Dual in the Desert of Unbeatens

What is great about Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.

In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn’t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.

How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU’s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.

Coach Gary Patterson’s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here’s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, “Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team…….BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams”.

This does not signify that TCU won’t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.

What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname –The Assassin.

Alas, Boise isn’t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.

Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State’s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school’s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.

DiamondSportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year’s 46 points in San Diego contest. We’ll keep with our Monday night theme. We’ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.

Boise State covers if they can match TCU’s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB’s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.

TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson’s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn’t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson’s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It’s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.

Bowl System – Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)

Can Nevada's Three-headed Monster upset Boise State?

The WAC title is on the line along with potentially a BCS berth in the Fiesta Bowl for Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS). After several beat downs by Boise State, Nevada has lost 69-67 in triple overtime and 41-34 the last two years to the Broncos. Are the Wolf Pack ready to pull the upset this season?

Since 1999, Boise State is 69-2 SU at home with 44-17 ATS record. Coach Chris Peterson is aware his defense allowed more yards than usual in a couple of games, but chalked them up to just contests that turned into shoot-outs his team won and covered handily. Another positive development is the Broncos red zone offense, which has been stellar in recent weeks after providing pedestrian results most of the season. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has been incredibly efficient, throwing 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions. The Broncos average 41.3 points per game and are 25-6 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight contests.

After starting the year slowly on offense, Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) has been molten in last eight games, averaging over 51 points per game. The Wolf Pack running game is the finest in the country at 373.2 yards per game, led by QB Colin Kaepernick and his running mates Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. During this eight-game winning streak, they have averaged 446.6 yards on the ground and posted 43 rushing touchdowns. They have to be encouraged the Broncos allowed 320 yards rushing to Fresno State and 514 total yards to Idaho. Nevada however is 2-8 ATS against ranked teams.

One aspect not being discussed, but is very important is the defenses, as Boise State ranks 15th nationally and Nevada 85th. With how efficient the Broncos are on offense, it would seem the only way the Wolf Pack stop them is by forcing turnovers. That thought process is a problem, since Moore and Boise State have committed 10 turnovers all season. Coach Peterson’s club is 10-2 ATS at home after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has seen Boise State go from 10-point favorites, all the way to 14 and now coming down again, with total of 70. Nevada’s explosive offense is 12-4 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game and 16-6 OVER as a road underdog.

Boise State is 9-0 and 8-1 ATS facing Nevada and is 37-19 against the spread as WAC favorite of 10 points or more.

This WAC mega-encounter begins at 10:15 Eastern on ESPN2.


Note-The System, Trend and Free Pick will return tomorrow.

Boise State Seeks Televised Blowout

Boise State continues its quest for perfection, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was largely seen as highlights. Boise State needs gigantic blowout and to keep winning to set up possible Fiesta Bowl date.

That is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.

This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.

Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.

Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.

Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage anyway we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.

Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State as 23.5-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.

But that doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”

A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.

The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2.

Boise State tries to impress voters

This is the first of three games Boise State has on prime time Friday’s to convince BCS voters they deserve to move back up in the standings and keep fingers crossed those ahead of them falter in the coming weeks. This might be the last chance for the Broncos to be beaten during the regular season, down in Ruston, LA at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) still has Idaho and Nevada, both of whom are having good seasons, however those games are at Bronco Stadium. Though Boise State was never specifically challenged in road games at Fresno State and Tulsa, they had to play the full 60 minutes in each case to secure victory. If quarterback Kellen Moore continues to play at such a high rate of efficiency (24 TD’s-to-2 picks ratio), the Broncos will be nearly impossible to stop, especially with its Top 10 defense. The Broncos’ backers could almost be accused of peculation with Boise’s 35-18 ATS record as WAC favorites of 10 or more.

This is Louisiana Tech’s only home game in five week period and what an opponent to match up with. At least incentive should not be an issue, especially before the home fans. The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season and 9-1 (6-2 ATS) since last facing Boise State on their own turf.

To have chance for the upset, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 3-4 ATS) has to have quarterback Ross Jenkins play at an extremely high level. His backup, redshirt freshman Colby Cameron, is also expected to see playing time, as he has impressed the coaches in recent weeks. Running back Daniel Porter and receiver Phillip Livas were both injured last week against Idaho and are game time decisions. The defense needs to force stops and create chaos against normally composed Broncos. Having Boise State being unmotivated wouldn’t hurt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Louisiana Tech as 21-point underdogs with total of 50. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under coach Derek Dooley and 4-1 ATS hosting Boise State. However, since 2002, Louisiana Tech 4-15 ATS vs ranked squads.

Boise State has more good numbers than George Clooney’s cell phone for dating purposes. The Broncos are 14-3-1 ATS the last two seasons and are 8-1 ATS on the road. When everything is clicking, Boise State is 14-3 ATS after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games, with winning margin of 28.5 points per game.

Look for this WAC dispute on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern, with Boise State 11-2 UNDER in November road games.

Wednesday October 14 at 3Daily Winners

Another slow day sports wise, but I did find a pretty good hockey system that didn’t make 80 percent level, but makes sense and has delivered 75 percent winners. Literally, today I just found this thought-provoking football that applies tonight. Lots of good reading material for today. Good Luck

What you should know- It’s 85 and sunny in Scottsdale, AZ. (I know that’s rubbing it in) Look for college football article on Thursday, some really juicy material.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System-1) Play Against home teams against the money line like Carolina after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game against opponent, after two straight blowout wins by three goals or more. Since 2005, this system is 24-8.

Free Football Trend-2) This is a surprising angle, Boise State is 1-10 ATS as road favorite off a SU nonconference win.

Free Football Pick -3) Greg of the Left Coast Connection believes Tulsa will give Boise State a game. He expressed that it will be the defense, not the offense is what will matter most for the Golden Hurricane to stay in this contest. With that said, his best best is UNDER in tonight's contest.

Guaranteed Play from Paul Buck tonight, he's on fire.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

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Tulsa looks for the upset of Boise State

More than one person circled this game as a potential downfall for an unbeaten season for Boise State. The Broncos have only played one real complete game, which was against Bowling Green, winning 49-14. Boise State’s (5-0, 4-0 ATS) quest for perfection continues in Tulsa, where another offensive-minded team is awaiting.

It will be of interest to see the mood of the Broncos after a sleep-walking 34-16 performance against Cal-Davis at Boise, gaining a season-low 101 yards on the ground.

“I’m frustrated with a couple different phases,” Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. “Too many penalties, when you can’t score inside the 4 and 5 yard line when you have multiple tries, that’s frustrating.

“We’ll have their attention without question here and get a few things corrected.”

Coach Peterson would never say publicly, but he knows this is great opportunity to showcase his team for the pollsters, to a national cable audience against a 4-1 Tulsa club that has respectable reputation nationally.

Boise State’s 21st ranked defense is sure to be tested by Tulsa, though this is not the offensive juggernaut of the last few seasons. Tulsa offense averages 414.2 yards per game (35th), however that is against defenses that have allowed 413 YPG. In other words, the Golden Hurricane (3-1 ATS) is only average based on the competition.

Boise State needs to do a better job finishing scoring drives. They have scored touchdowns on just 16 of 27 red-zone trips, including six visits that resulted in zero points. The Broncos have covered the spread seven straight times and nine of last 11 and are 6-1 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Tulsa needs a fast start to grab the momentum, which in absorbing challenge since nobody has scored in the first quarter against Boise State. Quarterback G.J. Kinne, ranks seventh in FBS passer rating (don’t ask how that works) and has thrown for 1,142 yards with 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions. Tulsa has been balanced in getting into the end zone with nine rushing touchdowns and 11 through the air. The Golden Hurricane has three prime time contests ahead, but a win here brings a great deal of attention to team that is 6-2 ATS as home underdog since 2003.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State posted as 9.5-point favorites, but the Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in the first of two road games. Coach Peterson’s squad is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season. Tulsa’s defense ranks 27th nationally at 299.2 yards per game and can’t afford a shootout since they are 3-13 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last three seasons.

These teams were WAC partners earlier this decade, with Tulsa 0-4 and 2-2 ATS. This is a rare treat for Coach Todd Graham’s squad and Tulsa is 7-3-1 ATS hosting Top 25 teams.

ESPN has the coverage commencing at 8 Eastern.

Boise State travels to Raisin Country

Boise State opens defense of its WAC title and goes for its seventh crown in eight years with even higher ambitions. The Broncos have started in scintillating fashion with consecutive wins over Oregon and Miami-O and have their eyes pointed to another BCS berth if they can go undefeated and be impressive in its televised tilts. They will take to the road for their first conference game against a team noted for playing the good teams tough.

The Broncos are 54-2 and 35-21 ATS in WAC play since joining in 2001, with one of those straight up losses coming in 2005 at Bulldog Stadium 27-7. Fresno State coach Pat Hill has always placed great importance on certain games and evidently not others, as Fresno State has never won a WAC title in his 12 years. However, this one matchup the Bulldogs would love to have and get Fresno State on the home page of sports websites.

The Bulldogs almost knocked off the Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers on the road last Saturday. Fresno State held 21-7 lead as 7.5-point underdogs, but three Ryan Colburn second half interceptions kept Wisconsin in the game and the Bulldogs eventually lost 34-31 in double overtime. Coach Hill has expressed confidence his team will respond to bitterly disappointing loss, there is evidence to suggest otherwise with Fresno State 5-11-1 and plaintive 1-16-1 ATS of defeat.

Sports bettors are passing on various sorts of this kind of information.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened the Bulldogs as 12-point underdogs and has moved them downward to +7.5 according to the action, with total of 53.5. Fresno State has lost seven of last eight SU and ATS, including last three by almost 30 points per game.

Boise State is 11-3 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more over the last three seasons.

Fresno State is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored and 13-4 UNDER at after covering one or more wins spreads.

This is one of what is believed to be three road tests for Boise State, which will be played before a boisterous Bulldogs crowd. The Broncos are expected to win the game, yet are only 10-11 ATS as away favorites since 2005.

ESPN has the kickoff at 9 Eastern and in last eight WAC meetings; the winner has covered the spread by 14 points per game.

Oh Yea Baby College Football Saturday

At least we came back with 2-0 Friday after lousy Thursday. I have to admit even though the Best Systems around is awesome 24-4, the teams it turns out to be make me skittish. The Top Trend is a super revenge spot for a team that has performed well in a certain role a season ago. Mike of the LCC, looks for two in a row with his highest rated play which is Free right here. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- The whole LaGarrette Blount episode was stupid on so many levels. First, nothing was said about the Boise State player baiting him, though I understand this goes on all the time and you don’t go around slugging people because you’re angry. Second, I was surprised the suspension was for the whole season, when three games or 25 percent of the season who seem like a fair punishment. However, based on past transgressions and how he reacted walking to the locker room showed somebody out of control.

In checking, it was presumed he was probably third round material for next year’s NFL draft and he’s probably hired an agent already trying to get hooked up for a tryout.

Lost in all this was how inept Oregon looked. Coach Chip Kelly, the offensive guru was completely overmatched as a coach. His team was not nearly as well prepared as Boise State. Center Thomas Bird stood up his man on almost every play and pushed him around for four quarters and guards Will Lawrence and Kevin Sapien also had great games. Broncos coach Chris Peterson really has a feel for the moment as a play caller.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting today I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on Twitter. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points who were terrible offensive team from last season, scoring 14 or less points a game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. This remarkable system is 24-4 the last 16 years, 85.7 percent. The bad news is the teams that fit are Washington and Washington State.

Free Football Trend -2) California will look to pick up where they left off last year being 7-0 ATS as a home favorite.

Free Football Pick -3) Mike picked up two more winners yesterday making him 12-1 this week and he’s played Texas A&M at -14 (now -15) to win big over New Mexico.

Today Paul Buck and myself have what we believe are some very solid week 1 winners on Guaranteed Picks. Not going to oversell, but if you are looking for good start in CFB betting, we believe we can help.

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Holiday Weekend Commences- Enjoy

We got beat up good with 0-3 day and will attempt to make a solid comeback immediately. Our focus is going to start to move more towards football with much of the information will go heading that direct. Providing this information on Friday’s is going to be hit and miss just like last year, because of what I do. I will make better effort to have Saturday material up Friday night as a make good. I have a top notch MLB system that 68-5, 93.2 percent today. The Top Trend is in college football action Saturday,on a well disciplined team. Good Luck

Yesterday was a record day in number of visitors here, thanks to all, I hope you liked it.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting this Saturday and on Sunday once the NFL begins, I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on those days. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who aren’t hitting a lick like Pittsburgh, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a roasting starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Over the last five years, this MLB system is blistering 68-5, 93.2 percent, including perfect 10-0 this year.

Free Football Trend -2) The Navy is 15-3 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike of the LCC has turned up the heat with 10-1 week and is on the Halos tonight with the younger Weaver brother.

Paul Buck hit Boise State yesterday and has another Guaranteed Play tonight

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Will the Boise State Broncos Go Unbeaten?

For the above question, we’ll find out very early if this is truly a possibility, when the 14th ranked Broncos host the 16th ranked Oregon Ducks. Boise State is unanimous choice to win the WAC this season and is the early season darling from the non-BCS schools to possibly pluck another BCS berth when the bids come out in December. Consider the track record of Boise State coming into the season.

Boise State has had three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five years and is 55-9 in all games since 2004. Faced with oddsmakers’ numbers just begging the sports bettor to play the other side, the Broncos are 33-25-1 against the spread in that time period.

In games played on the “Smurf Turf” blue carpet at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is 64-2 and 40-17 ATS the last decade, which includes 49 in a row during the regular season. Boise State returns a dozen starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who broke unto the scene last year as a freshman. In truth, coach Chris Peterson might have a team equal to or better than the 2006 squad (which was 13-0 and knocked off Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) next season.

The Oregon Ducks are not to be taken for granted just because they have a new coach in Chip Kelly. With just ten returning starters from last year’s surprising 10-3 squad, the ranking appears a trifle inflated, however three components help justify the number.

Oregon might not average 41.9 points per game this upcoming season, however, will still have ample firepower with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls. The junior quarterback is far from classic passer, but he’s accurate and is powerful runner and is listed as All-Pac 10 QB in several preseason publications. Speaking of powerful, 240-pound LeGarrette Blount is one blunt object in the open field. The architect of this high-powered offense is coach Kelly, whose been the Oregon offense coordinator. The Ducks are 27-5 ATS in first road game, including covering nine of last 10.

Bookmaker.com has Boise State listed as 3.5-point home favorite, down from opening number of 5.5, with total having risen to 64. We checked in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com to get is opinion on this anticipated contest and Boise State’s chances of going unscathed during the regular season.

“I feel like Boise State will get by Oregon at home and cover the number. Boise State is incredible at home with 66-6 SU record and 42-18 ATS since 1992. Last year the Broncos beat opponents by an average of 40.7 to 8 at home. Chris Peterson is in his 4th year as head coach of Boise State and has led them to a 35-4 overall record. Boise State wins this one.
I would also consider the total; with Oregon is 7-0 to the Over when playing WAC opponents.

As far as Boise State going undefeated this year, I'm going to have to say no. They should have a tough time when they play in Fresno State but I think they will actually win that one in a nail-biter. The one game I see them losing will be when they travel to Tulsa on October 14th. Tulsa was undefeated at home last season and will give Boise all they can handle and then some.”

This is the second game on ESPN Thursday night, which will start at 10:15 Eastern and Oregon has revenge on their minds after last year’s 37-32 home upset as 10.5-point favorites to the Broncos. Masoli told a Eugene television station during the offseason that the loss was “embarrassing” and that this year he and his team would “take it to (Boise State).”

Boise State’s first test could set the tone for 2009 campaign.

December 23 Wagering Action

Officially we won the one play we put out there on the Top Trend, but the system was also a winner, just missing our qualifier to be deemed worthy. For Tuesday we have a system certainly worthy at 85.1 percent and it will take gumption to play considering what NBA team it is. As long as we keep finding perfect trends, we’ll keep riding them and have another in college basketball this evening. Once again we’ll look at how the LCC view the Poinsettia Bowl. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points, like Oklahoma City, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent like Atlanta, after they have played under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 23-4 ATS, 85.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Niagara is 9-0 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 12 bettors on Boise State and 10 on TCU in tonight’s bowl game. No surprisingly, a total of 10 bettors are riding the Broncos on the money line.

How Real Sports Bettors Spend Black Friday

While watching television this week and starting Brooke Burke withdrawal on Dancing with the Stars, I saw some ridiculous store is opening at 4:00 am Friday morning to get my business. The only retail business I’m doing at that time of the day is at a 24-hour Denny’s or Micky D’s after carousing the night before. My only goal is to wake up in time to place a few bets on football and basketball before the first game starts.

While the few remaining people that actually have a couple hundred dollars in their saving accounts and about the same left on credit card limits, goes out to spends the rest, with the knowledge the new year could bring unemployment, you like me don’t have a care in the world other than making sure the TV works, there’s beer in the fridge and three pounds of turkey your mom or relative sent home for the weekend is still cold.

Their might not be a more appropriately termed expression than playing in “the losers bracket”, on the day after Thanksgiving at 10:30 am Eastern in Orlando, in the Old Spice Basketball Classic. This follows from playing basketball ON Thanksgiving. (I wonder if you get the Old Spice gift pack swag for showing up) I’ll probably pass on that and get ready for West Virginia and Pitt in the backyard brawl and take West Virginia in big revenge game.

At 12:30 Eastern on Game Plan or if you live in the South somewhere, the Egg Bowl will be played. For those unfamiliar, this is Mississippi State vs Mississippi. In case you haven’t read or heard this, how they came up with the name Egg Bowl was from a trophy they came up that was egg-shaped to present after the game to stop fighting between the fans of each team, that’s nuts. Nothing nuts about Houston Nutt taking Ole Miss to first bowl game since some quarterback named Eli followed his old man there in Oxford. I like that the Rebels have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and are 6-0 ATS in November the last few years.

At 2:30 Eastern, CBS turns on the way-back machine and has Don Criqui and Dan Fouts do the LSU at Arkansas contest. Both announcers are well past their prime, which this year is true of the Tigers and Hogs. Remember how were told all the speed the SEC has and this is the best conference known to mankind. If it’s so special, how come a team supposedly as powerful as LSU has only held Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane to less than two touchdowns? I talked to a SEC scout about two weeks ago and he said Arkansas definitely doesn’t have the same talent as the last few years, but in his eyes, the Razorback players don’t play nearly as hard for Bobby (vagabond) Petrino. I know Sportsbook.com has LSU as 4.5-point favorites and I like the fact Miles minions are 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite.

At about 3:30E on ABC, two Big 12 teams who used to sit at the big table for the holidays, will meet when Colorado travels Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Once the Big 12 was formulated, this became the marquee matchup in the Big 12 North, with these two schools having battled for Big 8 titles in the late 1980’s and early 90’s. Both are trying to make a comeback bigger than the Sex Pistols. Nebraska is 18-point favorite in this meaningless game and I’ll bite with the Children of the Corn 18-6 ATS in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals. I’ll also back the Huskers since the defense, though still bad by Blackshirt standards, had 65 painted on them in Boulder last year on this day.

Did you know they are playing they are playing the preseason NIT championship at 4 Eastern on Friday? Can’t figure that out, but will have to keep flipping channels while opening more adult beverages and stuffing face with leftovers. (Is it me or is turkey like chips the day after Thanksgiving)

I have to admit it, I can not stand Fresno State coach Pat Hill and I’m looking forward to Boise State blasting them into the next universe commencing at 6 Eastern on ESPN also (2). Seriously, have you ever heard or seen a coach who puts more emphasis on big non-conference games than winning a league title! This is his 12th year in Raisin Country and he tied for first in the WAC twice in his tenure and nothing since 1999. Yet he gets all these accolades for beating the occasional BCS team or coming oh so close. When Hill first took over at Fresno State, he said he wanted to build a program like Florida State’s. In the end he has, mediocre. The Wussdogs have been outscored by 87 total points in their last three trips into Boise. With the Broncos 9-1 and 8-2 against the spread in their last home game and gorgeous 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less, I’ll back Boise.

By 9:30E, I’ll be really bloated, looking more like Micky Rourke and catch a little of the UCLA and Arizona State game. I’ll probably be asleep before the first quarter is over, but I’ll rest comfortably knowing UCLA is 10-2 UNDER after playing three straight Pac-10 games.

This whole Black Friday thing is way overrated; I’ve got a great day planned.


Writer Red Wydley made this holiday contribution.

Black Friday Wagering Tips

I hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving and we hope to get our Top System plays back in order with 81.2 percent play that has been even hotter the last few years. Our lone winner was a Top Trend and we think we have another winner in the WAC on Friday. The LLC has a Free consensus play up on tap. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like Nebraska off one or more straight Overs, who are an excellent offensive team , averaging 34 or more PPG, against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG) like Colorado after 7 or more games. This system is tantalizing is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent since 1999 and is 9-2 the last three years.

Free Football Trend -2) Boise State is 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less points.

Free Football Selection -3) Left Coast Connection has a consensus play on Toledo today, with eight backers and no dissenters.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

College Football Saturday

A solid 2-1 Friday, which would have been better if I hadn’t picked Ole Miss, I digress. Today’s Top System is a two-fer, with two plays from 27-4 system, both against undefeated teams. We’ve had incredible luck in finding Top Trends that have not lost and we have another for college football wagering today. Normally on Saturday during college football, I give out the Top Pick from the hottest member of the LLC. Today’s very unusual circumstances has me changing directions and for good reason. Good Luck.

By the way, did anybody notice Red Wydley was correct on his 3-team parlay from Friday's blog?

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, undefeated on the season. This isn’t too hard to figure seeing only a handful of teams remain without a loss. Play against Boise State and Utah, backed with this system that is 27-4 ATS, 87.1 percent the last 16 years.

Free Football Trend -2) The Rice Owls are 13-0 ATS in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes per game.

Free Football Selection -3) An unprecedented 16 bettors from the Left Coast Connection are on Penn State, with five having it as their top play.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.

Early Football Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were ordinary 3-3 on the sides and 3-5 in college totals. This makes season record 45-30-2, 60 percent on sides and 32-23, 58.1 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-0 on sides bringing the record to 12-9, 57.1 percent. On the Totals they were quality 2-1 (11-3-1 the last month) making the updated figure 17-11-1, 60.7 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1 to -2 Lost
Nevada +2 to -1 Winner
Duke -5.5 to -3.5
South Carolina -11 to -13
Boise State -31.5 to -34
Oklahoma -25 to -27.5
Nebraska +2 to -1
Texas -24 to -27
USC -18.5 to -21

College Totals
Pur/Mich St. 49 to 50
Illini/W. Mich 63 to 60
N.C. State/Duke 47 to 49
OK St./TT 73.5 to 69
Army/Rice 61 to 58
ISU/Colo 53 to 50
K-State/Misso 74 to 70
Kan/Neb 69 to 64
OSU/UCLA 52.5 to 49
Bay/Tex 66 to 62.5
Ark St/FIU 51 to 48

NFL Sides
Balt -2 to Pick

NFL Totals
GB/Minn 48 to 46
NYG/Phil 45 to 43.5

Late Season Betting on Ranked Teams

The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.

Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.

Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.

After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.

His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.

Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.

All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.

1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?

2) How do ranked teams perform at home?

3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?

The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.

The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.

One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.

Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.

My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.

I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.

In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?

The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.

Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.

In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.