck

What I saw today – Justin Masterson won Friday to end his streak of winless starts at 17, which was the longest streak of winless starts in Indians history. The previous record, 15 starts, was set by Brent Strom in 1973 and tied by Rod Nichols from 1989 to 1991.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher (Jon Lester) whose WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Since 2006 this incredible system is 57-4, 93.4 percent. For good measure, Lester is 10-0 against the Birds.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Here is a bit of a changeup, but worth noting. Umpire Todd Tichenor is behind the plate tonight in St. Louis and home teams are 11-0, winning by 3.4 runs per game when he is calling balls and strikes this season. I’m just sayin’!

Free Baseball Pick -3) I’m 31-17, +11.04 units since May 20 and like the underdog Athletics this evening.

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Memorial Day Baseball Action

For many people today it is cookouts, time to spend with family and friends or watch a “Criminal Minds” marathon. While participating in these or other activities the baseball sports better still wants to get his fill of action, just with a little more urgency, with having other fun things to participate in.

Let’s not waste any more time and get to it for those that prefer online sports betting.

At 1:05 Eastern the two best teams in the NL East do battle, Philadelphia (28-21) at Atlanta (28-22). The Phillies have won 20 of last 26 Monday assignments and send Joe Blanton (1-5, 5.63 ERA) to the mound. Though everything counts, the Braves Tommy Hanson (4-3, 4.06) has 2.89 ERA this year if you subtract May 20 dud (eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings) against Cincinnati. Hanson and Atlanta are 7-2 at home facing teams with winning records; however the Phils have taken 15 of last 21 in Hotlanta.

At 1:35 Eastern on WGN the Chicago Cubs (24-27) begin a road trip in Pittsburgh (20-31). The Cubs begin their nine game excursion having a bad taste in the mouth courtesy of the Pirates, who have won five of six against Chicago in 2010 and are 7-1 dating back to last season. The Cubs have played down to or below their level of competition with 2-8 record against losing teams. Pittsburgh gladly returns home where they are 8-3 after road trip of a week or more. Seven of the previous 10 meetings have gone UNDER the total in the Steel City.

At 4:15 Eastern, the city with the Arch hosts the surprise team of the NL Central, Cincinnati (31-20). The Reds have played the fewest road games of any squad in the National League (21) and taken advantage of it with a sensational home record of 19-10. Cincy will be the first team to face St. Louis rookie Jaime Garcia (4-2, 1.14) a second time and is 8-3 against left-handed pitchers. The Reds are 7-1 when Bronson Arroyo (5-2, 4.30) pitches a series opener, yet are 2-6 if the right-hander faces a team above .500. The Cardinals (29-22) have relished playing the Reds at home, with 37-15 record and are perfect 12-0 on Monday’s.

At 7:07 Eastern, Tampa Bay (34-17) returns to the road with not only the best record in baseball, but with remarkable 19-5 mark as the visiting team. Matt Garza (5-3, 2.97) lacked his usually excellent fastball control in his last start, a loss to Boston and amazingly he and the Rays are 2-12 on the road against clubs like Toronto (30-22) with a positive record. At a sluggish start (6-10), the Blue Jays have won eight of nine at the Rogers Centre and are 10-1 seeing right handed hurlers in home whites. Watch the total of this matchup with these AL East teams a combined 7-3 UNDER north of the border and Garza 7-1 UNDER vs. Toronto.

On last thing, take a moment from sports betting to remember the real reason for Memorial Day, to honor those that have died serving our country to protect our freedom.

Tuesday's Top Material

Got beat up good on Monday, dropping us to 35-19. For Tuesday have a number of MLB systems to consider in below article. The Top Trend has bit of a different twist, thus checking lines will matter. Slick Rick likes a game on the Left Coast for Free Play. Good Luck

What I lamented today- What freakin’ world was I on yesterday to play Brewers with Doug Davis, one of my favorite play against pitchers. I fell for the Crew scoring all those runs in the desert, not wise.

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Free Baseball System -1) See MLB Plays below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) When the closing line is -228 to -232 and the total is 7.5, the favorite (St. Louis in this case) is 14-0 the past three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 6-1 the last two days and expects the Rays to shine over Halos.

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Tuesday's Top MLB Systems

On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options.

Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E

The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.

Toronto at Boston 7:10E

The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.

Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). The Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.

Houston at St. Louis 8:15E

The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.

Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.

Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E

For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.

Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.

Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E

The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.

Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER. All systems from the Foxsheets.

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The Sunday Card

Slipped up a bit with 1-2 day as Atlanta decided to attend, not play in Milwaukee. Still 10-3 and Steve goes after his fourth straight Free winner. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the Bay Area for baseball and the Best System is inspiring 89.1 percent. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- What a crazy day of wagering! Had Nationals as +161 dogs and they tied L.A. 3-3 in the seventh and had runners on base in innings 8-12, including on third base twice and never scored.

Had Seattle, who came back with two runs in the ninth to take 4-2 lead in the Windy City, only to give up three in the bottom of the ninth to lose.

Further west on Madison Street, the Blackhawks were all but done, down 4-3, having a player go into penalty box with 63 seconds left in the game and somehow scored a goal to tie with 13 seconds and won in overtime, giving me -260 winner somehow.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -200 or more like Tampa Bay with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing. Awesome system comes in at 89.1 percent, 49-6 the last 13 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cleveland’s Justin Masterson is 0-10 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Tribe’s Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection says the Cardinals are the play today.

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Saturday Special's

The last three posts we are 9-1, let’s line them up for Saturday and see how we do. We have NBA system in Brew Town today at 30-6 ATS. Top Trend flat dead perfect and Steve of the LCC goes after yet another MLB Free winner. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Everyone assumed the NFL teams know what they are doing when it comes to drafting, they don’t. Plenty of teams make lots of mistakes. Jacksonville’s first pick was a reach and many others were questionable.

Personally I hope Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow go on to have long NFL careers, proving all the nay-sayers wrong.

Baltimore picking Mount (blob) Cody could turn out to be a steal. He fits their defense and if he decides to mature and drop 50 lbs., could be play-yer.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against teams like the Bucks when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team, 43.5-45.5 percent allowed, against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games permitting a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis is 11-0 in road night games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection sees Tampa Bay bouncing back from upset loss.

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Tuesday's Tops

Went down with 1-2 day with the Giants losing in extra innings. The Best System is on the diamond at 36-7 and Free Play is also in baseball, seeking an elusive winner. The Top Trend is on the frozen pond and involves a total. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Though I didn’t trust the situation, I was impressed with Utah last night winning at Denver. Guts and determination.

My math MLB underdogs are 12-6 the last four days (why am I not playing these more?) and today I have Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, St. Louis and San Diego.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against AL road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Cleveland, with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less) against a team with a good bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or less, with a crummy bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. This system is winner, winner chicken dinner at 36-7, 83.7 percent the last five years.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Phoenix Coyotes are 16-3 UNDER after a win by two goals or more this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) I told Steve of the LCC we need a winner in this slot and he tells me Colorado Rockies will be the one.

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The baseball train keeps chuggin'

The schedule might appear lighter in baseball action with just eight games on the board; however that doesn’t mean opportunity doesn’t exist. We went thru and isolated four specific MLB systems that are thought provoking and should have a well above average chance of being profitable to start another week of baseball betting. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

St. Louis at Arizona 9:40E

The Cardinals are already in first place in the NL Central, where they are expected to end up at the end of the season. You can’t blame St. Louis if they a trifle fatigued off 20-inning game Saturday and a tense come from behind effort 5-3 win over the New York Mets last evening.

St. Louis has left 32 men on base the last two contests (22 in the marathon) and are a -129 money line favorite in the desert against angry Arizona club that was swept by San Diego and has lost four in a row.

Here we look to Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, in the first half of the season. These teams are unsightly 12-33, 27.7 percent.

San Francisco at San Diego 10:05E

Even after losing series to the Dodgers, San Francisco maintained lead in the NL West with 8-4 record. The Giants continue their road trip further south down the California coast to San Diego.

The oddsmaker looked at the Matt Cain vs Clayton Richard matchup and studied two good bullpens and hung out an Un7 on this confrontation. With this setup, we found a 52-19 system that suggests to Play Over on road teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, after a loss, on a club with a winning percentage of 62% or better on the season.

Detroit at L.A. Angels 10:05E

Last week was not a good for Detroit, dropping two series and losing four of six games. Like many teams this time of year, the Tigers are attempting to put together a consistent bullpen and though the ERA of 3.21 appears more than adequate, too many runners are scoring in hold situations and they have surrendered 64 hits and walks (44-H, 20-W) in 42 innings, for WHIP of 1.524.

In the last three seasons, road clubs with bullpen WHIP between 1.450 to 1.550 on the year, who are a good fielding team, turning 1.1 or more double plays per game are 33-74.

Baltimore at Seattle 10:10E

There had to be a general sense of relief in Baltimore dugout as they ended their nine-game losing streak in being victorious for the just the second time this season yesterday in 8-3 triumph over Oakland.

Even with the offensive outburst, the Orioles are batting puny .234 as a team, with on-base percentage of .292, while scoring 3.2 runs per game.

Seattle’s return to the state of Washington has boosted their play, with two series victories. The pitching has been the difference and the bullpen has sharp with 3.29 ERA on the year (1.17 ERA at Safeco Park). The Mariners are a -148 money line favorite with total Ov8. Keep in mind, American League teams hitting less than .260, facing a bullpen with ERA under 3.33, on Monday’s, are 39-14 UNDER the last 13 years.