2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

Vikings look to sink Chicago's season

Formally known as the Purple People Eaters, Minnesota captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons—playing a 14-game schedule—starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the league’s elite franchises.

Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bay’s lost in Pittsburgh giving them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late ‘70s. Only two current Vikings—Brett Favre and Pat Williams—were alive when it last happened and they’ll try to secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.

Speaking of No. 4, he once again made himself the center of attention by refusing to exit last week’s loss to Carolina. Thus heading to the Windy City, Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) has unintentionally given ESPN a number of storylines heading into its last Monday night telecast.

Though Favre and coach Brad Childress have reportedly kiss and made up, questions have to remain, especially in the Vikings locker room, where players have to wonder who is really in charge. Enough players will back Favre, while others will support the coach. No matter who backs who, Minnesota backers are impassible with their team 5-22 ATS in final road of the regular season.

Favre has been remarkable, no matter what his age, as the Vikings have a had a top 10 offense all season and are fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Minnesota’s outstanding season has in part been because of how they played in division, showcasing a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record in NFC North games.

Minnesota got a potential belated Christmas gift, with New Orleans losing a second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to Tampa Bay and losing in overtime 20-17, leaving ajar the door for Minny to be the top-seed in the NFC if they win out and the Saints falter at Carolina next week.

Chicago (4-10 ATS) fans couldn’t have been happier this past off-season, they finally got their franchise quarterback, one problem; he needs to be able to throw the ball to somebody. Jay Cutler has thrown for over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but been picked off a league-high 25 times. Chicago receivers are arguably the worst in the NFL (good luck trying to find ones that are worse) and the combination of poor route-running and Cutler trying to force throws have sunk Chicago.

The Bears have fallen like the winter temperatures to 5-9 by losing six of its last seven games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. Chicago has become THE play against team having dropped seven in a row against the spread. The Bears are 2-16 ATS this month as underdog versus team that is off SU and ATS loss.

In the previous matchup, Chicago had no answers for Favre, who completed 32 of 48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses—one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe—came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.

The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to 1998. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, coach on the hot seat Lovie Smith has seen his team at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in this campaign.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Minnesota as eight-point road division favorite, with total of 41.5. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS as North Division visiting favorites and is a torpid 2-13 ATS in December as road chalk. The Vikes are 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. If Chicago has an ounce of pride, they should play well after another dismal effort, on home turf against rival with playoffs ahead of them. The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field after posting 10 or fewer points and are 8-0 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Minnesota covers if they have the kind of game plan that has them jumping all over the Bears early. Get Adrian Peterson wide, play action pass deep and use Shiancoe over the middle. The Vikings running game has produced 62 or fewer yards in two of the last three weeks, this is opportunity to fix things against 25th rated run defense. The defensive front four can dominate the Chicago offensive and keep Cutler’s miscues coming. Above all, Childress has to convince his team to play 60 minutes and finish their work, otherwise they could fall victim like the Saints or almost what happened to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Chicago covers if they can make Favre uncomfortable in the pocket. Over the last few seasons, the former Southern Miss product has not played well outdoors in the cold. After 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in November, Favre has just three TD’s and four picks in the final month of 2009. It’s going to be up to the defense to raise their level of play and force Vikings into mistakes. Chicago talk radio has brought up OC Ron Turner as a big part of offensive issues and Da Bears can’t be too quick to abandon the run, as long as they are within two touchdowns. Cutler is a good play-action passer, don’t leave him without options. Chicago must dominate the special teams to control field position.

Monday Night System – Play On a division team that outgained its opponent in earlier game by more than a 100 total yards. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Only 11 days till Christmas

Could Bengals and Cowboys have played any worse? Their efforts (?) caused us a 1-2 day sorry to say. We have a couple of good systems going today; check what you like from today’s articles. We have a prefect trend in the NFL today in game write-up, thus thought we’d add a Top pucks Trend. Sal is having success and offers his best NBA tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – As of Friday I really the Arizona Cardinals at -3, however the line moving in their direction and a system I discovered that favors the Niners, now I’m on the fence and may have to pass.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Systems -1) The Orlando system which is listed below is very good as is the Monday night one in football.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Philadelphia Flyers are 2-11 when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal is on 10-3 run in the NBA and is playing Dallas this evening.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

New England attracting bettor’s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC’s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.

New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he’s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the “look how smart I am” plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don’t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System – Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

The beginning of holiday week

We should have gone 3-0 yesterday, but the Giants lousy pass defense couldn’t hold a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, allowing us to slip to 2-1. Today out Best System is in the NFL and is in article listed below. The Top Trend heads all the way out to Maui and the Sal’s Top Free Play will arrive shortly.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – The Colts defeated the Ravens, 17-15, to continue their recent trend of extending their winning streak in closely-contested games. The Colts' three other victories this month had come by scores of 18-14 over the 49ers, 20-17 over the Texans and 35-34 over the Patriots, and as in their win over the Ravens, the Colts had trailed in the fourth quarter in each game. Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games after trailing during the fourth quarter in each of those games.

The Colts became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games in the same season by a total margin of 10-or-fewer points. And they did it by filling an inside straight, having won those games by margins of one, two, three and four points. The previous record was set by the 1986 Giants: en route to winning the Super Bowl, Bill Parcells's team defeated the Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and Broncos by a combined margin of 11 points. Thanks, Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) See the Monday night system in below article

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1-12 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s says take the points with the Titans, he's also playing them on the money line.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Houston in Big Division Matchup

Two weeks after Texans suffered a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis; their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessee’s Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.

The 5-4 Texans have had 15 days ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, as Kris Brown’s last second potential game-tying 42-yard field goal attempt sailed wide left, and now they prepare for first true franchise run toward the postseason. How Houston (5-3-1 ATS) comes out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much they’ve grown. They have won two straight against Tennessee, but only by a combined four points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 4-10 ATS against a team who won last game by 14 or more points.

The Tennessee Titans (3-6, 4-5 ATS) have opened a Pandora’s Box of questions in winning three in a row after losing first six games of the season. Should Tennessee and coach Jeff Fisher be praised for turning season around or chastised for protracted beginning of the year? Coach Fisher, who didn’t appear to be any fan of Vince Young, was left with little choice but to play the former Texas star after humbling 59-0 pasting by New England.

Young has brought energy to the offense in his three starts and been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in leading his squad to a trio of wins and covers.

Coach Fisher’s club is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six AFC South contests, however is 12-3 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Houston as four-point favorites with a total of 48 and Schaub assuredly will attack the Titans 31st ranked pass defense from the start. The Texans are 13-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt and are 12-3 OVER versus division opponents over the last three seasons.

Tennessee’s running game keys their offense and they are 16-6 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Tonight’s visitors are 10-2 UNDER on the road revenging a close loss by seven points or less.

Tennessee covers if they run the ball effectively against Houston’s 14th ranked run defense. The Texans are not known for gap control, which is real plus for Johnson, who can pop into the secondary in a heartbeat. Last week Buffalo made life tough on the Titans by playing eight-men in the box and press coverage on their unimpressive receivers, before self-destructing. With Houston having two weeks to prepare, Tennessee will see more the same, which means taking shots down the field. Young’s arm is more than strong enough; he just needs the pass catchers to make a few plays. After a mediocre start, the Titans pass rush is coming along and they will need to pressure Schaub. Monday night road teams with only one appearance on the season are 34-17-2 ATS, including 5-2 ATS in 2009.

Houston covers if they create a semblance of a running game with zone-blocking scheme. Granted, the Texans are 28th rushing the pigskin, but Tennessee is nothing special stopping the run (16th) and is vulnerable against teams that run and pass the ball effectively. This helps Schaub, whose been forced to throw the ball too often, which has led to nine picks. Just keeping the Titans honest on defense allows Houston to play to their strength, the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against them. Though Young has shown greater maturity and better decision-making, a steady pass rush that doesn’t allow him to leave the pocket makes a below average passer even worse. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Texans post-bye week games since 2003.

Monday Night System – Same as last week’s, Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (12-2 ATS L16Y, 2-0 this season)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

The Cleveland Browns are so ugly......

Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.

Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns’ quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.

Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.

The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Mangini’s players think he’s more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the “Sopranos”, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.

The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team “Egypt”, because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as 11-point favorites with total of 39. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.

The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.

Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.

Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.

Monday Night System – Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

“Who Dat?” NFL Sports Bettors Know

The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.

The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.

In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.

The term “Big Easy” would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.

This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.

Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportsbook.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 12.

The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 56 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.

The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.

The Saints cover if they play their game and don’t become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.

Monday Night System – Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Monday Night Football Mystery

The Monday night game matches a pair of NFC East divisional rivals coming off bitter losses as significant favorites. Washington lost at home to Kansas City 14-6 as 6.5-point home favorites to fall to 2-4 on the season, and this will actually be the first time since Week 1 that they are matched against a quality opponent. That is a questionable description of Philadelphia though coming off the 13-9 loss at Oakland as two touchdown road chalk.

Here we are after six weeks into the season and the Redskins will finally line up against an opponent with a win under its belt. That’s right. Washington’s first six games came against a team yet to win: New York Giants (0-0), St. Louis (0-1), Detroit (0-2), Tampa Bay (0-3), Carolina (0-3) and Kansas City (0-5). Its next one comes against a team that just lost to the Raiders, who were outscored on either side of Eagles game 82-7. Head coach Jim Zorn received the dreaded vote of confidence that he will be the coach the rest of the season, but his play calling duties have been supplanted by veteran coach Sherm Lewis, whose most recent job was calling bingo numbers.

Off for two weeks after this contest, the Redskins have struggled offensively going into the bye week of late, scoring 13.4 points in its last 10 tries, resulting in eight UNDER's. Those numbers favor comparably with Washington scoring 13.2 points per game on the season and 10.3 at FedEx Field.

Washington is 3-9-3 ATS in last 15 encounters and it’s no secret owner Daniel Snyder and members of the front office are unimpressed with Zorn’s offensive acumen, the very reason he was hired. The Redskins are in a bad situation offensively. Jason Campbell is seemingly no better than when he was drafted out of Auburn in 2005. The offensive line is again in turmoil with injuries and Clinton Porter is no longer an explosive running back. This is a deadly combination for a team that is on 1-8 ATS home streak.

For as tough a town as Philadelphia (3-2 SU & ATS) is, it was bewildering the Eagles Andy Reid and Eagles players weren’t crucified for lack of focus and effort in Oakland. Forget the Raiders pride was hurt by harsh words from Giants players, no excuses for all the Philadelphia players to be out-hustled and out-played by a team that might have three players who could start for them.

"It's a great lesson to learn that no team is as good as you think in this league and no team is as bad as you think in this league," coach Reid said. "It's the National Football League and you better be ready every week to play and execute as coaches and players and it starts with me." The bespectacled coach is 39-23 ATS after one or more losses and 16-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

The Eagles have flown to 7.5-point favorites after opening at 6.5, with total having sunk to 37.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. This is Philadelphia’s first divisional contest of 2009, and they are on a 5-1 ATS run on the road vs. their fellow rivals. The Eagles are on a 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run in Washington with 12 of the last 16 meetings going UNDER in the nation’s capitol.

The Eagles cover if don’t forget to run the ball. The fourteen rush attempts last week is totally ridiculous given it was a four point contest. Reid and his coaches have to stay committed to Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. The left side of the Philadelphia offensive line is hurting with injuries, expect Washington to blitz that side similar to what Oakland did, however rolling Donovan McNabb to his right counteracts the move. Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS on the road and is normally a smart football team; averaging almost seven penalties a game isn’t very bright. Skins signal caller Campbell isn’t known for reading blitzes properly, attack him with abandon.

The Redskins cover if they bring the heat on McNabb, who can quickly forget his fundamentals when pressured and make mistakes. Short fields offer the Washington the best chance to score and get the crowd in the game from the get-go. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS roll in this series and putting Campbell in the shotgun is working towards his strength, since he is slow to read and react to blitzes. Zorn has about as much chance of returning next season as a Zima comeback, thus he and Lewis should devise wide open offensive attack, since chances of making playoffs are remote presently. Here’s hoping one of Redskins plays isn’t B-14.

Monday Night System – Play On a home underdog that lost SU at home last week and its opponent also lost previous game. (10-3 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

A Monday of Great Viewing

Ended up with sharp 3-1 record overall in the NFL and still have a Over play on tonight’s Monday Night encounter still hanging out there from Thursday. Have a really interesting system for tonight in the NFL at 83.3 percent. How do the Angels do after blowing a save, read on. Good Luck

What you I thought yesterday- Isn’t it ridiculous how those players looked wearing earflaps during the baseball games over the weekend? Players wearing essentially ski masks with area cut out so they could see. Obviously the cold weather really came early to the East but the later baseball goes, you have to figure the worse the weather. Baseball lucked out to have these four teamsw still playing and the baseball ratings are very good, but that won’t happen every year. My suggestion would be to schedule seven day/night doubleheaders, similar to the old days. That way teams can still have all the revenue of separate games and the season can be shorten one week. I understand all the ramifications, but playing baseball in November is asinine.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) From the article written below: Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS, 83.3 percent)

Free Baseball Trend-2) The Los Angeles Angels are are 14-2 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season.

Free Football Pick -3) From the LCC members, San Diego is running as two-to-one choice and Under is over 75 percent.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

The Chargers will look to bolt to lead on Monday Night

The Chargers waited until Week 13 last season to get their act together and snagged the division title on the final Sunday of the season. This year’s push for the AFC West crown needs to begin on Monday night when they host upstart Denver, which comes off its fifth win out of the gate.

San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t enjoyed a fast start since 2006 when it won four of its first five and finished 13-3. It lost three of four to start the following season and was 2-3 at this same time a year ago. At .500 and coming off a bye as well as a 38-28 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 4, head coach Norv Turner can’t put his finger on one thing that’s ailing his talented club that is 6-15-3 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

Fatigue won’t be to blame if San Diego drops this critical Monday night contest against the Broncos. The Chargers will have had 15 days to prepare its No. 26th ranked defense. They have really missed NT Jamal Williams, surrendering 151 yards on the ground (27th). Coach Turner’s team is in must-win mode, and fortunately, has done just that versus Denver of late, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six meetings. They’ve also done well at home under Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS after beating New England and head into their bye week next Sunday. Denver had a myriad of defensive issues a year ago, but not anymore. Its resurgence has been led by a unit that was nothing short of a sieve in 2008, yielding 28 points per game, including 90 in two meetings with the Chargers. Through the first five weeks, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has directed a group that allowed 43 points (1st in the NFL) and no more than 17 in any game. Even against the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Broncos didn’t come apart and pitched a shutout in the second half and are second in total defense.

The Broncos are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games on the road vs division squads. Denver won its only game vs. an AFC West foe so far, snapping a skid of 3-15 ATS vs. division rivals.

Denver opened as four-point road underdogs and once the public took a closer look, they moved them to three-point dogs. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS versus AFC opponents with rest. DiamondSportsbook.com has the total at 43.5 and Denver is 16-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. San Diego is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous outing and is 20-6 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Denver covers if they establish the run against San Diego. With no Williams in the middle, Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann should get a great push, opening lanes for rookie Knowshon Moreno to earn tough yards inside and burst either way with an opening. The Broncos have started slow each of the last two games, trailing by 10 points early. Though coach Josh McDaniels and his staff have made outstanding adjustments at halftime, with Denver an otherworldly 59-7 in the second half, that might not work as well on the road. A confident team with a quick start could add discomfort to a division club not playing at their level with a first quarter burst. Phillip Rivers is arguably the best deep passer in the NFL, the safeties have to maintain their integrity and limit big gains.

San Diego covers if they play with the needed urgency in a division game with plenty of rest. The Chargers were pancaked at Pittsburgh, before making late rally. Falling behind to Denver plays into their hands as their defense is even tougher with a lead. San Diego has to improve dramatically on first down on offense and defense. They rank 25th is first down efficiency offensively and opponents convert 49 percent of third downs, mostly because of earlier down failures. The Chargers have generated the fewest amount of third and longs in the league. Try and make QB Kyle Orton a difference-maker, not a game manager like he has been for the most part. Take the early lead, play solid run defense and have Orton play from behind for significant periods of time.

Monday Night System – Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Tony Romo needs make good to teammates

Dallas comes off a disappointing last second loss to the Giants in last week’s new stadium opener, and will look to turn it around in a Monday night contest hosting Carolina. The Cowboys fell to 1-1 with the loss, putting more importance on this game with a two-game AFC road swing on deck, after both the Giants and Eagles won on Sunday. Dallas is on a nice run of 28-14 ATS, bouncing back from a game in which they allowed 30 or more points. A 1-2 start, losing their first two games at the new palatial palace in Arlington would be disastrous for the Cowboys.

Hey Carolina, it’s time to wake up! Every Panthers fan is well aware if you go back to distressing playoff loss to Arizona from last season, Carolina has lost seven straight games, if you include the four preseason games. Failure like success is contagious and you can forget what it feels like to win and what it takes, for a squad who has failed to cover last five outings after allowing 350 or more yards in previous contest.

Things change expediently in the NFL and a 0-2 start for a team that won their division a season ago doesn’t count for much, ask Tennessee and Miami how they are feeling right now sitting without a win. The Panthers on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear before their open date, which comes next week. That could be important as Carolina is on a 6-1 ATS stretch in pre-bye week road games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Panthers as eight-point road underdogs, with a total of 47.5 and amazingly, underdogs have covered 12 straight pre-bye week games in which Carolina was one of the participants.

Both teams need their quarterbacks to play up to capabilities. Jake Delhomme has five interceptions already this season, with one touchdown pass and Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett’s least favorite Dallas signal caller, Tony Romo, pretty much singlehandedly cost the Cowboys a win last week. In last nine meetings between these teams the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Carolina covers if two very important things happen. Start with Carolina offensive line giving Delhomme protection. It’s been known for sometime Delhomme is liable to put the ball up for grabs when receiving pressure. His steadiness has waned since the middle of last season. He needs time and has to get the ball in Steve Smith’s hands. The O-Line has to do better than 4.2 yards per carry with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Dallas is loose in gap protection, which could open up running lanes for the dynamic duo. The Cats are cool 16-5 ATS off a road loss against a division rival.

The other key point is Carolina defensive coaches need to add diversification. The Panthers are not getting any pass rush and are not blitzing to counteract. The defensive line is being wiped out with opponents rushing for 168 yards a game. Find ways to free up linebackers to make tackles and mix it up. Given Romo’s playing style, the Panthers could go to 9-2 ATS following a SU loss if they play looser and attack more.

Dallas covers if they properly execute last week’s game plan. The Cowboys ran for 251 yards against a very good Giants defensive line, which means they should have no problem averaging somewhere between 5.1 yards per carry (Carolina allows) to 7.0 (Dallas’ average YPC). Coach John Fox has seen enough coverage miscues to last half a season in the first two games, even Romo should be able to read and react to what he sees, with his team 8-3 ATS this month. The Cowboys led the NFL in sacks last season, thus far, ZERO. Delhomme will hit open Dallas defenders like they are the primary receiver if under duress. The Cowboys are 17-8-1 ATS off a defeat.

Monday Night System – Play Against any underdog that allowed 24 or more points in their last two games. (26-13-1 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Indy favored without all weaponry on Monday night

Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The teams haven’t met since 2006 and quarterback Peyton Manning, who works and studies as diligently as any player in the game, is being thrown into an uncomfortable situation. Manning was already starting the season without one of his mainstays, Marvin Harrison, now will be without Anthony Gonzalez who replaced him in the starting lineup.

Gonzalez, will be out of the lineup for at least two weeks and as many as two months due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered last week against Jacksonville. That means Manning will be throwing to unfamiliar targets Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.

At home in the opener, the Colts thoroughly outplayed the Jaguars, outgaining them 365-228 in total yards, but won just 14-12. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win and no-cover spot.

Miami’s key strength last season was ability to play mistake-free football, the question arises after going from 1-15 to 11-5 division champions in one season, are they possibly somewhere in between after turning the ball over four times last week. It should be noted the Dolphins started 0-2 last season and is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS against the Colts.

Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with a total of 42 at Sportsbook.com and they’ll face a Miami team that is 6-9 and awful 3-12 ATS at home during the regular season the last two seasons, which will be looking to snap a three-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. The Colts are 15-5 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Fins are 9-1 OVER off a road loss.

Indianapolis covers if they can force Miami to continue to make turnovers. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are noted for disrupting the quarterback and with an immobile target like Chad Pennington, could raise a great deal of havoc. It might be time to bag the “stretch” running play in the Colts offense. Manning seems to have a more difficult getting the ball to the backs and the offensive line hasn’t been able to sustain the blocks long enough for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to hit the holes. The runners appear better as one-cut-and-go backs. The Indy defense will see a true “wildcat” offense for the first time and must contain whatever elements and wrinkles the Dolphins might have in store. The Colts are 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its September road assignments and 15-8 ATS road chalk of three-points or less.

Miami covers if the offensive line establishes itself. Last week top pick T Jake Long was whipped repeatedly by Atlanta’s defense ends, in allowing two sacks and getting no push in the running game. The Colts front is better than the Falcons, meaning the Dolphins have to run the ball to set up play-action passes by Pennington and specialty packages. Miami’s back seven has to cover up Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, making Manning throw to receivers he’s unfamiliar with or dump-offs to running backs for short gains. Smack Addai early, since his enthusiasm for taking shots has waned since his rookie season. The Fins are 7-3 ATS taking on winning teams.

The matchup marks the very first Monday Night football game that was played on this exact date in 1970.

Monday Night Angles – Road favorites like the Colts are 13-3 ATS when favored by three to four points the last seven years. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS vs. non-division opponents, while Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home dog dating back 29 years.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Raiders need miracle as underdog

San Diego’s quest for a fourth consecutive AFC West title begins with a trip to Oakland, which finished three games behind the lackluster division winners with a record of 5-11 but managed four wins in 12 outings under Tom Cable, who was retained as head coach after replacing the fired Lane Kiffin.

The Raiders, a miserable 24-72 and 33-62-1 ATS over the last six seasons, haven’t won an opener since 2002 and lost a Week 1 Monday night game to Denver a year ago by a 27-point margin. They were swept by the Chargers, falling 28-18 at home in Kiffin’s finale, after leading by 15 at halftime and 34-7 on the road in the rematch.

Offseason headlines were nothing new for Oakland, which made a splash on draft day but didn’t spend foolishly on free agents. The big additions are wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (1-Maryland), offensive tackle Khalif Barnes (Jaguars) and defensive end Greg Ellis (Cowboys). The Raiders also acquired Richard Seymour this last week from New England and he’s been less than enthusiastic about wearing the Black and Silver after hearing about all the horror stories in Al Davis’ nuthouse.

Considering the Raiders ranked 29th in total offense and dead last in passing offense, and owner Al Davis’ need for speed, the selection of Heyward-Bey at No. 7 overall shouldn’t have created such an uproar. The fleet-footed rookie, along with Johnnie Lee Higgins, will allow strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell (13 touchdowns, eight interceptions) to let the pigskin fly. It should be noted Heyward-Bey has been dropping passes, which was his weakness coming out of Maryland. Oakland starts the season as 10-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 42 and they are 9-19-1 ATS as home underdogs.

While Russell completed only 53.8 percent of his passes, San Diego’s Philip Rivers (4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, league-best 105.5 rating) ranked among the leaders with a 65.3 success rate. Funny thing, though, two of Rivers’ three weakest games from an accuracy standpoint came against the Raiders last season. He went 24-for-47 versus Oakland with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

If Rivers comes anywhere close to his production from last season or surpasses it, the Chargers are likely to run away with the division. Their defense, under the direction of Ron Rivera since the midway point of last season, became more attack-oriented than read-and-react, and welcomes back linebacker Shawne Merriman from knee surgery. The unit has some question marks up front. Travis Johnson replaces Igor Olshansky (Cowboys) at left end, fifth-year right end Luis Castillo has yet to play up to his contract and tackle Jamal Williams, entering his 12th year, isn’t getting younger. Even so, it might not matter with San Diego having won 11 in a row over Oakland, covering the spread 10 times.

San Diego covers because they always do against the Raiders. The Chargers have covered seven straight at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, winning six times. San Diego has a number of edges, all related to talent. LaDainian Tomlinson could break back big against unsettled Oakland defensive front that was last against the run in 2008. Though Shawne Merriman missed last season due to injury, he’s shown no ill effects in the preseason and should expose Oakland at either offensive tackle position. The Raiders outside of CB Nnamdi Asomugha are inexperienced and unproven in the secondary, look for San Diego to attack. Lastly, make JaMarcus Russell beat you. Stack the middle against the run and force the former No.1 pick to make consistent throws to inconsistent wide receivers and score enough points to matter. Winning by two touchdowns should not be an issue for the Bolts against a sorry franchise that is 2-11 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Oakland covers if they shorten the game by effectively running the ball. Darren McFadden needs the ball in space to be most effective, which means quick pitches or screens to either side. Though the Chargers are big and powerful, they are not more than average in the speed category. Get them moving from side to side and possibly the Raiders can wear down the defense. Tight end Zach Miller needs 7-10 catches in this game, to keep the chains moving and Oakland has to score points of some kind every time they cross the 50-yard line. Defensively, play with a lot of energy and don’t get discouraged by a few big plays. Force field goals and keep Chargers out of the end zone. As a coach, Norv Turner is just 1-9-1 ATS in first division matchup. Execute the plan and THE RAIDERS are within five points with a chance to win late.

Monday Night Angles –Teams like Oakland with just one MNF appearance playing at home are 6-14 ATS as hosts. Road favorites of 10 or more points like San Diego are 1-6 ATS since 1999 on MNF.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.