2010 MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Entering its 64th year of gridiron competition, the MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE will once again play a balanced schedule, meaning each team will play eight conference games in 2010. Let’s hope the results are more balanced that last year when only two teams in the MAC West Division managed to finish the season with a winning record. This on the heels of the 2008 campaign when only Buffalo was on the plus side of the ledger inside the East Division.

This is definitely a league that is wide open and one that likes to mix things up. Seven different teams have appeared in the last five MAC Championship games while 11 different MAC schools have appeared in a bowl game in the last five seasons.

Finally, keep this note handy once the bowl games roll around: since the 2008 calendar year, MAC bowlers are 1-11 SU and 0-10-2 ATS!

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

AKRON – *6 / 9
TEAM THEME: GOOD YEAR
After suffering his fourth straight losing season, J.D. Brookhart was quickly bounced from town. Last year’s three-win season was the Zips’ lowest since 1997 and inevitably meant some rubber was going to meet the road. New HC Ron Ianello leaves his South Bend receivers coach gig and inherits the third youngest team in the nation: twenty-nine players from last season’s two-deep squad were either freshman or sophomores. Ianello does welcome back nine starters from a defense that has improved each of the last two seasons and he may be able to zip through the majority of his non-conference matchups. However, he’ll need to rely on all of his offensive prowess to repair an attack that regressed 96 YPG and averaged less than 20 points per contest if Akron hopes to rebound from last year’s fiasco. Look for the ball to bounce Ianello’s way in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kentucky (9/18)

BOWLING GREEN – 3 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOO GREEN TO BOWL
The Falcons were picked to finish 5th in the MAC East Division a year ago. After a 1-4 start the pundits appeared on target, but a 6-1 finish lifted the Falcons and rookie HC Dave Clawson to a winning campaign and a trip to the alleys. Another slow start might be in the offing as Clawson must replace 15 starters and 18 seniors from last year’s squad – including QB Tyler Sheehan, who accounted for 97% of the team’s passing yards since 2007 and star WR Freddie Barnes, who set an NCAA record with 155 receptions last year. This depleted roster must also deal with a schedule that finds them on the road for five of their first seven contests. With only five games taking place in Doyt Perry Stadium, a strong case for a reversal of fortune could be made this season. No Bowling for these Green Falcons in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Troy (9/4)

BUFFALO – 6 / 8
TEAM THEME: WINGING IT
After resisting tempting offers the previous year, a five-win season had Turner (Gill) putting on the burners and heading for Kansas. Jeff Quinn, a long-time assistant to Brian Kelly, takes over the reins. The veteran OC will be looking to install a new spread offense in upstate New York. Quinn, however, will need to find replacements at QB and the top two WR spots from an offense that averaged over 400 YPG. On the bright side, four offensive linemen are back and eight starters return from a defense that allowed a respectable 24 points and 343 yards per game. With four of their first six games in other pastures, the Bulls’ defense will need to lead the stampede and give Quinn’s offensive system time to gel. We’ll need to see more before we run and gun with these new-look Bulls.
PASS

KENT STATE – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: FLASH FORWARD
An 0-3 finish denied the Flashes a winning season for the first time since 2001. An offense that dropped 73 YPG and 7 PPG was the main culprit but it should turn into a strength for HC Doug Martin as nine starters return, including QB Spencer Keith who tossed for over 2,100 yards and 14 TD’s as a freshman in 2009. Keith will, once again, be hooking up with WR Tyshon Goode, who excelled in his freshman season while hauling in a team-leading 53 passes and 5 TD’s. The backfield is deep as four RB’s who have combined to rush for over 5,200 yards in their collegiate careers are back in the mix. If Kent can weather a storm that finds them on the road early and often, look for the Flashes to come up Golden in 2010. A year of experience and a season-ending schedule that finds them home for four of their final five games ensures no late-season collapse this year.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Ohio U (11/26) – *KEY off loss

MIAMI, OHIO – *8 / 9
TEAM THEME: ROCK THE CRADLE
Miami’s ‘Cradle of Coaches’ (Paul Brown, Carm Cozza, Paul Dietzel, Weeb Ewbank, Ara Parseghian, John Pont and Bo Schembechler) likely turned over in their graves after witnessing the Redhawks cough up a nation-high 32 giveaways to opponents last season. Injuries forced first-year HC Michael Haywood to turn to a bevy of freshmen and sophomores, resulting in a turnover-plagued, 1-11 season. Included in the Pampers’ parade was QB Zac Dysert, who passed for over 2,600 yards as a redshirt freshman. Haywood better have this group of toddlers ‘turnover trained’ as they leave their Oxford crib for seven games this season, including stops at Gainesville, Missouri and Cincinnati.
The feeling here is Haywood might throw a temper tantrum of his own before this season is said and done.
PLAY ON: vs. Kent St (10/2) – *KEY as dog

OHIO U – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: BOBBING AND WEAVING
We were as wrong as the day is long on our assessment of the Bobcats last year. Or at least on the SU and ATS scoreboards – and that’s what ultimately counts! It was our contention that OU would not improve on a 4-8 mark from 2008 without better defensive play and fewer mistakes. The defense did not improve at all while the offense regressed 50 YPG – yet the Bobbies won nine games and hit the alleys. We’ll press our bet in 2010, as teams that enjoyed great success without improving their numbers are normally a sure-fire disappointments the following season. In our defense, we turn to our highly popular Midweek Alert newsletter, which points out that the Bobcats were just 4-10 ‘In The Stats’ despite the 9-5 SU and 8-5 ATS marks in 2009. Outside of a trip to Columbus, the schedule doesn’t appear too daunting. However, after all, you can only ‘Bob’ and weave for so long.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Bowling Green (10/9)

TEMPLE – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE ‘EYES’ HAVE IT
MAC Coach of the Year, Al Golden, took the Owls to new heights last year as Temple enjoyed their first winning season since 1990, their first league title since 1967 and their first bowl appearance in 30 years. The news gets even better as 16 starters return to Philly, including conference defensive Player of the Year and league leader in sacks, DE Adrian Robinson. Nine of those starters, led by SR QB Vaughn Charlton and RB Bernard Pierce, who rushed for 1,361 yards and 16 TD’s as a true freshman, return to an offense that tallied 30 PPG last season. There’s plenty to like about this group and its coach. With a tough non-conference schedule, there may not be a lot of hooting early but it would be wise to keep both eyes on these Owls. The way we see it, the later in the season, the better for this nocturnal bunch.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Miami Oh (11/23)

West Division

BALL ST – *10 / 7
TEAM THEME: PARRISH THE THOUGHT
Could this be the year Stan Parrish (4-42 SU) finally shakes the enigma of being in over his head as an FBS head coach? The signs are there. Since 2005, the Cardinals have committed the 5th fewest turnovers (87) in the nation. The usually well-stocked Ball State offense returned only four starters last season, and it showed as the output dropped by 148 YPG. There’s no such dilemma this season, however, as the offense returns virtually intact, led by all-MAC RB MiQuale Lewis. Stan would be wise to rely on the 3rd all-time leading rusher in BSU history to carry the load if he wants to continue to man the Muncie sidelines. By season’s end, we’ll know if it’s either ‘Stan the Man’ or ‘Stan gets banned.’ One thing we know for sure – Parrish will have to learn how to beat .500 or greater opponents (1-28-1) if he doesn’t want the ‘Ball’ to drop any further.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Western Michigan (10/9)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN – 6 / 5
TEAM THEME: THE FEVOUR’S GONE
There’s no more ‘Fevour’ hanging around the Mt. Pleasant campus but new HC Dan Enos may still want to take a couple of aspirins. Not only has record-sitting QB Dan LeFevour left for the NFL, but also Antonio Brown and Bryan Anderson, the two most prolific WR’s in school history. The 1st-year HC takes over a program that won its seventh MAC title last year – the most of any school since joining the league in 1975. Thanks to LeFevour, Central Michigan won eight or more games each of the last four seasons and appeared in four straight bowl games. The Chippewas have never won eight or more games in five consecutive seasons and with a new coaching staff and signal caller, we’re betting ‘never’ triumphs once again. Let the Chips fall where they may – just be sure to stand clear.
PASS

EASTERN MICHIGAN – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: MAJORING IN ENGLISH
They weren’t speaking fluent English at EMU last season where the Eagles suffered through an 0-12 season. “There is no doubt that our players will be bigger, stronger, tougher and coached better than they were a year ago,” contends second-year HC Ron English. We certainly hope so. English thinks his Eagles will be much improved in 2010 and we tend to agree. Due to injuries and a lack of depth, 25 newcomers – including nine true freshmen – saw significant playing time last season. Our database is also keeping a close eye on this bunch, noting: winless teams who find themselves favored in any game the following season are 31-21 ATS since 1980, including 21-9 ATS when laying five or more points. That’s a lesson in Playbook 101. Now let’s see if English could get his message across.
PASS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS – *6 / 9
TEAM THEME: KILLING ‘EM SOFTLY
The Kill era is seemingly at a crossroads. While the third-year HC has guided Northern Illinois to a bowl in each of his first two seasons, both of those games ended in losses and all Kill has to show for his effort is a 13-13 record. In fact, his Huskies have yet to beat an opponent with a winning record (0-11). While the defense declined slightly in 2009, it still ranked tops in the MAC and 30th in the nation and remains the strength of the team. Nine return from that highly-rated unit but it did suffer a blow when DE Jake Coffman, the team leader in sacks, decided to skip his senior season. “We did lose some kids… some very good players,” said Kill. “But at the same time, we’ve had some in the program that are growing up. This is the best I’ve felt since I’ve been here.” We don’t want to be a killjoy but that feeling here is that the Dekalb bunch is growing restless.
PASS

TOLEDO – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: BOY WONDERS?
Holy Toledo, Beckman. The second-year head coach saw six true freshmen start at least two games in 2009, including three defensive backs. That’s one good reason to explain their 92nd-ranked pass defense. “We have nine seniors and only three who played all four years. So we need leaders to step up from junior, sophomore and even freshmen classes,” contends Beckman. The former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator probably didn’t sleep too well after seeing his defense stepped on for 38 PPG and over 400 yards of total offense. The young Rockets, though, did manage five wins thanks to an offense that ranked 13th in the nation. However, with just six starters back on each side of the ball and a non-conference schedule that includes three bowlers, it may take some time before Toledo sees lift-off. A fifth straight losing season is likely in the offing.
PLAY ON: vs. Bowling Green (11/17) – *KEY

WESTERN MICHIGAN – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: SPIN MOVES
The love affair in Kalamazoo is on the ropes. A 1-3 conclusion to the 2009 season denied the Broncos a second straight bowl bid and to that they can thank an offense and a defense that each slid 25 YPG. If 6th-year HC Bill Cubit hopes to keep the yo-yo working (alternating winning and losing seasons each of the four years), he’ll need to win every home game possible with three of his six road games against bowl teams – along with a visit to Notre Dame wedged in between! (Note: WMU is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine road games). To make matters worse, QB Tim Hiller has departed, having matched or broke every Broncos’ passing record along the way. Only four teams with winning records dot the schedule, so there’s a chance Cubit could play cupid in 2010.
PLAY ON: vs. Kent State (11/20)

Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends

Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.

Big East Conference

In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.

On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).

Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%).

Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).

A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.

FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.

Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Big 12 Conference
There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.

The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.

On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.

Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

Conference-USA

The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.

Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.

The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.

C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.

With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).

Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.

There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).

UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.

FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.

The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.

FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.

UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.

The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

Big West Conference
The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.

More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.

The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.

There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.

The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.

FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Big Ten Conference
For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.

There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).

FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.

Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.

LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Atlantic Coast Conference
ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.

UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.

How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.

Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.

Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.

The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

Mid-American Conference

FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.

The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.

The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.

OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

Southeastern Conference
The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.

Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.

In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.

Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.

UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).

In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference
UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).

Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.

Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.

The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total.

Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.

Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Don't blame us for Ball State and Western Michigan

For most of the season, the Broncos defense has been a liability allowing 28 points per game and ranking 107th in total defense, surrendering 437.3 yards per game. Ten days ago the defense as a group stepped up and forced six turnovers against Eastern Michigan and won handily 35-13 as 13-point favorites. They will attempt to generate the same kind of pressure and hard hitting against Ball State on ESPN2 MAC contest.

Western Michigan (5-6, 3-8 ATS) players after a long season, seem to understand finally what is needed. “I felt things pick up right from the beginning,” Broncos safety Jamail Berry said. “We just came out with the emphasis (that) we need turnovers. Anything’s possible from the D-line all the way back to the secondary. That’s just what we tried to do.”

The Broncos have not been a good cover team the last few years, sporting a 10-22 ATS record. Quarterback Tim Hiller has 98 career touchdown passes and two more ties the MAC’s all-time record and a victory keeps a glimmer of hope for a bowl invite at 6-6.

Ball State (1-10, 5-6 ATS) fell off the planet this season after playing in the conference championship game a season ago. The Cardinals suffered extensive losses on offense and it showed, averaging 18.9 points per game.

They also lost their coach Brady Hoke, who maybe knew what he was doing in getting out and taking San Diego State head job. Ball State made a curious hire in naming Stan Parrish as head coach. Though his credentials as assistant are excellent, coming into this position his record was 2-31-1 and has kept along same career path. After being blasted by Central Michigan 35-3 in final home game and passing for 105 yards, Ball State is 17-6 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last their game.

Bookmaker.com has Western Michigan as 11-point favorites with total 51.5 and the Broncos are 12-5 ATS in home season finales. Ball State is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.

This utterly fascinating (really?) MAC matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and Ball State is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight meetings.

A little Tuesday Night Football

It’s a weeknight in November, which must mean it’s time for Mid-American Conference Football. The league has enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2009 with better quality football. Central Michigan knocked off Michigan State and Northern Illinois punted Purdue among fine showings. This week several more MAC games will be televised as teams compete to determine who plays in the league’s championship game.

This is Ohio U’s last road game of the season and it has intentions of staying right where they are in the MAC East standings, hoping to setup all important matchup with Temple in last contest of the year. The Bobcats (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are 4-1 in conference action and trail the Owls who have yet to lose. Before then, the Bobcats have to avoid what almost befell them at Ball State, escaping with 20-17 win as 5.5-point favorites.

Ohio U. has been road warriors with 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. They hope that continue, since the last several years have been contrary to that information, being 8-13 and 6-15 ATS on the November road. The Bobcats offense is now more of a spread with “pistol” elements and as expected growing pain has been part of the process. They’ve averaged 315 yards against teams that allow 376 per game. Their biggest problems have been in the red zone, with a youthful offensive line and no true power backs.

Defensively, Ohio U has been strong, forcing 27 turnovers and giving the offense continual chances. Off their win at Ball State, they are 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last three seasons.

Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) is off painful last minute loss to Bowling Green 30-29 last Tuesday and is running out of reasons to stay motivated.

“It’s a tough loss, tough for our football team,” Buffalo coach Turner Gill said. “That’s why you have to play four quarters. We didn’t know how to finish the football game. Bowling Green did a good job and finished the football game.” After being MAC champions a season ago, the best Buffalo can hope for is .500 record if they win out.

The Bulls have gone thru a number of running backs this season due to injury and Jeffvon Gill, no relation to Buffalo’s coach, rushed for 172 last week against the Falcons in a relief role. The Bulls played mistake free football as week ago, yet is only 8-19 ATS in home games after a contest where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites with total of 45.The Bulls are 5-4 and 6-3 ATS in last nine meetings and have never been favored in 10 previous games vs. Ohio U until today. Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 OVER against teams with winning records. Ohio U. is 3-11-1 ATS as underdog of three or less points since 1997 and is 7-1 OVER in that role.

ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern live from University of Buffalo Stadium.

Conference Championship Info

The SEC was the innovator in developing a cash cow called the Conference Championship game back in 1992. The Southeastern Conference knew there customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in the confrontation. Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Nobody knew how the players would react, since this was a new concept. Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared with nothing to lose and took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after averaging surrendering only a 183 yards per game. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida and that game left such a weak impression on oddsmakers and the wagering public, #1 Miami-Fl. was an 8.5-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl for the national championship. Bama had gotten the nerves out of the way in the SEC title game and gave an overwhelming performance in destroying the top ranked Hurricanes 34-13.

This spawned other conferences to follow suit with mixed success in some cases, however no debating the excitement and discussion these games cause. Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC
The SEC will be playing it 17th championship game and returns to its roots with No. 1 Alabama facing what many believe is the best team in the country today in Florida. In the previous sixteen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 13 of the 16 games and has covered just seven times (7-8-1 ATS). For many college football fans this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2008. However, it is step one for the winner, moving to BCS title game and will likely be a favorite against whomever they play.

Past SEC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER

12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12
The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Coach John Makovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent the only three losses by the favored team in 12 tries. The underdog is 4-7-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 32.1, which includes Texas 70-3 shellacking of Colorado in 2005, the year they won the national championship. Seven of the 12 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The UNDER is on a streak of five in a row.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined in and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 11 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. Unbeaten Ball State adds some real excitement to this year’s encounter and is playing for the title for the first time matched against Buffalo, who is also making maiden voyage to this year’s event. Being the underdog is the better position in this match-up as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite 6-5 straight up. Following the same trail, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 6-2-1 ATS.

Past MAC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO (, ) 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC and Conference USA are the latest to engage in the fray in the last few years. The ACC has had severe attendance problems, not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville. They will change venues this year and try their luck in Tampa. The ACC has seen the favored teams lose outright two of three times, opening up more conjecture for this season. The matchup pits Boston College and Virginia Tech in a rematch of their 10/18 contest. This is the first ACC title game appearance for the Eagles. The Hokies are making their third trip in four years.

Past ACC Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA
Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered two-thirds of the contests. Last year the oddsmaker posted a 73-point total, hindering this contest from going Over for the first time in this defensively challenged conference. In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-2, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the nine affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
2/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER