Are you Trusting 3rd String Cleveland QB to Cover?

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold, let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on favorites like the Eagles, off a win against a division rival, when playing football on the first day of a new work week. This system is 30-10 ATS, 75 percent the last decade.

MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it

As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.

The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.

Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.

In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.

Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.

Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.

Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.

Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.