2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 3:50 PM MST

I got an email from a guy who is a pretty sharp bettor who told me to play Michigan on the money line. I didn’t see it until after the game had started, I can only hope he also had the Wolverines against the spread.

An absolutely superb performance by Michigan in which they should have won the game, but their coach John Beilein had his team push hard for 39 minutes and 57.8 seconds and just like a football coach, goes into prevent defense. There is really no defending their defense in those few precious seconds. Manny Harris and his teammates deserved better, but their coach didn’t do his job at crunch time.

You have to give props to Evan Turner, it was a remarkable shot and what ESPN’s Steve Lavin said, I thought as it was happening, great form by Turner to give him and his team a chance.

How do you figure Illinois? For 35 minutes they looked like they should have tied for the Big Ten title, great precision on offense and stifling defense. Wisconsin ended shooting 28.6 percent for the game and was outrebounded by five and certainly did not look like Bo Ryan coached team as eight point favorites.

The top plays from the handicappers today look like this today. St. Louis (L) Florida State, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Xavier.

Sports Bettors want a Super Tuesday

Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who is off a crushing defeat. College basketball sports bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday.

Spartans claim Michigan as their state

Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed their true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run their record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans despite shooting just 39.3 percent kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beat Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully getting our goals at the end of the year.

The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.

Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament.

“Those are our two options right now.” The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.

ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Meechigan has covered four in a row overall.

Top team hits the road

John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for a team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and they are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.

South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points.

South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.

This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.

Oh how the mighty have fallen

North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight they might be a generous two-point choice in Raleigh against Wolfpack team that actually has better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.

Not your ordinary college football Saturday

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan 12:00E ABC

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 15

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College 12:00E ESPN2

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis’ third season, but don’t blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina’s (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina’s first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

3DW Line – Boston College by 1.5

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 4.5

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson 3:30E ABC/GP

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

3DW Line – Clemson by 20.5

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5) at Nebraska 7:45E ESPN

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 14

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona 8:00E ABC/GP

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let’s start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn’t wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Foles at quarterback has kept the ‘Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven’t been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

3DW Line – Oregon by 5

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas 8:00E ABC/GP

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn’t been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week’s rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players’ mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 31

Saturday's Hot Plate

We’ve been in a slump all week, time to bounce out of it and I believe we have the ammo to do so. We’ll start in the Big Ten with an 85.7 percent Best System. That is followed by a perfect reverse trend at 0-15. Though I actually like the team to win and cover, I’m off it because of the strong angle. Paul Buck has not one but two Free Plays today. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – It drives me crazy when people gloat about be right on a game they were incredibly fortunate to win. Thursday night I had a push with East Carolina and I got emails from people who had West Virginia at -12.5, telling me what a sap I was for having ECU. I guess I am, since I had the correct side for 58 minutes and only a bad bounce that led to interception cost me the cover. You will always find me thanking my lucky stars when I receive luck like that, not bragging because of unusual fortune.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like MEECHIGAN off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of six more, with a winning record on the season. Since 2000, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Saw this earlier this year and still can’t believe it. Penn State is 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is having an exceptional season in college football with 62-39 record (61.3 percent) on all sides and totals. He won’t reveal his top pick (it’s for sale here) but his next two choices are UCLA and N.C. State.

We have a pair of 4* plays (out of 5) that are a Guaranteed Package in college football today. Be a HUGE Winner today!

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5

Saturday College Football Betting Previews

With conference play on across the country, important matchups popup the second Saturday in October that will have a massive impact on what the standings will look like in early December. The winners will emerge with a decided edge and the losers will be playing catch-up unless the breaks fall their way. Ole Miss has to beat Alabama, since another SEC loss relegates them to less bowl possibilities. The winner of Wisconsin and Ohio State grabs the upper hand in the Big Ten and both host Iowa. Oregon is playing like many thought they would back in August; however that has been in Eugene, they’ll see what they can do at UCLA. The Hawkeyes will try and move to 6-0 hosting Michigan after dark. The loser of Georgia and Tennessee will have to take a look at their goals for the rest of the year. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Georgia (+1, 46) at Tennessee 12:00E SEC Network

The SEC is steeped in football tradition, which makes no sense why Georgia and Tennessee can’t be played on what it historically known for “the third Saturday in October”. Every college football fan south of the Mason-Dixon Line knows this; but the schedule-makers have decided to ignore tradition. The Bulldogs (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are off emotionally draining 20-13 home joust with LSU, which was their last home game until Nov.7. Coach Mark Richt’s squad has had to fight for everything this season, not having supreme talent difference. Quarterback Joe Cox has played fairly well, but has made his contribution to Georgia having 13 turnovers this season. A.J. Green and Cox have been clicking with more regularity, opening up the running game. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the first of two or more SEC true road encounters.

After losing to Auburn 26-22, Tennessee (2-3 SU&ATS) is in a very demanding position. The Volunteers defense has been struck by a large amount of injuries, forcing backups to compete in this extremely competitive conference. Coaches can say the next person has to be prepared and step up, however, when you are facing multiple substitutions, the task becomes more daunting. Tennessee is seeing more eight man fronts, daring quarterback Jonathan Crompton to throw and he needs to keep his poise and deliver strikes. The Vols are 10-23 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9.

Off last week’s challenging encounters, this is gut-check time for both SEC squads. Another conference loss could send Tennessee tumbling, with Alabama and South Carolina on deck after a bye week. The visiting team is 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and Georgia stays in the SEC East hunt with a victory. Totals players beware, the Vols are 10-0 UNDER against SEC opponents over the last two seasons.

3DWLine – Tennessee by 7

Alabama (-4.5, 46) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) continues to look like the most complete team in the country after cornering Kentucky 38-20 and can take another step closer to realizing just how good they could be. Quarterback Greg McElroy has surpassed all outsiders’ expectations and runs an efficient attack with ample weaponry. McElroy’s claim to fame before this season was sitting and waiting his turn to become starter. However, he’s earning other acclaim with 22-0 record as starter dating back to high school. To date, the defense has shutdown every offense, with its domineering defensive line and has incredible size and speed everywhere else. The Crimson Tide are 12-5-1 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

Mississippi’s hopes of being SEC West champs hinge on the outcome of this contest in Oxford. This means Jevan Snead has to forget about all the preseason hype that surrounded him and be the same player he was last season. The offense has had zero rhythm all season. Besides Snead’s accuracy issues, pass protection has been failing in obvious pass situations and the running game is more inconsistent than an episode of “Brothers”. The defense has carried Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS) and they will need another ginormous effort against the Crimson Tide. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs at The Grove vs ranked teams.

Alabama has won 13 of last 15 meetings, but the visitor is 2-7 ATS in last nine get-togethers. The Tide has won five in a row, including controversial contest two years ago in Oxford on shaky at best call that went their way late, that preserved 27-24 win as six-point road favorites. Bama has not covered the spread against the Rebels since 2004.

3DW Line – Alabama by 3.5

Wisconsin (+16, 47) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC-ESPN

This will be Wisconsin’s second straight road game and they are 29-14 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. QB Scott Tolzien continues to be efficient and re-juggled offensive line has kept his uniform clean. Tolzien has found different receivers, but when it’s time to move the Badgers into the end zone, tight end Garrett Graham is the preferred choice. On defense, Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) is finding better combinations to slow opponents running game and rush the passer; nonetheless, the secondary still allows too many big plays. Wisky is 0-8 ATS versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 or fewer yards per game over the last three seasons.

Since surrendering 27 points against the Navy’s option offense, Ohio State’s defense has conceded 32 total points in next four games. Normally this would draw huge media attention, but with the Buckeyes big game woes and the Big Ten’s fall in stature, the Kardashian’s attract more interest. Ohio State (4-1 SU&ATS) has turned into Coke Zero under coach Jim Tressel. They look and feel like the original, but are rather dull, leaving nobody all that excited. The defense recently pitched a pair of shutouts for the first time in 13 years, but few outside of Columbus could name a Buckeyes defensive starter. QB Terrelle Pryor was flashy recruit, but he’s been mostly effective in Tressel’s offense, lacking pizzazz. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the middle of a road sandwich.

Wisconsin is the only team to conquer Ohio State three times this decade and they are 6-3 ATS since 1996. No reason for the Buckeyes not to be focused since they will be large favorites in next three games and they are 17-4 ATS in home games versus offensive clubs averaging 425 or more yards per game.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 14.5

Oregon (-3.5, 46.5) at UCLA 3:30E ABC-GP

The word is out; don’t go to sleep on UCLA, as they stand 3-1 this season after Stanford conflict. The Bruins defense doesn’t have much depth, but their front-line players can stop the run and chase down frightened quarterbacks, ranking 20th nationally in total defense. Coach Rick Neuheisel isn’t certain if regular starting signal caller Kevin Prince’s broken jaw is sufficiently healed, but if not, senior Kevin Craft is an adequate replacement. Coach Rick would really like to get freshman Randall Carroll and Morrell Presley more involved in the passing game and utilize their speed for longer gains. The Bruins (3-1 ATS) are big and bad at home with 17-5 ATS Pac-10 record in the last five seasons.

Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) followed up dismantling of California by rubbing out Washington State 52-6. This will be the Ducks first road game since losing to Boise State. Since dispirited effort in Idaho, the Oregon offense has averaged 40.7 points per game, with junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli regaining his passing eye and touch. The big turnaround in confidence for Masoli has coincided with playing pitch and catch with tight end Ed Dickson. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James is quickly making people forget what’s his name (LeGarrette Blount). The Ducks make plenty of noise with a 9-2 spread record in their second road of the year.

Oregon would just as soon forget their last trip to the Rose Bowl, being shutout 16-0 as one-point favorites. The home team has had the higher number on the scoreboard in the last three meetings, but the visitor is 12-5 ATS the last 19 years. The Ducks play on the fake turf at home, nevertheless are 19-8 ATS playing on real grass during the regular season. The oddsmakers number might be key, since the underdog is 11-5 against the spread.

3DW Line – Oregon by 1

Michigan (+8, 47.5) at Iowa 8:00E ABC

Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) ran out of gas at in-state rival Michigan State 26-20 in overtime and takes to the road a second straight time. One major difference in the Wolverines revival has been coach Rich Rodriquez’s ability to sell this team on his methods. Michigan is marginally more talented than a season ago, having more speed in key positions along with quarterback more suited to run the offense. However, this team enjoyed early success and came together. The Wolverines are averaging 34 points per game mostly behind QB Tate Forcier, thanks in part to offensive line punching holes in defenses. The Michigan stop unit has yet to stop an offense not in the MAC (ranked 91st) and lacks ability and presumably desire to raise their level of play. Ann Arbor’s finest are 2-6-1 the last few years as Big Ten road underdogs.

After completing non-conference slate with triumph against Arkansas State 24-21, the 5-0 Hawkeyes (3-1 ATS) return to Big Ten battles. This is homecoming weekend and if Iowa can win the next three weeks (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State), the conference crown could be decided quite possibly when they travel to Ohio State in mid-November. Iowa has won with defense and special teams this year. It’s been a foregone conclusion the defense will find a strategy to stop opposing offense (10th in scoring defense) and one aspect of the special teams has delivered weekly. The running game is in good hands with Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, but at some point, QB Ricky Stanzi is going to have to lead his team to victory. The Hawkeyes are 27-8 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.

Michigan arrives in Iowa City 7-1 ATS in the second of two straight road encounters. These teams don’t meet annually, but the Hawkeyes are 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings.

3DW Line – Iowa by 9

Five Prime Choice College Football Games

The calendar has flipped over to October, which means an emphasis on conference play takes over. Even though the season is roughly just a third of the way over, this week has survival mode written all over it already. In mid-September, USC and Cal has national title implication, now the loser could be through in the Pac-10 race. Michigan State believed they were contender for Big Ten hunt; instead they are searching just for a win. Despite perfect record, LSU has not impressed and likely can’t absorb a loss with Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida still to play. Lane Kiffen’s Tennessee squad is looking for bowl bid and doesn’t want to slip below .500 again. Oklahoma and Miami really don’t want to take on another L, if they want to remain relevant. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan (+3.5, 54.5) at Michigan State BTN 12:00E

The Wolverines (3-1 ATS) leave Ann Arbor for the first time, but at least they are still playing in the state of Michigan. You would have to think Rich Rodriquez team being 4-0 is a minor surprise nationally, though they were favorites in three of them. Kudos to RichRod for adding more speed on both sides of the ball and believing in frosh QB Tate Forcier to run the offense. One overlooked aspect that is less visible is how much better the offensive line plays. All the fancy formations and trickeration is terrific, but unless the big boys up front create running lanes, none of this happens. Meechigan is 3-8 and frightening 1-10 ATS in road opener.

Michigan State (1-2 ATS) fully expected to be no worse than 3-1 coming to this contest, but after Wisconsin loss, they sit at 1-3. The Spartans pass defense has left much to desire and coach Mark Dantonio summed it up best - “We’ve left plays on the field”. With the defense befuddled at present, the offense has to carry the burden. Kirk Cousins has won the quarterback job and the sophomore has been poised much of the time and shown ability to deliver the pigskin on target to Spartan receivers. Michigan State is 0-6-2 ATS in last eight home sandwich encounters.

In this Wolverine State battle, it’s always meant more to the Spartans, being the second-class citizen, especially in football. Last year they broke their six-game losing streak to Michigan and won at the Big House for the first time since 1990. The visitor is 4-1-1 ATS in last six matchups and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS. The Wolverines opened as favorites and have been shifted to underdogs, which makes the dog play all that more interesting, since the hound is 8-2-1 ATS in East Lansing.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 1.5


LSU (-3.5, 50.5) at Georgia CBS 3:30E

Georgia is 2-0 in the SEC and could be a surprise team of sorts with a win over unbeaten LSU. The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) offense has clicked in averaging 37.6 points per game in last three contests, as senior signal caller Joe Cox has settled into comfortable rhythm. Coach Mark Richt believes even better days are ahead. “We’ve been finding a way to keep it exciting,” Richt said. “I’m very thankful for the victory, excited to be 2-0 in the SEC. I don’t think we’ve come close to playing as well as we can.” Defensively, these Bulldogs have no bite, ranked 67th in total defense and even worse 91st against the pass. There soft zone isn’t exactly the Da Vinci code and a lack of pass rush makes it easier to understand than a Ron White joke. Georgia is 10-15-1 ATS in SEC action the last four seasons.

How good is LSU? Were about to find out with three strenuous conference conflicts starting in Athens. The best description of the Tigers (4-0, 1-2-1 ATS) to this point is “workmanlike” and their victory over Washington to start the year was proof. Last week, in spite a 4-0 turnover advantage, LSU needed a goal line stand at Mississippi State to hold off those Bulldogs. LSU’s offense is ranked last in the SEC at 310 yards per game. QB Jordan Jefferson has his moments as passer and LSU does have talent on the perimeter with Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell. The running game has been inconsistent and can’t afford another pathetic performance like last week when they finished with 30 yards. There is no shortage of athletes on defense, however against the two best offenses they’ve faced; LSU has conceded almost 25 points per game. The Tigers are 20-14-1 ATS on the SEC road the last nine years, but 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers.

Under coach Miles, the Tigers are 9-24-3 ATS in league play and are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Georgia. Last year’s 14-point win was the largest over LSU in five decades. The Bulldogs have struggled with teams sporting 75 percent or higher win percentage, with 3-14 ATS mark. LSU does have history on their side after running the ball so poorly, being 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

3DWLine –Georgia by 4

Auburn (+2.5, 52) at Tennessee ESPN 7:45E

Don’t look for another boring 14-12 game like last season when these teams met. Last year, over two-thirds of the drives (29 total) between Auburn and Tennessee were four plays or fewer, making viewers yawn incessantly. The Tigers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) high-powered offense is averaging 45.2 points per game, with over 526 total yards. It’s a great story of character, as QB Chris Todd has overcome last year’s problems and thrived in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s new offense. In the only above average offense the Auburn defense faced, they struggled (30 points allowed). Tennessee doesn’t necessarily present the same issues that West Virginia exposed. However, if Jonathan Crompton tosses more errant passes, the Tigers have real ball-hawks that will pick them off. This is Auburn’s initial road contest and they are 10-3 ATS in this spot.

Tennessee (2-2 ATS) is back to .500 after outlasting Ohio U 34-23. Coach Lane Kiffin would kill to have a better option than Crompton under center, but he doesn’t. Crompton makes terrible decisions and often worse throws that lead to interceptions. Kiffin has placed the offense in the hands of the offensive line and running backs, trying to give his club the best chance to win. No such issues on the defensive side where safety Eric Berry leads a scrappy contingent that gives its all. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin wants his guys to be more disciplined in third down situations, as the two BCS teams the Vols have played are converting almost 50 percent. Tennessee is 6-13-1 ATS hosting SEC opponents.

Being in opposite SEC divisions, these teams don’t play one another frequently. Auburn has won last four meetings (2-2 ATS), with previous loss to Tennessee coming in 1999. The underdog has covered the spread the last three, with the Volunteers 5-1 ATS in orange uniforms. Timing is everything and the Volunteers are 10-22 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 1.5

Oklahoma (-7.5, 49.5) at Miami ABC-GP 8:00 ABC

Coach Randy Shannon has taken what appeared to be impossible situation and turned into a positive. Miami’s (2-1 SU&ATS) first four games were the most challenging in college football. If they can upset Oklahoma this week, this would mark the return of the importance of the “U” in college football. Jacory Harris has blossomed as sophomore in offensive scheme that suits his abilities. What’s most impressive about Harris’ growth is his football IQ, completing passes to everyone but the ball boy, with a dozen different receivers catching his tosses. Running back Kraig Cooper continues to be a versatile performer, sparking the offense where needed. The defensive line is tougher than the bouncers at The Mansion at Miami Beach. The Hurricanes however are 7-11 ATS at home against Top 25 clubs.

Oklahoma (2-1 SU&ATS) wanted to make sure it was prepared and had a bye week, which was to supposed to benefit Heisman winner Sam Bradford, but coach Bob Stoops is saying that Landry Jones will be his starting quarterback. After the BYU loss, the offense has gotten back in gear and the defense has played at the level most expected before the season began, hanging a couple of zeros on the scoreboard against Idaho State and Tulsa. Coach Stoops has praised the offensive line for opening bigger holes for runners Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS off a win and playing non-conference foe.

If Miami (2-1 SU&ATS) thought they saw a lot of pressure in being overwhelmed by Virginia Tech defense, wait till they see the Sooners’ defenders. Oklahoma laid it on Miami 51-13 two years ago in Norman as 11-point favorites and is 28-5 (7-8 ATS) against all current ACC squads. Boomer Sooner is 10-2 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards (45-0 over Tulsa) and 8-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Miami returns to Landshark Stadium 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Hurricanes only loss to present Big 12 teams was to the Sooners; otherwise they are 8-0 SU and ATS. The last time Oklahoma faced the Canes in Miami was the 1988 Orange Bowl when they lost 20-14, ending a perfect season.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 9.5

USC (-4.5, 46.5) at California ABC-GP 8:00E

This isn’t the kind of game USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) has a problem getting up for and playing their best, however a deeper question exists beyond all the quarterback chatter. What’s the deal with the rest of the Trojans? The offensive line is supposed to be great, thus far that’s very debatable except in spurts. The defense has a ton of talent, but needs the vocal leadership of Taylor Mays as a rallying point, especially in times of adversity. Could the quarterback play be better, of course it, yet the fact remains these are 18 and 19 year olds and no matter what kind of uniform they where, they are going to have rough spots and it’s up to their teammates to step it up and help whoever is under center. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS as 3.5-10-point road favorites.

Off the blowout loss to Oregon, this is the defining game that will tell the story of the Cal Bears (3-1, SU&ATS) in 2009. Forget USC’s Washington State triumph, the Trojans haven’t looked this vulnerable early in the season since Pete Carroll’s first year in 2001. Coach Jeff Tedford knows he has the better quarterback in Kevin Riley and the best running back in Jahvid Best coming into this matchup. The Trojans might have better overall personnel on defense, but with players like defensive end Tyson Alualu and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal can certainly compete, especially if they can control the USC running game. The Bears are 9-4 ATS at Berkeley against ranked opponents.

This Strawberry Canyon collision takes on completely different significance with each team having a Pac-10 loss. The loser at best is looking at Holiday Bowl as most reachable goal from this juncture, not exactly soul-stirring when dreaming of national title chase. Confidence will be extremely important, since both will take shots and how they react will figure into the outcome.

California is 8-0 ATS at home the last two years, but the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in this anticipated Pac-10 tilt. With California 1-7 and 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings and the Trojans 5-16 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, survivor gear required.

3DW Line – Cal by 4.5

On the hunt for Super Saturday

When we last did this we got slapped around pretty good, time to change it up on Saturday and attack. We have an 85.7 percent Best System play in the Upper Midwest. The Top Trend is 11-0 and could be a fly by winner. Sal was very strong last Saturday and will back the team on the banks of the Hudson River.

What I thought today- I’m not saying this won’t be good, however when a group of handicappers all get on one-side, my best estimate is the play craps out about two-thirds of the time. Today such a play is Washington with the points against USC. I’m not saying to play the Trojans either, just be careful.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Meechigan who excellent rushing team who are averaging 4.8 or more YPA, against a team with a terrible rushing defense who allows the same or worse amount of yards per carry in non-conference games. Dating back to 1992 this system is 24-4, ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Air Force is is 11-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal was 6-2 in CFB last weekend and has the Army as his best bet going today.

Check out today’s Guaranteed CFB Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 11-6 ATS last week in CFB.

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College Football Betting Saturday

It’s a busy Saturday of college football and sports bettors should be ready with a number of compelling televised matchups. The most important contest of the day has USC traveling to Ohio to tackle the Buckeyes; however that isn’t the only one. Notre Dame and Michigan get to prove which program is further along on rebuilding process. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will try to extract revenge for last year’s loss at UCLA. West Virginia is also looking to settle a score with East Carolina, after being dressed down by the Pirates last season. Finally, it’s the SEC opener for South Carolina and Georgia, with both teams seeking offense. It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

East Carolina (+6, 44) at West Virginia 3:30E

Last year, East Carolina burst onto the scene with opening game upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates went on to win the Conference USA championship. With 16 returning starters, they’ll try and take the next step in beating a major BCS school on the road. In a league known for wide-open offenses, coach Skip Holtz went for defense. The D-line is a particular is a strength, with the likes of Jay Ross and Linval Joseph on the inside at tackle and C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson covering up the ends. Whatever they miss, last year’s leading tackler, middle linebacker Nick Johnson cleans up. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS on the road the last four seasons.

A new era of West Virginia football continues without Pat White at quarterback. Jarrett Brown is the new big on campus and he’ll hopefully lead a more varied attack with four or five exciting targets to throw to like slot receiver Jock Sanders. The one mainstay is running back Noel Devine, who will now be the featured runner. Devine ran for over 1200 yards a season ago and with White no longer toting the pigskin as much, the junior scat back could add 300 to 500 yards to his total if the offensive line comes together. The Mountaineers are mediocre 11-18-1 ATS as home favorites since 2003.

West Virginia had seven-game winning streak snapped last year at East Carolina, but is still 17-3 and 5-3 ATS all-time against the Pirates. The Mountaineers are perfect 12-0 at home versus the squad from Greenville, NC and are 4-1 ATS. Last year was the first time in 79 games the ‘Teers had been held without touchdown and they’ll have serious revenge on their minds this season. Just keep in mind East Carolina is 10-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.

UCLA (+10, 45) at Tennessee ESPN 4:00E

Last year’s 27-24 overtime loss at UCLA set the wheels in motion for Philip Fullmer to be done as coach in Knoxville. Two games later, a home drubbing by Florida showed just how far the talent level has slipped at Tennessee. Lane Kiffin left the Oakland Raiders in controversy and created plenty being hired in Tennessee. With one impressive win over Western Kentucky under their belts, this is a game the Vols must have if they want to go bowling this season. The offensive line returns four starters and they got off to great start with the Vols runners totaling 380 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the competition was much, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton appeared more poised and mature. Look for Tennessee to run the ball with a decent collection of backs and Crompton throwing mainly play-action passes to better receivers than a year ago who lack experience. The Vols are 7-14 ATS vs. present Pac-10 teams.

It’s year two in Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA campus, however it might be only a little better than last year’s 4-8 opening salvo. The starting signal caller is red-shirt freshman Kevin Prince and the Bruins offensive staff likes his ability, however, will have to be patient with his inexperience. The offensive line and running backs are strictly generic, which will limit production. The defense will be the strength of this squad with solid performers up and down the starting 11. They will have to pressure and confuse Crompton, similar to last year and hopefully force a few miscues to place offense in position to score. UCLA is 8-2 ATS as underdogs when opponents are in revenge spot.

The Bruins are 6-2 against the spread vs. Tennessee and are 20-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Off last week’s rout of Western Kentucky, the Volunteers are 8-3-1 ATS at Neyland Stadium as a home favorite the last three years and are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 28 or more points. This could be table-setter for big trip to Gainesville next week.

Notre Dame (-3, 48) at Michigan ABC 3:30E

If adversity builds character, then Rich Rodriguez and Charley Weis are two men well-versed in character issues to sell their respective teams on. No coach in America probably is looking forward to game day more than RichRod as controversy follows him around like a shadow. Rodriguez primarily stayed with Tate Forcier as his quarterback last week against Western Michigan and the results were impressive in Michigan’s 31-7 victory. The offense showed more continuity with everyone more experienced and knowing what the expectations are concerning assignments. The Wolverines should be nastier on defense with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in charge of that side of the ball. Nevertheless, he installed a new 3-4 concept, which means a learning curve for a team that is 14-21-1 ATS at the Big House since 2004.

Notre Dame gave a stunning performance at home against a pretty good Nevada club winning 35-0. Weis’ Fighting Irish will take this act on the road for the first time in 2009. Offensively, Notre Dame is expected to be score points all season with junior Jimmy Clausen in command, throwing to a receiver contingent as good as any in the country. The offensive line has to come off the ball and open holes for an above average stable of backs and if Notre Dame can run effectively, the offense should really hum. From athletic perspective, this is best defense in South Bend in years. The question is how badly will the youth hurt them? The Irish are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in road openers.

This is one of those crazy college football series, with the underdog 12-2 ATS, which has included five upsets in last seven meetings. How Forcier handles the Irish onslaught of pressure will go a long way in determining outcome. If he can make big plays, the Wolverines have a shot, if not, Notre Dame should win. In watching both teams, the most striking aspect is RichRod’s team should be where Weis’ squad is next season. Michigan is 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home, the Fighting Irish are 10-1 UNDER in road games over the last three seasons.

South Carolina (+7, 38) at Georgia ESPN 7:00E

South Carolina has been dying to have a top level football program for some time now; the problem is history doesn’t back them up. The Gamecocks had won 28 games in last four seasons for only the second time in school history (granted, more chances to win with expanded schedule) during Steve Spurrier’s four years. Off the 7-3 defensive struggle with N.C. State, it’s fairly clear Spurrier has a team that should finish above .500, with a losing SEC record. They can attempt to alter people’s perceptions with an upset between the hedges at Georgia. Sophomore QB Stephen Garcia has to be the leader of an offense that has many deficiencies. The defense showed they have ability in holding the Wolfpack to three points and the Gamecocks arrive in Athens 7-3-1 ATS as SEC road underdogs.

Georgia got an early wakeup call at Oklahoma State and were handled 24-10. The Bulldogs have ample talent in supply with one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, however they were held in check for 95 total yards last week. Senior QB Joe Cox, can’t be “no ordinary Joe” like last Saturday and must be more accurate tossing the ball to talented A.J. Green among others. This is big year for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, with 10 of the 11 projected starters for this SEC showdown either juniors or seniors. Georgia has surrendered 30 or more points in last 53 games under Martinez compared to four times in previous four years before his arrival. The Bulldogs are just 4-9 ATS the last four years as conference favorites.

These matchups have been low scoring, tight contests. Georgia was the last team to score 20 points in this confrontation in 2004 and six of last eight have been decided by seven points or less. The wagering public has taken the total from 41 to present level. The Gamecocks are 16-4 UNDER the first two weeks of the season and the Bulldogs are 23-9 UNDER in the first month of a new campaign. The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS of late, with the favorite 7-4-1 against the number.

USC (-6.5, 45) at Ohio State ESPN 8:00E

Though it will be downplayed as such, every Big Ten fan (except possibly in Ann Arbor) would relish an Ohio State victory, even if they hate the Buckeyes. The Big Ten could be a running joke on the new Jay Leno nightly show if they are clobbered again by the Trojans. What’s unfortunate is Jim Tressel’s teams just haven’t been able to beat Florida and USC in the last several seasons in the biggest games and now they are looked upon as outcasts. A strong case can be made the Buckeyes are Phil Mickelson playing in the Tiger Woods era, among the very best, just not the best. Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has enough faith in himself that he can take Ohio State to next plateau starting now. The Buckeyes have had success against Pac-10 teams, but not against USC (0-4 ATS).

Does any team relish the spotlight more than Pete Carroll’s squad? When the lights come, USC is usually at their best and they are 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. The offensive line is Top 3 in every preseason publication and seldom is there a short supply of running backs at USC. Junior RB Joe McKnight is starting to play up to expectations when he hit the USC campus and last week had a scintillating 145-yard, two touchdown game on 14 carries. Freshman Matt Barkley will have to play his way out of the starting job and looks to be the next great Trojans field general. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, however no one is thinking the replacements won’t be top level.

Statement games are a USC specialty and they are 13-3 and 12-4 ATS against Top 10 teams since 2001. The Ohio State defense must finds ways to rattle the youngster Barkley and possibly create turnovers that lead to points. The Trojans are 36-18 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 8-1 ATS in non-conference games. Unless Buckeyes come up big, it will be the same old “overrated” mantra about the Big Ten.

Looking ahead in the rear view mirror

Coaching is often an overlooked aspect of sports betting. Sometimes how a coach prepares a team will have a direct impact on the outcome of a game. Oregon and Illinois were two examples of teams that looked extremely unprepared despite plenty of talk from the respective squads how they were going to dish out revenge.

New coach Chip Kelly’s team was impatient on offense and was completely befuddled by Boise State’s defense. No ability to run or pass in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as the final score.

Ron Zook is starting to look very much like he did in Florida, making Illinois an impossible wager. The Illini defense had a few big hits but was outclassed by a prepared Missouri offense. Juice Williams looked like he was past the expiration date and was totally ineffective. After Illinois State this week, the stumbling Illini are at Ohio State, host Penn State and at Michigan State. This team will win when it’s has no chance and lose in spectacular fashion, just like the “Zooker” teams did in Gainesville.

The Big Ten was 10-1, but 1-6 ATS. Ohio State was shaky, Wisconsin had to battle, Minnesota went to overtime with Syracuse and Iowa needed consecutive blocked field goal attempts to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.

At least the Big Ten won a number of games, the ACC was 4-6 and 1-4 ATS. Two of the spread losses were outright upsets as home favorites and Virginia fell at home 26-14 to William and Mary, (maybe they should have just played Mary) and Duke was rounded up by Richmond 24-16. About the only positive for either conference is league play should be competitive.

Syracuse played with more energy than anyone has seen in years and could have beaten Minnesota. Former Duke point guard Greg Paulus gave good accounting as starting Orangemen quarterback after not playing football for four years.

The Washington Huskies are not going to have a winning record; however they will be much improved, with a good offense led by quarterback Jake Locker. Definite underdog and back door potential with the Huskies.

Alabama could be VERY good come October. What’s so impressive about the Crimson Tide is they have players with large bodies and posteriors who can run and really smack people. The offensive line will only get better and they appear to have ability to wear down opponents in the fourth quarter. This team will be quickly overvalued.

Does Notre Dame FINALLY have something in the works? We’ll know more against improved Michigan, but the real tests will come later.

Tennessee and Auburn showed they might be better than expected, however sports bettors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. Both schools were playing at home in very positive environments that lent themselves to big opening games against inferior competition. Were the wins and covers impressive, yes, but much like the U.S. Open tennis tournament being played in New York, the Vols and Tigers just held serve, Let’s see when adversity strikes and see how they react.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins challenged his team to think big in the off-season and said the goal was to win 10 games in 2009. That task just became a little tougher after being upset 23-17 as 13-point favorites in Boulder. The worst part was the Buffalos looked similar to other teams viewed this weekend; they just weren’t mentally prepared for first game of the season in trailing 17-0, which is inexcusable.

Games to watch this week include Notre Dame at Michigan to see which team is further ahead or possibly can North Carolina defeat Connecticut, as the Huskies were popular play against team last week at Ohio and are 33-17 (20-12-1 ATS) at home since 2003. South Carolina becomes a big opponent for Georgia who hasn’t lost first two games since 1996. East Carolina and West Virginia won’t receive a lot of national exposure, but is important contest for both teams. The Pirates want to show they are Top 25 team and the Mountaineers want to prove they are still the team to beat in the Big East.

Study the numbers

Those who wagered early were not particularly effective with 5-8 ATS record on the sides and 2-3 mark on totals that moved 2.5 or more points as of last Tuesday.

Favorites were 20-19 against the spread and double digit home favorites were 11-9 ATS. Home underdogs didn’t have much luck with 3-5 ATS record.

In studying the final numbers, games in which the final number moved three points or greater, the wagering public was 9-5 ATS on the sides and 6-4-1 on the totals. Overall, the Under was the play at press time with 22-17-1 record for week one.

Study on College Football Talent

In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win their conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and Sun Belt winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play for winning the league title.

Coaching is important, however recruiting in what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. I devised a way several years ago that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position with a weighted system that creates a point value, within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Knowshon Moreno ring a bell) and alter the dynamics of a team. Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.


ACC -Atlantic
1) Clemson -16.5
2) N.C. State -16
3) Boston College -14.5
4) Florida State -12.5
5) Maryland - 6.5
6) Wake Forest -6

ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -23
2) Georgia Tech -20
3) North Carolina – 13.5
4) Duke -7
5) Miami- 6.5
6) Duke -6

Analysis- What was absolutely shocking about doing this study was Florida State is picked to win the ACC Atlantic by most observers, yet ranks sixth in top level talent. That is not to say the Seminoles lack ability, rather, they don’t appear to have a number of difference-makers like Virginia Tech for example. Another aspect that caught me off-guard was how devoid of superior talent the Miami Hurricanes really are. Again, similar to their rival Florida State, the “U” could emerge as a better than expected TEAM overall, but they don’t start the season blessed with tremendous ability. Clemson is under the radar a bit, which might be to their liking, since their offensive and defensive lines will be among the best in the ACC. Nine of the 12 ACC teams have winning overall records as underdogs the last four years. (Check with Sportsbook.com for the latest odds)

Big East
1) Pittsburgh -26.5
2) West Virginia -22.5
3) South Florida -20.5
4) Rutgers -19.5
5) Connecticut -17.5
6) Cincinnati -15
7) Louisville -13
8) Syracuse -10.5

Analysis- Coach Dave Wannstedt has 15 returning Pitt starters in what should be a highly competitive Big East race. Pittsburgh and Rutgers should have the best offensive lines and the Panthers will be rather stout up front on defense. West Virginia is officially in transition on offense with Pat White gone at quarterback and new passing offense will reflect changes in the coming years. South Florida and Rutgers should very competitive, with the Bulls a year smarter having learned what it means to be chased rather than a team on the rise. If USF’s defensive front plays to capabilities, watch out. Cincinnati will score points, however they have 10 new defensive starters. I know Greg Paulus would have been big time recruit if he had chosen football over playing basketball at Duke, but what does it say about how bad the Syracuse football program is when a player walks in to play the most important position on the field, having not played in four years? A ploy to sell tickets, we’ll find out.

Mountain West

1) BYU -25
2) TCU -24
3) Utah -21.5
4) Air Force -18.5
5) Colorado State -15.5
6) UNLV -14
7) Wyoming -10.5
8) New Mexico -6
9) San Diego State -3.5

Analysis – This should be another exciting season in the Mountain West, with three teams capable of winning title. BYU has the slight edge over TCU and Max Hall is poised for monster senior campaign. Utah will be in the mix after perfect season, but lost a lot of talent from last season. It’s a rare occurrence when a military school has a number of players back, but this Air Force club might have a couple of upsets they can pull off. The rest of the MWC is several rungs below, meaning they are unlikely to cover many road spreads and could cover home games, especially if top contenders have look-ahead game.

Big 12 North
1) Missouri -12
2) Kansas -10.5
3) Nebraska -8.5
4) Kansas State 4.5
5) Iowa State -2
6) Colorado -1.5

Big 12 South
1) Oklahoma -41.5
2) Texas -24.5
3) Oklahoma State 18.5
4) Texas Tech -13.5
5) Baylor -12
6) Texas A&M -0

Analysis – What jumps off the page about the Big 12 is the disparity in the two divisions. Missouri is rated talent-wise on par with Baylor, who would quality as “cash for clunkers” in the Big 12 South. Texas brings back 16 starters including quarterback Colt McCoy, nevertheless, Oklahoma will score points with QB Sam Bradford and could be a great defensive team, while the Longhorns lost numbers in the defensive line. Oklahoma State should have similar season to a year ago, with all its offense. The Big 12 North looks like winner by default and Texas A&M is the first team in four years I’ve had that doesn’t rate a player with any All-Big 12 potential. Oddmakers will have their hands full trying to find right numbers when North meets South.

WAC
1) Boise State -31.5
2) Nevada -28.5
3) Louisiana Tech-24
4) Fresno State -18.5
5) San Jose State -16.5
6) Hawaii -9.5
7) Idaho -7.5
8) New Mexico State -7.5
9) Utah State -6

Analysis- The numbers are a bit of fooler, since Boise State has easily more overall talent than any other team in the WAC, just not all-league material everywhere. That is actually good for the WAC and Nevada is the one team that could upset the Broncos, with QB Colin Kaepernick leading explosive offense behind a very good offensive line and arguably the best D-line in the conference. Louisiana Tech is going the right direct under coach Derek Dooley, having moved from seventh to third in talent outlook in three years. These Bulldogs have definite Play On potential in 2009. Maybe Fresno State should become independent, since coach Pat Hill seems to focus on those contests more anyway, for a program that looks to have stalled and is stellar Play Against conference club.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina -26.5
2) Southern Miss -23.5
3) Marshall -18
4) Central Florida -9.5
5) Memphis -8.5
6) UAB -8

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston -17
2) Tulsa -13
3) UTEP -6.5
4) SMU -5
5) Tulane -4.5
6) Rice -3.5

Analysis- East Carolina and Southern Miss are the class of C-USA and should have intriguing battle. Coach Mark Snyder is in hot water at Marshall with 16-31 (16-25-2 ATS) record and has the talent to have respectable season that could save his job. All the better teams in the West Division have offensive talent and are very thin on defense to stop anybody. After 7-1 record in conference and bowl experience, Rice returns to being Rice with exceptional skill players graduated. Still a conference to watch totals on because of lack of defense.

Big Ten
1) Penn State -29
2) Iowa -18
3) Wisconsin -15
4) Illinois -14.5
5) Ohio State -14
6) Michigan State -13.5
7) Michigan -13
8) Northwestern -9
9) Minnesota -8
10) Indiana -4
11) Purdue -3.5

Analysis- I spent more time on this conference than any other. Not because I lived most of my life in Big Ten country, but because I could not believe Ohio State graded out so low. The Buckeyes won’t finish this far down in the standings, as talented players coach Jim Tressel recruited will step forward, possibly similar to the 2007 team that played LSU in the BCS title tilt. However, I’m not sure until the Buckeyes play, which those players will be. Iowa and Illinois both could be surprise teams if the Hawkeyes offense improves and the Fighting Illini come together beyond the defensive line. Wisconsin has players concentrated in certain areas and Michigan State is improving, still lacking qualities to really make a major move. Penn State, grading out this high made me think the Big Ten might be really weak this season, since the Nittany Lions suffered heavy losses, but have QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster in the fold. If instincts are correct, lots of dogs will cover.

Pac-10
1) USC -31
2) California -22
3) UCLA -17
4) Oregon State -16
5) Oregon -15
6) Arizona State -15
7) Arizona -11.5
8) Stanford -9
9) Washington -7
10) Washington State -1

Analysis – Listen closely, it’s the familiar beat of top level recruits beating the doors down to play at USC for coach Pete Carroll. While some talk that California might have closed the gap this season, the Trojans most difficult opponent the last several seasons has been complacency when you least expect it, which suggests the Bears don’t fit the mold. UCLA has definite Play On potential after losing 44-man starts last season and its quarterback play couldn’t have been worse. Watch the Bruins in 2009. This is league devoid of renowned quarterback play it appears. Most teams’ fortunes (and sports bettors) will rise and fall with how well their signal callers do in making plays.

SEC East
1) Florida -35
2) Georgia -16
3) Tennessee -11
4) Kentucky -8
5) South Carolina -3.5
6) Vanderbilt-2

SEC West
1) Alabama -22
2) LSU -16.5
3) Mississippi -13
4) Arkansas -7.5
5) Auburn -6
6) Mississippi State -2

Analysis – There is an 800-pound gorilla in the SEC and everyone is trying to figure how to knock it off. Only Florida seems capable of beating Florida, in what could be somewhat of a down year for the SEC, maybe unfairly compared to the Gators squad. Georgia and Tennessee look eons away from matching up. This might be the end of the line for Steve Spurrier in Columbia, not being able to work recruiting magic to bring in high-caliber players to compete, especially on offense. Ole Miss is mildly popular pick to win the SEC West, but both Alabama and LSU have more talented players, with the Rebels better at skill positions. It’s shocking to see how far Auburn has slipped this fast from ability perspective. The SEC has several one-sided crazy against the spread rivalries that make little sense and unless you play and win.

MAC-East
1) Buffalo -20.5
2) Temple -12
3) Akron -10
4) Ohio U -7.5
5) Bowling Green -7
6) Kent State -7
7) Miami-O -0.5

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan -25
2) Western Michigan -17
3) Ball State -15
4) Northern Illinois -12
5) Toledo -6.5
6) Eastern Michigan -4.5

Analysis- Buffalo caught more than their fair share of breaks in winning the MAC in 2008. Whether they will have anywhere close to the same success is debatable, yet no arguing head coach Turner Gill has done a fine job of adding players that can compete at this level. The rest of the MAC East teams are fairly close outside of Miami-O and a startling winner could come forward, just like Buffalo did. Central and Western Michigan are head and shoulders above the MAC West pack with good talent around superior quarterbacks Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller respectively. The MAC’s better teams usually cover spreads and the weaker teams fail to do so.

Sun Belt
1) Troy -33
2) Arkansas State -21
3) Florida Atlantic -20
4) UL-Monroe -20
5) Louisiana – Lafayette -17
6) Florida International -16.5
7) Middle Tenn. State -13
8) North Texas -6
9) Western Kentucky -1

Analysis- What separates Troy from the competition is incoming quality players ready to move into starting spots after seeing action the previous year. These replacements help keep the Trojans near the top of the Sun Belt standings under coach Larry Blakeney. From talent standpoint, the standings in the SBC could go many ways in slots 2-7, with these teams fairly balanced. What Western Kentucky brings to the party will be worth watching in their first season of conference play. Road teams have often been the best wager in conference action.