College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

NFL Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it’s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let’s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ’07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ’95 to ’01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it’s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let’s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends

I’ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ’93, you’d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:

*Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ’09 Divisional Round.

*The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ’05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

*In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

*In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER’s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

*There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number

There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:

*The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ’04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ’04.

*The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ’03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

*Dating back to ’96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

*Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

*There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends

Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ’93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:

*Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ’04, including three straight outright losses.

*There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

*In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ‘98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

*Bettors haven’t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ’93 in the Divisional Round, this “smart money” just 24-29 ATS (45%). What’s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

*The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move.

*Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ’05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends

As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let’s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:

*Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ’99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

*The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ’93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

*The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ’93, this “smart money” has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends

Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.

*Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ’93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

*Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ’04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

*The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ’93.

*Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend’s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records

Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ’04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:

*All four of this year’s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

*This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

*Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

Trends based upon Statistical Traits

Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week’s Wildcard games.

*Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, since ’02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

*Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

*The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

*Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

*Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ‘07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

*Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ’93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ’03.

*Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ’93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

*To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let’s move over to the defensive side of the ball.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93, so we aren’t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

*A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

*Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

*When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ’93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

*Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ’93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

*It’s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

*Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ’93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

Man, I love doing this! I am always astounded about the things we can find. Just think, in the Wildcard Round, it was most important to have shown the ability to score points and throw the football. Here, in the Divisional Round, the run game takes precedence. Any guesses on what it will be next week? We WILL find out when we’re back to look at Conference Championship Sunday! Good luck this weekend.

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

New York Yankees revenge-minded favorites

The New York Yankees hold down first place in the American League East, however that will be only one the things they will have on their minds as Boston comes to town for consequential four-game series. New York is 0 for 2009 against the Red Sox, having lost eight games to them and they fully realized many more losses could cost them coveted division crown.

With the Yankees having been outscored 55-31 by the BoSox this season, manager Joe Girardi framed succinctly what these games mean. “You want to get that zero, that goose egg out of there,” Girardi said. “We’re going to be asked about that goose egg as long as it’s there, so you want to get that out of the way as soon as possible.”

After playing sloppy baseball the first three games in Chicago, New York won the last contest against the White Sox and swept Toronto 2-0, including taking down Yankee-killer Roy Halladay. This has to give Girardi’s club a mental boost and they are 14-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season.

Boston (62-44, +3 units) limps into the Big Apple, after losing two to Tampa Bay, falling further behind the Bronx Bombers and letting the Rays narrow the gap for wild card to three games. The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent all season on the road, scoring 4.8 runs per game, but tending to do it bunches. This accounts for 27-27 record and they are only 18-29 playing against a team with win percentage of 54-to-62 percent in the second half of the season since last year.

Boston will be at another disadvantage, as pickup John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12 ERA) has been totally ineffective. In his last three starts, Smoltz has ERA of 9.18 and has been tagged for six home runs, not exactly recipe for success at long ball-friendly Yankee Stadium. Though the former Atlanta hurler didn’t walk a batter, he is 1-8 after allowing no free passes over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yanks Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) by contrast has been amazingly effective. He’s come up with several big performances when New York has needed them and in last three starts, he has 0.83 ERA over 21 innings, surrendering just eight hits, posting three wins. Chamberlain and his pin-striped teammates are 14-3 in his last 17 starts in the Bronx.

Sports bettors are pounding the money line at Bookmaker.com on New York, now up to -200 after opening at -170, with the total relatively stable at Un10. The Red Sox should have confidence based on this year’s results and are 22-7 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season. New York returns home feeling much the same way on three game winning streak. The Yankees are 20-6 off a victory and have won 27 of last 37 encounters. They have had their way with right-hand starters with sensational 17-4 record.

First pitch is set for 7:05 Eastern and though public perception is these rivals always play high-scoring games, they are 9-9 against the total playing in New York.

Time to climb over the hump on Wednesday

It was a bad day at Bedrock (rare Flintstone’s reference) with 0-3 record. I really sense a tumultuous period, with lots of surprising underdogs winning. If you are not having good season, it might be time to bail and get ready for football or be very careful like yours truly over the next several days. The Best System is 90.9 percent and has complete article about it is written for today. The Top Trend features a Brewers pitcher and Randy of the LCC hopes to keep winning with Free play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday - Ichiro Suzuki went 2-for-5 in the Mariners' 7-6 win at Kansas City. It was the 600th multiple-hit game of Ichiro's nine-year major-league career. That's by far the most multi-hit games over a nine-year span during the live-ball era. The second-highest total during that time is 581 by Rogers Hornsby (1920-1928 and 1921-1929). Thanks Elias

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) See Reds article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brandon Looper of Milwaukee is 1-11 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Randy of the LCC pops up on 7-2 baseball run and likes the Rangers on the money line.

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New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.