May's Best -Worst MLB Starters

With Super Saver winning the Kentucky Derby, this signals MLB enters its second month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining success, or lack of it, comes from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Beckett, Josh • 12-3
After a slow start, Beckett threw seven strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits and most importantly for him had 6-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Baltimore on May 2, which is about how he normally pitches this month.



Carmona, Fausto • 10-5
Since his breakout season of 2007, Carmona has struggled with mechanics, but has been more consistent in 2010. If he keeps the walks down, he should again have a good month even on a so-so club.
Hamels, Cole • 14-3
The left-hander has allowed too many meaty pitches in the hitting zone, (35 hits in 30.2 innings). Let’s see if the warmer weather helps Hamels get a better feel for curve and changeup.
Kazmir, Scott • 10-5
The last few seasons of arm miseries has robbed Kazmir of some velocity. For him to pitch at previous levels, he has to more consistent in the strike zone and pitch deeper into games, with six innings high water mark thus far. He could make marked improvement however this month, since he has 19 K’s in 21 innings in 2010.
Lilly, Ted • 12-6
The soft-tossing lefty has had one good and one bad outing in his return from the DL. In his second start, he lacked the usual bite on his breaking stuff and got racked. May is usually a solid month from Lilly, expect him to come thru.
Padilla, Vicente • 11-4
Vicente Padilla's right-elbow soreness should keep him out until at least the end of May, manager Joe Torre said Sunday. "He's better, he's feeling better, but not having thrown for a while, I don't see him helping us this month," Torre said. "That's not anything, I think, unusual."
Perez, Oliver • 8-4
Off their recent eight-game winning streak, the Mets could use Perez to have another good May to help their cause. Ability-wise Perez is a No.2-3 starter, but he too often can’t find the plate (14 walks in 20.2 innings this year). Certainly capable of big month.
Santana, Johan • 11-5
Santana’s first start of May was forgettable, being rocked by the Phillies. That however is not the norm and it is wiser to presume he bounces back to form and wins a number of games with normal run support.
Wellemeyer, Todd • 9-4
He’s the fifth starter on a deep staff in San Francisco. His early results have been below average, with but a couple of off days early in the month, Wellemeyer came out of the bullpen on May 2 and allowed no runs in three innings. Maybe this helps turn him around for May.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Davis, Doug • 4-10
Milwaukee took a flyer on Davis hoping he could at least be .500 pitcher. To date 8.87 ERA with no wins and has permitted 38 base bits in just 22.1 innings, ugh!
Lohse, Kyle • 5-11
Another reclamation project for the Cardinals brilliant pitching coach Dave Duncan. Doesn’t hit the 90’s much anymore with fastball, but Duncan has him using two-seam fastball which he sinks. When his slider and curve are not working, will get tattooed.
Meche, Gil • 6-12
Was supposed to be the ace in Kansas City coming over from Seattle and has been anything but. Meche has 10.13 ERA this season and he usually pitches worse in May, yikes!
Silva, Carlos • 3-10
Essentially innings-eater most of his career. Has started well with the Cubs (2-0, 2.90 ERA) thanks to having control (21 K’s-6W’s). History doesn’t suggest he will keep it up.

Doug Upstone of 3DailyWinners contributed to this article.

MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

Let's Rock

Good comeback from Sunday with 2-0 day. Today we are back to three plays and Sal has his Free Pick which was a winner on Monday. The Top Trend follows a certain Red Sox hurler and the Best System has to with a particular pitcher on a day of the week. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – The San Diego Padres scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and beat the Chicago Cubs 4-1 on Monday night. It's the fourth time this season that San Diego won a game that it trailed entering the ninth inning, tying the highest such total in the major leagues. (Thanks, Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Oakland with a money line of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start, playing on Tuesday. Not sure what the day of the week has to do with this, but 58-12, 82.9 percent isn’t anything to ignore.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are 14-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last two seasons, winning by 3.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was correct here yesterday and is 11-4 since Friday and views Florida as the right team to humiliate Houston.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks - Special NFL Preseason Offer

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Do these Big Underdogs have a shot?

The Tuesday offerings on the Major League schedule have four games with four significant underdogs. The reasons are varied as to why, but what sports bettors want to know is if these pooches have to chance to pull the upset, leading to a significant payday. Here is a breakdown of each large underdog’s chances.

Baltimore at New York

The Orioles are trying to rebuild again, this time going thru the draft and using their young players. Unfortunately, this to will take time and in the mean while, Baltimore (41-51, -7 units) fans are once asked to be patient. The Orioles lost a close 2-1 game last night against the Yankees, however doing pretty well only counts if you are an AIG employee, which entitles you to bonus no matter what. Baltimore is 2-23 on the road versus AL East opponents and after surrendering only four runs in last two games, the O’s are 4-17 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive contests over the last two seasons. Bookmaker.com has Baltimore as +165 money line road underdogs with Rich Hill (3-2, 7.22 ERA) facing the Yankees. How little do the oddmakers think of Baltimore, New York is starting Sergio Mitre, who last started a big league game in Sept. 2007. The Orioles chances are not so hot with 11-39 record as dogs of +150 or higher.

Boston at Texas

The Red Sox (55-37, +6.9) have lost three in a row to fall into a first place tie with the Yankees and baseball bettors like their chances of ending streak even more than oddsmakers. Texas (50-41, +10.4), who defeated Boston 6-3 last evening, opened as +135 home underdogs were swiftly taken to +155, presumably with believers seeing a real pitching mismatch. Josh Beckett (11-3, 3.35) is BoSox hurler and he’s 9-1 with 2.14 ERA in last 13 outings. Beckett and the Red Sox are 21-4 as a road favorite of -125 or more since last season and they will face Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter (1-1, 2.35). The 23-year Hunter looks more like a standup outside linebacker than a pitcher, throws a low 90’s sinker, though like most young pitchers has control issues. Give Texas a punchers chance since they are 11-4 as home dogs and Boston has scored three runs against the last five rookie starting pitchers they have seen this season.

San Francisco at Atlanta

San Francisco (50-42, +9.1) has not been an offensive juggernaut to begin with; ranking 27th in runs scored at 4.1. Lately, the Giants have not done much to improve that position, scoring 14 total runs in last six contests, causing them to lose four times. Chances are it won’t get a whole easier, since they are +185 underdogs facing Atlanta’s Derek Lowe (8-7, 4.40). San Francisco faced Lowe plenty of times when he was with the Dodgers and they haven’t scored on him in last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants will send rookie Ryan Sadowski (2-1, 1.00) up the hill and he’s shown good poise according to manager Bruce Boche. Trouble is San Fran is 8-19 as road underdog of +150 to +200. Atlanta (47-46, -6.3) has been hitting the ball, but is 8-19 after scoring seven runs or more two straight games. If the Giants can score early to build confidence and Sadowski finds early rhythm, San Francisco’s is bullpen capable of containing the Braves for upset.

Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers

The Reds (44-48, -1.3) have lost nine of 13 to fall into fifth place in the NL Central. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has sprung a leak except for Bronson Arroyo, conceding 78 runs in last nine losses. They don’t figure to improve with Homer Bailey (1-1, 6.43) pitching against the Dodgers (59-34, +18.6). Bailey is a former first round draft choice of the Reds. The Reds are losing patience with the 23-year, who is known as much for his silly stubbornness as his ability. Bailey and the Reds are 1-12 in games he has started the last two years. Cincy is a +175 road dog and would appear in a horrible situation with the Dodgers 31-12 as +110 or higher home favorites.

Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

Cubs and Phillies converge as hot teams

For many people, a trip to Washington, D.C. is a wonderful and historic adventure. The city has many great things to see and do and a short drive in several directions can further enhance the experience. For the Chicago Cubs, the four day excursion to out nation’s capitol turned out to be just the right kind of stimulus package needed to start the second half of the year.

The Cubs (47-43, -4.9 units) marched into woeful Washington and swept the Nationals in four games and have taken over second place in the NL Central, trailing St. Louis by two games, though are tied with them in the loss column. If Washington was the right team for manager Lou Pinella’s squad to play at the moment, Monday’s opponent, Philadelphia is just the exact opposite.

The Phillies (51-38, +6.5 units) are fresh off a weekend in Miami and swept their then nearest competitor in the NL East, Florida, building a 6.5 game lead in the division. The defending World Series champions are on eight-game winning streak and have been the conqueror in 12 of last 13 contests. The Phils have won every way imaginable; from a 2-0 shutout to a 22-1 blowout and Sunday’s victory improves them to incomparable 29-15 (+16.8 units) record on the road.

Philadelphia returns home to Citizens Bank Park, where they have turned around, after a half a season of dismal play. The Phils have won nine of last 10 at home to raise record to 22-23 (-10.3 units) and they are 21-8 vs. teams like Chicago whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this year.

Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.18 ERA) is the No.5 starter at present; however this job is in serious jeopardy with the signing of Pedro Martinez. Lopez will have likely a total of three starts before Martinez comes off the DL, meaning he will have to have a few inspired efforts. Lopez is pitching on 11 days rest and in his career, is 10-1 in home games when working on seven or more days rest. (Team's Record)

The Cubs will counter with their only All-Star, Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18), who is pitching with two additional off days, since developing inflammation in his left knee. The Cubs lefthander has been extra sharp in last three outings with 2.11 ERA, striking out 20 and walking only three in 21 1/3 innings. Here is a little known fact on Lilly. In the last three years, including this season, only Roy Halladay (47) and Josh Beckett (44) have more wins than Lilly’s total of 41.

DiamondSportsbook.com has established Philadelphia as a -115 money line favorite, with a total of Un9.5. The Phillies are 51-23 off a win and 22-8 UNDER with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. The Cubs have played like they are in hibernation as underdogs with 2-15 mark in 2009. Chicago is 30-12 UNDER vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

This is the ESPN Monday night telecast which will start at 7:05 Eastern, with Philly having taken four of the last six on home turf over the Cubs.

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The three things you can count on in life are death, taxes and change. In each case, how we react to them helps sculpt our lives. In baseball, one aspect that has changed dramatically is pitchers willingness to throw inside. There are reasons this has occurred. Starting when a pitcher tries to throw inside and misses, he could either hit a batter hanging over the inside part of the plate or throw room-service pitch that is launched over the fence. Pitching away plays to the batters weakness, making him chase and swing unnaturally at outside pitches.

The problem with this style or mentality of pitching is batters have no fear. Take the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have been even close to suffering as much bad luck to the staff as the Angels. To start the season, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar started on the disabled list. Lackey and Santana have returned, with neither pitching like they have in the past. Escobar gave it try, but whispers out of Anaheim have many wondering if his career is threatened. Dustin Moseley was supposed to step in and he too ended up on the DL and Nick Adenhart was tragically killed.

The Angels were forced to look anywhere for healthy bodies to pitch, which has contributed to them being 26th in runs allowed at five per game.

The departure of Francisco Rodriguez set off a change of events to the bullpen. Brian Fuentes was brought in to be the closer and looked like a batting practice pitcher for almost eight weeks, with an ERA of almost eight at his lowest point. Scott Shields was always Mr. Durability, until his plant leg and knee gave out, requiring season-ending knee surgery. Supposed closer in the making Jose Arredondo is now in Triple-A trying to get back in groove, while fighting elbow issues.

This has left manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Mike Butcher with a huge dilemma almost every night. The Los Angeles bullpen is 28th in ERA, with opposing batters hitting a blistering .278 against them.

Part of the problem besides command, is lack of knowledge or ability to own the inside part of the plate. Texas Ranger and nearly washed up Andruw Jones hit four home runs in last two games against the Angels and was never threatened with inside pitch. The Rangers hit five home runs in Game 3 to take the series. Wouldn’t you think one Angels’ pitcher would have been peeved and drilled somebody? Nope. They just took it and start Friday’s action in second place, behind Texas.

The easy excuse is “that’s not how the game is played anymore” Really? Do you think Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander to name a few, just work the outside black of the plate? Of course not. Each pitcher effectively works both sides of the plate and is unafraid to come-up-and-in to move a batter who looks a little too comfortable in the box.

Unless the Angels suddenly turn into the 1927 Yankees, it’s very difficult to place a wager on them on a consistent basis, since no lead is safe and even when they do lose, the pitchers are only too happy to just accept it and move on to next game.

Don’t know if you saw this the other day, but it is EXTREMELY simple to determine what is wrong with the Cleveland Indians this season. On average, they have allowed almost 14 opposing players per game to reach bases (13.6) when combining hits and walks. This is the highest number in baseball (Yes, even Washington is better), no wonder they have lost -22.7 units, despite scoring over five runs per game.

Dan Haren of Arizona is going to the All-Star; however he hasn’t received near the notoriety he deserves for his season’s work. His record is respectable 8-5, with the Diamondbacks 10-7 for -0.2 units in his 17 starts. Consider Haren has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. (May 23 against his former team Oakland) A total of 14 times he has pitched a minimum of six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs for a record of 8-5, which is nondescript, considering the production. His ERA is flabbergasting 2.16 and in his five defeats, the Snakes have scored THREE total runs. Consider if the Arizona scored below their average and totaled just four runs per game in Haren’s losses (He allowed eight total runs in defeats), he would have 13-0 record, at +10.85 units and the most celebrated pitcher in the game.

The Florida Marlins are hanging around in contention in the NL East, even though their supposed strength coming into the season has not materialized. The Marlins staff of fine young hurlers is 12th in ERA in the National League and they are ordinary eighth in quality starts. How has Florida succeeded? The Fish are granulating left-handed pitchers, posting 20-11 record, picking up +10.1 units. Florida averages 0.5 more runs per game against southpaws (4.9 vs. 4.4) compared to right-handers. It’s the way the rotation works out; nonetheless, the Marlins are tied for third in facing the most lefties, which seems peculiar at this juncture given there results. What is even more outlandish is the fact Florida pitchers have conceded one less run per game (4.1 vs 5.1) when a left-hander starts for the opposition.

Better late then never Wednesday action

Sorry to be so late, had to get NBA Finals material completed. Bounced right back with 2-1 day and have top notch system that has complete write up below. (Interestingly enough, a few LCC members like Texas) Boston won in MoTown yesterday, can they make it two straight, see Top Trend. The Dodgers dodged defeat scoring five in the eight inning to beat Snakes 6-5, will Paul be as fortunate again or will he have blowout winner? Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday - Washington took a six-game losing streak into Tuesday night's game against Tim Lincecum and the Giants. The Nationals scored four runs against Lincecum and then six runs off the San Francisco bullpen for a 10-6 victory. It's only the third time that a team carrying a losing streak of more than five games beat an opponent that was starting the reigning National League Cy Young award winner. It happened in 1972, when the Cardinals ended an eight-game losing streak with a win against Ferguson Jenkins and the Cubs, and in 2001, when the Rockies beat Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks to stop a six-game drought.

Free Baseball System-1) See below article for today’s best system.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are is 12-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck was very lucky with the Dodgers pick last night and he hopes his luck continues playing Tampa Bay tonight.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Tampa Bay Rays looking for resurgence

The last time Boston and Tampa Bay met it was magnificent moment for the Rays, as a 3-1 Game 7 victory set off pandemonium on the streets of west Florida. The old expression of “that was then and this is now” applies directly as the teams reconvene at Tropicana Field on Thursday for a four game series.

Since winning two of three in Boston to start the season, the defending American League champions have lost six straight series to fall to 8-14. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon has been around baseball a long time and knows these things happen.

“We are not pleased with what's going on,” Maddon said. "We should have been able to win more than one series to this point. But it’s early. It truly is early and I’m very optimistic that we can turn this around.”

"Right now it's just not working. It's a part of the baseball season. Everybody goes through those bad moments. Ours happens to be at the beginning. It's a little bit more glaring. If it happens at the beginning of the year, it's a bad start. If it happens in the middle, you're in a slump. And if it happens at the end, you choke. So right now we're off to a bad start."

If last year brought new and different emotions into the Tampa Bay clubhouse, than certainly having to play with expectations brings another completely new set of circumstances to the Rays players.

Every game right now feels like it's really important for us," utility player Ben Zobrist said. "We need to stop thinking about wins and losses, and think more about playing good baseball. We have such a good team that if we keep focusing on doing the little things right, we're going to win ballgames. We're looking a little bit ahead of ourselves at the overall picture."

The Rays offense could use a few bats to get hot. In the team’s 14 losses, only once have they managed to score four runs, all others have fallen below that level. Based primarily on last season, Tampa Bay (-7.7 units) is 21-8 after scoring three runs or less two straight games over the last two seasons.

Boston (14-7, +4.6) on the other hand is brimming with confidence. They had their 11-game winning streak snapped Tuesday and trailed 5-0 yesterday, but as quality and confident teams do, they kept plugging away. The Red Sox scored five unanswered runs to tie Cleveland and pushed one across in the 10th inning to win the game 6-5 for their 12th win in 13 tries.

“That was a good win,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “I think I’m probably understating it a little bit.” The Boston bullpen was again the story in shutting down the Tribe and they are 69-31 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games.

The opener has very good pitching matchup with Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.625 WHIP) taking on Matt Garza (1-2, 4.97, 1.302). Beckett was rocked by the Yankees in his last start giving up 10 hits and eight runs over five innings. He and the Red Sox will bring 9-3 mark against teams with losing records. Garza is emotional person, which has prevented him from taking the next step to being elite pitcher. In his four starts this season, he’s either been on or been off. The 25-year old has great stuff, but like any pitcher, it’s not going to be there each time out and has to learn to control inner demons and win without best stuff. Garza likes to see the Red Sox uniforms, posting 4-1 record with a 3.40 ERA in seven career starts, which includes a win this season.

Bookmaker.com has the red-hot Red Sox as -115 money line favorites with total at Un9. Boston is only 9-13 at the Trop the last couple of years and 4-13 in all domed stadiums. They are 14-5 OVER in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. Though Tampa Bay is 64-32 at home, they are just 2-11 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Rays are 12-2 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher.

These two AL East rivals have a history, making anything possible. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 Eastern on NESN and SUN, with Boston 11-2 on the road playing on Thursday’s.

MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Red Sox

Just the words -Yankees and Red Sox- bring a strong passion for every baseball fan. Oh sure, we all know ESPN and Fox are biased towards covering these teams, but why shouldn’t they be. In today’s world of fighting for every position and yielding no quarter, New York and Boston are like Coke and Pepsi competing for your attention. Think about it, what rivalry in sports is acted out in the national media 12 months a year? They compete strenuously during the regular season and on occasion in the playoffs. After one has potentially gained the slightest edge on the other, they compete for free agents and try to make newsworthy splash in trade to out-do one another. These two teams and organizations exemplify the very word, competition.

What also makes this rivalry great is how the teams approach each series. This weekend starts the first of 18 meetings between these AL East combatants and even though the score isn’t always close, a compelling tale emerges from each contest. Over the last seven regular seasons, New York leads 68-63 overall. The widest margin has been 11-8 in any given year, with 10-9 occurring three times and one split. Of course New York fans will tell anybody that will listen; their team has won five of last seven series.

All the players also know it’s just not another series and guys like Mark Teixeira will feel the wrath of Boston fans, after shunning Boston’s advances, to wear the pinstripes. Both teams start the weekend tied for second place in the division behind Toronto. The Red Sox are the hotter team having won seven in a row and they are 43-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs a game like New York who is sorting out bullpen and a few spots in the starting rotation. They will have Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50 ERA) take the ball first. The left-hander fired seven shutout innings in last outing after a pair of shaky performances to start the year. Boston is a -135 money line favorite at most sportsbooks, with total Un9.5. Lester and BoSox are 21-4 at Fenway Park the last three seasons.

Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06 ERA) has a pair of no-decisions, pitching well against Kansas City and was wild against Cleveland. Chamberlain has similar stuff to Lester, with mid-90s fastball and sharp slider and the Yanks are 9-4 when he starts for them.

Game 1 Edge: Red Sox

The second meeting will be a Fox afternoon affair, with a couple of old Florida teammates from 2003 World Series champion doing battle. The Yankees coming into the series had won three in a row and five of seven and trot out one of their high-priced acquisitions, A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20). After two crisp outings, Burnett was wild against Cleveland walking seven, however permitted just three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander hopes to benefit from Robinson Cano’s hot bat, which included 10-game hitting streak arriving in Bean-town. Burnett has enjoyed much success against Boston with 5-0 record and 2.56 ERA in eight career starts. Josh Beckett’s (2-1, 3.79) suspension moved him back one game. The Texas native has kept the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run and opponents are batting just .229 against his servings and he is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Both teams have performed well in Game 2 situations with New York 20-8 and Boston 17-8 when Beckett is starter.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

To complete the series, it’s something old and something new, as 37-year old Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53) faces 24-year Juston Masterson (1-0, 3.18). Pettitte has not only given the Yankees wins, but saved the bullpen in his three starts, going at least seven innings each time in 2009. The cagy lefty has spotted his two-seam fastball expertly and his cutter has been almost un-hittable. After starting in the bullpen, the 6’6 Masterson made adjustment to starter Monday, picking up first win with 5 1/3 effective innings. He’s been very sharp with control, ringing up 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his brief career, opposing batters are hitting measly .221 against Masterson, while Pettitte is 6-2 in 13 career starts at Fenway.

Game 3 Edge: Yankees

These rivals have split last 18 contests the last two years in Boston with OVER 12-6. If the games continue to be played Over the total, this should favor Boston who has 2.49 bullpen ERA, compared to New York’s unsightly 6.00. Yet, this is still the Yankees and Red Sox, which suggests anything is possible, thus I’ll side with underdog New York whom I believe has better pitching matchup in last two games to win the series.

Betjamaica.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees +125, Boston -155

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 1-1

MLB Series Wagering- Red Sox at Angels

Under normal circumstances the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would be really fired up, having been eliminated from the playoffs three times by this weekend’s opponent in the last five years, including the last two. However, the tragic event that occurred Thursday morning changes everything.

Nick Adenhart was the Angels best minor league pitching prospect and due to injuries to other starting pitchers, was forced into action to start 2009 season. Adenhart gave a very good opening performance against Oakland, with six shutout innings and at 22-years old, the world was all ahead of him. A senseless tragedy took the life of Adenhart and how the Angels will react is anyone’s guess.

The Angels will turn to Jered Weaver to stem the tide of consecutive losses suffered against Oakland. This is an important season for the 26-year right-hander. Believed at one time to have No.1 starter ability, the last two years have not shown such progression and his stuff is now considered just above average. This spring after shoulder stiffness, his velocity returned according to scouts, throwing in frequently in the mid-90’s. When he’s on, he throws sinking off-speed pitches. At 6’7, his mechanics are prone to be unreliable and can walk two batters at the drop of a hat. Manager Mike Scioscia needs a stellar effort, as the early returns of bullpen have been disastrous, with 9.72 ERA.

Boston will understand the somber tone of the opener at the Big A, and starts Tim Wakefield, now in his 15th year. The knuckle-baller will try to end the Red Sox own two-game losing streak as Boston plays first road game. Wakefield is second in the major leagues in continuous service with one team (Mariano Rivera first) and lifetime is 9-12 against the Halos.

Betjamaica.com has the Angels -108 money line favorites with the total at nine. Weaver and L.A. won five of his last six home starts in 2008; however he has not been a great opening starter with team just 4-9 in Game One’s. Including the season opener, Boston is 14-3 in series openers, but just 3-9 in Wakefield’s road starts. Going to lean with Los Angeles, having 18-4 record after two or more consecutive losses. Watch the total as well, with Weaver and L.A. 21-8 UNDER after a loss over the last two-plus seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Angels

Saturday’s contest will be afternoon affair, with Brad Penny making his Boston debut. Penny hopes to find the form that made him an All-Star in 2006-07 and not the injury-plagued year that left him at 6-9, with an ERA over six. Penny would appreciate if Kevin Youkilis brought his hot bat to La-La Land, with eight base-knocks in first dozen at bats. Because of turmoil with starting staff, Shane Loux will start in Game 2. Loux was one-time prospect in Detroit organization, who throws strikes and depend on ground-ball outs. After being out of baseball in 2007, the 29-year old was the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year with Salt Lake last season. The BoSox will be the favorite and best choice, even though the Angels have won seven of last eight as underdog.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The series finale should be a fine pitching matchup with Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) facing Joe Saunders (1-0, 0.00). Beckett was in top form on Opening Day, chucking seven strong innings, with 10 strike-outs and one run and two hits allowed. Last season, Beckett was very solid on the road with 7-5 and 2.85 ERA, though he is being watched closely after velocity dip late in the season. If Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson is known as Mr. October, than Saunders is emerging as Mr. April, based on his early season efforts the last few years. He limited Oakland to just three hits this past Monday, raising his record to 8-0 in April starts. He’s kept the Boston batting order in check with 4-0 record in six starts, with 2.89 ERA. The Halos are 25-8 against the money line when the lefty starts since the beginning of last season.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

A lot of this series depends on the mental state of the Angels. Skipper Scioscia not only has to be manager, but father figure as well, since each player will react differently about what happened. Because of the unknown, have to stick strictly with facts. Seeing the Angels do have revenge motive and have won nine of last 10 regular season meetings, and five of last six at Angel Stadium, have to play the underdog for this series wager.

Series odds: Boston -145, L.A. Angels +115

3Daily Winners Pick: L.A. Angels