MLB System has San Diego in world of hurt

The Colorado Rockies lost last night to San Diego 6-3 and all wanna-be contenders for the wild card in the National League did not. That left Colorado with a four game lead in the loss column over San Francisco and Atlanta, with 10 games to play. The Rockies understand what it’s going to take to wrap up their second playoff berth in two years at this juncture.

If we win the rest of our series, nobody catches us,” Rockies manager Jim Tracy said.

They will attempt to stay on that course today in the deciding game of the series again the Padres. Colorado (86-66, +13.5 units) is seeking its fourth straight series win and is sending Jason Hammel (9-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.402 WHIP) to nail it down. The Rockies have won seven of Hammel’s last 10 starts and the right-hander has an ERA of 3.38 over his last seven outings, yet he is only 2-1 during that stretch. “He’s been much better than a 9-8 pitcher for us,” Tracy said.

San Diego (70-83, +1.1 units) has had a miraculous season considering traditional baseball facts. The Padres are the only team in the Major League’s that has allowed 4.8 or more runs per game and tallied less than four runs per game. That means on average, they have lost almost a run per game on a nightly basis.

Compare that to Arizona, whom San Diego is four games ahead in the standings in the NL West, who also has given up 4.8 runs per game, but has scored 4.5 runs per contest. In the bigger picture, the D-Backs have a -60 run differential, while San Diego has more than doubled Arizona’s figure at -133, yet trail the Pads.

How could this be, it’s surprisingly simple and rather random. The Padres are 22-17 in one run games and the Snakes are 20-27.

San Diego will send Clayton Richard (4-2, 4.76, 1.500) to throw off the slap and Bookmaker.com has installed the Friars as +175 road underdogs with a total of 9.5. According to today’s best system, San Diego is in trouble.

Play Against NL road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, allowing 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since 2005, this system has roared to 86-20 record, which is 81.1 percent. There is a comfort level to playing against the Padres, as teams in their situation have lost by 2.6 runs per game when placed in this position.

It’s a fact any system can lose, especially when a team is feeling the pressure of pennant chase, yet even the most skeptical sports bettor has to like the fact Colorado is 25-6 as a home favorite of -150 or more and San Diego is 4-15 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season.

Good Luck!

NL West Heats Up

Exactly one month ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were as close to a lock to win the division as there was in baseball. Manager Joe Torre’s club led the National League West by nine games and was running smoother than a brand new Nissan 370Z on the Pacific Coast Highway. However, baseball’s fortunes can shift gears quickly and over a 162-game schedule, very few teams in the history of the game have managed to avoid rough patches and run wide open all season.

Los Angeles (74-51, +12.4 units) has seen their lead in the division diminish to three games for two reasons, one of their own doing. The Dodgers are 12-16 since July 25, and have a faulty offense to blame. L.A. has scored three or less runs in 13 of its recent 16 losses and it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that without Juan Pierre in the lineup on a regular basis, with Manny Ramirez back patrolling leftfield, there are fewer scoring chances with runners in scoring position. Though the Dodgers won three of four over the Chicago Cubs, they managed to score five total runs in last three contests and are 27-45 after scoring two runs or less three straight games.

The Colorado Rockies (71-54, +14 units) have been the other reason for the club from La-La Land hasn’t been able to get away with playing undistinguished baseball. Since former Dodger manager Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 53-26, proving not to be the mercurial club like in the past. The Rockies have won 18 of last 28 to close the gap to present number and came from behind three times against San Francisco, their nearest wild card competitor, to win the series 3-1, which included last night’s improbable walk off grand slam by Ryan Spilbroghs in the bottom of the 14th. Colorado comes into this series 15-4 after consecutive wins by two runs or less.

The Rockies will be tested mentally, since they have lost 10 of 12 to Los Angeles, including five of six at Coors Field. Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54 ERA) will be the game one hurler for the Rocks and they have won seven of his last 10 starts. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96) who’s needed a directional-finder this month. The young lefty had been pitching brilliantly this season, however since August; he’s walked 15 batters in 19 innings. The increased wildness and the lack of run support (2.3 RPG) have seen the Dodgers lose Kershaw’s last six starts, after winning the previous seven.

This NL West affair opened with the Dodgers as -125 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com and the number has moved against L.A. to -110, with total Un9.5. Colorado is on 26-10 roll at home and has punished lefties, winning 11 of last 12 at Coors. The Rockies are 9-1-1 OVER against teams with a winning record.

The Dodgers have experience in handling Colorado and are 14-5 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and is 15-5 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150, with Kershaw pitching.

This anticipated conflict and series will be available in local markets and on MLB.TV starting at 8:40 Eastern.