It's rare that most people in the world are having a better week than Tiger Woods

Sorry I had to miss you yesterday, too much to do. When we last posted these we went 2-1 and today have CBB system that is 84.6 percent. The Top Trend is in the NBA at sparkling 11-1 and Steve of the LLC looks to nail yet another winner, this time in the NFL. Good Luck

What I thought today – The whole Tiger Woods thing is amazing. People wonder how he could do such a thing and it’s just another in the never ending line of athletes who believe after time they are infallible. His modest contrition was followed like usual blaming of the media for making his life awful and the rumors being unjust and unfair. Though I have always been a Tiger supporter, I’m disappointed not only with his infidelity, but his apology has to come with blaming someone else. Of course if he hadn’t been hawking around, this wouldn’t have happened, every think of that Eldrick? I guess he’s given the name “Tiger” a whole new meaning.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) I know this system isn’t going to make everyone run right out and play it based on the team; however it is the best of the bunch today. PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Marist, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. It’s comforting to have 22-4 ATS record to back you up.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Denver is 11-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve is playing the Under is NFL contest tonight.

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Jets and Bills Thursday Preview

Like the New England-Tampa Bay matchup in London, passports will be needed for a New York-Buffalo matchup north of the border at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Despite the hype and revenue this matchup produces, the buzz around Western New York has been the meeting between former Denver head coach Mike Shanahan and the Bills upper brass about the open coaching vacancy left by Dick Jauron.

These division teams are playing for little more than pride at this point although there is a chance the Jets (5-6 SU & ATS) could work their way into the wildcard race yet.

While Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS) sorts out its head coaching situation, interim coach Perry Fewell will run the ship for the rest of the campaign and try to figure out how to generate some points on offense in the final five games. Whether it’s Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, sustained drives have been hard to come by and a rag-tag offensive line, which has been brutal. The Bills had averaged 12.2 points per game in last eight outings before ending their most recent losing streak at three games with 31-14 decision over Miami as four-point home underdogs. The Bills are 8-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over an AFC East rival.

This will be the second meeting between the teams in 2009, and New York will be looking to avenge a 16-13 home defeat. Buffalo has won four of the last six, including both SU and ATS between the clubs in Orchard Park, with the underdog on a 3-0 spread roll. For the Bills, this is a second divisional home game in five days so to speak, and they are 3-1 ATS in this season vs. AFC East rivals after the upset of Miami.

Nevertheless, only six teams average fewer points than Fewell’s crew, and the offense has only four rushing touchdowns heading into Week 13. The Jets, meanwhile, are second (161.3 yards per game) in the league in rushing and boast 14 rushing scores.

New York will be looking for a much better performance from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez than the last time he faced the Bills. The Week 6 loss to Buffalo was the first signs of cracking in the Sanchez foundation. He threw five interceptions, three to rookie Jairus Byrd, and wasted a 210-yard, one-touchdown effort from RB Thomas Jones and a potential 50-yard field-goal try by Jay Feely in overtime saw holder Steve Weatherford unable to handle the snap. The Flyboys are 3-6 ATS since 2005 in the first of two straight road assignments.

Bookmaker.com has New York as three-point favorites in Toronto and the Jets have won just once in five divisional games, both SU & ATS and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC East contests overall. Coach Rex Ryan’s defense held Carolina to six points and 179 yards in the Meadowlands last week and they are 13-3 UNDER in road games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game. The listed total for this clash is 37 points.

Buffalo is 8-3 ATS against Gang Green since 2004 and after forcing four turnovers last Sunday, the Bills are 6-0 UNDER after a game with turnover margin of +3 or better.

This is NFL Network telecast which starts at 8:20E and the UNDER is perfect 6-0 on Thursday night’s this season.


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article

Sunday NFL Contributions

Overall a 2-2 CFB Saturday, with San Diego State a major disappointment not covering against a New Mexico that had not won a game and had beaten them 70-7 the previous season. Anyways, on to the NFL and Bill goes for a second Free Winner, calling for the upset. The Top Trend is in the AFC East and the Best System has lost once in 20 years! Good Luck

You’ve voted Indianapolis as the unbeaten team most likely to make it to Super Bowl, for this week’s poll question, thanks.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall off hand a team having a quarterback throwing five interceptions winning a game, let alone covering a 17-point spread like Iowa did.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a non-conference home team the defeated a non-conference opponent by 21 or more points in last game. Over the last two decades this system is 12-1-1 ATS, 92.3 percent including 2-0 this year. The Colts are such a team.

Free Football Trend-2) The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 150 or more rushing yards per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Buffalo as his top selection this day.

Paul Buck Guaranteed NFL Winner Sunday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

We’ve all heard veteran NFL players talk about the league as “just a business”. If you think of the National Football like say a McDonald’s, you have 32 franchisees within its framework. While Mickey D’s would never allow certain bone-headed people to be in charge of their operations, on Sunday, we saw the differences in a well-run franchise and one’s that should be going out of business or at least hanging signs “Under new ownership”.

The slogan “Pride and Poise” associated with the Oakland franchise is hilarious today and should be replaced with “Polluted and Pitiful”. On Sunday, the Raiders were down 28-0 before registering a first down. JaMarcus Russell is setting new standards for quarterback play in the NFL; even Ryan Leaf will soon be forgotten.

When Al Davis moves on to the big black and silver cloud in the sky, he will have ruined a legacy of innovation and excellence for decades, by not knowing when to step away and being a meddler. Oakland’s ability to overpay for unworthy talent and ridiculous draft choices is now looked upon as “well its Oakland”. As written by Len Pasquarelli of ESPN, of the Raiders 56 viable possessions (not including drives with under two minutes in the half) they have 34 series that lasted three plays or less and 40 that were for five snaps or fewer.

Contrast that with the Giants, a well run franchise, with coach Tom Coughlin as head coach. Coughlin had the good sense to reinvent a part of himself and an underachieving team responded by winning a Super Bowl and has been an annual contender for years. New York was easily more than a two touchdown favorite and the word out of Giants camp was Coughlin was preaching all week not to take the Raiders lightly, stay focused and play our game. New York’s diligence in listening was rewarded with several starters not playing more than two-thirds of the game and virtually all the reserves saw considerable action in 44-7 pasting.

The same was true in St. Louis, as certain folks believed Minnesota might be flat on short week and playing road game against winless Rams. The Vikings went off as 10.5-point favorites and whether they were ready to play or not, it was impossible to tell because of the Rams ineptness. St. Louis is another franchise that has been run aground and at least has made an attempt to change with new people in all keys management positions. But with a shocking lack of talent, this isn’t one of those Miami Dolphins turnarounds, this will take time.

Whatever your opinion of Brett Favre, give the Vikings front office their due, they are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) for the first time in six years and pegged the person they believed could make them a true Super Bowl contender.

Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota and the Giants all know what lies ahead for 2009 and their perspectives are very different.

You had to be really impressed with Atlanta coach Mike Smith and how his staff wisely used the bye week. The Falcons used new toy TE Tony Gonzalez like a child, throwing to him over and over again in the first few games, making their home-run hitter and budding star Roddy White an afterthought. Smith had QB Matt Ryan intent on throwing the ball on the perimeter; against what were thought to be very good San Francisco corners. Ryan was on target and White caught eight passes that he turned into 210 yards in Falcons flushing of the Niners 45-10 as one-point underdogs. Interestingly, the money came all Sunday morning on Atlanta, starting the day as 2.5-point underdogs. Next Sunday’s game with Chicago is tantalizing.

While Cincinnati is well-known for its frugal methods (cheap in the real world) they deserve accolades for staying with coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have had a series of injury-plagued seasons and lacked the depth to replace with quality players. Carson Palmer, either being injured or playing hurt, has cost them in two of the last three seasons. Cincinnati has played five games with each contest being decided by a touchdown or less, but at least they are finding ways to win with rededicated Cedric Benson on offense and more aggressive defense. The Cats host Houston and they are 5-13-2 ATS as non-division home favorites.

In the first half, the Dallas Cowboys players where shaking their heads after every bad play, a real sign of each player on his own page. Yes, they sucked it up and came back and defeated Kansas City in non-cover 26-20, but when you consider Oakland defeated the Chiefs in four quarters, that’s a real cause for concern. We’ll see how much it means after their bye week.

I’m convinced the Houston Texans will never be more than a 9-7 team and hardly ever worse than 7-9 with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Houston’s game against Arizona sums up Shaub in a nutshell. The Texans never scored in the first half, trailing 21-0. Shaub finally got in sync with his receivers and Houston scored 21 unanswered points to tie the score at 21. With a chance to drive his team to take the lead, Shaub stared down his receiver like he was looking at Megan Fox, and frequently burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted the pass for a Pick Six. Shaub did drive his team back down the field for tying score, but threw a jittery pass in the end zone and missed open receiver on great play call. The Texans are in the midst of playing four of five on the road and chances are they are just as likely to be a good bet as bad. Next up is Cincinnati and Houston is 44-44 ATS since joining the league against the AFC.

Surprised the Raiders aren’t trying to make deal for Derrick Anderson after he was 2 for 17 and Cleveland still won and covered. To Anderson’s credit he actually completed one more pass making his completion percentage 15 percent, it just happen to be to Buffalo player. Cleveland ended 10-game losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) at Buffalo and heads to Pittsburgh where they are 1-9 (3-7 ATS) since becoming the Browns again in 1999.

Coach Dick Jauron and his offensive staff are clueless. They acquire Terrell Owens and have no idea how to get him the ball. The Bills are like somebody who always fries steaks in a pan, because the meat is usually cheap. Somebody buys them a sharp new grill and some beautifully tender porterhouse steaks to grill up. Instead, what do these people do with delicious looking meat, what they always, fry it in the pan. Unless Buffalo miraculously wins its next three games before the bye, I wouldn’t stray too far from the phone if I was Jauron, who is 4-13 and 6-11 ATS since opening 4-0 in 2008.

NFL Week 4 Previews

This Sunday starts the bye weeks in the NFL, which means fewer offerings to choose from; however there are a few real beauties to tug at the heart of any sports bettor. Baltimore has looked as strong as any team in the league and will have chance to prove their worth in New England. Surprising unbeatens New Orleans and the Jets will try and stay that way in Bayou country. Denver was one of the top play against teams for season wins, but they are making a mockery of those tickets with 3-0 start and invite Dallas to town. Last year’s AFC division champions Tennessee and Miami will against try to scratch in the win column for first time in 2009.

Baltimore at New England 1:00E CBS

Baltimore (3-0 SU&ATS) has been one the AFC’s best teams in the first three weeks, picking up right where they left off a year ago. The Ravens continue to be an extremely reliable bet under coach John Harbaugh, going 17-5 against the spread. So far Baltimore is dominating, outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. Here they will take on a 2-1 New England (1-2 ATS) club that comes off its best performance of the year, a 26-10 win over previously unbeaten Atlanta. The Patriots have been solid in the month of October under head coach Bill Belichick with a 24-12 ATS record. They have also won each of the last four meetings with the Ravens, going 3-1 ATS in that span, but will be looking to snap a stretch of five straight losses at home when coming off another home game.

Keys to the Game-

Most experts are wondering how New England is sixth in total defense. Baltimore will want to find out themselves, lining up in I-formation and ramming it down the Patriots throat and see how they react. QB Joe Flacco is taking more shots down the field and New England’s secondary isn’t alarming anyone. The Ravens are ravenous 9-2 ATS after a win by 10 or more points and if Tom Brady thought he’s seen pressure thus far, wait until he sees all the black helmets coming his way this week.

The Patriots ran the ball 39 times last week and need to have that same type of commit against Baltimore. The yards won’t come freely against Ray Lewis and company, but it will slow down pass rush and establish New England can play just as physical. This helps the passing game if safety Ed Reed is forced to be involved against the run. New England is 41-17-2 ATS as non-division home favorite and Tom Brady needs pass protection and receivers to get open against sticky Ravens secondary. The Pats will not only need big game from Randy Moss, but other pass catchers must come thru also.

3DW Line – New England 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -1.5, 45

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans 4:05E CBS

Two unbeaten teams square off in a non-conference showdown in New Orleans, as the Saints host the Jets. The Saints (3-0 SU&ATS) came into 2009 with high expectations; the Jets did not, making this meeting all the more intriguing. In fact, two of New York’s first three wins came as an underdog. The Jets (3-0 SU&ATS) will be looking to extend a five-game SU & ATS winning streak by road teams in this head-to-head series. They have a 4-1 SU & ATS edge over the Saints in those five games; however have lost four in a row SU & ATS on the road vs. NFC foes. New Orleans has scored 40.0 points per game in its sensational start and has now gone 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Head coach Sean Payton’s team is on a 6-1-1 ATS stretch at home and has scored 23 points or more in 13 straight contests as hosts.

Keys to the Game-

The wheels will be spinning as Rex Ryan matches defensive prowess with Sean Payton’s offense. This is a different sort of game for the New York defense, as they have brought pressure incessantly. Drew Brees has the smarts and personnel to beat New York defenders, thus, look for Ryan to have game plan to make the Saints work for every first down. The Jets are 7-2 ATS off a win and understand the best way to prevent New Orleans from scoring is running the ball effectively and keeping Brees as spectator. New York is ninth in rushing yards but must do better than on 3.7 yards per carry.

New Orleans film study has shown nobody has gotten the Jets out of comfort zone early. Look for coach Payton and Brees to attack New York like a native with a fresh plate of jambalaya. Move the ball around, score early and see if Mark Sanchez can play from behind. The Flyboys are allowing 3.9 yards per carry, keep feeding the running game that averages five YPC. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS as a favorite and has forced three turnovers per game. Force the Jets to play perfect football on the road.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 6.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -7.5, 45.5

Tennessee at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The AFC South was believed to be premier division again in 2009, but only Indianapolis boasts a winning record after three weeks. The most disappointing team is Tennessee (1-2 ATS), who comes into this divisional affair at Jacksonville with a 0-3 mark. The Titans have now lost their last five games overall and are 1-4 ATS in that span. That represents their longest losing skid since the opening of the 2006 campaign. They have also lost their last three vs. AFC South rivals, both SU & ATS. Tennessee has played well in Jacksonville though, going 8-4 SU & ATS the last dozen trips. The Jaguars (1-2, 2-1 ATS) broke in the win column last week at Houston and are 2-0 ATS in divisional games thus far. However, they are on a brutal 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS run as hosts in what could be again a far less than capacity crowd. Nine of the last 13 games between these teams in Jacksonville have gone UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Jeff Fisher has dismissed all playoff talk; he just wants his team to win a game. Kerry Collins is catching heat in Nashville, but he wishes his receivers would catch more of his passes, with double digits drops on the season. The running game is sixth in the league and could be even more effective with improved passing. The Titans special teams have been tumultuous; costing them much needed win in New Jersey last Sunday. Just being averaging this week would be severe upgrade. Tennessee is 7-2 ATS as road favorite and must contain Maurice Jones-Drew; otherwise 29th rated pass defense could really be exploited.

Jacksonville feels much better after road win in Houston and thinks they are figuring things out. Defensively, they continue to tweak the pass-rushing elements of its 3-4 defense. The idea is to cause uncertainty and Kerry Collins isn’t a bowl of confidence at the moment. In order to raise havoc, the Jaguars have to limit RB Chris Johnson, who presents problems in the open field. The Jags may be lousy at home, but they are 17-6 ATS off a road win against a division rival. Give David Garrard time in the pocket and he takes advantage of Titans secondary and suddenly Jacksonville is .500.

3DW Line – Jacksonville by 2

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Tennessee -3, 41.5

Buffalo at Miami 4:05E CBS

Buffalo and Miami are already in trouble in the AFC East race, and each has a difficult opening three games to thank for it. Miami (0-3 SU&ATS) has yet to win after finishing 11-5 a year ago. All three of their opponents have a winning record this season, thanks in part to playing the Dolphins. Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) has a win over Tampa Bay to its credit but sandwiched that with unimaginable loss at New England and being beaten by better New Orleans club. For the Dolphins, this will be the first divisional test of 2009, and they swept the Bills a year ago as part of a 4-2 SU & ATS mark vs. AFC East rivals. They are just 3-14 ATS as divisional hosts the last six seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS on the road in divisional games under coach Dick Jauron, and 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS against Miami since 2004. Favorites have accumulated an 18-7 SU & 16-9 ATS record in the last 25 series meetings.

Keys to the Game –

Buffalo didn’t blitz as much against Drew Brees, respecting his knowledge and big play talent. That won’t be the case this week, as it will be the kitchen sink and whatever else they can round up as Chad Henne makes first NFL start. If Henne is rattled, the Bills should unleash passing game. It’s a travesty Terrell Owens 185-game streak of pass catches came to an end. Buffalo didn’t bring T.O. in to be decoy, yet he and Lee Evans have 13 total receptions, that is ridiculous offensive concept. Buffalo is 3-10-1 ATS as AFC East road favorites, they will have to avoid being run on like last week (222 yards) if they want to side-step another defeat.

Chad Henne is going to have WTF moments after misreading Buffalo blitzes, which means he better know where tight end Anthony Fasono is at all times, similar to Linus. (Security blanket, work with me) Miami will have to establish running game to take pressure off Henne and the Dolphins O-line should draw confidence from Bills performance last week. The Fins D is third against the run at 66 yards per game and would like to make Buffalo as one-dimensional as possible. Miami desperately needs a W and to reestablish home field edge where they are only 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons.

3DWLine –Miami by 3.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Buffalo -1, 37

Dallas at Denver 4:15E FOX

The Broncos (3-0 ATS) have been the biggest surprise in the NFL in the early going, winning their first three games in the face of an expected rebuilding campaign. Since the miracle at Cincinnati, the Broncos have outscored their next two opponents by a 50-9 margin. If you consider what the Bengals have done since, Denver’s resume looks even stronger. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team will return home for a showdown with Dallas in Week 4, trying to improve a record of 1-5 ATS when hosting the NFC since 2006. The Cowboys (2-1 SU&ATS) are back on the road after a two-game homestand, making their first trip to the Mile High City since Jay-Z rapped “Hard Knock Life”. Dallas is 7-1 ATS as road favorites of seven-points or less. The last five meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

How did Denver find the NFL’s top defense after finishing 29th last season? It’s helped playing the Browns and Raiders the last two weeks, nevertheless only one opponent has scored a touchdown on the Broncos this season. This will be truer litmus test, as the last two foes had not capacity to throw the ball down the field, which Tony Romo does. The Dallas QB isn’t always the sharpest knife in Ginzu collection and will take the bait throwing into bad coverage situations. The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS off a 14-point or more victory and will have to be stout in defensive line and open up offense for Kyle Orton.

As it turns out, Romo has a little Jessica Simpson in him, he likes being the star. Coach Wade Phillips and OC Jason Garrett would just as soon continue to run for 200 yards a game and have Romo make enough plays for Dallas to score 28 points per game. Romo has flair (good and bad), but the coaches would rather see 2nd and 4, compared to 2nd and 10. On defense, Dallas wants to win first down in the trenches, forcing Orton to be playmaker from the pocket. The Boys like their chances in that matchup. The Cowboys are 7-1-1 ATS as small change faves (three or less) and can be expected to use similar coverage tactics on enigmatic Brandon Marshall which worked so well on Steve Smith last Monday.

3DWLine – Denver 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 42.5

NFL Week 3 Inside Info

The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are two the teams that need to get season turned in the right direction quickly or preseason aspirations might be unfounded. The San Francisco 49ers has adopted the personality of their coach Mike Singletary and will try and pull another surprise in Minnesota on Sunday. Drew Brees has New Orleans en fuego, but they are expected to having a rugged time in Buffalo. Can Cincinnati end home drought to the Super Bowl champions? That question and many others will be answered as theirs Week 3 of the NFL commences.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Titans and Jets aren’t divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fisher’s team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets’ Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.

Keys to the Game-

Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and they’ve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.

The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an “I told you so manner”. New York’s front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.

3DWLine – N.Y. Jets -7

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Jets -2, 37

San Francisco at Minnesota 1:00E FOX

Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).

Keys to the Game-

The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. It’s true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasn’t gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), they’ll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.

San Francisco’s defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; they’ll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -7, 39.5

Atlanta at New England 1:00E FOX

The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFL’s better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

It’s not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just don’t look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.

Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New England’s defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin he’s wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New England by 1

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -4.5, 46.5

New Orleans at Buffalo 4:05E FOX

New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.

Keys to the Game –

The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that “hits” on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bay’s drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards can’t turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6, 51.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals’, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.

Keys to the Game-

It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasn’t won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.

The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 5.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3.5, 37.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Tom Brady returns for Monday Night Football

Not even the absence of Tom Brady last year stopped the Patriots from continuing their dominance of Buffalo. New England swept a fifth straight season series (8-2 ATS) from its AFC East rival and takes an 11-game series winning streak into the Monday night opener at Gillette Stadium. The Bills haven’t defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 campaign, and even worse is they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any meeting since that game.

Perhaps the debut of flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens can get Buffalo over the hump against New England and set the tone for the team’s first playoff season since 1999.

But as Boston rockers Aerosmith would suggest: Dream On.

Brady, not Owens, will be the center of attention in this one after going down in last year’s opener and missing the remainder of the season following a record-setting 2007. Brady’s reconstructed ACL and MCL have passed all the tests, and he’s still got Randy Moss and Wes Welker as primary targets and another potential home-run threat in Joey Galloway. The Patriots have covered six of last eight games against the AFC.

Buffalo’s defense needs to be better and more consistent, especially against the run. Even with Marcus Stroud up front, the unit gave up 121.6 rushing yards per game and 18 touchdowns, ranking 22nd and tied for 24th in those categories, respectively. The Bills also had only 24 sacks, which prompted the drafting of Aaron Maybin (1a-Penn State) at No. 11 overall. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks with 12. One matchup to watch closely is right end Aaron Schobel, who missed the last 11 games of last season with a foot injury, against Patriots left tackle Matt Light. After 5-1 start last season, the Bills closed 2-8 and 3-7 ATS.

Offensively, with Marshawn Lynch serving the first of his three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy the Bills will turn to Fred Jackson and Xavier Omon for ground work. Lynch topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, while Jackson (571 yards) averaged 4.4 yards on 130 carries in 2008. The Bills are only 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen trips to New England.

New England could also use a three-pronged running game. Laurence Maroney is still considered the starter, but he’s on thin ice and coming off an injury that limited him to a 28-carry year. Fred Taylor, formerly of Jacksonville, wasn’t given a contract to watch from the sideline and will see action. Pats backers have been taking it on the chin at home with 3-8 ATS record since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New England favored by 11 over the Bills, with a total of 46.5. The UNDER has been good 17 times in last 22 matchups and the Patriots have not covered their last seven home games as favorites of 10 or more points. Here is a look at how either team covers the spread.

Buffalo covers if they attack New England vertically. The Bills didn’t bring in T.O. to run five yard out-routes, they need him to be dynamic presence in pushing the ball downfield. This could open up chances for Lee Evans who also has breakaway speed with big play explosiveness. The New England secondary isn’t exactly rock solid at the moment and if Bills linemen can keep Trent Edwards clean, they will have opportunities. Though Brady looked comfortable in limited action in the preseason, every quarterback who has gone thru major knee surgery, has to be a little nervous with players around their feet, it’s only natural. The best way to bother Brady is with pressure. If the Bills can execute properly they could make this a touchdown or less contest.

New England covers because they have no fear of the Bills and have won last 11 meetings by 22.7 points per game. Coach Bill Belichick will want to have Brady get comfortable right away, with quick throws to Welker and Moss out of the shotgun. This opens up numerous options in the offense and if the Buffalo pass rush is anywhere as anemic as last season, the Pats explode. The Patriots are not 100 percent situated on defense, especially without Richard Seymour, nonetheless that’s better than the Bills offensive setup, who fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert September 4, 10 days before this game. Sounds like Pats by say 22.

Monday Night Football System - Play On a favorite of 10 or more points. This system is 15-8 ATS, 65.2 percent with the favored team 22-1 straight up.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Let the football betting commence

It’s only a meaningless NFL preseason contest, but who cares, the NFL is back on TV, which means the regular season is fast approaching. Buffalo and Tennessee will play in the annual Hall of Fame game from Canton, OH. On Saturday, a six-man class was enshrined, with wide receiver Bob Hayes, guard Randall McDaniel, defensive end Bruce Smith, linebacker Derrick Thomas, Buffalo Bills owner Ralph Wilson, and defensive back Rod Woodson being honored.

Later on NBC starting at 8 Eastern, the Bills and Titans will commence to cracking shoulder pads and trading helmet paint.

Buffalo made a splashy move in signing flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Bills want to break streak of three consecutive 7-9 seasons (26-21-1 ATS) and try to make leap to at least be wild card team. Owens should fit nicely with Lee Evans on the other side and make Buffalo difficult to stop in the red zone, with four receiver sets that include Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish.

Quarterback Trent Edwards should see limited minutes at best, with backups Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gibran Hamdan seeing the bulk of the work.

Coach Dick Jauron is 5-7 and 7-5 ATS in the preseason in Buffalo and will coach squad that is 6-0 ATS in first exhibition game since 2003. With the Bills a three-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, Jauron is 7-0 against the oddsmakers as underdog.

Tennessee’s tremendous 13-3 season came to disappointing end with first playoff game ouster by Baltimore, 13-10 at home as three-point favorites. Kerry Collins returns for 15th season as quarterback and is the clear number one man in Tennessee. Vince Young is the primary backup and has a lot of work to do this August to restore dwindling NFL career.

The Titans will again feature a strong rushing attack with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but the receiving core is still a weakness. Maybe free agent acquisition Nate Washington from Pittsburgh and top draft choice Kenny Britt can add some life.

Defensively, a gaping hole was left when Albert Haynesworth left for Washington via free agency. For most teams, this would be devastating loss; however with Jeff Fisher as coach, he usually finds a way to mask deficiencies. Fisher is 29-26 SU and 28-25-2 ATS in the preseason and 18-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3.

Except for 1966, there has been a Hall of Fame game every year since 1962 and neither Buffalo nor Tennessee has won here in two previous tries.

NFL Draft – Who got it right and who screwed up

When you think about it, what goes into selecting young men to build a football team, it is a lot like a NASCAR race. The strong teams have the right people in place to succeed and they have a very clear understanding of the task, no matter where their position is in the field (draft board). Others view the race (upcoming season) as reason to take chances and try to make the right moves that will help not only this year, but in the future as well. Also, there are others who could have the best car in the field and they would go hire Cal Naughton, Jr. as their driver.

The NFL draft’s impact as a whole is seldom felt or correctly determined until three or more years down the road, when all aspects can be judged. Were starters added, based on value of draft position and was adequate depth brought in to help when injuries occur. Nevertheless, subjective evaluation can be determined by where most experts thought players should be drafted and how each NFL team presumably improved there stock for upcoming season and beyond.

Teams Taking Step Forward

Kansas City Chiefs

For the second year in a row, the Chiefs added to foundation of turnaround with a completely new front office. The New England flavor was apparent with new Kansas City GM Scott Pioli running the show. The defensive front is a priority, taking DE Tyson Jackson and DT Alex Magee to blend with Glenn Dorsey. If this group matures quickly, they can cover up other defensive weaknesses and within a year or two the Chiefs are right in the thick of AFC West race again, with San Diego and Denver coming back to the pack.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The running game slipped to 18th last season in north Florida and coach Jack Del Rio needed reinforcements to upgrade the offensive line to play his preferred style. Picking offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton takes Jacksonville towards short term goal of establishing running game and protecting quarterback David Garrard.

Cincinnati Bengals

Some draftniks were not as impressed with the Bengals draft as whole, but for a team needing something more than a collection of average players, Cincinnati met those requirements. Supposedly OT Andre Smith and LB Rey Maulaluga have character issues, but that is why coaches are asked to make players accountable. How has Randy Moss done in New England, trouble-maker, I think not. These two are arguably as good as any players at there positions coming out of college and neither is finished product, meaning with proper coaching, they have room to grow. DE Michael Johnson could be passing rushing specialist off the edge and TE Chase Coffman has to be inviting target to Carson Palmer as real threat all over the field.

New York Jets

Give credit to GM Mike Tannenbaum for being aggressive and going after the player he wanted in Mark Sanchez. The feeling one gets in watching Sanchez is he seems ideal for New York, with confident easy manner. He might not be prototypical laser thrower, but he can make all the right throws and has look of natural born leader. RB Shonn Green doesn’t have 0-60 speed, but he makes people miss in the hole and runs for the tough yards on third down. Did a lot with a little.

New England Patriots

The best organization in football flows like the St. Charles River. After just missing on perfect year and another Super Bowl in 2007, New England has committed to rebuilding with youth, with not much perceptible dip in productivity, after finishing 11-5 with a quarterback who had essentially not played in the NFL before last year. S Patrick Chang and CB Darius Butler should make secondary better, possibly as soon as late in the season. DT Ron Brace helps keep defensive front stout and three offensive linemen if as good as the Patriots believe, will add depth and be possible replacements down the line. As usual, Bill Belichick secured even more future picks. Rollin’ down the river.

Green Bay Packers

General Manager Ted Thompson took a great deal of heat for Brett Favre ordeal last year, but this is his strength and it showed. B.J. Raji is perfect nose tackle in new 3-4 defense scheme and Clay Mathews is versatile, intelligent linebacker who adds spice to what has been vanilla defense. The offensive linemen will be expected to work their way up the ladder as eventual replacements.

Teams Taking Step Backward

Oakland Raiders

Honestly have no idea if Darius Heyward-Bey will be a star, but I do know the seventh player taken in the draft should be a fairly complete player. Some TV analysts were trying to cover up for Al Davis saying Cliff Branch was raw player coming out of college, who cares, that was 37 years ago. You seldom hear of a top 10 pick exceeding expectations, however you hear about a whole truck-full that doesn’t live up to expectations. Oakland is smarter than everyone else, that is why they drafted S Michael Mitchell, whom most projected as latter round draft choice. Another throw away draft for organization living in the past.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers need a quarterback, but having seen Byron Leftwich play in the NFL all these years, Josh Freeman looks like the second coming. The big man has all the intangibles, however most agree, something is missing. The windup delivery should surface as problem and he doesn’t possess the greatest mobility, which would be less of issue if he released the ball quicker. DT Roy Miller is known as plugger and DE Kyle Moore has potential, not what you would call electrifying.

Buffalo Bills

Aaron Maybin may be the pass rushing specialist the Bills have lacked at linebacker for years; nonetheless, the term “one year wonder” has to creep into conversation, since that is how long he started at Penn State. Trading away Jason Peters meant offensive line needs had to be addressed and neither C Eric Wood nor Andy Levitre was not distinguished players who overwhelmed scouts. CB Jairus Byrd could save this pedestrian looking group for a team off a trio of 7-9 seasons.

MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it

As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.

The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.

Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.

In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.

Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.

Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.

Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.

Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting the NFL

The Buffalo Bills have lost three of their last four games and only covered two of last six contests. Opening the season 4-0 is looking a lot less impressive, considering the four victims were Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and St. Louis. The NFL has few secrets and teams have to adjust quickly once figured out. Opponents have determined the best way to stifle Bills offense. The Bills had a number of big plays with receiver Lee Evans, however defenses have started double-teaming him, focus on stopping the running game on early downs and man up on short passing game. Until the Buffalo coaching staff finds ways to adjust, hard to back the Bills.

East of Dallas, their might not be a more disappointing team in football than Jacksonville. This was supposed to be breakout season. The Jaguars are believed to be a physical running team, yet are 17th in rushing and 19th in stopping the run. They reached rock bottom is losing to Cincinnati last week as Cedric (Evinrude) Benson rushed for 104 yards, that’s right boat boy got a hundred plus. Jacksonville spent a lot of money on upgrading secondary, it hasn’t worked and the Jaguars are going nowhere in the AFC South.

Watching Dallas get whacked by the Giants, the thought occurred Brad Johnson should have retired at halftime. Tony Romo is far from the only problem with the Cowboys, as the offensive line is playing horrible considering the talent. Dallas is 3-11 ATS since last December and counting.

Looking at the schedule from opponent’s ability, Detroit has a shot at 0-16. Though it is unlikely to happen, they will be an underdog by a minimum of three points in any given game the rest of the year. The Lions have covered three of last four and will play five home games the rest of the way.

The Oakland Raiders, what a sorry franchise. Al Davis spent all kinds of money overpaying for free agents and since another season is being flushed, now he’s going to dump some of them so not to have to pay scheduled bonuses in the off-season. He’s like the guy in the commercial who buys the painting and wants to turn around and sell it. Lane Kiffen at least left with his sanity. Al, it’s time to step away, you are legend in the AFL and NFL, turn the reigns over and let somebody rebuild this team to when Pride and Poise actually meant something.

Quick Outs- Brady Quinn gets to start in Cleveland; will it matter if your best receiver keeps dropping touchdown passes?

The Baltimore defense was supposed to be great again, but rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are two of the big reasons for the Ravens being 6-2 and 5-3 against the spread. Wonders never cease in the NFL.

By the end of Week 10, the Arizona Cardinals could have as big a divisional lead as the Tennessee Titans. Based on the past, Arizona is about as safe a bet as a 10-team parlay, yet the competition is so meager, they almost but can’t help but win the NFC West. The Cardinals still have to make two trips back East to Philadelphia and New England, however earning the number two position in the NFC is not out of the range of possibilities. As has been stated here several times this season, given time, Kurt Warner is still a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL.

With the current state of the Denver Broncos, is a 3-5 San Diego squad in the best position to win the AFC West?

I used to follow this all the time and started again. Take the top and bottom four teams in scoring average in each conference. When any two teams of the higher scoring teams play each other, play OVER and when the lower scoring teams play one another play UNDER. I let each team have somewhat of a track record, thus started with week five. The year to date record is 7-2 against the total.

Touchdown favorites in the NFL continue to be a lousy wager with a 14-16 ATS record and home underdogs are even worse at 15-21 against the spread.