Don’t bet on the Cubs coming back

The National League baseball franchise residing in the Windy City is looking all too familiar for its long suffering fans. Picked to finish second in the extremely weak NL Central, the Cubs have the look of a team North Siders are accustomed to, with its usual refrain “Wait till next year”.

Chicago stands at 31-38, in third place in their dreadful division, stocked with the likes of Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Houston. The Cubs are worst wager in the senior circuit at -17 units for a number of reasons.

Coming out of spring training, it was clear the Cubs bats were going to have to carry this club, as the starting pitching was somewhat suspect and the relief pitching uncertain.

The Chicago pitching is rated middle of the road with 3.92 ERA; however that has been helped a great deal by an unexpected source in Carlos Silva, who is 8-2 with 3.01 ERA. Silva’s reincarnation has been about pitching coach Larry Rothchild showing him tapes of his best Minnesota Twins days, when he was more aggressive in throwing strikes and to his credit, has embraced this approach.

Carlos Zambrano (3-5, 5.10 ERA), despite yesterday’s 12-1 rocking chair performance over the Los Angeles Angels, and Randy Wells (3-5, 4.92) have been significant disappointments. Zambrano has lost three and more miles per hour on his fastball and his breaking stuff lacks the bite of younger days. Wells fast start a season ago was considered a mirage by scouts, since his stuff is mostly generic.

Ted Lilly (2-6, 3.42) and Ryan Dempster (5-5, 3.67) have been inconsistent and invariably, their best games have been when the Cubbies other largest problem has arisen.

Chicago is 11th in the NL in runs scored, with a faulty, aging lineup.

For years the Cubs ownership was more interested in making money than putting out a quality product at 1060 W. Addison Street. They sold the sunshine, Harry Carry, Sammy Sosa and benefitted from the neighborhood setting that has just a “few” watering hole establishments.

However, today’s world demands a good product and to sell 40,000 seats daily, winning has to be part of the equation. The Cubs front office went to the other end of the spectrum and has been like Notre Dame with Charley Weis, where a little success meant they were willing to spend a lot of money.

Alfonso Soriano (34 years old) is at 19M this season, being a mediocre fielder, no longer a factor to steal bases and declining hitting skills. Derrick Lee (34) is hitting .234 with 10 home runs in the No. 3 slot in the lineup, while cashing checks for 13.25 M in 2010. Aramis Ramirez (31) should still be in the prime of his career, but again is injured, which probably is a blessing for a supposed slugger with .168 BA. Kosuke Fukudome (33) makes 14M, becoming increasingly a platoon player and according to FOX Sports, is on the trading block.

After a big splash, Geovanny Soto is settling in a decent catcher, but not the star the organization had hoped for after being 2008 Rookie of the Year.

Chicago is 11th in on-base percentage and takes the fifth fewest walks in the NL and has almost no capability to manufacture runs, ranked next to last in stolen bases and lacking speed.
The Cubs are a squad sorely lacking in leadership. Players like Lee and Ramirez are “lead by example guys” and it is clear this group has followed in there inept ways.

Other specimens of poor offense are 15th ranked BA (.233) with no runners on base and 14th ranking with runners in scoring position (.253) among the sixteen clubs in their league.

These supposed “lovable losers” are just as bad or worse in the field. Check these numbers out.

Errors – 14th in fielding percentage
Assists – 14th
Putouts – 14th
Total Chances – 14th

The Cubs have permitted the most unearned runs in the NL.

Even venerable manager Lou Piniella looks tired. He’s picking on White Sox announcer Steve Stone (former Cubs analyst) for the oldest and lamest reasons for voicing opinion about his club.

"And Steve Stone? He's got enough problems doing what he does with the White Sox. What job has he had in baseball besides talking on television or radio? What has he done?"

It sure looks like Sweet Lou is more ready to hang them up then Atlanta’s Bobby Cox.

Can the Cubs return from the dead? Sure they could, however there is little to support a reason as to why. They are .500 at Wrigley and 13-20 on the road.

Against right-handed opposing starters they are 18-28 and in their own division, a floundering 13-20. If the Cubs are favored, the best advice is to run and hide with 22-29 record (-19.4) and they are 1-6 in last seven series.

The future isn’t bright either, beyond unproven youngsters Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin. As we head towards the All-Star break, playing against these Chicago Cubs is your best bet.

Red Sox in "must" win over New York

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two polarizing teams to the general public. A lot of baseball fans complain these teams are on TV all the time and the networks refute the argument by showing the number of eyeballs watching baseball are up significantly when these two rivals are on the flat screen, especially when they face one another.

I have no allegiance to either team, since both are overpriced from betting perspective. Yet today is perfect example why people outside the East Coast quickly tire hearing about these two teams.

Early this morning I opened my computer and on MSN, I read this screaming headline - Yankees bullpen still an enigma.

I thought about that for nanosecond and realized what struck me, the word “still”. Would that be the “still” from last year when Joe Girardi expertly put together a combination of pitchers in the second half of the season that went on to win the World Series for the 27th time for the Yankees or the “still” where this 2010 contingent stood after TWO games with 160 more yet to be played.

I’m quite sure Jon Paul Morosi, the national MLB writer for FOXSports.com is a very good baseball writer with deep insights into the game and a big part of his job is to write articles that will bring thousands of readers so Fox can charge higher rates for advertising, but my god to have diatribe about why New York is having eighth inning issues, when the paint is still wet on a new season border is ridiculous.

When hordes of reporters follow these teams around on a daily basis and the national press is in town, everybody has to have an angle.

Trying to jump into the spirit of the moment, I made up my own headline to be attention grabber for tonight’s televised conflict on ESPN2.

Let’s skip the drama and get to the action OK?

John Lackey makes first start as a Boston pitcher with altered bank account. I’ve thought Lackey has been overrated for the last few years, with the Angels always selling this bulldog image of him, but all I see is 5-8 record with 4.43 ERA against the pinstripes (flat gray for tonight), not exactly legendary. Ruff, ruff or whatever bulldogs do.

Lackey will face Andy Pettitte, who is second among active Major League pitchers with 229 wins and is 19-9 with 4.05 ERA against the BoSox since 1997.

I checked with DiamondSportsbook.com and found Boston as -140 favorites and the total is Under 10, after opening at Over 10. Going thru the StatFox Foxsheets found where Pettitte and the Yankees are 10-0 Under in April the last couple of years. The Yanks have won last seven games after scoring five or more runs and the left-hander is on the mound.

I also found where Boston is 44-13 at Fenway when the total is 10 or higher and 20-8-1 Over when a -150 favorite or less.

Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire and is it coincidence New York is 8-2 when he’s behind the dish?

Here’s my advice, enjoy the game, I hope you have the right side or total and don’t make a bigger deal about than what it is. For real importance get back to me when they meet the first weekend in August.

Written by freelance writer Red Wydley.

Football Wagering Returns Tonight

The second week of the NFL Preseason gets underway with a pair of contests involving mostly elite teams. The headliner will be Philadelphia at Indianapolis, which is a Fox Sports telecast, with New England hosting Cincinnati in the other ballgame. This is often a solid wagering week, as coaches start to really formulate what kind of squad they will put together. Teams coming off losing efforts typically want to rebound, while clubs that won might be inclined to let up a bit and don’t give best efforts.

The Eagles are one such team that is tastier than a Philly cheesesteak in Week 2 of the preseason. Coach Andy Reid is in his 11th season in the City of Brotherly Love and doesn’t place much stock in August football. This is preparation time and his goal is to put together the most talented roster he can, with hopes of winning NFC East and returning to Super Bowl.

In the first game, Reid is reviewing as many players as possible and winning is an afterthought as six consecutive losses (0-6 ATS) prove. However, Reid isn’t foolish and has picked his spots, just like the man he worked under, Mike Holmgren did at Green Bay and Seattle. Reid has shown proclivity of wanting to win off first preseason loss and the Eagles are 7-3, with outstanding 9-0-1 ATS record this week, which includes 5-0 SU and ATS run since 2004.

Indianapolis is an established power in the AFC, yet having a new head coach does bring change. The Colts are notoriously poor preseason team, with 3-16 record and 5-13-1 ATS mark since 2005. Among the questions about Indianapolis, would new coach Jim Caldwell run a different camp than his predecessor Tony Dungy or would preparing for the regular season still be tantamount? The early answer suggests more of the same, with Colts totaling dismal 142 yards of offense last week in 13-3 loss to Minnesota. Without Jim Sorgi as backup quarterback, the fall is precipitous after Peyton Manning, with Curtis Painter and Chris Crane.

Bookmaker.com oddsmakers know these facts and have established Philadelphia as three-point road favorites with total of 36. Indianapolis is just 1-8 on home turf with 1-7-1 ATS mark; however they are 11-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points. The action starts at 8 Eastern and Michael Vick is not expected to even make the trip for Philly, making it less a story this week.

Thirty minutes earlier in the New England area, the Patriots welcome the Bengals. Tom Brady will look to continue his recovery process, this time in front of the home folks. The former Michigan man was 10 of 15 for 100 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and showed little rust. He’ll be matched against a Cincinnati defense not known for stopping the run or the pass.

The line on this encounter has moved significantly, with Cincy signal caller Carson Palmer unlikely to see the field after suffering a moderate high ankle sprain in 17-7 loss to New Orleans. New England opened as 4.5-point favorite and the swiftly moved to a touchdown choice. The injury means extensive playing time for backups J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson’s brother Jordan Palmer.

New England is 21-13 ATS as preseason chalk and they are 10-2 against the spread at home after one or more consecutive straight up wins under Bill Belichick. For underdog players, the most encouraging news is the Pats fit a negative system that states to play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a road win. Teams in this spot are 5-20 ATS, winning by 2.8 points per game.