NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Spurs must control tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.
Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.

That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

Spurs vs Suns Series Preview

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about each other. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been Avis to the Spurs Hertz, with Phoenix having been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war.

(3)Phoenix vs (7) San Antonio

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.
The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.
Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

3Daily Winners Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

Rising Suns in burning hot system

In the West Conference of the NBA, a ten-game winning streak for a good team doesn’t mean as much as it used to. On Mar. 13, the Phoenix Suns (50-27, 43-32-2 ATS) at stood at 40-26, sixth place in the West.

The Suns would embark on 10 consecutive wins, the last four all on the road. Their last contest was away from home at Milwaukee and coach Alvin Gentry prophetically told the local television announcers before the game which they shared with Suns viewers during the broadcast, “We (the Suns) might be in for a stinker”.

Gentry was correct, as his squad was playing fourth road game in five days and they trailed the Bucks by 24 points at halftime before making it a respectable 107-98 final as 2.5-point underdogs.

That 10-1 streak (7-3-1 ATS) is your classic half full-half empty argument.

Phoenix moved is virtual four-way tie for second place in the West with Utah, Dallas and Denver, making the glass half full. However, the reality is they are in fourth place according to the tie-breakers and could conceivably fall to seventh place if they were to lose their next two games and the trailing teams won both of theirs. (This information makes the glass half empty)

There is a real possibility Phoenix could lose two in a row even with three full days of rest with tonight’s opponent San Antonio (48-29, 41-35-1 ATS), which is on ESPN at 7:30 Pacific.
The Spurs have won four straight (all covers) by an average of 14.2 points a game and six of seven overall, with their 95-86 win at Sacramento last night.

Tony Parker returned last evening after missing 16 games, but it has been the play of Manu Ginobili in particular why San Antonio is 16-5 in previous 21 games. “I’m feeling really confident right now,” said Ginobili, whose averaging 24.9 points in his last 16 outings.

The Spurs are a real nemesis of Phoenix, having eclipsed the Suns from the playoffs in 2003, 2005, 2007-08 and won four of last five meetings (3-2 ATS).

The Spurs create matchup problems for Phoenix, who again lead the NBA in scoring at 110.4 PPG, by slowing the Suns down on offense and taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com are not so sure San Antonio can overcome Gentry’s team again, installing them as seven-point road underdogs and facing a potent super situation.

Play On explosive offensive teams, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

When this state of affairs arises, the high scoring team off the crummy performance is 35-11 ATS, 76.1 percent the previous five seasons.

With the Spurs 3-14 ATS after four or more consecutive wins and Phoenix 10-2 ATS playing against a good team with a 60-70 win percentage this season, the odds stack up in their favor.

NBA Telivised Tilts

It’s a sure sign the football season is nearly complete, when guys in the semi-short pants from professional basketball are on TV to close out the weekend. For many NBA bettors, they have toiled for some time with the daily grind of crunching numbers and attempting to determine if their methodology will work. The NBA offers two quality contests for your viewing pleasure, with the first contest possibly missing key players and the later contest an old school showdown with glorious past.

Denver at San Antonio 1:00E ABC

The Nuggets are uncertain if Carmelo Anthony’s gimpy ankle will allow him to go, after missing Friday’s contest in Oklahoma City. Additionally, Denver is still sorting out the behavior antics of J.R. Smith from eight days ago on the bench. Smith was nearly suspended but V.P. of player personnel Rex Chapman; finally deciding against it, in hopes coach George Karl won’t have any more problems with him forward.

It’s been no problem on the actual court for Denver (31-15, 21-24-1 ATS), having won eight of nine with 4-4-1 ATS mark. The Nuggets surge has been led by guard Chauncey Billups who is averaging a career-high 19.2 points in addition to 5.9 assists. Denver is 25-11 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the half of the season over the last two years.

While Anthony’s status is up in the air for Denver, no such luck for San Antonio, with Tony Parker sidelined with an ankle sprain. The Spurs (27-18, 23-21-1 ATS) aren’t exactly hitting on all cylinders, having lost five of last eight and covering just three spreads. The most damning aspect of the slump is they have not been able to take advantage of six game home stand (2-3 SU & ATS), since after today they take to the road for eight games on “Rodeo Trip.” The Spurs will have to shoot a high percentage with less firepower in the backcourt and are 20-9 ATS when they make 48 to 51 percent of their shots in a game since last season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has San Antonio as six-point favorite with total of 198. The Spurs are just 2-7 ATS on Sunday assignments and 8-1-1 UNDER on this day of the week. Denver comes in 4-11 ATS in last 15 contests with a day’s rest and is 23-7 UNDER as the visiting team if the home team has a .600 or better record on their court. The road team has covered the last five meetings between this Western Conference clubs.

L.A. Lakers at Boston 3:30E ABC

Possibly Boston’s midseason lull isn’t a cause for concern, with 6-10 (5-11 ATS) record since Dec. 27 and this veteran squad will turn it on once the scent of playoff basketball is in the air, yet watching them play you still wonder where the Celtics (29-15, 18-26 ATS) are headed. Ray Allen seems to be aging game to game, lacking the ability to create his own shot off the dribble. In NBA language that is called “catch and shot” player and not many elite teams have this type of guy in the starting lineup.

All was thought to be well with Kevin Garnett back, one problem he looks slow, like his long aging and increasing injured legs are starting to fail him, particularly on defense. Guard Rajon Rondo needs Google search to find the basket with as wayward as jump shot has been. Boston is also suffering from a lack of cohesiveness with Garnett and others taking turns missing game. Boston is 13-7 at home with sickly 6-14 ATS record.

The Lakers (36-11, 22-24-1 ATS) probably feel like their home was foreclosed on, playing their seventh road game in a row, all in the Eastern Time zone. The purple-clad team from L.A. is 4-2 SU and ATS thus far, with three wins in a row and starts heading back west tomorrow, with a stop in Memphis to conclude the road trip, against one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Los Angeles however is just 1-6 ATS if the opponent has a winning home record.

The Lakers will attempt to thwart Boston’s interior defense, by shooting well from the perimeter and they are 31-14 ATS when they make 39 to 45 percent of their three point attempts. Los Angeles has covered six of last seven Sunday contests and is 4-1 OVER since falling at Cleveland. Boston 0-8 against the number taking on Pacific Division squads and is 20-7 OVER off a SU loss. The one-point favored Lakers have covered once in previous five visits in Bean-Town.

NBA All-Star Saturday Wagering Options

With the NBA teams off for a few days, one can idly pass the time by placing wagers on the action in downtown Phoenix Saturday night, while watching on TNT. The always popular Slam Dunk Contest will be shown, with Dwight Howard returning to defend title. The Skills Challenge and 3-Point Shooting Contest are still in the mix and a new fun event was added. Players will play the old-school game of H-O-R-S-E and though the corporate sponsor will have the naming rights, it doesn’t have to be mentioned here.

Slam Dunk Contest Odds

Dwight Howard -135
J.R. Smith +235
Nate Robinson +500
Rudy Fernandez +500

Analysis – The last two of three Slam Dunk champions are in the field and the dynamics of this event have changed. Fans will be able to determine the winner for the second time in the history of the event, instead of a panel of judges. Fans will be able to cast their votes by sending a text message or by voting on NBA.com. This seems to lend the competition not so much to skill, rather to theatrics, like Howard had last year. Since Howard is the biggest name, you have to go with him, unless Robinson comes up with a ploy to excite texters.

Winner- Howard
Longshot - Robinson

3-Point Shooting Odds

Jason Kapono +120
Rashard Lewis +300
Danny Granger +300
Mike Bibby +800
Roger Mason +500
Daequan Cook +800

Analysis- Jason Kapono tries to become the first three-peat winner of the 3-point shootout since Craig Hodges (1990-92). Have to agree with oddsmakers, Bibby and Cook are longshots. Lewis is probably the most dangerous competitor to Kapono, since he can stroke it and stay hot for a period of time. Granger is proof of hard-working self-made player who developed an outside game. Unfortunately, it won’t matter much on this stage, running around the half circle. Mason has become a big time clutch shooter with the Spurs when they need a basket and is intriguing choice to pull the upset. Expect Kapono to be focused to tie Hodges and his boyhood hero Larry Bird as three-time long distance champion.

Winner- Kapono
Longshot - Mason

Skills Challenge Odds

Tony Parker +200
Derrick Rose +300
Devin Harris +200
Mo Williams +250

Analysis- A big part of this competition is desire. In the past, the winner is a proven commodity who wants to show the world his multiple skills or a player ready to take it to next level, like Deron Williams did last season. Parker doesn’t need the pub; however Harris and Williams are hungry for a taste. Rose certainly has the skills, look for next time.

Winner- Harris
Longshot - Williams

HORSE Competition Odds

O.J. Mayo +150
Kevin Durant +165
Joe Johnson +175

Analysis- The first thing everyone needs to know is no dunking, this is about shot making and creativity is important. Though this group is packed tightly together, Durant has range and is more of a gym rat player and probably has plenty of shimmy in his repertoire to have the other competitors chasing him.

Winner - Durant