Suns seek to avoid bring burned by Lakers

You have to give Ron-Ron credit, of the 10 players on the floor watching Kobe Bryant’s shot attempt to win another game, he was the only that realized it was going to land short of its destination, ran towards the ball, grabbed it and put in the basket to set off wild celebration by the ultra-cool movie and TV stars who realized this wasn’t scripted.

Ron Artest saved the day despite faulty vision, “I thought Kobe got fouled on the shot, so I figured it was going to be short,” Artest said. “And it was a little short.”

The series moves to its first elimination matchup and Phoenix made be down, but they certainly are not out.

As the new Philadelphia 76ers coach and analyst Doug Collins correctly pointed out, it felt like the Lakers were ahead by 15 points when they led by just eight midway thru the fourth quarter.

Coach Phil Jackson made a series of key adjustments before Game 5, running unbalanced overload against the Phoenix zone and running cutters weakside once the ball was passed into the lane area. The Suns tried a 1-3-1 changeup, but players and coaches at this level crave up a cheap gimmick like that in no time.

Lamar Odom returned to being aggressive and he and Derek Fisher drove thru the Phoenix zone like “CHIPS” with traffic stopped. All this led to a procession of layups and easy buckets.
Coach Alvin Gentry’s zone isn’t designed to disable the Los Angeles, rather to hopefully force up bad shot attempts along with normal misses. The Lakers will head to the sun drenched desert 13-4 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season.

The final minutes of Game 5 spoke loudly about both teams. Phoenix was unwilling to quit, especially Steve Nash. The Lakers had taken away aspects of the Canadien’s ability to use the screen and roll effectively, by jumping big men at him and setting up “wall” with Derek Fisher going underneath. Upon his return in the final minutes, Nash took matters into his own hands by taking and making shots, which caused vacillation by the Lakers bigs and gave him just enough room to operate.

Overall Los Angeles may be taller, but lack the lateral quickness to rotate back if Nash goes into the Lakers forest of tall timber. L.A. also showed a common flaw of this team, similar to the one that cost them to lose to Boston in the finals two years ago, a killer instinct. Artest’s ridiculous three-point attempt and other less the precise offensive sets enabled the more determined team late in the contest to almost steal one.

The Suns are 11-3 ATS at home off a road loss and need a few elements to occur to force a Memorial Day matchup.

Amare Stoudemire needs another bust-out effort like Game 3. A total of 40+ points isn’t required, however that same type of aggressiveness and rebounding desire is. Phoenix is going to shoot three-pointers regardless, thus the number made isn’t as important as the percentage, which has to be above 30 percent.

Channing Frye and Jared Dudley have found a comfortable rhythm in the West Finals; however Leandro Barbosa and Goran Dragic cannot be outscored by Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic like they were in the last contest (7-5).

The Suns are 1.5-point pick and are 9-1 ATS at U.S. Airways Arena after a loss by six points or less. The last game saw the first total go below the number in the series and the home team fail to cover. The oddsmakers have adjusted the total downward to 216, nevertheless Los Angeles is 7-0 OVER in the purple uniforms after allowing 100 points or more in exactly two straight tilts and Phoenix is 15-5 OVER at Planet Orange versus good shooting teams making 46 or more of their shots since the midpoint of the season the previous two years.

Game Six has been moved up to 8:30 Eastern on TNT as the Lakers try to close out the series. They are away 17-6 ATS away from home having lost two of their last three games.

Lakers attempt to regain upper hand

What’s the old saying, “When mama’s not happy, nobody’s happy”. A form of that saying is taking place in the Los Angeles Lakers locker room, with Kobe Bryant taking the place of mama.

“We have to play with a sense of urgency,” Bryant said after his team lost in the desert for second time, “and understand this team can beat us.”

Kobe, when asked what was wrong, didn’t mince words and tersely stated his feelings. “We lost the game,” Bryant said, “because our defense sucked.

“Our focus was on the other side of the floor, which doesn’t win championships. So we need to get back to ground zero when it comes to that.”

That’s the conundrum with the 2009-10 Lakers squad, every good stretch of basketball means “Margaritaville” and the passion and intensity necessary dwindles with prosperity.

Bryant had 74 points, 21 assists and 16 rebounds in two games in downtown Phoenix, but didn’t get enough assistance from his supporting cast.

“Kobe had a great game,” Lamar Odom said about Game 4. “Too bad we weren’t able to come along with him.”

Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where they are 41-7 (21-26-1 ATS) this season and needs to reestablish control of the series which is tied at 2-2.

The Lakers are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this year and while Kobe is complaining about the defensive effort, other wonder if the Suns zone defense has gotten into the heads of L.A. players.

"It's the zone," Lakers center Andrew Bynum admitted. "We're settling for outside jump shots. They were out there moving that ball, they were confident playing at home and they really just shot the ball well. They had everybody spaced out so everybody's running around."

Though, as coach Phil Jackson pointed out, his team has shot 48.3 and 49.5 percent in the last two losses while averaging 107.5 points per game, but does some of the hesitation on the Lakers offense carry over unto the defensive end, causing lapses in concentration for a club not known for “Terminator” single-mindedness.

What the Lakers zone offense has also lacked is getting the ball into high post consistently, with cutters running baseline or weakside cutters slashing to the rim. While Ron Artest is still a fine defensive player, the loss of Trevor Ariza hurts the Lakers in this situation, since he has greater quickness, understands how to cut more effectively to the basket and is a more consistent three-point shooter than Artest.

Phoenix is bubbling with confidence and is 14-6 ATS in road encounters after a combined score of 205 points or more in a trio of tilts this season. Channing Frye found his misplaced jump shot and the Suns reserves lambasted the Lakers bench 54-20 after being mildly ineffective for the first three games. "The bench played fantastic," the Suns' Steve Nash said.

Coach Alvin Gentry is earning his coaching “onions” as he left his bench players in the game for almost nine minutes of the final quarter, since they had produced 18-3 run, essentially putting Los Angeles away.

"We believe in those guys and they really believe in themselves," Gentry said. "I thought they were much better defensively than they were offensively, and they were great offensively."

Though no Phoenix player would publicly admit this, they know a Game 5 upset gives them best chance to win the series with Saturday’s conflict back at Planet Orange. A Game 7 win in L.A. would a monumental task to pull off for Phoenix.

Sportsbooks have the Lakers as 7.5-point pick, with total of 218. Pau Gasol and the rest of his teammates have to play like they did during eight-game postseason winning streak (7-1 ATS) and they are 18-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. The Suns are 33-14 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and will have to solve the Los Angeles team in the yellow uniforms since they are 1-7 and 2-6 ATS in L.A.

TNT continues with the series at 9:00 Eastern and the Lake Show is 8-0 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.

Home Rules in NBA West Finals

People tend to hear and then add their own personal twist to what they just listened to, which ultimately tends to change or exaggerate the original topic. The Phoenix Suns had gone from a terrible defense team to one that was competent after the All-Star break this season. The more games Phoenix won and their players and coaches talked about improved defense being the difference, the more the media and public bought into it.

After holding Portland and San Antonio to 95.9 points per game in their first two series triumphs, the mantra was viewed as the new and improved Phoenix Suns.

The Los Angeles Lakers being more talented, with better offensive weapons, quickly put Alan Gentry’s team more into proper perspective, averaging 126 points in the first two games against the Suns.

Gentry is an affable coach, quick to give praise to his team and at least publicly, measures his disappointment when he sees a lack of effort or execution.

For Game 3, Gentry knew a couple of areas that needed immediate improvement.

He started with realizing his club was no match to play the Lakers straight-up defensively and that doubling different L.A. players was failing as badly as British Petroleum’s attempt to solve the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentry knew his team was still below average defensively, but was capable of making SOME stops, which might be enough to knock off the Lakers if the offense continued to be productive.
The head coach and assistant coaches went to a zone defense, which took Kobe Bryant and his teammates out of the triangle offense. Gentry and his staff hoped Los Angeles might become content to fire away from long range and kept his fingers crossed they wouldn’t bury too many. Though the Lakers made nine three-point baskets, it took them 32 attempts to reach that level, lowering their record to 7-3 ATS as road underdogs.

Offensively, Phoenix got aggressive taking the ball to the basket. Forget the talk the Lakers being Lemuel Gulliver from the book “Gulliver’s Travels”, where he washed ashore after a shipwreck and was captured by the people Lilliput (the Suns were bring characterized as the same size as Lilliputians), being one-twelfth the size of a normal human being.

The Suns went at their “giant” foes with abandon and ended up shooting 42 free throws (37 made) to their counterpart’s smallish total of 20. The 118-109 victory brought Phoenix back into the series and gave them hope for the next contest where they are 37-10 and 29-16-2 ATS.
Two main players on the floor changed the direction of the series. Amare Stoudemire was virtually unstoppable with 42 points and 11 rebounds and Lamar Odom returned to the planet earth, with 10 points on 4-14 shooting and had as many fouls as rebounds (6).

Though it probably won’t show in Game 4, Los Angeles has had ample rest, however another loss in the desert could make the series a far greater challenge, forced to play every other day, where they are 4-12 ATS with one day off.

The money is mostly riding on the Lakers, now a one-point favorite after being a 1.5-point underdog to open, with the total higher yet again at 222 after three straight Over’s.

Kobe and company are 18-7 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive contests and 23-12 OVER having won two of their last three games this season. Phoenix will try and square up the series and is 22-8 ATS after a tilt where both teams scored 105 points or more. The team with shaggy-haired point guard and fractured nose is 41-22 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season.

TNT will against provide this West Finals conflict starting at 9:00 Eastern with coaching adjustments very important. The home team is on 8-1 ATS run between these Pacific Division competitors.

Suns need to play D-Fence

Arizona has been in the news quite a bit lately and various government agencies have been under attack. In response to this, they have become downright defensive, which is something Suns fans are looking for from their team playing at home trailing the Los Angeles Lakers 2-0.

Phoenix has willing approved 128 and 124 points to the Lakers in the first two supposed conflicts with Los Angeles in the Western Finals, which might be considered passable if this was an old-school ABA contest or an All-Star clash. The problem is that neither is true, and the Lakers have scored more than George Clooney and Brad Pitt in their younger days.
Nothing has worked on the defensive end for the Suns that even coach Alvin Gentry let his guard down after Game 2.

"I'm open for suggestions," Gentry said on his way out of the interview room late Wednesday night.

"Even from the media."

A better place to start is with his players. With all the talk of who is or is not legal in the Grand Canyon state, Gentry has to convince his players that getting up and guarding your man is perfectly legal, but it doesn’t do much good to let the player you are supposed to be guarding to around you like a bull and matador confrontation, in which the outcome is you are gored for another basket.

"Every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down," Gentry said, "they go somewhere else."

Phoenix has tried to double Kobe Bryant; he passes to open man, while still scoring enough points himself. The Suns put two players on Pau Gasol on the paint, yet at 7’0 holding the ball over his head looking for open teammate, he looks like an eighth grader playing keep away from a group of first graders. Gasol has found Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and others effortlessly.
Things have gotten so bad for Phoenix even Jordan Farmar (13.5 points per game) and Shannon Brown (10.0 PPG) have looked like they could start for any of lottery teams the way they have scored in this series.

“Well, what can you say?" Gentry said. "We are just having a hard time. We can't slow them down. I thought we played well offensively, but every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down, they go somewhere else.

“And, you know, you do a great job on Kobe, and I thought we did. Then they go to Pau and we double-team Pau and there's Lamar, and we get it out of Lamar's hand and Jordan Farmar makes shots. And there's a reason they're the world champs. There's a good reason they're the world champs."

The Suns return home where they are 36-10, 28-16-2 ATS and have to find answers quickly. Maybe its wear Amare Stoudemire glasses that are far-sighted so they have to get closer to guard the players in purple.

What Phoenix has to do more than anything is play team defense. It’s obvious the Suns are not very sound doubling players on continual basis; instead each player has to make it his responsibility to guard his own man. If Kobe scores 50 or even 60 so be it, you guard your man and box-out on the boards.

Make the Lakers uncomfortable, they’ve played like a bunch of guys having a having a good time walking along Santa Monica beach. Throw live snakes on the floor before the game to get their attention, prove you mean business and make them understand from the start this isn’t going to be a vacation in the desert.

"You saw what the Thunder (Oklahoma City) did," Jared Dudley said. "That's our mindset."

Oddsmakers have Phoenix as 1.5-point favorites and has to take advantage of the crowd and make shots to make L.A. unsettled. They are 1-8 ATS in road games when their opponents make 39 to 45 percent of their three-pointers. The Suns have to make the Lakers pay for their limited defensive pressure and are 24-7 ATS vs. defensive teams forcing 14 or less turnovers a game the second half of this season.

Those doing sports betting presently anticipate there is almost no ceiling on the total that has sky-rocketed to 219 and Steve Nash’s pals need a lower scoring contest and they are 20-10 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. Kobe and company have the ability to shift gears and are 7-0 UNDER on the road after covering the spread in two or more consecutive times.

TNT has what is basically a do-or-die tilt for the Suns at 8:30 Eastern and they are 15-5 ATS at Planet Orange having lost two of their last three games.

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Wednesday's material of note

Goodness, another 3-0 day makes our record 51-23, 68.9 percent for last 74 choices. The Top Trend is in the heart of Texas and the LCC consensus plays have been saucier than Megan Fox’s language in recent interview. We have systems article about baseball, check out the Phillies one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I noticed today - Online sports betting oddsmakers were impressed with how easily the Lakers scored against Phoenix in totaling 128 points on 58 percent shooting. Los Angeles wasn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut with the Suns shooting 49.8 percent; however don’t you wonder just a little bit about the total moving SIX points from Game 1 to Game 2 to 216?

How bad are things in Brew Town? Milwaukee has lost eight straight and despite their history of dominating Pittsburgh, they have fallen from -170 opening money line road favorite and to -147 or less at most sportsbooks.

The Atlanta Braves began the day as -150 home favorites, but have sunk to -130 or lower against Cincinnati. The first place Reds are 12-4 playing against a team with a losing record this season and finding all kinds of different ways to win. Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami is 0-6 with 5.79 and he and Atlanta are 4-15 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

Scuffling Seattle was supposed to be an AL West contender and are if you hold the newspaper upside down. The Mariners are -120 choice down from -140 and just can’t get out of their own way with 6-18 record after a loss this season.

The Giants and Diamondbacks division matchup started at nine and at last look is up to Un10. Plenty of reasons for sports bettors to believe this will come true since San Fran starter Todd Wellemeyer has 9.49 road ERA and though Ian Kennedy has been more effective (3.58 ERA) for Arizona, unless he’s able to pitch complete game, the Snakes bullpen will enter the contest with outrageous 7.97 earned run average this season.

MLB Betting Nuggets

Play on teams like Philadelphia against a -1.5 run line, who are good NL offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game against a quality starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), after allowing two runs or less two straight games. (40-13 L5Y)

Toronto is 9-1 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning by 1.8 runs per game.

Tom Gorzelanny of the Cubs is 12-0 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons, with average total score of 10.9 RPG.

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Free Baseball System -1) See system article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Texas Rangers are 13-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is 8-0 behind the Phillies tonight and FYI -14-3 on the Suns with the points.

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Better bring shades for Suns and Lakers in Game 2

One of the wonderful aspects of visiting Tinsel Town is you never know when the stars will be out. You could be standing in line at legendary Pink’s Hot Dogs or roast beef haven Phillipes and Sandra Bullock or Tom Hanks might be waiting in line with you. The same can also be true on the hardwood, where every now and again the Los Angeles Lakers and their stars give a memorable performance at the Staples Center.

There is always a bit of the unknown when a NBA team has a long layoff, you can never be sure what it means good or bad. The Orlando Magic appeared to be effected negatively with their extra time off against Boston, but the Lakers played refreshed and looked better than a Santa Monica sunset.

Kobe Bryant was in “the zone” scoring 40 points on 23 shot attempts. Bryant appeared more than any other L.A. player to have benefitted from the down time. "My legs benefited a lot," Bryant said. "I was able to take some time off and just get stronger, get my legs stronger, body stronger."

However, Bryant wasn’t the only Lakers player that played rejuvenated and Phil Jackson’s squad proved just how challenging they are to defeat when they all committed to common goal.

Lamar Odom had 19 points and 19 boards (seven on offense) and was dialed in throughout.
Paul Gasol was 10 for 13 shooting, even converting on a couple of almost impossible buckets for a man his size. Derek Fisher was defensively possessed in staying with Steve Nash and though he has 13 assists, Fisher and his teammates limited the former MVP to 13 points on only 10 shots.

Two keys for Phoenix coming into the series were rebounding and bench strength. The Suns were outrebounded by eight and their reserves were out-pointed 44-35 in losing by 21.

"They played great, one of the best games I've seen them play in the playoffs this season," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "Kobe kind of controlled the whole game. I thought we could have withstood the game that he had ... but when he's making his jumper like that, there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

Phoenix is going to have to play much better defense as L.A. was fearless doing what they wanted offensively. (Shannon Brown’s dunk attempt for example) The Suns are 31-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season and if Kobe stays percolating, they must negate the rest of his teammates since you aren’t going to be on the winning side permitting 58 percent shooting.

“They're probably going to continue to be taller than us as the series goes on, so we've got to ... make everything as tough as possible," Steve Nash wryly stated. "We played hard, but we didn't make enough shots, and we had a few too many breakdowns."

Subtract Grant Hill and the other four Phoenix starters shot 59.5 percent, the issue was they generated only 42 attempts. If the Suns expect to tie series and move spread record to 20-10 after one or more losses, the starters have to get more shots at the rim and Channing Frye and Jared Dudley can’t put up combined 2 for 13 numbers.

Phoenix is a seven-point underdogs, with total leaping to 216. For those that use online sports betting it’s impossible to ignore the Lakers are 11-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s and 17-6 against the spread in home games when playing only their second game in week. Coach Jackson’s club is 13-4 UNDER after a wipeout win by 20 points or more.

TNT will again have the coverage of Game 2 from LaLa-Land at 9:00 Eastern with the desert dogs 14-4 UNDER after they allowed a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher.

Tuesday's Top Plays

The wins just keep coming at 3Daily Winners as we were 3-0 yesterday taking us to 48-23, 67.6 percent on this hot streak. The Free Play and the Top Trend are the same team and they have impressive numbers. Our Best System is over 80 percent the last 13 years and really rocking at 88 percent the last three. Good Luck

What I thought today – If the Lakers played likes they did in Game 1 against Phoenix the rest of the playoffs, they could save a lot of time and money and just give them the trophy now. It is a thing of beauty to watch an elite player in any sport “locked in” like Kobe Bryant was last night.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like the Dodgers with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the last three years this little system is 22-3.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 19-0 in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection was 8-0 behind Tampa Bay as ML or RL play but I won’t count that because the game is over. Their next best choice was the Cubs at 9-1.

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NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Phoenix

Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA.

Both those assessments have proven correct, however one will be kicked to the curb with the West Finals at hand. Here is a look at what each team has to do to reach the The Finals.

One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS and were like Whitney Houston’s recent concert tour, very unimpressive. More than one sports fan believed Oklahoma City had a fair shot to upset Los Angeles in the first round and after they suffered 21-point loss to the Thunder to tie the series at two, that belief no longer seemed so far-fetched.

However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.

I apologize in advance, but there is not getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.

L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.

Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.

Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.

Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.

That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.

Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.

Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.

Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.

Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14. With how ineffective the L.A. bench is, they need to outscore them nightly by 15 or more points, which place the Suns in far more advantageous spot and could mean heavier minutes for Lakers regulars, this might matter later in the series.

It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.

Jackson pulled out his clichéd “zen master” card saying Nash carry’s the ball (and Michael Jordan did what in Chicago when Phil was there), but he picked the wrong guy in Nash.

"It's news to me. I'm fortunate. I don't know if I've been called for a carry yet,'' he said after the Suns practiced Saturday, then he added straight-faced: "I've never heard anyone accuse me of carrying it. I mean, the best coach in the league Greg Popovich (of San Antonio) didn't have a problem with it last week.''(Nice subtle rip on the Zen-ster)

As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.

(In my best NBA analyst voice and following all spoken clichés) At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, (I'm surprised California government officials are letting the Lakers play in Zona, since Sherrif Joe will want to see Gasol's papers) gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.

3Daily Winners Pick- L.A. Lakers (-350) in seven over Phoenix (+290)

Cavs and Suns look to do their thang on Mother's Day

Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.

Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC

At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.

“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.

The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.

“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”

Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.

Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.

Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT

It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.

Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.

The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.

San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked.
In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.

On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.

"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.

The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.

Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.

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NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

It's Cinco de Mayo - Stay thirsty my friends

Oh yea, that more like it, two for Tuesday. For Cinco de Mayo (wearing my new Los Suns jersey) have an MLB Super System that is 84.1 percent. The Top Trend is beauty and Paul Buck will have Free Pick before you know it, like right now. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Hey Atlanta, just a heads up. The second round of the playoffs has started. Yea, I know you are a bit tuckered out from seven games against inferior Milwaukee team and it would have been nice to take nap every day with your favorite blanket like Orlando did after sweeping the Jordan’s.

Well I checked with the NBA and everyone on your team gets a merit badge for attending Game 1. Oh sure you lost by 43, it happens. Don’t worry about shooting 34.6 percent, at least Josh Smith was 7-14 and he got a lollipop from the trainer for doing his best like a good boy.

For your next game against the Magic, I like to make one small suggestion, when the coach yells “Box out” that means you get in front of you man, not stand behind him and get out-rebounded by 18.

So you Hawks, you get ready to do your best and don’t worry about the outcome, because the most important things in life is trying hard and updating your Twitter and Facebook accounts.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like the Halos with a money line of +100 to +150, being an AL team with a low on-base percentage of .320 or worse, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a scary bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Over the last five seasons this systems calculates at 37-7.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Houston Astros are 1-12 off consecutive losses.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is on the Chicago Cubs in the Steel City.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Spurs must control tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.
Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.

That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

Spurs vs Suns Series Preview

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about each other. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been Avis to the Spurs Hertz, with Phoenix having been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war.

(3)Phoenix vs (7) San Antonio

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.
The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.
Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

3Daily Winners Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

Dallas and Portland looking to survive

The Mavericks and Trailblazers enter their respective contests Thursday with a singular thought, force a Game 7. Dallas passed their first test, routing San Antonio at home, now they will have to elevate their game to stave off elimination as the No. 2 seed in the West. Portland suffered their third “Whose your daddy” pasting by Phoenix Monday night and will try and extend series by eclipsing the Suns by playing at slower pace.

Coaching could be the key

Forget the players from Dallas and San Antonio for a second and think about the two coaches. No coach is going to win unless he has the players, however when the talent is fairly equally distributed, the ability to make adjustments is tantamount.

Rick Carlisle is a good NBA coached, seemingly well-liked and has never won a thing. Greg Popovich is abrasive, a smart-aleck at times and has won four NBA championships.

While this might not be Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley in the 2006 NBA Finals in terms of mismatches it certainly in the neighborhood. More like Ted Danson as Sam Malone (great in Cheers) against his John “Becker” character (good, not great).

Carlisle and his staff deserve props for making adjustments and better utilizing the talent owner Mark Cuban traded for. Brendan Haywood was inserted into the starting lineup Tuesday evening and the offense frequently went thru him and having played with Caron Butler in Washington, the two clicked as Butler scored a career playoff-high of 35 points in 103-81 blowout.

“That was fun,” Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki said and his team is 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season.

Coach Popovich was displeased with what he saw from his squad and said so, “Mostly it was the case of they came with the mental and physical toughness, and our starting group wasn’t very good in either category”

San Antonio is 16-5 ATS at home after a loss by 20 points and Popovich must first get his team back in the proper frame of mind and do a better job in going from the defensive to offensive end, moving the ball up the floor quicker before the bigger Dallas team can be more physical and stunt their flow.

The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites with total of 191 at Bookmaker.com and they are on 9-2-1 ATS rollout and are 22-9 UNDER after four or more consecutive Under’s, which has been the case lately in this series. Dallas will attempt to counter being 4-0-1 ATS after double digit victory and the Mavs are 17-5 UNDER in road games having lost two of their last three.

Maybe the Spurs just had better players, but since Tim Duncan arrived in San Antonio, he and Popovich are 5-0 in seven-game series after building 3-1 lead. This isn’t Carlisle fault, but Dallas has never rallied down 3-1 in a series.

It’s about wins not point differential

Fifty years ago this fall, the New York Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates by 28 runs in the World Series and lost in seven games. Portland coach Nate McMillian might be wise to remind his team that history can be repeated, just on the hardwood instead of grass.

The Trailblazers has been blitzed three times by 29, 19 and 19 points, the latter two could have been much worse. Their triumphs have been by five and nine points respectively. “This series is crazy," Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge said. "We win; they win by 30."

Portland will try to force a seventh game playing at the Rose Garden and they are 13-3 ATS having lost three of their last four contests. "We'll be fine," point guard Andre Miller said after Monday's spanking. "We just have to think about one game. It's time to go home and take care of business."

The Phoenix demolition was capped by its reserves, which outscored the Blazers bench 55-23, led by Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. The duo had been mostly ineffective in this series, but they tallied 39 points between them (Frye-20, Dudley-19) in leading the onslaught.

“When they get going like that, we’re a really good team,” the Suns’ Steve Nash said. “I think it’s great for their confidence because we have a lot of confidence in them.” Phoenix raised their record to 28-13 ATS against defensive teams that allow 46 percent or higher shooting percentage.

The Suns are catching one point and are 7-3-1 ATS as Pick or road underdog since Jan. 31. This 3 vs. 6 matchup has seen the number fall below the total three times in a row and Portland is 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this year.

With the total at 201.5, Phoenix is 8-2-1 UNDER after a 10 or more point conquest and the Trailblazers are 7-0-1 UNDER after losing by double digits.

TNT has both battles with the first game at 8:00 Eastern.

NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

Three NBA teams need tasty home cookin'

Over the next two days, the series switch to new locales with the home town fans clamoring for success from the guys in the short pants. A couple of the teams are in desperate straits and need to make something happen or they can start making summer vacation plans. One other squad doesn’t have its best player however can take the series lead with a victory before its loud and proud fans.

Cleveland at Chicago 7:00E TNT

The Bulls played the Cavaliers even for three quarters, unfortunately professional basketball is a four quarters contest and for those that can’t stand the NBA, saying you only have to watch the last quarter, they were nodding their head with pride about Game 2.

Chicago was tied after three quarters but was outscored 35-25 in the final 12 minutes, thanks to LeBron James doing his best Mariano Rivera impression as the closer. (James is well-known Yankees fan) James scored 15 of his 40 points in the final stanza, ruining the Bulls upset bid.
“They call me the closer every time I come in the fourth quarter,” James said. “It’s my time to put the game away or do what I do best and that’s try to close the game the right way.” Cleveland is 14-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

Chicago will receive the energy from its home fans and the Bulls better start rampage from the opening tip, since nobody expects the Bulls to win four of the next five games. One Chi-Town player enduring himself to the locals is Joakim Noah, whose been a force on both ends of the floor and talking a little trash about Cleveland. He’s more than ready for next assignment. (Note picture- Noah not fazed by Zydrunas Ilgauskas Lithuanian mind-probe)

We can't get discouraged," Noah said. "They did what they were supposed to do. We'll have our fans ready to go for the next game and we'll be ready to go on Thursday."

The Bulls are a four-point underdog, with total of 193 and are 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses. Chicago is 13-4 UNDER playing with two days rest this season.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E TNT

This is all fun and new for the Thunder, being in the postseason for the first time as members from the Sooner State. Oklahoma City lost both games to the defending champion L. A. Lakers, but they are far from discouraged.

"I think that our offense was phenomenal," Kevin Durant said. "Our energy on a defensive end was phenomenal. Of course you cannot play perfect defense an entire game. We got a lot of offensive, rebounds and we played hard.

Of course the next step in the progression is actually winning a game and the Thunder gives the impression they are well-equipped to do so. OKC is 14-5 ATS off a road loss and Bookmaker.com has installed them as 3.5-point favorites.

Thunder fans have enjoyed this young team’s rise all year and view this as the beginning of something much bigger and can hardly be disappointed no matter the outcome.

The Lakers were pushed to the end in Game 2, winning 95-92 as 5.5-point favorites, held to 37.5 percent shooting. Kobe Bryant returned to his usual self scoring 39 points, making 13 of 15 from the charity stripe. It’s a rare sight to see Los Angeles as an underdog, especially in a 1 vs 8 matchup and they are 33-18 ATS as a pooch and 10-2 UNDER in this role.

"We're going home to our crowd, which is gonna give us a lot of energy and we're gonna be ready to play," Jeff Green said Tuesday night. His team is 14-2 ATS after a contest with 15 or less assists this season.

Keep an eye on the total of 191.5 with Oklahoma City 12-2 UNDER at the Ford Center off a cover where they lost the game SU as an underdog.

Phoenix at Portland 10:00E NBA TV

Portland looked every bit like the underdog they were supposed to be, being man-handled by Phoenix 119-90 in Game 2 as 8.5-point underdogs. The news however is good on two fronts, a loss is still a loss whether it’s by one point or 29 and the Trailblazers are returning home.

We got a win," Portland guard Andre Miller said. "You don't want to lose like that any time, but we still are motivated. This is a seven-game series. (The Suns) did their job tonight, but we got a game, and it's a series. Now we have to go and try to protect our home court." Portland is 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.

Phoenix can take pride in understanding and doing what it takes to win as they showed in last outing. They repeatedly ran the floor for easy transition buckets, forced Portland into missing shots with greater defensive intensity (38.2 percent) and spread the ball around with Jason Richardson and Grant Hill being key figures in the victory.

“We were just more aggressive getting the ball up the floor and moving bodies around so they weren’t set,” Steve Nash said, “and they weren’t able to zone it up as well.” That raised the Suns record to 14-4 ATS playing against a team with 60-70 winning percentage this campaign.

Game 3 opened as Pick and Portland has moved to one point underdog with 7-19 ATS record at the Rose Garden after a loss by 10 points or more.

Heat and Suns have to bring A-Game

While the biggest story surrounding game two between Miami and Boston centers around the Kevin Garnett suspension, Heat players know the real issue involves shooting 39.8 percent, scoring 76 points and committing 22 turnovers. They do that again they jump into 0-2 hole they helped dig. At least Miami hasn’t lost at home, something Phoenix can’t say. The Suns players should have listened to local talk radio, as their fans assumed they would be mature and take the game to the short-handed Portland. Instead, they waltzed around and let the Trailblazers steal opening game. Two NBA teams, two NBA situations, the Heat and Suns must address.

Miami at Boston 8:00E TNT

The Heat knew what to expect against Boston, they had already lost to them three times this season, yet once again they failed to find the answer. Dwayne Wade can win a game or possibly even two with the right set of circumstances; however he can’t go at it alone to win a series.

Boston strategy is to do the best they can with Wade defensively, but more importantly, don’t let anyone else become a factor. Other than the former Marquette product, no other Miami player has scored 20 points this season against the Celtics and in series opener, Quentin Richardson was the only other player to reach double digits (15 points).

Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said, "We just did not show a lot of composure. ... To play to that kind of pressure, a little bit of duress, a little bit of adversity, we did not respond well to it." His club is 6-19 ATS is road encounters revenging four or more losses to same opponent.
Boston will miss KG, but coach Doc Rivers will do what he does best, rally the troops for key moments.

“Kevin also facilitates a lot of offense. In the first game, a lot of our open shots came off Kevin being involved in the play. That’s my biggest concern. You’re losing 15 points and, more importantly, you’re losing all the picks, all the postups where they had to trap. That’s big. We’re going to have to try to find some points somewhere.” Rivers also talked about Garnett’s defensive energy and will present this as challenge to Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace and others to pitch in.

Bookmaker.com saw Boston go off as 4.5-point in the first matchup and took revenge and no Garnett into consideration and dropped the Celtics to two-point choice, with the wagering public taking it a step further. The Celtics are now listed as single point home favorites, with steady total of 179.

Boston has won six straight over Miami at home (3-3 ATS) yet is merely 13-26-2 ATS as a home favorite and 21-12 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season. The Heat is going to have to force the tempo and make shots. They are 8-0 OVER off a road loss scoring less than 80 points, winning by 7.8 points per game.

Portland at Phoenix 10:00E NBA-TV

The clues were there and the intelligent sports bettor spotted them and played Portland in Game 1. Phoenix was an eight-point favorite with total of 204, suggesting the Suns should have won first round opening tilt 106-98. The score relating to the Trailblazers exactly matched their season total home and away. Phoenix however averages 110.1 points a game and over 112 at home. The numbers didn’t add up and Portland got the upset.

Every typical flaw the Suns have was exposed by outstanding game plan by coach Nate McMillian.

Defensively they pressured Steve Nash early in the shot clock, making him yo-yo the dribble and eat up time. Phoenix prefers to get right into offense and most times they didn’t get anything started until 15 or less seconds. They doubled Amare Stoudemire wherever possible and he needed 19 shots to accumulate 18 points.

On offense, Portland ran when given the opportunity and Andre Miller kept driving to the rim and Phoenix had no answer. This allowed Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge to score in deep. A 14-2 and 11-4-1 ATS close to the season meant nothing after four quarters of playoff basketball for coach Alvin Gentry’s squad.

Nash was candid about how his team played, even if it seemed unusual. “We didn’t quite have the spirit or the energy collectively that we had in the last few games of the regular season,” Nash said. “Sometimes that happens.”

When asked about the importance of this being playoff time he responded, “You can never predict. I mean, I thought we played hard. I just thought we didn’t quite have that spark that we needed,” he said. “I don’t know— biorhythms.”

Phoenix’ compelling season could be all but over with another loss and they are 8-1 ATS at home after a defeat by six points or less this season. The Suns are 8.5-point faves with total of 204.5 and they are 41-24 OVER revenging a same season failure the last three seasons.

Portland has the second best road record in the NBA at 25-17 (26-14-2 ATS) and is 18-6 ATS off a road win this season. It will be imperative for the Blazers to again contain the tempo as assuredly the Suns will want to play at more aggressive pace and they are 21-8 UNDER as visitors when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

NBA Western Conference Series Outlook

In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

3DW Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

3DW Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

(4) Denver vs (5) Utah

It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)

The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah’s.

The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer’s fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan’s motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.

Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.

Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)

Last day of NBA regular season stuffed with intrigue

It’s the final day of the NBA regular season and rarely have so many questions been left up in the air to be determined. The specific fate of no less than nine teams has to be figured out before the playoffs begin, with eight of them moving on. Here is one-by-one game outlook at the various possibilities sports bettors have to consider.

New York at Toronto 8:00E MSG

Toronto ( 39-42) came with clutch effort at Detroit and needs to defeat New York at home and hope Chicago fails on the road to ensure third invitation to the playoffs in four years. The Raptors are fighting for bid without its best player Chris Bosh and are eight-point favorites according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Though Toronto needs the win, they are far from a safe bet with 4-12 ATS record at home in the second half of the season.

Chicago at Charlotte 8:00E

While V.P. of basketball operations John Paxson and coach Vinny Del Negro decide whether to use eight ounce or 16 ounce gloves in their rematch, the Chicago Bulls players have to win to get in the Eastern Conference postseason party. Bulls’ players have battled like Chicago management, winning nine of last 14 to be in this position and can close the deal with a victory. The Bulls (40-41) are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team like Charlotte (win percentage of 51% to 60%) this season. The Bobcats are already locked in to playing Orlando starting this weekend, but coach Larry Brown has vowed not to sit players because it wouldn’t be right and what the much-traveled Mr. Brown says can always be trusted (?).

Milwaukee at Boston 8:00E

The Bucks have found out about life without center Andrew Bogut the last two games and it is not pretty. Milwaukee has been easily defeated by Atlanta and Boston on their home floor and it doesn’t appear to be a coincidence the Bucks have shot under 40 percent in three of five games since the Aussie went on the injured list. Milwaukee can move up to fifth position with win over Celtics and Miami loss, but that would mean four more games with Boston. For tonight, the Bucks are 19-7 following a SU loss and are one-point underdogs.

New Jersey at Miami 8:00E YES

The Heat have been en fuego, winners of 11 of last 12 (7-4-1 ATS) and can wrap the No. 5 slot in the East with a triumph over non-combative New Jersey. Miami has made their own way since on March 1 they were in ninth place in the East, but 17-4 record has them poised to face bumbling Boston this upcoming weekend with a win, for club brimming with confidence. Miami is favored by 10 and is 8-2 ATS against opponent that surrendered 100 or more points in previous outing.

San Antonio at Dallas 8:00E

The Mavericks have won the Southwest Division and have one more bit of business left to complete. If Dallas is victorious over San Antonio, they capture the second seed in the West. A loss and Utah win drops them to third, which doesn’t sound like much, unless they would have to face the Jazz later in the playoffs. A Spurs loss would have them settle into seventh slot, which would place them right back in Dallas this weekend for first round of the postseason. The Spurs can avoid such a matchup with win and Portland loss, moving them to No. 6. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in last 14 outings and are 7.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix at Utah 10:30E ESPN

This is the lone straight forward conflict that will have both teams deciding fate in head to head battle. This contest is particularly important to Utah, since a victory means they win Northwest Division title, have third seed (at least) and open up at EnergySolutions Arena, where they are 32-8 and 26-12-2 ATS and domineering 20-2 (14-6-2 ATS) since Jan.6. A loss gives idle Denver the division crown and the Jazz fall to fifth place in the conference, which eliminates home court advantage. The Suns are blazing on 12-2 run (9-4-1 ATS) and locked up home court for first round with demolition of Denver last night. A win gives them third overall and means they wouldn’t face the Lakers until the conference finals should both teams advance that far. Almost forgot, a Utah win and Dallas loss has the Jazz really ending on a high note, moving to second seed with tiebreaker in their favor.

Golden State at Portland 10:30E

The Trail Blazers control their fate with a win over Golden State, wrapping up the sixth seed. That would be terrific, but Portland has potentially more pressing problems with guard Brandon Roy suffering torn meniscus in his knee, making his availability an issue going forward. Portland is a nine-point favorite with total of 215. The higher total should work to Blazers advantage as they are 17-6 ATS when they score 105 or more points this season. An upset loss to the Warriors and Spurs win drops Portland down a notch to seventh.