Tuesday's Top Plays and more

Hit the skids a bit of late, but we’ll try and turn this around starting today. Ken gave us yesterday’s winner and he’s getting hotter than a steering wheel that was out in the desert sun all day and offers another top Free Play. The Top Trend takes a look at how a certain club plays after hanging a zero on the scoreboard. The Best System is just that at over 90 percent.

This plus baseball info and Guaranteed Play for Tuesday. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I was doing some research today and came across what looked to be pretty interesting numbers. San Diego is a below average hitting team, but when they have 10 or more hits, they are 28-7 this season. In all other games the Padres are 34-33.

This led me to think how that might stack up against the best teams. The Yankees are impressive 37-11, but Tampa Bay blew me away at 41-6 with double digit hits. Clearly strong pitching matched with good hitting leads to wins. For the sake of comparison, I checked out Kansas City who can hit, but lacks quality pitching and they are 31-22, proving hitting can overcome a lot of problems, but not all of them.

The GUARANTEED Plays were right on the nose with Atlanta last night and today my Guaranteed pick has more edges in tonight’s matchup than an octagon table, including one that is 80 percent. This is a Special Winner or Wednesday is Free!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Florida with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a sizzling starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. You’ve seen this before and difficult to ignore 67-7, 90.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend –2) Pittsburgh is 1-12 revenging a shutout loss to opponent this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken picked up three more winners last night including Oakland and Tuesday has San Diego burying Manny-wood for good.

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Totals System totally contrarian in SoCal

There isn’t a person alive that participates in sports betting, be it a regular individual, wise guy, handicapper or the person on the other side of the counter taking the money that doesn’t love believing they have information that is different than most everyone else that can lead to winning sports wager.

This info is contrarian to your typical mainstream material and if you are convinced this places you in advantageous position to cash a winning ticket like few others will, you become more smug than a British Petroleum executive.

Out in Southern California, in the later stages of the afternoon, a very reliable total system will be put to the test when San Diego (59-40, +22.8 units) and Los Angeles (54-47, -2.3) play in a key NL West showdown.

The Dodgers have won five of seven with an offense that can aptly be described as offensive. In L.A.’s last seven trips to the ballpark, they have touched home plate a grand total of 12 times, that is 1.7 times per contest for those lacking a calculator. However, in their five victories the Dodgers pitching staff has four shutouts and permitted two runs in the other contest.

With Manny Ramirez on the DL for a third time, the Los Angeles front office did something to bolster the offense, trading for outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who is batting .310 and can still run, having 30 stolen bases. L.A. needs something having one or zero runs on the scoreboard 23 times this season.

The Dodgers lost 6-1 last night to San Diego and trail the Padres by seven games in the loss column. San Diego is no fluke with August just around the corner. The Padres have the best record in the National League and also have the largest run differential in the senior circuit at +94.

Mat Latos (11-4, 2.48 ERA) looks to continue his exceptional pitching streak that has him winning six in a row (The Padres have won his last seven starts) and he has a Major League best 0.80 ERA since June 22.

His mound opponent is Vincente Padilla (4-3, 3.41), whose been nearly as good with 1.04 ERA in his last five outings, with 3-1 record.

Online sports betting outlets have this contest at Un6.5 and if ever a game looked like an Under, this would be it except for this baseball system.

Play OVER on road teams against the total, after scoring one or less runs in a loss to a division rival; with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.
The logic behind this system is simple, the motivated visitor is expected to be extra focused off a loss to division opponent and in this case, the Dodgers could win the series and pick up ground on San Diego. It might be the year of the pitcher, yet historically in this spot, the road hurler has faltered and he and his team have allowed 5.8 runs per game. Over the past five years this total system is distinguished 37-13.

The average total score of these matchups has been 10.7 runs per game, which is 2.3 more runs than the typical line. No doubt these are two teams built for pitching, playing in a ballpark that yields runs sparingly. Could this be another 1-0 game, sure it could based on current form of the two starting pitchers.

Nevertheless, this system provokes a different kind of thinking and a 4-3 or 5-3 contest can certainly not be ruled out. Take some time to study this confrontation and determine if you are a contrarian thinker.

Sometimes your the windshield, sometimes your the bug

Last night I went 1-2, but had my chances. I bet against Stephen Strasburg and Washington, as Florida had him on the ropes the first three innings, leaving six men on base. To his credit, Strasburg got the Marlins out, but the Fish certainly had their chances.

I took another underdog with the streaking White Sox, who finally saw the air come out of the balloon, but in a unusual way. The Pale Hose committed four errors which was the difference in their 7-4 loss. San Diego won comfortably to complete the day.

If I were presented with the same exact circumstances again today for betting baseball, I would make the same three wagers. It just didn't work out.

Back in Business

With a 97-55 record over 152 plays, we tackle today starting with one of the best systems of the year at 91.5 percent. The Top Trend is virtually perfect and Ron is making a killing betting baseball and has another play ready to go for Free.

What I did the last few days – Went to Vegas with my vacationing daughter and had a tremendous time. No question the face of Vegas is changing, with many more people in the 25-40 range. This is in part to more affordable room rates then in the past and most of these people are used to paying $10 for drinks.

My daughter had never been downtown and I had not been at night in sometime. Had a great time viewing the overhead show and playing in the small casinos. Even went into the Golden Gate Casino, where I learned how to play craps years ago.

Met a few cappers and sharps and the word on the street is the newer M Resort is the place for serious bettors. They are taking more action with higher limits to attract the crème of the crop and have several more wagering options for those that make a living betting full or part time.

Cabo Wabo is Sammy Hagar’s place and they’ve opened restaurant as part of the Miracle Mile right on The Strip. Good food and a good time.

One thing you have to do on next visit is hit Minus 5 bar. Really unique and brought back the bone-chilling cold I used to feel and no longer miss for a second.

I was surprised to hear the number of live bands at so many places. It was funny to see one guy trying to be Sugar Ray (wasn’t happening) and a lead guitar player was still working on his moves, though he could have been Steve Nash’s brother.

Another band had a higher 30’s female singer who thought she was a younger Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas and in the same group, the guitarist must have bought his latest guitar strap at a discount store that only had “smalls” left, since it looked like he was playing his six-stringer under his chin.

If you are into Beer Pong, have to hit O’Sheas, awesome.

For the most part I had no luck gambling on pretty much anything I tried, until finally finding the right craps table at The Mirage of all places (normally don’t play their much) and getting back most of my money with a group of hot shooters. Thank God.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like the Cubs, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smokin’ starting pitcher, whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is delightful, 54-5 since 2006.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Baltimore is 1-19 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Met Ron in Vegas and he is just killin’ the books, now up to 44-11 in last 55 MLB plays, plus he’s making all kinds of other cash on other wagers on baseball that he personally plays in other ways. Tonight he dons brown friars clothing and is playing the Padres.

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Saturday Stuff

Coming into Saturday we are 86-47 in last 133 plays, 64.6 percent, pretty damn good. Today we have fabulous system that is 92.7 percent in the only National League contest. The Mariners are in Milwaukee, is that a good thing, read today’s Top Trend. Ron of the Left Coast Connection is percolating and has Yankees/Dodgers play for Free. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – The NBA draft is boring. Nonetheless, I think DeMarcus Cousins is going to be a star and I love the Lakers taking Devin Ebanks. Detroit took Greg Monroe and he will either be a 12-year pro and a very good player or in the league for five years and out depending upon his mental makeup to get tougher.

I thought Ekpe Udoh was a reach at #6 pick by Golden State, but it’s Golden State. The Knicks blew it in my opinion with their picks and San Antonio got the perfect player for them in James Anderson.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like San Diego, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a blazing starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 over his last five starts. Since 2006, 51 winners and just four losers with this system.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 1-13 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season, losing by 2.5 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LCC is top quality 9-3 the past few days and has the Dodgers burning New York and the Yankees.

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Major League Baseball Trendy Talk

It’s the final week of interleague play for this season and today four matchups in particular stand out on the baseball scorecard. We have a blend of hot pitchers, hot teams and a hot rivalry for this Tuesday.

St. Louis at Toronto 7:07 E

Call them what you will, lefties, port-siders or southpaws, whatever the name, Cardinals rookie lefty Jaime Garcia (6-3, 1.59 ERA) and the Blue Jays Brett Cecil (7-3, 3.58) have both been highly effective.

Garcia at 23 years old has overcome Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss all of 2009, yet he’s been incredibly effective, not conceding more than two earned runs in his 13 starts this season. A lack of run support has left Garcia and St. Louis (38-31, -6.4 units) at just 6-7 overall this season, totaling three or fewer runs in seven of his trips to the mound.

Cecil suffered his first loss in five weeks at San Diego, being pounded for five runs in six innings. Prior to that, the Toronto left-hander has given up six total runs in five outings. Cecil and the Jays are is 12-4 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

With the total at 7.5, Garcia and the Redbirds are 10-0 UNDER in night games and merely 20-26 in June games over the last two seasons. The free-swinging Blue Jays (38-32, +10.2) are 6-10 against lefty starters this season (2.9 runs per game), but 12-3 OVER vs. a very good bullpen like Cards whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.

San Diego at Tampa Bay 7:10 E

The Padres (40-29, +13.8) continue to be the biggest surprise in the National League, leading the NL West this far into the 2010 campaign, with exceptional pitching and timely hitting. San Diego leads the Major Leagues with 3.01 ERA and also in strikeouts (541). San Diego comes up big when it matters most, ranking 4th in ERA with runners in scoring position and 2nd overall with the same threat and there are two outs. The Friars have been at their best against quality competition with 14-4 mark playing against team with 54% to 62% win percentage this year.

Tampa Bay (42-27, +1.6) still have top notch record, but their 8-9 mark in June has dropped them out of first place in the AL East. Two reasons for this fall, the Rays starting pitchers have an ERA over 5.50 since the middle of May and players like B.J. Upton (.230 batting average) Carlos Pena (.200) are hurting their ability to score runs in the upper part of the batting order. The Rays are pedestrian 18-15 at Tropicana Field; however they are 36-12 in home games after scoring two runs or less.

Tampa Bay is smallish -132 ML home favorite largely because San Diego’s Mat Latos is 6-1 since May 7, with opposing hitters showing a sordid .197 batting average against the 6’6 right-hander.

The Pads are a pretty reliable 12-7 (+8.5 units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
Atlanta at Chicago White Sox 8:10 E

Two of the hottest teams in the big leagues collide this evening in Chi-Town. The Chicago White Sox (34-34, -2.7 units) are back to .500 having won six straight and 10 of 11 and are within shouting distance of Minnesota in the AL Central at 5.5 games back. The biggest reason for Chicago’s turnaround is their continued dominance of the National League, with a 10-2 record this season and 34-14 since 2008.

Atlanta (42-28, +11.1) has been no slouch, with five consecutive conquests and winners of eight of last 10. The Braves have also thrived in interleague action with 7-2 mark in 2010. The Atlanta offense has been working in harmony with its pitchers. Atlanta leads the NL in scoring at 5.1 runs per game and when they score five or more runs in a contest, they are perfect 31-0. (42-0 dating back to last season)

A great pitching matchup of two terrific young hurlers, featuring Tommy Hanson (7-3, 3.27) vs. John Danks (6-5, 3.18). Hanson and the Braves are -113 ML road favorites and are 16-3 in the first half of the year since he arrived last season. Danks has not received a great deal of run support this campaign, but is 7-3 when throwing on five days rest (Sox record) and the Pale Hose are 22-8 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 2008.

L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels 10:05 E

Another chapter unfolds in the Freeway series, which moves south to Orange Country and Anaheim. The Angels (39-33, +5.1) are the hotter team having won six of nine, yet have lost ground in the AL West, with the Rangers reeling off eight wins in a row. The Halos swept the Dodgers (38-31, -0.3 units) nine days ago and are 17-4 versus NL West opponents over the last two seasons.

The Dodgers are having their typical issues with the AL, sporting 2-7 record and they are 29th in interleague play the last four years at 21-37. They will lean on Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.97) to end four game losing streak. The club with the blue hats is 36-17 after a loss by two runs or less (2-0 at Boston) and Kershaw and teammates are 9-0 against a team with a winning record this season.

The Angels are +112 home pooches and are 16-8 at the Big A as underdogs of +100 or higher. Ervin Santana (6-5, 3.91) and Halos are 9-1 (+10.8 units) as an underdog of +100 to +150. Manager Mike Scioscia’s club has taken 16 of previous 23 meetings; however the road team has won five straight series.

Let's gitter done this Sunday

Bad luck more than anything caused us to go 2-1 yesterday, as the Phillies melted like the cheese on a Philly cheese steak. Our record now stands at 81-42 last 123 plays. Today we have Top Trend that is flat dead perfect with imposing score differential. The Best System is highly profitable 82.4 percent and Mark of the LCC has a Best Bet going today. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – I don’t know about you, but it was fun to see Tiger Woods back on the prowl (on the golf course that is) playing with confidence and being a factor. That Dustin Johnson dude is long, just like Tiger used to be.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like the Orioles, an AL team with a low on-base percentage of .320 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or lower), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Betting against teams like the Birds is profitable 82.4 percent of the time. (42-9)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Halos are 9-0 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse over the last two years clubbing them by 4.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron suffered a tough loss with the Phillies and Mark’s recent 7-2 run has him on the Padres.

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Bring Back Steroids to Baseball!

I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than a year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

Written by Red Wydley who drops by on occasion.

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Big League Trendy Talk

While your parents taught you gossip is unhealthy, it is a positive when breaking down baseball betting. For those that participate in sports betting, having knowledge that can give you the edge, well it’s invaluable. Review the best information anywhere on four meaningful baseball contests tonight.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05 E

Both these NL East clubs busted out scoring slumps last night as they totaled 18 runs on 26 hits, with Philadelphia (31-26, -5.4 units) winning 10-8. Because of tonight’s pitching matchup, they could both go right back into batting slumps. Roy Halladay (8-3, 2.03 ERA) goes for the Phillies and Josh Johnson (6-2, 2.10) for Florida (28-31, -5.5).

Sportsbooks have the Phillies as -160 money line home favorites and as good as Doc Halladay is, Johnson isn’t too shabby with the Marlins 41-18 when he starts and 13-5 when he is underdog of +150 or less. With the way the Phils have been hitting lately, Halladay probably feels like he’s back in Toronto and is 5-9 (-11.8 Units) against the ML after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

It’s not all doom and gloom for Philadelphia as they are 29-15 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better and the floundering Fish (four straight losses) are 1-11 versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower this season.

San Diego at N.Y. Mets 7:10 E

The Padres (34-24, +13.3) got a rare taste of their own medicine, falling 2-1 in extra innings to New York (31-27, +4.1). Even with last night’s defeat, San Diego is uncanny 9-3 when a total of four or less runs are scored this year. Mat Latos (5-4, 3.26) has the unfortunate luck of drawing another top line pitcher in tonight’s action. Latos has been matched against Halladay, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo and Jonathan Sanchez (three times) and has to look at Johan Santana (4-2, 2.76 ERA) this evening.

Santana has thrown 15 straight scoreless innings and has a 0.74 ERA over his last five starts and his teammates are thriving at Citi Field. The Mets are 23-9 at home and are riding their second nine-game winning streak in the Big Apple. New York is 7-0 at home after three or more consecutive wins this season and is a -150 ML favorite. Santana is his career is 104-33 as a favorite of -150 or more. (Team's Record) San Diego will attempt to counter and is 9-3 after four or more consecutive road games in 2010.

L.A. Angels at Oakland 10:05 E

Though it seldom gets much play nationally, the Angels (32-29, +2.2) and Athletics (31-29, +3.7) is one of the more heated division rivalries in baseball. The teams have split the first two of a four game series and Oakland will attempt to retake second place on the AL West behind Dallas Braden (4-5, 3.77), who hasn’t won since tossing a perfect game on Mother’s Day. Braden is 0-3 with a 4.45 ERA since May 9th; however oddsmakers still have the left-hander and the A’s as -128 favorites. Braden is 5-13 (-12.1 Units) against the ML as a home favorite of -110 or higher. (A's Record)

The Halos had their six-game winning stopped last night with 10-1 thumping and hand the ball to Joe Saunders (4-6, 4.78), who could be spokesperson for a yoyo company with his up and down performances. Saunders and the Angels are 13-4 in road tests vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs a game since 2008 and the port-sider is 10-4 vs. his rival. Even with last night’s loss, the Angels are 14-6 at McAfee Coliseum the past three seasons.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10 E

Manager Tony LaRussa tried to play the percentages, essentially giving away the first game of the series in Los Angeles with his pitching choices and coming back with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.05 ERA) the next two games. His plan was foiled as Hiroki Kuroda and two relievers combined for a six-hitter in the Dodgers 1-0 shutout victory. St. Louis (33-26, -5) hasn’t been great this year, however they have avoided long losing streaks, but our in danger of losing four in a row for the first time since June 5-9, 2009.

Having Wainwright to pitch will be a big plus, as he is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 30 innings over his last four overall outings and has a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers (35-24, +4.8). With the Cardinals a -105 betting option, they and Wainwright are 14-3 when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.

The Blue Crew is in the midst of its longest homestand of the year (13 games) and have won seven of first nine and they own the finest record in the big leagues since May 9 at 22-7. Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 3.06) toes the rubber for L.A., with his club 37-15 at Dodger Stadium with a money line of -100 to -150 since last year.

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MLB Series Wagering - Dodgers at Rockies

With the Memorial Day holiday weekend about to go into full swing, the race in the National League West starts to heat up also. The unofficial beginning of summer marks when television and radio announcers can no longer say “it’s still early”, with a third of the season soon to be completed. The Dodgers and Rockies meet for a second time in 2010, this time in Colorado.

Both clubs are chasing confounding San Diego, with Los Angeles (26-21, -1.2 units) two games back in the standings and Colorado (25-22, +0.7) three behind.

The Rockies have been ravaged by injuries to their pitching staff, but have started to overcome them riding a five-game winning streak. The Colorado offense has started to hit its stride in winning six of seven, scoring 5.4 runs per game and moving up to sixth overall in the National League. In their last four games the Rocks have launched 11 home runs.

The Dodgers offense has been feast or famine this season. Los Angeles is fourth in the NL at 4.9 RPG, but they were shut out twice at Wrigley Field this week, giving them seven zeros already, after being held scoreless just nine times in 2009.

As per usual Colorado is enjoying the benefits of Coors Field and are 14-7 (+4.8) at home and will start Jeff Francis (1-0, 0.68 ERA), who missed all of 2009 with shoulder surgery. In his two starts this year, Francis looks very much like the pitcher that won 17 games and led Rockies to World Series. Sportsbooks have Francis and teammates as -152 money line favorites and they are 18-3 as a home chalk of -150 to -175 over the last two seasons.

The Dodgers are still looking for another starting pitcher and give the ball to Carlos Monasterios (1-0, 1.90) for a second time. Monasterios has 10 other relief appearances but is excited about another opportunity. “I like starting,” said the rookie right-hander. With the total at 9.5, Monasterios will attempt to do his part and improve L.A.’s 40-20 record when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Game 1 Edge: Colorado

Colorado is feeling really good about their recent play coming into the series. “We’re definitely playing better,” said Troy Tulowitzki, who’s homered four times in five games. “We’re playing defense, pitching a little better and getting some timely hitting, mixed in with some power.”
Since last season the Rockies are 41-16 at home after three or more consecutive Coors contests and will have Aaron Cook (1-3. 5.40) on the hill. Cook’s strength as a pitcher is nibbling on the corners and keeping his heavy fastball low in the strike zone. To date he has lacked his usual efficiency and has as many walks as strikeouts (25). He’s going to need more control to extend his team’s 5-0 record when he starts at home.

The Dodgers have certainly held the upper hand against Colorado recently. Los Angeles is 17-5 against the Rocks since the beginning of last year and has won eight consecutive series dating back to Sept. 2008. Joe Torre’s club has also emerged victorious nine of previous 12 at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Hiroki Kuroda (5-2, 3.03) has been most effective this season, pitching at least into the sixth inning in all his starts and allowing more than three runs just once. Manager Torre moved Kuroda back a day in the rotation and he and his blue-capped team are 11-3 when he pitches with five days of rest.

Game 2 Edge: L.A. Dodgers

The series finale is a solid pitching matchup featuring lefty Clayton Kershaw (4-3, 2.90) against Jhoulys Chacin (3-2, 3.09). Kershaw has been living up to all the potential heaped on him the last few years and has 0.64 ERA in his last four starts with 27 K’s in 28 1/3 innings. Coors Field hasn’t been his favorite place to pitch with 2-2 record and 6.92 ERA. The Dodgers are 7-8 in day games and Kershaw has to command the strike zone with his 91-95 mph fastball to set up his “Uncle Charley” curve.

Like Kershaw, Chacin is also 22 years old and has a five pitch arsenal that can baffle hitters. He’s harnessed his control (13 W, 30 K) and only permitted 22 hits over 32 innings with opposing batters nicking him for .188 batting average. He'll be facing the Dodgers for the second time, having pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings against Los Angeles on May 8. Colorado is much better in day games with 12-7 record and with these two young starters, the Rockies might add another UNDER to 13-5-1 mark in day baseball.

Game 3 Edge: L.A. Dodgers

Haven’t been very good in picking series winners thus far and instead will follow a little football logic of never better against a strong trend. The Dodgers have owned Colorado the last few seasons and not have to face Ubaldo Jimenez has me leaning with Torre’s troops.

Series odds: Los Angeles +115, Colorado -145

3Daily Winners Pick: L.A. Dodgers

2010 Record – 2-5

No Monday plays but great info

No great systems, trends or otherwise today, so we’ll let today go.

What I found today – Will this be the year the National League finally ends the American League’s six year reign of terror? Though just 42 of the 252 official interleague games have been played in 2010, the numbers are evenly divided at 21-21.

Some of the usual suspects performed up to their high standards (see article below), as Boston and Minnesota both won series over the National League. However, even traditionally dreadful clubs like San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers came thru and won two of three.

Get out the cell phone to take a picture of this.

Tampa Bay is the first team to get 20 games over .500 and they are the best bet in baseball at +13.3 units, think about that being possible after the 2007 season.

Next is two very unlikely candidates, San Diego (+10.1) and Washington (+10.1).

The Padres are still in first place in the NL West despite a batting order that does not raise the blood pressure of opposing pitchers, but they have pitching staff that leads the National League in ERA at 2.98. While some will say this is a by-product of playing at cavernous Petco Park, San Diego is 14-9 on the road and their ERA is third in the big leagues at 3.8.

Washington being over .500 at 23-22 at this stage of the season is remarkable for them. The reason the Nationals have been successful to this point is improved defense and pitching. Instead of ranking in the lower 25 percent of virtually every category, they are now average, which has them as more competitive club.

At the beginning of the year Seattle was considered a serious threat to knock the L.A. Angels off the throne as AL West champs. The question was why?

Last year Seattle was 85-77 after a hideous 61-101 2008 campaign. Because they lacked offensive firepower, the Mariners front office built the team around pitching and defensive in particular. The move paid off with surprising season.

In the offseason, Seattle added Chone Figgins trying to get another player on base for the middle of the lineup and thought Milton Bradley would find the Puget Sound a more calming area than Chicago. Seattle was 28th last season in runs scored and without changing the main part of the heart of the order, the M’s remain 28th in scoring at 3.5 runs per game, lacking any offensive punch.

With every team placing a greater emphasis on defense, the Mariners edge is negated and Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee can’t pitch shutouts on every start, which helps explain why Seattle is 16-28, -13.9 units.

Sharp sports bettors knew this before the season started. The 2009 Mariners were the 13th team since 1900 to post a winning record after losing 100 or more games. The very next year these teams have a .487 win percentage or roughly 79 wins. (From Bill James 2010 Gold Mine)

What does the home court mean in the NBA Playoffs?

Favored teams thus far in the postseason are 36-13, 31-17-1 ATS when playing in their own building.

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Great System, Great Video

The Los Angeles Dodgers had their nine-game win streak snapped at an inopportune time, losing last night to division leading San Diego 10-5. The Padres were the first team in ten games to rip thru the Dodgers pitching, who had allowed 18 total runs during their scorching streak.

Los Angeles will attempt to begin another charge at first place and split the quick two game series against San Diego.

The Dodgers defense has been a source of concern all year, ranking 11th in the National League. However they have tightened up all aspects of their game and have gone six contests without an error.

Manager Joe Torre will hand the horse-hide over to Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP), which should put smile on everyone face (along with below video) preferring the home team for sports betting purposes. Kershaw has allowed one run in his last two starts, permitting five hits over 15 innings, striking out 16 opposing batters. Equally as important for him the left-hander is giving up just five walks.

L.A. is 29-8 in home games after a loss and will face Kevin Correia (4-3, 4.35, 1.220) who Kershaw and the Dodgers downed 4-1 last Saturday in San Diego. Correia allowed the four runs over 5 1/3 innings in the defeat while attempting to overcome the emotional scars of losing his younger brother, Trevor, who died after falling from a 60-foot cliff while hiking on Santa Cruz Island.

Sportsbooks have Los Angeles as -158 money line favorites, despite having Andre Either out the lineup and possibly Manny Ramirez, who injured his left foot before yesterday’s contest and was scratched from the starting nine and later was used as pinch-hitter. Nevertheless, the situation is quite favorable for the home team in this I-5 conflict.

Play On favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings.

This baseball system is 62-16, 79.5 percent since Daniel Powter’s No. 1 Billboard hit “Bad Day” (2006) and the margin of victory has been decisive, with the favored club winning by 2.4 runs per contest. Everything points to a Dodgers triumph with L.A. 33-13 in May games since last year.

Baseball Series Wagering - Dodgers vs Padres

Of the various Major League baseball series that had the possibility of being intriguing in the middle of May, this would not have been one of them before the season started. But much like “The little engine that could”, the San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leaders at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco at their yard.

Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets.

What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record.

Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG.

In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’”

With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A.

“It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.”

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team.

Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen.

One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s.

Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week.

Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles

At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests.

With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park.

Game 3 Edge: San Diego

This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series.

Series odds: Los Angeles Even, San Diego -130

3Daily Winners Pick: San Diego

2010 Record – 2-3

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Baseball bettors more profitable with right knowledge

Sports talk radio and sports forums are loaded with people that have opinions on all kinds of topics. Some are informed, many are not. Throwing out the often tired “_______ sucks” does not qualify as riveting or informed perspective on a particular team or player. If the teams or players are playing good or bad, for the sports bettor, it pays to know and understand why.

“It’s not working”

The Baltimore Orioles (-10.6 betting units) started the year 2-16, getting a head start on their usual second half collapse. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay does not make the job any easier and they’ve only faced confounding Toronto in the first three games of the season before anyone realized they would be this good to this point.

The Orioles are only scoring 3.3 runs per game and though they are 7-8 since horrific beginning, they are not doing anything at the top of the batting order. Baltimore manager Dave Trembley keeps trying to find one hot bat for the No. 1 slot of the batting order, but thus far, nothing has worked with Cesar Izturis (.218 at press time) Julio Lugo (.224) and Adam Jones (.230) all having a turn without producing to help Ty Wigginton or Matt Wieters drive in runners.

The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros (-8) have the same basic problem as they have muddled along in 2010. The Cubs (-12.6) placed Ryan Theriot at the front of the lineup and he gets on base regularly with .329 batting average. Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto are both hitting over .325 but the middle of the lineup is a black hole on the north side of Chicago. It’s not a good sign when one of your starting pitchers (Ryan Dempster) has a higher batting average (.230) than those in the heart of the order. Derrick Lee (.220, 28 K’s) Aramis Ramirez (.159, 31 K’s) and Xavier Nady (.186, 10 K’s in 43 AB’s) are swinging and missing, giving new meaning to the “Windy City” and the Cubs not scoring enough runs to win.

Houston’s Michael Bourn is batting lead-off, hitting .289 with on-base percentage of .366 and is nearly automatic to reach second base after a single with 11 stolen bases. Unfortunately he might have to start stealing third and home with Lance Berkman hitting .197 and Carlos Lee at .200. This less than dynamic duo has 18 combined runs batted in, which 33 National League players have surpassed individually.

There is a very good reason why White Sox slugger Paul Konerko leads the Major Leagues with 13 home runs, yet has only 27 rbi’s, nobody ahead of him in the batting order is ever on base. Leadoff man Juan Pierre has stolen 15 bags, but he can’t steal first and .244 BA leaves Chicago missing opportunities. The same is true of Gordon Beckham in the No. 2 slot of late, batting a shocking .188 and leading the Pale Hose in strikeouts with 28. Its little wonder the White Sox (-7.4) are hanging out with Cleveland and Kansas City in the lower regions of the AL Central instead of hunting down Minnesota

So that’s how you do it

It’s either seldom or never heard, “The Washington Nationals are my favorite bet”. The Nats are in second place at 18-15 behind two-time National League champion Philadelphia and are the tops in baseball betting at +11.4 units. How could this possibly be the world wonders?

Eventually, Washington will slide below .500 if they keep being outscored by a half a run a contest. Nonetheless, at least for now, four elements have changed. The first bit of credit goes to skipper Jim Riggleman, who’s altered the tone in the locker room. For years, Nationals players didn’t seem to care if they won or lost, but now those in the clubhouse daily see joy when they win and remorse when they suffer a defeat.

Next, Washington is in the middle of almost all NL offensive stats, which gives them a chance and their defense which has been one of the worst since moving to D.C., is at least average and they are getting to more balls that lead to outs. Lastly, the Nats are not blowing as many games late with Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps both having ERA’s under 2.00.

The San Diego Padres (+9.4) are atop the NL West, thanks to a nasty pitching staff and just enough offense. Pads pitchers have hung seven zeroes on opposing teams and held seven others to one or two runs, which doesn’t necessitate having the pressure of scoring a lot of runs to stay in the game.

San Diego pitchers are second in the NL is ERA (2.71) and BAA (.224). Padres’ hurlers are in the top six in strikeouts and top five in fewest walks allowed, which stops scoring threats from exploding. Everything is so cheery around Petco Park, even talk of trading Adrian Gonzalez has stopped.

Toronto’s unlikely quick start this campaign has been fueled by starting pitching (2nd in the AL in quality starts) and hitting the long ball. The Blue Jays (+7.3) hitters lead baseball with 51 home runs, which has meant no prolonged scoring droughts.

As good as Toronto has been, Tampa Bay (+7.2) has been that much better in the standings. In spite of a great deal of youth among its starting staff, the Rays top five starting pitchers have an ERA all under 3.20. They have 23 quality starts, the finest in the AL and the entire staff has the best ERA (2.80) and skimpiest BAA permitted at .223.

Tampa’s team batting average is pedestrian at .254; however they are third in baseball in runs scored and clutch when it counts, second in the AL in runs scored when there are two outs. This is still the most athletic team in the game and if first sacker Carlos Pena would stop trying to pull everything and hit balls to left-center like he used, the offense would only improve.

The final team to bet on is the Yankees, which is usually a bad choice considering what the losses cost. Presently, New York is hitting and pitching so well you have to think about them every day, especially on the run line.

The Yankees margin of victory is 2.2 RPG and they are 21-7 in games decided by two or more runs. Betting them on the run line is a safe wager at -150 or more on the money line, because they are so dominant and it keeps the losses to a minimum.

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Baseball Systems that are a home run

It’s the first full week of May baseball action and on this Tuesday a number of high quality baseball systems standout. A number of underdogs are really up against solid situations that in the past have been very profitable by playing against them. Will this happen again, read on and make your own decisions.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05E

The Orioles swept Boston over the weekend, but reality came calling in the form of Yankee pinstripes, ending Baltimore’s brief euphoria. The O’s are 10th in the American League in batting at .246 and they will face A.J. Burnett (3-0, 2.43 ERA) as +220 money line underdogs. Here we find road underdogs of +150 or more, batting .260 or less against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) , with a starting hurler that gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start are unbecoming 18-84 since 1997.

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati 7:10E

The Mets have lost three in a row after their eight game winning streak was snapped and are +130 road dogs in the Queen City. Other than last night, the starting pitchers have been roughed up forcing a top notch New York bullpen (2.60 ERA) to start piling up the innings. Surprisingly, underdogs with ML of +100 to +150, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, having worked three straight games throwing four or more innings, are 30-9.

L.A. Angels at Boston 7:10E

The Angels of Anaheim are having serious pitching problems. Among their 15 losses on the year, nine have been by four runs or more, including last night’s 17-8 pasting to the Red Sox, their fourth consecutive road loss. The Halos are +175 dogs and non-favorites being outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season after allowing 15 runs or more are alarming 7-39.

Detroit at Minnesota 8:10E

Joe Mauer might be out of the line-up, yet Minnesota keeps punching the ball around the yard and is second in the AL in batting average (.279) and third in runs scored at 5.4 per contest. In game two of their series with division rival Detroit, the Twins are -135 favorites and home chalk of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games in May, are sharp 43-10 since 2006.

Colorado at San Diego 10:05E

The Rockies got a much needed win last night in San Diego. Colorado’s pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Though the bullpen has a fine 2.48 ERA, they are three of six in save opportunities.

Colorado acquired Greg Smith to be a left-handed starter and thus far his results are atrocious with 7.33 ERA. The Rockies have lost Smith’s last three outings since he has performed even worse with 9.53 ERA and bloated WHIP of 2.471.

Colorado might be catching +135 on the ML, however road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, using a nasty starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts are 7-33, 17.5 percent the previous five seasons.

Monday Material

Hit a nice stretch of winners, giving us 13-3 record after perfect 3-0 Sunday. Steve keeps doling out Free Winners and heads to south Florida on the diamond tonight. The Top Trend is an American League special and the Best System is at 80.8 percent in what is expected to be a pitcher’s duel. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday-
On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On favorites with money line of -125 to -175 like Philadelphia, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season in the NL. Since 1997, this system is beautiful 42-10.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Seattle is 14-4 after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection backs the Fish over the Friars.

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The baseball train keeps chuggin'

The schedule might appear lighter in baseball action with just eight games on the board; however that doesn’t mean opportunity doesn’t exist. We went thru and isolated four specific MLB systems that are thought provoking and should have a well above average chance of being profitable to start another week of baseball betting. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

St. Louis at Arizona 9:40E

The Cardinals are already in first place in the NL Central, where they are expected to end up at the end of the season. You can’t blame St. Louis if they a trifle fatigued off 20-inning game Saturday and a tense come from behind effort 5-3 win over the New York Mets last evening.

St. Louis has left 32 men on base the last two contests (22 in the marathon) and are a -129 money line favorite in the desert against angry Arizona club that was swept by San Diego and has lost four in a row.

Here we look to Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, in the first half of the season. These teams are unsightly 12-33, 27.7 percent.

San Francisco at San Diego 10:05E

Even after losing series to the Dodgers, San Francisco maintained lead in the NL West with 8-4 record. The Giants continue their road trip further south down the California coast to San Diego.

The oddsmaker looked at the Matt Cain vs Clayton Richard matchup and studied two good bullpens and hung out an Un7 on this confrontation. With this setup, we found a 52-19 system that suggests to Play Over on road teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, after a loss, on a club with a winning percentage of 62% or better on the season.

Detroit at L.A. Angels 10:05E

Last week was not a good for Detroit, dropping two series and losing four of six games. Like many teams this time of year, the Tigers are attempting to put together a consistent bullpen and though the ERA of 3.21 appears more than adequate, too many runners are scoring in hold situations and they have surrendered 64 hits and walks (44-H, 20-W) in 42 innings, for WHIP of 1.524.

In the last three seasons, road clubs with bullpen WHIP between 1.450 to 1.550 on the year, who are a good fielding team, turning 1.1 or more double plays per game are 33-74.

Baltimore at Seattle 10:10E

There had to be a general sense of relief in Baltimore dugout as they ended their nine-game losing streak in being victorious for the just the second time this season yesterday in 8-3 triumph over Oakland.

Even with the offensive outburst, the Orioles are batting puny .234 as a team, with on-base percentage of .292, while scoring 3.2 runs per game.

Seattle’s return to the state of Washington has boosted their play, with two series victories. The pitching has been the difference and the bullpen has sharp with 3.29 ERA on the year (1.17 ERA at Safeco Park). The Mariners are a -148 money line favorite with total Ov8. Keep in mind, American League teams hitting less than .260, facing a bullpen with ERA under 3.33, on Monday’s, are 39-14 UNDER the last 13 years.

Really, you can bet on the Friars today

It’s the rubber game of the series near the waterfront in downtown San Diego, where the Padres host Atlanta. The Braves bounced back from 17-2 debacle in the first game and handcuffed San Diego 6-1 behind Tommy Hanson and three relievers yesterday.

Atlanta may be only 4-4, however offensively they have been quite patient at the plate, drawing over four walks a game, helping set up of batters to drive in runs. Bobby Cox team hasn’t capitalized as often as they should yet, batting .229 as a group.

The Braves are -124 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com with Tim Hudson back in the rotation. The 34-year right-hander had Tommy John surgery a season ago and made six appearances at the end of last year. In his first effort of the new campaign, Hudson gave two runs and three hits in seven innings against San Francisco last Friday, in which his team eventually lost 5-4 in extra innings.

Hudson will be challenged by Mat Latos of San Diego. Latos is considered the crown jewel of the new Padres organization at 22 and throws in the mid-90’s, along with having a good slider and big breaking curveball. Like many young pitchers, command is an issue and he conceded three home runs in six innings at Colorado, yet he limited the damage to just four runs by not walking any Rockies hitters and his team ended up winning 5-4.

San Diego is picked again to finish last in the NL West, having limited talent in the field except at first base with Adrian Gonzalez, nonetheless draws a favorable position as an underdog in today’s super situation.

Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150, when their team's hitters draw four walks or more a game on the season, against opposing starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter in his last outing.

The last three years this system has been spellbinding at 24-4, 85.7 percent.

Other factors to consider for the 6:35 Eastern matchup are Atlanta is 2-6 in Hudson’s most recent starts and the Bravos are 1-7 when the former Oakland hurler is a -140 or less favorite.
San Diego is a resilient bunch, 16-5 off a loss and 6-1 after a scoring two runs or less in previous contest.

With Latos sporting a 1.29 ERA in two appearances totaling 14 innings against Atlanta, he has the “stuff” to limit Braves hitters and who knows, the road club might be thinking ahead on getaway day looking forward to getting home with bigger series against Colorado and Philadelphia.

MLB Home Openers at eight Ball Parks

The Major League Baseball season may be a week old, but for several teams the joy of playing before the home fans begins today. Whether the results have been fruitful (Philadelphia 5-1) or less than desirable (Seattle 2-5), for the home town fans, all is forgiven because the boys of summer are back.

Target Field - 4:10E ESPN

The most anticipated home opener is in Minnesota, where the Twins return to the great outdoors after 28 seasons in the Metrodome. The Twins enjoyed as good as home field advantage as any team in baseball, with its speedy carpet and intimidating sound when the joint was two-thirds full or more.

Part of Minnesota’s edge was opposing teams had no use for the place. “I hated that dome,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said, whose team will be the first opponent in the new park, adding: “You couldn’t see the ball when it went up. You had those speakers hanging off the thing. I felt like I was in an office building.”

Minnesota won five of their first seven games on the road, thanks to outstanding pitching that has allowed just three runs per game. Carl Pavano makes his second start of the year, being a +140 underdog according to Sportsbook.com to Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Pavano is 11-4 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons (Team's Record), while Lester and Boston is 60-25 on grass fields.

One difficulty the Red Sox have endured is 3-14 record in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Wrigley Field – 2:20E WGN

Baseball returns to the North Side of Chicago at the Friendly Confines for a 95th season. The Cubs are 2-4 to begin 2010 with offense lacking punch and bullpen more giving than a philanthropist. Chicago is batting Mendoza-like .197 as a team and all four losses have come after leading in the game, the last three given away by the bullpen.

Ryan Dempster is a noted fast starter, as he and Cubs teammates are 14-2 at home in the first half of the season the last two years. Chicago is a -155 money line choice and is National League best 145-97 at home since 2007. The Cubs will try to get into Milwaukee’s bullpen, which blew two saves over the weekend to St. Louis, at least coming back to win yesterday 8-7. The Brewers are 4-15 after a blown blew a save since last year.

Citizens Bank Park -3:05E MASN

The Phillies look every bit as good as the team that has made consecutive World Series appearances, winning it all in 2008, with 5-1 start. They open up before their adoring fans as a decisive -275 money line favorite against everyone’s punching bag Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start against the free-swinging Nationals and the Phils are 51-26 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest.

Maybe this won’t be as easy as it appears for Philadelphia as Washington is still .500 this late in the season (good for them) and Hamels and the Phillies are 1-8 in days games dating back to the start of last year. With the total at Un.9.5, the defending National League champs are 15-3 UNDER at home vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs a game.

Progressive Field 3:05E

Cleveland started just about as expected with 2-4 record on the road and seeks better results against a Texas team that has been a nemesis. The Indians lost eight of nine to the Rangers in 2009 and hope Fausto Carmona can provide another early season victory. Cleveland blew a five run lead in losing to Detroit yesterday 9-8 and is 10-24 after scoring eight runs or more. The Tribe is +110 underdog in their home opener.

Busch Stadium -4:15E

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing real offensive firepower the first week of the new campaign, scoring 6.2 runs per game on the way to 4-2 record. They will finally get to show the home folks just how explosive they are against a Houston club the has not scratched in the win column in 2010 and is off to their worst start in 27 years at 0-6.

The middle of the line-up has been especially potent with Albert Pujols batting .375 with four home runs and 10 RBIs and Matt Holiday hitting .423 with three home runs and six RBIs. If Adam Wainwright continues to pitch like he has since last year, the -230 ML is well justified for Cards team that is 20-3 a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last two seasons.

PETCO Park – 6:35E Sports South

A home opener means different things to different players. The Padres Kevin Correia grew up in San Diego and used to attend games at Qualcomm Stadium as a kid. In 2008 he signed a minor league contract with San Diego after five years in the San Francisco organization and is on the big club, making the start today in the team’s initial home game of the season.

“It’s exciting to be able to pitch at home and have it be opening day,” Correia told the Padres’ official Web site. “It’s going to be something to look back on and remember.” The Friars are +145 home dogs to Atlanta; however Correia and Pads are 13-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss since he became starting pitcher.

Safeco Field – 6:40E

This year is supposed to be different for Seattle, a contender in the AL West, but a 2-5 start has them tied for last in the division and they take on Oakland in their first homestand of the season, the surprising leader out West. The offense was the deepest concern coming into 2010 and those beliefs have founded to be true, batting .230 as a team with .303 on-base percentage and totaling three runs a game. Having lost the last three of four games in series to the A’s, the Mariners are 12-3 in the Great Northwest with double revenge on their minds and are a -120 betting choice.

Rogers Centre – 7:20E RSN

Expectations are very low for the Blue Jays this upcoming season, but at least for the moment those thoughts have given way to optimism with Toronto of to flying 5-1 start. With a rejuvenated pitching staff that was ravaged by injures a year ago, Toronto has permitted 18 runs in first six outings. Brian Tallet will take a second turn this season for Blue Jays squad that is 20-10 in April since 2009 and face Chicago team that is 0-10 in Canada. The White Sox will start Jake Peavy and are -125 ML faves against Toronto team that have won last hour home openers.

MLB System has San Diego in world of hurt

The Colorado Rockies lost last night to San Diego 6-3 and all wanna-be contenders for the wild card in the National League did not. That left Colorado with a four game lead in the loss column over San Francisco and Atlanta, with 10 games to play. The Rockies understand what it’s going to take to wrap up their second playoff berth in two years at this juncture.

If we win the rest of our series, nobody catches us,” Rockies manager Jim Tracy said.

They will attempt to stay on that course today in the deciding game of the series again the Padres. Colorado (86-66, +13.5 units) is seeking its fourth straight series win and is sending Jason Hammel (9-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.402 WHIP) to nail it down. The Rockies have won seven of Hammel’s last 10 starts and the right-hander has an ERA of 3.38 over his last seven outings, yet he is only 2-1 during that stretch. “He’s been much better than a 9-8 pitcher for us,” Tracy said.

San Diego (70-83, +1.1 units) has had a miraculous season considering traditional baseball facts. The Padres are the only team in the Major League’s that has allowed 4.8 or more runs per game and tallied less than four runs per game. That means on average, they have lost almost a run per game on a nightly basis.

Compare that to Arizona, whom San Diego is four games ahead in the standings in the NL West, who also has given up 4.8 runs per game, but has scored 4.5 runs per contest. In the bigger picture, the D-Backs have a -60 run differential, while San Diego has more than doubled Arizona’s figure at -133, yet trail the Pads.

How could this be, it’s surprisingly simple and rather random. The Padres are 22-17 in one run games and the Snakes are 20-27.

San Diego will send Clayton Richard (4-2, 4.76, 1.500) to throw off the slap and Bookmaker.com has installed the Friars as +175 road underdogs with a total of 9.5. According to today’s best system, San Diego is in trouble.

Play Against NL road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since 2005, this system has roared to 86-20 record, which is 81.1 percent. There is a comfort level to playing against the Padres, as teams in their situation have lost by 2.6 runs per game when placed in this position.

It’s a fact any system can lose, especially when a team is feeling the pressure of pennant chase, yet even the most skeptical sports bettor has to like the fact Colorado is 25-6 as a home favorite of -150 or more and San Diego is 4-15 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season.

Good Luck!