Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Here’s the deal, if you bet for or against the Carolina Panthers and lose, it’s your fault, since you’ve been warned. Jake Delhomme has a stranglehold on this franchise and his remarkably inconsistent play has bettors improving Rogaine sales, pulling their hair out.

After Delhomme continued last year’s playoff meltdown by throwing seven interceptions in first three games, all Carolina losses, coach John Fox said the he was his quarterback (since he didn’t have another on the roster that was any better). The Panthers offense live and running backs put a band-aid on the problem by winning three of next four games, and Delhomme actually went three games without a pick.

After last week’s loss to the Jets, it’s clear the “bad” Jake is back. He threw four absolutely lame interceptions against the Jets in 17-6 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. He threw more passes off his back foot against the Flyboys secondary; he actually wore out two heels on his right shoe in 34 pass attempts. In his last two games, Jake is 33-78 for 357 yards and has two TD’s and five picks. His quarterback ratings for those two contests have been 60.3 and 12.7. As stated, you been warned.

If you wondered how 6-5 Jacksonville could possibly attain a winning record, you have plenty of company. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL with a positive record that has allowed more points than they have scored and by a rather large margin (202-255). Don’t expect them to be around come playoff time.

The Arizona and Tennessee contest ended being the betting game of the week. The Titans had largely opened as one-point home favorites and it drifted up to two points by Saturday. Just as the first NFL games were kicking off Sunday, word started filtering out that Kurt Warner was not going to play. That led to a rush of Tennessee money pouring in with many bettors having the Titans as -3 or those who came at game time at -3.5. As we know, Vince Young threw a touchdown on last play of the game and those holding Cardinals tickets lost for the most part, while many Titans backers were hung at -3.5, while those that held -3 or +3 got their money back.

Week 12 of the NFL was the first time in five weeks the favorites had a winning spread record (9-7) and for the fourth time in five weeks, the UNDER was the play overall.

Last Friday was the big shopping day known as Black Friday. For college football bettors who prefer favorites, the term took on another meaning as the chalk was 3-8-1 ATS and for the weekend they were 17-31-1 ATS, their worst showing percentage-wise since Week 5 of last season (16-30-1 ATS).

From an entertainment perspective, rivalry week was awesome and more like it used to be several years ago when underdogs were dependable plays when matched against their biggest rival.

Time to call out Pete Carroll as a hypocrite. After engaging and questioning Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh about going for two-points trying to get to a half a hundred against his Trojans, two weeks later USC threw TD bomb in the last minute to score a needless touchdown in 28-7 win over city rival UCLA. What made it all the more unusual is sometimes word gets to coaches about alumni having large wagers on certain games and they wouldn’t mind if the coach scored one more to make sure the donors are happy. That didn’t appear to be the case here since USC opened at -14, but were bet down quickly from there.

Know your Football Numbers-

Winning as a road underdog in the NFL is a big deal this season. This has been a real confidence booster for these clubs since they are 20-10-2 ATS in next game. We’re seeing a modest resurgence of an old favorite in the NFL, playing on teams off exactly three ATS losses. Their record is 11-6 ATS in 2009 and Seattle could be a potential play, but they had a bye week in the mix, which knocks them out.

My pal Steve Makinen wrote an article recently stating some stats are more dependable than others when addressing the NFL and he mentioned yards per point. Since week 4 (what I use as starting point), teams that were in the top 5 for that week and not playing another team in the same group, are respectable 20-15-1 ATS. Those teams in the bottom five after rocky 6-12 ATS start are 13-6 against the spread. Also of interest, when a bottom five team plays a top five team in YPPT, they are 4-3 ATS, having covered last four. Click here to see this week’s teams.

Turnovers are the one aspect college football bettors can’t truly account for. However, this season there has been one area you can at least receive some help. Teams that have committed five or more turnovers are 24-12-1 ATS if they play the following week and squads that force five or more miscues are 28-19-1 ATS if they play the next weekend.

Magical Monday Night

Ended up officially 2-1, though many probably had a push on Tennessee and Arizona. Today we an 88.9 percent NBA system on a losing team that is favored. The Chicago Bulls have yet to cover in a specific angle in a number of tries and red hot Kendall has a Free CBB play. We also check in on how many experts feel about tonight’s big football contest. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – You cannot bet the Carolina Panthers, period. Yesterday they had an easy opportunity to cover against the New York Jets and Jake Delhomme returned back to early season form. There are option quarterbacks in college football that throw the ball better than he does right now. On Sunday he made Bills backup Ryan Fitzpatrick look like he belongs in the NFL. I honestly don’t know how you bet for or against Carolina with Delhomme the biggest wild card holding back a franchise.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) The Golden State Warriors are off to another dismal start at 5-10 and were lambasted 130-97 by the Los Angeles Lakers in last contest. That could be good news tonight for the league’s third highest scoring team (108.5 PPG), as home clubs scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, off a loss by 10 points or more, with the line at +3 to -3, are 24-3 ATS the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 0-9 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall is 11-3 the three days in all his top plays and is on Bowling Green tonight. (LCC members are a divided house, 10 each on the Saints and Patriots and four apiece on the total)

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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In Search of Perfect Thursday

I was shaky on the system play yesterday and it was proven out for 1-2 day. Today’s system has two offerings on the same game both over 80 percent. Today you get to choose. The Top Trend is in a televised NBA game and absolutely perfect. For today’s Free Play it is one-sided in the NFL. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites when playing on a Thursday. (25-6 ATS L5Y) OR>>> PLAY AGAINST favorites after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games, with a losing record. (24-3 ATS (24-3 ATS L5Y)

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Out of 14 LCC members on tonight’s NFL game, 12 are backing Carolina.

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Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL Week 9 Sunday Key Info

New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.

Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.

Keys to the Game-

Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.

Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50

Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.

Keys to the Game-

Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.

Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5

Miami at New England 1:00E CBS

The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.

Keys to the Game-

Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.

3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5

Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX

New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.

Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5

San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS

Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.

Keys to the Game-

Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.

The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.

StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you were one of the sports bettors who had Carolina at -7 at home against Buffalo last Sunday, you were robbed. No it wasn’t by the oddsmaker and it wasn’t by Jake Delhomme (though he played a strong supporting role), it was the Carolina kicker John Kasay.

As advanced steps have been taken to analyze sports, one not given nearly enough credit is lost opportunities and how they relate to future results. My guess as to why this has never taken a strong foothold is because a lot can sound like whining depending on the story-teller and today’s world tends to be more results oriented, leaving less room for conjecture.

The Carolina Panthers were moving the ball up and down the field but stalling when they needed to punch the ball in the end zone. Kasay had two field goal opportunities in the first half against the Bills from very makeable distances of 43 and 39 yards respectively and he missed both. Where his misses altered the course game was in the last five minutes of the third quarter. Another Carolina drive was stalling at the 16-yard line of Buffalo, with the Bills ahead 7-2. Despite Kasay’s long history of success, coach John Fox was displeased with his accuracy on this day and decided to pass on 33-yard attempt and went on fourth down and about four feet. Carolina was stuffed at the point of attack and lost the ball on downs, trailing by the same score, in spite of 16-4 first down dominance.

That was essentially the game as the Bills took advantage of Delhomme interceptions and scored the next 10 points to build commanding 17-2 lead.

Kasay’s two misses changed everything. If he makes both field goals, the Panthers lead 8-7 and assuredly a normally conservative coach Fox kicks the field goal, giving Carolina an 11-7 lead and Buffalo now needs a touchdown from backup Ryan Fitzgerald, which based on final tally of total yards (425-167 Panthers) seems unlikely. Of course there is no way to know, but based on the pace of the game, Carolina at worst would have kicked another field goal (for a push) or possibly would have tallied a touchdown for the winner. A kicker’s inability to put the ball between the uprights cost his team and Carolina backers a victory.

Cross off New Orleans as a team that can’t overcome serious adversity. Whatever was possible for undefeated team playing a flat game against rested opponent on the road to go wrong did for the Saints. Drew Brees was sacked, hurried and intercepted, as New Orleans fell behind 24-3, but they never gave up and for the third time already this season, the Miami defense faltered in the second half and lost for a second time in three attempts. The Saints aren’t going 16-0, but with each passing week it looks like the road thru the NFC to the Super Bowl goes thru New Orleans.

If you have Direct TV, you saw a month’s worth of bad football this past week on the NFL package. The average winning margin for week seven was just over 20 points per game which has to approach some record. What is going to be really hard on NFL bettors is when these awful teams start meeting each other with nothing to play for, whom to you choose.

Know your Numbers- The current disparity in the NFL is shown by the fact teams with winning records playing teams with losing records are 14-7 ATS since week 4. –A couple of years ago the StatFox Edge Football Annual ran an article about Yards Per Points Scored. The basic premise was to Play On the Top 5 teams and Play Against the bottom five teams on a weekly basis. Thus far the Top 5 is 8-5-1 ATS and the bottom five is 6-12 ATS. (Teams in same group playing each other are not counted) If a matchup has a crossover from each group, the better team is 3-0 ATS thus far.—Favorites ended up 9-3-1 ATS last week, giving them 56-46-1 ATS record on the season. A sportsbook operator on the Vegas Strip I spoke to said the bean-counters were not going to be happy, as teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England and the New York Jets not only were heavily bet straight up, but were in various parlay and teasers that won, making it a one of the worst Sunday’s in the NFL in recent memory for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

In Search of Sunday Success

A very sharp Saturday for 3Daily Winners as we were 3-1, if you include earlier Washington State system play this week. Let’s see if we can keep the winning go with a Best System play that is 26-5 since 1983! The Top Trend seems to be contrarian, but not 10-1 record. Kendall has been lighting them up in the NFL and offers his Best Bet. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I got my backside handed to yesterday and accomplished an unusual feat. How often do sorry teams like Ball State, Iowa State and Kentucky all cover on the same day? I mean except for yesterday. Heavy sigh

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Free Football System-1) PLAY Against any team with average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Over the last 26 years this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent. The Atlanta Falcons fit this losing profile.

Free Football Trend -2) The Arizona Cardinals are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall is 9-3 the last three weeks in the NFL and foresees a Carolina cover coming today.

Now tap today we have our Guaranteed NFC Game of the Day backed with perfect angle.

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Only off day of football this week

After a 1-1 performance, we move ahead to kind of a peculiar day. The Top Trend was rained out yesterday, so bring it back again. No great MLB systems, thus decided to bring in something completely fresh, a first half wager for Saturday college football (Clip and save). Sal will hopefully have another magical free play. Good Luck

What I learned today – The Panthers and Titans are each 0-3 this season after finishing the 2008 season with 12 and 13 wins, respectively. The last team to start 0-3 coming off a 12-win season before this year was Dick Vermeil's 2004 Chiefs. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Virginia on the first half line who are terrible rushing team, averaging three or less yards per carry, against a team with a good rushing defense like North Carolina (3 to 3.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Dating back to 1992, this system is 23-3, 88.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal backs the Braves to continue latest hot streak.

Guaranteed CFB Play for Wednesday

The Platinum Sheet is packed with useful tools.

Tony Romo needs make good to teammates

Dallas comes off a disappointing last second loss to the Giants in last week’s new stadium opener, and will look to turn it around in a Monday night contest hosting Carolina. The Cowboys fell to 1-1 with the loss, putting more importance on this game with a two-game AFC road swing on deck, after both the Giants and Eagles won on Sunday. Dallas is on a nice run of 28-14 ATS, bouncing back from a game in which they allowed 30 or more points. A 1-2 start, losing their first two games at the new palatial palace in Arlington would be disastrous for the Cowboys.

Hey Carolina, it’s time to wake up! Every Panthers fan is well aware if you go back to distressing playoff loss to Arizona from last season, Carolina has lost seven straight games, if you include the four preseason games. Failure like success is contagious and you can forget what it feels like to win and what it takes, for a squad who has failed to cover last five outings after allowing 350 or more yards in previous contest.

Things change expediently in the NFL and a 0-2 start for a team that won their division a season ago doesn’t count for much, ask Tennessee and Miami how they are feeling right now sitting without a win. The Panthers on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear before their open date, which comes next week. That could be important as Carolina is on a 6-1 ATS stretch in pre-bye week road games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Panthers as eight-point road underdogs, with a total of 47.5 and amazingly, underdogs have covered 12 straight pre-bye week games in which Carolina was one of the participants.

Both teams need their quarterbacks to play up to capabilities. Jake Delhomme has five interceptions already this season, with one touchdown pass and Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett’s least favorite Dallas signal caller, Tony Romo, pretty much singlehandedly cost the Cowboys a win last week. In last nine meetings between these teams the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Carolina covers if two very important things happen. Start with Carolina offensive line giving Delhomme protection. It’s been known for sometime Delhomme is liable to put the ball up for grabs when receiving pressure. His steadiness has waned since the middle of last season. He needs time and has to get the ball in Steve Smith’s hands. The O-Line has to do better than 4.2 yards per carry with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Dallas is loose in gap protection, which could open up running lanes for the dynamic duo. The Cats are cool 16-5 ATS off a road loss against a division rival.

The other key point is Carolina defensive coaches need to add diversification. The Panthers are not getting any pass rush and are not blitzing to counteract. The defensive line is being wiped out with opponents rushing for 168 yards a game. Find ways to free up linebackers to make tackles and mix it up. Given Romo’s playing style, the Panthers could go to 9-2 ATS following a SU loss if they play looser and attack more.

Dallas covers if they properly execute last week’s game plan. The Cowboys ran for 251 yards against a very good Giants defensive line, which means they should have no problem averaging somewhere between 5.1 yards per carry (Carolina allows) to 7.0 (Dallas’ average YPC). Coach John Fox has seen enough coverage miscues to last half a season in the first two games, even Romo should be able to read and react to what he sees, with his team 8-3 ATS this month. The Cowboys led the NFL in sacks last season, thus far, ZERO. Delhomme will hit open Dallas defenders like they are the primary receiver if under duress. The Cowboys are 17-8-1 ATS off a defeat.

Monday Night System – Play Against any underdog that allowed 24 or more points in their last two games. (26-13-1 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Looking for a NFL Week 2 Upset Saturday?

The NFL preseason is even more unpredictable than the regular season, as incentives, coaching decisions and lack of continuity all play a larger role in August football. If one follows this line of thinking, this should suggest taking the points with the underdog is not a bad option, especially given the right circumstances. Here is a look at several potential upsets that could be in play on Saturday.

Oakland at San Francisco

Around the Oakland practice field this week, head coach Tom Cable heard the chant “Cable, Bumaye” - a reference to the “Ali, Bumaye” during the 1974 “Rumble In The Jungle” heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The chant loosely translates to “Cable kill him”. This refers to reports of coach Cable clobbering assistant coach Randy Hanson, a reported Al Davis snitch.

Along with the usual absurdness that follows the Raiders, they have been running scrimmages recently against Bay Area partner San Francisco and getting their lunch and dinner handed to them. The 49ers’ players have been mocking them, which should lend itself to some professional pride by Oakland as three-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com. If nothing else, maybe the Niners will be too satisfied.

Carolina at Miami

Carolina committed a sloppy five turnovers in losing to the Giants on Monday night and will seek to tighten things down this week. Quarterback Jake Delhomme will see more action and the Panthers are a solid 8-4 ATS as dogs under coach John Fox and 6-1 SU & ATS against the AFC. Miami is a three-point home favorite and they are 16-24-3 against the spread when the favored squad.

Detroit at Cleveland

Both teams have a lot to prove this upcoming season, however Detroit has a greater sense of urgency after a winless regular season. Most people know the Lions were 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) last preseason, before going on to make dubious history. Nevertheless, the circumstances are different as Detroit has new coaches and a real desire to bury the past. Cleveland looked absurdly pathetic in totaling 191 yards of offense against Green Bay in 17-0 loss. The Browns quarterback battle looks like it could have winner by default instead of someone earning the job. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against the NFC and are on 0-5 SU and ATS roll in the preseason. The Lions are catching 3.5-points.


San Diego at Arizona

Neither team played well in suffering defeat in first preseason games. San Diego threw for 329 yards last week, but had -2 turnover difference in losing 20-14 to Seattle as three-point favorites. The Chargers could be in a great situation since they are 9-1 ATS off a home loss. San Diego hits a rather potent system that states to Play On underdogs or pick, off an upset loss as a favorite, this week of the preseason. (28-8 ATS)

New Orleans at Houston

Both the Saints and Texans were winners last week. Houston was actually outgained by Kansas City by 27 yards, however was +3 in turnover margin. Matt Schaub was superb 7 for 7 in opener; however behind him Houston is thin at quarterback. Rex Grossman was presumed backup, but he injured hamstring and is out. That leaves Dan Orlovsky and Alex Brink to put up points for the Texans who are oddly 3-2-3 ATS at home. New Orleans has Drew Brees and experienced Mark Brunell to turn to and the Saints are 24-10 ATS in road games.

Wagering on Hockey’s Hotties

The NHL season is winding down to a few precious games and now is the time to ride the teams that are making the playoff push and playing their best hockey of the season. Don’t waste time trying to pick and choose situations, go with certain NHL teams that are already giving you what you want, victories.

The Vancouver Canucks for most of the season were constantly looking in the rearview mirror, trying to see who might be gaining on them. Since February, the Canucks have won 12 of 15 and have adjusted their sights on what is in front of them, not behind. Vancouver is fifth in the Western Conference and if they can keep up this torrid pace, they will have chance to catch Chicago, taking home ice advantage away from the Blackhawks for playoff matchup. The schedule is advantageous, only having to meet Chicago and Northwest Division leader Calgary once, while hoping to pound away on cellar dwelling Colorado four more times.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are the defending Eastern Conference champions and are finally playing back to that level with 9-1 record in last 10 games. Pittsburgh’s best players are playing like it, as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal are all scoring and making solid contributions nightly. The Penguins have finally tightened up in their own end and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has gained confidence, winning 10 of last 13 at home. Pittsburgh was believed to be a suspect playoff possibility, now they are trying to hunt down division rival Philadelphia for fourth seed.

One team Pittsburgh and everyone else better keep a sharp eye on is Carolina, who is 8-2 in last ten contests. The Hurricanes have been receiving production from their second and third lines, which they haven’t with any consistency all season. Coach Paul Maurice is a coach always on the lookout for a hot netminder and he believes he has one right now in Cam Ward. If Carolina can survive upcoming three game road trip, eight of final 11 contests are at RBC Center.

NFL Saturday Games Need to Know Info

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3, 34)

Kerry Collins started to look like a quarterback getting up in years late in the season. Maybe the break will recharge him, but against this Baltimore defense, that might be so easy, as road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 15-5 ATS in the playoffs. The Ravens held Tennessee to just 34 yards rushing in the earlier meeting and have to like their chances if they put up similar numbers, even on the road. This should be like prize fight and if Baltimore wants to knock off the top seed in the AFC, they must knock them out. On offense that means passing when you should run and vice versa. Ray Lewis and his teammates have a lot of confidence working and are 9-2 ATS off a win.

Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.

With the total at 34, Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last two seasons, but Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in the Volunteer state.

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)

Though Arizona won big playoff game, Carolina has to make them feel very unwelcome traveling into the Eastern Time zone where the Cardinals are 2-19 and 7-14 ATS over the past six years. The Panthers can’t stroll into this divisional playoff game, they need to shake Arizona up quickly and have Kurt Warner wearing that frown he has when things are not going his way. Chances are Anquan Bolden will be limited at best, put your best corner, Chris Gamble on Larry Fitzgerald and create over the top help on his side. Arizona gained respect by stopping Atlanta’s running game, test to see how they perform against rested DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Cards are 1-4 ATS after allowing 90 or less yards rushing.

The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Teams like Arizona that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years and won their first postseason contest, are 7-15-1 ATS in next outing.

Week 17 NFL Betting Info

At this juncture we know the New York Giants, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta are in the playoffs, with the latter two still not having a firm spots based on positioning. This means that seven positions have to be filled on Sunday and a total of nine need specific placements before we can say with certainty after the Sunday Night game, which teams are in or out. This week can be as tough as any for NFL bettors in the regular season with so many possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll eliminate what ties mean as possibilities in accessing playoff chances. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 17 numbers.

Miami at New York Jets (Jets -2.5, 43)

The Dolphins win AFC East with a win and the Jets win division with victory and New England loss.

Keys to the Game-
Chad Pennington can stick it to his former team, for not having faith in him to be playoff quarterback. Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road and HUGE key to their success protecting the football. If they commit one or less turnovers, they will break the NFL's single-season record for fewest turnovers in a season. The Dolphins red zone defense needs to hold up one more game, already the best in 53.3 in stopping opponents from scoring touchdown. Can Miami overcome 5-15 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss? The Jets are long shot and they know it, but better to take somebody down with you. Brett Favre has looked every bit of 39 years old since the colder temperatures have developed and he has to have big game for New York to even have chance. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in season finales.

New England at Buffalo (Bills +5.5, 39)

New England win the AFC East with a win and Miami loss or makes the playoffs with a win and Baltimore loss.

Keys to the Game-
New England has gotten off to flying starts the last two weeks and can take Buffalo out of the game early with another quick start. Matt Cassel is playing exceptionally and the defense has looked better with stronger pass rush. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less and must contain Buffalo special teams or this gets dicey. Bill Belicheck’s defense needs to harass QB Trent Edwards into mistakes, if they do, New England moves to 11-6 and 11-5-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (Ravens -11, 37.5)

Baltimore clinches wild card berth with a win or if Miami and New England lose.

Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville could be dangerous opponent for Baltimore, playing with nothing to lose and being huge underdogs. The Ravens will want to break the Jaguars will and have to take away their running game, while running the pigskin themselves with second ranked run offense at 150.3 yards per game. Baltimore needs to kick-start Willis McGahee, since he is true inside-outside runner, compared to Le’Ron McClain. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS on the season and is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win since 2006.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (Vikings -7, 42)

Minnesota wins NFC North with a win or Chicago loss.

Keys to the Game-
The Giants has clinched what they needed and might not bring best effort, but that doesn’t mean Tom Coughlin won’t have his team compete, especially with a week off. Minnesota must reestablish Adrian Peterson, who has been a bobbling machine in recent weeks. They need him to protect the ball better, yet not be too conservative a running threat. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson went back to making poor decisions last week at crucial times, the Giants are too good not take advantage of his mistakes. Jackson must be astute in the passing game. Atlanta only has 98 yards rushing, nonetheless had 32 attempts in the Metrodome, this can’t happen again against the Giants or they move to 15-2 ATS facing teams with winning records.

Chicago at Houston (Texans -3, 46.5)

Chicago wins NFC North with a victory and Minnesota loss or takes Wild Card with win and Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose.

Keys to the Game-
Chicago swept their three-game homestand, yet was far from impressive, especially in the latter two. The last two games were overtime wins versus New Orleans and Green Bay and they were out-gained 670 to 436 total yards. Houston came up flat after four consecutive wins and five covers in a row at Oakland. They will want to finish .500 and have best ever home record at 6-2. The Bears either will have to keep up scoring wise with the Texans averaging 25 points per game at home or cling to the ball with time of possession and ring up enough points. Chicago desperately needs a pass rush on what should be a fast track to offset the talented Texans perimeter game. The Bears are 8-19 ATS versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and must come up big.

Carolina at New Orleans (Saints +1.5, 51.5)

Carolina clinches NFC South and first round bye with a win or Atlanta loss. A defeat and Atlanta victory sends them to the Wild Card round next week.

Keys to the Game-
Talk about your tough situations for Carolina! A victory means a week off, followed by a home game for the Panthers. A loss means playing on the road next week on the presumption Atlanta handles St. Louis, saddled with two straight defeats. This has to be accomplished against a live home underdog who has won four of six, with the two losses totaling six points. The Saints will be throwing the ball around; with Drew Brees chasing Dan Marino’s season passing yards record. This means Julius Peppers and the front four must bring pressure, with the Saints gunning for them. Though Jake Delhomme could likely hit a few deep shots with Steve Smith versus Saints secondary, Carolina would be better served to run the ball and limit their possessions. The Cats are 40-16 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 24 or more points a game.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -13, 39.5)

Tampa Bay clinches Wild Card with a win and Dallas defeat.

Keys to the Game-
Tampa Bay should win this game by running the ball and having Jeff Garcia pick apart Oakland with short passes. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin should have fun dialing up blitzes against JaMarcus Russell. Only concern here is covering big number for a Bucs team that has lost three in a row. Maybe the Raiders 0-7 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two years will help.

Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -1, 42.5)

Dallas clinches Wild Card with a win or Chicago and Tampa Bay both lose. Philadelphia clinches Wild Card with win and losses by Tampa Bay, Minnesota and or Chicago.

Keys to the Game-
It would behoove an emotionally fragile team like Dallas to play well early against an Eagles squad that's sure to be fired up. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 82-50 in the opening 15 minutes. The Cowboys have to pick up the Eagles blitzes and Tony Romo can not continue to play like an average Joe quarterback. Defensively, Dallas had been solid until last week, they need to control Brian Westbrook and make Donovan McNabb jumpy in the pocket. The Boys are stellar 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Philadelphia gave up on the running game again too easily in loss to Washington. With the Eagles wide receivers dropping seven catch-able passes last week, the receivers focus has to be improved no matter who is available. The defense has to harass Romo who has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions in two December meetings with Philly. The Birds are 8-1 ATS off a NFC East loss rival over the last three years.

Carolina Favored with Home Field Advantage

For this Monday Night, ESPN has their best game involving two exceptional teams from the NFC South. Carolina is the home team in this battle, facing Tampa Bay for sole possession of first place in the division. Based on how the season is playing out in NFL’s best and most competitive division, the Panthers could have a distinct edge. The four teams in this division are 22-2, 17-6-1 against the spread in 2008. (Not counting Saints trip to England as home game)

Tampa Bay can be coldly efficient, if not explosive, and won their fourth straight game, in 23-20 non-cover against New Orleans last week. Quarterback Jeff Garcia completed just 9 of 23 passes for 119 yards, and Tampa Bay gained only 254 yards of total offense, but the defense picked off three passes and held the Saints to 44 yards rushing on 18 carries. Traveling to Charlotte, they are in the middle of playing three NFC South contests.

The modus operandi for Jon Gruden is simple: control the clock, make one or two big plays and use a bone-crunching defense to wear down opponents. Running back Earnest Graham was recently lost for the year with an ankle injury, but it coincided with the return of Carnell Williams, out for 15 months (knee). The “Cadillac” has 16 carries in two games and scored his first touchdown since September 2007 in the win over New Orleans. Warrick Dunn has assumed the lead role, but the 12-year veteran isn’t the featured back of season’s past. He did, however, net his only 100-yard game of the year in the previous meeting with Carolina, a 27-3 win for Tampa Bay on Oct. 12. The Buccaneers are 29-2 ATS when they win straight up away in division games.

Carolina had its back against the wall in Green Bay last week, but a 54-yard completion from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith to the Packers 1-yard line set up the winning touchdown with 1:30 to play in a 35-31 win.

DeAngelo Williams scored a career-high four touchdowns and gets a chance to avenge his worst game of the season, an 11-carry, 27-yard effort at Tampa Bay. He’s all but wrestled the position away from rookie Jonathan Stewart, who’s nursing a heel injury and was caught from behind at the Green Bay 3-yard line on a 43-yard run last week. Williams scored all four his touchdowns from the 1-yard line against the Packers. The Panthers are 17-6 ATS in home games after being out-gained by opposition by 100 or more total yards in last game.

Delhomme was picked off three times in the earlier 27-3 loss to the Bucs but has had their number in previous meetings, throwing for 948 yards and five touchdowns in his last four starts in the series. The quarterback has done his best work at home, leading the Panthers to a perfect 6-0 (3-2-1 ATS) mark while throwing nine of his 12 touchdown passes but just three of his nine interceptions.

Smith continued his tear over the last six weeks, topping the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in seven games and started the run with 112 yards at Tampa Bay.

Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorite, with a total of 38. In one of the best angles you will find this season, the Panthers 17-0 UNDER at home against division foes.

Tampa Bay covers if they can get off to a better start. The Bucs have been tempting fate with 6-1 record when the other team scores first. True, it speaks to resolve and an excellent defense; however in big games on the road, they could be caught. Tampa Bay is average in third down conversions and could keep the Panthers on the field by converting at a higher rate. Carolina has allowed over 138 yards rushing per game the last month, Gruden assuredly will ride his “Cadillac”, trying to make the underdog 10-4 ATS.

Carolina covers if the defense steps up. The Cats “D” has surrendered 98 points the last three weeks, totally unacceptable for a team with real postseason aspirations. Coach John Fox defenders need to keep Garcia in a bubble, not letting his escape to beat them. At least the Panthers are winning the turnover battle and are 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. On offense, be imaginative like they were against Green Bay and be the aggressor.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.