Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

Bowl season ready to roll

All the gifts have been opened and glad tidings shared. The gift cards (the new fruit cake) are stacked to never fit in the wallet and the return receipts are in a nice tidy bundle. For the sports bettor the first six bowl games were like the appetizer trey passed around the last 36 hours, good choices, but it is time to eat. Starting Saturday and for the next eight days, 24 bowl games will be televised to whet the insatiable appetite of even the most piggish of wagering junkie. Without further ado, let get this party started.

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs. Ohio U
Ford Field – Detroit
1:00E ESPN

Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition, as Ohio U. and Marshall meet. The Bobcats (9-4 SU & ATS) are seeking their first 10-win season in 31 years and return to scene where they lost MAC championship to Central Michigan. Marshall (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) is in first bowl since 2004, which wasn’t enough to prevent from coach Mark Snyder being forced to resign. Interim coach Rick Minter takes over as the Thundering Herd look to have first winning campaign in six years.

Marshall was a regular participant in this bowl at the turn of the century making four straight trips. The Thundering Herd is 5-2 SU and ATS as a bowler, however just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS vs. those also playing in bowls. Ohio U. has never won a bowl in three previous tries, falling in the GMAC Bowl in 2007 and losing twice in the 1960’s. The Bobcats split games vs. other bowl teams, with sharp 5-1 ATS mark. The MAC is 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven contests.

Why watch and wager –Ohio is favored by three-points at Bookmaker.com, won three of last four, covered each time and will have regular coach Frank Solich as their leader. Marshall finished 1-3 SU and ATS and will have coach looking for another job at the completion of this bowl game. If Bobcats quarterback Theo Scott has more touchdowns than picks, Ohio is 6-0 SU. The players from Athens are 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive covers this season. Marshall has offensive limitations and feeds running back Darius Marshall (ironic) a load of times, hoping he gets hot vs. ordinary Ohio run D. The Thundering Herd is anything but with 8-22 ATS record having lost two out of last three contests. Motivation is on the side of Ohio, seeking first-ever bowl victory and the most coveted trophy in college football, The Deep Dish Large Pizza (crazy bread included). For geography buffs, these schools are a mere 90 miles apart.

3DW Line – Pick

Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Bank of American Stadium – Charlotte
4:30E ESPN

Charlotte hosts its eighth annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in this bowl and they come in 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-4-1 ATS) looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from ending Cincinnati’s Cinderella season and making a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Coach Dave Wannstedt still has something to sell his team as they could be the first 10-win Pittsburgh squad since Dan Marino wore the blue and gold 28 years ago.

Both teams suffered disappointing season ending losses and North Carolina is 12-14 all-time in bowl matchups, with winning spread record of 10-6-2 ATS. The Tar Heels are 5-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs and were 5-3 and .500 ATS against other bowl squads. Pittsburgh has failed to win or cover last three bowl assignments and is 10-15 and 7-10 ATS in their history. The Panthers are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs. those also playing after the regular season. The Big East is 2-4 ATS in this contest.

Why watch and wager – Difficult bowl game to gauge range of emotions. Pittsburgh could be more chagrined than a Republican about the health care bill and fail to take winnable contest at home against Bearcats. North Carolina has shown more range of emotions than Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes. The Tar Heels started 3-0, lost three of four, won and covered four in a row and filled a diaper at N.C. State. If emotions plays no part, than turnovers have to for North Carolina to win, since their offense isn’t good enough to emerge victorious on its own. The Heels are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. For Pittsburgh, they traded Bourbon Street beads for car parts. The Panthers have to attack with explosive pass catches TE Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin early, which loosens up above average UNC defensive line for diminutive Dion Lewis to scoot thru. Pitt is three-point favorite with total of 44.5, yet is 3-7 ATS when picked by three or fewer points.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
AT&T Park – San Francisco
8:00E ESPN

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC (8-4, 3-9 ATS), as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, but Trojans defense allowed more than 35 points three times after having done so twice prior to this season since Pete Carroll was coach. Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) was inconsistent in their first season under coach Frank Spaziani, but reached a bowl for the 11th straight year despite being picked to finish last in the ACC's Atlantic Division in the league's preseason poll.

This is USC’s first non-BCS bowl game since 2001 and they have spectacular 31-16 all-time bowl mark with 13-12 ATS record. Under coach Carroll, they are 6-2 SU and ATS. One of the few schools that could match the Trojans postseason prowess is Boston College, who saw their eight-game bowl streak snapped last year in the Music City matchup. The Eagles are 13-7 and 10-7 ATS, with 5-3 ATS mark as underdogs. Underdogs are rock solid 5-1 ATS in San Fran and with the total at 44, all three tilts that had totals of 46 or less show underdogs 3-0 SU & ATS.

Why watch and wager – People can’t turn away from car wrecks and mishaps and USC qualifies as both. After seven straight Pac-10 titles and matching number of BCS bids, coach Carroll’s fun-loving crew plays in a converted baseball stadium. No, the Trojans aren’t using Joe McKnight’s Range Rover connection to arrive at AT&T Park and freshman Matt Barkley won’t have important offensive weapons to use once again. USC is 19-6 ATS with two weeks or more to prepare. Boston College also starts a freshman signal caller, he just happens to be 25-year old Dave Shinskie. The Eagles offensive line has to open holes for RB Montel Harris, which sets up WR Rich Gunnell for play-action passes. B.C.’s goal is slow the game down and remind older USC players that this is the Emerald Bowl, not a more prestigious contest. The Eagles are catching seven-points with total at 45 and they are 13-3 as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs.

3DW Line – USC by 5

Chippewas Big Favorite in MAC Title Tilt

All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about their business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. The Chippewas were 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MAC’s all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwich’s record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigan’s return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.

Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.

Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said “It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, “That’s why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. That’s what motivated us in the offseason. We didn’t want to be on our couches watching the game again.”

The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Sportsbook.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.

“You want to be the best, then you have to beat the best,” senior WR Taylor Price said. “We get that chance.”

Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.

ESPN2 has the MAC title game at 8:00 Eastern.

Black Friday could take down college powers

In case you missed it, tomorrow is considered a big shopping day and virtually every store in the country has a deal, no really it its true, saw it on the news and online. It’s called Black Friday because of the frenzied pace of the day at these stores. Today in college football, several teams with high aspirations are looking to avoid the dark cloud that could ruin their dreams today. On this Black Friday, Temple, Cincinnati, Alabama and Pittsburgh all hope to sidestep and not come up empty like many people’s debit accounts at the end of the day. Lines from DiamondSportsbook.com. (Note - This picture is from very first Alabama and Auburn game, the Crimson Tide according to local legend were favored by 7.5, but they had not thought about totals back then.)

Temple (-2.5, 46.5) at Ohio 11:00E ESPNU

After being kicked out of the Big East, Temple (9-2, 8-2 ATS), in just its third season in the MAC, plays for Eastern Division crown at Ohio U. The Owls are strong in the trenches, a mark of a successful football team and will seek to embark their will on the Bobcats. In last three years, Temple is 23-10 ATS in all games. The Bobcats (8-3, 6-4 ATS) have kept the pressure on Temple all season with just one MAC defeat and can play for second conference crown in four years. Ohio U. has split their last 10 home finales of the season, but is 7-3 ATS, including three in a row. Since this series began, the home team is 2-0 SU and ATS. The winner moves on to face Central Michigan next Friday for the MAC championship.

3DW Line – Temple by 5.5

Illinois at Cincinnati (-21, 57.5) 12:00E ABC

Illinois (3-7, 2-7-1 ATS) evidently is the first Big Ten team to aggressively pursue playing games later in the year and not being caught having a month or more before playing a bowl game. Turns out it didn’t matter this year, besides the Illini are 2-15 ATS vs. passing teams like the Bearcats (314 YPG) averaging 275 or more passing yards game. Cincinnati (10-0, 6-4 ATS) finishes off the home portion of schedule and needs this win to set up colossal battle with Pittsburgh for Big East title and more. The Bearcats are off a bye and 14-4 ATS after two home games. This is first ever meeting between these teams and first Big Ten team at Nippert Stadium since 2001.

This game doesn’t directly affect Cincinnati as far as BCS bid goes, however should Texas be upset; the Bearcats want to be at the doorstep to possibly play for national championship. Bettors have a great deal of faith in Cincy, as they opened at -17.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 17

Alabama (-10, 46.5) at Auburn 2:30E CBS

While Michigan State and Ohio State is known as the best college football rivalry, the amount of true hatred that divides the state of Alabama for this matchup is legendary. There is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days.

The Crimson Tide (7-3 ATS) is in a precarious position, thinking about next week’s mega-matchup with Florida, while trying to get there having to visit a dangerous Auburn squad on the road. Alabama is 11-0 for the second straight year and appears to have regained offensive rhythm, with quarterback Greg McElroy back to previous form. The defense is relentless and it will be intriguing to see what Auburn’s offense does against the Crimson Tide. Alabama routed Chattanooga last week in tune-up 45-0 and is 13-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in last game.

Auburn’s offensive firepower has been stymied in last six SEC games, averaging just 21.6 points per contest. Quarterback Chris Todd hasn’t been as effective against stronger competition and turnovers have manifested themselves as a part of the offense. The Tigers (7-4, 5-5 ATS) have started fast the last three games, which would help before crowd looking for blood after Auburn was shutout 36-0 last year in Tuscaloosa, the most lopsided game in 47 years. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in last 10 contests off a loss.

The Tigers are 7-4 ATS in last 11 encounters with Alabama and the home team 4-1 against the number.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10


Pittsburgh (-1, 49) at West Virginia 7:00E ESPN2

This is known as the “Backyard Brawl” and it has grown in stature nationally, with West Virginia (7-3, 3-6 ATS) being a national contender in recent years and Pittsburgh (9-1, 6-2-1 ATS) improving steadily. This year shows a changing of the guard, with the Panthers the high ranked team, playing for a BCS bowl berth. This places the Mountaineers in the enviable position of being the home underdog, as least perception wise and they will look to end two game losing streak to Pitt. West Virginia’s defense will have to prevent Dion Lewis from attacking the weak side like Cincinnati did (9.7 yards per carry) and get pressure on quarterback Bill Stull. The offensive line has to open up more running lanes for Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown needs to find the magic touch he had early in the year. The ‘Teers are 2-6 ATS in home finales.

As much as this game means to Pittsburgh from emotional perspective, the matchup with Cincinnati offers even more with Big East title on the line and BCS bowl berth. Coach Dave Wannstedt won’t want his troops going to battle next week off a loss. Pittsburgh will try to use proven formula this season, have the defensive front four control the other teams offense and keep everything in front of them. On offense, stay balanced, moving the chains and hit enough big plays to surprise the opposing team. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS before their final home game.

This is the 102nd meeting between these bitter rivals and Pittsburgh hasn’t won three straight in 27 years. The Panthers are dismal 5-15 ATS in road games after a two-game home stand

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

A little Tuesday Night Football

It’s a weeknight in November, which must mean it’s time for Mid-American Conference Football. The league has enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2009 with better quality football. Central Michigan knocked off Michigan State and Northern Illinois punted Purdue among fine showings. This week several more MAC games will be televised as teams compete to determine who plays in the league’s championship game.

This is Ohio U’s last road game of the season and it has intentions of staying right where they are in the MAC East standings, hoping to setup all important matchup with Temple in last contest of the year. The Bobcats (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are 4-1 in conference action and trail the Owls who have yet to lose. Before then, the Bobcats have to avoid what almost befell them at Ball State, escaping with 20-17 win as 5.5-point favorites.

Ohio U. has been road warriors with 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. They hope that continue, since the last several years have been contrary to that information, being 8-13 and 6-15 ATS on the November road. The Bobcats offense is now more of a spread with “pistol” elements and as expected growing pain has been part of the process. They’ve averaged 315 yards against teams that allow 376 per game. Their biggest problems have been in the red zone, with a youthful offensive line and no true power backs.

Defensively, Ohio U has been strong, forcing 27 turnovers and giving the offense continual chances. Off their win at Ball State, they are 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last three seasons.

Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) is off painful last minute loss to Bowling Green 30-29 last Tuesday and is running out of reasons to stay motivated.

“It’s a tough loss, tough for our football team,” Buffalo coach Turner Gill said. “That’s why you have to play four quarters. We didn’t know how to finish the football game. Bowling Green did a good job and finished the football game.” After being MAC champions a season ago, the best Buffalo can hope for is .500 record if they win out.

The Bulls have gone thru a number of running backs this season due to injury and Jeffvon Gill, no relation to Buffalo’s coach, rushed for 172 last week against the Falcons in a relief role. The Bulls played mistake free football as week ago, yet is only 8-19 ATS in home games after a contest where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites with total of 45.The Bulls are 5-4 and 6-3 ATS in last nine meetings and have never been favored in 10 previous games vs. Ohio U until today. Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 OVER against teams with winning records. Ohio U. is 3-11-1 ATS as underdog of three or less points since 1997 and is 7-1 OVER in that role.

ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern live from University of Buffalo Stadium.