Baseball Series Wagering - Halos at Dodgers

In Southern California, it is simply known as the I-5 Freeway Series when these two teams meet annually in interleague action. The interstate is known for its sprawling expanse and both teams play has resembled this roadway. Early in the season both Los Angeles’ teams played like they were stuck in neutral playing very ordinary baseball. However recently, both are like a car that just cleared an accident area, where the road opens up and you can punch the accelerator and take out off.

The Dodgers (36-24, +5.8 units) have been the best team in baseball since May 9, posting a 23-7 record to storm back and recapture first place in the NL West. The Dodgers offense has been relatively steady most of the season and ranks fifth in the National League; however it has been its pitching that has been the difference-maker. They have held opposing teams to three runs or less in 18 of last 30 games and moved from 14th to 8th in ERA in the senior circuit, now at 3.95. Joe Torre’s club doesn’t exactly have a collection of Golden Glover’s; nevertheless they are 15-3 after two straight games where they committed zero errors this season.

The Angels (33-30, +2.3) lost key members in the offseason via free agency and were expected to contend, not control the AL West in 2010. They met the lower expectations set for them playing below .500 since the third game of the season and even their most thrilling moment of the campaign turned into calamity, when their best hitter Kendry Morales fractured his fibula jumping on home plate after smacking walk-off grand slam home run. Baseball experts on ESPN and MLB immediately wrote off the Halos, but they forgot about the manager, Mike Scioscia. Instead of folding, the Angels have persevered; winning 10 of last 13, to move into second place, 1.5 games behind Texas. They will start this series 15-3 in road games after six consecutive starts versus division rivals.

The Blue Crew will have a decided pitching edge in the opener, with Chad Billingsley (6-3, 3.80 ERA) meeting Joel Pineiro (4-6, 5.23). Billingsley is 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in his last six starts and versus the Angels disharmonious bullpen (4.88, 1.664 WHIP), the home team is 10-1 against a horrible pen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last two seasons.

Pineiro snapped a personal three-game losing streak, but was far from impressive in permitting nine hits and four runs over six innings at Seattle in 9-4 triumph and is a disheveled 0-8 in interleague action the last two years. (Team's Record) It stands to reason for the Dodgers to be -164 money line favorite in the opener for online sports betting activists.

Game 1 Edge: Dodgers

If the term “opposites attract”, these teams are a perfect match. Like all cities that support two baseball organizations, when one team is home the other is on the road. That is the case here as the Dodgers are 8-2 on their longest homestand of the season with three games left. This in turn has the Angels away from the Big A for 14 road contests and they’ve held up well with 8-3 record thus far.

Interleague baseball seems to bring out the best and worst of each squad, as the team from Anaheim has one of the best records since 2007 with 39-18 (+17.6) mark. The team playing in Chavez Ravine is among the weakest in baseball at 21-30 (-11.75).

Scott Kazmir (5-5, 5.40) will take the ball for the Halos, having won three of his last four starts. He’s spotted his pitches better of late, but command is his worst enemy. After having a better than 2-to-1 ratio of strikes and walks for his career, he has 39 punch-outs and handed out 27 free passes this year. He’ll be relying on his club’s history that shows 19-7 interleague road record coming into the series.

John Ely (3-2, 3.00) might not throw in the high 90’s, however has displayed pitching acumen by throwing strikes and staying out of trouble. His pinpoint location has kept his team in games and the Dodgers are 6-2 when Ely starts.

Game 2 Edge: Dodgers

Jered Weaver (5-3, 3.20) seldom has two poor outings in a row and he was rocked for 12 hits and six runs his last time out in Oakland. Weaver is tied for the AL lead in K’s with 89 and is 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. He’s been especially fond of Dodger Stadium with a 0.55 ERA in three outings and the Angels are 14-9 in day games this season.

Rookie Carlos Monasterios (3-0, 2.27) was forced into duty when Vicente Padilla went on disabled list and the Dodgers were really hurting for a fifth starter. Despite almost no experience at this level, Monasterious has thrown better than anyone could have imagined and his .215 batting average allowed is the lowest among first year pitchers with two or more starts in a season full of rookie pitchers making big introductions. The Dodgers began this series 23-10 at home.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

This should be an entertaining series with anything possible. The teams have split 12 encounters the last two seasons with the road club taking the series each time. The Dodgers are playing better baseball, have the better bullpen (Closer Jonathan Broxton has converted 15 straight save opportunities) and have been exceptional at home. If the games are tight, the team in the white uniforms is 15-6 in one run affairs, including 9-1 at home. Give the edge to the team from L.A., the one closer to Hollywood.

Series odds: Angels +140, Dodgers -180

3Daily Winners Pick: Dodgers

2010 Record – 3-6

Interleague Baseball is Back

Can you hear the whining already, “I hate interleague play” or “Why do they play these games, nobody cares except for a few series anyways”. Of course most people complaining are either baseball purists who want every starting pitcher to throw nine innings and games to last just over two hours “just like the old days” or online sport betting fanatics who for some reason believe the game is somehow completely different.

Here’s a newsflash, you still have to outscore the other team and you have 27 outs to do so. And if you want to win your wagers, bet the American League until further notice.

The first regular season interleague game was in Texas in June 12, 1997 when San Francisco played the Rangers. The Giants defeated Texas 4-3 (with Darren Oliver the Rangers starting pitcher and he’s back with them this season as reliever) and it’s been all downhill for the National League.

In the previous 13 seasons, the AL has won the season series nine times compared to four for the NL and those from the junior circuit have won the last six in a row, proving their dominance.

The National League actually narrowed the gap last season with 114-138 record, which was better than 2008 when they were 103-149. Where everyone started to take notice of the disparity between the two leagues was 2006. After the AL had won the two previous years 262-241, they hammered the NL 154-98.

National League apologists will blame the designated hitter, more favorable matchups for their counterparts or the weather, but the fact remains over the last six years they are 671-840, .440 win percentage. The answer why for this Grand Canyon-like difference, better organizations in the American League. The top teams have advanced scouting techniques, draft players that fit particular organizations and continually seek improvement.

To see the complete article with detailed charts - click here.

MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

Interleague MLB Play- It’s one-sided

Read a great article this week by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, talking about 70-75 percent of all baseball players dislike interleague play. Among the reasons given are unfamiliarity of players, meaningless matchups (the Pittsburgh vs Washington series was a classic this week), dealing with the DH and unfair schedule for teams within same division. Excuse me while I wipe away the tears for these blockheads. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers whining about having to the play the toughest schedule before last season, how did that work out?

While we all share their pain, enough of us like it. Attendance typically runs ahead of the norm for these games (10 percent last season), suggesting we like the rivalry games and are curious enough to go to the park to see in person players and teams we would not ordinarily be able to. Taking it further, according to Stark’s article, if you subtracted rivalry matchups in each of the last three seasons, interleague attendance was still 7.5 percent higher last year, 4.1 percent bigger in 2007 and 6.0 percent larger in 2006.

For sports bettors, interleague play has created a great deal of opportunity if you follow the K.I.S.S. method. The American League has been the dominant force for better than a decade and not many signs point to change.

To blindly play every American League team since 2003, you would have a 709-565 record (55.7 percent) and netted +94.7 units or about +19 units per year, just betting interleague games. That’s rather eye-opening.

Oddsmakers are doing their best to curtail the situation, by adding margin into AL teams to make them less attractive, however if the National League clubs can’t win, no number is going to chase off enough action to make a big enough difference to those accepting wagers.

It is nothing short of amazing to review the numbers see in the last two years only the New York Mets (17-13, +2.4 units) and Chicago Cubs (14-13, -0.9) have winning records versus the junior circuit. With 14 NL teams having .500 or below records, this equates to 222-291 record, 43.3 percent. In just two years, betting the 16 NL clubs would have cost -57.45 units, meaning you had roughly 2,336 other games to wager on to get your money back for this folly.

Only the St. Louis Cardinals have winning record at 43-38 (+3) the last five years against the AL, showing how wide the differential is between the two leagues in head to head competition.

For the most part, the oddsmakers like those at DiammondSportsbook.com have been in tune with the total, with only a handful of teams sticking out. Over the last couple of years, Atlanta (11-18), San Francisco (11-19) and the Dodgers (11-19) have managed to play UNDER, while Florida (20-10) and Baltimore (21-13) have gone the other direction and been OVER the number.

The Braves have been more consistent in the totals direction over a longer period of time, with 44-32 UNDER mark since 2003. The Cleveland Indians have kept pace with the Bravos in this category with 51-38 UNDER record in the same time frame.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Arizona at 43-33 OVER and the Kansas City Royals at even better 51-37 OVER the last five seasons.

The run line shows potential for interleague play, more so then regular league encounters. In the last two years, games decided by two or more runs were 62 of 83 played the opening weekend of interleague action, which is 74.6 percent. Though the number is small compared to all games played, it does show a trend towards games that are not as close, since normally one run games make up about 28-31 percent on any given year.

Over the last several seasons, a number of teams have shown potential as drawing worthy consideration for the run line; here is what teams matched up.

Boston won by 1.6 runs per game - L5Y
Detroit won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Kansas City won by 1.4 RPG - L2Y
L.A. Angels won by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
L.A. Dodgers lost by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
Minnesota won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Twins won by 1.6 RPG – L5Y
Pittsburgh lost by 2.1 RPG – L5Y
San Francisco lost by 1.5 RPG – L2Y

This should provide good information heading into holiday weekend for profitable interleague action. To see a complete breakdown of every MLB team in interleague play the last decade, click here. Good Luck.