Cavs and Suns look to do their thang on Mother's Day

Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.

Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC

At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.

“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.

The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.

“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”

Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.

Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.

Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT

It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.

Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.

The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.

San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked.
In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.

On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.

"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.

The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.

Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.

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NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Spurs must control tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.
Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.

That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

Spurs vs Suns Series Preview

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about each other. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been Avis to the Spurs Hertz, with Phoenix having been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war.

(3)Phoenix vs (7) San Antonio

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.
The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.
Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

3Daily Winners Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

Dallas and Portland looking to survive

The Mavericks and Trailblazers enter their respective contests Thursday with a singular thought, force a Game 7. Dallas passed their first test, routing San Antonio at home, now they will have to elevate their game to stave off elimination as the No. 2 seed in the West. Portland suffered their third “Whose your daddy” pasting by Phoenix Monday night and will try and extend series by eclipsing the Suns by playing at slower pace.

Coaching could be the key

Forget the players from Dallas and San Antonio for a second and think about the two coaches. No coach is going to win unless he has the players, however when the talent is fairly equally distributed, the ability to make adjustments is tantamount.

Rick Carlisle is a good NBA coached, seemingly well-liked and has never won a thing. Greg Popovich is abrasive, a smart-aleck at times and has won four NBA championships.

While this might not be Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley in the 2006 NBA Finals in terms of mismatches it certainly in the neighborhood. More like Ted Danson as Sam Malone (great in Cheers) against his John “Becker” character (good, not great).

Carlisle and his staff deserve props for making adjustments and better utilizing the talent owner Mark Cuban traded for. Brendan Haywood was inserted into the starting lineup Tuesday evening and the offense frequently went thru him and having played with Caron Butler in Washington, the two clicked as Butler scored a career playoff-high of 35 points in 103-81 blowout.

“That was fun,” Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki said and his team is 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season.

Coach Popovich was displeased with what he saw from his squad and said so, “Mostly it was the case of they came with the mental and physical toughness, and our starting group wasn’t very good in either category”

San Antonio is 16-5 ATS at home after a loss by 20 points and Popovich must first get his team back in the proper frame of mind and do a better job in going from the defensive to offensive end, moving the ball up the floor quicker before the bigger Dallas team can be more physical and stunt their flow.

The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites with total of 191 at Bookmaker.com and they are on 9-2-1 ATS rollout and are 22-9 UNDER after four or more consecutive Under’s, which has been the case lately in this series. Dallas will attempt to counter being 4-0-1 ATS after double digit victory and the Mavs are 17-5 UNDER in road games having lost two of their last three.

Maybe the Spurs just had better players, but since Tim Duncan arrived in San Antonio, he and Popovich are 5-0 in seven-game series after building 3-1 lead. This isn’t Carlisle fault, but Dallas has never rallied down 3-1 in a series.

It’s about wins not point differential

Fifty years ago this fall, the New York Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates by 28 runs in the World Series and lost in seven games. Portland coach Nate McMillian might be wise to remind his team that history can be repeated, just on the hardwood instead of grass.

The Trailblazers has been blitzed three times by 29, 19 and 19 points, the latter two could have been much worse. Their triumphs have been by five and nine points respectively. “This series is crazy," Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge said. "We win; they win by 30."

Portland will try to force a seventh game playing at the Rose Garden and they are 13-3 ATS having lost three of their last four contests. "We'll be fine," point guard Andre Miller said after Monday's spanking. "We just have to think about one game. It's time to go home and take care of business."

The Phoenix demolition was capped by its reserves, which outscored the Blazers bench 55-23, led by Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. The duo had been mostly ineffective in this series, but they tallied 39 points between them (Frye-20, Dudley-19) in leading the onslaught.

“When they get going like that, we’re a really good team,” the Suns’ Steve Nash said. “I think it’s great for their confidence because we have a lot of confidence in them.” Phoenix raised their record to 28-13 ATS against defensive teams that allow 46 percent or higher shooting percentage.

The Suns are catching one point and are 7-3-1 ATS as Pick or road underdog since Jan. 31. This 3 vs. 6 matchup has seen the number fall below the total three times in a row and Portland is 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this year.

With the total at 201.5, Phoenix is 8-2-1 UNDER after a 10 or more point conquest and the Trailblazers are 7-0-1 UNDER after losing by double digits.

TNT has both battles with the first game at 8:00 Eastern.

Coaching matters during NBA Playoffs

For a lot of people, even sports bettors, they believe the NBA is a highly paid pickup game (read any number of forums), lacking the understanding of what goes into being a professional basketball coach. This is particularly true this time of year when coaches can pour all their energy into one opponent and have more time between games to assess each situation. Here is a look at what coaching has meant in three Sunday series.

Cleveland at Chicago 3:35E ABC

One of unappreciated aspects of professional basketball is coaching and game study. The head coach and assistants break down tape after each contest trying to find ways to improve or take advantage of defensive weakness.

In the NBA, Cleveland is well known for locking down opponents in halfcourt sets. Chicago coach Vinny Del Negro decided to push the ball up the floor on rebounds and made baskets for Game 3, freeing up shooters before the Cavaliers defense was in place. By getting into offense sooner, this allowed cleaner looks for Bulls players and only a Cavs three-point barrage and Chicago’s missed free throws late in the game made the contest interesting.

Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog and is 19-10 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread and needs Kirk Henrich as three-point scorer in the offense. His long range bombs open up the middle for Joakim Noah and Luol Deng to operate.

Del Negro’s other decision was to man-up LeBron James with different defenders and let him get as much as he could earn, without the other players leaving their men for open three-point attempts. This is something James loves to do, have opposing players draw to him like magnet and he skillfully finds open three-point shooter. Chicago stuck with their plan and moved to 5-2 SU and ATS at the “Madness on Madison” location against Cleveland.

It’s now coach Mike Brown’s time to make adjustments and see if he can send the Bulls to 8-21 ATS at home after covering two or more contests.

Dallas at San Antonio 7:05E TNT

They don’t have a NHL team in San Antonio, but Manu Ginobili showed the toughness of hockey player, coming back from broken nose to help the Spurs win 94-90 as 3.5-point favorites. Ginobili’s warrior attitude was on display scoring 11 of his 15 points in the fourth quarter.

The other parts of San Antonio’s three amigos, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, scored 48 points in the victory. Duncan turns 34 years old today and has a trio of games over 20 points and Parker appears to be relishing coming off the bench just like Ginobili used to do. The Spurs have covered eight of last 10 as home favorites.

Dirk Nowitzki overcame coach Greg Popovich’s move of limiting his looks after Dirk’s screens on and off the ball. In Game 2, the Spurs doubled on-ball screens and sent another defender at Nowitzki when he tried to pick and pop. Nowitzki thwarted that strategy as Dallas offense featured more isolation action and used his patented jab-step to total 35 points on 13-23 shooting.

The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS with a day between games and coach Rick Carlisle has explaining to do for benching Caron Butler in the second half. He said J.J. Barea gave them more penetration against San Antonio, (Barea did key a 17-0 run in the third quarter) however he could not replace the 19.5 points Butler has averaged in first two games. Butler had grand total of two points Friday night.

“Coach just goes with whoever is working that night and we went with a three-guard lineup,” Nowitzki said. “It was working for a while but we didn’t seem to have enough down the stretch.”

Ginobili is expected to play and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Spurs as 2.5-point favorites, with total of 193. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite and Dallas is 10-4 ATS as postseason underdog of 4.5 or less and 12-4 OVER as playoff pooch. The home team is on 7-3-1 ATS move.

Denver at Utah 9:35E TNT

The Nuggets defense continues to be a non-factor and it is evident this team is adrift. Despite being severely short-handed, Utah has averaged over 110 points per game in this series, shooting over 50 percent.

Utah’s motion offense usually sets up a number of good looks at the bucket, however coach Jerry Sloan has noticed how slow and lazy (no other way to describe it) Denver has been on weakside defensive rotations, allowing the Jazz to run what appears to be a layup drill at times.
Utah is 21-10-2 ATS against team that permitted 100 or more points in last outing and Deron Williams is acting like its Thanksgiving, carving up Denver’s defense. Utah finished with 27 assists and just nine turnovers.

The Nuggets lack of urgency is unsettling and speaks volumes what George Karl means to this team. The Jazz are the hungrier team and Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine road excursions.

Utah is a two-point pick and is 19-6-1 ATS when favored team by 4.5 or less and is 6-0-1 UNDER off outright win. Denver will attempt to even the series and is 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more. They are 6-2 UNDER in last eight visits to Salt Lake City.

Give me your old and feeble Friday night in NBA

The Boston Celtics looked like a bunch of old geezers the latter part of the schedule, but have found playoff basketball the perfect tonic for what ailed them. San Antonio is elderly at certain positions and too small to match up with Dallas, yet they return home 1-1. The Utah team bus can officially use their handicap sticker for parking with all their injuries, yet they could go up in the series over Denver with a win tonight.

Boston at Miami 7:00E ESPN

The Heat were a popular wager twice in Boston and they came up short both times as the Celtics went back to what they do best, play defense and take good shots. Playoff basketball can do that for team, the daily grind of the regular season is replaced by focusing on the strengths and weakness of just one foe, creating a singular mindset.

Boston is 13-1 and 10-4 ATS against Miami in just over three seasons of playing the Heat. This provides a certain comfort level not easily achieved, even performing on the postseason road.
“We’re figuring their backs are against the wall and they’re thinking that if they don’t get Game 3 then this is pretty much over,” Kevin Garnett said. “I know that’s what I would be thinking so we’re going to have to be ready for that.” Garnett’s team is 19-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.

Miami is 7-23 ATS at home after playing consecutive road games yet is not showing panic outwardly. “Minor adjustments, of course, but energy, effort, mental, things like that. Those are the things we’ve been so good at so far this year,” Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. “We’ve got to get back to that.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston catching four points, with total of 182 and they are 22-11 ATS as visitors when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons. The C’s are 10-2 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this year. The Heat will attempt to get off the canvas and are 28-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, coupled with 9-0 OVER mark off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points.

Dallas at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

Tim Duncan, he of the aching knees, having lost a step of quickness and having hops like teammate Matt Bonner (ouch), yet is masquerading as the player he was 10 years ago, averaging 26 points and 12.5 rebounds against Dallas.

The Duncan drop-step is back and the lack of quicks has been replaced with smarter positioning to release shots faster before opponent can gather itself.

“For two or three weeks there toward the end of the season, I was starting to wear down a little bit,” Duncan stated. Off the 102-88 thumping, the Spurs are 10-3-1 ATS after breaking the century mark in points.

The Mavericks have looked a little too dependent on offense from Dirk Nowitzki thus far in the series, benefitting from his near perfect 36-point performance in Game 1 and sagging noticeably when he was 9-24 from the field, totaling up 24 points Wednesday night.
Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and needs production in the paint from their centers. In the opener Erick Dampier and Brandon Heywood totaled 15 points, in Game 2, a meaningless two points.

The Spurs are 3.5-point pick at the AT&T Center where they have covered seven of previous nine. Dallas is spirited 26-15 ATS on the road and 13-3 UNDER revenging a home loss.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

If the shoulders of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer look a little bigger, it’s for good reason; they are forced to carry the load for Utah. Williams had 33 points and 14 assists in 114-111 upset in Denver and Boozer added 20 points and 15 rebounds as the injury-riddled Jazz tied the series.

“D-Will and Booze, they had their way,” said Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups noted after the contest.

The action moves to Salt Lake City were the Jazz are 32-9 and 26-13-2 ATS, winning by 9.5 points per game. That places the onus on Denver and they are 29-12 ATS after consecutive tilts as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

“We missed some easy shots, some lay-ups and we kind of felt it at the end. But we know what we have to do. We’ll get one over there. It’s playoff basketball.” Johan Petro said.

Denver will have turn up defensive intensity, since it has been on low wattage, with Utah shooting 54.7 and 52.9 percent in initial two contests of the first round. It will be up to interim coach Adrian Dantley to convince his players to work as harder on the other end of the floor and they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.

The Jazz are a two-point pick before what should be a roaring crowd and Utah is 8-1 ATS after two straight as an underdog this season. With the way this series is being played the listed total of 216 seems like forgone conclusion, however the Nuggets are is 8-0 UNDER away from home after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight skirmishes and coach Jerry Sloan’s club is 15-4 UNDER in home whites after scoring 110 points or more.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.

NBA Western Conference Series Outlook

In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

3DW Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

3DW Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

(4) Denver vs (5) Utah

It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)

The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah’s.

The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer’s fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan’s motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.

Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.

Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)

Last day of NBA regular season stuffed with intrigue

It’s the final day of the NBA regular season and rarely have so many questions been left up in the air to be determined. The specific fate of no less than nine teams has to be figured out before the playoffs begin, with eight of them moving on. Here is one-by-one game outlook at the various possibilities sports bettors have to consider.

New York at Toronto 8:00E MSG

Toronto ( 39-42) came with clutch effort at Detroit and needs to defeat New York at home and hope Chicago fails on the road to ensure third invitation to the playoffs in four years. The Raptors are fighting for bid without its best player Chris Bosh and are eight-point favorites according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Though Toronto needs the win, they are far from a safe bet with 4-12 ATS record at home in the second half of the season.

Chicago at Charlotte 8:00E

While V.P. of basketball operations John Paxson and coach Vinny Del Negro decide whether to use eight ounce or 16 ounce gloves in their rematch, the Chicago Bulls players have to win to get in the Eastern Conference postseason party. Bulls’ players have battled like Chicago management, winning nine of last 14 to be in this position and can close the deal with a victory. The Bulls (40-41) are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team like Charlotte (win percentage of 51% to 60%) this season. The Bobcats are already locked in to playing Orlando starting this weekend, but coach Larry Brown has vowed not to sit players because it wouldn’t be right and what the much-traveled Mr. Brown says can always be trusted (?).

Milwaukee at Boston 8:00E

The Bucks have found out about life without center Andrew Bogut the last two games and it is not pretty. Milwaukee has been easily defeated by Atlanta and Boston on their home floor and it doesn’t appear to be a coincidence the Bucks have shot under 40 percent in three of five games since the Aussie went on the injured list. Milwaukee can move up to fifth position with win over Celtics and Miami loss, but that would mean four more games with Boston. For tonight, the Bucks are 19-7 following a SU loss and are one-point underdogs.

New Jersey at Miami 8:00E YES

The Heat have been en fuego, winners of 11 of last 12 (7-4-1 ATS) and can wrap the No. 5 slot in the East with a triumph over non-combative New Jersey. Miami has made their own way since on March 1 they were in ninth place in the East, but 17-4 record has them poised to face bumbling Boston this upcoming weekend with a win, for club brimming with confidence. Miami is favored by 10 and is 8-2 ATS against opponent that surrendered 100 or more points in previous outing.

San Antonio at Dallas 8:00E

The Mavericks have won the Southwest Division and have one more bit of business left to complete. If Dallas is victorious over San Antonio, they capture the second seed in the West. A loss and Utah win drops them to third, which doesn’t sound like much, unless they would have to face the Jazz later in the playoffs. A Spurs loss would have them settle into seventh slot, which would place them right back in Dallas this weekend for first round of the postseason. The Spurs can avoid such a matchup with win and Portland loss, moving them to No. 6. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in last 14 outings and are 7.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix at Utah 10:30E ESPN

This is the lone straight forward conflict that will have both teams deciding fate in head to head battle. This contest is particularly important to Utah, since a victory means they win Northwest Division title, have third seed (at least) and open up at EnergySolutions Arena, where they are 32-8 and 26-12-2 ATS and domineering 20-2 (14-6-2 ATS) since Jan.6. A loss gives idle Denver the division crown and the Jazz fall to fifth place in the conference, which eliminates home court advantage. The Suns are blazing on 12-2 run (9-4-1 ATS) and locked up home court for first round with demolition of Denver last night. A win gives them third overall and means they wouldn’t face the Lakers until the conference finals should both teams advance that far. Almost forgot, a Utah win and Dallas loss has the Jazz really ending on a high note, moving to second seed with tiebreaker in their favor.

Golden State at Portland 10:30E

The Trail Blazers control their fate with a win over Golden State, wrapping up the sixth seed. That would be terrific, but Portland has potentially more pressing problems with guard Brandon Roy suffering torn meniscus in his knee, making his availability an issue going forward. Portland is a nine-point favorite with total of 215. The higher total should work to Blazers advantage as they are 17-6 ATS when they score 105 or more points this season. An upset loss to the Warriors and Spurs win drops Portland down a notch to seventh.

NBA Monday means all systems ready to fire

It’s the final three days of the regular season in the NBA, which also means it is the last Monday of taking a look at some of the best systems in professional basketball to get the week started. In this last installment, we find five contests that could provide winning systems for the sports bettor to profit from to begin another work week. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Miami (-4, 193) at Philadelphia

It’s been a miserable year for the 76ers at 27-53 and they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league at 12-28 and 11-27-2 ATS. Philadelphia is coming off one of its finest offensive performances of the season, scoring 120 points in rout of Memphis, shooting 57 percent from the field. When there is a contest involving two average three point shooting teams (33-36.5 percent) after 42 or games in the season and the home team made 55 percent or more of their shots with the total between 190 and 199.5 points, the UNDER is 33-11.

Orlando (-3.5, 210) at Indiana

There could well be hope next season for the Pacers if the close of this year is any indication of what the future holds. Indiana has won four in a row and 10 of 12 (8-3-1 ATS), shooting the ball with great proficiency at over 47 percent in eight of those games. The Pacers could be a play again since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, in a matchup involving two defensive teams holding opponents to 43.5 to 45.5 shooting percentage, who commit 14.5 or less turnovers, facing a poor pressure defense (14.5 or fewer turnovers forced), after 42 or more games, they are 40-13 ATS, 75.5 percent the last 14 seasons.

Minnesota (+14, 205.5) at San Antonio

The Spurs have endured a ruthless April schedule, with this being their seventh contest is 11 days and fifth in the last week. San Antonio has made the playoffs with their 49-31 record and would like to get out of eighth slot in the Western Conference; however the Timberwolves might not bring out the best of what the Spurs have to offer. Look to wager against home favorites with win percentage between 60-75 percent playing their fifth game in seven days, facing a team with a losing record. In the previous three seasons, the home chalk is prosaic 5-22 ATS.

Houston (+2.5, 210) at Sacramento

The Kings have lost 14 of the last 18 encounters, which includes 126-108 beat-down by Dallas on Saturday night. When the line is +3 to -3 in April matchups and the home team is off one or more defeats, they are unsightly 41-75 ATS.

Dallas (-11, 198) at L.A. Clippers

It’s been another fruitless campaign for the Clippers with 28-52 record. They are 28th in the NBA in point differential (-6.4), but at least are off a 107-104 triumph over equally inept Golden State. Here we find it is best to play against home teams being outscored by their opponents by six or more points a game, after a close win by three digits or less. Since 1996, this system is tasty 58-20 ATS.

Betting Beliefs – Always or Never

The NBA and NHL seasons are rapidly coming to a close and Major League Baseball is heading into its first full weekend. Here are some hard, fast betting rules to live by. You are not going to win every time, but your bankroll with be much thicker or have larger figures than if you decided to go the other way.

ALWAYS bet against “turrible” NBA teams late in the season

Charles Barkley may have different ways of utilizing words in the English language, but Sir Charles knows a “turrible” team when he sees one. Bettors looked at the New Jersey Nets recently after they overcame the dubious NBA record for losses and even covered six games in a row. More than one bettor has been sent down the wrong path betting a team with 11 wins and being outscored by 9.3 points per game.

If it looks like dog poop, smells like dog poop, it probably is dog poop. Don’t forget to add Detroit, Minnesota and the Clippers to this list, since most of the players and coaches have already prepaid their airline luggage charges for out of town on the day the regular season ends.

ALWAYS bet on NBA teams that are streaking and playoff bound

If teams are playing solid basketball, winning and moving up the standings plus covering spreads, it makes sense to at the very least consider them on game by game basis.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS since March 1. During that same time span it’s been the flight of the Phoenix in the desert, with the Suns 14-3, 10-6-1 ATS.

So much for injuries, age and nasty schedule supposedly to derail San Antonio. The Spurs are 15-5 and 14-6 ATS; with Tony Parker missing 75 percent of these games and Tim Duncan getting days off to rest weary knees. Follow the words of Grammy award winner Jerry Reed from his early 70’s hit “When you’re, you’re hot”.

NEVER bet out of boredom

If you have been betting college and professional basketball on a daily basis since early November, looking at a skimpy NBA schedule leaves much to be desired if you do not wager on baseball or want to survey the landscape first. I’ve received a couple of email from guys, “Who do you like in the NHL tonight?” or “Got any hot ones in hockey?”

If you haven’t been following hockey all season, now is not the time to start. Though every game looks like a 50-50 proposition, rest assured you are much more likely to lose than to win just guessing. Advice- play the lottery, payouts are larger, if not your odds.

ALWAYS bet underdogs in NHL series wagering

The first round of the Stanley Cup rivals anything NCAA men’s basketball tournament has to offer. In the past four years, over 37 percent of the lower seeds (12 of 32) have advanced to the conference semi-finals. In addition, three other series went the full seven games, which could have provided even more fuel to this argument. Look for hot goaltender and teams with two or three snipers as underdog wagers.

NEVER bet on -151 or more early April favorites in baseball

The baseball in April is a real crapshoot as unsuspecting teams get off to fast starts and perennial powers haven’t put everything together yet. On April 25 last season, here are the records of various MLB teams.

Toronto 13-6
Seattle 12-6
N.Y. Yankees 9-8
L.A. Angels 6-11
Florida 11-6
Philadelphia 8-8
Colorado 5-11

Last season was fairly typical of what occurs. Favorites of -151 or higher were 33-21 (61.1 percent), but were -2.84 units overall the first two weeks of the season.

NEVER bet on “up and comers” early without pedigree

This is tried and true formula in any sport. Ole Miss (8-4, 6-5 ATS regular season) and California (8-5, 6-7 ATS) were ranked in the Top 15 in preseason polls in college football last season, Georgia Tech (No. 17 in preseason polls) in college hoops this past campaign and what about Miami (7-9 8-8 ATS) and Houston (9-7, 7-8-1 ATS) in the NFL listed as likely playoff teams.

Typically a team needs to prove themselves or they come out of nowhere to be a surprise squad is how it usually happens.

Be careful with the Seattle Mariners and even the San Francisco Giants, until they show they can win consistently to be counted as “play on” teams.

NEVER bet against Pamela Anderson

Though the blonde bombshell is adding up in years and might be 20-1 to win Dancing with the Stars, she always finds a way to get herself in the news or on TV.

Rising Suns in burning hot system

In the West Conference of the NBA, a ten-game winning streak for a good team doesn’t mean as much as it used to. On Mar. 13, the Phoenix Suns (50-27, 43-32-2 ATS) at stood at 40-26, sixth place in the West.

The Suns would embark on 10 consecutive wins, the last four all on the road. Their last contest was away from home at Milwaukee and coach Alvin Gentry prophetically told the local television announcers before the game which they shared with Suns viewers during the broadcast, “We (the Suns) might be in for a stinker”.

Gentry was correct, as his squad was playing fourth road game in five days and they trailed the Bucks by 24 points at halftime before making it a respectable 107-98 final as 2.5-point underdogs.

That 10-1 streak (7-3-1 ATS) is your classic half full-half empty argument.

Phoenix moved is virtual four-way tie for second place in the West with Utah, Dallas and Denver, making the glass half full. However, the reality is they are in fourth place according to the tie-breakers and could conceivably fall to seventh place if they were to lose their next two games and the trailing teams won both of theirs. (This information makes the glass half empty)

There is a real possibility Phoenix could lose two in a row even with three full days of rest with tonight’s opponent San Antonio (48-29, 41-35-1 ATS), which is on ESPN at 7:30 Pacific.
The Spurs have won four straight (all covers) by an average of 14.2 points a game and six of seven overall, with their 95-86 win at Sacramento last night.

Tony Parker returned last evening after missing 16 games, but it has been the play of Manu Ginobili in particular why San Antonio is 16-5 in previous 21 games. “I’m feeling really confident right now,” said Ginobili, whose averaging 24.9 points in his last 16 outings.

The Spurs are a real nemesis of Phoenix, having eclipsed the Suns from the playoffs in 2003, 2005, 2007-08 and won four of last five meetings (3-2 ATS).

The Spurs create matchup problems for Phoenix, who again lead the NBA in scoring at 110.4 PPG, by slowing the Suns down on offense and taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com are not so sure San Antonio can overcome Gentry’s team again, installing them as seven-point road underdogs and facing a potent super situation.

Play On explosive offensive teams, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

When this state of affairs arises, the high scoring team off the crummy performance is 35-11 ATS, 76.1 percent the previous five seasons.

With the Spurs 3-14 ATS after four or more consecutive wins and Phoenix 10-2 ATS playing against a good team with a 60-70 win percentage this season, the odds stack up in their favor.

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

Easter Bunny brings it for Easter Sunday in NBA

Four teams very familiar with one another are set to face off against each other in NBA action this Easter Sunday. Cleveland has all but wrapped up the league’s best record and wants to continue playing well headed into the playoffs. They will face Boston who is search of finding their way. Immediately following, the surging San Antonio Spurs try to lasso the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center. Enjoy the Easter ham, enjoy the games.

Cleveland at Boston 1:00E ABC

The Atlantic Division champion Boston Celtics (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS) close out a six-game homestand which has been dismal to say the least. Having won nine of 13 games coming off a three game road trip, Boston started an extended stay at home dumping Denver by 14 points and secured a non-cover win over Sacramento by eight as 11-point favorites.

Last Sunday the Celtics were in position to prove they had gotten over three month slide of being incredibly ordinary, facing a hot San Antonio team and they were vanquished 94-73 by the Spurs. That loss must have left an emotional scar or Boston really isn’t anything but average, losing games to Oklahoma City and Houston on their own floor since, which left their coach to say this after Rockets defeat.

"There are so many things I could point out, but I won't," Doc Rivers said. "We played like a high school team at times, as far as the way our thought process was."

The C’s are just 23-15 at home, with a pediculous spread record of 11-26-1 ATS. Chances are this is not their last home loss.

In comes Cleveland with the best record in the NBA at 60-16 (37-37-2 ATS), having won 17 of 19 (10-8-1 ATS) since Feb. 21 and in high gear heading towards the playoffs. The Cavaliers almost traded J.J. Hickson to Phoenix and right now they are thrilled they did not. Coach Mike Brown is defensive-minded and gets wacky when his team doesn’t perform on that end of the floor.

Lately, he has used Hickson as defensive stopper late in games and he has come through, grabbing career-high 16 rebounds on Friday in the Cavaliers win over Atlanta and working a trap with Jamario Moon on Milwaukee’s John Salmons that forced key turnover to help preserve victory earlier in the week. Cleveland is 26-12 and 21-16-1 ATS outside of Ohio.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as 1.5-point road favorites with total of 193.5 on this Easter Sunday clash and the Cavs are 12-5 ATS on this day of the week and 6-2 UNDER in last eight games. Boston is proving more and more they can’t compete with the better teams and are 7-18-1 ATS if the opponent has record of .600 or higher. The Celtics are 29-11 OVER off a loss.

The favorite in this matchup is 5-1 ATS and the previous five contests in Boston are 4-1 OVER.

San Antonio at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

Despite trying circumstances, San Antonio (46-29, 39-35-1 ATS) has flourished. Playing without Tony Parker, other players like Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan missing a game here and there and schedule back-loaded with games, the Spurs have managed to win 15 of last 20 (14-6 ATS). San Antonio is in seventh spot in the hostile Western Conference, but is only one loss behind Oklahoma City and two behind Denver and Utah, and can move up possibly if they continue to win.

Off the 112-100 triumph over Orlando, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS after crossing the century mark.
The Lakers (55-21, 32-42-2 ATS) have not played very good basketball, with an 8-6 (5-9 ATS) record since Mar. 4, before facing Utah two days ago. The Jazz bring out the best in Los Angeles, as Kobe Bryant and teammates handed Utah their eighth straight loss at the Staples Center 106-92 as 4.5-point favorites.

L.A. has played almost arrogantly bored of late, more going thru the motions waiting for the playoffs to begin, however playing against other quality teams like Utah in the West brought back the intensity and it will be interesting to see if they play with same passion against the Spurs. The Lakers haven’t covered back to back games since Feb. 6-10, when they did so three consecutive times.

The Lakers are a six-point favorite with total of 194, but are just 3-9 ATS on previous dozen home tilts and are 20-7-1 UNDER off a win by double digits. San Antonio is perfect against the number if their opponent scored 100 or more points in last contest at 8-0 ATS and is 10-4-1 UNDER on Sunday’s.

The Lakers are on 7-1 ATS run against the Greg Popovich’s Spurs and the UNDER is 5-0 in L.A.

Hopefully a very Good Friday

Great to be back among the living after an intense week of baseball preparation and writing. Let’s start tonight off a NBA totals system that is 87.1 percent. Let’s motor along to Slick Rick who delivers another Free Play. The Celtics are today’s Top Trend, are they in good or bad situation? Good Luck

What I thought today- Actually I will share it over the weekend about the all but certain NCAA (money comes first) Tournament.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play UNDER on all teams like Detroit when the total is 200 or higher, having failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, a well rested team playing six or less games in 14 days. This system is super 27-4 the last 14 seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Boston Celtics are 4-16 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is bordering on two week hot streak and is playing the Spurs as his best bet.

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NBA scheduling affects playoff picture

Roughly three weeks remain in the NBA regular season and sports bettors are racking their brains trying to come up with the right answers to pick winners. The playoff chase is in high gear and many teams are scrambling for better positions or are trying to round their game into top form.

Among the many factors a NBA bettor has to take into consideration is scheduling, especially at crunch time late in the season. Every day this time of the season, nearly half the games do not have an overnight line due to one injury or another from a myriad of teams and if they are forced to play back to-back games or three in four days with travel involved, determining a winner is just that much more complicated.

While one is left to ponder these unfriendly conditions, here is what the schedule looks like for many of the contenders in each conference.

Western Conference Shoot-out

At least mathematically, 10 teams in the West still have a chance to secure a playoff spot and as this article was posted, each of them have a winning record in their previous 10 outings, proving what is at stake for all of them.

Unless the Los Angeles Lakers come down with an epidemic, they are fairly secure to wrap up the top slot out West. The second position is like the smog in L.A., not quite as clear. Denver and Dallas are going toe to toe, trying not only to keep teams from hunting them down in their own divisions, but seeking the higher seed should they meet possibly in the West semi-finals with crucial home court advantage at stake.

Both teams have seven road games left and the Mavericks have the edge in that department with 22-12 mark and brilliant 21-13 ATS record as visitors. Besides their exceptional road radiance, Dallas will be either favored or a short underdog in five of those contests.

Denver on the other hand is .500 on the road and 15-16-3 ATS in traveling uniforms. This week they open a five game road trip, visiting rugged outposts like Boston, Orlando and finishing up in Big D, possibly a real deciding matchup. The Nuggets also have a demanding close to the year- @Oklahoma City, home to the Lakers, San Antonio and Memphis and @Phoenix.

Positions four-thru eight will be not only challenge each West contender, but the wits of those putting down the cash to bet the correct side. Three teams in particular will have to literally take it one game at a time and will not have much time to do so. San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston all have a heavy workload with 14 games in just over three weeks. The Thunder have the most games on their own floor with eight and is 22-11 and 18-15 ATS, winning by 5.7 points per contest at the Ford Center. OKC will have to earn their postseason spot even at home, facing all contenders except for Minnesota on Apr. 4.

The Spurs have been scorching the last few weeks even without Tony Parker in the lineup. George Hill has proven his value at the point guard and they will need him and the other veterans like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to overcome a hellacious close to the year. The eight road games is hard enough (16-16, 14-18 ATS) at places like Boston, the Lakers, Phoenix, Denver and Dallas. But even when they are back home, Kobe and company pays a visit as does Cleveland and Orlando. If San Antonio doesn’t slip to eighth seed, it would appear to be a miracle, even with how well they have been executing.

Houston looks like a longshot to make the playoffs, down four games in the loss column to Portland and having eight remaining road games, all in groups of two or three. The Rockets are 8-14 as road dogs (10-12 ATS) and need a 11-3 close to even give themselves a chance.

Utah and Phoenix have both been playing solid basketball for some time and are seeking the all important first round home series as a fourth seed. The Suns have the more arduous journey with eight road games in final 12 contests, which includes a five-game trip mostly thru the Midwest. Steve Nash and the gang should at least show a profit as visitors, as they are 19-14 away from the desert, losing by less than a point a game (-0.8).

Utah’s slate is similar to the Suns, with one less roadie and one more in Salt Lake City. The Jazz travels should include being a road favorite in at least five of their stops and they will be favored in all five contests at EnergySolutions Arena.

Eastern Conference battle and positioning

The Boston Celtics have endured a great deal of criticism this season. This team is loaded with veterans, some believe a little too old. The C’s haven’t shown a great deal of heart or are just lacking in talent against the upper echelon clubs since the calendar turned to 2010. From wagering perspective their home record is their most disconcerting aspect at 21-12 and abysmal 10-22-1 spread mark. Eight of their final 13 contests are at TD Banknorth Garden and the Celtics better take advantage or they could fall to fourth seed, which would mean facing Cleveland in East semis.

Barring injuries or an unforeseen major collapse, the Milwaukee Bucks are going to back to the playoffs. The Milwaukee front office deserves a great deal of credit, adding veterans with young players to have this club in the fifth slot in the East, thanks to 14-3 sprint since Feb.19, with 12-3-2 ATS mark. The Bucks can generate further momentum by playing nine of their final 14 games at the Bradley Center where they are 23-9 and 20-11-1 ATS.
The Chicago Bulls still have a chance, but they have fallen out of favor with their 1-10 slide like Sandra Bullock’s husband. That leaves three teams fighting to avoid first round matchup with LeBron James and the fellas.

Miami, Charlotte and Toronto are bunched like bananas and the Bobcats should have the edge. Charlotte has the most remaining home games, eight of last 13, where they are 25-8 and 19-14 ATS. At present, only two of those contests will be against teams with winning records.

The Raptors are playing the poorest of the trio and are equal parts home and away for their remaining conflicts. Toronto could well be saddled with facing Cleveland, because they are the worst defensive team in points surrendered in the East.

The Heat’s biggest strength down the stretch is Dwayne Wade. Miami has eight road games left on their plate (only five at home), which sounds daunting until you take a closer look. Of those, only Milwaukee has a winning record. That leaves it up to Heat players to take grab the proverbial bull by the horns and finish sixth, thus missing the Cavs and Orlando in the opening round of the postseason. Miami is 15-18 on the road with 17-16 ATS record.

This is a great time for all NBA bettors to take stock of each contending team’s situation and think in advance how they season may play out when it comes to the schedule.

NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.

Top NBA Monday Systems

Changes will be occurring in Charlotte as an ownership bid has been made, headed by one of the NBA’s best players ever. Tonight’s question does that lift the burden off the Bobcats to finally take down Dallas for the first time ever? The numbers point to no, at least as far as system plays are concerned, as we review the possibilities on an NBA Monday. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Dallas (+2, 192) at Charlotte

The Bobcats will officially have a new ownership group led by Michael Jordan once the league approves them. Until then, the next order of business is doing something they have never done, beat Dallas. Charlotte is 0-11 (4-6-1 ATS) against the Mavericks since joining the league and faces a club that has won seven in a row and is not in a favorable position tonight. Play against teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher, since they are 27-6 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (-4, 196) at Philadelphia

The Magic have been playing their usual solid defense, holding last six opponents to 95.5 points per game, however the offense has been a little stagnant, averaging 97 points a contest in last five tries compared to season average of 101. Look to play against (7-24 ATS, L5Y) teams after five or more consecutive Unders, who are a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.

New York (+11.5, 211) at Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won three in a row, shooting over 50 percent as a team, while the Knicks have lost nine of 10 and dream about tendering LeBron James a contract in the off-season. For now, play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, off two or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. This situation is 61-22 since 1996.

San Antonio (-2.5, 195) at New Orleans

At times this season, it’s been almost hard to believe this is the San Antonio Spurs coached by Greg Popovich. Take their last four games in which they have allowed 109 or more points three times. Nevertheless, teams like the Spurs who are road favorites and ordinary defensive team (92-98 PPG), taking on poorer defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 47-18 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread this season.

Portland (+1, 195) at Memphis

Portland concludes their five game road trip in the mid-south off a mauling of division partner Minnesota 110-91. Given the total on this contest, look to play Under on road teams when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. In the last five seasons, this system is 72-33.

Denver (+2.5, 221) at Phoenix

Both teams suffered defeats against conference rivals yesterday, ending winning streaks. Phoenix is 22-7 SU at Planet Orange (home court) winning by eight points per game and appears to be in the better spot. Home favorites having successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 20-3 ATS the last three years.

Utah (-6, 202) at L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles has lost three of four to the Jazz at home, including Feb. 9 matchup 109-99 as five point underdogs. This places the Clips in a negative predicament since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season, are 9-30 ATS.