Hawaii Bowl brings SMU full circle

Southern Methodist last played in a bowl game in 1984, and three years later was sanctioned with the “Death Penalty”. The Mustangs return to the same venue in Hawaii 25 years later, with much of the credit going to former Hawaii coach June Jones. While some of those on islands despise Jones for taking the money and leaving Hawaii, the facts were he did everything he could to stay and just wanted to be adequately compensated, since the U of H and BCS go together like Hawaiian weather and snow.

SMU (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) has seen Jones turn around a dormant program in just two years after having produced one winning season (1997) since feeling the wrath of the NCAA. Jones has manufactured his run-and-shoot offense in Dallas, that ranks 28th in passing nationally and has to be tugging on his lei thinking about 118th ranked Nevada pass defense to throw against. The Ponies are 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

SMU will face a Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS) team that was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 points per game after starting 0-3. The Wolf Pack are in a bowl game for a fifth straight year and are the first NCAA team to have three 1,000 rushers.

In retrospect, it’s unfathomable to consider Nevada was actually shutout by Notre Dame 35-0 in both teams season opener. How could a team with that much firepower on offense only gain 307 yards against what turned out to be porous Irish defense? It just proves things are not always as they first appear.

Nevertheless, two-thirds of the 1,000 yard club won’t be available, with Luke Lippincott out with injury and Vai Tuau an academic casualty. That leaves quarterback Colin Kaepernick to be the main focus of attention for SMU and he has delivered. The Wolf Pack is 11-3 ATS when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Nevada as 12.5-point favorite with total of 72.5. The Wolf Pack is 3-6 all-time in bowl games, covering the spread just once in six lined appearances. They were .500 against others playing in the postseason with 3-1 ATS mark. Nevada hasn’t won a bowl since outlasting Central Florida 49-48 in Hawaii in 2005.

With the ghosts of Eric Dickerson and Craig James lurking in the background (the old “Pony Express”), SMU earns first bowl bid in a quarter century, which ironically is the same bowl. The Mustangs are 4-6-1 and 2-2 ATS all-time. SMU is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference clashes, but is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

The total has intriguing dichotomy, with Nevada 10-2 OVER having won two out of their last three games and SMU 16-5 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Before making a decision either way, consider this Foxsheets system- Play UNDER in a bowl game if the non-conference participants are from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-10 L10Y)

It’s never made much sense why the Hawaii Bowl starts at 8:00 Eastern on Christmas Eve, since the games are typically four hour scoring marathons. Favorites and underdogs have alternated spread victories for the last five years, and based on that pattern, it would be the underdog’s turn to cover in 2009. This has been a very high scoring bowl series, with the winning team having surpassed the 35-point mark all but once since ’95 while averaging 44.9 point per game.

3DW Line – Nevada by 15

Can Nevada's Three-headed Monster upset Boise State?

The WAC title is on the line along with potentially a BCS berth in the Fiesta Bowl for Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS). After several beat downs by Boise State, Nevada has lost 69-67 in triple overtime and 41-34 the last two years to the Broncos. Are the Wolf Pack ready to pull the upset this season?

Since 1999, Boise State is 69-2 SU at home with 44-17 ATS record. Coach Chris Peterson is aware his defense allowed more yards than usual in a couple of games, but chalked them up to just contests that turned into shoot-outs his team won and covered handily. Another positive development is the Broncos red zone offense, which has been stellar in recent weeks after providing pedestrian results most of the season. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has been incredibly efficient, throwing 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions. The Broncos average 41.3 points per game and are 25-6 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight contests.

After starting the year slowly on offense, Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) has been molten in last eight games, averaging over 51 points per game. The Wolf Pack running game is the finest in the country at 373.2 yards per game, led by QB Colin Kaepernick and his running mates Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. During this eight-game winning streak, they have averaged 446.6 yards on the ground and posted 43 rushing touchdowns. They have to be encouraged the Broncos allowed 320 yards rushing to Fresno State and 514 total yards to Idaho. Nevada however is 2-8 ATS against ranked teams.

One aspect not being discussed, but is very important is the defenses, as Boise State ranks 15th nationally and Nevada 85th. With how efficient the Broncos are on offense, it would seem the only way the Wolf Pack stop them is by forcing turnovers. That thought process is a problem, since Moore and Boise State have committed 10 turnovers all season. Coach Peterson’s club is 10-2 ATS at home after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has seen Boise State go from 10-point favorites, all the way to 14 and now coming down again, with total of 70. Nevada’s explosive offense is 12-4 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game and 16-6 OVER as a road underdog.

Boise State is 9-0 and 8-1 ATS facing Nevada and is 37-19 against the spread as WAC favorite of 10 points or more.

This WAC mega-encounter begins at 10:15 Eastern on ESPN2.


Note-The System, Trend and Free Pick will return tomorrow.

Louisiana Tech at Nevada Preview

Nevada opens WAC play hosting Louisiana Tech in a televised tilt. The Wolf Pack (1-3, 1-3 ATS) were in desperate need of a win after starting 0-3 and in came in-state rival UNLV to Reno. Nevada’s offense had been struggling but finally showed their power routing the Rebels 63-28 as 6.5-point favorites.

How complete was the Wolf Pack victory? Consider for a moment, they had four turnovers, were penalized 15 (that’s correct) times and still managed to score 63 incredible points. That’s what happens when you total 763 yards of offense, of which 559 were on the ground, (not kidding) for an AVERAGE of a smidge over 10 yards per carry. UNLV was completely maladroit in trying to stop Nevada.

Louisiana Tech (2-2, 1-2 ATS) hadn’t exactly been sterling themselves, before playing Hawaii at home last week. The Bulldogs returned nine starters from offense that churned out 187 yards on the ground last season and thus far had looked anemic by comparison. With the help of a raucous home crowd and national cable audience, Louisiana Tech ran for 352 yards and completely controlled the Warriors in convincing 27-6 thumping as 4.5-point favorites.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Nevada as 10.5-point home favorites (up from opening 6.5), with total of 58 and they are 21-9 ATS as a home chalk. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick looked like the double threat he had been during his career last week and will seek to expand his game once again. Nevada is the more dynamic team in this matchup, however if they keep turning the ball over (14 times this season), they bring Louisiana Tech back into the game. The Wolf Pack are 17-10 ATS as WAC favorites the last five years.

The Bulldogs are making second straight appearance on the ESPN family of networks after Hawaii conflict and are 12-30 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. Louisiana Tech’s best chance is to create pressure on Kaepernick and raise those doubts he has felt this season. Defensive tackle D’Anthony Smith, an all-WAC candidate known his run-stopping ability, will have to be difference-maker to slow Nevada running game. The Bulldogs are 6-11 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

Louisiana Tech has fallen four straight times to Nevada (1-3 ATS) and will try and turn the tables on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern. The home team is 4-1 SU and ATS, with these teams averaging 72 point per game when convening, for 6-2 OVER mark.

Nevada needs Kaepernick and defense to play big

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame’s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.

Nevada’s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn’t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn’t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn’t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman’s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He’s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Missouri as seven-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada’s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.